青藏高原城镇化格局的时空分异特征及影响因素

研究青藏高原城镇化格局的时空分异及其影响因素,有利于推动青藏高原现代人类活动时空过程的认知,对青藏高原就地就近城镇化及可持续发展具有参考意义。根据历次人口普查数据,本研究构建青藏高原县市尺度城镇化空间数据集,参考城镇化发展阶段,采用LISA空间类型划分法和空间计量回归模型,系统分析1990-2010年青藏高原内部城镇化格局的时空分异特征及影响因素。主要结论包括：① 青藏高原整体城镇化水平偏低,2017年底,青藏高原主体部分青海省和西藏自治区的常住人口城镇化水平分别为53.07%和30.8%,低于全国同期水平的58.52%,但青藏高原内不乏高水平城镇化地区,而且各地区间城镇化水平的空间差异缩小;② 青海西部柴达木盆地是高水平城镇化集聚区,羌塘地区是低水平城镇化集聚区,地级行政中心所在县市多呈现自身高、周边低的城镇化格局;③ 与内地相似,第二、三产业从业机会是推动青藏高原城镇化发展重要因素,社会公共服务资源对城镇化拉动作用开始凸显。研究结果可以为青藏高原人类活动研究和青藏高原就地就近城镇化可持续发展政策提供参考。     

基于综合承载力的北京市适度人口研究

北京作为中国的政治、经济和文化中心,资源短缺、交通拥堵和生态环境恶化等问题日益严重,确定其适度人口规模,对引导区域人口合理流动和环境保护具有一定的现实意义。本文基于综合承载力,对已有的适度人口模型进行了改进：利用主成分分析法和熵权法确定生态、经济和资源承载系统的权重;经济承载人口测算指标不局限于地区生产总值（GDP）这一单一指标;资源承载人口综合考虑了土地资源和水资源承载力。本文通过综合分析2004-2014年北京各项承载人口和适度人口,结果表明：① 生态承载人口规模在波动中有增长的趋势,由717.38万人上升至753.14万人,一直处于人口超载状态;② 经济承载人口一直处于富余状态,但规模由5297.18万人减少至3802.06万人。第三产业产值所承载的人口对经济承载人口的贡献最大,在2014年达到65.15%;③ 资源承载人口规模处于波动状态,2014年为139.61万人,超载率逐年增加。土地资源承载力对资源承载人口的贡献大于水资源,2014年贡献率达79.91%;④ 北京市适度人口规模从2004年的2031.15万人减少至2014年的1550.67万人,2008年开始出现人口赤字,且人口超载率逐年攀升。经济承载人口对适度人口贡献率维持在80%以上,生态和资源承载人口的贡献率平均值分别为14%和3%。人口资源压力指数在波动中有上升的趋势,从2004年的9.45上升至2014年的15.41,资源约束已经成为阻碍城市发展的主要因素,经济承载力是维持适度人口规模缓慢减小的主要动力。     

SUSTAINABLE URBAN-RURAL RELATION IN RAPID URBANIZATION AREAS——Case of Transformation of "Urban Village" in Guangzhou

1IN T R O D U C T IO NDue to acceleratingurban sprawl and suburbanizatio,nlargeareaoffarmlandwere changed intonon-agricultur-allanduse sincethelate1990s,especiallyinSouth Chi-na.Meanwhile some villageswere surrounded by urbanbuilt-upareasand became"thevillagesin urban area",which arenamed hereas"urban villages."Specificallyindefinitio,nurban villageisa ruralcom munity inurbanbuilt-upareasbecause of drasticurban sprawl,subur-banizationand industriadlispersion.A nd inrealityur-ban villagee…     

山东半岛城市群城市土地扩张与人口增长协调性研究

新型城镇化是以人为核心的城镇化,山东半岛城市群作为我国11个国家级城市群之一,近年来城镇化发展速度不断加快。以山东半岛城市群8个设区城市为研究对象,通过构建城市土地扩张与人口增长协调关系模型,计算8个城市的土地扩张与人口增长协调度,并根据城市土地扩张与人口增长的协调性分级标准,把1994年和2013年8个城市的土地扩张与人口增长协调性关系进行分等定级评价。结果表明:山东半岛城市群城市土地扩张与人口增长的协调性较弱,呈现出土地快速扩张态势。8个城市中有5个城市表现为土地快速扩张,其中2个城市表现为土地显著扩张,3个城市表现为土地明显扩张;人地基本协调的仅有3个,协调性空间分异明显。针对8个城市土地扩张与人口增长间不同类型的协调度,提出发展建议,促进山东半岛城市群城市土地扩张与人口增长协调发展,提高城镇化发展质量。     

基于地理分区与FLUS模型的城市扩张模拟与预警

城市的快速扩张不断改变着土地资源的转化,带来了诸多生态环境问题。分析和模拟城市扩张的机制,并对城市未来土地利用变化的风险进行预警,利于合理调控城市的发展。本文提出了一种基于地理分区和未来用地模拟(Future Land Use Simulation,FLUS)模型的城市扩张模拟模型,用于模拟和预测复杂的土地利用变化。该模型利用多指标数据进行空间聚类,耦合地理分区结果进行城市扩张模拟。珠江三角洲2005-2015年的城市扩张模拟结果显示,分区下的模拟精度(FoM=0.2329,提高了9%)明显高于未分区,说明不同分区在土地利用转化上存在空间差异,该模型能更有效地模拟城市土地利用变化。另外,本文构建了一种城市扩张预警指标评价体系,用于评估城市扩张的警情。根据在2005-2015基础上预测的2025-2045年土地利用变化结果,对珠江三角洲城市扩张进行多尺度预警分析。综合预警结果显示该区域大部分城市至2045年城市扩张警情将达到中警和重警,其中东莞警情一直维持在重警。由此,未来需要加强对珠三角城市扩张的宏观调控,以此来缓解未来城市扩张的警情。     

Coordination of urbanization and water ecological environment in Shayinghe River Basin,China

During the rapid industrialization and urbanization of China,urban agglomeration in river basin areas raises the problems of over-use of water resources and pollution of the water environment.Related research in China has mainly focused on the conflicts among economic growth,urban expansion and water resource shortages within admin-istrative boundaries.However,water environments are much more dependent on their physical boundaries than their administrative boundaries.Consistent with the nature of water environment,this study aims at analyzing coordination relationships between urban development and water environment changes within physical river basin boundaries.We chose the Shayinghe River Basin,China,as our case study area which is facing serious challenges related to water en-vironment protection.Then we classified 35 county-level administrative units into upstream,midstream and down-stream regions based on their physical characteristics;analyzed the coordination degree of urban agglomeration using the Technique for Order Preference by Similarity to Ideal Solution (TOPSIS) method;and constructed cooperative models using the Linear Programming (LP function) to simulate four scenarios of the coordination relationship be-tween urban population increase and water environment protection based on existing water resources and water pollu-tion data.The results show that the present coordinative situation in Shayinghe River Basin is not sustainable.In gen-eral,more than 50% administrative units are in the bad coordinative situation.In particular,the downstream region is under worse condition than the upstream and midstream regions.Cooperative models in scenario analyses indicate that the population scale set in existing urban master plannings is not coordinated with the water environment protection.To reach the goal of regional sustainable development,the total population needs to be controlled such that it will re-main at 4.5×10 7 or below by 2020 given the capacity of water environment.     

SUSTAINABLE URBAN-RURAL RELATION IN RAPID URBANIZATION AREAS——Case of Transformation of “Urban Village” in Guangzhou

Many studies have been made concerning the problems, characteristics, formation, transformation measures, etc. of urban village from sociology, urban planning and geography, etc., which have made insightful analysis. However, most of these studies started mainly from the standpoint of the city govemment, drumming for the land- scape-oriented urbanization, namely pulling-down the urban village and constructing the splendid residence or business buildings. The article maintains that the most important thing the city government should do is to pay much attention to the sustainable living of urban villagers, who would lose their main income source, namely, the collective dividend and the family housing rent. The single method of compensation has been proved to be harmful to the villagers＇ community, in which some young villagers relying on rent were no longer to do anything but stay at home. On the other hand, considering the floating population has become the main stream of renters in urban villages, the emergence of urban villages was inevitable and would continue to exist in a long time under the socio-economic transition in urban China and globalization. Based on the analysis above, the transformation of urban village should take more concerns on the housing demands of floating population besides compensation for local villagers. Meanwhile, it is necessary to avoid the “landscape-oriented urbanization” without the “peasant-to-citizen” transformation.     

Social effect of environmental pollution on valley-cities in western China

Accompanied with the acceleration of urbanization and industrialization, the large and medium-scale valley-cities in the western China are facing environmental problems at respective levels in common. The urban environmental pollution causes economic losses, and also brings out negative effects on urban society. Based on the social investigation method, this paper aims to study the harms to urban society brought by environmental pollution. After the investigation to the inhabitants of six typical valley-cities: Lanzhou, Xining, Chongqing, Baiyin, Luzhou and Zigong, we found that the urban environmental pollution has resulted in negative influences with different levels on residents' physical, psychological, work, recreations, studies and social activities. The problem of environmental pollution has become a serious restriction to sustainable development of cities mentioned above. Herewith, it has become urgent to strengthen the government regulations for controlling urban environmental pollution.     

多尺度视角下的青藏高原水资源短缺估算及空间格局

青藏高原水资源总量丰富,但由于水资源量与用水量在空间上分布不均衡,部分人口、城镇密集地区水资源短缺严重。本研究在多源数据的基础上,通过空间分析、降尺度处理等,建立了青藏高原省区、市域、县域空间尺度的水资源与用水量数据集。通过比较5、10、20、30年重现期多空间尺度的水资源短缺程度,分析水资源短缺在青藏高原的尺度效应,揭示青藏高原水资源短缺格局与特征,识别面临水资源短缺的人口与面积。结果表明,青藏高原在省区尺度无水资源短缺;在15个市域单元中,有3个市域出现水资源短缺;在115个县域单元中,有29个县域呈现出不同程度的水资源短缺,水资源短缺县域主要集中在青海省的河湟谷地、柴达木盆地与西藏自治区的一江两河流域等人口、城镇密集区域。总体而言,由于较大空间尺度地理单元内部各县域用水强度差异,在县域尺度面临水资源短缺的人口与面积大于市域与省区尺度面临水资源短缺的人口与面积。以县域为基本单元,发现青海省与西藏自治区30年重现期面临水资源短缺的人口占总人口的56.4%,出现水资源短缺的面积占总面积的10.4%。县域之间水资源短缺指数秩相关系数计算结果显示,省区内部各县域同时出现水资源短缺的可能性较大,而省区之间各县域同时出现水资源短缺的可能性相对随机。研究结果为制定青藏高原水资源短缺管理对策、促进区域城镇化与资源环境协调发展提供科学依据。     

青藏高原城镇体系的时空演变

城镇体系的形成和发育对区域城镇化进程及社会经济发展起着至关重要的作用,并对生态环境产生重要影响。青藏高原特殊的地理环境与相对落后的社会经济基础,导致城镇体系不甚健全。目前国内外相关研究薄弱,不利于国家生态安全屏障建设及青藏高原可持续发展。为此,本文以建制镇以上的镇区和城市市区为研究对象,结合统计数据与遥感数据,借助GIS空间分析方法对青藏高原1990-2015年城镇体系的空间结构和规模结构进行时空演变格局分析,并采用重心移动模型揭示了青藏高原城镇人口规模和用地规模重心的迁移规律。结果表明：青藏高原城镇空间分布总体呈现出“东南密集、西北稀疏”、“大分散、小集聚”的格局;城镇分布在时间上具有阶段性增长特征且总体趋于集聚,在空间上不均衡程度呈上升趋势但2005年后明显减缓;虽然建制镇数量大幅增长,但96.88%的城镇规模在5万人以下,大中小城市发育不足;城镇人口规模重心呈现“先向西南,再向东北,又向西南”的移动轨迹;城镇用地规模重心呈现“先向东南,再向西北,再向东北”的迁移趋势。本文研究了青藏高原城镇体系的规模结构及其时空演变特征,为青藏高原新型城镇化及城镇空间格局优化提供基础依据;提出了资料缺乏和统计口径不一致的条件下城镇规模的合理估算方法,对我国城镇化相关研究具有一定的参考价值。     

Land-Use Changes and Human Driving in and Near the Yangtze River Delta from 1995–2015

We analyzed the characteristics and trends of land-use change in and near the coastal zone of the Yangtze River Delta (YRD) during five periods (1995, 2000 2005, 2010, and 2015) using remotely sensed Landsat imagery. Using automatic supervised classification combined with visual interpretation, we obtained land-use information for five study areas (Nantong, Shanghai, Jiaxing, Ningbo, and Zhoushan). Significant land-use changes have occurred in this area between 1995 and 2015, characterized in particular by large reductions in cultivated land and rapid increases in urbanized land. In addition, land reclamation was very active in this period as an effective supplement to the increased demand for land development: since 1995, 1622 km² of land was reclaimed from near-coastal regions in the study area. This increase in urbanization was jointly driven by population, economic, transportation, and policy factors. Urban areas expanded from the center outward in concentric rings, with infrastructure guiding the radial expansion of development along transportation corridors, thus forming a network of connections. Due to the influence of national land regulation policies, the expansion rate of development in the YRD gradually diminished after 2010. This indicates that the area’s resource and environmental carrying capacity has reached a saturation stage in which urbanization has transitioned from broad and incremental expansion to the intensive use of land resources.     

ECOLOGICAL PROBLEMS ON THE URBAN DEVELOPMENT IN THE TAIHU LAKE REGION OF SOUTHERN JIANGSU

The Taihu Lake region in southern Jiangsu is one of the regions with flourishing economy and the highest level of urbanization due to favourable natural conditions and socio-economic foundation. However, there emerge a seriers of urban ecological problems on continuous stretch of cities and towns, a vague division of urban functions, ground subsidence, serious pollution of atmosphere and waters arising from dense population, irrational distribution of industry, backwardeness of municipal engineering facilities, and inexperienced scientific management of water resources. In order to improve the urban eco-environment in this lake region, we should work out an overall regional eco梕nvironmental programme, perfect the urban economic set-up from the reqirements of urban material circulations and energy exchanges, and finally put into practice the urban functional regionalism, so that the Taihu Lake region in southern Jiangsu has not only a higher economic benefit, but also a beautiful and comfortable eco-env     

Non-coordination in China＇s Urbanization： Assessment and Affecting Factors

Urbanization is a comprehensive concept, a trinity process that population urbanization, economic urbanization and space urbanization, is based on the interactions and mutual influences among the in which, people are the central and leading players in this process, while economic activities serve as the driving force and space is the carrier-the physical or material setting as well as the product. So the coordination among these processes is crucial for a country or region＇s sustainable development. China is experiencing rapid growth of cities and a surge in urban population, with the basic national condition of many people and little land, which calls for a systematic study of the issue of coordinated urbanization from theoretical, methodological and practical perspectives. Based on the concept of urbanization and non-coordination of urbanization, this article built a quantitative method to identify and evaluate the urbanization and non-coordination of urbanization, and made an empirical analysis in China between 2000 and 2008. The results show that the non-coordination overall level of China＇s urbanization declined during the study period, because population urbanization, economic urbanization, and space urbanization exhibited different trajectories of change. This study also reveals that performance assessment system, household registration system, and urban land expropriation system, etc., are the main affecting factors. At the end, we put forward some suggestions to achieve sustainable development of China＇s urbanization from the aspects of improving the local government＇s obiective function, imolementing the urban plalming svstem, enforcing public particination asnects and so on.     

Regional Differences of China′s Urban Expansion from Late 20th to Early 21st Century Based on Remote Sensing Information

This study investigated the regional differences of China′s urban land expansion from the late 1980s to the year of 2008, based on the spatio-temporal analysis of CLCD (China′s land cover/land use database) datasets which were mainly produced from remote sensing imagery data. A newly defined urbanization level index (UI), based on urban land area, is proposed to describe Chinese urban expansion process at 1 kilometer, provincial, regional, and na-tional scales, together with the absolute urban expansion index (UEa) and the relative urbanization expansion index (UEr). The results indicate that the percentages of total land area occupied by urban in the late 1980s, 1995, 2000, 2005, and 2008 were approximately 0.25%, 0.32%, 0.33%, 0.43% and 0.52% of China′s total land area, respectively. Between the late 1980s and 2008, the total urban expansion in the mainland of China was 2.645 × 104 km2, resulting in an annual urban expansion area of about 1322.7 km2/yr, with the UEr of 111.9%. This study also finds that there has been an obvious spatial gradient of urbanization ratio running from the east coast to the west inland, and the urbanization gaps among different regions have persisted over the past two decades. The study also reveals obvious temporal varia-tions of the urbanization rates. There was very little urban growth during the period of 1995-2000 due to the governmental policy factors.     

城郊型村庄用地发展问题研究—以2002—2014年莱芜市高庄坡草洼村为例

在城镇化快速演进的背景下,我国建设用地扩展导致耕地面积减少已成为学界共识。农民对城镇化进程成本支付能力低,土地成为来分享财富用于城镇化的工具,导致农村地区频频出现村庄“空壳化”、城镇人口“两头占地”、土地利用粗放等现象。作为城郊型村庄具有明显的区位优势、环境优势和资源优势,不断诱发村庄建设用地扩展、延伸,使土地集约利用的趋势更为严峻。该文通过研究坡草洼村近12年的村庄形态的演变进程,挖掘造成村庄土地利用混乱、耕地面积不断减少、人均建设用地不断增加的原因。在保障农民土地财产权的前提下,应让静态的土地“流”起来,使沉睡的资源“活”起来,不仅能解决“就地城镇化”的土地瓶颈问题,还能让村民生活质量真正的“市民化”。     

城市边缘区空间发展探讨——以北京市海淀区为例

在快速城镇化时期,城市边缘区是城市扩张过程中空间结构变化最大、土地利用转变最快的地区,以过渡性、复杂性、动态性为突出特征。研究城市边缘区的空间演变对认识城镇化、优化城市空间结构等具有重要意义。本文在总结海淀区空间发展历史渊源的基础上,采用了RS/GIS技术对20世纪80年代以来海淀城市边缘区的范围、空间扩张进行了定量分析;并结合系统论方法,探索影响海淀城市边缘区空间演变的若干因素。研究发现：海淀城市边缘区空间发展有独特的地理优势和文化渊源,且在政策、经济、人口、交通等因素的综合作用下,处于不断动态变化之中;呈现出沿环线不规则分布、边界由清晰变模糊、整体向西北推移的空间特征;总面积逐渐增加、年扩张速率先升后降;1995-2007年以向外扩张为主,其他阶段以内部填充型发展为主;空间分布及扩张强度在不同乡镇街道具有区域差异性等。本文将RS/GIS技术与系统分析相结合,来研究城市边缘区相关问题的技术可行性。     

Urban Spatial Restructuring in Transitional Economy —— Changing Land Use Pattern in Shanghai

For almost three decades, China has been undergoing significant transition from a planned economy to a market economy. Fast-paced economic growth and urbanization, interacting with market-oriented reforms in land re- sources allocation, have caused profound spatial restructuring of Chinese cities. This paper examines urban expansion and land use reconfiguration in Shanghai’s central city from 1979 to 2002, with a special focus on the effect of the adoption of the land-leasing system in 1988. The empirical research, which employs GIS-based spatial analysis tech- niques to explore land use data for multiple years, indicates fundamental changes in the spatial characteristics of urban development in Shanghai after this important land policy reform.     

重庆市主城区1986-2007年用地时空演化特征分析

本文以重庆市主城区为例,通过GIS构建城市用地变化模型对重庆市城市用地20年来的时空演变规律进行了分析,分别对其城市用地利用程度、城市用地多样性和城市用地重心变化进行了评价,并考虑入口和海拔因素,讨论了重庆市城市用地发展的主要特点.结果表明;(1)重庆市主城区城市用地中耕地面积最多,其次是林地,城市景观所占比例较轻.2...     

青岛市城中村土地征用(收)调查

随着全国大部分地区尤其是东部沿海区域城市化发展进入加速期,城区土地资源紧张问题愈发显现。同时城区内大片旧城区和城中村的改造,影响着城市化能否顺利实施,为了破解这一城市发展难题,青岛市国土部门创新思路,探索实施新的城中村土地征用(收)办法,全方位保障被拆迁群众的利益,推动了城市化的顺利实施,促进了社会的和谐和城市经济健康发展。     

黄河三角洲高效生态经济区土地利用结构优化与调整初探

黄河三角洲具有独特的地理区位,黄河三角洲高效生态经济区规划上升为国家战略后,黄河三角洲高效生态经济区（以下简称黄三角）的开发与建设引起社会广泛的关注,土地利用结构调整与优化也成为新常态下具有重要意义的课题。该文探讨了黄三角地区土地资源利用结构的特点,分析了土地利用中存在的结构性问题,探索了土地利用结构调整、优化、升级趋势和方向,提出了土地利用结构调整中应该注意的问题,为发挥区域土地资源优势,促进黄三角经济社会又好又快发展提供一定的借鉴。