Dynamics of climate extremes in northern Eurasia in the late 20th century

Changes in climatic parameters and in temperature and precipitation extremes in northern Eurasia in the late 20th century are analyzed. A spatial distribution of temperature and precipitation anomalies and of a set of indices of climate extremes is presented. Changes in climate extremes show a tendency toward a milder climate, mainly in winter. At the same time, the frost-free period has substantially decreased in the eastern, northern, and central parts of European Russia. In some regions during summer, there is an increase in the frequency of extreme events such as heavy rains, droughts, and sharp cooling. It is shown that the geographic pattern of present-day climate anomalies is linked to variations in the large-scale atmospheric circulation. The main mechanism of the current warming in northern Eurasia is a winter intensification of zonal flow linked to the increased frequency of positive anomalies of the North Atlantic Oscillation index.     

20 世纪热带海洋海表面温度年际变化的特征

利用Hadley中心海冰和海表面温度资料集Had ISST和美国国家海洋大气管理局的扩展重建海温(ERSST)海表面温度(sea surface temperature,SST)观测数据,结合政府间气候变化专门委员会(Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change,IPCC)中CMIP3(Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 3)的24个耦合模式的模拟结果,通过经验正交函数(EOF)分解等方法,对20世纪热带海洋在的SST年际变化进行了分析。结果表明,20世纪热带海洋年际变化的主要规律是ENSO信号,且有持续增强的趋势;热带海盆间存在显著的SST梯度,其长期变化与热带东太平洋显著相关。本文结论有利于理解在全球变暖背景下,海盆间的相互作用对赤道海域气候改变的影响。     

Regional structure of surface-air temperature fluctuations in northern Eurasia in the latter half of the 20th and early 21st centuries

The first empirical orthogonal functions (EOF1s) of surface-air temperature fluctuations for Russia and its neighboring states within the period 1950–2005 are analyzed. The spatial distribution of the EOF1, the first principal components (PC1s) of the observed air temperature (averaged over the summer, July, December–March, and individual winter months), and their time variations (including trend parameters, some spectral characteristics, and the quantitative indices of relation to circulation indices (on the basis of multiple step-by-step regression)) are considered. Significant seasonal differences have been revealed: the winter air-temperature fluctuations are characterized by a higher (when compared to summer) spatial coherence, especially in the latitudinal direction. The EOF1 of the winter air temperature (averaged over December–March) describes its fluctuations for almost all of Russia; in this case, no less than 70% of the PC1 variability is due to variations in several circulation indices; the main contribution (60%) is made by both the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and Scandinavian (SCAND) indices. On the whole, over the periods 1951–2005 and 1971–2005, the NAO contribution exceeds the SCAND contribution to the winter temperature variability; the NAO is associated with a more rapid increase in air temperature in 1968–1997 and with the 1971–2005 trend. In 1951–1970 the main contribution to air temperature fluctuations was made by SCAND; the SCAND contribution exceeds the NAO contribution in the periods 1951–2005 and 1971–2005. The 1971–2005 and 1968–1997 temperature trends are completely described by variations in the NAO (70%) and SCAND (30%) indices for January and February.     

Annual and interannual variability in the South-East Atlantic during the 20th century

Long time-series of sea surface temperature (SST) and pseudo wind stress (τ) in six areas in the South-East Atlantic are analysed as possible inputs into fisheries models. The areas encompass oceanic and coastal regimes. A clear seasonal signal is evident in all areas, with an amplitude in SST of 3–4°C in the upwelling areas and 5°C farther offshore and on the Agulhas Bank. Warming lags in the north and offshore by 1–2 months. Monthly variability is highest in the upwelling areas. An increasing trend in SST is suggested in all areas, the post-World War II era being about 1,0°C warmer than earlier periods. Some coherence occurs between areas at times, although at other times the anomalies are distinctly out of phase. There is a suggestion of an upward trend in the equatorward wind stress in some offshore areas after 1964, with a sharp change in 1975. Benguela Niños are evident in the environmental record and have a periodicity of around 10 years.     

The analysis of beach profile changes using Dean's method and empirical orthogonal functions

Sea bottom changes in the cross-shore direction have been analysed. The cross-shore profile, as a major factor of beach configuration, has been presented schematically as a superposition of a basic curve reflecting the mean layout and slope of the shore given by Dean's function and superimposed various bars, troughs, berms, etc. depicting local characteristic features of the profile.The local features of the profile have been analysed by use of one- (1-D) and two-dimensional (2-D) empirical orthogonal functions.On the basis of field observations and measurements the parameter A has been presented as a function of time. Three time scales have been distinguished (short, seasonal and long-term) with respect to which more or less regular changes of the parameter A occur. The modified parameter A was applied to two different field sites, namly Lubiatowo, Baltic Sea (Poland) and Gold Beach, Black Sea (Bulgaria). It has been found that in extreme cases the parameter A can vary in time by a factor of two, or more, for the same grain size distribution.     

20世纪南极菲尔德斯半岛毛皮海豹食谱比例变化的同位素混合模型比较分析

稳定同位素比值分析已成功用于示踪动物的食物来源研究,近年来已发展了多个同位素混合模型用于计算混合物中多来源物质的组成比例。本文以过去百年来南极菲尔德斯半岛南极毛皮海豹(Arctocephalus gazella)毛发的C、N同位素数据为基础,运用同位素混合模型中的欧几里得距离法、线性模型和贝叶斯模型进行计算、分析和比较,得到毛皮海豹食谱中南极磷虾(Euphausia superb)、南极电灯鱼(Electrona antarctica)和尼氏裸灯鱼(Gymnoscopelus nicholsi)所占比例随时间的变化趋势。各模型计算得出的结果可分为两组,分别是欧几里得距离法公式(1)和(2)的结果,表现为近百年来毛皮海豹食谱中Euphausia superb比例与其毛发稳定N同位素比值呈同步上升的趋势;第二组为欧几里得距离法公式(3)、线性模型和贝叶斯模型的结果,Euphausia superb比例与毛皮海豹毛稳定N同位素比值呈反相关关系。综合对比研究区域气候、海冰环境变化背景和已有的南极磷虾种群密度调查资料分析,第二组模型结果与实际情况较为相符,可用于讨论食物比例的时间变化趋势。近百年来,菲尔德斯半岛毛皮海豹食谱中Euphausia superb的比例显著下降,很可能是由于区域气候快速变暖和海冰的消退造成的。本文的计算结果指示西南极半岛气候变暖已显著影响到区域海洋食物链变化。     

多尺度耦合经验正交分解法反演海洋次表层温盐结构

针对提升利用卫星观测海面信息重构三维温盐场精度的问题, 本文提出了一种基于多尺度耦合正交分解的三维温盐场重构方法。该方法利用多尺度耦合正交分解对历史温盐剖面进行从大尺度到小尺度的迭代分解, 以分层提取不同尺度三维温盐场的特征信息, 然后分别建立海洋表面卫星观测与不同尺度的三维温盐场特征信息的重构模型, 从而达到三维温盐场重构的目的。本文分别利用多尺度耦合正交分解法与单层正交分解法进行三维温盐场重构, 结果显示, 多尺度耦合正交分解优于单层正交分解法, 且随着分解的层次不断细化, 重构温盐场的精度及其垂直梯度精度均呈现明显的提升, 其中组合4精度提升程度最高, 分别提升了25.57%和27.58%; 同时, 对比HYCOM模式数据, 多尺度耦合正交分解重构方法能有效地捕捉次表层海洋的空间特征信息。总体上, 本文耦合经验正交分解法反演的温盐场与Argo温盐场偏差较小, 反演精度较好, 在空间分布上趋于一致。     

Changes in Dogger Bank macrofauna communities in the 20th century caused by fishing and climate

The macrofauna communities on the Dogger Bank (North Sea) from the 1920s, the 1950s and the 1980s to the 2000s were compared and identified five communities with similar spatial distribution throughout the 20th century. The abundance of dominant species in the five communities varied with time. Most obvious in the 1950s was the loss of the extensive Spisula and Mactra patches, which covered most of the shallow parts of the Bank in the 1920s. Since the 1980s, they have been found only as juveniles. The biological regime shift in the late 1980s caused an increase in macrofauna abundance, species numbers, diversity and southern species in most of the communities. The climate regime shift in 2001 had opposite effects in which the abundance, species numbers, diversity and southern species decreased in most of the communities. The increase in interface-feeding species and the decrease in sand-licking amphipods in the 2000s especially in the shallow Bank Community give evidence for climate driven changes in water masses, currents, storms, turbidity and food availability via planktonic or benthic primary production. Both fishing impact and climate change are hypothesised as explaining the changes in the Dogger Bank macrofauna communities.     

Spatial and temporal structure of Tropical Pacific interannual variability in 20th century coupled simulations

Tropical Pacific interannual variability is examined in nine state-of-the-art coupled climate models, and compared with observations and ocean analyses data sets, the primary focus being on the spatial structure and spectral characteristics of El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO). The spatial patterns of interannual sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies from the coupled models are characterized by maximum variations displaced from the coast of South America, and generally extending too far west with respect to observations. Thermocline variability is characterized by dominant modes that are qualitatively similar in all the models, and consistent with the “recharge oscillator” paradigm for ENSO. The meridional scale of the thermocline depth anomalies is generally narrower than observed, a result that can be related to the pattern of zonal wind stress perturbations in the central-western equatorial Pacific. The wind stress response to eastern equatorial Pacific SST anomalies in the models is narrower and displaced further west than observed. The meridional scale of the wind stress can affect the amount of warm water involved in the recharge/discharge of the equatorial thermocline, while the longitudinal location of the wind stress anomalies can influence the advection of the mean zonal temperature gradient by the anomalous zonal currents, a process that may favor the growth and longer duration of ENSO events when the wind stress perturbations are displaced eastwards. Thus, both discrepancies of the wind stress anomaly patterns in the coupled models with respect to observations (narrow meridional extent, and westward displacement along the equator) may be responsible for the ENSO timescale being shorter in the models than in observations. The examination of the leading advective processes in the SST tendency equation indicates that vertical advection of temperature anomalies tends to favor ENSO growth in all the CGCMs, but at a smaller rate than in observations. In some models it can also promote a phase transition. Longer periods tend to be associated with thermocline and advective feedbacks that are in phase with the SST anomalies, while advective tendencies that lead the SST anomalies by a quarter cycle favor ENSO transitions, thus leading to a shorter period.     

Influence of the ocean surface temperature and sea ice concentration on regional climate changes in Eurasia in recent decades

Numerical experiments with the ECHAM5 atmospheric general circulation model have been performed in order to simulate the influence of changes in the ocean surface temperature (OST) and sea ice concentration (SIC) on climate characteristics in regions of Eurasia. The sensitivity of winter and summer climates to OST and SIC variations in 1998–2006 has been investigated and compared to those in 1968–1976. These two intervals correspond to the maximum and minimum of the Atlantic Long-Period Oscillation (ALO) index. Apart from the experiments on changes in the OST and SIC global fields, the experiments on OST anomalies only in the North Atlantic and SIC anomalies in the Arctic for the specified periods have been analyzed. It is established that temperature variations in Western Europe are explained by OST and SIC variations fairly well, whereas the warmings in Eastern Europe and Western Siberia, according to model experiments, are substantially (by a factor of 2–3) smaller than according to observational data. Winter changes in the temperature regime in continental regions are controlled mainly by atmospheric circulation anomalies. The model, on the whole, reproduces the empirical structure of changes in the winter field of surface pressure, in particular, the pressure decrease in the Caspian region; however, it substantially (approximately by three times) underestimates the range of changes. Summer temperature variations in the model are characterized by a higher statistical significance than winter ones. The analysis of the sensitivity of the climate in Western Europe to SIC variations alone in the Arctic is an important result of the experiments performed. It is established that the SIC decrease and a strong warming over the Barents Sea in the winter period leads to a cooling over vast regions of the northern part of Eurasia and increases the probability of anomalously cold January months by two times and more (for regions in Western Siberia). This effect is caused by the formation of the increased-pressure region with a center over the southern boundary of the Barents Sea during the SIC decrease and an anomalous advection of cold air masses from the northeast. This result indicates that, to estimate the ALO actions (as well as other long-scale climatic variability modes) on the climate of Eurasia, it is basically important to take into account (or correctly reproduce) Arctic sea ice changes in experiments with climatic models.     

Statistical characteristics of cyclones and anticyclones over the Black Sea in the second half of the 20th century

By using the NCEP reanalysis data for 1952–2000, we estimate the parameters of cyclones and anticyclones in the Black-Sea region and evaluate the statistical characteristics of their variability for each season. It is shown that the frequency of cyclones decreases in all seasons (except summer) as a result of the intensification of the North Atlantic Oscillation in the 1960–90s and the displacement of the predominant paths of synoptic disturbances to the north. For anticyclones, we reveal the opposite trend. The parameters of cyclones and anticyclones are characterized by quasiperiodic variations on the subdecadal scale also induced by the North Atlantic Oscillation. __________ Translated from Morskoi Gidrofizicheskii Zhurnal, No. 6, pp. 47–58, November–December, 2007.     

南海海面风、浪场的EOF分析

在气候分析中常常借助自然正交展开方法分析气象要素的时空分布特征,而对于海洋研究,由于过去观测手段的限制,很难获得较长时间序列和较大空间系列的观测资料,因此像气候分析中常用的经验正交函数(EOF)方法在海洋要素的分析中较少使用.卫星遥感技术的发展为海洋学研究提供了丰富的空间分布均一、时间序列较长的观测资料.本文根据TOPEX/Poseidon(T/P)卫星高度计获得的海面风、浪信息,利用气候分析中常用的EOF分析方法,分析了南海海面风、浪场的时空模态特征.这一分析结果可以很好地反映南海海面风、浪场间的关系,从而为海浪场的经验预报和分析提供参考.     

Influence of radiation and circulation factors on climate change in Western Siberia at the end of the 20th century and beginning of the 21st century

An analysis of the air-temperature and atmospheric-pressure fields in Western Siberia is performed based on observations in 1976–2014; a comparison of temperature and pressure variability in two temporal intervals, 1976–2005 and 1985–2014, is carried out. The estimation of contributions from such climate-forming factors as radiation and circulation is performed for the same intervals. It is revealed that an increase in the annual mean ground–air temperature in the investigated region of Western Siberia was still taking place in the period of 1985–2014; however, the warming process was less active than in the 1976–2005 period. Winter months play the largest role in decreasing the temperature growth rate; during these months, the warming process was replaced by a cooling one in the second time interval. It is shown that the circulation factors, that is, the mechanisms described by indices of global circulation, played the dominant role in the period from 1985 to 2014.     

Quantifying 20th century deposition in complex estuarine environment: An example from the Hudson River

Sediment processes in estuaries are controlled by the interaction of factors that include tides, fresh water inputs, bed morphology, sediment supply, and hydrodynamics. The interaction of these factors strongly influences the pattern of sediment deposition. The ability to quantify sediment deposition on a regional scale will improve the understanding of the underlying processes, and provide valuable information for managing estuarine systems. This paper describes our approach for obtaining the deposition pattern and quantifying the amount of 20th century impacted sediments in the Haverstraw Bay section of the Hudson River Estuary. Through the combination of high-resolution seismic data and rapidly acquired geochemical information from numerous sediment cores, we estimate that our study site experiences an average sediment accumulation rate of ∼3 mm/y and that ∼75,000 t/y or ∼10% of the annual total sediment input measured at the Poughkeepsie, NY gauging station (USGS) is stored in this reach of the Hudson River on ∼100 y timescales. A detailed analysis of the depositional pattern indicates that the accumulation rate varies considerably throughout the study area ranging from non-depositional to >8 mm/y. Our data also clearly indicate that the dredged channel in Haverstraw Bay is currently the main focus of deposition in this area.     

Atlantic meridional overturning circulation and phosphate-classified bottom-up control of Atlantic pelagic ecosystems through the 20th century

Both the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) and the North Atlantic Ocean (NA) biosphere have recognized associations with the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). These multidecadal physical–biological affinities inspired a closer look at AMOC influences on bottom-up control of NA and South Atlantic Ocean (SA) pelagic ecosystem variability. Various ocean models associate changes in the AMOC with sea surface temperature (SST) differences in the western subpolar NA and SA represented as the Atlantic Dipole SST Anomaly (ADSA) index. The Extended Reconstructed SST version 2 (ERSSTv2) dataset for 2° quadrangles from 1890 to 2007 was used here to represent Atlantic Ocean SST patterns and to gauge 20th century AMOC variability using an Atlantic Dipole SST (ADS) index, an un-normalized version of ADSA index. Temperature–phosphate (T–PO₄) linear regressions were used to convert temperature to phosphate concentration ([PO₄]). The interannual stability of T–PO₄ linear regressions first was examined using 26 Bermuda area T–PO₄ datasets between 1958 and 2001. Within the constraints provided by the Bermuda analysis, climatological T–PO₄ linear regressions based on GEOSECS-derived slopes and NODC-derived X-intercepts supported the conversion of monthly Atlantic Ocean ERSSTv2 temperatures for each 2° quadrangle to monthly surface [PO₄]. A representative annual surface phosphate utilization (SPU) was calculated for each 2° quadrangle by subtracting monthly minimum surface [PO₄] from monthly maximum surface [PO₄] to determine the annual surface [PO₄] ranges from 1890 to 2007. Annual average SST tended to increase and overall annual average SPU tended to decrease through the 20th century in both the NA and SA, but the NA exhibited more temporal variability. An Atlantic Dipole Phosphate Utilization (ADPU) index related to the ADS index was calculated for each year from 1890 to 2007. The ADS and ADPU indices were inversely correlated with about 57% of the variability in the ADPU index explained by the ADS index. The ADPU index exhibited three distinct cycles through the 20th century. Cross-correlation analysis showed that the NAO led the ADS and ADPU indices by about 14 years. Differences in annual average SPU for each Atlantic Ocean 2° quadrangle between the three high and four low years of the ADPU cycles yielded six maps that, when averaged, clearly exhibited reversed east–west patterns distributed in alternating latitudinal bands in both the NA and SA. The east–west patterns spatially corresponded to the NA and SA surface circulation and temporally resembled NA patterns previously associated with the NAO. AMOC variability, mediated by Kelvin and Rossby waves associated with changes in both deep and surface arm circulation, likely contributed to meridional continuity of phosphate-classified, NA, and SA pelagic ecosystem variability, including fisheries, through the 20th century. Based on the results, future global warming influences on the AMOC, well short of shutdown, likely will have complex pelagic ecosystem impacts throughout the Atlantic Ocean.     

Meridional heat transport in the North Atlantic and the trends of its variations in the second half of the 20th century

The meridional heat transport in the ocean is computed according to the data of zonal sections of the World Ocean Circulation Experiment made in the North Atlantic in 1992–1998. We perform the generalized analysis of the estimates of meridional heat transport obtained by different authors by direct methods on the basis of the data of sections made between 7.5 and 48°N in the second half of the last century. The meridional heat transport averaged over the entire period of observations attains its maximum (1.38 ± 0.19 PW) in the Subtropical Atlantic. The meridional heat transport is characterized by fairly intense seasonal variability. Its maximum (about 1.9 PW) is observed in the Subtropical Atlantic at the end of summer and its minimum (about 0.8 PW) is attained at the end of winter. A significant trend toward the intensification of meridional heat transport is revealed near 36°N in 1959–1993 (from 0.75 to 1.1 PW). This is an indication of the intensification of meridional oceanic circulation in the North Atlantic. Dedicated to the 75th birthday of N. A. Timofeev, Honored Scientist of the Ukraine, Doctor of Geographical Sciences __________ Translated from Morskoi Gidrofizicheskii Zhurnal, No. 1, pp. 45–58, January–February, 2007.     

Reconstruction of incomplete oceanographic data sets using empirical orthogonal functions: application to the Adriatic Sea surface temperature

A method for the reconstruction of missing data based on an EOF decomposition has been applied to a large data set, a test case of Sea Surface Temperature satellite images of the Adriatic Sea. The EOF decomposition is realised with a Lanczos method, which allows optimising computational time for large matrices. The results show that the reconstruction method leads to accurate reconstructions as well as a low cpu time when dealing with realistic cases. The method has been tested with different amounts of missing data, artificially adding clouds ranging from 40% to 80% of data loss, and then compared to the same data set with no missing data. A comparison with in situ data has also been made. These validation studies show that results are robust, even when the amount of missing data is very high. The reconstruction of the data from the Adriatic Sea shows realistic features and a reliable temperature distribution. In addition, the method is compared to an Optimal Interpolation reconstruction. The results obtained with both methods are very similar. The main difference is the computational time, which is reduced nearly 30 times with the method presented here. Once the reconstruction has been performed, the EOF decomposition is analysed to show the method’s reliability, and a cold event on the Albanian coast is studied. The reconstructed data reflect the effect of wind on the Albanian coast, that led to a cold-water episode in this zone for a 6-day period.     

Distinguishing features of the seismicity in South Kamchatka in the 20th century with regard to the Avacha Bay seismic gap

The distinguishing features of the seismicity throughout South Kamchatka and within the Avacha Bay seismic gap in the 20th century are considered. The evolution of the evaluation of the magnitudes of the strongest earthquakes for this gap from M = 7.25–7.5 in 1965–1980 to 7.75–8.0 after 1980 is discussed. On the basis of the method for studying the characteristic features of the seismicity within a seismic gap developed for the Central Kuriles, the seismicity of South Kamchatka is considered for depths of 0–100, 101–200, and more than 200 km according to the data from the New Catalog [6] for the period from 1901 to 1974 (M ≥ 6.1), the Special Catalog for North Eurasia [3] for the period from 1975 to 1993 (M ≥ 4.5), and additional data from the Kamchatka stations for the period from 1994 to 1997. It was found that the seismic process within the region of South Kamchatka is typical of the island arcs; i.e, most of the earthquakes considered and the maximum of the seismic energy released are concentrated in the lithosphere at depths of 0–100 km. The seismological situation in the zone of Avacha Bay is found to be similar to that within the second kind of the seismic gap during the precursory seismic quiescence of the 1978 Oaxac earthquake with M = 7.8 in Central Mexico. This allows us to consider the zone of Avacha Bay as a possible seismic gap of the second kind. Such a result can be considered as a suggestion of the possibility of the occurrence in Avacha Bay of an earthquake with M ～ 8 according to the long-term forecast for the region of the Kuriles and Kamchatka made by S.A. Fedotov.