Quantifying the flow dynamics of supercritical CO2–water displacement in a 2D porous micromodel using fluorescent microscopy and microscopic PIV

The multi-phase flow of liquid/supercritical CO₂ and water (non-wetting and wetting phases, respectively) in a two-dimensional silicon micromodel was investigated at reservoir conditions (80 bar, 24 °C and 40 °C). The fluorescent microscopy and microscopic particle image velocimetry (micro-PIV) techniques were combined to quantify the flow dynamics associated with displacement of water by CO₂ (drainage) in the porous matrix. To this end, water was seeded with fluorescent tracer particles, CO₂ was tagged with a fluorescent dye and each phase was imaged independently using spectral separation in conjunction with microscopic imaging. This approach allowed simultaneous measurement of the spatially-resolved instantaneous velocity field in the water and quantification of the spatial configuration of the two fluid phases. The results, acquired with sufficient time resolution to follow the dynamic progression of both phases, provide a comprehensive picture of the flow physics during the migration of the CO₂ front, the temporal evolution of individual menisci, and the growth of fingers within the porous microstructure. During that growth process, velocity jumps 20–25 times larger in magnitude than the bulk velocity were measured in the water phase and these bursts of water flow occurred both in-line with and against the bulk flow direction. These unsteady velocity events support the notion of pressure bursts and Haines jumps during pore drainage events as previously reported in the literature [1–3]. After passage of the CO₂ front, shear-induced flow was detected in the trapped water ganglia in the form of circulation zones near the CO₂–water interfaces as well as in the thin water films wetting the surfaces of the silicon micromodel. To our knowledge, the results presented herein represent the first quantitative spatially and temporally resolved velocity-field measurements at high pressure for water displacement by liquid/supercritical CO₂ injection in a porous micromodel.     

Effect of Surface Morphology on the Dissipation During Shear and Slip Along a Rock–Rock Interface that Contains a Visco-elastic Core

High resolution topography measurements of the Vuache–Sillingy fault (Alps, France) reveal a characteristic roughness of the fault zone. We investigate the effect of roughness on the rheology of a planar shear configuration by using a model system consisting of a visco-elastic layer embedded into a rigid solid. The model is discussed in the context of several geological cases: a damage fault zone, a fault smeared with a clay layer, and a shear zone with strain weakening. Using both analytical approaches and finite element simulations, we calculate to linear order the relation between wall roughness and the viscous dissipation in the fault zone as well as the average shear rate.     

Implementation of a wetting-and-drying model in simulating the Kennebec–Androscoggin plume and the circulation in Casco Bay

A high-resolution coastal ocean model was developed to simulate the temporal/spatial variability of the Kennebec–Androscoggin (K–A) river plume and the circulation in Casco Bay. The model results agree favorably with the moored and shipboard observations of velocity, temperature, and salinity. The surface salinity gradient was used to distinguish the plume from the ambient coastal water. The calculated plume thickness suggests that the K–A plume is surface trapped. Its horizontal scales correlate well with Q ^0.25, where Q is the volume discharge of the rivers. Directional spreading is affected by the wind with the upwelling favorable wind transporting the plume water offshore. Both the wind and the tide also enhance mixing in the plume. The inclusion of a wetting-and-drying (WAD) scheme appears to enhance the mixing and entrainment processes near the estuary. The plume becomes thicker near the mouth of the estuary, the outflow velocity of the plume is weaker, and the radius of the river plume shrinks. The flow field in the model run with the WAD is noisier, not only in shallow areas of Casco Bay but also in the plume and even on the shelf. We speculate that the WAD processes can affect much larger areas than the intertidal zones, especially via a river plume that feeds into a coastal current.     

Inter-annual and seasonal variations in the air–sea CO2 balance in the central Baltic Sea and the Kattegat

We estimated the net annual air–sea exchange of carbon dioxide (CO₂) using monitoring data from the East Gotland Sea, Bornholm Sea, and Kattegat for the 1993–2009 period. Wind speed and the sea surface partial pressure of CO₂ (pCO₂^w), calculated from pH, total alkalinity, temperature, and salinity, were used for the flux calculations. We demonstrate that regions in the central Baltic Sea and the Kattegat alternate between being sinks (−) and sources (+) of CO₂ within the −4.2 to +5.2 mol m⁻² yr⁻¹ range. On average, for the 1994–2008 period, the East Gotland Sea was a source of CO₂ (1.64 mol m⁻² yr⁻¹), the Bornholm Sea was a source (2.34 mol m⁻² yr⁻¹), and the Kattegat was a sink (−1.16 mol m⁻² yr⁻¹). Large inter-annual and regional variations in the air–sea balance were observed. We used two parameterizations for the gas transfer velocity (k) and the choice varied the air–sea exchange by a factor of two. Inter-annual variations in pCO₂^w between summers were controlled by the maximum concentration of phosphate in winter. Inter-annual variations in the CO₂ flux and gas transfer velocity were larger between winters than between summers. This indicates that the inter-annual variability in the total flux was controlled by winter conditions. The large differences between the central Baltic Sea and Kattegat were considered to depend partly on the differences in the mixed layer depth.     

Space–time changes in hydrological processes in response to human activities and climatic change in the south China

Due to the influence of climate change and human activities, more and more regions around the world are nowadays facing serious water shortages. This is particularly so with the Guangdong province, an economically prosperous region in China. This study aims at understanding the abrupt behavior of hydrological processes by analyzing monthly precipitation series from 257 rain gauging stations and monthly streamflow series from 25 hydrological stations using the likelihood ratio statistic and schwarz information criterion (SIC). The underlying causes of the changing properties of hydrological processes are investigated by analyzing precipitation changes and information of water reservoirs. It is found that (1) streamflow series in dry season seems to exhibit abrupt changes when compared to that in the flood season; (2) abrupt changes in the values of mean and variance of hydrological variables in the dry season are more common than those in the streamflow series in the flood season, which implies that streamflow in the dry season is more sensitive to human activities and climate change than that in the flood season; (3) no change points are identified in the annual precipitation and precipitation series in the flood season. Annual streamflow and streamflow in the flood season exhibit no abrupt changes, showing the influence of precipitation on streamflow changes in the flood season. However, streamflow changes in the dry season seem to be heavily influenced by hydrological regulations of water reservoirs. The results of this study are of practical importance for regional water resource management in the Guangdong province.     

Using hysteretic behaviour and hydrograph classification to identify hydrological function across the “hillslope–depression–stream” continuum in a karst catchment

In cockpit karst landscapes, fluxes from upland areas contribute large volumes of water to low-lying depressions and stream flow. Hydrograph hysteresis and similarity between monitoring sites is important for understanding the space–time variability of hydrologic responses across the “hillslope–depression–stream” continuum. In this study, the hysteretic feature of hydrographs was assessed by characterizing the loop-like relationships between responses at upstream sites relative to subsurface discharge at the outlet of a small karst catchment. A classification of hydrograph responses based on the multi-scale smoothing Kernel -derived distance classifies the hydrograph responses on the basis of similarities between hillslope and depression sites, and those at the catchment outlet. Results demonstrate that the temporal and spatial variability of hydrograph hysteresis and similarity between hillslope flow and outlet stream flow can be explained by the local heterogeneity of depression aquifer. Large depression storage deficits emerging in the highly heterogeneous aquifer produce strong hysteresis and multiple relationships of upstream hydrographs relative to the outlet subsurface discharge. In contrast, when depression storage deficits are filled during consecutive rainfall events, depression hydrographs at the high permeability sites are almost synchronous or exhibit a monotonous function with the hydrographs at the outlet. This reduced hydrograph hysteresis enhances preferential flow paths in fractured rocks and conduits that can accelerate the hillslope flow to the outlet. Therefore, classification of hydrograph similarities between any upstream sites and the catchment outlet can help to identify the dominant hydrological functions in the heterogeneous karst catchment.     

Deformations related to a large (M=6.9) earthquake, the magma discharge, and eruptions in the Karymskii Volcanic Center in 1996–2005

A network of interconnected stations was established in the entire area of the Karymskii Volcanic Center and near the active Karymskii Volcano, Kamchatka in 1971–1988 for the purpose of studying ground deformation. Multiple observations by this network yielded quantitative characteristics of the ground deformation related to the following phenomena: the eruption of Karymskii Volcano during the periods 1976–1982 and January 1, 1996, to 2005 (still continuing, written in February 2008); the discharge of basalt on January 2, 1996, in the bottom of Lake Karymskii situated in the caldera of Akademii Nauk Volcano (this volcano had previously been thought to be extinct) and the subsequent phreatomagmatic eruption lasting approximately 24 hours; and the large (M 6.9) earthquake of January 1, 1996, occurring at 21 h 57 min local time in the Karymskii Volcanic Center at a depth of ～10 km. This paper discusses the relationships of ground deformation to volcanic activity and to the abovementioned unique natural occurrences, and their mechanism as deduced from geodetic data.     

Quasi-Static Strain and Stress Fields due to a Moment Tensor in Elastic–Viscoelastic Layered Half-Space

We derived explicit expressions in the time domain for 3-D quasi-static strain and stress fields, due to a point moment tensor source in an elastic surface layer overlying viscoelastic half-space under gravity. The expressions of strain in the elastic surface layer were directly obtained from the expressions of displacement in our previous paper. The conversion of strain into stress is easy, because the stress–strain relation of elastic material is linear. In the viscoelastic substratum, the expressions of strain were obtained by applying the correspondence principle of linear viscoelasticity to the associated elastic solution. The strain–stress conversion is not straightforward, as the stress–strain relation of viscoelastic material is usually given in a differential form. To convert strain into stress, we used an integral form of the stress–strain relation instead of the usual differential form. The expressions give the responses of elastic half-space at \( t = 0 \) , and the responses of an elastic plate floating on non-viscous liquid at \( t = \infty \) . The moment tensor is rationally decomposed into the three independent force systems, corresponding to isotropic expansion, shear faulting and crack opening, and so the expressions include the strain and stress fields for these force systems as special cases. As the first numerical example, we computed the temporal changes in strain and stress fields after the sudden opening of an infinitely long vertical crack cutting the elastic surface layer. Here, we observe that the stress changes caused by the sudden crack opening gradually decay with time and vanish at \( t = \infty \) everywhere. After the completion of stress relaxation, a characteristic pattern of shear strain remains in the viscoelastic substratum. Since the strain and stress fields at \( t = \infty \) can be read as the strain- and stress-rate fields caused by steady crack opening, respectively, this numerical example demonstrates the realization of a steady stress state supported by steady viscous flow in the asthenosphere, associated with steady seafloor spreading at mid-ocean ridges. For the second numerical example, we computed the temporal changes in strain and stress fields after the 2011 Tohoku-oki mega-thrust earthquake, which occurred at the North American-Pacific plate interface. In this numerical example, the stress changes caused by coseismic fault slip vanish at \( t = \infty \) in the viscoelastic substratum, but remain in the elastic surface layer. The coseismic stress changes (and also strain changes) in the elastic surface layer diffuse away from the source region with time, due to gradual stress relaxation in the viscoelastic substratum.     

Bayesian estimation of intensity–duration–frequency curves and of the return period associated to a given rainfall event

Intensity–duration–frequency (IDF) curves are used extensively in engineering to assess the return periods of rainfall events and often steer decisions in urban water structures such as sewers, pipes and retention basins. In the province of Québec, precipitation time series are often short, leading to a considerable uncertainty on the parameters of the probabilistic distributions describing rainfall intensity. In this paper, we apply Bayesian analysis to the estimation of IDF curves. The results show the extent of uncertainties in IDF curves and the ensuing risk of their misinterpretation. This uncertainty is even more problematic when IDF curves are used to estimate the return period of a given event. Indeed, standard methods provide overly large return period estimates, leading to a false sense of security. Comparison of the Bayesian and classical approaches is made using different prior assumptions for the return period and different estimation methods. A new prior distribution is also proposed based on subjective appraisal by witnesses of the extreme character of the event.     

Shales in the Qiongzhusi and Wufeng–Longmaxi Formations: a rock-physics model and analysis of the effective pore aspect ratio

The shales of the Qiongzhusi Formation and Wufeng–Longmaxi Formations at Sichuan Basin and surrounding areas are presently the most important stratigraphic horizons for shale gas exploration and development in China. However, the regional characteristics of the seismic elastic properties need to be better determined. The ultrasonic velocities of shale samples were measured under dry conditions and the relations between elastic properties and petrology were systemically analyzed. The results suggest that 1) the effective porosity is positively correlated with clay content but negatively correlated with brittle minerals, 2) the dry shale matrix consists of clays, quartz, feldspars, and carbonates, and 3) organic matter and pyrite are in the pore spaces, weakly coupled with the shale matrix. Thus, by assuming that all connected pores are only present in the clay minerals and using the Gassmann substitution method to calculate the elastic effect of organic matter and pyrite in the pores, a relatively simple rock-physics model was constructed by combining the self-consistent approximation (SCA), the differential effective medium (DEM), and Gassmann’s equation. In addition, the effective pore aspect ratio was adopted from the sample averages or estimated from the carbonate content. The proposed model was used to predict the P-wave velocities and generally matched the ultrasonic measurements very well.     

Seismogravitational oscillations and a change in the Earth’s rotation rate in a period range from 1 to 5 h in December 2004

The observations carried out using a seismogravimeter in St. Petersburg simultaneously with the variations of the Earth’s rotation rate determined based on the results of observations with radiotelescopes located at large distances from each other at the surface of the Earth are compared with each other. It is found that the simultaneous observations agree with each other in the daily variation dynamics. It is also found that the distribution of spectral components along the frequency axis in the spectra of these observations in a period range from 1 to 5 h corresponds to a long-known distribution of frequencies at which the Earth’s oscillations arise most often. It is also shown that the spectra in a period range from 1 to 5 h obtained in different years using the astronomical data, the superconducting gravimeter observations, and the seismogravimeter observations at points located at large distances from each other agree with each other very well. Individual oscillation components have comparable amplitudes and may not be of a tidal nature. An explanation that allows one to examine the entire body of obtained results from a unified perspective is proposed.     

An examination of the presence and topography of the D＇＇ discontinuity under the Russia–Kazakhstan border region using seismic waveform data from a deep earthquake in Spain

The D＇＇ layer,which is located atop the core–mantle boundary,has long been an area of focus for global seismology studies. A widely used approach to study the discontinuities in the D＇＇ layer involves the use of the SdS phases between the S and ScS phases,which requires that certain stringent conditions be satisfied with respect to an epicentral distance and earthquake depth. Therefore,this approach is only practical for investigating the presence and topography of velocity interfaces in certain local regions around the world. The Russia–Kazakhstan border region has been a ‘‘blind spot＇＇ with respect to this detection method. The seismic network deployed in the northeastern margin of the Tibetan Plateau has recorded relatively clear SdS phases for the MS6.3 earthquake that occurred in Spain on April 11,2010,allowing this blind spot to be studied. This paper compares the observed waveforms and synthetics and uses the travel times of the relevant phases to obtain a D＇＇ discontinuity depth between2,610 and 2,740 km in the examined area. This study provides the first results regarding the depth of the D＇＇ layer discontinuity for this region and represents an important addition to the global studies of the D＇＇ layer.     

Hertz Range Pulsations during Recovery Phase of the Magnetic Storm on September 7–8, 2017, and Relation between their Dynamics and Changes in the Parameters of the Interplanetary Medium

Geomagnetism and Aeronomy - The shape and dynamics of an unusual disturbance in the Pc1 geomagnetic pulsation range recorded by ground-based induction magnetometers during the morning hours...     

An examination of the presence and topography of the D″ discontinuity under the Russia–Kazakhstan border region using seismic waveform data from a deep earthquake in Spain

The D″ layer, which is located atop the core–mantle boundary, has long been an area of focus for global seismology studies. A widely used approach to study the discontinuities in the D″ layer involves the use of the SdS phases between the S and ScS phases, which requires that certain stringent conditions be satisfied with respect to an epicentral distance and earthquake depth. Therefore, this approach is only practical for investigating the presence and topography of velocity interfaces in certain local regions around the world. The Russia–Kazakhstan border region has been a “blind spot” with respect to this detection method. The seismic network deployed in the northeastern margin of the Tibetan Plateau has recorded relatively clear SdS phases for the M _S 6.3 earthquake that occurred in Spain on April 11, 2010, allowing this blind spot to be studied. This paper compares the observed waveforms and synthetics and uses the travel times of the relevant phases to obtain a D″ discontinuity depth between 2,610 and 2,740 km in the examined area. This study provides the first results regarding the depth of the D″ layer discontinuity for this region and represents an important addition to the global studies of the D″ layer.     

Observations of Pc 3–4 and Pi 2 geomagnetic pulsations in the low-latitude ionosphere

Day-time Pc 3–4 (≃5–60 mHz) and night-time Pi 2 (≃5–20 mHz) ULF waves propagating down through the ionosphere can cause oscillations in the Doppler shift of HF radio transmissions that are correlated with the magnetic pulsations recorded on the ground. In order to examine properties of these correlated signals, we conducted a joint HF Doppler/magnetometer experiment for two six-month intervals at a location near L = 1.8. The magnetic pulsations were best correlated with ionospheric oscillations from near the F region peak. The Doppler oscillations were in phase at two different altitudes, and their amplitude increased in proportion to the radio sounding frequency. The same results were obtained for the O- and X-mode radio signals. A surprising finding was a constant phase difference between the pulsations in the ionosphere and on the ground for all frequencies below the local field line resonance frequency, independent of season or local time. These observations have been compared with theoretical predictions of the amplitude and phase of ionospheric Doppler oscillations driven by downgoing Alfvén mode waves. Our results agree with these predictions at or very near the field line resonance frequency but not at other frequencies. We conclude that the majority of the observations, which are for pulsations below the resonant frequency, are associated with downgoing fast mode waves, and models of the wave-ionosphere interaction need to be modified accordingly.     

Geomagnetic activity as a possible cause of changes in the middle atmosphere and troposphere; observations made in Prague in the years 1932–1987

Summary A possible relation between the 10-day, 1-month, and 2-month geomagnetic as well as solar activity, characterized by Kp and Wolf's number R, and temperatures measured at the Prague-Klementinum meteorological station in January–February of the years 1932–1987 was sought. It was found that:1) Kp correlates with the temperature in Prague better than Wolf's number R.2) If the QBO phase is taken into account, the correlations improve.3) Even if the correlations improves with increasing length of the subintervals into which the individual winter periods (January-February) were derived, their statistical significance declines.     

Sporadic and recurrent geomagnetic disturbances in 1859–1860 according to the archived data from the Russian network of stations

Based on an analysis of the available archived data from the Russian network of geomagnetic stations, it has been indicated that the known event of August–September 1859 was the first and the greatest event in the series of the recurrent geomagnetic storms. Similar series were repeatedly observed in the next years. These series are caused by the processes on the Sun and in the heliosphere related to the superposition of the solar wind flows. The sporadic and regular components in joint activity of the complex, including active regions and coronal holes on the rotating Sun, play the role of the Bartels M regions responsible for initiation and development of geomagnetic storms. Neither coronal holes nor active regions can separately explain observations. During interpretation, active regions and coronal holes should be considered as a unified complex.     

Magma–ice–sediment interactions and the origin of lava/hyaloclastite sequences in the Síða formation, South Iceland

Products of subglacial volcanism can illuminate reconstructions of paleo-environmental conditions on both local and regional scales. Competing interpretations of Pleistocene conditions in south Iceland have been proposed based on an extensive sequence of repeating lava-and-hyaloclastite deposits in the Síða district. We propose here a new eruptive model and refine the glacial environment during eruption based on field research and analytical data for the Síða district lava/hyaloclastite units. Field observations from this and previous studies reveal a repeating sequence of cogenetic lava and hyaloclastite deposits extending many kilometers from their presumed eruptive source. Glasses from lava selvages and unaltered hyaloclastites have very low H₂O, S, and CO₂ concentrations, indicating significant degassing at or close to atmospheric pressure prior to quenching. We also present a scenario that demonstrates virtual co-emplacement of the two eruptive products. Our data and model results suggest repeated eruptions under thin ice or partially subaerial conditions, rather than eruption under a thick ice sheet or subglacial conditions as previously proposed.     

Multi-decadal changes in the relationships between rainfall characteristics and debris-flow occurrences in response to gully evolution after the 1990–1995 Mount Unzen eruptions

Explosive volcanic eruptions can cause long-term landscape change, leading to increased sediment discharge that continues after the cessation of the eruptions. During the period 1990–1995, eruptions of Mount Unzen, Japan, generated large amounts of pyroclastic material, resulting in 57 debris-flow events during 1991–2018. To investigate changes in the relationships between rainfall characteristics and debris-flow occurrence, we conducted the following: geometric analysis of two gullies (i.e., debris-flow initiation zones) using LiDAR (light detection and ranging)-generated 1 m DEMs (digital elevation models); rainfall analysis, based on the relationship between rainfall duration and mean intensity (i.e., considering the intensity–duration, or ID, threshold); and debris-flow monitoring during 2016–2018. Since 1991, rainfall runoff has caused erosion of the supplied pyroclastic material, generating a channel network consisting of incised gullies. With sufficient rainfall, debris flows formed, accompanied by further gully erosion; this resulted in both vertical and lateral adjustments of the cross-sectional geometry. In the two decades since the eruptions ceased, readily mobilized pyroclastic material has become scarce as the gullies have adjusted to local hydrographic conditions. At the same time, the infiltration capacity of the volcanic flank has increased, reducing the capacity for overland flow. As a result, since 2000, rainfall events with intensities above the ID threshold have occurred; however, the lack of sediment supplied by the gullies appears to have hindered the occurrence and development of debris flows. This suggests that debris flows in volcanically perturbed landscapes may occur at lower rainfall thresholds as long as the corresponding upland channels are evolving as a result of intense overland flow. However, as such channels evolve towards equilibrium geometries, the frequency of debris flows decreases in response to the reduction in sediment availability.