Modelling the compliance of crustal rock—II. Response to temporal changes before earthquakes

There have been several claims that seismic shear waves respond to changes in stress before earthquakes. The companion paper develops a stress-sensitive model (APE) for the behaviour of low-porosity low-permeability crystalline rocks containing pervasive distributions of fluid-filled intergranular microcracks, and this paper uses APE to model the behaviour before earthquakes. Modelling with APE shows that the microgeometry and statistics of distributions of such fluid-filled microcracks respond almost immediately to changes in stress, and that the behaviour can be monitored by analysing seismic shear-wave splitting. The physical reasons for the coupling between shear-wave splitting and differential stress are discussed.
In this paper, we extend the model by using percolation theory to show that large crack densities are limited at the grain-scale level by the percolation threshold at which interacting crack clusters lead to pronounced increases in rock-matrix permeability. In the simplest formulation, the modelling is dimensionless and almost entirely constrained without free parameters. Nevertheless, APE modelling of the evolution of fluid-saturated rocks under stress reproduces the observed fracture criticality and the narrow range of shear-wave azimuthal anisotropy in crustal rocks. It also reproduces the behaviour of temporal variations in shear-wave splitting observed before and after the 1986, M = 6, North Palm Springs earthquake, Southern California, and several other smaller earthquakes.
The agreement of APE modelling with a wide range of observations confirms that fluid-saturated crystalline rocks are stress-sensitive and respond to changes in stress by critical fluid-rock interactions at the microscale level. This means that the effects of changes in stress and other parameters can be numerically modelled and monitored by appropriate observations of seismic shear waves.     

Shear-wave anisotropy: spatial and temporal variations in time delays at Parkfield, Central California

Shear-wave splitting is analysed on data recorded by the High Resolution Seismic Network (HRSN) at Parkfield on the San Andreas fault, Central California, during the three-year period 1988-1990. Shear-wave polarizations either side of the fault are generally aligned in directions consistent with the regional horizontal maximum compressive stress, at some 70° to the fault strike, whereas at station MM in the immediate fault zone, shear-wave polarizations are aligned approximately parallel to the fault. Normalized time delays at this station are found to be about twice as large as those in the rock mass either side. This suggests that fluid-filled cracks and fractures within the fault zone are elastically or seismically different from those in the surrounding rocks, and that the alignment of fault-parallel shear-wave polarizations are associated with some fault-specific phenomenon.
Temporal variations in time delays between the two split shear-waves before and after a M_L = 4 earthquake can be identified at two stations with sufficient data: MM within the fault zone and VC outside the immediate fault zone. Time delays between faster and slower split shear waves increase before the M_L = 4 earthquake and decrease near the time of the event. The temporal variations are statistically significant at 68 per cent confidence levels. Earthquake doublets and multiplets also show similar temporal variations, consistent with those predicted by anisotropic poroelasticity theory for stress modifications to the microcrack geometry pervading the rock mass. This study is broadly consistent with the behaviour observed before three other earthquakes, suggesting that the build-up of stress before earthquakes may be monitored and interpreted by the analysis of shear-wave splitting.     

哈尔滨市城乡结合部不透水面时空变化及驱动力分析

本文选取哈尔滨市城乡结合部为研究区,以1984年、1993年、2002年和2010年的TM影像数据为数据源,利用混合像元分解方法提取了哈尔滨市城乡结合部的不透水面信息。分析了不透水面的时空变化特征。选取坡度、坡向、DEM、距河流距离、距高速公路距离、距铁路距离、距主要路距离和距1984年城区距离8个因子,利用增强回归树法进一步分析了1984-2010年哈尔滨市城乡结合部不透水面扩张的主要影响因素。结果表明：1984年哈尔滨市城乡结合部不透水面所占比例为3.9%、1993年为6.6%、2002年为9.0%、2010年为16.52%。高速公路、铁路、主要路等交通要素带动周边地区的发展,从而导致道路沿线城市扩张速度较快。     

Spatial and temporal variation of the urban impervious surface and its driving forces in the central city of Harbin

Associated with the rapid economic development of China, the level of urbanization is becoming a serious concern. Harbin, the capital city of Heilongjiang Province, China and one of the political, economic, cultural, and transportation centers of the northeastern region of China, has experienced rapid urbanization recently. To examine the spatial patterns of long-term urbanization and explore its driving forces, we employed the impervious surface fraction derived from remote sensing image as a primary indicator. Specifically, urban impervious surface information for the central city of Harbin in 1984, 1993, 2002, and 2010 was extracted from Landsat Thematic Mapper image using a Linear Spectral Mixture Analysis (LMSA). Then, the spatial and temporal variation characteristics and the driving factors of percent impervious surface area (ISA) changes were analyzed throughout this 26-year period (1984 to 2010). Analysis of results suggests that: (1) ISAs in the central city of Harbin constantly increased, particularly from 1993 to 2010, a rapid urbanization period; (2) the gravity center of impervious surface area in the central city was located in Nangang District in 1984, moving southeast from 1984 to 1993, northwest from 1993 to 2002, and continuing toward the southeast from 2002 to 2010; and (3) the urban growth of the central city can be characterized as edge-type growth.     

Fractal structure and characteristic scale in the distributions of earthquake epicentres, active faults and rivers in Japan

Using a box-counting method, we examined the fractal structures of the spatial distributions of three geological systems in Japan, namely those of earthquake epicentres, active faults, and rivers. Our results show that, in the scale range from 1 to 100  km, all geological systems have a common characteristic scale of ~13  km, which divides the spatial distribution into two bands: a smaller scale r < 13  km and larger scale r > 13  km (where r is the box size). In both bands, the three systems obey a power law distribution, and therefore it is proposed that all geological systems have a band-limited fractal structure. Since the characteristic scale of ~13  km is in agreement with the depth of the brittle–ductile transition zone of the crust, we suggest that it is a common feature of the heterogeneity of the crust.     

内蒙古草原NPP时空变化及驱动力

植被净初级生产力(NPP)及驱动力分析是全球变化研究的核心内容.以1982-2015年内蒙古草原为研究对象,基于GIMMS NDVI3g、ERA5气象和草原类型数据,采用CASA模型生成年草原NPP.综合运用趋势分析、偏相关、复相关及残差分析法探讨1982-2015年草原NPP变化趋势,并定量确定气候因子和人类活动对草...     

博格达峰地区气候变化特征及其对冰川变化的影响

20世纪中叶以来,随着全球变暖加剧,中国冰川普遍发生了退缩,对局地人民生活、生存环境及社会经济产生了深刻的影响,对位于西北干旱区的博格达峰地区尤为突出.本文首先采用趋势分析、突变检验和小波变换等方法对研究区周边气温、降水进行研究,同时应用Landsat l-4、5、7MSS、TM/ETM+影像分析1972-2013年博格达峰区冰川变化特征,在此基础上系统探讨冰川变化与该区气候变化之间的响应关系.结果表明:①1960-2013年研究区气温、降水变化倾向分别为0.19℃/10 a和12.4 mm/l0 a;年平均气温在1990年前后存在显著突变,年降水量在1985年前后存在突变.气温主要表现为8～10 a的周期,降水周期性较差.目前处于气温偏高、降水偏少期;②1972-2013年冰川面积减少46.71±1.32 km2,年均退缩率为0.66％±0.02％,冰川退缩趋势明显.其中1972-1990年,冰川年均退缩率为0.44％±0.03％;近20年来冰川退缩加剧,年均退缩率达到0.78％±0.09％;③通过分形理论对研究区冰川空间结构特征分析表明,预计未来冰川消融率将趋于稳定,但仍处于较高状态;④对比中国西部各地区冰川的变化,发现该地区冰川退缩和其他区域退缩速率相吻合;⑤1990年之前博格达峰地区冰川变化受温度和降水共同控制,1990年之后冰川退缩主要由气温上升引起.     

Electrical conductivity and crustal structure beneath the central Hellenides around the Gulf of Corinth (Greece) and their relationship with the seismotectonics

A deep magnetotelluric sounding (MTS) investigation in the western part of the Gulf of Corinth has revealed a complex electrical image of the crustal structure. The geotectonic structure of the Parnassos unit and the Transition zone in the central Hellenides, overthrusting the Pindos zone both towards the west and towards the south, has been clearly identified by its higher resistivity and its intrinsic anisotropy related to the N–S strike of the Hellenides range. Subsequent N–S extension of the Gulf introduced another heterogeneous anisotropy characteristic that corresponds to E–W-trending normal faults on both sides of the Gulf. The 2-D modelling of the MTS results reveals the existence of a relatively conductive layer about 4 km thick at a depth greater than 10 km in the middle crust. It corresponds to a ductile detachment zone suggested by microseismic and seismic studies ( King et al . 1985 ; Rigo et al . 1996 ; Bernard et al . 1997a ). It may be attributed to the phyllite series lying between the allochthonous Hellenic nappes and the autochthonous Plattenkalk basement. Towards the east, under the Pangalos peninsula, approaching the internal Hellenides, the detachment zone could root deeply into the lower crust.
Some strong local electrical anomalies are observed, reaching the conductive layer in the middle crust, such as that under the Mamousia fault and under the front of the overthrust of the Transition zone on the Pindos zone. Other anomalies affect only the shallower zones such as that beneath the Helike fault and in the Psaromita peninsula. These shallower anomalies provide complementary information to the study of spatial and temporal variations of the seismic anisotropy in relation to the short- and long-term tectonic activity of the Gulf ( Bouin et al . 1996 ; Gamar et al . 1999 ).     

1979~2005年青藏高原位势高度场变化趋势的时空特征

利用NCEP/NCAR位势高度再分析资料分析了1979~2005年青藏高原及其邻近地区30hPa、100hPa、300hPa和500hPa位势高度场变化趋势的时空特征。研究表明:(1)1979~2005年青藏高原区域平均位势高度场在对流层中层存在上升趋势,且主要发生在冷半年;随着等压面的升高,高度场上升趋势减弱;到平流层高度场呈显著降低趋势,且主要发生在暖半年。(2)从空间上看,平流层位势高度场年平均变化整体呈显著降低趋势,大致呈纬向分布,南部降低趋势强于北部,特别是高原东南、孟加拉湾北部降低趋势最强;对流层中层位势高度场变化趋势以上升为主,高原东北部上升趋势尤其显著。(3)尽管与高原各层位势高度值本身相比,变化趋势是一个小量,但国内外不同区域及不同空间尺度的研究都发现有类似现象,故对此应给予重视。今后应进一步加强青藏高原位势高度场时空变化趋势的驱动机制、影响及其对全球变暖的区域响应研究。(4)1979年以来NCEP/NCAR位势高度再分析资料用于青藏高原及其邻近地区的气候变化研究是有效的。     

The transition from subduction to continental collision: crustal structure in the North Canterbury region, New Zealand

The North Canterbury region marks the transition from Pacific plate subduction to continental collision in the South Island of New Zealand. Details of the seismicity, structure and tectonics of this region have been revealed by an 11-week microearthquake survey using 24 portable digital seismographs. Arrival time data from a well-recorded subset of microearthquakes have been combined with those from three explosions at the corners of the microearthquake network in a simultaneous inversion for both hypocentres and velocity structure. The velocity structure is consistent with the crust in North Canterbury being an extension of the converging Chatham Rise. The crust is about 27 km thick, and consists of an 11 km thick seismic upper crust and 7 km thick seismic lower crust, with the middle part of the crust being relatively aseismic. Seismic velocities are consistent with the upper and middle crust being composed of greywacke and schist respectively, while several lines of evidence suggest that the lower crust is the lower part of the old oceanic crust on which the overlying rocks were originally deposited.
The distribution of relocated earthquakes deeper than 15 km indicates that the seismic lower crust changes dip markedly near 43S. To the south-west it is subhorizontal, while to the north-east it dips north-west at about 10. Fault-plane solutions for these earthquakes also change near 43S. For events to the south, P -axes trend approximately normal to the plate boundary (reflecting continental collision), while for events to the north, T -axes are aligned down the dip of the subducted plate (reflecting slab pull). While lithospheric subduction is continuous across the transition, it is not clear whether the lower crust near 43S is flexed or torn.