Long-term trend analysis of water table using ‘MAKESENS’ model and sustainability of groundwater resources in drought prone Barind area,NW Bangladesh

In Bangladesh, agriculture plays a major role in the national economy. In the drought prone Barind area in NW Bangladesh, cropping intensity has increased almost double since late eighties of last century (from 1985) because of the introduction of groundwater irrigation. Long-term behavior of groundwater table (GWT) in the drought prone Barind area has been studied using MAKESENS model in the wake of massive installation of tube-wells. The study reveals that the maximum and minimum depths to GWT during 1991-2010 show on average declining trend of 4.51 m and 4.73 m. The long-term prediction for the period of 2020-50 assuming the current rate of groundwater withdrawal is that the declining trend will be 1.16 to 1.59 and 1.07 to 1.82 times more for maximum and minimum groundwater depths respectively in comparison to the present. The rigorous exploitation of groundwater for irrigation, decreasing rainfall and surface geological attributes lead towards declining trend of GWT. This will hamper the country’s food security and ultimately threaten its socio-economic sustainability. So the appropriate strategies for the management of groundwater resource on a sustainable basis should be the priority for maintaining agricultural productivity.     

Comparison of 1982–1983 and 1997–1998 El Niño effects on the shallow-water fish assemblage of the Patos Lagoon estuary (Brazil)

Meteorological impacts of El Niño events of 1982–1983 and 1997–1998 were observed in locations throughout the world. In southern Brazil, El Niño events are associated with increased rainfall and higher freshwater discharge into Patos Lagoon, a large coastal lagoon that empties into the Atlantic Ocean. Based on interdecadal meteorological and biological data sets encompassing the two strongest El Niño events of the last 50 yr, we evaluated the hypothesis that El Niño-induced hydrological changes are a major driving force controlling the interannual variation in the structure and dynamics of fishes in the Patos Lagoon estuary. High rainfall in the drainage basin of the lagoon coincided with low salinity in the estuarine area during both El Niño episodes. Total rainfall in the drainage basin was higher (767 versus 711 mm) and near-zero salinity conditions in the estuarine area lasted about 3 mo longer during the 1997–1998 El Niño event compared with the 1982–1983 event. Hydrological changes triggered by both El Niño events had similar relationships to fish species composition and diversity patterns, but the 1997–1998 event appeared to have stronger effects on the species assemblage. Although shifts in species composition were qualitatively similar during the two El Niño events, distance between El Niño and non-El Niño assemblage multivariate centroids was greater during the 1996–2000 sampling period compared with the 1979–1983 period. We provide a conceptual model of the principal mechanisms and processes connecting the atmospheric-oceanographic interactions triggered by the El Niño phenomena and their effect on the estuarine fish assemblage.     

Trends and extreme value analysis of rainfall pattern over homogeneous monsoon regions of India

Trends of pre-monsoon, monsoon and post-monsoon rainfall pattern were studied on decadal basis over different homogeneous monsoon regions in India for the period 1871–2008. It is attempted to understand the relation of monsoon rainfall with the global teleconnections of El Niño and La Niña, for which the correlation analysis has been carried out with Darwin pressure and Niño 3.4 sea surface temperature (Niño 3.4 SST). The correlation analysis inferred that the significant correlations were observed when monsoon rainfall is related to ENSO indices on decadal scale than on annual ones. The study also found that the north-west region is more affected by the moderate El Niño years compared to strong El Niño years. The regions Central North-East and North-East could not make any difference among weak, moderate and strong La Niña events. The authors also have carried out the extreme value analysis over different homogeneous monsoon regions of India as well as for whole India. The results show that the return values of rainfall are increasing with the return periods for the forthcoming 10, 20, 50 and 100 years. The heterogeneity in number of threshold years that were recorded for the extreme rainfall over north-east (humid climatic type) and north-west (arid climatic type) described the climate variability. The results of the present study may be useful for the policy makers in understanding the rainfall exceedance in different return periods for planning the risk management strategies.     

Short- and Long-Term Vegetative Propagation of Two <Emphasis Type="Italic">Spartina</Emphasis> Species on a Salt Marsh in Southern Brazil

Spartina alterniflora and Spartina densiflora are native salt marsh plants from the Atlantic coast; their habitats in Patos Lagoon estuary (southern Brazil) are characterized by a microtidal regime (<0.5 m) and, during El Niño events, high estuarine water levels and prolonged flooding due to elevated freshwater discharge from a 200,000-km² watershed. During and between El Niño events, the vegetative propagation of these two Spartina species in the largest estuary of southern Brazil (Patos Lagoon) was evaluated by monitoring transplanted plants for 10 years (short-term study) and interpreting aerial photos of natural stands for 56 years (long-term study). During the short-term study, S. alterniflora quickly occupied mud flats (up to 208 cm year^?1) by elongation of rhizomes, whereas S. densiflora showed a modest lateral spread (up to 13 cm year^?1) and generated dense circular-shaped stands. However, moderate and strong El Niño events can promote excessive flooding and positive anomalies in the estuarine water level that reduce the lateral spread and competitive ability of S. densiflora. During the long-term study, natural stands of S. alterniflora and S. densiflora had steady lateral spread rates of 152 and 5.2 cm year^?1, respectively, over mud flats. In the microtidal marshes of the southwest Atlantic, the continuous long-term lateral expansion of both Spartina species embodies periods of intense flooding stress (moderate and strong El Niños), when there is a decrease of vegetative propagation and less stressful low water periods of fast spread over mud flats (non-El Niño periods and weak intensity El Niños).     

Monitoring runoff coefficients and groundwater levels using data from GRACE,GLDAS, and hydrometeorological stations: analysis of a Colombian foreland basin

The determination of space–time variation in groundwater accumulation in Colombia’s Eastern Llanos foreland basin from 2003 to 2014 was done using terrestrial water storage (TWS) anomalies identified in two versions of the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) data—from the Global Data Center for Space Research (CSR) at the University of Texas at Austin (USA) and from the Institute of Geodesy at the Graz University of Technology (ITSG, Austria)—and also soil moisture storage (SMS) data from the Global Land Data Assimilation System (GLDAS). These data were compared to changes in groundwater storage obtained using the water-budget equation, calculated based on recorded data from hydrometeorological stations. This study confirmed the viability of using satellite information to understand and monitor temporal variation in groundwater recharge in the study area. Temporal variations in TWS, SMS, and groundwater level were shown to correspond to regional rain and drought periods, which are sensitive to climate phenomena such as El Niño and La Niña. Comparing changes in TWS and groundwater level to changes in infiltration and recharge revealed correlation coefficients of 0.56 and 0.98 with CSR data and 0.71 and 0.86 with ITSG data, respectively.     

Growth increment and stable isotope analysis of marine bivalves: Implications for the geoarchaeological record of El Niño

The 1982–1983 El Niño event afforded the opportunity to develop criteria for the recognition of ancient El Niños using mollusks from archaeological sites along coastal South America. A combination of growth increment and stable isotope analyses indicated that elevated sea surface temperatures during large scale El Niños leave a record decodable from the growth patterns of selected bivalve shells. The intertidal venerid Chione subrugosa displayed a pronounced break in the valve margin profile following the 1982-1983 event but provided an inconsistent stable isotope pattern. The subtidal carditid Trachycardium procerum, on the other hand, preserved a discernible and diagnostic growth interruption as well as an expected trend in stable isotope indicators of salinity and temperature change. We conclude that some of the major culturally disruptive El Niño events can be recognized in the geoarchaeological record by these techniques, especially if ancillary information, such as faunal distribution patterns, are also considered. Perhaps the most serious constraint upon application of this approach involves microstratigraphic resolution of shell midden deposits. Stratigraphic sampling of midden material should be accompanied, if possible, by sampling of proximal natural strata. The chances of discovery of major El Niño perturbations in the geoarchaeological record of shell middens is enhanced by the catastrophic nature of such events and by the indication that major El Niños have a high probability of being closely spaced in time.     

Application of Archimedean copulas to the impact assessment of hydro-climatic variables in semi-arid aquifers of western India

The effects of rainfall and the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) on groundwater in a semi-arid basin of India were analyzed using Archimedean copulas considering 17 years of data for monsoon rainfall, post-monsoon groundwater level (PMGL) and ENSO Index. The evaluated dependence among these hydro-climatic variables revealed that PMGL-Rainfall and PMGL-ENSO Index pairs have significant dependence. Hence, these pairs were used for modeling dependence by employing four types of Archimedean copulas: Ali-Mikhail-Haq, Clayton, Gumbel-Hougaard, and Frank. For the copula modeling, the results of probability distributions fitting to these hydro-climatic variables indicated that the PMGL and rainfall time series are best represented by Weibull and lognormal distributions, respectively, while the non-parametric kernel-based normal distribution is the most suitable for the ENSO Index. Further, the PMGL-Rainfall pair is best modeled by the Clayton copula, and the PMGL-ENSO Index pair is best modeled by the Frank copula. The Clayton copula-based conditional probability of PMGL being less than or equal to its average value at a given mean rainfall is above 70% for 33% of the study area. In contrast, the spatial variation of the Frank copula-based probability of PMGL being less than or equal to its average value is 35–40% in 23% of the study area during El Niño phase, while it is below 15% in 35% of the area during the La Niña phase. This copula-based methodology can be applied under data-scarce conditions for exploring the impacts of rainfall and ENSO on groundwater at basin scales.     

Recent catastrophic debris flows in Chile: Geological hazard,climatic relationships and human response

Debris flows are an important type of geological hazard in Chile, affecting cities, towns and rural areas throughout the country despite the variation in climate regimes. In this summary paper, recent debris flows in the cities of Antofagasta and Santiago, in northern and central Chile, and in a rural area near Lake Ranco in central-southern Chile in 1991, 1993 and 2004, respectively, are reviewed. Triggering factors for flow occurrence are identified and different approaches to debris flow hazard assessment and the effects of debris flows on people and the environment are discussed. Furthermore, the relationships between debris flow occurrence and climatic anomalies such as El Niño episodes are analysed. A clear pattern of debris flow generation associated with El Niño events is found for Antofagasta and Santiago. The risk related to debris flows in Chile is of increasing importance because of the continuous expansion of cities to hazardous areas such as alluvial fans. The results show that hazard assessment based on several factors is essential for the implementation of proper prevention and mitigation measures for future debris flow events in the country.     

Determing the effects of El Niño-Southern Oscillation events on coastal water quality

The importance of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) on regional-scale climate variability is well recognized although the associated effects on local weather patterns are poorly understood. Little work has addressed the ancillary impacts of climate variability at the community level, which require analysis at a local scale. In coastal communities water quality and public health effects are of particular interest. Here we describe the historical influence of ENSO events on coastal water quality in Tampa Bay, Florida (USA) as a test case. Using approximate randomized statistics, we show significant ENSO influences on water quality particularly during winter months, with significantly greater fecal pollution levels during strong El Niño winters and significantly lower levels during strong La Niña winters as compared to neutral conditions. Similar significant patterns were also noted for El Niño and La Niña fall periods. The success of the analysis demonstrates the feasibility of assessing local effects associated with large-scale climate variability. It also highlights the possibility of using ENSO forecasts to predict periods of poor coastal water quality in urban region which local agencies may use to make appropriate prepations.     

The Effect of River Discharge and Winds on the Interannual Variability of the Pink Shrimp <Emphasis Type="Italic">Farfantepenaeus paulensis</Emphasis> Production in Patos Lagoon

The Patos Lagoon estuary is an important environment for the life cycle of many species, including the pink shrimp Farfantepenaeus paulensis. This area acts as a nursery ground for the shrimp larvae, which are spawned in a coastal area and transported into the lagoon during spring and early summer (September to December). Harvesting of shrimp occurs from January to May, and yields have varied from around 1,000 to 8,000 tons year^?1. This study is based on analysis of river discharge, pink shrimp catches, and wind velocity time series from 1964 to 2004. Negative correlation between pink shrimp catches and river runoff reflects the influence of discharge on the lagoon circulation and, consequently, on the intrusion of salt water and larvae. When river discharge is below average, landward currents forced by SW winds can enhance larval transport into the estuarine area, leading to an increase in pink shrimp captures. Above average river input would force a seaward flow that works as a barrier to ingress of larvae. This is unusual when compared to many other estuarine systems, and the main factor that accounts for this behavior is the morphology (choking) of Patos Lagoon. Interannual variability related to El Niño/Southern Oscillation events also influence pink shrimp production in this area. Low/high shrimp catches are related to El Niño (flood)/La Niña (drought) events. Wind can also impact production through its effect on the southward displacement of larvae from the spawning area. Long-term trends indicate an increase in river discharge around 20 m³ s^?1year^?1 and a decrease in shrimp catches on the order of 57 tons year^?1.     

The beach ridges at Santa,Peru: El Niño,uplift, and prehistory

Recent work on the beach ridges at Santa, Peru (9° s latitude) upholds an earlier hypothesis, based on sedimentary evidence, that the ridges were formed by massive sediment pulses during rains associated with major incursions of the warm water El Niño countercurrent. The ridges can therefore be used to date major El Niño events. The alternate hypothesis for the Santa ridge origin cited minor sequential uplift as the causal factor; this hypothesis has been disproven, though one previously unreported uplift event at about 4200 years B.P. has been identified at Santa. In general, landscape alteration processes such as El Niño floods and tectonic uplift affect human populations, and accurate chronologies of these events are necessary to interpret the archaeological record. Geoarchaeological research offers the key to constructing landscape alteration chronologies, which are also of use to geologists for studies of earthquake prediction, sedimentation processes, and paleoclimatology.     

About the variability in thunderstorm and rainfall activity over India and its association with El Niño and La Niña

Thunderstorms are of much importance in tropics, as this region is considered to have central role in the convective overturn of the atmosphere and play an important role in rainfall activity. It is well known that El Niño and La Niña are well associated with significant climate anomalies at many places around the globe. Therefore, an attempt is made in this study to analyze variability in thunderstorm days and rainfall activity over Indian region and its association with El Niño and La Niña using data of thunderstorm day’s for 64 stations well distributed all over India for the period 1981–2005 (25 years). It is seen that thunderstorm activity is higher and much variable during pre-monsoon (MAM) and southwest monsoon (JJAS) than the rest of the year. Positive correlation coefficients (CCs) are seen between thunderstorms and rainfall except for the month of June during which the onset of the southwest monsoon sets over the country. CCs during winter months are highly correlated. Composite anomalies in thunderstorms during El Niño and La Niña years suggest that ENSO conditions altered the patterns of thunderstorm activity over the country. Positive anomalies are seen during pre-monsoon (MAM) and southwest monsoon months (JAS) during La Niña years. Opposite features are seen in southwest monsoon during El Niño periods, but El Niño favors thunderstorm activity during pre-monsoon months. There is a clear contrast between the role of ENSO during southwest monsoon and post-monsoon on thunderstorm activity over the country. Time series of thunderstorms and precipitation show strong association with similarities in their year-to-year variation over the country.     

Change of the ENSO-related δ18O–SST correlation from coral skeletons in northern South China Sea: A possible influence from the Kuroshio Current

Chemical proxies are useful analogs for reconstructing physical properties of sea water, such as sea surface temperature (SST) and sea surface salinity (SSS). Time series of these inferred properties would allow for reconstructions of past El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events, where no instrumental records exist. In this study, a monthly oxygen isotope record from a Porites coral is used to explain how past ENSO events are recorded in the coral skeletons. The sample covers a 12 year period and was collected from Nanwan Bay, Taiwan. During El Niño events the coral skeleton is shown to produce a δ¹⁸O–SST correlation with a slope of −0.12 ± 0.04‰ °C⁻¹. During other times, this value is significantly different, with a slope of −0.21 ± 0.04‰ °C⁻¹. Coral that grew during El Niño summers have δ¹⁸O values which are enriched by ∼0.2‰, relative to other times. A possible mechanism to explain this difference may be enhanced penetration of Kuroshio Current waters into the South China Sea during summer. The observed contrast in the correlation of δ¹⁸O–SST variability in this sample supports the influence of El Niño in eastern Asia.     

Characteristics of tropical cyclones making landfall on the Pacific coast of Mexico: 1970-2010

This study evaluates impacts from tropical cyclone (TC) landfalls on populated areas located along the Pacific Ocean coast of Mexico. The period of interest is from 1970 through 2010 and an international disaster database is used to identify the impact from the landfalling TCs. More than 30 landfall events occurred during the period; we examined the top 25 TCs based on rainfall accumulation, as well as the top 10 TC-related disasters based on the affected population. Each event resulted in affected population from 20 000 to more than 800 000. Strong winds and heavy rainfall, during periods of one to three days, are associated with property damage and loss of lives. Our results indicate that excessive rainfall accumulations and daily rates, over highly populated areas, are important elements associated with the occurrence of disasters. Six of the top 10 TC-related disasters occurred during El Niño and three during neutral conditions; however, looking at the top 25 events, 10 occurred during El Niño and 10 during neutral conditions. Three case studies that occurred during El Niño events (Liza in 1976, Pauline in 1997, and Lane in 2006) are documented in more detail as they affected areas with different population densities in the southern and northwestern coasts of Mexico.     

Interannual variations in length of day with respect to El Niño - Southern Oscillation’s impact (1962–2015)

The objective of research done in this study is to examine the variability of the length of day (LOD) and to investigate its correlation with ENSO (El Niño-Southern oscillation) episodes. For this purpose, the LOD time series (1962–2015), from the International Earth Rotation and Reference Systems Service (IERS), is investigated using the Singular Spectrum Analysis (SSA) technique. The results show that the LOD time series is very complex and is composed of several components: the long-term trend explains 95.97% of the original series, the annual harmonic 1.76% and the semi-annual 1.35%. Considering sea surface temperature anomalies (SSTA) index over the Niño3, Niño4 and Niño3.4 regions, Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) and Multivariate ENSO Index (MEI), the residuals signal, that represents only 0.92% of the initial LOD series, indicate a significant correlation with ENSO occurred during 1965–66, 1972–73, 1982–83 and 1997–98 El Niño events and 1970–71, 1973–74, 1988–89, 2007–08, 2010–11 La Niña ones. This is a pertinent result that suggests that LOD variability is at least partly related to ENSO phenomena.     

金衢盆地旱涝统计特征初步分析

根据527年的旱涝史料分析,得出金衢盆地(金华-衢州盆地)的旱涝具有如下一些统计特征:(1)17世纪是金衢盆地旱涝的频繁期;(2)旱涝存在着多种周期;(3)旱涝具有时间分形结构;(4)旱涝对太阳黑子活动和厄尔尼诺现象具有较好的响应。     

ENSO impacts on salinity in Tampa Bay, Florida

Estuarine salinity distributions reflect a dynamic balance between the processes that control estuarine circulation. At seasonal and longer time scales, freshwater inputs into estuaries represent the primary control on salinity distribution and estuarine circulation. El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) conditions influence seasonal rainfall and stream discharge patterns in the Tampa Bay, Florida region. The resulting variability in freshwater input to Tampa Bay influences its seasonal salinity distribution. During El Niño events, ENSO sea surface temperature anomalies (SSTAs) are significantly and inversely correlated with salinity in the bay during winter and spring. These patterns reflect the elevated rainfall over the drainage basin and the resulting elevated stream discharge and runoff, which depress salinity levels. Spatially, the correlations are strongest at the head of the bay, especially in bay sections with long residence times. During La Niña conditions, significant inverse correlations between ENSO SSTAs and salinity occur during spring. Dry conditions and depressed stream discharge characterize La Niña winters and springs, and the higher salinity levels during La Niña springs reflect the lower freshwater input levels.     

Identification of the influencing factors on groundwater drought and depletion in north-western Bangladesh

Groundwater drought is a specific type of hydrological drought that concerns groundwater bodies. It may have a significant adverse effect on the socio-economic, agricultural, and environmental conditions. Investigating the effect of different climatic and anthropogenic factors on groundwater drought provides essential information for sustainable planning and management of (ground) water resources. The aim of this study is to identify the influencing factors on groundwater drought in north-western Bangladesh, to understand the forcing mechanisms. A multi-step methodology is proposed to achieve this objective. The standardised precipitation index (SPI) and reconnaissance drought index (RDI) have been used to quantify the aggregated deficit between precipitation and the evaporative demand of the atmosphere, i.e. meteorological drought. The influence of land-cover patterns on the groundwater drought has been identified by calculating spatially distributed groundwater recharge as a function of land cover. Groundwater drought is defined by a threshold method. The results show that the evapotranspiration and rainfall deficits are determining meteorological drought, which shows a direct relation with groundwater recharge deficits. Land-cover change has a small effect on groundwater recharge but does not seem to be the main cause of groundwater-level decline (depletion) in the study area. The groundwater depth and groundwater-level deficit (drought) is continuously increasing with little correlation to meteorological drought or recharge anomalies. Overexploitation of groundwater for irrigation seems to be the main cause of groundwater-level decline in the study area. Efficient irrigation management is essential to reduce the growing pressure on groundwater resources and ensure sustainable water management.     

Palaeoproductivity evolution in the centre of the western Pacific warm pool during the last 250 ka

To reconstruct the palaeoproductivity evolution history of the centre of the western Pacific warm pool (WPWP) over the last 250 ka, multi‐proxies were analysed in sediment core WP7 recovered from the Ontong–Java Plateau. Palaeoproductivity evolution at the centre of the WPWP during the last 250 ka is closely related to glacial–interglacial cycles and the insolation controlled by precession. The glacial higher primary productivity relative to the interglacial conditions could have resulted from both thermocline shoaling associated with persistent El Niňo‐like conditions and the increased influx of dust resulting from intensified winter monsoon together with important changes in the thermocline. The minimum primary productivity values during the last three terminations could be resulted from deglacial thermocline deepening and intensified stratification associated with persistent La Niña‐like conditions, and the concurrent Neogloboquadrina dutertrei δ¹³C minimum events probably reflect the chemical signatures of Subantarctic Mode Water and Antarctic Intermediate Water. In addition, primary productivity values are also controlled by the thermocline variations resulting from El Niño/La Niña‐Southern Oscillation processes responding to precession forcing, and lead the δ¹⁸O by about 4 ka. The 33.1 ka, 19 ka and “half‐precession” periods are prominent in the palaeoproductivity records. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Were merely storm-landslides driven by the 2015-2016 Niño in the Mendoza River valley?

Since Holocene time, above-mean precipitations recorded during the El Niño warm ENSO phase have been linked to the occurrence of severe debris flows in the arid Central Andes. The 2015–2016 El Niño, for its unusual strength, began driving huge and dangerous landslides in the Central Andes (32°) in the recent South Hemisphere summer. The resulting damages negatively impacted the regional economy. Despite this, causes of these dangerous events were ambiguously reported. For this reason, a multidisciplinary study was carried out in the Mendoza River valley. Firstly, a geomorphological analysis of affected basins was conducted, estimating morphometric parameters of recorded events such as velocity, stream flow, and volume. Atmospheric conditions during such events were analyzed, considering precipitations, snow cover, temperature range, and the elevation of the zero isotherm. Based on our findings, the role of El Niño on the slope instability in the Central Andes is more complex in the climate change scenario. Even though some events were effectively triggered by intense summer rainstorm following expectations, the most dangerous events were caused by the progressive uplifting of the zero isotherm in smaller basins where headwaters are occupied by debris rock glaciers. Our research findings give light to the dynamic coupled system ENSO–climate change–landslides (ECCL) at least in this particular case study of the Mendoza River valley. Landslide activity in this Andean region is driven by wetter conditions linked to the ENSO warm phase, but also to progressive warming since the twentieth century in the region. This fact emphasizes the future impact of the natural hazards on Andean mountain communities.