Some characteristics of very heavy rainfall over Orissa during summer monsoon season

Orissa is one of the most flood prone states of India. The floods in Orissa mostly occur during monsoon season due to very heavy rainfall caused by synoptic scale monsoon disturbances. Hence a study is undertaken to find out the characteristic features of very heavy rainfall (24 hours rainfall ≥125 mm) over Orissa during summer monsoon season (June–September) by analysing 20 years (1980–1999) daily rainfall data of different stations in Orissa. The principal objective of this study is to find out the role of synoptic scale monsoon disturbances in spatial and temporal variability of very heavy rainfall over Orissa. Most of the very heavy rainfall events occur in July and August. The region, extending from central part of coastal Orissa in the southeast towards Sambalpur district in the northwest, experiences higher frequency and higher intensity of very heavy rainfall with less interannual variability. It is due to the fact that most of the causative synoptic disturbances like low pressure systems (LPS) develop over northwest (NW) Bay of Bengal with minimum interannual variation and the monsoon trough extends in west-northwesterly direction from the centre of the system. The very heavy rainfall occurs more frequently with less interannual variability on the western side of Eastern Ghat during all the months and the season except September. It occurs more frequently with less interannual variability on the eastern side of Eastern Ghat during September. The NW Bay followed by Gangetic West Bengal/Orissa is the most favourable region of LPS to cause very heavy rainfall over different parts of Orissa except eastern side of Eastern Ghat. The NW Bay and west central (WC) Bay are equally favourable regions of LPS to cause very heavy rainfall over eastern side of Eastern Ghat. The frequency of very heavy rainfall does not show any significant trend in recent years over Orissa except some places in north-east Orissa which exhibit significant rising trend in all the monsoon months and the season as a whole.     

Synoptic weather conditions during the pilot study of Bay of Bengal and Monsoon Experiment (BOBMEX)

BOBMEX-Pilot was organised from 23rd October–11th November, 1998 when the seasonal trough had already shifted to south Bay of Bengal. The activity during this period was marked by the development of a monsoon depression from 26th–29th October that weakened over the sea; onset of northeast monsoon along the east coast of India on 29th October; a low pressure area that formed on 2nd November over southwest Bay off Sri Lanka — southTamilnadu coast; and another cyclonic circulation that formed towards the end of the BOBMEX-Pilot period. This paper describes the development of these synoptic systems through synoptic charts and satellite data.     

The interannual variability of mid-latitude meridional circulation and its teleconnection with Indian monsoon activity

The statistical relationship between the summer monsoon rainfall over all India, northwest India and peninsular India, onset dates of monsoon and the index of mid latitude, (35° to 70°N) meridional circulation at 500 hPa level over different sectors and hemisphere based on 19 years (1971–1989) data, have been examined. The results indicate that (i) the summer monsoon rainfalls over all India, northwest India and peninsular India show a significant inverse relationship with the strength of meridional index during previous January over sector 45°W to 90°E. (ii) The summer monsoon rainfalls over all India and peninsular India show a significant inverse relationship with the strength of meridional index during previous December over sector 90°E to 160°E, (iii) The summer monsoon rainfall over northwest India shows a significant direct relationship with the meridional index during previous May over sector 160°E to 45°W. Significant negative relationships are also observed between the meridional circulation indices of previous October (sector 3 and 4), previous December (sectors 1, 3 and 4), previous winter season (sector 3 and 4) and the onset dates of summer monsoon over India. The meridional circulation index thus can have some possible use for long range forecasting of monsoon rainfall over all India, northwest India and peninsular India, as well as the onset dates of monsoon.     

Spatio-temporal variability of summer monsoon rainfall over Orissa in relation to low pressure systems

The summer monsoon rainfall over Orissa occurs mostly due to low pressure systems (LPS) developing over the Bay of Bengal and moving along the monsoon trough. A study is hence undertaken to find out characteristic features of the relationship between LPS over different regions and rain-fall over Orissa during the summer monsoon season (June-September). For this purpose, rainfall and rainy days over 31 selected stations in Orissa and LPS days over Orissa and adjoining land and sea regions during different monsoon months and the season as a whole over a period of 20 years (1980-1999) are analysed. The principal objective of this study is to find out the role of LPS on spatial and temporal variability of summer monsoon rainfall over Orissa. The rainfall has been significantly less than normal over most parts of Orissa except the eastern side of Eastern Ghats during July and hence during the season as a whole due to a significantly less number of LPS days over northwest Bay in July over the period of 1980-1999. The seasonal rainfall shows higher interannual variation (increase in coefficient of variation by about 5%) during 1980-1999 than that during 1901-1990 over most parts of Orissa except northeast Orissa. Most parts of Orissa, especially the region extending from central part of coastal Orissa to western Orissa (central zone) and western side of the Eastern Ghats get more seasonal monsoon rainfall with the development and persistence of LPS over northwest Bay and their subsequent movement and persistence over Orissa. The north Orissa adjoining central zone also gets more seasonal rainfall with development and persistence of LPS over northwest Bay. While the seasonal rainfall over the western side of the Eastern Ghats is adversely affected due to increase in LPS days over west central Bay, Jharkhand and Bangladesh, that over the eastern side of the Eastern Ghats is adversely affected due to increase in LPS days over all the regions to the north of Orissa. There are significant decreasing trends in rainfall and number of rainy days over some parts of southwest Orissa during June and decreasing trends in rainy days over some parts of north interior Orissa and central part of coastal Orissa during July over the period of 1980-1999     

南海海-气通量交换研究进展

1998年的"南海季风试验(SCSMEX)"已经过去10年了,SCSMEX启动的南海海-气通量试验研究也有10个年头.在SCSMEX和国家自然科学基金面上项目"南海季风爆发期近海面层通量观测和湍流结构的观测研究"支持下,10年来在西沙实施了3次(1998年、2000年、2002年)海-气通量观测试验,开展了试验资料分析研究,重点是西南季风爆发前后海-气通量交换过程研究,辐射通量、感热通量、潜热通量、动量通量随天气条件的变化研究,海-气通量日变化,通量交换系数以及通量变化对低层大气、上层海洋的影响研究.对10年来南海通量研究作一回顾,对未来的通量观测研究计划特别是2008"亚洲季风年"西沙通量观测提出一些建议.     

Early prediction of onset of south west monsoon from ERS-1 scatterometer winds

Detailed analysis of the surface winds over the Indian Ocean derived from ERS-1 scatterometer data during the years 1993 and 1994 has been used to understand and unambiguously identify the onset phase of south-west monsoon. Five day (pentad) averaged wind vectors for the period April to June during both years have been examined to study the exact reversal of wind direction as well as the increase in wind speed over the Arabian Sea in relation to the onset of monsoon over the Indian west coast (Kerala). The related upper level humidity available from other satellites has also been analysed. The results of our analysis clearly show a consistent dramatic reversal in wind direction over the western Arabian Sea three weeks in advance of the onset of monsoon. The wind speed shows a large increase coinciding with the onset of monsoon. These findings together show the dominant role of sea surface winds in establishing the monsoon circulation. The study confirms that the cross equatorial current phenomenon becomes more important after the onset of monsoon.     

Surface and upper air meteorological features during onset phase of 2003 monsoon

The second campaign of the Arabian Sea Monsoon Experiment (ARMEX-II) was conducted in two phases viz., March–April and May–June 2003. In the present work, the buoy and ocean research vessel data collected during the second phase of ARMEX-II have been analysed to bring out the characteristic features of monsoon onset. The results have shown that the thermodynamical features such as build up of lower tropospheric instability and increased height of zero degree isotherm occurred about a week before the monsoon onset over Kerala and adjoining southeast Arabian Sea. There was a sharp fall in the temperature difference between 850 and 500 hPa, and the height of zero degree isotherm about 2–3 days before the monsoon onset. The flux of sensible heat was positive (sea to air) over south Arabian Sea during the onset phase. Over the Bay of Bengal higher negative (air to sea) values of sensible flux prevailed before the monsoon onset which became less negative with the advance of monsoon over that region. The pre-onset period was characterized by large sea surface temperature (SST) gradient over the Arabian Sea with rapid decrease towards north of the warm pool region. The buoy observations have shown that SST remained close to 30.5°C in the warm pool region during the pre-onset period in 2003 but only 2–3 degrees away (north of this region) SSTs were as low as 28.5–29°C. An interesting aspect of sea level pressure (SLP) variability over the Indian seas during the onset phase of summer monsoon 2003 was undoubtedly, the highest SLP in the warm pool region inspite of very high SSTs.     

Temporal characteristics of the Indian southwest monsoon

In this study, we elucidate the temporal characteristics of the onset and withdrawal of the Indian southwest monsoon, making use of the model integration and daily analyses of the National Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasting, India. The onset of the Indian southwest monsoon over the Bay of Bengal is discernable by a gradual increase in the adiabatic generation of kinetic energy, while over the Arabian Sea it is first noticeable by a steep and abrupt increase of generation. The horizontal transport of heat indicates a convergence regime over the Bay of Bengal prior to onset, while over the Arabian Sea a convergence regime is indicated by a change from the divergence to the convergence regime. The withdrawal of the southwest monsoon is characterized by the horizontal transport of heat and moisture that evince a transition from the convergence to divergence regime; similarly, diabatic heating noticed during the active period changes to cooling. The withdrawal over the Arabian Sea is characterized by the divergence regime of the horizontal transport of moisture. This change precedes even the circulation changes over northwest India, which may be regarded as a precursor. The withdrawal is further supported by a monotonic decrease in the net tropospheric moisture over the Arabian Sea, followed by a similar change at land locations.     

Wind profiles in the boundary layer over Kharagpur associated with synoptic scale systems

Doppler sodar wind data for the boundary layer over Kharagpur obtained during MONTBLEX-1990 at a height interval of 30 m from surface up to 1500 m have been analysed for the periods when intense synoptic scale disturbances from north Bay of Bengal moved along the eastern end of the monsoon trough. The variation in the vertical wind profile in the lower boundary layer over Kharagpur during the passage of synoptic scale disturbances has been discussed in the paper. The analysis indicates that the mean winds over Kharagpur veered with height in the lower boundary layer near the surface suggesting divergence over Kharagpur when the system lay south/southwest of the station. No such veering has been noticed when the centre of the system lay very close to the station.     

Heat islands over Mumbai as revealed by autorecorded thermograph data

This study examined hourly temperature data of two locations of Mumbai metropolitan city. One data point (Coloba, Mumbai) is in centre of the city and the other one (Santacruz, Mumbai) is at the airport. The study finds that there were many occasions when night-time hourly temperatures over the city centre were considerably higher than that of the airport, even though temperature at the time of sunset at both the places was nearly same. In this study, the occasions, when hourly night-time temperature over city was more than that of the airport by objectively defined threshold value (3.0 ^°C in this study) for most of the hours in the night, were termed as heat island events. Analysis of the study reveals that these events are mostly confined to November–February months. The study also found that frequency of such events has doubled in recent two decades in comparison to the earlier two decades.     

新德里季风降水中过量氘与季风水汽来源

收集和分析了新德里降水中同位素资料(δ¹⁸O和δD),利用季风水线方程对个别年份缺测的δD资料进行估计,建立了新德里36 a夏季过量氘序列.基于降水中过量氘和水汽源区相对湿度关系考虑,利用NCEP/NCAR再分析资料,研究了新德里夏季过量氘序列和水汽源区相对湿度的关系.研究发现,西阿拉伯海相对湿度变化和新德里季风降水中过量氘变化较为一致.结合西阿拉伯海风速和印度西北地区季风降水量资料分析结果,认为西阿拉伯海是新德里季风水汽的主要来源.     

A global context for megadroughts in monsoon Asia during the past millennium

Proxy reconstructions of precipitation from central India, north-central China, and southern Vietnam reveal a series of monsoon droughts during the mid 14th–15th centuries that each lasted for several years to decades. These monsoon megadroughts have no analog during the instrumental period. They occurred in the context of widespread thermal and hydrologic climate anomalies marking the onset of the Little Ice Age (LIA) and appear to have played a major role in shaping significant regional societal changes at that time. New tree ring-width based reconstructions of monsoon variability suggest episodic and widespread reoccurrences of monsoon megadroughts continued throughout the LIA. Although the El-Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) plays an important role in monsoon variability, there is no conclusive evidence to suggest that these megadroughts were associated with anomalous sea surface temperature anomalies that were solely the result of ENSO-like variability in the tropical Pacific. Instead, the causative mechanisms of these megadroughts may reside in protracted changes in the synoptic-scale monsoon climatology of the Indian Ocean. Today, the intra-seasonal monsoon variability is dominated by ‘active’ and the ‘break’ spells – two distinct oscillatory modes of monsoon that have radically different synoptic scale circulation and precipitation patterns. We suggest that protracted locking of the monsoon into the “break-dominated” mode – a mode that favors reduced precipitation over the Indian sub-continent and SE Asia and enhanced precipitation over the equatorial Indian Ocean, may have caused these exceptional droughts. Impetus for periodic locking of the monsoon into this mode may have been provided by cooler temperatures at the extratropical latitudes in the Northern Hemisphere which forced the mean position of the Inter-Tropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) further southward in the Indian Ocean.     

Characteristics of certain surface meteorological parameters in relation to the interannual variability of Indian summer monsoon

With an objective to understand the influence of surface marine meteorological parameters in relation to the extreme monsoon activity over the Indian sub-continent leading to flood/drought, a detailed analysis of the sea level pressure over the Southern Hemisphere and various surface meteorological parameters over the Indian seas is carried out. The present study using the long term data sets (Southern Hemispheric Sea Level Pressure Analysis; Comprehensive Ocean Atmospheric Data Set over the Indian Seas; Surface Station Climatology Data) clearly indicates that the sea surface temperature changes over the south eastern Pacific (El Ninõ/La Niña) have only a moderate impact (not exceeding 50% reliability) on the Indian summer monsoon activity. On the other hand, the sea level pressure anomaly (SOI) over Australia and the south Pacific has a reasonably high degree of significance (more than 70%) with the monsoon activity over India. However, these two parameters (SLP and SST) do not show any significant variability over the Indian seas in relation to the summer monsoon activity. Over the Indian seas, the parameters which are mainly associated with the convective activity such as cloud cover, relative humidity and the surface wind were found to have a strong association with the extreme monsoon activity (flood/drought) and thus the net oceanic heat loss over the Indian seas provides a strong positive feed-back for the monsoon activity over India.     

A study of the empirical functions of the height fields over India and their relation with the rainfall

The empirical orthogonal functions have been obtained for the individual summer monsoon (June through September) months using the grid point values of monthly 700 mb geopotential heights over Indian region. The data for 21 summer monsoon months for the years 1958 to 1978 have been used in the present computation. The major variance reduction is due to the first three dominant functions accounting over 80% of the total variance in each month. The variance reduction only due to the first function ranges from 45 to 65%. The first function has in-pbase oscillation throughout the area indicating that the area under study is homogeneous and the centre of the oscillation lies over northwest India. The amplitudes of the first function also show generally quasipers stence in their sign within a season. The second function has two centres of action over the region of monsoon trough which are in phase. The third function has also two centres oriented in the east-west direction but they are in the opposite phase. Fairly large values of correlation coefficients between the patterns of the different monsoon months suggest that the patterns for these months corresponding to the first and the second functions respectively are quite similar. The patterns for these months also evolve with time in a related way. The spectrum analysis to the time series of amplitudes indicates the presence of the quasi-periodicity of 3 years during these monsoon months. The amplitudes corresponding to the dominant functions are found to be significantly related with the rainfall of central and western parts of India     

Role of land state in a high resolution mesoscale model for simulating the Uttarakhand heavy rainfall event over India

In 2013, Indian summer monsoon witnessed a very heavy rainfall event (>30 cm/day) over Uttarakhand in north India, claiming more than 5000 lives and property damage worth approximately 40 billion USD. This event was associated with the interaction of two synoptic systems, i.e., intensified subtropical westerly trough over north India and north-westward moving monsoon depression formed over the Bay of Bengal. The event had occurred over highly variable terrain and land surface characteristics. Although global models predicted the large scale event, they failed to predict realistic location, timing, amount, intensity and distribution of rainfall over the region. The goal of this study is to assess the impact of land state conditions in simulating this severe event using a high resolution mesoscale model. The land conditions such as multi-layer soil moisture and soil temperature fields were generated from High Resolution Land Data Assimilation (HRLDAS) modelling system. Two experiments were conducted namely, (1) CNTL (Control, without land data assimilation) and (2) LDAS, with land data assimilation (i.e., with HRLDAS-based soil moisture and temperature fields) using Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) modelling system. Initial soil moisture correlation and root mean square error for LDAS is 0.73 and 0.05, whereas for CNTL it is 0.63 and 0.053 respectively, with a stronger heat low in LDAS. The differences in wind and moisture transport in LDAS favoured increased moisture transport from Arabian Sea through a convectively unstable region embedded within two low pressure centers over Arabian Sea and Bay of Bengal. The improvement in rainfall is significantly correlated to the persistent generation of potential vorticity (PV) in LDAS. Further, PV tendency analysis confirmed that the increased generation of PV is due to the enhanced horizontal PV advection component rather than the diabatic heating terms due to modified flow fields. These results suggest that, two different synoptic systems merged by the strong interaction of moving PV columns resulted in the strengthening and further amplification of the system over the region in LDAS. This study highlights the importance of better representation of the land surface fields for improved prediction of localized anomalous weather event over India.     

Sea surface temperature variability over North Indian Ocean — A study of two contrasting monsoon seasons

Using the satellite derived sea surface temperature (SST) data for 1979 (bad monsoon) and 1983 (good monsoon), the SST variability for two contrasting monsoon seasons is studied. The study indicates that large negative anomalies off the Somali and Arabian coasts are associated with good monsoon rainfall over India. The strong monsoonal cooling in these regions can be attributed to strong low level winds and intense upwelling. The reappearance of 27°C isotherm off Somali coast in May/June coincides with the onset of southwest monsoon over India. Further, the influence of zonal anomaly of SST off Somalia Coast (SCZASST) and Central Indian Ocean Zonal Anomaly of SST (CIOZASST) with monsoon rainfall over India is brought out. The former is negatively related to the monsoon rainfall over western and central parts of India, whilst CIOZASST is positively related.     

Dominant impact of South Asian low heat on summer monsoon rainfall over Central India

Although previous literature have considered Southern Oscillation Index (SOI), Indian Dipole, and SST as the major teleconnection patterns to explain the variability of summer monsoon rainfall over India. South Asia low pressure and Indian Ocean high are the centers of action that dominates atmospheric circulations in Indian continent. This paper examines the possible impact of South Asian low pressure distribution on the variability of summer monsoon rainfall of India using centers of action approach. Our analysis demonstrates that the explanation of summer monsoon rainfall variability over Central India is improved significantly if the SOI is replaced by South Asian low heat. This contribution also explains the physical mechanisms to establish the relationships between the South Asian low heat and regional climate by examining composite maps of large-scale circulation fields using NCEP/NCAR Reanalysis data.     

Global features of sea-level pressure distribution in April and July associated with contrasting situations of Indian summer monsoon

Global sea-level pressure distribution has been analysed for the months of April and July for 5 years of contrasting situations of Indian summer monsoon, comprising of two drought years (1972 and 1974), a flood year (1975) and two normal monsoon years (1970 and 1973). Mean monthly sea-level pressure data at about 400 stations have been used in the study. Prominent features of pressure departures from long-term normals have also been noted. It is observed that the month of April shows more prominent contrasting features than July. In April, the high pressure centres over USSR and the North Pacific move considerably eastward during poor monsoon years, while a breakaway cell of Icelandic Low goes deep south. Both the high pressure areas over south Indian Ocean and Australia are stronger in good monsoon years. In July, the subtropical high pressure zone over the southern Indian Ocean is stronger and the Australian high is more eastward, in good monsoon years.     

青藏高原与全球环境变化研究进展

文章从 4个方面简要介绍了青藏高原与全球环境变化的最新研究进展 :(1)新生代青藏高原的隆升过程与东亚环境演化 ;(2 )末次间冰期以来的气候环境记录及重大气候突变事件 ;(3)青藏高原2ka以来温度、降水变化特征 ;(4 )青藏高原近代气候变化及其环境响应。主要结论有 :第三纪青藏地区曾两次隆升与夷平 ;7MaBP开始高原再次抬升 ,3 6MaBP以来经历了强烈隆起。高原季风的形成演化与高原隆升过程紧密相联 ,2 5MaBP高原季风由浅薄系统变为深厚系统 ,现代季风格局形成。在约 1 1～ 0 8MaBP间青藏高原进入冰冻圈 ,西北地区干旱化、主要沙漠扩展、周边地区新的黄土体系形成均与此有关。高原气候在冰期 /间冰期循环时间尺度上具有升温缓慢、降温迅速的特征。达索普冰芯记录中的CH4 浓度高出极区 15 %～ 2 0 %,并具有很大的波动性。青藏高原最新的一次大湖期时代在 40～ 2 5ka ,代表着一次特强的夏季风暖湿事件。古里雅冰芯研究发现气候突变事件频繁。高海拔地区比低海拔地区对全球气候变化反应更敏感。根据冰芯、湖芯、树轮和历史文献恢复揭示了2ka以来高原温度降水变化特征。百年来青藏高原气候经历了 3次突变 ,2 0世纪 5 0年代以来的变暖趋势超过北半球及同纬度地区。高原冰冻圈 (包括冰川、积雪和冻土 )对近代     

Simulation of high-impact tropical weather events: comparative analysis of three heavy rainfall events

Episodes of heavy rainfall, although relatively rare, significantly contribute to the hydrological cycle due to the large quantum of rainfall in a short span of time. Accurate simulation of such heavy or extreme rainfall events therefore is an important benchmark for a model. Here, we consider the simulation of three heavy rainfall events (Mumbai, Bangalore and Chennai) that occurred over the Indian monsoon region in different geographical locations and seasons during 2005, using a mesoscale meteorological model, namely MM5V3. Simulations have been carried out at high resolution (2 km) to resolve orographic features and land–ocean gradients over the event locations with a 3-nest, 2-way configuration. The primary objective of this study is to carry out a multi-event, multi-location evaluation of the model configuration for simulating a class of heavy rainfall events and to compare some important meteorological features of the events. Our results have shown that a very high relative humidity, low-level convergence, convective instability in terms of equivalent potential temperature, high vertical velocity, smaller mixing ratio at low level and higher mixing ratio at upper level essentially dominated and sustained the convective dynamics in all the three events. It was also found that the latent heat flux (LHF) dominated coastal events (Mumbai and Chennai) with relatively much higher values compared to sensible heat flux (SHF) throughout the event life cycle. In the case of the Bangalore event, both LHF and SHF are comparable during the event life cycle.