Environmental implications of wave energy proposals for the outer hebrides and Moray Firth

The Nature Conservancy Council has carried out appraisals for the Department of Energy of environmental implications of siting full-scale floating or seabed-mounted wave energy converters off the west coast of the Outer Hebrides and full-scale floating devices off the Moray Firth.Converters would have a variety of effects on the hydraulic environment, most noticeably by modifying the local wave climate. A decrease in incident wave energy would influence shores and shallow subtidal areas and result in changes in the density and species of organisms they support. Extensive shell-sand beaches occur along the west coast of the Uists but although wave activity and wave steepness would be reduced, accretion on these beaches might be limited by the availability of sediment. Fixed converters off the Hebrides would have more pronounced environmental impacts than offshore floating devices, mainly through their greater sheltering effect, the possibly stronger tidal flows generated between devices and shores, and the need to site fixed converters in the kelp zone.Devices would represent a new habitat for colonisation by attached algae and invertebrates and would probably attract fish, seabirds and seals. Seabed-mounted devices, once no longer operational, would become artificial reefs if left in place.Device noise might affect communication and navigation systems of fish and marine mammals. The navigational hazard to shipping posed by converters would be likely to increase the risk of severe oil pollution incidents in areas that are populated by internationally important numbers of seabirds.Other impacts would arise from the construction and maintenance of devices, an increased demand for building aggregate, the likelihood of intertidal flats being reclaimed, and conversion and transmission of energy, and the general associated developments and industrialisation that would ensue.It is concluded that although wave energy conversion harnesses a renewable source of energy it is not necessarily environmentally benign. Nevertheless, no environmental questions have been raised which would necessarily rule out further consideration of this energy source.     

莱州湾东岸近岸海域规划围填海后冲淤演变预测

运用Mike21模型中的水动力模块对研究区的潮流场进行了模拟,分析研究区的冲淤趋势;利用经验公式,对波浪和潮流进行耦合,计算出极端条件下的最大冲刷深度,对比规划用海实施前后的最大冲刷深度,以对该区域的海岸防护、工程选址等提供科学依据。结果表明:受到填海工程的影响,龙口湾内有轻微淤积,界河至石虎咀近岸海域的波浪和潮流受工程影响而变小,冲刷强度变弱。     

Sea-floor methane blow-out and global firestorm at the K–T boundary

A previously unsuspected source of fuel for the global firestorm recorded by soot in the Cretaceous–Tertiary impact layer may have resided in methane gas associated with gas hydrate in the end-Cretaceous seafloor. End-Cretaceous impact-generated shock and megawaves would have had the potential to initiate worldwide oceanic methane gas blow-outs from these deposits. The methane would likely have ignited and incompletely combusted. This large burst of methane would have been followed by longer-term methane release as a part of a positive thermal feedback in the disturbed ocean-atmosphere system.     

渤海湾风浪场的数值模拟

采用SWAN模型对渤海湾在定常风和非定常风作用下的波浪场进行了模拟,并利用黄骅港附近波浪统计资料对模拟结果进行了验证。结果表明：SWAN模型较好地模拟了渤海湾在定常风和非定常风作用下风浪成长和传播过程。此外,还应用ADCIRC潮流模型,初步探讨了潮流对波浪要素的影响：(1)无流存在时,波高的成长和波周期的变化是一条光滑的曲线,但当有流加入时,由于其流速和水位在一个潮周期内随时间的变化足不均匀的,其对波浪成长产生影响,使波高和周期呈不规则变化;(2)波浪成长初期,流对波高增长的影响并不明显,但当波高增大到一定程度时,流的存在对波高的影响是很明显的。     

基于ScienceDirect数据库的国外北极问题研究综述（2007—2021年）

随着北极海冰融化的加剧,北极问题研究的重要性逐渐凸显。文章以ScienceDirect数据库为主要搜索范围,系统梳理了2007—2021年国外北极问题研究文献,从北极航线、北极经济、北极政治和北极环境4个方面对国外北极问题研究现状进行了分析。认为未来的国外北极问题研究中,北极航线相关问题研究将聚焦于北极航线运营模式的研究;北极经济问题研究将注重区域经济和北极产业发展;北极政治研究依然会着力探讨如何在北极治理中的合作问题,虽然目前的北极政治研究中定性分析和描述性分析较多,但未来将增加定量分析和理论创新的研究;北极环境问题研究将注重北极经济开发和环境保护的平衡,进一步关注北极的可持续发展问题。     

Mechanization and technical interactions in multi-species Indian fisheries: implications for economic and biological sustainability

Joint capture of multiple species by multiple fleets results in technical and economic interactions between fleets. This paper develops a bioeconomic model that incorporates interrelationships between fleets for a representative fishery in India. The study analyzes the impacts of overcapitalization on bio-economic sustainability. Results show that a continuation of the current fishing intensity would deplete most commercially important species in the near future. However, an optimal effort re-allocation between fleets would increase fishery profits substantially, although some species would remain unsustainable. The study demonstrates how the newly emerging, large bodies of fishery data can be used for management decisions in developing countries.     

青岛液体化工码头苯罐泄漏对大气环境的影响

预测和评价了青岛港液体化工码头苯贮罐苯泄漏对大气环境的影响．结果表明，苯罐一旦发生泄苯事故，会对大气环境造成不同程度的影响；在最不利天气条件下，泄漏挥发量为3375kg，会导致22人死亡；泄漏挥发量为1237kg，会导致4人死亡；如果同样的泄苯挥发量，发生在微风条件下，则分别有4人死亡和无人死亡；若发生33kg泄漏挥发量，无论在何种天气条件下，都不会导致人员伤亡。     

珠江河口盐度和输运过程对未来海平面上升的响应

研究海平面上升对河口的影响情况有助于了解输运过程的变化,基于21世纪海平面上升预测研究(陈长霖,2012;张吉,2014),本文选取珠江河口这一径优型与潮优型并存的河口为研究区域,利用数值模拟的方法,研究其在未来海平面上升后可能出现的响应。结果表明,河口的平均盐度、咸潮上溯距离和层化强度都将随着海平面的上升而增加,这些因素的变化有着明显的季节性。伶仃洋平均盐度在4月和10月增加更多;伶仃洋枯水期咸潮上溯距离的增量大于丰水期,磨刀门则相反;伶仃洋丰水期层化强度及其增量都要大于枯水期。海平面上升后的输运过程响应结果显示:(1) 垂向输运时间将增加,虽然海平面上升带来的潮差潮流的增强将加强垂向混合,但是层化的加强会削弱垂向交换。垂向输运时间的增加是由于层化的加强,层化加强抑制了潮汐变化带来的影响,表层水更难交换到底层; (2) 南北向河口环流将加强,表层余流向海加强,底层余流向陆加强,南北向余流整体向海减小。造成这些现象的主要原因是海平面上升后水深增加带来的河道比降的减小和压力梯度力的改变。     

Submarine slope stability analysis during natural gas hydrate dissociation

ABSTRACT

The purpose of this paper is to analyze the stability of submarine slope during the natural gas hydrate dissociation. A model is deduced to calculate the excess pore fluid pressure. In addition, a new method is proposed to define and calculate the factor of safety (FoS) of the submarine slope. Case study is also performed, results of which show that dissociation of hydrates would decrease the stability of submarine slope. If the cohesion of the hydrate-bearing sediments is small, the submarine slope would become unstable because of the shear failure. If the cohesion of the hydrate-bearing sediments is large enough, the tensile failure would happen in the hydrate-bearing sediments and the excess pore pressure may explode the submarine slope. Under the drained condition, the submarine slope may remain stable because the buildup of excess pore fluid pressure could not take place. Moreover, FoS would be underestimated by the assumption that natural gas hydrates dissociate in the horizontally confined space, but would be overestimated by only taking into account of the base of the natural gas hydrate-bearing sediments. The compressibility factor of natural gas should also be considered because treating natural gas as ideal gas would underestimate the stability of submarine slope.     

Rio+20 and the reform of the Common Fisheries Policy in Europe

At the Rio+20 meeting in June 2012, governments of the world committed to rebuilding fish stock sizes by 2015 at least to levels that can produce the maximum sustainable yield (MSY), even if that would require the temporary closure of fisheries. This study explores the outcomes of such action for European stocks. In 2012, only 8 of 48 stocks (17%) were abundant enough to produce MSY and with a business as usual scenario, this number would not increase by 2015. In contrast, if fishing was reduced to levels consistent with rebuilding and if some fisheries were temporarily closed, 50–70% of the examined stocks would be able to reach the Rio+20 target by the end of 2015. In this scenario, after three years with reduced catches, fish supply from European stocks would reach and exceed the levels of 2011 already in 2016. The implications for fish, fishers and fish consumers are discussed.     

Sea-floor methane blow-out and global firestorm at the K–T boundary

 A previously unsuspected source of fuel for the global firestorm recorded by soot in the Cretaceous–Tertiary impact layer may have resided in methane gas associated with gas hydrate in the end-Cretaceous seafloor. End-Cretaceous impact-generated shock and megawaves would have had the potential to initiate worldwide oceanic methane gas blow-outs from these deposits. The methane would likely have ignited and incompletely combusted. This large burst of methane would have been followed by longer-term methane release as a part of a positive thermal feedback in the disturbed ocean-atmosphere system. Received: 16 September 1998 / revision received: 11 January 1999     

A United States shark fin ban would undermine sustainable shark fisheries

A proposed nationwide ban on the sale of shark fins within the United States would undermine sustainable shark fisheries, would have little effect on global shark mortality, and would perpetuate the misconception that the shark fin trade is the only threat facing sharks. Instead, placing a priority on policies focusing on sustainable shark fisheries management is preferred for meeting the goals of shark conservation.     

断裂体系对海岸线分形性质与分维值的影响

理论分析、计算模拟以及实例验证表明，断裂体系对于海岸线的发育及其分形性质有着重要的影响。如果海岸线发育受到两组或者多组不同方向断裂的影响，并且影响程度相当或者比较接近，那么海岸线的分维值较大；如果海岸线倾向于由单一方向的一组断裂控制，那么海岸线的分维值较小。福建海岸主要受到NE向和NW向两组断裂的控制，因此海岸线的分维值较大；台湾东海岸受单一方向(NNE向)大断裂的控制，海岸线分维值接近于1．0。该项研究对加深海岸线分形机理的认识具有重要的意义。     

细胞结构对浮游植物光学特性的影响

藻细胞抽象为细胞质和叶绿体构成的两层球体结构, 结合Aden-Kerker散射理论, 分析了藻细胞各物理属性对其光学特性的影响, 同时也与均匀球体藻细胞的光学特性进行了对比分析。分析结果表明, 与均匀球体结构相比, 叶绿体为外裹层的细胞结构将显著增强其后向散射效率及后向散射比率, 而叶绿体为内核层的细胞结构因打包效应将削弱藻细胞的吸收效率; 当叶绿体为外裹层时, 细胞粒径大小、叶绿体相对体积、叶绿体复折射率的虚部都对藻细胞的吸收效率会产生显著影响; 同时, 细胞粒径大小和叶绿体复折射率实部是决定细胞后向散射效率和后向散射比率的两个重要指标。     

Occurrence and persistence of water level/salinity states and the ecological impacts for St Lucia estuarine lake,South Africa

The St Lucia estuarine lake in South Africa forms part of a World Heritage Site and is an important local source of biodiversity. Like many estuarine systems worldwide, St Lucia has experienced significant anthropogenic impacts over the past century. Abstractions have decreased fresh water inflows from the lake catchments by about 20%. Furthermore the Mfolozi river, which previously shared a common inlet with St Lucia and contributed additional fresh water during droughts, was diverted from the system in 1952 because of its high silt loads. The separated St Lucia mouth was subsequently kept artificially open until the onset of a dry period in 2002 when the mouth was left to close naturally. These changes and the current drought have placed the system under severe stress with unprecedented hypersaline conditions coupled with desiccation of large portions of the lake. Long-term simulations of the water and salt balance were used to estimate the occurrence and persistence of water levels and salinities for different management scenarios. The risks of desiccation and hyper-salinity were assessed for each case. The results show that the configuration of the Mfolozi/St Lucia inlets plays a key role in the physicochemical environment of the system. Without the Mfolozi link desiccation (of about 50% of the lake area) would occur for 32% of the time for an average duration of 15 months. Artificially maintaining an open mouth would decrease the chance of desiccation but salinities would exceed 65 about 17% of the time. Restoring the Mfolozi link would reduce the occurrence of both desiccation and hypersaline conditions and a mostly open mouth state would occur naturally. Integrating these modeled scenarios with observed biological responses due to changes in salinity and water depth suggests that large long-term changes in the biological structure can be expected in the different management scenarios.     

Selling only sustainable seafood: Attitudes toward public regulation and retailer policies

This study investigates consumer attitudes toward stores selling only sustainable seafood in seven European countries. Using a split sample design, half of the respondents were asked if they would support new regulations requiring stores to sell only sustainable labeled seafood. The other half was asked if they would continue to buy their seafood at their preferred seafood store if the store implemented a new policy of selling only sustainable labeled seafood. Respondents were on average positive to new sustainability regulations that increased prices by less than 7%, and would on average not change store unless prices increased by more than 8%. Country differences are investigated and implications for private and public policies related to sustainability of seafood discussed.     

Analytic Solution of Elasto-Plastic Stress in Infinite Slope under Uniform Load

-According to the Mohr-Coulomb yield criterion,the stress field of the infinite slope is derivedunder a vertical uniform load q on the top of the slope.It is indicated that elastic and elasto-plastic stateswould occur in the slope.When q is smaller than the critical load,q_p,the slope is in the elastic state.Ifq equals q_p,the slope is in the critical state,and the plastic deformation would occur along the critical an-gle.With the increase of q,the plastic zone would extend,and the slope is in the elasto-plastic state.Ifq equals limit load,the slope is in the limit equilibrium state.The slope may be divided into three zones.Some charts of the critical angle,the critical and limit load coefficients are presented in this paper.     

Fishers’ knowledge indicates short-term temporal changes in the amount and composition of catches in the southwestern Atlantic

The scarcity of data on fish catches difficult management of small-scale fisheries in developing countries. This study applies fishers’ knowledge to investigate temporal changes in the amount (biomass) and composition (major ecological categories) of fishing resources exploited by small-scale coastal fisheries in the southeastern Brazilian coast. Four hypotheses were investigated: (1) The amount of fish caught reported by fishers would decrease over time. (2) Older fishers would report higher fish catches than younger fishers. (3) Recent interviews would mention large-sized predators less often. (4) Recent interviews would mention less high valued fishing resources. Interviews with 421 fishers in 36 communities in the southeastern Brazilian coast were analyzed, covering a time span of 14 years, from 1995 to 2009. The hypothesis 1 was confirmed, 3 was partially confirmed, while 2 and 4 were not confirmed. Fishers’ age was unrelated to all variables. The results from fishers’ interviews indicated the temporal trends of: (1) a decrease in the biomass of fish caught; (2) an increase in the occurrence of smaller fish and invertebrates in the catch; (3) an increase of high value fishing resources; and (4) maintenance of large predators. The first two indicators suggest excessive fishing, but the later indicators (3 and 4) suggest that the socioecological system of the southeastern Brazilian coast had not yet undergone major ecological shifts.     

南沙珊瑚礁对大气CO2含量上升的响应

本文利用南沙海域的碳酸盐化学以及相关调查资料，分析了表层CaCO3饱和度的分布特征，通过碳酸盐的热力学计算模式，定量评估了未来大气CO2增加对表层CaCO3饱和度的潜在影响，利用CaCO3饱和度与珊瑚钙化速率的经验关系式，进一步预测了珊瑚礁对大气CO2上升可能产生的生物地球化学响应．初步结果显示，工业革命前至2100年，南沙海域的CaCO3饱和度将下降43％左右，从而将引起珊瑚礁的平均钙化速率减少33％．如果未来大气CO2浓度继续保持目前的上升趋势，南沙海域珊瑚礁可能会停止生长，甚至某些造礁生物面，临灭绝的危险．     

Historical simulation and twenty-first century prediction of oceanic CO2 sink and pH change

A global ocean carbon cycle model based on the ocean general circulation model POP and the improved biogeochemical model OCMIP-2 is employed to simulate carbon cycle processes under the historically observed atmospheric CO 2 concentration and different future scenarios (called Rep- resentative Concentration Pathways, or RCPs). The RCPs in this paper follow the design of Inter- governmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) for the Fifth Assessment Report (AR5). The model results show that the ocean absorbs CO 2 from atmosphere and the absorbability will continue in the 21st century under the four RCPs. The net air-sea CO 2 flux increased during the historical time and reached 1.87 Pg/a (calculated by carbon) in 2005; however, it would reach peak and then decrease in the 21st century. The ocean absorbs CO 2 mainly in the mid latitude, and releases CO 2 in the equator area. However, in the Antarctic Circumpolar Current (ACC) area the ocean would change from source to sink under the rising CO 2 concentration, including RCP4.5, RCP6.0, and RCP8.5. In 2100, the anthropogenic carbon would be transported to the 40 S in the Atlantic Ocean by the North Atlantic Deep Water (NADW), and also be transported to the north by the Antarctic Bottom Water (AABW) along the Antarctic continent in the Atlantic and Pacific oceans. The ocean pH value is also simulated by the model. The pH decreased by 0.1 after the industrial revolution, and would continue to decrease in the 21st century. For the highest concentration sce- nario of RCP8.5, the global averaged pH would decrease by 0.43 to reach 7.73 due to the absorption of CO 2 from atmosphere.