Physics-Based 3-D Simulation for Earthquake Generation Cycles at Plate Interfaces in Subduction Zones

The generation of interplate earthquakes can be regarded as a process of tectonic stress accumulation and release, driven by relative plate motion. We completed a physics-based simulation system for earthquake generation cycles at plate interfaces in the Japan region, where the Pacific plate is descending beneath the North American and Philippine Sea plates, and the Philippine Sea plate is descending beneath the North American and Eurasian plates. The system is composed of a quasi-static tectonic loading model and a dynamic rupture propagation model, developed on a realistic 3-D plate interface model. The driving force of the system is relative plate motion. In the quasi-static tectonic loading model, mechanical interaction at plate interfaces is rationally represented by the increase of tangential displacement discontinuity (fault slip) across them on the basis of dislocation theory for an elastic surface layer overlying Maxwell-type viscoelastic half-space. In the dynamic rupture propagation model, stress changes due to fault slip motion on non-planar plate interfaces are evaluated with the boundary integral equation method. The progress of seismic (dynamic) or aseismic (quasi-static) fault slip on plate interfaces is governed by a slip- and time-dependent fault constitutive law. As an example, we numerically simulated earthquake generation cycles at the source region of the 1968 Tokachi-oki earthquake on the North American-Pacific plate interface. From the numerical simulation, we can see that postseismic stress relaxation in the asthenosphere accelerates stress accumulation in the source region. When the stress state of the source region is close to a critical level, dynamic rupture is rapidly accelerated and develops over the whole source region. When the stress state is much lower than the critical level, the rupture is not accelerated. This means that the stress state realized by interseismic tectonic loading essentially controls the subsequent dynamic rupture process.     

1976年唐山地震震时和震后变形的模拟

本文采用三维粘弹性有限元方法拟合唐山地区１９７６-１９８５年观测到的地震震时和震后的水平与垂直地形变，反演华北板块下方深部物质的流变学性质．模型采用多层弹性覆盖层与线性粘弹性层的有限块体，发展断层面上存在着位错运动，并用正交设计法拟合观测数据．模拟计算表明，华北板块下方软流层粘度为７．１×１０^１８Ｐａ·ｓ；上地幔粘度为２．１×１０^１９Ｐａ·ｓ．     

Forecast model for great earthquakes at the Nankai Trough subduction zone

An earthquake instability model is formulated for recurring great earthquakes at the Nankai Trough subduction zone in southwest Japan. The model is quasistatic, two-dimensional, and has a displacement and velocity dependent constitutive law applied at the fault plane. A constant rate of fault slip at depth represents forcing due to relative motion of the Philippine Sea and Eurasian plates. The model simulates fault slip and stress for all parts of repeated earthquake cycles, including post-, inter-, pre- and coseismic stages. Calculated ground uplift is in agreement with most of the main features of elevation changes observed before and after the M=8.1 1946 Nankaido earthquake. In model simulations, accelerating fault slip has two time-scales. The first time-scale is several years long and is interpreted as an intermediate-term precursor. The second time-scale is a few days long and is interpreted as a short-term precursor. Accelerating fault slip on both time-scales causes anomalous elevation changes of the ground surface over the fault plane of 100 mm or less within 50 km of the fault trace.     

菲律宾群岛深部速度结构成像与双向俯冲板片构造特征

菲律宾群岛受到欧亚板块、菲律宾海板块和印度-澳大利亚板块的碰撞作用,地质环境复杂,构造因素多样.尽管近几年来已经有了少数关于该区域层析成像的研究,但这些研究的区域主要集中在马尼拉海沟、吕宋岛及中菲律宾地区,而关于群岛周围其他海沟和南菲律宾地区的讨论相对较少.到目前为止,还没有同时获得过关于菲律宾群岛深部纵、横波速度结构的研究,本次研究通过反演155779条P波震相和59642条S波震相,同时获得了菲律宾群岛从地表至150 km深度的纵、横波速度结构.地震层析成像结果表明该地区的壳幔速度结构具有较强的不均一性,地壳内部存在着广泛的低速异常,而表征俯冲板块的高速异常则沿着群岛周边的海沟展布.南海块体在马尼拉海沟中段的俯冲角度和俯冲活动性比南段小;菲律宾海板块在东吕宋海槽南段微弱的俯冲作用很有可能同本哈姆海台的碰撞有关.菲律宾群岛大部分M_W>6.0的强震沿着各个板块的边界发生,体现出菲律宾海板块同欧亚板块之间的强耦合作用,群岛西侧的南海块体在马尼拉海沟16°N-20°N之间呈现出的弱耦合状态可能跟北吕宋地区的拉张应力环境有关,南海块体在16°N以南的地区同上覆块体之间的耦合作用较强;群岛东侧的菲律宾海板块在14°N以北的地区没有强震发生,它与菲律宾群岛之间的耦合程度从北向南逐渐增强,在12°N以南的地区要强于12°N以北的地区;此外苏禄海盆和菲律宾构造带之间也存在着强耦合关系.     

DEEP VELOCITY STRUCTURE AND ITS TECTONIC IMPLICATIONS IN SOUTHERN PHILIPPINES

3-D V_P and V_S images of southern Philippines at the 0~100km depths are generated by inverting a large number of travel-time data from the International Seismological Centre(1960-2017)through seismic tomography method. The results show lateral variation exists in the crust and upper mantle:High V_P and V_S anomalies emerge in mid-west Mindanao and Bohol Island, which might be caused by the combined action of huge magmatism and ophiolite accretion in the lower crust; low velocity anomalies of the upper mantle in the west of Mindanao are consistent with locations of volcanoes on the surface. It, thus, could be inferred that the low velocity anomaly is closely related to magmatic activity. The dense earthquake distribution along plate margin extending to 100km coincides with the strong activity of the Philippine Sea Plate which is located in the northeast and southeast of Mindanao. Relative weak activity of Sulawesi Sea Basin is presented simultaneously. The subduction of the Philippine Sea Plate is mostly concentrated in the crust and the top of the uppermost mantle. Our tomographic images show that lateral heterogeneities exist in the crust and uppermost mantle of the southern Philippines. Low V_P and V_S anomalies emerge in Philippine Trench and Cotabato Trench, in contrast, high V_P and V_S anomalies appear in shallow crust of land area where a large number of earthquakes and magmatic activities develop. This may reflect strong tectonic processes between the Philippine Sea Plate and Philippine Mobile Belt. Low V_P and V_S anomalies in the crust of eastern Mindanao coinciding with the location of volcanoes on the surface may show partial melting of crust material caused by dehydration of the subducting Philippine Sea Plate. Such a similar phenomenon can be also seen in the south of Negros Island and Cotabato Trench. Thus we infer that active tectonic behaviors are constrained within the crust of the Philippine Sea Plate, Sulu Sea Basin and Sulawesi Basin.Low V_P and V_S anomalies of the mantle in the mid-west of Mindanao island are associated with magmatic activity which may be caused by a collision between the east and west part of Mindanao at 5Ma. The fracture system in the west of Mindanao provides the possible passage ways of mantle hot material upwelling, coinciding with the model of geothermal distribution in this area. According to the geochemical analysis, ophiolite observed in Sanbaoyan and the western part of Mindanao could indicate material composition from crust to upper mantle on Eurasian continental margin which may show the evidence of rapid expansion environment of mid-ocean ridge. High V_P and V_S anomalies in the mantle of northeast and southeast of Mindanao coinciding with the distribution of massive earthquake along boundaries show a well agreement with the shape of the Philippine Sea Plate. Dense earthquake distribution in south Mindanao at 100km shows the Philippine Sea Plate has strong activity and stress accumulation in the upper mantle. On the contrary, the seismicity in southwest Mindanao and Cotabato Trench reduces rapidly at the depth from 50km to 100km, revealing weak subduciton and stress release of Sulawesi Basin in the mantle.     

Numerical Simulation of Displacement and Stress Fields Associated with the 1993 Kushiro-oki, Japan, Earthquake

—We constructed a three-dimensional finite element model to simulate coseismic and postseismic displacement and stress fields associated with the 1993 Kushiro-oki earthquake, which was a very large intermediate-depth earthquake that occurred within the subducted Pacific plate at a depth of 107 km beneath the southeastern part of Hokkaido, Japan. Taking the configuration of the subducted Pacific plate into account, we constructed a realistic model with lateral heterogeneity of viscoelastic structure. We assigned a variable slip distribution to the fault plane, which was obtained from inversion analysis of near-field seismic waveforms. The result shows that elastic deformation associated with the faulting reflects the assigned inhomogeneous slip distribution on the fault plane near the fault region, while it does not reflect the distribution on the free surface of the model. The calculated postseismic deformation does not reflect the slip distribution, but shows symmetric spatial patterns concerning the dipping direction of the fault both near the fault region and on the model surface. For the next 20 years following the earthquake, the amount of the calculated deformation is a fraction of the coseismic deformation. The calculated coeseismic deformation is large just above and below the fault plane, reaching 1 m, while the postseismic deformation is dominant near the upper and lower material boundaries between the subducted plate and the surrounding asthenosphere. The spatial distribution of maximum shear stress near the fault plane corresponds to the assigned slip distribution, amounting to 32 MPa. The directions of principal stress-change axes represent reverse fault type in the SSE region of the fault, whereas normal fault type is dominant in the NNW region with the exception of some asymmetrical spatial patterns of the principal stress-change axes on the fault due to the inhomogeneous slip distribution. Time variations both in the amount and the directions of stresses are minor, suggesting that the coseismic state of the stress would remain unchanged for two decades after the event.     

VISCOELASTIC STRESS TRANSFER BETWEEN 2008 AND 2014 YUTIAN M7 EARTHQUAKES,XINJIANG

Two earthquakes with magnitude larger than 7.0 occurred in 2008 and 2014 on the southwestern end of the Altyn Tagh Fault, which is located in the northwestern borderland of Tibetan plateau. Occurrences of these two earthquakes provide important insights into regional geodynamics and potential seismic risk. Layered viscoelastic model is employed in the paper to study the interaction between these two events. We find that most of aftershocks were triggered by coseismic stress produced by the 2008 Yutian earthquake, and the effect of this earthquake is insignificant on the occurrence of the 2014 Yutian earthquake. However, stress transfer by viscoelastic relaxation of postseismic deformation is in favor of occurrence of the 2014 Yutian earthquake. The coseismic and postseismic stress transfer produced by the 2014 Yutian earthquake leads to stress increasing on the western segment of the Altyn Tagh Fault. Since the occurrence time of the last major earthquake on the western segment of the Altyn Tagh Fault is tens of years ago, it should have accumulated large moment deficit on the fault segment. The Altyn Tagh Fault should be considered as a fault with high potential seismic risk.     

Recent crustal deformation and the earthquake cycle along the Ecuador-Colombia subduction zone

Recent results from Global Positioning System (GPS) measurements show deformation along the coast of Ecuador and Colombia that can be linked to the rupture zone of the earthquake in 1979. A 3D elastic boundary element model is used to simulate crustal deformation observed by GPS campaigns in 1991, 1994, 1996, and 1998. Deformation in Ecuador can be explained best by 50% apparent locking on the subduction interface. Although there have not been any historic large earthquakes (M_w>7) south of the 1906 earthquake rupture zone, 50% apparent elastic locking is necessary to model the deformation observed there. In Colombia, only 30% apparent elastic locking is occurring along the subduction interface in the 1979 earthquake rupture zone (M_w 8.2), and no elastic locking is necessary to explain the crustal deformation observed at two GPS sites north of there. There is no evidence from seismicity or plate geometry that plate coupling on the subduction zone is reduced in Colombia. However, simple viscoelastic models suggest that the apparent reduction in elastic locking can be explained entirely by the response of a viscous upper mantle to the 1979 earthquake. These results suggest that elastic strain accumulation is occurring evenly throughout the study area, but postseismic relaxation masks the true total strain rate.     

菲律宾海板块与欧亚板块的相互作用及其对东亚构造运动的影响

根据菲律宾海的演化,指出菲律宾海板块的特点:以俯冲边界为主,易于产生形变.将理论结果与地球物理、地质以及GPS测量结果进行比较,发现菲律宾海板块内部及边界有明显形变.讨论了菲律宾海板块与欧亚板块的相互作用,指出其相互作用有明显的分段性.在南海海槽一带有较强的挤压,在琉球海沟一带由于两板块耦合较弱及冲绳海槽的开裂,没有形成对东亚大陆的挤压;台湾附近两板块碰撞,对中国东南形成较强的挤压;在菲律宾群岛一带形成两板块间的复杂变形带,使两板块间的作用减弱.     

GeoFEM Kinematic Earthquake Cycle Simulation in Southwest Japan

— We construct a viscoelastic FEM model with 3-D configuration of the subducting Philippine Sea plate in Southwest Japan to simulate recent 300-year kinematic earthquake cycles along the Nankai-Suruga-Sagami trough, based on the kinematic earthquake cycle model. This 300-year simulation contains a series of three great interplate earthquakes. The inclusion of viscoelasticity produces characteristic velocity field during earthquake cycles regardless of the assumed constant plate coupling throughout the interseismic period. Just after the occurrence of interplate earthquakes, the viscoelastic relaxation creates the seaward motion in the inland region. In the middle period, the seaward motion gradually decreases, and the resultant velocity field is similar to the elastic one. Later, just before the next interplate earthquake, displacements due to the interplate coupling in the viscoelastic material are distributed more broadly in the forearc region than in the purely elastic one, since the viscoelastic relaxation due to the previous earthquake mostly disappears. The effects of such interplate earthquake cycles on five major inland faults in southwest Japan, where large intraplate earthquakes occurred during this period, are quantitatively evaluated using the Coulomb failure function (CFF). The calculated change in CFF successfully predicts the occurrence of the 1995 Kobe earthquake (M～7). The occurrence of other inland earthquakes, however, cannot be explained by the calculated changes in CFF, and especially the 1891 Nobi earthquake (M～8), the largest inland earthquake in Japan, which occurred at the time close to the local minimum of CFF. This implies that further improvements are necessary for our FEM modeling, such as the modeling of steady east-west compressive force and stress interactions between the inland faults.     

Rejuvenated extension of the Philippine Sea plate and its effect on subduction dynamics in the Nankai Trough

The Nankai Trough, Japan, is a subduction zone characterized by the recurrence of disastrous earthquakes and tsunamis. Slow earthquakes and associated tremor also occur intermittently and locally in the Nankai Trough and the causal relationship between slow earthquakes and large earthquakes is important to understanding subduction zone dynamics. The Nankai Trough off Muroto, Shikoku Island, near the southeast margin of the rupture segment of the 1946 Nankai earthquake, is one of three regions where slow earthquakes and tremor cluster in the Nankai Trough. On the Philippine Sea plate, the rifting of the central domain of the Shikoku Basin was aborted at ~15 Ma and underthrust the Nankai forearc off Muroto. Here, the Tosa-Bae seamount and other high-relief features, which are northern extension of the Kinan Seamount chain, have collided with and indented the forearc wedge. In this study, we analyzed seismic reflection profiles around the deformation front of accretionary wedge and stratigraphically correlated them to drilling sites off Muroto. Our results show that the previously aborted horst-and-graben structures, which were formed around the spreading center of the Shikoku Basin at ~15 Ma, were rejuvenated locally at ~6 Ma and more regionally at ~3.3 Ma and have remained active since. The reactivated normal faulting has enhanced seafloor roughness and appears to affect the locations of slow earthquakes and tremors. Rejuvenated normal faulting is not limited to areas near the Nankai Trough, and extends more than 200 km into the Shikoku Basin to the south. This extension might be due to extensional forces applied to the Philippine Sea plate, which appear to be driven by slab-pull in the Ryukyu and Philippine trenches along the western margin of the Philippine Sea plate.     

Interplate Earthquake Fault Slip During Periodic Earthquake Cycles in a Viscoelastic Medium at a Subduction Zone

--A 2-D finite-element-method (FEM) numerical experiment of earthquake cycles at a subduction zone is performed to investigate the effect of viscoelasticity of the earth on great interplate earthquake fault slip. We construct a 2-D viscoelastic FEM model of northeast Japan, which consists of an elastic upper crust and a viscoelastic mantle wedge under gravitation overlying the subducting elastic Pacific plate. Instead of the dislocation model prescribing an amount of slip on a plate interface, we define an earthquake cycle, in which the plate interface down to a depth is locked during an interseismic period and unlocked during coseismic and postseismic periods by changing the friction on the boundary with the master-slave method. This earthquake cycle with steady plate subduction is periodically repeated to calculate the resultant earthquake fault slip.¶As simulated in a previous study (Wang, 1995), the amount of fault slip at the first earthquake cycle is smaller than the total relative plate motion. This small amount of fault slip in the viscoelastic medium was considered to be one factor explaining the small seismic coupling observed at several subduction zones. Our simulation, however, shows that the fault slip grows with an increasing number of repeated earthquake cycles and reaches an amount comparable to the total relative plate motion after more than ten earthquake cycles. This new finding indicates that the viscoelasticity of the earth is not the main factor in explaining the observed small seismic coupling. In comparison with a simple one-degree-of-freedom experiment, we demonstrate that the increase of the fault slip occurs in the transient state from the relaxed initial state to the stressed equilibrium state due to the intermittent plate loading in a viscoelastic medium.     

Anomalous crustal strain prior to the 1923 Kanto,Japan, earthquake as deduced from analysis of old triangulation data

Horizontal earth's strains preceding the Kanto, Japan, earthquake of 1, September 1923, are deduced from the analysis of the old triangulation data. The anomalous strains that are several times larger than usual tectonic strain are found in the western part of Tokyo Bay, Sagamihara district, Japan for the observational period 1882/91–1898/1910, while any significant strain is not revealed in the other region of the Kanto district. The Kanto district was surveyed twice during the period 1883/85–1890/92 in the west and during the period 1890/92–1897/99 in the east respectively. The polarity of the detected anomalous strains, the directions and the signs of the principal strains, are quite the same as those of the postseismic crustal strains during the period 1924–74, and are reversed as compared to the coseismic one.The Philippine Sea plate thrusts under the South Kanto district with N25°W direction and pulls down the land during the interseismic period. The aseismic reverse faulting would begin several decades before the 1923 Kanto earthquake along the deep interface between the Asian plate and the convergent Philippine Sea plate. The down-going along the locked part of the interface would be accelerated, thus the compressional stress on the earth's surface might be concentrated over the deep fault plane together with the acceleration of the subsidence at the tip of the peninsula close to the Sagami trough.     

Determination of Euler parameters of Philippine Sea plate and the inferences

Euler vectors of 12 plates, including Philippine Sea plate (PH), relative to a randomly fixed Pacific plate(PA) were determined by inverting the 1122 data from NUVEL-1 global plate motion model, earthquake slip vectors along Philippine Sea plate boundary, and GPS observed velocities. Euler vectors of Philippine Sea plate relative to adjacent plates are also gained. Our results are well consistent with observed data and can satisfy the geological and geophysical constraints along the Caroline(CR)-PH and PA-CR boundaries. Deformation of Philippine Sea plate is also discussed by using the plate motion Euler parameters.     

Migration of a volcanic front inferred from K–Ar ages of late Miocene to Pliocene volcanic rocks in central Japan

K–Ar ages have been determined for 14 late Miocene to Pliocene volcanic rocks in the north of the Kanto Mountains, Japan, for tracking the location of the volcanic front through the time. These samples were collected from volcanoes located behind the trench–trench–trench (TTT) triple junction of the Pacific, Philippine Sea, and North American plates. This junction is the site of subduction of slabs of the Pacific and the Philippine Sea plates, both of which are thought to have influenced magmatism in this region. The stratigraphy and K–Ar ages of volcanic rocks in the study area indicate that volcanism occurred between the late Miocene and the Pliocene, and ceased before the Pleistocene. Volcanism in adjacent areas of the southern NE Japan and northern Izu–Bonin arcs also occurred during the Pliocene and ceased at around 3 Ma with the westward migration of the volcanic front, as reported previously. Combining our new age data with the existing data shows that before 3 Ma the volcanic front around the TTT junction was located about 50 km east of the preset‐day volcanic front. We suggest that northward subduction of the Philippine Sea Plate slab ended at ～3 Ma as a result of collision between the northern margin of the plate with the surface of the Pacific Plate slab. This collision may have caused a change in the subduction vector of the Philippine Sea Plate from the original north‐directed subduction to the present‐day northwest‐directed subduction. This indicates that the post ～3 Ma westward migration of the volcanic front was a result of this change in plate motion.     

岩石圈结构对大地震震后形变的影响——以1976年唐山大地震和2001年昆仑山大地震为例

大地震发生之后通常会诱发一系列的余震序列,对比1976年M_S7.8唐山大地震和2001年M_S8.1昆仑山大地震周边区域的地震事件可以看出,唐山大地震余震活动时间要明显长于昆仑山大地震余震活动时间.余震序列往往与震后形变密切相关,而影响震后形变的因素不仅与地震发震断层和震级有关,同时与岩石圈的结构有关.考虑到唐山大地震的发震区华北地块和昆仑山大地震的发震区青藏高原有着较大的岩石圈结构差异,本文采用PSGRN/PSCMP软件计算了岩石圈分层模型的大地震同震和震后形变,分析了地壳弹性模量、弹性厚度以及黏滞性系数对同震和震后形变的影响,进而讨论了影响唐山地震和昆仑山地震余震序列差异的原因.计算结果显示,震后形变会在黏弹性效应的作用下逐渐调整,震后形变的持续时间与地壳弹性模量、地壳弹性厚度和下地壳黏滞性系数有关.上地壳和下地壳弹性模量越大,震后形变达到稳定值的时间越短,弹性模量对震后形变稳定值影响很小.地壳弹性厚度越大,震后形变达到稳定值的时间越短,当断层面底端深度小于地壳弹性厚度时,地壳弹性厚度的增加会引起震后形变稳定值的减小;下地壳厚度对震后形变达到稳定值的时间和稳定值基本无影响.下地壳黏滞性系数越大,震后形变达到稳定值的时间越长,反之亦然.结合唐山地震区的华北地块和昆仑山地震的青藏高原深部结构发现,两者之间的上地壳弹性模型差别不大,唐山地震区地壳弹性厚度略大于昆仑山地震区,但昆仑山地震区下地壳黏滞性系数明显低于唐山地震区.这些因素均决定了昆仑山地震的震后形变持续时间短（余震时间序列短）而唐山地震的震后形变持续时间长（余震时间序列长）.由此可见,岩石圈结构差异可能是导致唐山地震和昆仑山地震余震序列差异的主要因素之一.     

中国台湾地区-菲律宾群岛深部纵横波结构成像及其构造意义

使用地震层析成像方法反演了中国台湾地区-菲律宾群岛的1197126条P波震相和1217821条S波震相,首次同时得到了该地区从地表到100km的纵横波速度结构。成像结果揭示了沿着马尼拉海沟向东俯冲的欧亚板块从中国台湾西南部到吕宋岛南端构造形态上的变化;中国台湾中央山脉由于受到造山运动的影响,地壳厚度可达55~60km,而山脉两侧的地壳厚度多为20~35km;此外,成像结果还提供了菲律宾海板块在中国台湾东北部及琉球海沟下方北向俯冲的地球物理学证据;研究区域南部的菲律宾群岛由于同时受到两侧欧亚板块和菲律宾海板块的双向俯冲,使得岛内的岩石圈变形严重,岛弧岩浆和地震活动十分发育;群岛东侧的菲律宾海板块在东吕宋海槽的活动性较弱,很可能是本哈姆海台的碰撞和俯冲所造成的,而菲律宾海板块在菲律宾海沟的俯冲活动则十分强烈,随着深度的增加逐渐向南发展。研究表明,板块俯冲造成了中国台湾地区-菲律宾群岛的地壳及上地幔具有较强的不均一性,这不仅孕育了大量的地震和火山活动,同时也对该地区的地质构造产生了深远的影响。     

2010年马乌莱MW8.8地震震后形变三维黏弹性数值模拟

2010年智利马乌莱MW8.8地震发生在纳斯卡板块与南美板块的板块边界处,引起了显著的同震和震后效应.GPS台网数据显示记录到的同震海向位移最大约5 m,垂向沉降最大约50 cm.在经过对俯冲效应、季节变化等效应的校正后,震后6年的海向最大位移约68 cm,垂向抬升最大约20 cm.马乌莱地震显著的震后形变对该区域的地...     

Postseismic Deformation Following the 2010 $$M = 7.2$$ El Mayor-Cucapah Earthquake: Observations,Kinematic Inversions,and Dynamic Models

Due to its location on a transtensional section of the Pacific-North American plate boundary, the Salton Trough is a region featuring large strike-slip earthquakes within a regime of shallow asthenosphere, high heat flow, and complex faulting, and so postseismic deformation there may feature enhanced viscoelastic relaxation and afterslip that is particularly detectable at the surface. The 2010 \(M = 7.2\) El Mayor-Cucapah earthquake was the largest shock in the Salton Trough since 1892 and occurred close to the US-Mexico border, and so the postseismic deformation recorded by the continuous GPS network of southern California provides an opportunity to study the rheology of this region. Three-year postseismic transients extracted from GPS displacement time-series show four key features: (1) 1–2 cm of cumulative uplift in the Imperial Valley and \(\sim\)1 cm of subsidence in the Peninsular Ranges, (2) relatively large cumulative horizontal displacements \(>\)150 km from the rupture in the Peninsular Ranges, (3) rapidly decaying horizontal displacement rates in the first few months after the earthquake in the Imperial Valley, and (4) sustained horizontal velocities, following the rapid early motions, that were still visibly ongoing 3 years after the earthquake. Kinematic inversions show that the cumulative 3-year postseismic displacement field can be well fit by afterslip on and below the coseismic rupture, though these solutions require afterslip with a total moment equivalent to at least a \(M = 7.2\) earthquake and higher slip magnitudes than those predicted by coseismic stress changes. Forward modeling shows that stress-driven afterslip and viscoelastic relaxation in various configurations within the lithosphere can reproduce the early and later horizontal velocities in the Imperial Valley, while Newtonian viscoelastic relaxation in the asthenosphere can reproduce the uplift in the Imperial Valley and the subsidence and large westward displacements in the Peninsular Ranges. We present two forward models of dynamically coupled deformation mechanisms that fit the postseismic transient well: a model combining afterslip in the lower crust, Newtonian viscoelastic relaxation in a localized zone in the lower crust beneath areas of high heat flow and geothermal activity, and Newtonian viscoelastic relaxation in the asthenosphere; and a second model that replaces the afterslip in the first model with viscoelastic relaxation with a stress-dependent viscosity in the mantle. The rheology of this high-heat-flow, high-strain-rate region may incorporate elements of both these models and may well be more complex than either of them.     

1999年台湾集集地震震后地表变形的力学机制

1999年台湾集集地震震后450天的GPS观测资料显示了几十到几百毫米的地表位移.下地壳的震后黏性松弛和断层无震蠕变产生的震后滑动是用来解释地表震后变形的两个主要机制.本文利用接触问题的黏弹性有限元(LDDA)方法,以GPS观测数据作为约束,分别考察了黏性松弛和震后滑动机制对地表震后变形的影响.计算结果表明,黏性松弛机制产生的地表位移与观测数据吻合较好,通过试错法由震后GPS观测约束得到的下地壳黏度为10¹⁷Pa·s,而上地幔黏度对计算结果影响不大.考察震后滑动机制对地表变形的影响时,在LDDA方法中结合了速率状态摩擦定律,结果显示震后滑动机制不能很好地解释震后450天的观测数据,它产生的地表变形只在震后50天内与观测大致吻合,之后位移值基本不随时间变化.这些结果有助于增进对集集地震震后变形机制的认识.