大气中偶极子阻塞的观测研究

本文利用日本气象厅发布的北半球5天平均的500hPa位势高度图,对1969—1984年间北半球所产生的偶极子阻塞进行了统计研究,并且还讨论了偶极子阻塞的季节性和区域性变化,同时对偶极子阻塞的纬度分布等问题也作了探讨,得到了许多有意义的结果.     

A tidal model of the northeast pacific

Abstract

The development of a tidal model for the west coast of Canada is described. The model is intermediate in resolution between coarse‐gridded global models and fine‐gridded local models; it provides a good representation of the main shelf regions and also includes a substantial area of the neighbouring ocean. The physical processes relevant to tides in both deep and shallow water are included. Calculations have been carried out for the M₂ and K₁ constituents and the model results were compared with extensive tide‐gauge observations and empirically based charts. For M₂, the agreement between model results and observations is generally excellent, but for K₁, which contains more small‐scale variability, the model results are not quite so good. The variability in K₁ is associated with tidally generated continental shelf waves. Examination of the computed currents and energy fluxes suggests that shelf‐wave components are present in the model solution but, for the Vancouver Island shelf, their propagation is not reproduced accurately. This may be due to deficiencies in the model and/or to the influences of stratification and mean currents, which are neglected here. The model predicts that shelf‐wave components should also occur in diurnal tides on the Alaskan shelf.

The significance of the tide‐generating potential and advection are also examined and further work proposed.     

Influence of the North American Dipole on ENSO onset as simulated by a coupled ocean-Atmosphere model

北美偶极子(NAD)是热带北大西洋西部和北美东北部的南北向海平面气压异常偶极型模态.以往的观测研究表明,NAD可以有效地影响ENSO事件的爆发.本文利用全球耦合模式FGOALS-g2,评估了NAD与ENSO的关系.结果表明,该模式能较好地重现NAD模态.进一步的分析验证了冬季NAD可以通过强迫冬末春初副热带东北太平洋上空的反气旋和暖海温的出现,在随后的冬季触发El Ni?o事件.此外,在同化NAD实验中,发生El Ni?o事件的概率增加了将近一倍.相比之下,NAO未能在副热带东北太平洋上空引起表面风和海温的异常,因而不能有效地激发次年冬季ENSO事件.     

Gas ventilation of the Saguenay fjord by an energetic tidal front

Abstract

Dissolved noble gas samples were taken during a pilot study in the Saguenay Fjord, Quebec, Canada, in order to determine the contribution of different air‐sea gas exchange mechanisms in an estuary and to assess the contribution of tidal fronts to the aeration of subsurface waters. The noble gases He, Ne, Ar, Kr, and Xe span a large range of molecular diffusivities and solubilities and hence constitute a useful probe of various gas exchange and bubble injection processes. Samples were taken at flood tide upstream and downstream of an energetic tidal front that is generated by a hydraulically controlled flow over a shallow sill at the entrance to the Fjord. The results are interpreted with the help of hydrographic measurements of density and currents along cross‐sill transects describing the physical forcing at the sill. High gas saturations downstream of the sill indicate the aeration of water within the frontal region. An inverse model is used to compare the contribution of bubble injection in the front to diffusion across the air‐sea interface. The large ratio of completely ‘trapped’ bubbles to diffusion suggests that bubbles injected by waves breaking in the front contribute significantly to air‐sea gas exchange with 76% for He, 79% for Ne, 56% for Ar, 47% for Kr, and 35% for Xe.

Water samples were analyzed for helium isotopes and tritium in order to explore the possibility of constraining ventilation time scales. The relationship between tritium and salinity revealed two end‐member waters: a freshwater component from the Saguenay River of 23.6 ± 0.5 TU, likely a residual of bomb‐produced tritium, and a seawater end‐member of approximately 1.5 TU originating in the subpolar Atlantic. An unexpected contribution of radiogenic 4He was detected in the deep waters of the St. Lawrence Estuary, likely a consequence of out‐gassing from old, uranium and thorium rich granitic terrain.     

A three-dimensional numerical model of cloud formation and aerosol transport in an orographically inhomogeneous atmospheric boundary layer

A 3-D mesoscale numerical model of cloud formation, fog, and aerosol transport in an orographically inhomogeneous atmospheric boundary layer (ABL) has been considered. Streamlining of the flow around isolated obstacles in steady-state stratified flow has been studied. An account of radiation transfer in the ABL has made it possible to analyze the combined effect of orography and radiation on the formation of fog and cloud, to analyze the interaction between radiation and cloudiness, as well as their effect on the change of mesoscale circulation in the atmosphere and on variations in the optical characteristics of the atmosphere. The transport of aerosols from various sources has been modelled. The impact of orography, cloudiness and atmospheric stratification, governed by the radiative regime of the ABL, on the propagation of admixtures and surface deposition has been studied. The atmospheric aerosol turbidity in zones of intensive industrial pollution has been assessed.     

A study of ozone mini-hole formation using a tracer advection model driven by barotropic dynamics

Summary An ozone mini-hole is a region of strongly depleted column total ozone amounts, associated with the growth of synoptic-scale wave disturbances. Their formation is illustrated here using a sequence of idealised model experiments. Simplified barotropic dynamics are used to drive an ozone tracer advection model on an f-plane representing a hemisphere. Firstly, the Contour Dynamics method is used to integrate the barotropic vorticity equation. Vorticity contours are initialised to simulate typical planetary wave structures and the developing wind field advects components of the ozone model. The vertical profiles of ozone mixing ratio are represented by simple linear functions, separated by a tropopause height field and capped by an upper model boundary. Integrating these profiles thus yields a total column ozone field which is closely dependent on tropopause height. In addition to horizontal advection, a vertical motion parametrisation is included, based on a quasi-geostrophic theory for tropopause displacement. The model is also used to simulate the formation of an actual mini-hole which occurred over northern Europe. Here, observed fields of vorticity, ozone and tropopause height are employed and the system integrated using a pseudo-spectral method. The mini-hole is successfully simulated, despite the simple model dynamics. The results demonstrate the correlation between column total ozone and the tropopause height and confirm the crucial role played by vertical air motions and by the meridional gradients of mid-stratospheric ozone mixing ratios for the formation of ozone mini-holes.With 12 Figures     

热带太平洋与印度洋相互作用的年代际变化及其数值模拟

利用全球海表温度资料和NCEP／NCAR再分析资料,发现热带印度洋偶极子事件与热带太平洋ENSO事件存在相互作用,但其相互作用关系在1961年前后发生了明显的跃变。通过CCM3（community climate model version3）模式,研究了不同年代热带太平洋和热带印度洋SST（seasur—face temperature）变化对其上空大气环流影响的变化,结果表明：1961年后,热带印度洋发生正偶极子事件时,两大洋的垂直环流异常的耦合很强,热带太平洋上空大气环流对印度洋偶极子事件的响应,给太平洋暖事件的异常发展提供了有利条件;同样,热带太平洋暖事件通过对热带印度洋上空大气环流的影响,给印度洋偶极子的异常发展提供了有利条件。     

An assessment of Indo-Pacific oceanic channel dynamics in the FGOALS-g2 coupled climate system model

Lag correlations of sea surface temperature anomalies (SSTAs), sea surface height anomalies (SSHAs), subsurface temperature anomalies, and surface zonal wind anomalies (SZWAs) produced by the Flexible Global Ocean-Atmosphere-Land System model: Grid-point Version 2 (FGOALS-g2) are analyzed and compared with observations. The insignificant, albeit positive, lag correlations between the SSTAs in the southeastern tropical Indian Ocean (STIO) in fall and the SSTAs in the central-eastern Pacific cold tongue in the following summer through fall are found to be not in agreement with the observational analysis. The model, however, does reproduce the significant lag correlations between the SSHAs in the STIO in fall and those in the cold tongue at the one-year time lag in the observations. These, along with the significant lag correlations between the SSTAs in the STIO in fall and the subsurface temperature anomalies in the equatorial Pacific vertical section in the following year, suggest that the Indonesian Throughflow plays an important role in propagating the Indian Ocean anomalies into the equatorial Pacific Ocean. Analyses of the interannual anomalies of the Indonesian Throughflow transport suggest that the FGOALS-g2 climate system simulates, but underestimates, the oceanic channel dynamics between the Indian and Pacific Oceans. FGOALS-g2 is shown to produce lag correlations between the SZWAs over the western equatorial Pacific in fall and the cold tongue SSTAs at the one-year time lag that are too strong to be realistic in comparison with observations. The analyses suggest that the atmospheric bridge over the Indo-Pacific Ocean is overestimated in the FGOALS-g2 coupled climate model.     

二层模式中小地形对于气压跳跃形成的初步研究

应用地面观测站、ERA5再分析资料和高分辨率的WRF模式分析了一次美国博尔德（Boulder）的强下坡风事件, 此次强下坡风暴爆发的机制是高空急流带断裂导致动量下传到背风坡山脚处。进一步分析表明,强下坡风的爆发与天气尺度系统高压脊过境及局地的背风坡重力波有关。在焚风的作用下,背风坡持续变暖导致重力波加强并转竖,侵蚀对流层顶的急流带,最终导致急流带断裂,高空动量下传至地面,强下坡风暴在背风坡爆发。

     

A biometeorological model of an encephalitis vector

Multiple linear regression techniques and seven years of data were used to build a biometeorological model of Winnipeg's mean daily levels of Culex tarsalis Coquillett. An eighth year of data was used to test the model. Hydrologic accounting of precipitation, evapotranspiration and runoff provided estimates of wetness while the warmness of the season was gauged in terms of the average temperature difference from normal and a threshold antecedent temperature regime. These factors were found to be highly correlated with the time-series of Cx. tarsalis counts.The impact of mosquito adulticiding measures was included in the model via a control effectiveness parameter. An activity-level adjustment, based on mean daily temperatures, was also made to the counts. This model can, by monitoring the weather, provide forecasts of Cx. tarsalis populations for Winnipeg with a lead-time of three weeks, thereby, contributing to an early warning of an impending Western Equine Encephalitis outbreak.     

A novel deep neural network model approach to predict Indian Ocean dipole and Equatorial Indian Ocean oscillation indices

Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) and Equatorial Indian Ocean oscillation (EQUINOO) are important climatic system oscillation events in the Indian Ocean region that affects the Indian summer monsoon rainfall (ISMR). The prime focus of this study is to deliberate the influence of these events on ISMR and an attempt has been made to predict these events for future time scales using a Long short term memory (LSTM) deep learning model. LSTM is a special kind of recurrent neural network (RNN) which specializes in learning long-term dependencies and extracting important features. The features learnt by the model is then ranked using correlational analysis (linear and nonlinear). This approach helps in selecting decisive and imperative set of relevant predictors, which can be employed to predict IOD and EQUINOO. Nonlinear correlational identified predictors are found to forecast with greater precision as to their linear counterparts. The model-calibrated correlation coefficient for IOD and for EQUNIOO was 0.90 and 0.88 respectively at a lead of 5 months. Our proposed model was observed to work at par with the other existing models in terms of various statistical evaluation measures.     

A 1-D model of the formation and evolution of Polar Stratospheric Clouds

A 1-D model of the formation and seasonal evolution of Polar Stratospheric Clouds (PSCs) is described. The model considers PSCs of types 1 and 2 in the vertical range from 8 to 30 km and utilizes real temperature data. The micro-physical processes included in the model are the heterogeneous nucleation and condensation (or evaporation), while sedimentation, gas diffusion and vertical wind velocity are the processes responsible for transport. Model simulations have been compared with PSC data obtained by lidar at the South Pole: results for the winter 1990 are discussed. The different contribution of type 1 and type 2 PSCs to the measured backscattering coefficient has been evidenced. In the simulations, layers of NAT particles form when low values of the backscattering coefficient are measured; similarly, ice particles form when sharper and rapidly changeable structures with higher values of the backscattering coefficient are observed. Significant results on the condensation and depletion of HNO₃ and H₂O are presented. Water vapor profiles measured during winter 1990 are reproduced quite well.     

A spatial model of snowmelt-rainfall runoff formation of the mountain river (by the example of the Upper Kuban River)

A spatial model is proposed of snowmelt-rainfall runoff formation of the mountain river enabling to take account of spatial inhomogeneity of the river catchment and vertical zoning of physiographic and meteorological conditions. The model describes the processes of snow cover formation at various altitudes and snow melting, infiltration into the soils, evaporation, and overland, subsurface and riverbed flows. The verification of the model was carried out from the observational data in the Kuban River basin up to the town of Armavir.     

Numerical simulation of tropical cyclones by an axisymmetric nonhydrostatic model

Summary As an approach to study the mesoscale processes within a typhoon, an axisymmetric nonhydrostatic numerical model is developed without the use of convective parameterization. Many simulated characteristics are consistent with radar and aircraft observations, such as the maximum of vertical and tangential wind, the inflow concentrated near the surface, the outward slope of the eyewall updraft, etc. The model duplicates not only the outward propagation of mesoscale convective systems, but also the inward movement of convective rings, the rate of which coincides with the observation. Besides, the model gives good simulations of the life cycle of convective rings, and indicates that the convective rings far from the eyewall play important roles in the fluctuation of typhoon intensity. Numerical results also exhibit the existence of coupling between outer and inner core structure.Analyses of the simulations show that convective momentum transport generates local maximum absolute angular momentum in the middle and upper troposphere. The momentum anomaly results in symmetric instability, which provides the environment to form convective rings. While the momentum anomaly moves outward with the outflow in the middle and upper troposphere, it initiates a series of convective rings with aid of other direct factors, which explains the outward propagation of convective systems.The simulations exhibit the life cycle of a typical convective ring in terms of three stages, or the developing, mature and dissipating stage. Analysis shows that the symmetric instability and the convective instability promote each other, and their cooperation makes the life of convective rings longer.With 8 Figures     

A comparative study of the observations of high clouds and simulations by an atmospheric general circulation model

The importance of clouds in the upper troposphere (cirrus) for the sensitivity of the Earth's climate e.g., requires that these clouds be modeled accurately in general circulation model (GCM) studies of the atmosphere. Bearing in mind the lack of unambiguous quantitative information on the geographical distribution and properties of high clouds, the simulated distribution of upper tropospheric clouds in a spectral GCM is compared with several satellite-derived data-sets that pertain to high clouds only, for both winter and summer seasons. In the model, clouds are assumed to occupy an entire gridbox whenever the relative humidity exceeds 99%: otherwise the grid box is assumed to be free of cloud. Despite the simplicity of the cloud prediction scheme, the geographical distribution of the maxima in the model's upper tropospheric cloud cover coincides approximately with the regions of the observed maxima in the high cloud amount and their frequency of occurrence (e.g., intertropical convergence zone and the monsoon areas). These areas exhibit a minimum in the outgoing longwave radiation (OLR; Nimbus-7) and are also coincident with regions of heavy precipitation. The model, with its relatively simple cloud formation scheme, appears to capture the principal large-scale features of the tropical convective processes that are evident in the satellite and precipitation datasets, wherein the intense, upward motion is accompanied by condensation and the spreading of thick upper tropospheric layers of high relative humidity and cloudiness in the vicinity of the tropical rainbelt regions.This paper was presented at the International Conference on Modelling of Global Climate Change and Variability, held in Hamburg 11–15 September 1989 under the auspices of the Meteorological Institute of the University of Hamburg and the Max Planck Institute for Meteorology. Guest Editor for these papers is Dr. L. Dümenil     

近期气候预测系统IAP-DecPreS对印度洋偶极子的回报技巧:全场同化和异常场同化的比较

印度洋偶极子（IOD）是热带印度洋年际变率主导模态之一,对于区域乃至全球气候有重要影响。准确预报IOD对于短期气候预测具有重要意义。中国科学院大气物理研究所最近建立了近期气候预测系统IAP-DecPreS,其初始化方案采用“集合最优插值—分析增量更新”（EnOI-IAU）方案,能够同化观测的海洋次表层温度廓线资料。本文分析了IAP-DecPreS季节回报试验对IOD的回报技巧,重点比较了全场同化和异常场同化两种初始化策略下预测系统对IOD的回报技巧。分析表明,8月起报秋季IOD,无论从确定性预报还是概率性预报的角度,基于全场同化的回报试验技巧均高于异常场同化的回报试验。对于5月起报的秋季IOD,基于两种初始化策略的回报试验技巧相当。研究发现,全场同化策略相对于异常场的优势主要源于它提高了对伴随ENSO发生的IOD的预报技巧。ENSO遥强迫触发的热带东印度洋“风—蒸发—SST”正反馈过程是IOD发展和维持的关键。采用全场同化策略的回报结果能够更好地模拟出IOD发展过程中ENSO遥强迫产生的异常降水场和异常风场的空间分布特征;而采用异常场同化策略,模拟的异常降水场和风场偏差较大。导致两种初始化策略预测结果技巧差异的主要原因是,全场同化能够减小模式对热带印度洋气候平均态降水固有的模拟偏差,从而提升了热带印度洋对ENSO遥强迫响应的模拟能力。而异常场同化由于在同化过程中保持了模式固有的气候平均态,因此模拟的热带印度洋对ENSO遥强迫的响应存在与模式自由积分类似的模拟偏差。     

SVD揭示的印度洋海气相互作用模态及其与中国降水的联系

利用1958-1999年6-8月平均的GISST(Global Indian Sea Surface Temperature)海表温度资料和同期850 hPa水平风场等NCEP/NCAR再分析资料,作了向量奇异值分解,并对各个模态作了相应分析,发现前两个模态可以很好地表示出印度洋海气耦合的主要部分:第1模态是印度洋海温对ENSO信号的滞后响应;第2模态反映了存在于印度洋的海-气相互作用现象,是ENSO和IOD(Indian Ocean Dipole,印度洋偶极子)的混合模态.讨论了前两个模态与中国夏季降水等变化的联系,发现印度洋海温单极模态与我国华南夏季降水存在负相关,与长江流域及其以北地区存在正相关;印度洋偶极型海温与我国降水的关系不典型.     

A simple model for potential dewfall in an arid region

It is not always easy to know, post-facto, whether both dewfall and fog may have occurred over a given evening period. Instrumentation limitations make it difficult to quantify dew deposition since they rely on artificial sensing surfaces that are either visually examined on a daily basis or recorded. In arid to Mediterranean regions, both dew and fog can play significant ecological roles as suppliers of moisture. Long-term observation records of dew and fog in such regions tend to be limited, however, due partly to a lack of interest and limited distribution of well-instrumented meteorological stations. Simple meteorological criteria are suggested here to calculate potential dewfall and to indicate whether fog was likely to have occurred over a given evening. A field campaign was carried out in the NW Negev desert, Israel, in September and October 1997, to collect meteorological data and carry out dewfall measurements.     

A Boolean delay equation model of an interdecadal Arctic climate cycle

A Boolean delay equation (BDE) model is presented for the interdecadal Arctic and Greenland Sea climate cycle recently proposed by Mysak, Manak and Marsden. It is shown that 15- to 20-year oscillations can occur in the model for a variety of time delays in the BDEs. However, both the period and structure of the oscillations are sensitive to the initial conditions. In an extended model, in which the convection in the Greenland Sea is dependent upon the ice conditions during each of several previous years as well as the current year, the solution structure is more realistic, with two jumps per period of oscillation.