Extreme fractionation in felsic magma chambers: a product of liquid-state diffusion or fractional crystallization?

Extreme fractionation of minor and trace elements commonly accompanies very modest changes in major element concentrations in highly felsic igneous sequences. In such sequences, Si increases by only a few percent while, for example, Sr, Ba, Mg, and light rare earth elements decrease drastically, commonly by a factor of 10 or more. It has been argued, most notably by Hildreth (e.g. [1]), that such trends observed in tuffs were not induced by fractional crystallization (FC), but rather are a manifestation of compositional gradients in parental magma chambers which form via liquid-state thermogravitational diffusion (LSTD). The strongest arguments against FC are that (1) crystal settling is not a viable mechanism for crystal-liquid separation, and (2) extensive recrystallization is required to produce the observed trends, yet the tuffs are relatively crystal-poor. Many workers have noted trends in plutonic as well as volcanic rocks which are strikingly similar to those for which LSTD has been proposed, and some have concluded that LSTD was the fractionating mechanism.Several lines of evidence lead us to the conclusion that FC is the dominant differentiating process in high-silica magmas: (1) elemental trends are strikingly consistent with those predicted for FC; it would be a remarkable coincidence if diffusion-induced trends mimicked FC so closely; (2) large phenocryst assemblages in high-silica tuffs indicate low-variance liquid compositions that would be improbable if crystal-liquid equilibria were not controlling differentiation; (3) highly evolved plutonic rocks in many cases do not form the caps expected for LSTD, but rather occur in dikes and pods where they apparently segregated as late liquids; (4) recent experimental studies suggest that trends induced by diffusion differ drastically from observed felsic igneous trends.We do not believe that the principal arguments against FC in high-silica systems (unlikelihood of crystal settling; crystal-poor nature of tuffs) refute the reality of the chemical process, but rather emphasize the need for a better understanding of the physical mechanisms of crystal-liquid fractionation and eruption.     

Regional millennial trend in the cosmic ray induced ionization of the troposphere

Long-term trends in the tropospheric cosmic ray induced ionization on the multi-millennial time scale are studied using the newly released paleomagnetic reconstruction models. Spatial and temporal variations of the tropospheric ionization has been computed using the CRAC:CRII model and applying the paleomagnetic CALS7k.2 reconstruction. It has been shown that long-term variations of the tropospheric ionization are not spatially homogeneous, and they are defined not only by solar (i.e., covariant with solar irradiance) changes but also by the geomagnetic field. The dominance of the two effects is geographically separated, which makes it possible to distinguish between direct and indirect solar–terrestrial climate effects. Possible climate applications are considered.     

Influence of stratospheric ozone changes on long-term trends in the meso- and lower thermosphere

As predicted by model calculations, long-term changes in the stratospheric ozone content should influence trends in the meso- and thermosphere also. These predictions have been tested by means of ionospheric reflection height data in the low-frequency (LF) range and critical frequency data series of the ionospheric E layer, foE, observed at different stations around the world. It was shown that an essential part of the derived trends in the mesosphere and in the lower thermosphere is correlated with long-term changes of the atmospheric ozone content. During the sub-interval with the strongest ozone decrease (1979–1995) the detected ionospheric trends are most pronounced. Additionally was also demonstrated that the longitudinally dependent ozone trends are related to similar variations in the foE trends.     

GLOBAL SEA RISE: A REDETERMINATION

It is well established that sea level trends obtained from tide gauge records shorter than about 50-60 years are corrupted by interdecadal sea level variation. However, only a fraction (<25%) of even the long records exhibit globally consistent trends, because of vertical crustal movements. The coherent trends are from tide gauges not at collisional plate boundaries, and not located in or near areas deeply ice-covered during the last glaciation. Douglas (1991), using ICE-3G values for the postglacial (PGR) rebound correction, found 21 usable records (minimum length 60 years, average 76) in 9 oceanographic groups that gave a mean trend for global sea level rise of 1.8 mm/yr ± 0.1 for the period 1880–1980. In that analysis, a significant inconsistency of PGR-corrected U.S. east coast trends was noted, but not resolved. Now, even after eliminating those trends, more (24) long records (minimum 60 years, average 83) are available, including series in the southern hemisphere not previously used. The mean trend of 9 groups made up of the newly-selected records is also 1.8 mm/yr ± 0.1 for global sea level rise over the last 100+ years. A somewhat smaller set of longer records in 8 groups (minimum 70 years, average 91) gives 1.9 mm/yr ± 0.1 for the mean trend. These values are about an order of magnitude larger than the average over the last few millennia. The recent (in historical terms) dramatic increase in the rate of global sea level rise has not been explained, and no acceleration during the last century has been detected. This situation requires additional investigation and confirmation. VLBI/GPS/absolute gravity measurements of crustal motions can be employed to correct many long (60+ years) tide gauge records not now usable because of vertical crustal movements, improving the geographic coverage of sea level trends. Direct altimetric satellite determinations of global sea level rise from satellites such as TOPEX/POSEIDON and its successors can provide an independent estimate in possibly a decade or so, and thereby ascertain whether or not there has been any recent change in the rate of global sea level rise.     

Changes in runoff and sediment load from major Chinese rivers to the Pacific Ocean over the period 1955-2010

Changes in runoff and sediment loads to the Pacific Ocean from 10 major Chinese rivers are presented in this paper To quantitatively assess trends in runoff and sediment loads, a parameter called the ＂Trend Ratio T＂ has been defined in this paper. To summarize total runoff and sediment load from these rivers, data from 17 gauging stations for the duration 1955 to 2010 has been standardized, and the missing data have been interpolated by different approaches according to specific conditions. Over the observed 56-year study period, there is a quite stable change in total runoff. Results show that the mean annual runoff flux entering the Pacific Ocean from these rivers is approximately 1,425 billion cubic meters. It is found that all northern rivers within semi-arid and transitional zones including the Songhua, Liaohe, Haihe, Yellow and Huaihe rivers present declining trends in water discharge. Annual runoff in all southern rivers within humid zones including the Yangtze, Qiantang, Minjiang, Pearl and Lancang rivers does not change much, except for the Qiantang River whose annual runoff slightly increases. The annual sediment loads of all rivers show significant declining trends; the exceptions are the Songhua and Lancang rivers whose annual sediment loads have increasing trends. However, the mean annual sediment flux carried into the Pacific Ocean decreased from 2,026 million tonnes to 499 million tonnes over the 56-year period. During this time there were 4 distinct decreasing phases. The decrease in annual sediment flux is due to the integrated effects of human activity and climate change. The reduction in sediment flux makes it easy for reservoir operation; however, the decrease in sediment flux also creates problems, such as channel erosion, river bank collapse and the retreat of the delta area.     

Laboratory simulation of clast abrasion

Experimental abrasion of river‐bed materials has been widely undertaken, producing ‘downstream’ fining rates that generally are believed to be much less than those observed in the field. A conclusion commonly adopted has been that sorting processes are more effective than abrasion processes. A comparative evaluation of results from an abrasion tank and a tumbling barrel are presented, which show that abrasion patterns and rates differ according to the equipment used, clast size and shape, the clast charge (barrel) and water velocity and bed material (tank). Abrasion is a composite process, and the effects achieved appear to be dominated by percussion in the tank and grinding in the barrel. Breakage, crushing and sandblasting are not modelled effectively, nor are effects achieved on clasts when they form part of the bed. Comparisons are made with other equipment used, the very limited amount of direct field abrasion monitoring, and with the probable suite of processes that may occur under field conditions. Also reviewed are the problems that arise when laboratory weight‐loss abrasion coefficients are used or converted into ones of size diminution, as usually derived from field observations of down‐channel trends. It is concluded that field abrasion rates generally have been underestimated, as the processes involved are at best only selectively represented by the experimental equipment so far used, and because the results obtained experimentally are capable of misinterpretation when related to field trends. Copyright © 2002 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

青岛市数字遥测地震台网概况

青岛市数字遥测台网是地方地震台网。台网2003年建成伊始，即经受了2003年6月发生在青岛市崂山区王哥庄境内的4级震群，为政府和社会公众快速了解震情、震情趋势判定、政府应急决策、稳定社会起到了重要作用，发挥了巨大的经济、社会效益，为科学研究积累了丰富的资料。本文从台网概况、台网设计和建设、台网运行和管理、地震监控能力、监测效能等方面介绍了该台网。     

Sensitivity of secular trends in precipitation data to observational errors

There has been considerable interest in estimating secular trends in precipitation data in various regions of the world. It is therefore important to ascertain the manner in which errors of observation affect estimated trends. For this purpose we have compared trends at 1219 stations in the contiguous United States for two data sets: (a) original observations, also called raw observations, and (b) the observations, adjusted to compensate for suspected errors. The adjustments were made at the National Climate Data Center, Asheville (Quinlan et al., 1987;karl andWilliams, 1987), In order to focus on the effects of observational errors we attempted to avoid the effects of filling of missing data by limiting the analysis to the period 1940–1984 for which the number of missing values is much smaller than earlier periods. A least-square linear regression was performed on the raw and adjusted data for each station and the slopes of the fitted lines were compared. The comparison was made for monthly, seasonal and annual precipitation values.The results for annual precipitation showed that 23 percent of the stations have trends of opposite signs in the raw and adjusted data. The trends were identical in annual data at only 11 percent of the stations. When monthly data are combined to form seasonal and annual averages the magnitude of the difference between the slopes of the adjusted and the raw observations generally increases, indicating that the errors in the individual monthly observations are correlated. When the station data were averaged to obtain state-wide averages, the effects of the errors became less pronounced in most of the states. These results indicate that obtaining trends in precipitation from station data is a more difficult problem than has been realized.     

宁夏灵武地震序列的分数维特征

本文从分数维几何学的观点出发,采用标度变换法分别计算了1984年至1988年6月宁夏灵武地区中强地震序列的时间分布分数维,结果表明,1988年1月4日灵武5.5级地震后,中小地震序列的分数维显著增高(D=0.44)。文中还结合本区断裂构造特点和地震活动性分析,初步探讨了灵武及其周围地区的地震趋势。     

The global distribution of long-term total ozone variations during the period 1957–1975

Total ozone observations in the international network have been used as a basis for the analysis of the mean monthly ozone distribution over the globe for the period 1957–75. It has been found that during the period 1961–70 the total ozone amount increased in the Northern Hemisphere by about 12 percent and that this increase seems to be significant at all latitudes. Although the data were sparse for the Southern Hemisphere, there did not appear to be any significant ozone changes during the 10 year period. Relatively large geographic variations were found in the ozone trends and it is suggested that these variations are related to large scale changes in the atmospheric circular pattern.     

Comparison of <Emphasis Type="Italic">foF2</Emphasis> values in the daytime and after sunset

The ratio of the values of the F ₂, layer critical frequencies 2 h after the sunset and at 1400 LT has been considered. It is assumed that this ratio is a good indicator of the intensity of wind processes in the thermosphere. For 18 ionospheric stations, the dependences of this ratio on the F _wl, solar activity index have been constructed for the period before 1980. It has been found that the standard deviation (S), from this dependence has been increased after 1980 at all stations. An increase in S, is interpreted as an indication of the existence of long-term trends in th e wind regime after approximately 1980.     

The spatial and temporal analysis of dry spells in the Yellow River basin, China

In this research, drought in Yellow River basin has been studied by using dry spells. Three indices, including the maximum length (MxDS), mean length (MDS) and number of dry spells (NDS), and five periods (annual, winter, spring, summer and autumn) are considered. The results show that a south to north gradient for mean MxDS and MDS has been dominantly found in all periods except summer, in which a southwest and southeast to north gradient exists. Mean NDS shows an opposite distribution to that of mean MxDS and MDS. It is surely that the northern part of Yellow River basin, with a higher MxDS and MDS and lower NDS, is much drier than southern part in a regional scale. According to temporal analysis by using the Mann–Kendall trend method, MxDS of most stations show negative but insignificant trends during annual and winter, while the majority of stations show positive trends during spring, summer and autumn. Trends of MDS and NDS dominantly depict positive and negative for most periods, respectively. By comparing the frequency of dry spells during the ENSO events, it can be found that the frequency of intermediate and long dry spells is almost tantamount during the occurrence periods of El Niño and La Niña.     

Sea level extremes in Marseille (NW Mediterranean) during 1885–2008

Sea level extremes and their temporal variability have been explored based on the hourly measurements at Marseille tide gauge for the period 1885–2008. A careful quality check has first been applied to the observations to ensure consistency of the record by eliminating outliers and datum shifts. Yearly percentiles have been used to investigate long-term trends of extremes revealing that secular variations in extremes are linked to mean sea level changes. The associated decadal changes show discrepancies between mean sea level trend and extreme fluctuations, due to the influence of the atmospheric forcing. A local regression model based on the generalized Pareto distribution has been applied to derive trends in return levels. The 50-years return levels reach values between 80 and 120 cm. The most significant changes in return levels are characterized by an increase since the 1970s.     

Temporal trends in dioxins (polychlorinated dibenzo-p-dioxin and dibenzofurans) and dioxin-like polychlorinated biphenyls in Baltic herring (Clupea harengus)

Polychlorinated dibenzo-p-dioxins and dibenzofurans (PCDD/Fs) and dioxin-like polychlorinated biphenyl (dl-PCBs) concentrations in Baltic herring (Clupea harengus) have been relatively stable since the mid to late 1990s. It is unclear why concentrations in Baltic herring are not following the observed decreases in other environmental matrices. Here, changes in long-term temporal trends in Baltic herring were examined. A number of biological variables were examined alongside the temporal trends to investigate whether fish biology e.g., growth (length, weight, age), lipid content, reproductive phase or fishing date may provide an explanation for the temporal trends observed.     

Identification of trends in Malaysian monthly runoff under the scaling hypothesis

Abstract

Statistical tests have been widely used for several decades to identify and test the significance of trends in runoff and other hydrological data. The Mann-Kendall (M-K) trend test is commonly used in trend analysis. The M-K test was originally proposed for random data. Several variations of the M-K test, as well as pre-processing of data for use with it, have been developed and used. The M-K test under the scaling hypothesis has been developed recently. The basic objective of the research presented in this paper is to investigate the trends in Malaysian monthly runoff data. Identification of trends in runoff data is useful for planning water resources projects. Existence of statistically significant trends would also lead to identification of possible effects of climate change. Monthly runoff data for Malaysian rivers from the past three decades are analysed, in both five-year segments and entire data sequences. The five-year segments are analysed to investigate the variability in trends from one segment to another in three steps: (1) the M-K tests are conducted under random and correlation assumptions; (2) the Hurst scaling parameter is estimated and tested for significance; and (3) the M-K test under the scaling hypothesis is conducted. Thus the tests cover both correlation and scaling. The results show that the number of significant segments in Malaysian runoff data would be the same as those found under the assumption that the river flow sequences are random. The results are also the same for entire sequences. Thus, monthly Malaysian runoff data do not have statistically significant trends. Hence there are no indications of climate change in Malaysian runoff data.

Citation Rao, A. R., Azli, M. & Pae, L. J. (2011) Identification of trends in Malaysian monthly runoff under the scaling hypothesis. Hydrol. Sci. J. 56(6), 917–929.     

PCBs in fish from the southern Baltic Sea: levels, bioaccumulation features, and temporal trends during the period from 1997 to 2006

Levels of seven marker polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs) have been determined in five species of Baltic fish collected during 1997-2006. Downward time trends in the concentrations of heavier congeners of PCBs in different Baltic fish, with the exception of cod, have been observed between 1997 and 2001. In case of sprat and herring samples, the statistical significance of the time trends of the PCBs: 101, 118, 153, 138 and 180 concentrations has been proved. Species-specific bioaccumulation of PCBs has been indicated, and the lowest and highest levels of PCBs (expressed on the basis of lipid weight) have been observed in sprat and salmon samples, respectively. PCB profiles have been found to be similar in all the fish species tested. Sampling location has not been a crucial factor for the observed levels of various PCBs. In some fish species, PCB concentrations are negatively correlated with the fat content but have no relation with the fish length.     

Trends in the timing and magnitude of floods in Canada

This study investigates trends in the timing and magnitude of seasonal maximum flood events across Canada. A new methodology for analyzing trends in the timing of flood events is developed that takes into account the directional character and multi-modality of flood occurrences. The methodology transforms the directional series of flood occurrences into new series by defining a new location of the origin. A test of flood seasonality (multi-modality) is then applied to identify dominant flood seasons. Floods from the dominant seasons are analyzed separately by a seasonal trend analysis. The Mann–Kendall test in conjunction with the method of pre-whitening is used in the trend analysis. Over 160 streamflow records from one common observation period are analyzed in watersheds with relatively pristine and stable land-use conditions. The results show weak signals of climate variability and/or change present in the timing of floods in Canada during the last three decades. Most of the significant trends in the timing of spring snowmelt floods are negative trends (earlier flood occurrence) found in the southern part of Canada. There are no significant trends identified in the timing of fall rainfall floods. However, the significance of the fall, rainfall-dominated flood season has been increasing in several analyzed watersheds. This may indicate increasing intensity of rainfall events during the recent years. Trends in the magnitude of floods are more pronounced than the trends in the timing of floods. Almost one fifth of all the analyzed stations show significant trends in the magnitude of snowmelt floods. Most of the significant trends are negative trends, suggesting decreasing magnitudes of snowmelt floods in Canada over the last three decades. Significant negative trends are found particularly in southern Ontario, northern Saskatchewan, Alberta and British Columbia. There are no significant trends in the magnitude of rainfall floods found in the analyzed streamflow records. The results support the outcomes of previous streamflow trend studies conducted in Canada.     

Behavior of parameters of the ionospheric F2 layer at the turn of the Centuries: 1. critical frequency

The available massifs of experimental data on the critical frequency of the ionospheric F2 layer, foF2, covering the first decade of the new century, are considered. On the basis of studying these massifs, a conclusion is drawn that the scatter of foF2 values (measured by the standard deviation (SD)) relative to the dependence on solar activity has grown substantially over recent decades as compared to the period 1958–1979. The possible causes of the SD increase are considered. It is shown that the foF2 values for the period 1998–2010 decreased as compared to the period 1958–1979 by an average of 0.6 MHz which gives an estimate of the foF2 trend of ～-0.03 MHz per year. Linear trends in foF2 for some ionospheric stations are analyzed. It is obtained that, in spite of the scatter in the data, it is possible to obtain statistically significant trends for each considered situation (day and postsunset period in summer and winter). At the same time, the winter negative trends (～-0.052 MHz per year) are approximately a factor of 2 higher than the summer ones (～-0.024 MHz per year). Comparisons with the trends obtained for earlier periods show that the negative trend in foF2 increased substantially towards the first decade of our century.     

Significance of secular trends of mass variations determined from GRACE solutions

Since 2002 the Earth’s gravity field is globally observed by the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) satellite mission. The GRACE monthly gravity field solutions, available from several analysis centres, reflect mass variations in the atmosphere, hydrosphere and geosphere. Due to correlated noise contained in these solutions, it is, however, first necessary to apply an appropriate filtering technique. The resulting, smoothed time series are applied not only to determine variations with different periodic signatures (e.g., seasonal, short and medium-term), but to derive long-periodic mass variations and secular trends as well. As the GRACE monthly solutions always show the integral effect of all mass variations, for separation of single processes, like the GIA (Glacial isostatic adjustment)-related mass increase in Fennoscandia, appropriate reduction models (e.g. from hydrology) are necessary.In this study we show for the example of the Fennoscandian uplift area that GRACE solutions from different analysis centres yield considerably different secular trends. Furthermore, it turns out that the inevitable filtering of the monthly gravity field models affects not only the amplitudes of the signals, but also their spatial resolution and distribution such as the spatial form of the detected signals. It also becomes evident that the determination of trends has to be performed together with the determination of periodic components. All periodic terms which are really contained in the data, and only such, have to be included. The restricted time span of the available GRACE measurements, however, limits the separation of long-periodic and secular signals. It is shown that varying the analysis time span affects the results considerably. Finally, a reduction of hydrological signals from the detected integral secular trends using global hydrological models (WGHM, LaDWorld, GLDAS) is attempted. The differences among the trends resulting from different models illustrate that the state-of-the-art hydrology models are not suitable for this purpose as yet. Consequently, taking the GRACE monthly gravity field solutions from one centre, choosing a single filter and applying an insufficiently reliable reduction model leads sometimes to a misinterpretation of considered geophysical processes. Therefore, one has to be cautious with the final interpretation of the results.     

Relationships between tectonic and geomorphological linear features in the Guadix-Baza basin,southern Spain

Linear elements of the landscape of the Guadix-Baza basin, southern Spain, were identified from a Landsat TM image. Three important lineament trends have been identified in the Guadix-Baza basin. The first is NE–SW, which is the dominant trend in the basin; the second is NW–SE, and the third is ENE–WSW. These three trends are correlated to the major faults of the Guadix-Baza basin. The study of linear features by the analysis of satellite data has revealed a strong link between the buried tectonic structures and the morphological features appearing at the surface. The distribution and density of lineaments explains much of the morphology of the land surface. It is possible to reconstruct elements of the tectonic and denudational history of the region and show that during Quaternary times lineaments controlled the sedimentation of the basin and the drainage pattern. Copyright © 1999 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.