ANOMALOUS CALIFORNIA WINTERS AND THE ENSO PHENOMENA

Climate anomalies in California associated with ENSO episodes between 1910 and 1984 are investigated using “Superposed Epoch Analysis” techniques tested against randomization for statistical significance of the identified signals. The results indicate that statistically significant temperature departures from seasonal normals are associated with ENSO events and are characterized by positive anomalies in all seasons but especially in the key season of the event year and in the winter following the key season. Temperature anomalies associated with ENSO increase inversely with latitude. The largest temperature anomalies in the station superpositions occur not in the key season but in the winter following. This two-year persistence of temperature anomalies may be important in long-range forecasting. The spring and summer of the second year of the cycle are significantly warmer than the preceding two springs and summers. From the station superpositions, significant positive precipitation anomalies accompany the key seasons of ENSO episodes and persist through the following winter while the winter preceding the key season is abnormally dry. Areally averaged superpositions depict a dry winter and spring preceding the key ENSO season, a wet winter and spring in the episode year persisting into the following winter and spring in the north. A similar pattern exists in the south except that the fall and winter following the key season are abnormally wet. A division of ENSO episodes into “wet” and “dry” events produces no significant foreshadowing characteristics but highlights the indeterminacy of weather types associated with ENSO teleconnections in California as latitude increases. [Key words: climate, climatic anomaly, El Nino/Southern Oscillation, ENSO, California.]     

Temporal and Spatial Patterns of Seasonal Precipitation Variability in China, 1951-1999

Rainfall variability in China for the period from 1951 to 1999 was investigated. Monthly rainfall data for 160 stations were obtained from the Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences. Mean seasonal rainfall amounts were grouped into four distinct precipitation regions by cluster analysis. These regions differed in size and extent in each season and were related to the rainfall-generating mechanism operating at that time of year. The Asian monsoon played a major role in shaping the precipitation regime. Local topography also helped in casting the seasonal variability patterns within regions. To understand the impact of large scale circulation on rainfall variability, areally averaged anomaly percentages were correlated with major atmospheric teleconnection features. It was discovered that the Polar-Eurasia (POL) and Arctic Oscillation (AO) index were positively associated with winter precipitation, indicating the significance of the winter monsoon in producing the rainfall pattern. Negligible effects of the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI), West Pacific (WP), and North Pacific (NP) patterns on precipitation were observed.     

Identification of frequency changes in synoptic circulation types and consequences for glacier mass balance in Norway

The cumulative net mass balances of maritime glaciers in Norway display a net surplus during the period 1963–2000. The article seeks to establish the causal mechanisms that resulted in the positive net balances occurring on Norwegian maritime glaciers. To achieve this, a Temporal Synoptic Index (TSI) was derived for a 30-year period for a number of synoptic meteorological stations in Norway. The TSI is derived using Principal Components Analysis (PCA) and subsequent clustering of component scores to classify days for both winter and summer seasons. Findings indicate that the occurrence of ‘warm’ type air masses during the summer months have increased in frequency, particularly since the late 1980s. A reduction in the frequency of ‘cold’ cluster types during the winter months is evident after this period, while the frequency of ‘warm’ types, with an increased moisture carrying capacity, has increased in frequency. The frequency occurrence of these key air mass types is shown to be significantly related to glacier mass balance during both the accumulation and ablation season. Winter air mass types from maritime source regions act to enhance accumulation and suppress ablation, while summer continental source types suppress accumulation and enhance ablation.     

Decadal variability in climate and glacier fluctuations on Mt Baker, Washington, USA

Climate variability in the Pacific basin has been attributed to large‐scale oceanic‐atmospheric modulations (e.g. the El Niño‐Southern Oscillation (ENSO)) that dominate the weather of adjacent land areas. The Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) and north Pacific index are thought to be indicators of modulations and events in the northeast Pacific. In this study we find that variations in the PDO are reflected in the terminus position of glaciers on Mt Baker, in the northern Cascade Range, Washington. The initiation of retreat and advance phases of six glaciers persisted for 20–30 years, which relate to PDO regime shifts. The result of this study agrees with previous studies that link glacier mass balance changes to local precipitation anomalies and processes in the Pacific. However, the use of mass balance changes and glacier terminus variation for identification of regime shifts in climate indices is complicated by the lack of standardized measuring techniques, differing response times of individual glaciers to changes in climate, geographic and morphometric factors, and the use of assorted climate indices with different domains and time‐scales in the Pacific for comparison.     

Glacier balance trends in the Kongsfjorden area, western Spitsbergen, Svalbard, in relation to the climate

For the last thirty years, the mean net balance of two glaciers, Austre Brøggerbreen and Midre Lovénbreen, has been -0.43 and -0.34 m of water equivalent (w.e.). respectively. The mean net balance of Kongsvegen, a tidewater glacier that has been measured since 1987, is 0.11 m w.e. The negative balances of the two first glaciers are driven by the increase in atmospheric temperature which occurred at the end of the Little Ice Age at the beginning of the century. The positive balance of Kongsvegen is due to its higher elevation and larger accumulation area. There is no significant trend in the net balances and no increase of the melting has been detected during the last thirty years.
A correlation coefficient of R = 0.83 has been obtained between the net balance of Lovénbreen and the winter precipitation, together with the summer temperature recorded at the neighbouring station of Ny-Ålesund since 1969. With 14 years of data, the correlation coefficient between the net balance and climatic parameters does not increase consistently by introducing any radiation component, but the coefficient correlation between the summer balance of Austre Brøggerbreen and summer temperature increases from 0.68 to 0.77 when introducing global and long-wave radiation for July and August. Weather conditions and the frequency of their changes influence the balance between global and long-wave radiation and changes in albedo values.     

IMPACT OF THE SOUTHERN OSCILLATION ON THE NORTH AMERICAN SOUTHWEST MONSOON

The intensity and spatial variations in the North American Southwest Monsoon are examined to determine the influence of the Southern Oscillation. Sixty-five years (1920–1984) of July and August monthly precipitation data from Arizona and New Mexico are normalized using a square root transformation, converted into z-scores, and stratified according to onset and following years for Warm Events and Cold Events of the Southern Oscillation. The results for July reveal different spatial patterns in the monsoonal precipitation for the extremes of the Southern Oscillation. Warm-Event onset years are associated with positive precipitation anomalies that decline along a northeast-to-southwest gradient across the study area whereas the Cold-Event onset years produce highest positive values in west-central Arizona and negative values throughout the eastern two-thirds of the study area. Spatial patterns for the August precipitation data do not appear to be influenced by the extremes of the Southern Oscillation. [Key words: Southwest Monsoon, Southern Oscillation, Arizona, New Mexico.]     

INTERANNUAL TO INTERDECADAL VARIATIONS OF THE REGIONALIZED SURFACE CLIMATE OF THE UNITED STATES AND RELATIONSHIPS TO GENERALIZED FLOW PARAMETERS

This analysis attempts to discern primary causes of interannual and interdecadal climate variations for precipitation and temperature regions of the conterminous United States. Varimax rotated principal components analysis of annual climate division data is used in the derivation of nine precipitation and five temperature regions. Each region's time series is examined for underlying linear trends, representing long-term climate change, and tests for variance changes, to determine regional climate variability shifts. The first six precipitation components, representing the entire eastern half of the country and the Northwest, displayed significant temporal increases. Of these, four displayed significant increases in interannual variability through time. For temperature, only the Southwestern region showed a significant change (increase) through time. However, significant reductions in temperature variability were confirmed for three regions. To determine the causes of the derived climate shifts, correlation analysis was performed with various atmospheric teleconnection indices. Precipitation trends are most strongly associated with variations in the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) at the interannual time scale while interdecadal variations are associated more with variations in the Pacific/North American (PNA) teleconnection. Both interannual and interdecadal variations of regional temperature are most strongly related to the PNA, except for the Southwest, which showed a significant correlation to the SOI. This suggests that El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events are the source for much of the precipitation change evident in the eastern and Northwestern United States and temperature change in the Southwest. [Key words: climate change, precipitation, temperature, El Niño, Southern Oscillation, United States climate.]     

SPATIAL VARIABILITY OF MIDTROPOSPHERIC CIRCULATION PATTERNS AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE CLIMATE IN THE UNITED STATES DURING ENSO WINTERS

Numerous studies have documented that the Pacific/North American (PNA) pattern is the dominant extratropical response to ENSO forcing affecting the circulation over North America. However, the PNA is not the sole pattern that occurs during ENSO events. This study identifies the dominant synoptic circulation patterns and associated temperature and precipitation departures that occur during ENSO winters. Using standardized departures of 500 mbar heights over North America and the North Pacific Ocean, a subjective classification of the anomaly maps for winter months identified as warm ENSO events identifies three basic categories of 500 mbar standardized anomaly patterns: Variations of the PNA pattern, the reverse PNA pattern, and patterns with no PNA signature. Composite standardized anomaly maps of the synoptic categories of 500 mbar heights as well as composites of standardized temperature and precipitation departures for the contiguous United States were constructed. Three variations of the PNA, accounting for nearly half of the ENSO winters, are presented, identifying various configurations of the 500 mbar anomaly field and their effect on precipitation and temperature distribution. Similar composites are presented for reverse PNA and non-PNA winters. [Key words: climatology, climate change, El Nińo/Southern Oscillation, troposphere.]     

Seasonal variability in velocity and ablation of Te Moeka o Tuawe/Fox Glacier, south Westland, New Zealand

Abstract:  Seasonal variations in ablation and surface velocity were investigated on the lower Fox Glacier. Variations occur between summer and winter ablation, with surface velocity also showing marked seasonality. Recent advance has resulted in the glacier gaining around 200 m length since late 2004. Longer term, Fox Glacier appears linked to the Southern Oscillation Index, with positive glacier mass balances associated with negative Southern Oscillation Index (El Niño). An estimated glacier response time of approximately 9–14 years suggests the current terminus advance was linked to mass gains in the mid-1990s. Recent collapses at the terminal face continue to prove a hazard at this busy tourist destination.     

EVALUATION OF GRIDDED PRECIPITATION FOR NORWAY USING GLACIER MASS‐BALANCE MEASUREMENTS

The service seNorge ( http://senorge.no ) provides gridded temperature and precipitation for mainland Norway. The products are provided as interpolated station measurements on a 1 × 1 km grid. Precipitation gauges are predominantly located at lower elevations such as coastal areas and valleys. Therefore, there are large uncertainties in extrapolating precipitation data to higher altitudes, both due to sparsity of observations as well as the large spatial variability of precipitation in mountainous regions. Using gridded temperature and precipitation data from seNorge, surface mass balance was modeled for five Norwegian glaciers of different size and climate conditions. The model accounts for melting of snow and ice by applying a degree‐day approach and considers refreezing assuming a snow depth depended storage. Calculated values are compared to point measurements of glacier winter mass balance. On average for each glacier, modeled and measured surface mass‐balance evolutions agree well, but results at individual stake locations show large variability. Two types of problems were identified: first, grid data were not able to capture spatial mass balance variability at smaller glaciers. Second, a significant increase in the bias between model and observations with altitude for one glacier suggested that orographic enhancement of precipitation was not appropriately captured by the gridded interpolation.     

大气环流因子对北半球气温变化影响的研究

首先分析了北大西洋涛动(NAO)、北太平洋涛动(NPO)和南方涛动(SO)对北半球气温影响的空间分布特征。冬季大气涛动对温度方差贡献主要是在低纬和中高纬大陆地区及北太平洋部分区域,40°N以北大部分陆地总的贡献率达30%以上,热带3/4地区也在30%以上。近百年气温和大气涛动关系表明,三个涛动对北半球冬季、夏季和年平均气温的变化贡献分别达31.8%、2.6%和12.8%,也是以冬季影响最大。用大气涛动可以解释近20多年来气温上升的很大一部分方差,这说明可能在原有气温上升的趋势上,由于叠加了近期大气环流引起的气温变化,所以才形成了70年代末以来的加速变暖现象。     

Glaciological investigations in the balance year 1983–84

In mainland Norway, mass balance measurements were carried out on the Hardangerjøkulen and Storbreen glaciers. Both had a small negative net balance. The two glaciers measured in Svalbard, Broggerbreen and Lovgnbreen, also had negative balances as in the previous 19 years. Length fluctuations measured at eight glacier tongues indicate that one was advancing, one in equilibrium, and six were retreating.     

Interdecadal correlation of solar activity with Tibetan Plateau snow depth and winter atmospheric circulation in East Asia

Studies on the impact of solar activity on climate system are very important in understanding global climate change. Previous studies in this field were mostly focus on temperature, wind and geopotential height. In this paper, interdecadal correlations of solar activity with Winter Snow Depth Index (WSDI) over the Tibetan Plateau, Arctic Oscillation Index (AOI) and the East Asian Winter Monsoon Index (EAWMI) are detected respectively by using Solar Radio Flux (SRF), Total Solar Irradiance (TSI) and Solar Sunspot Number (SSN) data and statistical methods. Arctic Oscillation and East Asian winter monsoon are typical modes of the East Asian atmospheric circulation. Research results show that on interdecadal time scale over 11-year solar cycle, the sun modulated changes of winter snow depth over the Tibetan Plateau and East Asian atmospheric circulation. At the fourth lag year, the correlation coefficient of SRF and snow depth is 0.8013 at 0.05 significance level by Monte-Carlo test method. Our study also shows that winter snow depth over the Tibetan Plateau has significant lead and lag correlations with Arctic Oscillation and the East Asian winter monsoon on long time scale. With more snow in winter, the phase of Arctic Oscillation is positive, and East Asian winter monsoon is weak, while with less snow, the parameters are reversed. An example is the winter of 2012/2013, with decreased Tibetan Plateau snow, phase of Arctic Oscillation was negative, and East Asian winter monsoon was strong.     

蒙古东部野火时空格局及其影响因素

基于MCD64A1过火迹地产品、土地覆盖、植被指数和气候等数据,采用空间统计分析和相关分析方法研究了 2001-2017年蒙古东部野火时空动态及其影响因素.结果表明:(1)4-6月是野火发生最主要的时段,10月野火灾害也较严重,特别集中于年内第107-127、145-189、279-301 日 3个时段;2001-20...     

Relationship between land cover and monsoon interannual variations in east Asia

Asian monsoon have multiple forms of variations such as seasonal variation, intra-seasonal variation, interannual variation, etc. The interannual variations have not only yearly variations but also variations among several years. In general, the yearly variations are described with winter temperature and summer precipitation, and the variations among several years are reflected by circulation of ENSO events. In this study, at first, we analyze the relationship between land cover and interannual monsoon variations represented by precipitation changes using Singular Value Decomposition method based on the time series precipitation data and 8km NOAA AVHRR NDVI data covering 1982 to 1993 in east Asia. Furthermore, after confirmation and reclassification of ENSO events which are recognized as the strong signal of several year monsoon variation, using the same time series NDVI data during 1982 to 1993 in east Asia, we make a Principle Component Analysis and analyzed the correlation of the 7th component eigenvectors and Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) that indicates the characteristic of ENSO events, and summed up the temporal-spatial distribution features of east Asian land cover’s inter-annual variations that are being driven by changes of ENSO events.     

东亚土地覆盖动态与季风气侯年际变化的关系

以东亚地区 １９８２～１９８９年时间序列降水资料及 ＡＶＨＲＲ ８ ｋｍ ＮＤＶＩ数据为基本数据源，应用地理信息系统技术，分别研究了东亚地区夏季（５－９月）降水及土地覆盖的年际变化，并揭示了研究时间段内各自的变化规律。进一步用奇异值分解（ＳＶＤ）模型方法分析了以降水变化为表征的东亚地区气候年际变化与土地覆盖年际变化之间的关系。     

Characteristics of Autumn Precipitation Trends in the Northeastern United States

Previous research has shown that the northeastern United States experienced a significant increase in precipitation during the twentieth century, especially during the autumn. This shift toward wetter conditions can be explained by examining trends in daily precipitation characteristics. Early season precipitation changes in the western portion of the study area were associated with increases in the frequency of precipitation‐days. Later in the season a coincident increase in precipitation‐day intensity enhanced these trends. Tropical storms had little influence on autumn precipitation increases. The study suggests that, instead, changes in regional atmospheric circulation may be responsible for changing precipitation characteristics.     

Glacier Mass Balance in Southern Norway Modelled by Circulation Indices and Spring-Summer Temperatures ad 1781–2000

By stepwise regression analysis the accumulation, ablation, and equilibrium line altitude (ELA) were modelled by circulation indices and spring‐summer temperature on six Norwegian glaciers (Ålfotbreen, Nigardsbreen, Rembesdalsskåka, Storbreen, Hellstugubreen and Gråsubreen). The circulation indices were derived from a gridded monthly mean sea level pressure (MSLP) data set, whereas temperature series were derived from instrumental and proxy data. Analyses showed that accumulation on the western glaciers was strongly related to western airflow perpendicular to the main mountain range releasing precipitation on the glaciers. No other airflow variable significantly improved the regression. For the continental glaciers, circulating air in connection with low pressure systems was also found to be important. This may explain the lack of synchronicity in the glaciers' development in southern Norway during the Holocene. Accumulation was better modelled using the MSLP data set than by using the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) index as predictor. The decadal variations of accumulation, ablation, and ELA were analysed by a Gaussian low pass filter. The well‐known abundant accumulation on Norwegian glaciers during the early 1990s turned out to be unprecedented during the entire series (since 1781), whereas the accumulation of the 1960s has not been lower since the early 19th century according to model results. Ablation increased significantly from the mid‐19th century to the 1930s. The ablation maximum during the 1930s has not yet been exceeded. Also the 1930s show extremely high ELA values.     

Regionalization and Variability of Precipitation in Hawaii

Regions based on seasonal precipitation variability for Hawaii are determined using a principal components analysis applied to 124 stations for the period 1971-2000. Nine regions are delineated and are consistent with known precipitation patterns; leeward and windward stations are in separate regions on all islands. Within each region, the relationship between precipitation and the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is examined using a correlation analysis with the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI), and the Niño 3.4 and Niño 1+2 indices. Precipitation is most frequently correlated with ENSO in the different regions using SOI and Niño 3.4. Using several nonparametric statistical tests, it is determined that while average precipitation received in Hawaii during El Niño events is significantly different from average precipitation (1971-2000) and from precipitation received during La Niña events, the relationship between precipitation and individual ENSO events within regions is rarely significant. Finally, during El Niño or La Niña events, average precipitation receipt across the regions co-varies during winter and summer under concurrent conditions and a one-season lag. Synoptic patterns are examined and indicate a deviation from average conditions during ENSO events that affects subsidence and precipitation patterns.     

Regional climate gradients in precipitation and temperature in response to climate teleconnections in the Greater Everglades ecosystem of South Florida

Precipitation and temperature in Florida responds to climate teleconnections from both the Pacific and Atlantic regions. In this region south of Lake Okeechobee, encompassing NWS Climate Divisions 5, 6, and 7, modern movement of surface waters are managed by the South Florida Water Management District and the US Army Corps of Engineers for flood control, water supply, and Everglades restoration within the constraints of the climatic variability of precipitation and evaporation. Despite relatively narrow, low-relief, but multi-purposed land separating the Atlantic Ocean from the Gulf of Mexico, South Florida has patterns of precipitation and temperature that vary substantially on spatial scales of 10¹–10² km. Here we explore statistically significant linkages to precipitation and temperature that vary seasonally and over small spatial scales with El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO), and the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO). Over the period from 1952 to 2005, ENSO teleconnections exhibited the strongest influence on seasonal precipitation. The Multivariate ENSO Index was positively correlated with winter (dry season) precipitation and explained up to 34 % of dry season precipitation variability along the southwest Florida coast. The AMO was the most influential of these teleconnections during the summer (wet season), with significant positive correlations to South Florida precipitation. These relationships with modern climate parameters have implications for paleoclimatological and paleoecological reconstructions, and future climate predictions from the Greater Everglades system.