Economic,institutional and technological uncertainties of emissions trading—a system dynamics modeling approach

System dynamics models are employed for analyzing the impact of different uncertainties on carbon emission trading–both on national and business levels. Economic, institutional and technological uncertainties significantly influence any country's benefits from emission permit trading. If a country participates in trading on the international market then the possible price range becomes the source of additional uncertainty. In the case of business investment decisions for implementing resource‐saving technology, our system dynamics model shows that the first‐mover investor will get significantly fewer advantages than his followers, which leads to delay in primary investment to the sector.     

Free allocation rules in the EU emissions trading system: what does the empirical literature show?

This paper analyses the rules for free allocation in the EU Emissions Trading System (EU ETS). The analysis draws on the empirical evidence emerging from two literature strands. One group of studies sheds light on the following questions: how efficient are free allocation rules in minimizing the risk of carbon leakage? Have they become more efficient over the trading periods? What are the technical limits to making them more efficient? Further: is firm behaviour affected by allowance allocation? Did specific provisions induce strategic behaviour with unintended effects? Studies from the second group estimate sectoral pass-through rates for the costs imposed by the EU ETS. Taking cost pass-through into account is necessary for properly targeting free allocation. The difficulty of accurately quantifying sectoral differences in cost pass-through ability, especially in manufacturing sectors (due to limited data availability and market heterogeneity), is the main hindrance to achieving further efficiency in allowance allocation. The new rules defined in the reform for Phase IV (2021–2030) nevertheless make some progress in this direction.

Key policy insights

• The difficulty of accurately quantifying sectoral differences in cost pass-through ability is the main hindrance to efficient free allocation in minimizing carbon leakage risk.

• In Phase IV (2021–2030), carbon leakage risk will be assessed more accurately thanks to: a) carbon intensity and trade intensity considered together through a combined indicator; b) possible use of more disaggregated data, and c) possible consideration of complementary qualitative assessments of abatement potential, market characteristics and profit margins.

• It is expected that benchmarked allocation introduced in Phase III (2013–2020) has induced additional emission abatement, but there is still a lack of empirical evidence.

     

Understanding carbon trading: Effects of delegating CO2 responsibility on organizations’ trading behaviour

The establishment of a carbon market assumes that there is an effective means of transforming price information into technical carbon reduction measures. However, empirical evidence reveals that the links between price information and carbon management strategies are far from obvious. To understand how delegating CO₂ responsibility affects CO₂ trading behaviour, this article proposes a neo-institutionalist approach to answering the question of why companies became sellers, buyers or a combination of both during phase I of the European Emissions Trading Scheme (EU ETS). Original data from a survey on companies that participated in this scheme were collected and analysed. It was assumed that the trading scheme offered two ways to delegate decisions regarding emissions trading: decoupling from technical knowledge and financialization (i.e. delegating to financial departments) or coupling using technicalization (i.e. delegating to manufacturing departments). The results support the hypothesis that a company that adopts a decoupling strategy is more likely to buy certificates to fulfil their emissions targets. Adopting a coupling strategy indicates that a company is more likely to become a seller, all else equal. Professional identity is the theoretical basis for this relationship. Delegating carbon management to different departments represents either a stronger coupling or a stronger decoupling from core technological processes.

Policy relevance

The transaction data from phase I of the EU ETS open new questions and possibilities regarding the reasons that drive selling and buying in companies. It is important to look not only at the traditional sources of transaction costs, but rather also at the reasons for these tensions. One important source is the professional education of the people in charge of the EU ETS. Tailored information that directly addresses the different professional backgrounds of managers working in both financial departments and more technical departments might help to lower these types of transaction costs. In today's context, important emitter countries, such as China and Korea, have launched their own emissions markets, copying many aspects of the EU ETS. For the positive development of these markets and as a way of establishing a global emissions market, these new schemes should learn from the EU ETS experience.     

The impact of ocean–atmosphere coupling on the predictability of boreal summer intraseasonal oscillation

The impact of ocean–atmosphere coupling on the simulation and prediction of the boreal summer intraseasonal oscillation (ISO) has been investigated by diagnosing 22-year retrospective forecasts using the Seoul National University coupled general circulation model (CGCM) and its atmospheric GCM (AGCM) forced with SSTs derived from the CGCM. Numerous studies have shown that the ocean–atmosphere coupling has a significant effect on the improvement of ISO simulation and prediction. Contrary to previous studies, this study shows similar results between CGCM and AGCM, not only in regard to the ISO simulation characteristics but also the predictability. The similarities between CGCM and AGCM include (1) the ISO intensity over the entire Asian-monsoon region; (2) the spatiotemporal evolution of the northward propagating ISO (NPISO); and (3) the potential and practical predictability. A notable difference between CGCM and AGCM is the phase relationship between precipitation and SST anomalies. The CGCM and observation exhibits a near-quadrature relationship between precipitation and SST, with the former lagging about two pentads. The AGCM shows a less realistic phase relationship. The similar structure and propagation characteristics of ISO between the CGCM and AGCM suggest that the internal atmospheric dynamics could be more essential to the ISO than the ocean–atmosphere interaction over the Indian monsoon region.     

The Regensburg Model: reference values for the (I)NDCs based on converging per capita emissions†

A core question still remains after the Paris Agreement: who receives how much of the remaining CO₂ budget (resource/burden/effort sharing), so that the increase in the global average temperature is kept to well below 2°C above pre-industrial levels? If converging per capita emissions serve as a possible answer to this question, the discussion focuses primarily on the approach ‘Contraction and Convergence’ (C&C). The Regensburg Model now offers a further option for the mathematical implementation of converging per capita emissions. The authors identify features common to C&C and differences from C&C. They show that, of the convergence models they examined, the Regensburg Model is the most favourable option for industrialized countries.

Policy relevance

In politics, the concept of converging per capita emissions is often accepted at the abstract level. Civil society in particular can then take politicians at their word wherever they take values calculated using the Regensburg Model as points of reference; then prosperous developed countries in particular whose nationally determined contributions do not come up even to these reference values will find it difficult to justify their contributions.     

The impact of precipitation on speed–flow relationships along a UK motorway corridor

Although the fundamental traffic diagram provides the characteristics of a typical road traffic speed–flow relationship, little consideration has been given to the impact of adverse weather conditions on the relationship and the subsequent impact on local speed–flow. For the first time, this study uses precipitation radar along with a state-of-the art traffic information system to ascertain the relationship between speed–flow and precipitation on a UK transport corridor at the local (junction to junction) scale. It is evident that precipitation causes a significant reduction in speed and maximum flow on many links of the corridor as well as a downward reduction in the overall speed-flow relationship. With increased instances of heavy precipitation predicted in the UK as a result of climate change, these findings highlight the subsequent impact on journey travel times and associated economic costs.     

The impact of solar activity on the 2015/16 El Ni?o event

最近的海洋表面温度和大气环流异常的数据表明此次2015/16厄尔尼诺事件正在快速衰退。一些研究者预测紧随的拉尼娜事件将在2016年夏季或早秋到来。从太阳活动对热带海洋表面温度的调制作用出发,作者研究了发生在太阳活动峰值年(2014)之后的2015/16厄尔尼诺事件的演变过程。统计和合成分析的结果表明,当厄尔尼诺Modoki指数滞后太阳黑子数两年时,二者存在显著的正相关。在过去的126年(1890–2015)里,每一个太阳活动峰值年之后的1–3年内均明确存在厄尔尼诺Modoki事件的演变过程。这说明可能在太阳活动峰值期,异常强的太阳活动有利于激发产生厄尔尼诺Modoki事件。自2014年以来,季节平均的海洋表面温度异常和风场异常的空间特征更像是两类厄尔尼诺事件的混合物(即东太平洋型厄尔尼诺和厄尔尼诺Modoki),其空间特征受到太阳活动的调控。因此,2015/16 El Ni?o事件中的厄尔尼诺Modoki组分可能是太阳活动的结果,其衰退速度比东太平洋型厄尔尼诺组分较慢。因此,在2016年下半年,微弱的海洋表面温度正异常可能持续存在于赤道中太平洋(日界线附近)和北美西边界附近。     

The future of the CDM: same same,but differentiated?

Policy-makers and scientists have raised concerns about the functioning of the Clean Development Mechanism (CDM), in particular regarding its low contribution to sustainable development, unbalanced regional and sectoral distribution of projects, and its limited contribution to global emission reductions. Differentiation between countries or project types has been proposed as a possible way forward to address these problems. An overview is provided of the different ways in which CDM differentiation could be implemented. The implications for the actors involved in the CDM are analysed, along with a quantitative assessment of the impacts on the carbon market, using bottom-up marginal abatement cost curves. The discounting of CDM credits, quota systems, or differentiated eligibility of countries could help to address several of the concerns raised. Preferential treatment may also make a limited contribution to achieving the aims of CDM differentiation by increasing opportunities for under-represented host countries. The impact on the carbon market appears to be limited for most options.     

The impact of eastern equatorial Pacific convection on the diversity of boreal winter El Niño teleconnection patterns

Climate Dynamics - It is widely recognized that no two El Niño episodes are the same; hence the predictable variations of the climate impacts associated with El Niño remain an open...     

The impact of soil moisture–atmosphere coupling on daily maximum surface temperatures in Southeastern South America

Based on a series of experiments conducted by two regional climate models (RCA4 and LMDZ) with and without soil moisture-atmosphere coupling, we investigate the role of soil moisture on the occurrence of surface air temperature extremes and its persistence in Southeastern South America. Our analysis reveals that both factors, soil moisture-atmosphere coupling and relatively drier soil conditions, enhance the temperature extremes. In addition, the existence of soil-atmosphere coupling and the associated soil moisture variability is crucial for the development of the extremes in SESA. The key role of soil-atmosphere coupling is also reflected in the intrinsic persistence of hot days, which is greater in simulations with interactive soil moisture than in those with prescribed soil conditions. In the absence of soil-atmosphere coupling, the imprint of the anomalous dry (and also wet) soil conditions on the intensity and persistence of hot days is weaker.

     

The impact of el Nino‐Southern oscillation on the temperature field over Canada: Research note

Abstract

The impact of the two phases of El Niño‐Southern Oscillation (ENSO), namely El Niño and La Niña, on the surface and lower tropospheric temperature fields over Canada is documented. Gridded surface temperature data for 91 years (1900–1990) and 500–1000 hPa thickness data for 49 years (1946–1994) have been analyzed statistically in the context of El Niño, La Niña and normal years.

Using a composite analysis, the present study conclusively demonstrates that significant positive surface temperature anomalies spread eastward from the west coast of Canada to the Labrador coast from the late fall to early spring (November through May) following the onset of El Niño episodes. The accompanying temperatures in the lower troposphere show a transition from the Pacific/North American (PNA) pattern to the Tropical/Northern Hemisphere (TNH) pattern over the North American sector during the same period. Conversely, significant negative surface temperature anomalies spread southeastward from the Yukon and extend into the upper Great Lakes region by the winter season following the onset of La Niña episodes. Furthermore, the lower tropospheric temperatures show a negatively‐phased PNA‐like pattern in early winter which weakens considerably by May of the following year. Thus, while western Canadian surface temperatures are influenced during both phases of ENSO, eastern Canadian surface temperature effects are found during the El Niño phase only. The impact of ENSO on the Canadian surface temperatures is the strongest during the winter season and nearly disappears by spring (April and May). The largest positive (negative) anomalies are found to be centred over two separate regions, one over the Yukon and the other just west of Hudson Bay in the El Niño (La Niña) years. Over western Canada, mean wintertime temperature distribution of the El Niño (La Niña) years is found to be shifted towards warmer (colder) values relative to the distribution of the normal years.

This study suggests the possibility of developing a long‐range forecasting technique for Canada using ENSO related indices.     

The impact of El Ni?o on South American summer climate during different phases of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation

In austral summer, the observed El Ni?o (EN) events during warm Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) phases (PDO(+)) exhibited large anomalous upper level wave patterns in response to larger Sea Surface Temperature (SST) anomalies in the Equatorial Pacific and Atlantic Oceans compared with SST anomalies in EN events during cold PDO phases (PDO(?)). The precipitation anomalies in PDO(+) EN are increased over Southeastern South America (SESA) associated with the intensification of the moisture flux convergence in this region. The PDO(?) EN events exhibit positive precipitation anomalies only over southern SESA, while negative anomalies were observed in the north. Downward motion and anomalous divergence over central eastern Brazil may have contributed to the weakening of the northwesterly moisture flux convergence associated with the South American Low Level Jet (SALLJ) over the subtropics. The extratropical cyclones showed higher frequency and lower central pressures in southern Brazil, Uruguay, northeastern Argentina, and Southwest Atlantic Ocean during the PDO(+) EN events compared with the PDO(?) EN events. Such increase in the frequency and intensity of cyclogenesis cases seems to be in accordance with the anomalous moisture flux convergence over the SESA and associated reduction in the Sea Level Pressure observed during PDO(+) EN events. In order to investigate the impact of a canonical El Ni?o event over South America under different PDO phases, two numerical experiments were done with an Atmospheric General Circulation Model. Global SST and ice sea fields average over years characterized by (a) PDO(+) and (b) PDO(?) were considered as climatologically fields, and a composite of anomalies of SST of all El Ni?o events observed in 1950?C1999 was added in the region 20oS?C20oN;120oW?C175oW of both ??climatologies.?? The differences in experiments suggest that a canonical EN may produce significant different anomalous atmospheric patterns associated with distinct PDO climatologies. The more significant differences are simulated over extreme northern and eastern Brazil. Additional numerical experiments isolating the observed variability of SST over several oceanic basins during different PDO phases will be conducted to study their particular role on the South American climate.     

Mediterranean drought fluctuation during the last 500 years based on tree-ring data

A 2.5 × 2.5° gridded summer (April–September) drought reconstruction over the larger Mediterranean land area (32.5°/47.5°N, 10°W/50°E; 152 grid points) is described, based on a network of 165 tree-ring series. The drought index used is the self-calibrated Palmer Drought Severity Index, and the period considered is 1500–2000. The reconstruction technique combines an analogue technique for the estimation of missing tree-ring data with an artificial neural network for optimal non-linear calibration, including a bootstrap error assessment. Tests were carried out on the various sources of error in the reconstructions. Errors related to the temporal variations of the number of proxies were tested by comparing four reconstructions calibrated with four different sized regressor datasets, representing the decrease in the number of available proxies over time. Errors related to the heterogeneous spatial density of predictors were tested using pseudo-proxies, provided by the global climate model ECHO-G. Finally the errors related to the imperfect climate signal recorded by tree-ring series were tested by adding white noise to the pseudo-proxies. Reconstructions pass standard cross-validation tests. Nevertheless tests using pseudo-proxies show that the reconstructions are less good in areas where proxies are rare, but that the average reconstruction curve is robust. Finally, the noise added to proxies, which is by definition a high frequency component, has a major effect on the low frequency signal, but not on the medium frequencies. The comparison of the low frequency trends of our mean reconstruction and the GCM simulation indicates that the detrending method used is able to preserve the long-term variations of reconstructed PDSI. The results also highlight similar multi-decadal PDSI variations in the central and western parts of the Mediterranean basin and less clear low frequency changes in the east. The sixteenth and the first part of the seventeenth centuries are characterized by marked dry episodes in the west similar to those observed in the end of the twentieth century. In contrast, the eighteenth and nineteenth centuries (Little Ice Age) are characterized by dominant wet periods. In the eastern part of the Mediterranean basin the observed strong drought period of the end of the twentieth century seems to be the strongest of the last 500 years.     

Evaluation of a climate simulation in Europe based on the WRF–NOAH model system: precipitation in Germany

The Weather Research and Forecast (WRF) model with its land surface model NOAH was set up and applied as regional climate model over Europe. It was forced with the latest ERA-interim reanalysis data from 1989 to 2008 and operated with 0.33° and 0.11° resolution. This study focuses on the verification of monthly and seasonal mean precipitation over Germany, where a high quality precipitation dataset of the German Weather Service is available. In particular, the precipitation is studied in the orographic terrain of southwestern Germany and the dry lowlands of northeastern Germany. In both regions precipitation data is very important for end users such as hydrologists and farmers. Both WRF simulations show a systematic positive precipitation bias not apparent in ERA-interim and an overestimation of wet day frequency. The downscaling experiment improved the annual cycle of the precipitation intensity, which is underestimated by ERA-interim. Normalized Taylor diagrams, i.e., those discarding the systematic bias by normalizing the quantities, demonstrate that downscaling with WRF provides a better spatial distribution than the ERA interim precipitation analyses in southwestern Germany and most of the whole of Germany but degrades the results for northeastern Germany. At the applied model resolution of 0.11°, WRF shows typical systematic errors of RCMs in orographic terrain such as the windward–lee effect. A convection permitting case study set up for summer 2007 improved the precipitation simulations with respect to the location of precipitation maxima in the mountainous regions and the spatial correlation of precipitation. This result indicates the high value of regional climate simulations on the convection-permitting scale.     

Emissions from Russian domestic civil aviation in 2000–2012 and integrated assessment of their impact on the climate system

Emissions from Russian domestic civil aviation for the period of 2000–2012 are assessed for the following gases: carbon dioxide, methane, nitrous oxide, carbon monoxide, nitrogen oxides, and sulfur dioxide. The integrated assessment of their impact on the climate system is performed using the values of the global warming potential. The CO₂ equivalent was used as a common measure of emissions. It is established that the modern impact of Russian civil aviation on the Earth climate is insignificant.     

The Effect of Topography on Quasi-Geostrophic Frontogenesis

This paper improves Bannon's work on the quasi-geostrophic frontogenesis in a horizontal deformation field. By setting the lower boundary condition for the equation of potential temperature on the realistic topography instead of on z = 0, a general solution for the temperature field is derived after applying conformal mapping to the equation for the potential temperature, the vertical velocity and divergence field are also calculated. The general characteristics for the frontogenetic process still are frontolytic for warm front and frontogenetic for cold front in downstream of a mountain and the reverse is true upstream of a mountain, but more fine spatial structure of the temperature field and frontogenetic characteristics than Bannon's are obtained near surface because of the treatment of lower boundary condition. It is concluded that the frontogenetic characteristics are related to the translating speed of the deformation field with respect to the topography.     

The sources and transport of iron in the North Paci?c and its impact on marine ecosystems

微量元素铁是浮游植物生长所必需的营养元素,对于促进海洋初级生产力和增加海洋吸收二氧化碳的能力等具有重要作用。相对于世界上其他海域,铁限制使得北太平洋成为典型的高营养盐、低叶绿素(HNLC)区域。陆源铁主要通过河流输入和大气沉降进入海洋;海洋中垂直混合等物理过程也是输送生物可利用铁进入上层海洋的重要过程。目前,随着人类污染的加剧,人类活动排放的铁对海洋生态系统的影响也变得更加显著。为了研究铁循环过程及其对北太平洋海洋生态系统的影响,以国家自然科学基金资助的"北太平洋铁的来源与传输及其对上层海洋生态系统的影响"为依托,该项目将主要关注三个重要科学问题:(1)北太平洋上层生物可利用铁的主要来源是什么?(2)海洋中铁络合配体的循环会对北太平洋上层海洋生态系统产生怎样的影响?(3)未来全球变化对铁循环及上层海洋生态系统的可能影响是什么?项目将对铁在当前和未来海洋酸化和物理环境变化背景下的分布特征及其对海洋生态系统产生的影响进行研究。项目研究结果有望加深我们对北太平洋海洋生态系统的认识和理解,实现对未来北太平洋生态系统变化趋势的预测。