A Comparison of Match Ozonesonde-Derived and 3D Model Ozone Loss Rates in the Arctic Polar Vortex during the Winters of 1994/95 and 1995/96

Ozone loss rates from ozonesonde data reported in the Match experiments of winters 1994/95 and 1995/96 inside the Arctic polar vortex are compared with simulations of the same winters performed using the SLIMCAT 3D chemistry and transport model. For 1994/95 SLIMCAT reproduces the location and timing of the diagnosed ozone destruction, reaching 10 ppbv/sunlit hour in late January as observed. SLIMCAT underestimates the loss rates observed in February and March by 1–3 ppbv/sunlit hour. By the end of March, SLIMCAT ozone exceeds the observations by 25–35%. In January 1995 the ozonesonde-derived loss rates at levels above 525 K are not chemical in origin but due to poor conservation of air parcels. Correcting temperature biases in the model forcing data significantly improved the agreement between the model and observed ozone at the end of winter 1994/95, increasing ozone destruction in SLIMCAT in February and March. The SLIMCAT simulation of winter 1995/96 does not reproduce the maximum ozone loss rates diagnosed by Match of 13 ppbv/sunlit hour. Comparing the data for the two winters reveals that the SLIMCAT photochemistry is least able to reproduce observed losses at low temperatures or when low temperatures coincide with high solar zenith angles (SZA). When cold (T = 192 K), high SZA (90°)matches are excluded from the 1995/96 analysis, agreement between the diagnoses and SLIMCAT is better with ozone loss rates of up to 6 ppbv/sunlit hour. For the rest of the winter SLIMCAT consistently underestimates the Match rates of ozone loss by 1–3 ppbv/sunlit hour. In March 1996 the monthly mean SLIMCAT ozone is 50% greater than observations at 430–540 K. In both winters, ozone destruction rates peaked more rapidly and declined more slowly in the Match observations than in the SLIMCAT simulations. The differences between the observed and modelled cumulative ozone losses demonstrate that the total ozone destruction by the end of the winter is sensitive to errors in the instantaneous ozone loss rates of 1–3 ppbv/sunlit hour.     

MIPAS-Transall Observations of the Variability of CLONO2 during the Arctic Winter of 1994/95

In the winter of 1994/95 the German Transall research aircraft performed 5 campaigns in the European Arctic with 22 flights altogether. An extensive dataset of HNO3, ClONO2 and O3 column amounts was obtained by MIPAS-FT (Michelson Interferometer for Passive Atmospheric Sounding - Flugzeug Transall) onboard the aircraft. In this paper we present the variability of the ClONO2 reservoir gas in the course of the winter. We include groundbased FTIR measurements of HF, HCl and ClONO2 to discuss the airborne observations with regard to the partitioning of inorganic chlorine.From mid-December until the end of January, MIPAS measured a stable ClONO2 collar with constantly low column amounts inside the polar vortex and maxima at the edge. This observation reflected widespread conversion of ClONO2 to reactive chlorine inside the vortex for at least six weeks. In good accordance, the ground stations measured low in-vortex HCl and ClONO2 column amounts and conversion of HCl into ClONO2 in the region of the ClONO2 maxima. In the first week of February the ClONO2 amounts started to increase in the edge region as well as inside the vortex. Between March 21 and 27, just one week after the last cold period, MIPAS observed exclusively high ClONO2 column amounts inside the vortex, indicating fast deactivation of active chlorine. In the same period the ground stations measured an excess of ClONO2 over HCl. Further, the high ClONO2 implies that the polar vortex was renoxified in March. Lower ClONO2 values, observed inside the vortex on the flights of April 5 and 8, and an increased HCl/ClONO2 ratio, measured from ground, marked the starting redistribution within the chlorine reservoir species to the photochemically more stable HCl.In February, March and April, MIPAS observed mixing of ClONO2-rich air masses with midlatitude air at the vortex edge. A very clear event happened on March 27. On this flight a distinct ClONO2 minimum was measured at the vortex edge, which was closely correlated with a filament of midlatitude air observed by OLEX (Ozone Lidar EXperiment) onboard the Transall.     

Depletion of Column Ozone in the Arctic During the Winters of 1993-94 and 1994-95

The total ozone reduction in the Arctic during the winters of 1993/94 and 1994/95 has been evaluated using the ground-based total ozone measurements of five SAOZ spectrometers distributed in the Arctic and from number density profiles of a balloon-borne version of the instrument. The ozone change resulting from transport has been removed using a 3D Chemistry Transport Model (CTM) run without chemistry. A cumulative total ozone depletion at the end of winter in March of 18% ± 4% in 1994 and of 32% ± 4% in 1995 was observed within the polar vortex, and of 15% ± 4% in both years outside the vortex. This evaluation is not sensitive to the vertical transport in the model. The periods, locations and altitudes at which ozone loss occurred were tightly connected to temperatures lower than NAT condensation temperature. The maximum loss was observed at 50 hPa in 1994 and lower, 60-80 hPa, in 1995. Half of the depletion in 1994 and three quarters in 1995 occurred during the early winter, showing that a late final warming is not a prerequisite for large ozone destruction in the northern hemisphere. The timing, the geographical location and the altitude of the ozone losses are well captured by the 3D CTM photochemical model using current chemistry, but its amplitude at low sun during the early winter, is underestimated. The model simulations also capture the early season reductions observed outside the vortex. This suggests that the losses occurred in situ in the early winter, when low temperatures are frequent, and not later in March, when ozone is most reduced inside the vortex, which would be the case if leakage from the vortex was the cause of the depletion.     

A Technique for Estimating Polar Ozone Loss: Results for the Northern 1991/92 Winter Using EASOE Data

In this paper we describe a technique for estimating chemical ozone loss in the Arctic vortex. Observed ozone and temperature profiles are combined with the model potential vorticity field to produce time series of vortex averaged ozone mixing ratios on chosen isentropic surfaces. Model-derived radiative heating rates and observed vertical gradients of ozone are then used to estimate the change in ozone that would occur due to diabatic descent. Discrepancies with the observed ozone are interpreted as being of chemical origin, assuming that there is negligible horizontal transport or mixing of air into the vortex. The technique is illustrated using ozone sonde measurements collected during the 1991/92 European Arctic Stratospheric Ozone Experiment (EASOE), meteorological analyses from the European Centre for Medium-range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) and radiative heating rates extracted from the Global Atmospheric Modelling Programme (UGAMP) 3D General Circulation Model. Our results show that there was photochemical ozone destruction inside the Arctic vortex in early 1992 with a loss between 475 K and 550 K (around 20 km) of 0.32±0.15 ppmv in the first 20 days of January, equivalent to a rate of 0.51±0.24%/day (at the 95% confidence level).     

HNO3 and PSC Measurements from the Transall: Sequestering of HNO3 in the Winter of 1994/95

In the winter of 1994/95 the TRANSALL research aircraft performed several flights in the region of the Arctic vortex during the period of low stratospheric temperatures. The results of simultaneous measurements of HNO3 column amounts by the Michelson Interferometer for Passive Atmospheric Sounding (MIPAS) and of aerosol backscatter profiles by the Ozone Lidar EXperiment (OLEX) are presented for two typical flight scenarios across the polar vortex boundary on December 17, 1994 and January 11/12, 1995. On December 17 and January 12, the column amounts of gaseous HNO3 decreased significantly in regions with low stratospheric temperatures. This decrease was correlated with the extent of the polar stratospheric clouds. Depolarisation measurements showed that type Ib PSCs were observed primarily, but equilibrium calculations for H2SO4/HNO3/H2O aerosols seem to underestimate the observed HNO3 sequestering.     

Middle Stratospheric Polar Vortex Ozone Budget during the Warming Arctic Winter, 2002--2003

The ozone budget inside the middle stratospheric polar vortex(24-36 km) during the 2002-2003 Arctic winter is studied by analyzing Michelson Interferometer for Passive Atmospheric Sounding(MIPAS) satellite data.A comprehensive global chemical transport model(Model for Ozone and Related Chemical Tracers,MOZART-3) is used to analyze the observed variation in polar vortex ozone during the stratospheric sudden warming(SSW) events.Both MIPAS measurement and MOZART-3 calculation show that a pronounced increase(26-28 DU) in the polar vortex ozone due to the SSW events.Due to the weakening of the polar vortex,the exchange of ozone mass across the edge of the polar vortex increases substantially and amounts to about 3.0× 107 kg according to MOZART-3 calculation.The enhanced downward transport offsets about 80% of polar vortex ozone mass increase by horizontal transport.A "passive ozone" experiment shows that only ～55% of the vertical ozone mass flux in February and March can be attributed to the variation in vertical transport.It is also shown that the enhanced downward ozone above ～32 km should be attributed to the springtime photochemical ozone production.Due to the increase of air temperature,the NOx reaction rate increases by 40%-80% during the SSW events.As a result,NOx catalytic cycle causes another 44% decrease in polar vortex ozone compared to the net ozone changes due to dynamical transport.It is also shown that the largest change in polar vortex ozone is due to horizontal advection by planetary waves in January 2003.     

Record Arctic Ozone Loss in Spring 2020 is Likely Caused by North Pacific Warm Sea Surface Temperature Anomalies

Record ozone loss was observed in the Arctic stratosphere in spring 2020. This study aims to determine what caused the extreme Arctic ozone loss. Observations and simulation results are examined in order to show that the extreme Arctic ozone loss was likely caused by record-high sea surface temperatures(SSTs) in the North Pacific. It is found that the record Arctic ozone loss was associated with the extremely cold and persistent stratospheric polar vortex over February–April, and the extremely cold vortex was a result of anomalously weak planetary wave activity. Further analysis reveals that the weak wave activity can be traced to anomalously warm SSTs in the North Pacific. Both observations and simulations show that warm SST anomalies in the North Pacific could have caused the weakening of wavenumber-1 wave activity, colder Arctic vortex, and lower Arctic ozone. These results suggest that for the present-day level of ozone-depleting substances, severe Arctic ozone loss could form again, as long as certain dynamic conditions are satisfied.     

Lagrangian Estimations of Ozone Loss in the Core and Edge Region of the Arctic Polar Vortex 1995/1996: Model Results and Observations

Ozone evolution and diabatic descent in the Arctic polar vortex in winter 1995/1996 was studied with a newly developed diabatic trajectory–chemistry model (DTCM). To study the chemical and dynamic evolution of the species in the polar vortex, 400 diabatic trajectories were calculated in the vortex core and edge region by using three-dimensional (3-D) wind data provided by the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF). The averaged diabatic descending motion and ozone behavior were obtained for particles started from the core and from the edge region of the vortex. The difference in ozone-loss rates as well as the difference in descending rates between the vortex core and the vortex-edge region was not statistically significant. The average cumulative ozone loss of 65 ± 16% in the vortex core obtained from the model calculations was consistent with the estimates obtained with a different method (Match experiment). The model results for the vortex core were compared with those obtained using trajectories with the vertical winds calculated on the basis of radiative cooling rates as used by the SLIMCAT 3-D chemical transport model. Although the trajectories based on cooling rates exhibited lower descending rates than those based on 3-D analyzed wind data, the ozone behavior was similar for both types of trajectory. Ozonesonde data from two stations (Ny-Alesund in the vortex core and Yakutsk in the vortex edge) were compared with the model results. For Lagrangian estimation of the ozone loss at these stations, the descending rates obtained by the diabatic trajectory calculations were used. Good agreements were obtained between the model results and observations for both the vortex core and edge region. These results suggest that strong ozone depletion occurred not only in the core, but also in the edge region of the vortex, and that air masses from the mid-latitudes did not appreciably affect the degree of ozone depletion in this winter–spring period. The sensitivity of the model to different descending rates and to the presence of large nitric acid trihydrate (NAT) particles was also examined.     

Water and energy fluxes in the lower Mackenzie valley, 1994/95

Abstract

The 1994/95 water year in the lower Mackenzie Valley was an extraordinary year hydrologically, with the important winter to summer transition being the earliest on record. Unlike more temperate areas, the northern water year is dominated, to a great extent, by this onset of spring which results in the melting of nearly half of the annual precipitation over a period of a few weeks, initiates the thawing of the river and lake ice and the soil active layer, and marks the beginning of the evaporation season. An early winter to summer transition occurred at two small research basins in the Inuvik area and at the East Channel of the Mackenzie River Delta. At the research basins, for example, the spring of 1994/95 had the earliest onset of continuous above‐freezing air temperatures, removal of the snow cover, and initiation of runoff. Consideration of the entire water year at the research basins demonstrates that rain and snow were nearly equal in magnitude, evaporation exceeded runoff, and the annual change in storage was negative to near zero. This negative change in storage was related to the long, snow‐free evaporation season, above‐average air temperatures, and below‐normal precipitation. The unusual winter to summer transition on the Mackenzie River in the eastern portion of the Mackenzie Delta was, in many ways, even more remarkable than that in the research basins. Earlier work had suggested that the timing of the spring breakup was very consistent from year to year. An analysis of the timing of breakup from the early 1960s to the late 1990s, however, shows a trend towards earlier spring breakup, with the mean for the 1990s being nine days earlier than that for the 1960s, and with the 1995 breakup being the earliest on record. Such an early breakup is not only an indication of warm local conditions, but of warm temperatures and an early runoff event over the more southerly areas of the Mackenzie basin. A companion Mackenzie Global Energy and Water Cycle Experiment study illustrates the importance of a high pressure circulation pattern centred east of the basin to this early melt event.     

Closing the Mackenzie basin water budget,water years 1994/95 to 1996/97

Abstract

A particularly elusive science objective for the Mackenzie Global Energy and Water Cycle Experiment (GEWEX) Study (MAGS) has been to close the atmospheric moisture budget and rationalize it against the surface water budget at annual or even monthly timescales. The task, while not difficult in principle, is complicated by two factors. First is the importance of basin snow‐cover, soil and water‐body storage in the surface water budget. Month‐to‐month changes in these components are frequently greater than the atmospheric flux terms, for example, during spring snowmelt. Furthermore, there is approximately a six‐week lag before local changes are evident in the discharge at the mouth of the basin. Second, the coarse resolution of all of the supporting data may add significant systematic errors. For example, the two radiosonde soundings per day available to the project are unlikely to account adequately for all the moisture generated locally through evapotranspiration during the summer convective season.

This analysis will directly address these two main issues by applying hydrologic and atmospheric computations to assess the storage question, and by using additional soundings at a single site to sample the diurnal signature in atmospheric moisture caused by evapotranspiration. Resulting modifications to the atmospheric moisture and surface water budgets then allow near closure of the MAGS monthly water budget within acceptable error limits.     

Enhancement of Winter Arctic Warming by the Siberian High over the Past Decade

In recent decades the Arctic surface air temperature(SAT) in autumn has been increasing steadily. In winter, however, instead of a linear trend, the Arctic SAT shows an abrupt change that occurred in 2004. During the years from 1979 to 2003, the first principle component(PC1) of winter Arctic SAT remains stable, and no significant increasing trend is detected. However, the PC1 changes abruptly from negative to positive phase in the winter of 2004. The enhanced Siberian high may have contributed to this abrupt change because the temporal evolution of Arctic temperature correlates significantly with sea level pressure variation in the northern Eurasian continent, and the atmospheric circulation anomaly related to the Siberian high from 2004 to 2013 favors a warmer Arctic. With the help of the meridional wind anomaly around the Siberian high, warmer air is transported to the high latitudes and therefore increases the Arctic temperature.     

评估气候模式模拟暖北冰洋与大陆寒冬以及未来变化预估

<正>在研究全球变暖中,发现了相应北冰洋的异常变暖和夏、秋季海冰迅速融化,另一方面注意到冬季北半球大陆中纬度经常出现寒冬和暴雪。本文综述近些年来国外的有关研究,首先给出观测到的暖北冰洋与大陆寒冬的联系~([1-10]),然后重点给出气候模式是否可以模拟出这个特征与可能机制以及预估未来的变化~([11-22])。1观测到的暖北冰洋与大陆寒冬许多研究工作~([1-10])利用观测资料和再分析资料计算了暖北冰洋与大陆寒冬的联系,表1给出主要的研究结果,可以注意到:(1)观测到的现象表明,不论30年的再分析资料研究还是个例研究都一致表     

北极平流层冬季早期变暖的GCM模拟研究

观测表明北极平流层自20世纪70年代末以来在冬季早期 (11～12月) 存在变暖的趋势。为了验证该趋势是否是由于海面温度 (SST) 升高造成的, 我们使用观测的全球SST强迫一个全球大气环流模式 (AGCM)。集合模拟的结果表明, 在SST强迫下, 北极平流层呈现统计显著的变暖趋势, 极地对流层也有相对较弱的变暖趋势, 但统计显著性较低。通过对模拟的位势高度进行经验正交函数 (EOF) 分析, 我们发现北半球位势高度第一模态 (EOF1) 的空间结构非常类似于北极涛动 (AO) 或北半球环状模 (NAM), 其平流层主分量时间序列在冬季早期呈现统计显著的负趋势。与负的AO趋势相对应的是, 对流层高纬度和平流层中高纬度波动增强, 说明极区变暖是由于波动增强产生的极区绝热加热增强造成的。另外, 模拟的结果还表明北极平流层不仅在冬季早期出现变暖的趋势, 在冬季晚期 (2～3月) 北极平流层低层也出现弱的变暖趋势。SST强迫导致北极平流层冬季变暖不利于异相臭氧化学反应的发生, 这对极地平流层臭氧恢复有着重要意义。     

Ground-based FTIR Measurements of Stratospheric Trace Species from Aberdeen During Winter and Spring 1993/94 and 1994/95 and Comparison with a 3D Model

Vertical column abundances of HCl, ClONO2, HF and HNO3 have been obtained from infrared solar absorption measurements made at Aberdeen, UK (57°N, 2°W) during the periods January 13 1994 - May 8 1994 and November 23 1994 - April 19 1995. The measurements reveal the partitioning of inorganic chlorine (Cly) inside and outside the polar vortex during these two winter and spring periods. Stratospheric temperatures within the northern polar vortex during 1993/94 were not cold throughout January and most of February. The measurements reported here suggest that following a brief period of chlorine activation in late February and early March, the active chlorine within the vortex recovered rapidly to form ClONO2 resulting in in-vortex ClONO2 columns of 7 × 1015 molecules cm-2. In contrast, measurements during January 1995 suggest extensive invortex activation with in-vortex HCl + ClONO2 as low as 3.6×1015 molecules cm-2. High day-to-day variability in the ClONO2 columns observed during February is evidence for the transport of ClONO2 rich air from high to mid latitudes during the late winter. The implications for mid latitude O3 loss are discussed. A preliminary comparison of the HCl, ClONO2, and HNO3 column data from winter 94/95 with a three-dimensional chemical transport model shows that the model generally reproduces well the day-to-day variability and absolute magnitude of the observed columns, especially for HNO3 outside of the vortex.     

2008/2009年冬季北极涛动对河南冬季干旱的影响分析

采用NCEP/NCAR再分析资料,分析了2008-2009年冬季河南干旱主要发生时段的大气环流状况及干旱缓解的大气环流背景,结果表明:干旱发展主要阶段,北极涛动处于正位相,欧亚中高纬度环流长时间维持阻塞形势,东亚冬季季风偏弱,印缅槽区被反气旋控制,西太平洋副高位置偏东,欧亚地区环流异常长时间维持导致河南发生干旱.2009年2月大气环流发生转变,北极涛动转为负位相,有利于高纬度冷空气南下,低纬度西太平洋副热带高压西进北抬向内地输送水汽,在冷空气与水汽条件配合下,河南2月份经历多次降水过程,旱情得以缓解.     

Groundbased Doas UV/visible measurements at Kiruna (Sweden) during the sesame winters 1993/94 and 1994/95.

Zenith sky observations of O3, NO2, OClO and BrO are reported, which were performed at Kiruna (67.9°N, 21.1°E) within the SESAME winters 1993/1994 and 1994/95. For both winters large total amounts of OClO were observed inside the polar vortex at twilight, indicating the degree and the temporal variation of the halogen activation of the polar stratosphere. Occasionally OClO could also be observed outside the polar vortex, most likely due to export of halogen activated vortex air masses into the ambient stratosphere. BrO could also be detected in winter 1994/95, with the largest slant column amounts (5·1014/cm2) occuring in the polar vortex in mid-winter. Similar abundances of stratospheric BrO were observed at dusk and dawn, for both, air masses inside and outside the vortex. This observation is in reasonable agreement with previous studies on stratospheric BrO (observations and models) of Wahner et al. (1992), Arpag et al. (1994), Krug et al. (1996), and Lary et al. (1996a,b), but partly in disagreement with those of Solomon et al. (1989), Fish et al. (1995), and Sessler et al. (1996).     

Partitioning Between Chlorine Reservoir Species Deduced from Observations in the Arctic Winter Stratosphere

Simultaneous observations of several chlorine source gases, as well asHCl and ClO, have been performed in the Arctic stratosphere on 1 and 9February 1994, using balloon-borne instrumentation as a contribution toSESAME (Second European Stratospheric Arctic and Mid latitude Experiment).The observed mixing ratios of HCl and N₂O show a clearanticorrelation. No severe loss of HCl was observed inside the vortex duringour measurement. These measurements showed that during this period at 20 kmand above, HCl was either in excess, or at least as abundant, asClONO₂ and comprised between 50 and 70% of theavailable chlorine, Cl_y. On 1 February, measurements were madeinside the polar vortex. The air mass sampled on this day showed a clearsignature of diabatic descent, and also enhanced levels of ClO with amaximum of 230 pptv at 22.5 km. A 10 day backward trajectory analysis showedthat these air masses had passed a large region of low temperatures a fewhours prior to the measurement. Temperatures along the back trajectory atthe 475 K and 550 K levels (20.1 and 23.7 km respectively) were cold enoughfor heterogeneous chlorine activation to occur, in agreement with theobserved elevated ClO mixing ratios.     

冬季中国东部与北极之间近地面温度变化的年际联系

利用NCEP/NCAR再分析资料和国家气象信息中心整编的425站气温资料,借助经验正交函数分解（EOF）、相关分析和回归分析等方法探讨1956~2015年冬季北极及中高纬度近地面温度、西伯利亚高压的变化特征以及两者与中国东部气温直接和间接的年际联系。为此定义了3个西伯利亚高压指数,即西伯利亚高压中心强度指数（SHCI）、西伯利亚高压面积指数（SHA）和西伯利亚高压东边界指数（SHEB）。结果表明:从1998年开始冬季巴伦支海、喀拉海迅速增温,并在年际尺度上与中国东部气温存在显著的负相关关系,即北极近地面温度与中国东部气温的直接联系。同时,西伯利亚高压的3个指数也与北极地区近地面温度和中国东部气温有较好的年际关系,体现了西伯利亚高压是联系北极和东亚气候的桥梁,当北极近地面温度升高（降低）时,西伯利亚高压中心强度增强（减弱）,面积扩大（缩小）,东边界东伸（西退）,中国东部气温降低（升高）,即北极近地面温度（西伯利亚高压）与中国东部气温的间接（直接）联系。最后,讨论了北极近地面温度变化影响中国东部气温的可能物理机制。     

北极海冰变化对新疆冬季气温的影响研究

利用1961年12月—2022年2月新疆冬季气温、北极海冰等资料,探讨北极海冰变化影响新疆冬季气温的物理模态、影响机制。结果表明,北极海冰的变化与新疆大部冬季气温呈正相关,北极海冰变化通过改变北半球大气高低空配置进而影响新疆冬季气温。另外,不同海区的海冰变化对新疆冬季气温的影响有显著区别：格陵兰海—丹麦海峡、拉普捷夫海—东西伯利亚海海冰异常偏多时,新疆大部冬季气温偏高。巴伦支海—喀拉海、鄂霍次克海—白令海峡、哈德孙湾—戴维斯海峡海冰异常偏多时,新疆大部冬季气温偏低。