大汶河流域中上游地区岩溶地下水水化学特征及其控制因素分析

为查明大汶河流域中上游地区岩溶地下水水化学特征和离子来源, 基于2018年枯、丰两期采集的岩溶地下水样品水化学数据, 综合运用数理统计、相关性分析、Piper图、Gibbs图以及离子比值等方法, 对大汶河流域中上游地区岩溶地下水水化学特征及其控制因素进行了分析。结果表明,大汶河流域中上游地区枯、丰水期岩溶地下水的pH均值分别为7.6和7.5, 整体表现为弱碱性。岩溶地下水中Ca2+为占优势的阳离子, HCO₃-和SO₄2-为主要阴离子。枯、丰期岩溶地下水中ρ(TDS)均值分别为645.4, 648.4 mg/L。按照TDS划分, 大汶河流域中上游地区岩溶地下水均属于淡水或微咸水;枯、丰水期岩溶地下水水化学类型均以HCO₃·SO₄-Ca为主。岩石风化作用是控制区内岩溶地下水水化学特征的主要控制因素, 碳酸盐岩和硅酸盐岩矿物的溶解是地下水主要离子的重要来源。同时, 大汶河流域中上游地区岩溶地下水还受到了比较明显的人为输入影响, 地下水中NO₃-主要来自于农业生产活动。该研究成果为水资源利用提供了指导作用。      

Environmental evolution of Gongwang Mountains during Holocene in northeastern Yunnan, China

This paper presents the study on two continuous glacio-lacustrine sedimentary deposits, Laotanfang (3 597 m) and Shibantang (3 689 m) located on the southern and northern sides of Hulifang peak in Yunan, China. Environmental change indexes are constructed for each deposit, based on grain size, geochemical and pollen analysis, environmental magnetic susceptibility, and 14C dating. The study of climatic environmental change since the Holocene epoch in this region shows that the climate fluctuated at different stages during the early Holocene, that is, the climate was cool and wet during 8 4-7 7 ka, cold and wet during 7 7-6 5 ka, cold and dry during 6 5-4 7 ka, cool and wet during 4 7-2 1 ka, warm and wet during 2 1-1 0 ka, and warmer and wet since 1 ka. These findings reflect the overlapping influences of the southwest and southeast monsoons in different times during the Holocene in the north part of southwestern China are in accord with other Holocene climate change models in this part of China.     

气候变化情景下淮河上游流域氮排放预测研究

淮河流域是水体遭受营养盐污染较严重的地区,本研究选择淮河上游的淮滨流域（淮滨站以上,流域面积1.6万km²）为研究对象,首先构建了淮滨流域SWAT水文水质模型,然后利用2011—2017年淮滨站实测的月径流和月氨氮浓度对SWAT模型进行了校正与验证,最后基于全球气候模型（GCM）气象数据,预测了未来30年（2020—2029年、2030—2039年、2040—2049年）不同气候变化情境（RCP2.6、RCP4.5、RCP6.0、RCP8.5）下的径流、氨氮浓度和非点源总氮负荷。结果发现,径流在校正期和验证期的Nash-Suttcliffe系数均为0.79,氨氮在校正期和验证期的Nash-Suttcliffe系数均高于0.5,表明模型的适用性良好。研究发现本研究区施肥量与土地利用类型是非点源氮负荷空间分异的主导因素。2020—2049年,不同气候变化情景下,本研究区的降水量和气温均为增长趋势。假如保持基准期（2011—2016年）污染排放强度,仅考虑气候变化影响,流域内非点源污染总氮负荷将比基准期最多增加31.8%,流域出水口淮滨站的年均氨氮浓度将最多减小42.6%。本研究可以为气候变化下淮滨流域的水文水质管理提供科学支撑。     

Paleoclimate study of mountain ecosystems by multiple group biological analysis

Methodological problems of climatic reconstruction for different periods of Holocene are discussed on the basis of a multiple group biological analysis on peat-sapropel sediments.The possibility of biological analysis is exemplified by the paleoclimatic reconstruction for Carpathian and Altai Mountain ranges.For the "Skolevsky Beskidy" national park of Carpaty the paleoclimatic scenarios have been drown up aiming at the more precise definition of climatic conditions for the period of mass mountain slope terracing.The stability of terrace systems of various designs in the current climatic conditions has been assessed.It is shown that during periods of humid climate the terraces,whose designs have been focused on drainage,were built.In periods of dry and warm climate the terrace systems capable of accumulating water were built.Both these types of terrace systems are destroyed in nowadays.Only those terrace systems are stable which were adjusted by their builders to contrast variations of precipitation.For Western Altais the paleoclimatic scenario has been done to forecast the safety of the Bronze Age kurgans(burial earth mounds) with permafrost inside the construction.In the Altay region during the Holocene it has revealed two periods of sharp cooling,the peaks of which occurred in the intervals 4500-4300 and 2500-2300 years ago,and two periods of pronounced climatic drying 4900-4700 and 130-70 years ago.Depletion of the algae composition in the layer corresponding to the last period of drying climate indicates a very sharp change in the parameters of moisture and turning the lake into a dry swamp.Periods of cold weather may have contributed to the formation of special ritual traditions of the Sakan tribes that require the frozen ground to bury the dead.The later climate fluctuations identified have not affected the safety of permafrost in burial mounds constructed in the V-III cc BC.     

青海湖流域植被盖度时空变化研究

高寒区植被变化一直是气候和生态学领域关注的热点问题。本研究基于MODIS NDVI数据计算的植被覆盖度数据和高分辨率气象数据,分析了青海湖流域2001-2017年植被覆盖度分布格局及动态变化,探讨了其对气候变化、人类活动和冻土退化的响应。结果表明：① 近十几年青海湖流域植被覆盖度整体表现为增加趋势,不同植被类型增幅存在差异性,草地增幅最大,达到6.1%/10a,其它植被类型增幅在2%~3%/10a之间;② 流域局部地区仍存在植被退化现象,研究期植被退化面积表现为先增加后减小的变化趋势。2006-2011年重度退化区集中在青海湖东岸,2011-2017年重度退化区集中在流域的西北部,这些区域是青海湖流域荒漠分布区,植被覆盖度较低,是今后生态恢复需重点关注的区域;③ 气候变化是流域植被覆盖度变化的主导因素,气候变化对青海湖流域主要植被类型覆盖度变化的贡献率为84.21%,对草原、草甸和灌丛植被覆盖度变化的贡献率分别为81.84%、87.47%和75.96%;④ 人类活动对流域主要植被类型覆盖度变化的贡献率为15.79%,对草原、草甸和灌丛植被覆盖度变化的贡献率分别为18.16%、12.53%和24.04%,环青海湖地区人类活动对植被恢复有促进效应,在青海湖流域北部部分地区人类活动的破坏力度仍大于建设力度;⑤ 冻土退化对青海湖流域草甸和灌丛植被覆盖度变化影响很小,主要影响草原植被覆盖度变化,冻土退化造成草原植被覆盖度增长速率减小了1.2%/10a。     

利用GRACE/GRACE-FO重力卫星探测黄河流域水储量能力及极端气候发生的可能性

基于2004~2021年GRACE/GRACE-FO重力卫星数据反演黄河流域陆地水储量时空变化,并构建干旱指数模型和洪水因子模型,对黄河流域的极端气候现象进行分析研究。结果表明,2004~2021年黄河流域的陆地水储量以0.56 cm/a的速度减少,具有明显的季节周期性特征,在夏季和秋季呈盈余状态,春季和冬季呈亏损状态;干旱指数模型监测到期间黄河流域发生极度干旱事件22次、重度干旱事件37次,干旱事件范围涵盖整个黄河流域;洪水因子模型探测到黄河流域共发生洪水事件118次,多出现在夏季和秋季雨水较为丰沛的时候,期间黄河流域陆地水储量能力较弱,降雨量增大。利用GRACE/GRACE-FO重力卫星数据构建的干旱指数模型和洪水因子模型探测的气象结果与实际观测结果较为符合,能真实反映黄河流域发生的极端气候,可为极端气候研究提供有利工具。     

Changes of temperature and precipitation extremes in Hengduan Mountains, Qinghai-Tibet Plateau in 1961–2008

Variations and trends in extreme climate events are more sensitive to climate change than the mean values,and so have received much attention.In this study,twelve indices of temperature extremes and 11 indices of precipitation extremes at 32 meteorological stations in Hengduan Mountains were examined for the period 1961-2008.The results reveal statistically significant increases in the temperature of the warmest and coldest nights and in the frequencies of extreme warm days and nights.Decreases of the diurnal temperature range and the numbers of frost days and ice days are statistically significant.Regional averages of growing season length also display the trends consistent and significant with warming.At a large proportion of the stations,patterns of temperature extremes are consistent with warming since 1961:warming trends in minimum temperature indices are greater than those relating to maximum temperature.As the center of the Shaluli Mountain,the warming magnitudes decrease from inner to outer.Changes in precipitation extremes is low:trends are difficult to detect against the larger inter-annual and decadal-scale variability of precipitation,and only the wet day precipitation and the regional trend in consecutive dry days are significant at the 0.05 level.It can be concluded that the variation of extreme precipitation events is not obvious in the Hengduan Mountains,however,the regional trends generally decrease from the south to the north.Overall,the spatial distribution of temporal changes of all extreme climate indices in the Hengduan Mountains illustrated here reflects the climatic complexity in mountainous regions.     

未来RCP4.5情景下非洲地区主要气候要素时空演变特征

气候变化影响及其适应受到广泛关注。大量研究表明,受气候变化影响所造成的增温和降水减少已影响到非洲地区的农业生产和环境。本文利用HadGEM2区域气候模式输出的RCP4.5情景数据,基于时间序列分析及空间分析方法,对非洲大陆2010-2099年主要关键气候要素时空演变特征进行了预估,探讨了非洲大陆未来90年包括降水、辐射、平均气温、最高气温、最低气温等主要气候要素的时空变化格局。结果表明：各气候要素在不同时段的变化均表现出明显的地域分异差异： ① 相较于1970-1999年基准时段,未来3个时段(2020s、2050s、2080s)降水均增加,在2080s增至峰值,增加地区集中在20 °N附近的尼日尔、乍得、利比亚等国;最高增幅达4.5%;② 辐射增加区域分布在赤道地区和非洲大陆的南北两端,尤其是高海拔地区,如撒哈拉沙漠以北的阿特拉斯山脉附近,加丹加高原等地,最大增幅达0.04%;③ 未来90年非洲地区气温增加明显,包括平均气温、最高气温、最低气温,气温增幅由2020s、2050s、2080s依次递增,到2080s达到最大值,平均气温、最高气温、最低气温的最大增幅分别达到5、4.3和5.1 ℃。总体上,未来90年非洲大陆的气温较1970-1999年基准时段明显增多,但靠近海域的沿海地区增温较小,这是由于受到近海寒流的影响,起到了降温的作用。气温增幅过高也将不利于未来农业生产和地区安全。     

A comprehensive evaluation of tourism climate suitability in Qinghai Province, China

Qinghai Province is an important component of the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau in China. Scientific evaluation of the suitability of Qinghai’s climate for tourism can contribute to overcoming obstacles posed by climate on sustainable tourism development in Qinghai Province, including disparities between the low and high seasons, high altitude health concerns, and weather events. A tourism climate suitability evaluation model of the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau is constructed (Tourism Climate Suitability Index, or TCSI), and tourism climate suitability is comprehensively evaluated for Qinghai Province from climate data from 1960 to 2009. Results show that: (I) There is clear distributional characteristics of spatial-temporal variability of TCSI values in Qinghai Province. (II) Tourism climate suitability in Qinghai Province has significant seasonal and regional differences. The year is divided into a very suitable period (July and August), suitable tourism periods (from April and October), less suitable periods (From Nov to Mar). June to August is the most suitable tourism period in Qinghai. Qinghai Province is divided into five levels of tourism climate suitability: most suitable regions, very suitable regions, suitable regions, less suitable regions, and unsuitable region. (III) The key factor which influences regional differences in tourism climatic suitability is atmospheric oxygen. And the key factors which chiefly influence seasonal differences of tourism climate suitability are temperature and humidity, the wind chill factor, and barrier weather.     

基于流域盆地面积的郑洛地区史前聚落遗址分析

本文以郑洛地区为研究区域,以裴李岗文化时期、仰韶文化前期、仰韶文化后期和龙山文化时期为时间序列,对研究区域的流域盆地面积与相应的遗址点数量的关系、流域盆地面积与相应的遗址点增长速率的关系,以及各个流域盆地中遗址点分布密度的时空分布特征进行了研究。结果显示：（1）通过相关方法分析,以数字化的形式表明了流域盆地面积与分布的遗址点数量呈显著的正相关关系,且裴李岗文化时期的相关程度与其他3个文化时期相比较小;（2）对各流域盆地内遗址点的变化趋势分析发现,流域盆地面积与分布的遗址点变化趋势呈显著的正相关关系,这也解释了流域盆地黄河流域（B）、伊洛河流域（C）的变化趋势最快的缘由;（3）对各流域盆地内遗址点的分布密度进行分级可发现,在裴李岗文化时期,东部地区遗址点的分布密度大于西部地区,而其他3个文化时期是中西部地区大于东部地区。     

Boundary shift of potential suitable agricultural area in farming-grazing transitional zone in Northeastern China under background of climate change during 20th century

Climate change affected the agricultural expansion and the formation of farming-grazing transitional patterns during historical periods. This study analyzed the possible range of the boundary shift of the potential suitable agriculture area in the farming-grazing transitional zone in the northeastern China during the 20th century. Based on modem weather data, 1 km-resolution land cover data, historical climatic time series, and estimation by using similar historical climatic scenes, the following was concluded： 1） The climate conditions of suitable agriculture areas in the farming-grazing transitional zone in the northeastern China between 1971 and 2000 required an average annual temperature above 1℃ or ≥ 0℃ accumulated temperature above 2500℃-2700℃, and annual precipitation above 350 mm. 2） The northern boundary of the potential suitable agriculture area during the relatively warmer period of 1890-1910 was approximately located at the position of the 1961-2000 area. The northern boundary shifted back to the south by 75 km on average during the colder period of the earlier 20th century, whereas during the modem warm period of the 1990s, the area shifted north by 100 km on average. 3） The western and eastern boundaries of the suitable agricul~re area during the heaviest drought periods between 1920s and 1930s had shifted northeast by 250 km and 125 km, respectively, contrasting to the boundaries of 1951-2008. For the wettest period, that is, the 1890s to the 1910s, the shift of western and eastern boundaries was to the southwest by 125 km and 200 km, respectively, compared with that in the 1951-2008 period. This study serves as a reference for identifying a climatically sensitive area and planning future land use and agricultural production in the study area.     

末次间冰期-末次冰期柴达木盆地东部气候演化形式

柴达木盆地第四系富含介形类化石，介形类生物组合可以反映古气候变化。以盆地东部达参1井中的两种主要介形类(Ilyocypris inermis和Cyprideis torasa)的丰度特征为气候指标，对末次间冰期和末次冰期的盆地气候演变形式进行了恢复。认为柴达木盆地东部末次间冰期和末次冰期的气候演化既有着和全球同步的特点，也有着本区域独自的特征。介形类丰度曲线表明：末次间冰期(MIS5)，以Cyprideis torasa为主，整体上为暖型气候，依据介形类特征，又可分为5e，5c．5a三个暖期和5d．5b两个冷期，暖期到冷期都以介形类丰度的大幅突降为特征；末次冰期(MIS4-2)以Ilyocypris inermis为主，整体为冷型气候。其中，早冰阶(MIS4)两种介形类丰度都较低．而间冰阶(MIS3)介形类丰度明显增高，并可划分为3c．3a两个暖期和3b一个冷期。在间冰阶结束之后，介形类大量消失，llyocypris inermis完全灭绝，石盐大范围析出．盆地进入了末次冰期盛冰阶(MIS2)。     

地下水化学组成的时空聚类分析与多级嵌套水流系统识别

水文地球化学是识别地下水流系统的重要方法,然而区域尺度上多级嵌套地下水流系统的复杂性使地下水化学组成的分析和解释难度增加。以鄂尔多斯北部盆地湖泊集中区典型的胡同察汗淖地下水流系统为例,基于丰水期和枯水期3个期次不同深度地下水样品的物理化学数据,应用时空聚类与主成分分析方法,揭示地下水化学组成的空间分布特征、变化规律及其作用机制,分析水化学时空聚类结果对多级嵌套地下水流系统划分的可行性。该聚类结果将地下水样品分为3类,其中C1为以Na-HCO₃型为主的深层地下水,具有偏负的氢氧同位素组成（δD < -70‰,δ18O < -9‰）和极低浓度的NO₃-;C2为Ca-HCO₃为主的浅层地下水,具有偏正的氢氧同位素组成（δD > -70‰,δ18O > -9‰）和高浓度的NO₃-;而C3呈无优势阳离子、δD和δ18O变化范围大且显著线性相关等深、浅地下水混合特征。呈南北条带分布在苏贝淖-胡同察汗淖排泄区的C2和部分C3水化学组成有一定的季节变化。研究验证了研究区受地形和湖泊排泄控制的浅层局部和深层区域地下水流系统的空间分布,识别了苏贝淖-胡同察汗淖排泄区受浅循环和深循环共同影响的强烈作用带,证明了水化学时空聚类方法识别多级嵌套地下水流系统的可行性。      

Trend in Observed and Projected Maximum and Minimum Temperature over N-W Himalayan Basin

Recently, study in past trends of climate variables gained significant consideration because of its contribution in adaptions and mitigation strategies for potential future changes in climate, primarily in the area of water resource management. Future interannual and inter-seasonal variations in maximum and minimum temperature may bring significant changes in hydrological systems and affect regional water resources. The present study has been performed to observe past(1970-2010) as well as future(2011-2100)spatial and temporal variability in temperature(maximum and minimum) over selected stations of Sutlej basin located in North-Western Himalayan region in India. The generation of future time series of temperature data at different stations is done using statistical downscaling technique. The nonparametric test methods, modified Mann-Kendall test and Cumulative Sum chart are used for detecting monotonic trend and sequential shift in time series of maximum and minimum temperature. Sen’s slope estimator test is used to detect the magnitude of change over a period of time on annual and seasonal basis. The cooling experienced in annual TMax and TMin at Kasol in past(1970-2010) would be replaced by warming in future as increasing trends are detected in TMax during 2020 s and 2050 s and in TMin during 2020 s, 2050 s and 2080 s under A1 B and A2 scenarios. Similar results of warming are also predicted at Sunnifor annual TMin in future under both scenarios which witnessed cooling during 1970-2010. The rise in TMin at Rampur is predicted to be continued in future as increasing trends are obtained under both the scenarios. Seasonal trend analysis reveals large variability in trends of TMax and TMin over these stations for the future periods.     

THE QUATERNARY CLIMO-ENVIRONMENT CHANGES IN CHAIWQPU BASIN OF XINJIANG REGION

This paper describes the paleoclimatic changesoccurring in the Chaiwopu Basin since 730,000 yr.B.P., together with theformation and evolution of Chaiwopu Lake based on the chronology and characteristics of a core drilled in the basin. Analysis of the drilling core provides information on the climate and environment of the area. It would appear that the paleoclimatic changes that occurred in the basin during the Pleistocene was controlled by the relationship between the sun and the earth and by Long-term (10,000 yr.) climatic cycles. The climate tended to cold-dry during the glacial period (ice age) and warm-moist during the interglacial. Following the warm period of the Holocene, short-term (1,000 yr.) climatic cycles occurred in cool-moist periods, similar to the "Little Ice Age", alternated with warm-dry periods.     

Multi-Time Scale Analysis of Runoff at the Yangtze Estuary Based on the Morlet Wavelet Transform Method

Runoff series of the Yangtze River presents an intricate variation tendency under the reinforced influence of human activities.The Morlet Wavelet Transform method has been applied to analyze the annual runoff data from 1950 to 2011 at the Yangtze River Estuary.It can clearly reveal the multi-time scales structure,break point,change and distribution of periodic variation in the different time scales of the runoff series.The main conclusions are that：1） Repeated periodic oscillations accompanied by an extremely large fluctuation are presented in the runoff series with an obvious difference between wet and dry years,and the major periods of the time series are about 3,8,16 and 23 years respectively.Among them,the presented maximum periodic oscillation is 23 years scale.2） In the 23-year time scale,the wet periods are 1950-1958,1969-1980 and 1992-2003,and the dry periods are 1959-1968,1981-1991 and 2004-2011.3） It can be predicted from the view of long time scales that the low annual runoff will likely occur in the near future.     

Holocene abrupt climate shifts and mid-Holocene drought intervals recorded in Barkol Lake of Northern Xinjiang of China

Study results in this paper have indicated that the Holocene climate in Xinjiang, Northwestem China has been alternating between wet and dry conditions, and was punctuated with a series of abrupt climate shifts. A sediment core taken from Barkol Lake in the northern Xinjiang of Northwest China was analyzed at 1 cm interval for grain-size distribution. Abrupt climate shifts revealed by the grain-size proxy occurred at ca 1.4, 3.0, 4.3, 5.6, 8.0 cal kyr B.E, which were well correlated to both the abrupt shifts recorded in the North Atlantic Ocean （NAO） and the Holocene sea surface temperature （SST） cooling events in the Arabian Ocean. The correlation indicated that the climatic changes in the extreme arid Northwest China were associated with the NAO, probably via the North Atlantic Oscillation-affected westerly winds. The strength and position of westerly winds probably modulated the Siberian-Mongolian high- pressure system （winter monsoon）, and played an important role in climate change of Northwest China. Moreover, an evident drought interval during the middle Holocene was also revealed by grain-size proxy.     

The quaternary climo-environment changes in Chaiwopu basin of Xinjiang region

This paper describes the paleoclimatic changesoccurring in the Chaiwopu Basin since 730,000 yr.B.P., together with theformation and evolution of Chaiwopu Lake based on the chronology and characteristics of a core drilled in the basin. Analysis of the drilling core provides information on the climate and environment of the area. It would appear that the paleoclimatic changes that occurred in the basin during the Pleistocene was controlled by the relationship between the sun and the earth and by Long-term (10,000 yr.) climatic cycles. The climate tended to cold-dry during the glacial period (ice age) and warm-moist during the interglacial. Following the warm period of the Holocene, short-term (1,000 yr.) climatic cycles occurred in cool-moist periods, similar to the “Little Ice Age”, alternated with warm-dry periods.     

Grain-size characteristics of sediments formed since 8600 yr B.P. in middle reaches of Yarlung Zangbo River in Tibet and their paleoenvironmental significance

Widespread aeolian sediments have been found in the middle reaches of the Yarlung Zangbo River, China. The grain-size characteristics of sediments from Cha'er Section in the area were analyzed. The results show that the section include one stratum of paleo-mobile dunes, four strata of paleo-semi-fixed dunes, two strata of paleo-fixed dunes, one stratum of sandy immature soils. The paleo-mobile and paleo-somi-fixed dune sand in this section are similar to modern aeolian sand in either grain-size composition or Mz and σ distribution. Compared the above types of dunes each other, the content of sand substance decreases, while the content of silt and clay increases for palco-fixed dunes and sandy immature soils. Combined with age data for each stratum, the analysis shows that these strata are the products of climate changes and the evolution of aeolian landforms. The evolutionary sequence of the paleoclimate and of acolian activities in the valley since 8600 yr B.P. reveals four stages: 8600-5700 yr B.P., when the paleoclimate was cold and dry, with strong winds, thereby activating dunes; 5700-3600 yr B.P., when it was warm and wet, with weak winds, causing dunes to undergo soil-forming processes; 3600-1900 yr B.P., when climate shifted from cold-dry with strong winds to warm-wet with weak winds, and activated dunes were fixed again; and 1900 yr B.P. -present, when the climate became fine, with weak winds, fixing dunes again.     

山丘区——泰莱谷地地下水资源计算分析

地下水资源计算工作涉及问题较多,特别是山丘区地下水资源计算方法异议较大:水文工作者往往采用基流切割方法,以基流量作为山丘区的地下水资源量;而水文地质工作者则强调地质结构;还有些搞地下水资源评价的工作者在山丘区根据不同的岩性,以“泉域”或