数值模式垂直分辨率对台风大涡模拟的影响

随着计算能力的提升,台风数值模拟大量采用了大涡尺度模拟,其水平分辨率已达到数10 m的量级,而垂直分辨率提升不大,其问题是数值模式的垂直分辨率对台风大涡模拟的影响如何?因此,本文利用WRF(Weather Research and Forecasting)模式开展理想台风模拟,在不同的模式垂直层次(42,69和90层)...     

基于大涡模拟的冬奥赛区风环境精细化评估

风是北京冬奥会场外赛事考虑的首要气象因素, 精细评估竞赛场地核心区域风环境对赛道施工建设、遴选防风方案及赛事安排非常必要。以北京冬奥会延庆赛区为中心, 将2009—2021年冬奥赛事月份(2—3月)天气环流场进行客观天气环流分型(分为93组), 采用北京城市气象研究院睿图-大涡模式系统对各组的典型个例开展37 m×37 m分辨率风场模拟。利用赛道周边12个自动气象站数据检验结果显示: 2 m温度、10 m风速和风向平均偏差分别为0.45℃, 1.51 m·s-1, 11.23°, 预报技巧较高。基于分型模拟数据获得赛场平均风、极大风分布及大风风险概率, 高山滑雪赛场赛道起点平均风速为15 m·s-1, 超出影响决策点概率为60%, 风险较大; 而赛道中、后段风险较小, 超过影响决策风速概率小于2%。     

大涡技术对模拟台风眼墙替换过程的影响

眼墙替换是影响台风强度和内核结构的一种重要过程。本研究在高分辨率的数值理想试验中加入大涡模拟技术,对比分析大涡模拟对眼墙替换过程的影响。结果表明:大涡模拟的加入使得模拟台风的强度和边界层入流增强。整个眼墙替换过程共用时约20～22 h,但大涡模拟试验中外眼墙形成更迅速,同时强度和上升运动偏弱。外眼墙完全取代内眼墙之后的台风强度超过替换过程之前的强度。此外,使用大涡技术可以更好地模拟出眼墙替换过程中内外眼墙之间的moat区下沉运动,结构特征与前人观测中所发现的结构特征一致。因此,在台风数值研究中引入大涡模拟技术,有助于更好地模拟眼墙替换过程中的台风结构特征和变化。     

台风碧利斯的位涡场分析

利用WRF数值模式对2006年7月14-15日由0604号登陆台风碧利斯（Bilis）引发的特大暴雨过程进行了数值模拟，分析了这次暴雨产生的原因。结果表明：台风自身的非对称结构是暴雨维持的机制；位涡倾斜下传致使深对流出现；低层暖湿空气沿湿等熵面的爬升与下沉冷空气交汇，对流强烈发展，产生暴雨。     

水平非均匀对流边界层热量平衡和平流输送作用的大涡模拟

采用大涡模拟所获的数据结果，分析地面热通量沿平均风方向存在 突变的条件下对流边界层的热量平衡和平流输送作用。分析表明边界层内模拟所得结果 可以很好地满足热量平衡关系。除地面热通量项以外，平流项（包括水平平流和垂直平 流）对边界层加热率的作用可达地面热通量不均匀性差值的大小，是影响边界层内热量 平衡的最重要因子，平均速度散度项对热量平衡的作用也不可忽略，但湍流通量散度项 的作用则很小。     

台风对西南低涡影响的数值模拟与诊断个例分析

利用NCEP再分析资料和MM5中尺度数值预报模式对2004年9月3~6日因西南低涡造成四川盆地和重庆地区特大暴雨天气过程开展了数值模拟和诊断分析。结果表明,在此次特大暴雨天气过程中,西南低涡生成后由于受“桑达”台风的阻塞影响,西南低涡移动速度变慢,强度增大,生命期延长。同时“桑达”台风西侧吹入内陆的东北气流在西南低涡的东南侧转变为西南气流的过程中出现气流辐合并使得水汽迅速聚积,从而触发了在西南低涡附近形成特大暴雨天气过程。     

包含超梯度力作用的台风次级环流诊断方程

次级环流在台风的发展和维持中起着重要作用,基于梯度风平衡的Sawyer Eliassen（SE）方程常用于台风次级环流的诊断。然而梯度风平衡关系在台风边界层及边界附近有较大误差,这导致SE方程求解出的次级环流在边界层也会有较大误差。本文在梯度风平衡方程中保留包含径向摩擦力项在内的超梯度力项,得到包含超梯度力作用的SE方程,从方程形式上看超梯度力主要是通过调节与斜压性相关的系数来影响次级环流的。对“森拉克”（2008）台风次级环流的诊断结果显示,在不人为改变边界层流场结构的情况下,新的SE方程能显著改善次级环流的求解效果,避免眼墙外侧边界层附近的虚假对流并且减小虚假入流。     

“海棠”台风(2005)暴雨过程数值模拟及位涡分析

采用WRF模式对2005年"海棠"台风登陆福建省前后24h内所造成的降水过程进行了数值模拟,在此基础上,利用模式输出结果,借助位涡理论分析位涡与台风低压流场及降水的关系,并结合对风场、相当位温、相对湿度等诊断量的分布特征分析,探讨了台风强降水的发展和维持机制。结果表明,310K等熵面上高位涡发展演变较好反映了台风低压系统路径移动以及强度变化的过程。暴雨中心主要出现在位涡大值区及其偏东北方向,且位涡气块回旋少动,与暴雨的发展维持密切相关。高位涡区主要位于等熵面坡度和梯度最大处,当等熵面上下贯通,对流层高层的高位涡沿等熵面下传,形成位涡柱时,有利于暴雨增幅。台风环流内水汽充足,上升运动强烈,也有助于此次台风降水强度持续强大。     

理想城市建筑群风场的大涡模拟

为了解城市建筑群对周围风场结构的影响,本文利用大涡模拟方法对不同建筑群分布类型下的风场状况进行了模拟,并利用通风指数对风场进行定量评估。模拟结果表明:PALM(Parallelized LES model)能够反映出建筑物影响下风场的结构特征。建筑群风场受到建筑高度、高度方差、分布、初始入流的影响。风场衰减主要体现在水平分量上,尤其是平均高度较高、高度方差大、交错不规整分布使得水平方向风场衰减、通风效果变差,而同时又会使得垂直风速分量w增大,增大垂直方向的空气交换速率。初始入流不会影响风场风廓线形态,在低层风场中平均风速大小以及总体空气交换速率基本与入流成正比关系。     

南京市不同功能分区风场特征的大涡模拟研究

本文选取南京市新街口商业区和白下路居民区作为典型研究区域,利用大涡模式(Parallelized Large Eddy Simulation Model,PALM)模拟不同入流风速和风向对流场的影响。结果表明,不同入流风速条件下归一化风廓线基本一致,风廓线总体上主要受到功能区自身建筑物形态的影响,在中性层结下城市冠层内平均风速随高度的变化接近于指数分布。而本文计算得到的指数风廓线衰减系数的范围为0.55~0.81,高于目前城市冠层模式中的默认值,说明目前的城市冠层模式对建筑物密集区域的风速衰减可能存在低估。风速衰减系数主要受迎风面面积的影响,随迎风面积指数的增加而增大。迎风面积指数随入流风向发生改变,在本文研究的商业区和居民区中,行人高度风速随入流风向的改变最大下降幅度可分别达8%和10%。行人高度风速一般在与入流风向平行的街道和开阔的空地上较大,在建筑物密集分布的区域风速较低,由于强烈的狭管效应部分区域的风速可以超过入流风速。不同城市结构中入流风向的影响也不同,在十字路口、对称和非对称街谷以及多排建筑物中局地风场随入流风向存在各种变化。     

大涡模拟模式研究对流层湍流

利用三维大涡模拟模式研究不同地面热力状况和风切变对湍流产生的影响，在对流层湍流发展过程中，这两种作用是同时存在的、同时起作用，水平风速的瞬时垂直切变可以在自由大气中激发湍流，但它不能维持很长时间，对流热泡也可以在自由大气中激发湍流，其湍流强度与地面的热量强度有关。     

我国登陆台风引起的大风分布特征的初步分析

用1949～2001年我国台风大风实测纪录对此期间台风引起的大风进行研究,具体分析了台风引起的6级及以上、8级及以上大风的频数,和大风风速的平均值、极端最大值的分布特征,并对台风登陆的地段、季节对上述要素的影响和台风登陆前、后上述要素的变化做了进一步分析.结果表明:在引起我国境内大风天气的台风中,有62%在我国登陆;而登陆我国的台风中,有89%会引起大风过程.台风引起的我国境内大风主要出现在东南沿海,等频数线几乎与海岸线平行,向内陆急剧减小,在杭州湾以北地区较少出现8级以上的台风大风,而极端最大风速与大风频数有类似的分布;在华南登陆的台风引起的大风频数明显高于华东和华北,华东又高于华北,引起的大风风速的大值区与登陆地段较为一致;登陆台风在4～8月间逐渐增多,引起的大风范围逐步向北推进,在9～11月间登陆台风逐渐减少,大风范围逐步往南消退;台风登陆前引起的大风主要集中在沿海地带,登陆后台风大风出现范围明显扩大.     

一种台风海面非对称风场的构造方法

针对台风数值预报中由于采用对称模型而导致预报误差的现实，通过引入非对称分布的台风最大风速、最大风速半径等因子，在得到台风报告中7级风和10级风的半径的基础上，利用最佳权系数方案来得到非对称的台风外围风速分布因子，从而对Chan and Williams 1987年提出的切向风廓线方案进行改造，进而得到了台风海面非对称风场的计算式。检验表明，该方法能够描述台风海面风场的非对称分布，具有较好的应用前景。     

CORRECTION OF ASYMMETRIC STRENGTHENING OF QUIKSCAT WIND FIELD AND ASSIMILATION APPLICATION IN TYPHOON SIMULATION

As an approach to the technological problem that the wind data of QuikSCAT scatterometercannot accurately describe the zone of typhoon-level strong wind speed, some objective factors such as thetyphoon moving speed, direction and friction are introduced in this study to construct the asymmetricstrengthening of the QuikSCAT wind field. Then by adopting a technology of four-dimensional dataassimilation, an experiment that includes both the assimilation and forecasting phases is designed tosimulate Typhoon Rananim numerically. The results show that with model constraints and adjustment, thistechnology can incorporate the QuikSCAT wind data to the entire column of the model atmosphere,improve greatly the simulating effects of the whole-column wind, pressure field and the track as well as thesimulated typhoon intensity covered by the forecast phase, and work positively for the forecasting oflandfall locations.     

登陆台风动能平衡和转换的诊断

对一次登陆台风及其外围暴雨和环境的动能平衡以及天气尺度动能与中尺度扰动动能的转换进行了诊断分析，指出摩擦消耗和动能的水平输出是台风的主要能汇。台风消亡期间，外围暴雨区动能增大，动能制造项Ｇｋ是暴雨区的主要能源。Ｇｋ的增大可能与天气尺度动能转换成中尺度扰动引起暴雨的发展相联系。     

对流边界层的大涡模拟研究

本文建立了一个均匀平坦地面上对流边界层的大涡模式,模式考虑了水汽,采用了考虑浮力和固壁影响订正的一阶闭合。并用所建模式进行了由热扰动发展的对流边界层的模拟及其对地表热状况变化响应的初步探讨性模拟工作。通过模拟认为,模式较好地反映了对流边界层的主要结构。     

CHARACTERISTICS OF THE OFFSHORE EXTREME WIND LOAD PARAMETERS FOR WIND TURBINES DURING STRONG TYPHOON HAGUPIT

Observational data of the severe typhoon Hagupit are obtained by a 3-dimensional ultrasonic anemometer which is installed on a 100-meter-high meteorological tower located at an islet off the coast of Guangdong.The characteristics of the extreme wind load parameters for offshore wind turbines under the influence of extreme winds at severe typhoon intensity are analyzed.By comparing the observed data with the results derived from the International Electrotechnical Commission (IEC) standard 61400-1,the applicability of the methods computing extreme wind load parameters in the IEC standard are investigated under typhoon conditions.The results are as follows.(1) The changes of both the offshore extreme gust wind speeds and the extreme wind directions render a "M" shape bi-modal distribution with peak values in the eyewall region of Hagupit.(2) There are significant differences of amplitudes of the observed extreme operating gust wind speeds and extreme wind direction from the results calculated from the IEC standard.(3) The amplitudes of both the extreme operating gust wind speeds and the extreme directions exceed the upper limits of the IEC standard for three standard classes of wind turbines,and the values calculated by IEC standard are much significantly larger than the measured ones.(4) The observed extreme operating gust wind speeds are consistent with the results calculated by the IEC standard when wind turbines are under full or partial workload or cut-off conditions,although the amplitude of extreme wind directions calculated in terms of the IEC standard is larger than that of direct measurements.Measured extreme operating gust wind speeds sometimes exceed the IEC design criteria.     

曲率修正线性平衡方程及其在变分同化风压约束中的应用

针对强涡旋系统（热带气旋、一些中尺度系统）变分同化分析中风压平衡约束关系的特点,提出了一个新的风压平衡约束关系——曲率修正线性平衡方程,它具有形式与线性平衡方程相同,并清晰地包含了曲率的作用,同时,当曲率较小时可退化成线性平衡方程。曲率修正线性平衡方程能方便地应用于中国数值预报研究中心开发的三维变分同化分析系统Grapes3DV中,试验结果证明其具有较好的效果和较理想的特性,提高了分析质量,并改善预报水平。     

ANALYSES OF WIND STRUCTURE OF TYPHOON FUNG-WONG (2008) AND ITS RELATION TO PRECIPITATION REGION

Using real analysis data of 1°×1° resolution of the National Center for EnvironmentalPrediction/National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCEP/NCAR), the nondivergent wind componentand irrotational wind component obtained by the harmonic-cosine(H-C) method, and the wind structure ofTyphoon Fung-Wong (coded 0808 in China) in 2008 was analyzed. The results indicated that theirrotational component was advantageous over the total wind in reflecting both the changes in convergentheight and the asymmetrical convergence of Fung-Wong. In Fung-Wong, the nondivergent component waslarger than the irrotational component, but the latter was much more variable than the former, which wasobtained only from the wind partition method. Further analyses on the irrotational componentdemonstrated that the location of the convergent center at lower levels was almost the same as thedivergent center during the development of Fung-Wong, and its convergent level was high in its life cycle,with the most highest up to 400 hPa when it became stronger. After the typhoon landed in the provinces ofTaiwan and Fujian, respectively, its convergent center at lower levels was slowly detached from thedivergent center at high levels and the convergent height was also depressed from high levels to lowerlevels. Gradually, this weakened the intensity of Fung-Wong. This kind of weakening was slow andFung-Wong maintained its circulation for a long time over land because of its very thick convergent height.Analyses on wind partitioning provided one possible explanation to why Fung-Wong stayed for a long timeafter it landed. Furthermore, the asymmetric vertical ascending motion was induced by the asymmetricconvergence at lower levels. In general, when typhoons (such as Fung-Wong) land, the rainfall regioncoincides with that of the convergence region (indicated by the irrotational component at lower layers).This means that the possible rainfall regions may be diagnosed from the convergent area of the irrotationalcomponent. For an observational experiment on typhoons, the convergent region may be considered as akey observational region.     

NUMERICAL SIMULATION ON THE WIND FIELD STRUCTURE OF A MOUNTAINOUS AREA BESIDE SOUTH CHINA SEA DURING THE LANDFALL OF TYPHOON MOLAVE

Leveraging the commercial CFD software FLUENT, the fine-scale three-dimensional wind structure over the Paiya Mountains on the Dapeng Peninsula near Shenzhen, a city on the seashore of South China Sea, during the landfall of Typhoon Molave has been simulated and analyzed. Through the study, a conceptual wind structure model for mountainous areas under strong wind condition is established and the following conclusions are obtained as follows： （1） FLUENT can reasonably simulate a three-dimensional wind structure over mountainous areas under strong wind conditions; （2） the kinetic effect of a mountain can intensify wind speed in the windward side of the mountain and the area over the mountain peak; and （3） in the leeward side of the mountain, wind speed is relatively lower with relatively stronger wind shear and turbulence.