DOMINANT PHYSICAL PROCESSES ASSOCIATED WITH PHASE DIFFERENCES BETWEEN SURFACE RAINFALL AND CONVECTIVE AVAILABLE POTENTIAL ENERGY

A lag correlation analysis is conducted with a 21-day TOGA COARE cloud-resolving model simulation data to identify the phase relation between surface rainfall and convective available potential energy (CAPE) and associated physical processes. The analysis shows that the maximum negative lag correlations between the model domain mean CAPE and rainfall occurs around lag hour 6. The minimum mean CAPE lags mean and convective rainfall through the vapor condensation and depositions, water vapor convergence, and heat divergence whereas it lags stratiform rainfall via the transport of hydrometeor concentration from convective regions to raining stratiform regions, vapor condensation and depositions, water vapor storage, and heat divergence over raining stratiform regions.     

SENSITIVITY OF LANDFALLING TYPHOON STRUCTURE AND PRECIPITATION TO VARYING CLOUD MICROPHYSICAL PROCESSES

Typhoon KROSA in 2007 is simulated using GRAPES, a mesoscale numerical model, in which a two-parameter mixed-phase microphysics scheme is implanted. A series of numerical experiments are designed to test the sensitivity of landfalling typhoon structure and precipitation to varying cloud microphysics and latent heat release. It is found that typhoon track is sensitive to different microphysical processes and latent heat release. The cloud structures of simulated cyclones can be quite different with that of varying microphysical processes. Graupel particles play an important role in the formation of local heavy rainfall and the maintenance of spiral rainbands. Analysis reveals that the feedback of latent heat to dynamic fields can significantly change the content and distribution of cloud hydrometeors, thus having an impact on surface precipitation.     

A MODELING STUDY OF INHOMOGENEOUS COASTAL GALES ASSOCIATED WITH THE LANDFALL OF TYPHOON SOUDELOR (2015)

In this study, coastal gales and rainfall attributed to the landfall of Typhoon Soudelor (2015) are analyzed based on observational dense automatic weather stations data, advanced scatterometer-retrieved 10-m ocean surface wind data and simulations using the Weather Research and Forecast (WRF) model. This study focuses on gale bands in the right-front quadrant of the typhoon and associated coastal winds over Zhejiang and Fujian Provinces in China before the landfall of the typhoon. The results are summarized as follows. (1) 10-m surface wind data from automatic weather stations over land and islands, advanced scatterometer-retrieved 10-m ocean surface wind data, and the WRF simulation indicate similar mesoscale offshore gales. (2) The model simulation with a 333-m grid mesh indicates a gale zone over the right-front quadrant of the typhoon; the gale is “broken” over the coastal areas, and formed an inhomogeneous gale band. (3) The model-simulated winds agree well with the island observations. (4) Non-uniform gales over boundary layers result in horizontal wind-speed gradients and strong convergence that favors the development of convection and the maintenance of ocean surface gales.     

登陆台风Matsa维持机理的数值研究

使用新一代中尺度WRF模式对2005年台风Matsa(麦莎)登陆后的变化特征进行了数值模拟;对其登陆后强度持续维持的机理作了初步探讨;对登陆后涡动动能收支作了诊断分析。台风"麦莎"登陆后长久维持与以下因素密切相关。(1)持续的水汽输送通道。"麦莎"登陆后两条持续维持的水汽输送通道将暖湿空气源源不断地送入台风,为"麦莎"的维持提供了潜热能。(2)增强的高层辐散风场。200 hPa附近的辐散风场随着时间的增加而增强,所产生的"抽吸"作用和"减压"作用,对"麦莎"环流和强度的维持起到了重要的作用。(3)长久剧烈的上升运动。"麦莎"登陆后一直保持着剧烈的上升运动,强烈的上升运动把低层的暖湿空气向上输送,为"麦莎"的维持提供热能和动能。(4)活跃的中尺度扰动。"麦莎"的螺旋云带中活跃着中尺度对流系统,它们在低层所产生的较强辐合作用对"麦莎"气旋式环流的维持起到了正反馈作用。(5)涡动动能收支的诊断分析表明,"麦莎"登陆后,地形等摩擦作用和水平输送使其能量耗损,垂直通量散度项使其能量增加,平均动能与涡动动能之间的转换项是涡动动能收支中的相对小项;但随着时间的增加摩擦动能耗散作用逐渐减小,"麦莎"从中高层环境中获得了能量,涡动动能的增加从高层开始逐渐向中低层传播。     

登陆热带气旋暴雨突然增幅和特大暴雨之研究进展

热带气旋暴雨突然增幅和特大暴雨往往是酿成洪涝、山体滑坡、泥石流、山洪爆发等巨灾的直接诱因,因此,登陆热带气旋引发暴雨突然增幅和特大暴雨研究受到了气象学者的高度关注,也是热带气旋研究领域的难点之一.着重从以下5个方面系统地综述了国内外相关机理研究的主要进展:(1) 行星尺度环流背景、天气尺度系统和中尺度系统的多尺度相互作用;(2) 下垫面条件的影响;(3) 环境垂直风切变的作用;(4) 能量的制造及转换理论;(5) 涡旋Rossby波和重力惯性波的激发传播理论.最后对当前现状中的存在问题和未来工作设想进行了探讨.     

台风“海棠”特大暴雨数值模拟研究

在福建中北部登陆的台风,往往会严重影响浙江,尤其值得注意的是台风引起特大暴雨经常会发生在浙江东南沿海的南雁荡山区和北雁荡山区,2005年在福建省连江黄歧登陆的台风"海棠"(0505)对浙江东南沿海造成严重影响,是这类台风比较典型个例。文中利用非静力模式MM5模拟"海棠"台风在浙东南沿海造成的特大暴雨,模拟结果与实况对比分析表明,模式较好地模拟了台风降水强度和分布,特别是成功模拟出南雁荡山区特大暴雨中心(南部暴雨区)和雁荡山区特大暴雨中心(北部暴雨区);运用高时空分辨率模拟资料对特大暴雨成因进行诊断分析表明,南部暴雨区涡度低层到高层向西倾斜结构和北部暴雨区高低空强辐散辐合的耦合结构有利于形成暴雨区强烈上升运动,环境风场垂直切变产生次级环流进一步加强暴雨区上升运动;暴雨区持续不稳定层结和特殊水汽输送通道为特大暴雨提供热力条件和水汽条件。最后对浙南闽北地形对台风特大暴雨影响进行数值敏感性试验表明,温州南、北雁荡山脉地形等高线与台风水汽输送路径正交是造成特大暴雨的重要原因,地形使暴雨增幅明显,地形越高对暴雨增幅越明显,降水分布更加不均匀。比较台风造成南、北特大暴雨条件,发现两者既有环境风场垂直切变产生次级环流进一步加强暴雨区上升运动、持续不稳定层结以及地形对暴雨增幅作用等相同之处,又有动力结构、维持持续不稳定层结条件以及水汽输送等不同之处。     

VARIATIONAL DATA ASSIMILATION USING WAVELET BACKGROUND ERROR COVARIANCE: INITIALIZATION OF TYPHOON KAEMI (2006)

Background error covariance plays an important role in any variational data assimilation system, because it determines how information from observations is spread in model space and between different model variables. In this paper, the use of orthogonal wavelets in representation of background error covariance over a limited area is studied. Based on the WRF model and its 3D-VAR system, an algorithm using orthogonal wavelets to model background error covariance is developed. Because each wavelet function contains information on both position and scale, using a diagonal correlation matrix in wavelet space gives the possibility to represent some anisotropic and inhomogeneous characteristics of background error covariance. The experiments show that local correlation functions are better modeled than spectral methods. The formulation of wavelet background error covariance is tested with the typhoon Kaemi (2006). The results of experiments indicate that the subsequent forecasts of typhoon Kaemi’s track and intensity are significantly improved by the new method.     

CONVECTIVE-STRATIFORM RAINFALL PARTITION BY RADIANCE-DERIVED CLOUD CONTENT: A MODELING STUDY

A new scheme that separates convective-stratiform rainfall is developed using threshold values of liquid water path (LWP) and ice water path (IWP). These cloud contents can be predicted with radiances at the Advanced Microwave Sounding Unit (AMSU) channels (23.8, 31.4, 89, and 150 GHz) through linear regression models. The scheme is demonstrated by an analysis of a two-dimensional cloud resolving model simulation that is imposed by a forcing derived from the Tropical Ocean Global Atmosphere Coupled Ocean–Atmosphere Response Experiment (TOGA COARE). The rainfall is considered convective if associated LWP is larger than 1.91 mm or IWP is larger than 1.70 mm. Otherwise, the rainfall is stratiform. The analysis of surface rainfall budget demonstrates that this new scheme is physically meaningful.     

“9608”号台风登陆北上引发北方特大暴雨的中尺度对流系统研究

利用NCEP再分析资料和常规观测资料,对1996年8月3—5日发生在河北和山西的特大暴雨过程进行了分析和模拟研究,并对模拟结果用部分特殊观测资料进行了证实。天气形势的分析表明,“96.8”暴雨过程中登陆减弱的台风低压并未出现“75.8”暴雨中的台风与中纬度西风槽发生相互作用,入侵的弱冷空气是由华北高压南侧的偏东风引导至台风倒槽外围,是属于比较少见的登陆台风北上受高压阻挡停滞类型;台风倒槽内发生发展的2个中尺度对流云团是造成此次暴雨的直接影响系统,对流层低层的偏南风低空急流对中尺度对流云团的发展具有重要作用;暴雨期间,低空急流不仅强度大,而且伸展高度也相对较高;伴随强对流系统的主要入流和出流气流分别有2支,其中对流层高层的高空中尺度急流中心主要由强出流气流形成。分析还表明太行山对对流系统的阻挡可能是导致强降水长时间维持在石家庄附近的原因之一。     

“麦莎”台风暴雨落区非对称分布的诊断分析

利用FY-2C气象卫星资料、常规资料和NCEP再分析资料，对2005年第9号台风“麦莎”登陆后暴雨落区非对称分布的成因进行诊断分析，并讨论其动力学和热力学特征。结果表明：（1）FY-2C红外-通道辐射亮温（TBB）场能够清晰地揭示台风暴雨落区的分布以及造成这种非对称分布的云系结构特征；（2）水汽图像展示了此次降水过程中，对流层中上层主要的水汽型，来自南海和东海强盛的热带水汽羽直抵台风中心东部，中纬度地区的极锋水汽羽东移，其尾端并入台风北部，受二者共同作用，台风降水呈非对称分布；（3）台风中心附近的垂直流场、涡度、假相当位温和整层积分的水汽通量散度等物理量的非常规分布以及低层冷空气的契入，共同解释了台风云系的非对称结构及强雨区非对称分布的形成原因。     

ALLOCATION DIFFERENCE ANALYSES OF WATER SUBSTANCES DURING TYPHOON LANDING PROCESSES

Based on a successful simulation of Typhoon Haikui (2012) using WRF (Weather Research & Forecasting) model with the WSM6 microphysics scheme, a high-resolution model output is presented and analyzed in this study. To understand the cause of the average gridded rainfall stability and increases after Haikui’s landfall, this research examines the fields of the physical terms as well as the vapor and condensate distributions and budgets, including their respective changes during the landing process. The environmental vapor supply following the typhoon landfall has no significant difference from that before the landfall. Although Haikui’s secondary circulation weakens, this circulation is not conducive to typhoon rainfall stability or increases, although the amounts of the six kinds of water substances (vapor, cloud water, cloud ice, snow, rain, and graupel) increase in the outer region of the typhoon. This reallocation of water substances is essential to the maintenance of rainfall. The six kinds of water substances are classified as vapor, clouds (cloud water and ice) and precipitation (snow, rain, and graupel) to diagnose their budgets. This sorting reveals that the changes in the budgets of different kinds of water substances, caused by the reduced mixing ratios of snow and ice, the water consumption of clouds, and the transformation of graupel, induce increased concentrations of precipitation fallout, which occur closer to the ground after typhoon landfall. In addition, this pattern is an efficient way for Haikui’s rainfall to remain stable after its landfall. Thus, the allocation and budget analyses of water substances are meaningful when forecasting the typhoon rainfall stability and increases after landfall.     

NUMERICAL STUDY OF COLD AIR IMPACT ON RAINFALL REINFORCEMENT ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL CYCLONE TALIM (2005): I. IMPACT OF DIFFERENT COLD AIR INTENSITY

In 2005,significant rainfall reinforcement and severe disaster was induced by tropical cyclone(TC) Talim after it made landfall on the east of China.Observational analyses show that it has relationship with cold air intrusion.For investigating the impact of cold air intensity,we make use of Weather Research and Forecasting(WRF) model,the synthesizer of NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data and Japan regional spectral model data,to carry out numerical experiments.Results show that rainfall reinforcement occurs in all experiments.Different intensity of cold air can modify the rainfall distribution and intensity significantly.In the rainfall center,the increment maximum of rainfall is twice as large as that of the minimum.Moderate cold air intrusion may result in the strongest rainfall reinforcement.Different cold air intensity can lead to different motion of low-level convergence lines and fronts.There is a good relationship between the rainfall region and the eastern part of the front.On one hand,strong cold air weakens the TC intensity by its intrusion into the TC center and results in weak convergence and a convergent zone and a rain band shifted southward.On the other hand,weak cold air reduces the convergence and moves the convergent zone and rain band northward.Moderate cold air intrusion maintains strong low-level convergence and high-level divergence,keeping strong upward motion over certain regions.Consequently,the rain band begins to stagnate and rainfall reinforces abruptly therein.     

EFFECTS OF SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE AND ITS DIURNAL VARIATION ON DIURNAL VARIATION OF RAINFALL: A PARTITIONING ANALYSIS BASED ON SURFACE RAINFALL BUDGET

The effects of sea surface temperature(SST) and its diurnal variation on diurnal variation of rainfall are examined in this study by analyzing a series of equilibrium cloud-resolving model experiments which are imposed with zero large-scale vertical velocity.The grid rainfall simulation data are categorized into eight rainfall types based on rainfall processes including water vapor convergence/divergence,local atmospheric drying/moistening,and hydrometeor loss/convergence or gain/divergence.The rainfall contributions of the rainfall types with water vapor convergence are insensitive to the increase in SST from 27°C to 29°C during the nighttime,whereas they are decreased during the daytime.The rainfall contributions of the rainfall types with water vapor convergence are decreased as the SST increases from 29°C to 31°C but the decreases are larger during the nighttime than during the daytime.The rainfall contributions of the rainfall types with water vapor convergence are decreased by the inclusion of diurnal variation of SST with diurnal difference of 1°C during the nighttime,but the decreases are significantly slowed down as the diurnal difference of SST increases from 1°C to 2°C.The rainfall contributions of the rainfall types with water vapor convergence are insensitive to the inclusion of diurnal variation of SST during the daytime.     

卫星资料在台风暴雨数值模拟中的应用

用ＰＳＵ／ＮＣＡＲ中尺度模式，采用ＥＣＭＷＦ资料对８２０９号台风带来的暴雨进行了控制试验，同时采用卫星和地面资料对原有初始湿度场作订正，进行了灵敏试验。对比分析表明，应用卫星资料后，模拟的台风暴雨及雨量中心强度与实况甚为一致。此外，由模式输出流场的分析表明，台风内部及其外围有显著的非对称气流和明显的中尺度系统结构。暴雨发生在低空非对称气流聚合和高空非对称气流辐散重叠区域；在强雨量中心区，低空有清楚     

A NUMERICAL STUDY OF THE INFLUENCE OF SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES WITH DIFFERENT TEMPORAL RESOLUTIONS ON TYPHOON DUJUAN OVER THE SOUTH CHINA SEA

Daily and weekly sea surface temperature data of Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) Microwave Imager and Advanced Microwave Scanning Radiometer-Earth Observing System sensors are used as forcing of the underlying sea surface in the mesoscale numerical model to simulate Typhoon Dujuan that moved across the South China Sea in 2003. The numerical results show that different SSTs near the typhoon center result in differences in the atmospheric wind field, indicating that the model has a fast and obvious response to SSTs. Different SST influences the intensity and track of Dujuan to some degree and has significant impacts on its precipitation and latent heat flux near the eye. The SST influence on Dujuan is mainly fulfilled by changing the latent heat flux between the ocean surface and the atmosphere above.     

Nudging地面加密观测改进数值模式对城市效应及其触发对流的模拟:一次夜间个例试验

城市(热力、动力、人类活动等)效应对城市及周边地区强降水有着重要的影响。由于涉及到多方面因素,在数值模式中合理描述城市效应仍然存在许多困难。采用Nudging地面加密观测间接引入城市效应(Nudg)和使用城市冠层模式直接引入城市效应(Urba)两种方式模拟了2017年5月7日发生在广东广州的一次极端降水过程。结果表明Nudging地面加密观测能够有效地在数值模式中引入城市效应,从而合理地再现出城市热岛及其触发的对流和强降水的时空演变,而使用城市冠层模式未能够模拟出城市热岛及其触发的对流和降水。具体而言,Nudg能够维持城市的热岛,在城市热岛的下风方最先触发了对流,对流快速发展并稳定维持,从而在广州城市下风(西北)方形成了强降水。然而,Urba试验中城市热岛迅速减弱消亡,从而未能在城市下风方触发出对流,导致降水模拟的失败;尽管后期在城市下风方边缘及北部山区有零星的雷达回波,但均未能够发展形成组织化的对流单体或系统。对本次强降水事件对流的触发而言,城市热岛的加热作用较城市的摩擦辐合更重要。提出的Nudging地面加密观测间接地引入城市效应的方法可用于与城市下垫面相关的各类天气事件的模拟研究。      

两个路径相似台风暴雨过程的模拟分析

以两个路径相似的台风"海棠"和"凤凰"为研究对象,利用MM5模式对其二次登陆过程进行模拟并通过与实况的对比表明,模式对台风路径和暴雨的模拟是成功的。利用模式输出从动力、水汽、不稳定层结和地形等四方面对暴雨落区和强度进行诊断,结果表明:低层螺旋度正值区与未来12 h暴雨落区有良好对应关系,高层螺旋度负值区偏离暴雨区,螺旋度高低层耦合产生的倾斜上升气流是触发和维持台风暴雨的动力机制。在台风登陆过程中,浙南闽北一直有源源不断的水汽输入,登陆点北侧水汽输送大于南侧是造成台风降水非对称分布的重要原因。台风由暖洋面移入大陆"冷场"加强了不稳定层结,在"海棠"台风暴雨过程中,弱冷空气侵入台风环流,触发不稳定能量释放在暴雨增幅中起了重要作用,暴雨出现在相当位温等值线密集的向北倾斜锋区。地形对暴雨的增幅作用十分显著,迎风坡由于地形动力抬升有利于上升运动加强,使得对流发展旺盛,降水增加,形成暴雨中心。     

SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE RESPONSE TEMPERATURE TO TYPHOON MORAKOT (2009) AND ITS INFLUENCE

While previous studies indicate that typhoons can decrease sea surface temperature(SST) along their tracks, a few studies suggest that the cooling patterns in coastal areas are different from those in the open sea. However, little is known about how the induced cooling coupled with the complex ocean circulation in the coastal areas can affect tropical cyclone track and intensity. The sea surface responses to the land falling process of Typhoon Morakot(2009) are examined observationally and its influences on the activity of the typhoon are numerically simulated with the WRF model. The present study shows that the maximum SST cooling associated with Morakot occurred on the left-hand side of the typhoon track during its landfall. Numerical simulations show that, together with the SST gradients associated with the coastal upwelling and mesoscale oceanic vortices, the resulting SST cooling can cause significant difference in the typhoon track, comparable to the current 24-hour track forecasting error. It is strongly suggested that it is essential to include the non-uniform SST distribution in the coastal areas for further improvement in typhoon track forecast.     

THE STUDY OF STORM RAINFALL CAUSED BY INTERACTION BETWEEN THE NON-ZONAL HIGH LEVEL JET STREAK AND TYPHOON IN THE DISTANCE

In this paper, statistics were analyzed concerning correlation between the storm rainfall far from typhoon and non-zonal upper-level jet stream. The results show that the jet stream at 200 hPa is constantly SW (90.2 %) during the period in which storm rainfall occurs. Rainfall area lies in the right rear regions of the jet axes. While the storm intensifies, the jet tends to be stronger and turn non-zonal. With the MM4 model, numerical simulation and diagnosis were carried out for Typhoon No.9711 (Winnie) on August 19 to 20, 1997. The distant storm rainfall is tightly correlative to the jet and low-level typhoon trough. The divergence field of jet is related to the v component. The upper level can cause the allobaric wind convergence at low level. This is the result of the form of low-level typhoon trough and the strength of the storm. By scale analysis, it is found that there is a branch of middle scale transverse inverse circulation in the right entrance regions behind the jet below the 300-hPa level, which is very important to the maintenance and strengthening of storm rainfall. This branch of inverse circulation is relative to the reinforcement of jet's non-zonal characteristics. From the field of mesoscale divergence field and non-zonal wind field, we know that the stronger symmetry caused by transverse circulation in the two sides of the jet, rainfall’s feedback and reinforcement of jet’s non-zonal characteristics had lead to positive feedback mechanism that was favorable of storm rainfall’s strengthening.     

SENSITIVITY OF PRECIPITATION TO SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE AND ITS DIURNAL VARIATION: A PARTITIONING ANALYSIS BASED ON SURFACE RAINFALL BUDGET

The sensitivity of precipitation to sea surface temperature(SST) and its diurnal variation is investigated through a rainfall partitioning analysis of two-dimensional cloud-resolving model experiments based on surface rainfall budget.For all experiments,the model is set up using zero vertical velocity and a constant zonal wind and is integrated over 40 days to reach quasi-equilibrium states.The 10-day equilibrium grid-scale simulation data and a time-invariant SST of 29°C are used in the control experiment.In the sensitivity experiments,time-invariant SSTs are 27°C and 31°C with an average value of 29°C when the minimum and maximum values of diurnal SST differences are 1°C and 2°C,respectively.The results show that the largest contribution to total rainfall is from the rainfall with water vapor convergence and local atmospheric drying and hydrometeor gain/divergence(~30%) in all experiments.When SST increases from 27°C to 29°C,the contribution from water vapor convergence decreases.The increase of SST reduces the contribution of the rainfall with water vapor convergence primarily through the decreased contribution of the rainfall with local atmospheric drying and hydrometeor gain/divergence and the rainfall with local atmospheric moistening and hydrometeor loss/convergence.The inclusion of diurnal variation of SST with the diurnal difference of 1°C decreases the rainfall contribution from water vapor convergence primarily through the decreased contribution of the rainfall with local atmospheric moistening and hydrometeor loss/convergence.The contribution of the rainfall from water vapor convergence is barely changed as the diurnal difference of SST increases from 1°C to 2°C.