Formation and Variation of the Atmospheric Heat Source over the Tibetan Plateau and Its Climate Effects

To cherish the memory of the late Professor Duzheng YE on what would have been his 100 th birthday, and to celebrate his great accomplishment in opening a new era of Tibetan Plateau(TP) meteorology, this review paper provides an assessment of the atmospheric heat source(AHS) over the TP from different data resources, including observations from local meteorological stations, satellite remote sensing data, and various reanalysis datasets. The uncertainty and applicability of these heat source data are evaluated. Analysis regarding the formation of the AHS over the TP demonstrates that it is not only the cause of the atmospheric circulation, but is also a result of that circulation. Based on numerical experiments, the review further demonstrates that land–sea thermal contrast is only one part of the monsoon story. The thermal forcing of the Tibetan–Iranian Plateau plays a significant role in generating the Asian summer monsoon(ASM), i.e., in addition to pumping water vapor from sea to land and from the lower to the upper troposphere, it also generates a subtropical monsoon–type meridional circulation subject to the angular momentum conservation, providing an ascending-air large-scale background for the development of the ASM.     

Variations of Surface Heat Fluxes over the Tibetan Plateau before and after the Onset of the South Asian Summer Monsoon during 1979–2016

As the "Third Pole of the World," the Tibetan Plateau (TP) is an important thermal forcing to the South Asian summer monsoon (ASM) and even the global atmospheric circulation. In this paper, surface heat fluxes from the ERA-Interim reanalysis data during March-October of 1979-2016 in the TP and its surrounding areas are examined and analyzed. The results are as follows.(1) From March to May (before the ASM onset), the main body of the TP is dominated by sensible heat flux, which increases rapidly with high (low) values in the west (east), while the change of latent heat flux is small but it increases with time.(2) From June to August (after the ASM onset), sensible heat flux over the TP decreases, while latent heat flux increases rapidly with high (low) values in the east (west).(3) From September to October (after the ASM withdrawal), sensible and latent heat fluxes are comparable to each other in strength, again with high (low) sensible heat flux in the west (east).(4) During 1979-2016, surface sensible heat flux in the whole TP shows a slightly downward trend, while latent heat flux shows an increasing trend. Specifically, in the western TP, sensible (latent) heat flux shows a weak decreasing (an increasing) trend;while in the eastern TP, sensible (latent) heat flux decreases (increases obviously). These variations are consistent with the observed warming and moistening in the TP region. The above results are useful for further analysis of the change of atmospheric heat sources and surface heat fluxes over the TP based on the data from the Third Tibetan Plateau Atmospheric Science Experiment (TIPEX-Ⅲ).     

Decadal Relationship Between Atmospheric Heat Source and Winter-Spring Snow Cover over the Tibetan Plateau and Rainfall in East China

By using a reverse computation method and the NCEP/NCAR daily reanalysis data from 1960 to 2004, the atmospheric heat source （AHS） was calculated and analyzed. The results show that AHS over the Tibetan Plateau （TP） and its neighboring areas takes on a persistent downtrend in spring and summer during the foregone 50 years, especially the latest 20 years. Snow depth at 50 stations over the TP in winter and spring presents an increase, especially the spring snow depth exhibits a sharp increase in the late 1970s. A close negative correlation exists between snow cover and AHS over the TP and its neighboring areas, as revealed by an SVD analysis, namely if there is more snow over the TP in winter and spring, then the weaker AHS would appear over the TP in spring and summer. The SVD analysis between AHS over the TP in spring and summer and rainfall at 160 stations indicates that the former has a negative correlation with summer precipitation in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River, and a positive correlation with that in South China and North China. The SVD analysis of both snow cover over the TP in winter and spring and rainfall at the same 160 stations indicates that the former has a marked positive correlation with precipitation in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River, and a reversed correlation in South China and North China. On the decadal scale, the AHS and winter and spring snow cover over the TP have a close correlation with the decadal precipitation pattern shift （southern flood and northern drought） in East China. The mechanism on how the AHS over the TP influences rainfall in East China is discussed. The weakening of AHS over the TP in spring and summer reduces the thermodynamic difference between ocean and continent, leading to a weaker East Asian summer monsoon, which brings more water vapor to the Yangtze River Valley and less water vapor to North China. Meanwhile, the weakening of AHS over the TP renders the position of the subtropical high further westward and the r     

Characteristics of Atmospheric Heat Sources in the Tibetan Plateau-Tropical Indian Ocean Region

Investigating the temporal and spatial distributions of the atmospheric heat sources(AHS) over the Tibetan Plateau-Tropical Indian Ocean(TP-TIO) region is of great importance for the understanding of the evolution and development of the South Asian summer monsoon(SASM). This study used the Japanese 55-year Reanalysis(JRA-55) data from 1979 to 2016 and adopted statistical methods to study the characteristics of the AHS between the TP and TIO, and theirs link to the SASM on an interannual scale. The results indicated that the monthly variations of the AHS in the two regions were basically anti-phase, and that the summer AHS in the TP was obviously stronger than that in the TIO. There were strong AHS and atmospheric moisture sink(AMS) centers in both the eastern and western TP in summer. The AHS center in the east was stronger than that in the west, and the AMS centers showed the opposite pattern. In the TIO, a strong AHS center in the northwest-southeast direction was located near 10°S, 90°E.Trend analysis showed that summer AHS in the TIO was increasing significantly, especially before 1998, whereas there was a weakening trend in the TP. The difference of the summer AHS between the TP and TIO(hereafter IQ)was used to measure the thermal contrast between the TP and the TIO. The IQ showed an obvious decreasing trend.After 1998, there was a weak thermal contrast between the TP and the TIO, which mainly resulted from the enhanced AHS in the TIO. The land-sea thermal contrast, the TIO Hadley circulation in the southern hemisphere and the SASM circulation all weakened, resulting in abnormal circulation and abnormal precipitation in the Bay of Bengal(BOB).     

Persistence of Summer Sea Surface Temperature Anomalies in the Midlatitude North Pacific and Its Interdecadal Variability

The present study investigates the persistence of summer sea surface temperature anomalies(SSTAs) in the midlatitude North Pacific and its interdecadal variability. Summer SSTAs can persist for a long time(approximately 8–14 months)around the Kuroshio Extension(KE) region. This long persistence may be strongly related to atmospheric forcing because the mixed layer is too shallow in the summer to be influenced by the anomalies at depths in the ocean. Changes in atmospheric circulation, latent heat flux, and longwave radiation flux all contribute to the long persistence of summer SSTAs. Among these factors, the longwave radiation flux has a dominant influence. The effects of sensible heat flux and shortwave radiation flux anomalies are not significant. The persistence of summer SSTAs displays pronounced interdecadal variability around the KE region, and the variability is very weak during 1950–82 but becomes stronger during 1983–2016. The changes in atmospheric circulation, latent heat flux, and longwave radiation flux are also responsible for this interdecadal variability because their forcings on the summer SSTAs are sustained for much longer after 1982.     

Recent Progress in the Impact of the Tibetan Plateau on Climate in China

Studies of the impacts of the Tibetan Plateau （TP） on climate in China in the last four years are reviewed. It is reported that temperature and precipitation over the TP have increased during recent decades. From satellite data analysis, it is demonstrated that most of the precipitation over the TP is from deep convection clouds. Moreover, the huge TP mechanical forcing and extraordinary elevated thermal forcing impose remarkable impacts upon local circulation and global climate. In winter and spring, stream flow is deflected by a large obstacle and appears as an asymmetric dipole, making East Asia much colder than mid Asia in winter and forming persistent rainfall in late winter and early spring over South China. In late spring, TP heating contributes to the establishment and intensification of the South Asian high and the abrupt seasonal transition of the surrounding circulations. In summer, TP heating in conjunction with the TP air pump cause the deviating stream field to resemble a cyclonic spiral, converging towards and rising over the TP. Therefore, the prominent Asian monsoon climate over East Asia and the dry climate over mid Asia in summer are forced by both TP local forcing and Eurasian continental forcing.
Due to the longer memory of snow and soil moisture, the TP thermal status both in summer and in late winter and spring can influence the variation of Eastern Asian summer rainfall. A combined index using both snow cover over the TP and the ENSO index in winter shows a better seasonal forecast.
On the other hand, strong sensible heating over the Tibetan Plateau in spring contributes significantly to anchor the earliest Asian monsoon being over the eastern Bay of Bengal （BOB） and the western Indochina peninsula. Qualitative prediction of the BOB monsoon onset was attempted by using the sign of meridional temperature gradient in March in the upper troposphere, or at 400 hPa over the TP. It is also demonstrated by a numerical experiment and theoretical study that the heating over the TP lea     

土壤热异常影响地表能量平衡的个例分析和数值模拟

The statistical relationship between soil thermal anomaly and short-term climate change is presented based on a typical case study. Furthermore, possible physical mechanisms behind the relationship are revealed through using an off-line land surface model with a reasonable soil thermal forcing at the bottom of the soil layer.In the first experiment, the given heat flux is 5 W m-2 at the bottom of the soil layer (in depth of 6.3 m)for 3 months, while only a positive ground temperature anomaly of 0.06℃ can be found compared to the control run. The anomaly, however, could reach 0.65℃ if the soil thermal conductivity was one order of magnitude larger. It could be even as large as 0.81℃ assuming the heat flux at bottom is 10 W m-2. Meanwhile, an increase of about 10 W m-2 was detected both for heat flux in soil and sensible heat on land surface, which is not neglectable to the short-term climate change. The results show that considerable response in land surface energy budget could be expected when the soil thermal forcing reaches a certain spatial-tem poral scale. Therefore, land surface models should not ignore the upward heat flux from the bottom of the soil layer. Moreover, integration for a longer period of time and coupled land-atmosphere model are also necessary for the better understanding of this issue.     

Influence of Late Springtime Surface Sensible Heat Flux Anomalies over the Tibetan and Iranian Plateaus on the Location of the South Asian High in Early Summer

Variation in the location of the South Asian High(SAH) in early boreal summer is strongly influenced by elevated surface heating from the Tibetan Plateau(TP) and the Iranian Plateau(IP). Based on observational and ERA-Interim data,diagnostic analyses reveal that the interannual northwestward–southeastward(NW–SE) shift of the SAH in June is more closely correlated with the synergistic effect of concurrent surface thermal anomalies over the TP and IP than with each single surface thermal anomaly over either plateau from the preceding May. Concurrent surface thermal anomalies over these two plateaus in May are characterized by a negative correlation between sensible heat flux over most parts of the TP(TPSH)and IP(IPSH). This anomaly pattern can persist till June and influences the NW–SE shift of the SAH in June through the release of latent heat(LH) over northeastern India. When the IPSH is stronger(weaker) and the TPSH is weaker(stronger)than normal in May, an anomalous cyclone(anticyclone) appears over northern India at 850 hPa, which is accompanied by the ascent(descent) of air and anomalous convergence(divergence) of moisture flux in May and June. Therefore, the LH release over northeastern India is strengthened(weakened) and the vertical gradient of apparent heat source is decreased(increased)in the upper troposphere, which is responsible for the northwestward(southeastward) shift of the SAH in June.     

SEASONAL PERSISTENCE OF THE WEST PACIFIC SUBTROPICAL HIGH AND ITS RELATIONSHIP WITH THE SURFACE HEAT FLUX ANOMALY

This paper investigates the interannual variation of the West Pacific Subtropical High (WPSH) intensity based on the data compiled by the Chinese National Climate Center. Monthly reanalysis data from National Centers for Environmental Prediction and National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCEP/NCAR) are also used to study the lead-lag relationship between WPSH intensity and surface heat flux anomalies. The three major findings are as follows: First, WPSH intensity presents good seasonal persistence, especially from winter to the ensuing summer. Persistence is more significant after 1977, especially from spring to summer, and from summer to autumn; persistence of anticyclonic anomalies are significantly better than cyclonic anomalies. Second, surface heat flux tends to present opposite anomalous patterns between the strong and weak years of the WPSH intensity, which is especially valid at the latent heat flux over the ocean. Simultaneous correlations between surface heat flux and WPSH intensity in each of the seasons are marked by similar key areas. Finally, surface heat flux from the preceding winter of a strong summer WPSH is quite similar to strong spring WPSH, but the positive anomalies over the northwest Pacific and south of Japan are notably stronger. The situations in the weak years are similar except for those over the northwest Pacific: winter surface heat flux shows negative anomalies for a weak spring WPSH, but positive anomalies for a weak summer WPSH. It is suggested that surface heat flux in the previous winter plays an important role in maintaining the WPSH intensity in the ensuing spring and summer.     

Can Current AGCMs Reproduce Historical Changes in the Atmospheric Diabatic Heating over the Tibetan Plateau?

Recent studies have demonstrated a persistent decreasing trend in the spring sensible heat（SH） source over the Tibetan Plateau（TP） during the past three decades. By comparing simulations from nine state-of-the-art atmospheric general circulation models（AGCMs） driven by historical forcing fields with both observational data and five reanalysis datasets, the authors found that the AGCMs are unable to reproduce the change in the SH flux over the TP. This deficiency arises because the observed decreasing trend in SH flux depends primarily on the change in surface wind speed according to the bulk formula, whereas in the models it is also influenced largely by changes in the land-air temperature difference related to the systematic cold bias. In addition, an obvious discrepancy exists in other aspects of the diabatic heating simulated by the models, suggesting that a significant improvement is required in the physical schemes associated with land surface processes and diabatic heating over the complicated topography.     

加强业务管理提高测报质量

我局从1999～2003年,测报工作连续4年未出现错情,在此期间共有1个250个班,9个百班无错通过上级业务部门验收.在仪器保管、使用、维护上符合要求,对外报送的各种表、簿都能做好出门合格.     

On the forecast of the onset and end of the convective season in the Amazon

Summary ?Some features of the climate system that can be considered predictors of the onset and end of the convective season over the Amazon were identified using one-month lag correlations and field composites. The fields analyzed were sea surface temperature (SST), outgoing long-wave radiation (OLR), vertical velocity and upper tropospheric winds. Warm (cold) anomalies in the SST in the tropical North Atlantic and the Caribbean Sea tend to be associated with delayed (early) onsets. Likewise, there is a tendency towards a delayed (early) end of the convective season with cold (warm) anomalies in these ocean regions. In addition, the SST in the cold tongue region of the equatorial Pacific is negatively, though weakly correlated with the onset date. The signal of this SST is more evident in the case of the end date, which is earlier with respect to its mean date in most of El Ni?o cases. The convective activity intensity itself conditions the onset and the end of the convective season, as it is evidenced by the behavior of the OLR and the vertical velocity fields. The more (less) intense the convective activity over South America during the preceding month, the earlier the onset and the later the end of the convective season on the Amazon region. The prediction of the onset and end dates of the convective season in the Amazon region was explored using a simple multiple regression technique based on the variables that have shown precursor signals with respect to these dates. The correlation coefficient between the predicted and the observed onset date is 0.81, and in the case of the end date, it is 0.76. The skill to predict early, delayed and normal categories was high, since in more than two thirds of the cases the category was successfully predicted, and there were no predictions of categories opposed to those observed. Received July 23, 2001; revised February 22, 2002; accepted April 26, 2002     

准两年振荡对大气中微量气体分布的影响

NCAR的包含化学、辐射、动力相互作用的两维模式（SOCRATES）移植回国后进行了初步的模拟试验,用以研究某些对环境问题重要的微量气体的化学、辐射、动力传输过程。在不考虑极地平流层云和气溶胶表面非均相化学等情况下,模式积分多年,计算结果稳定,模拟的风场、温度场显示出正常的季节变化,模拟的微量气体分布与卫星实测资料对照,结果也比较一致。为了探讨热带平流层风场的准两年周期振荡（QBO）对平流层微量气体分布的影响,我们做了QBO强迫的数值试验,即在模式中加入QBO强迫,并与不考虑QBO强迫的模拟结果对比。结果表明,QBO与其相关的次级环流所引起动力输送的变化,使平流层微量气体分布发生变化。     

Comparing the theoretical versions of the Beaufort scale, the T-Scale and the Fujita scale

2005 is the bicentenary of the Beaufort Scale and its wind-speed codes: the marine version in 1805 and the land version later. In the 1920s when anemometers had come into general use, the Beaufort Scale was quantified by a formula based on experiment. In the early 1970s two tornado wind-speed scales were proposed: (1) an International T-Scale based on the Beaufort Scale; and (2) Fujita's damage scale developed for North America. The International Beaufort Scale and the T-Scale share a common root in having an integral theoretical relationship with an established scientific basis, whereas Fujita's Scale introduces criteria that make its intensities non-integral with Beaufort. Forces on the T-Scale, where T stands for Tornado force, span the range 0 to 10 which is highly useful world wide. The shorter range of Fujita's Scale (0 to 5) is acceptable for American use but less convenient elsewhere. To illustrate the simplicity of the decimal T-Scale, mean hurricane wind speed of Beaufort 12 is T2 on the T-Scale but F1.121 on the F-Scale; while a tornado wind speed of T9 (= B26) becomes F4.761. However, the three wind scales can be uni-fied by either making F-Scale numbers exactly half the magnitude of T-Scale numbers [i.e. F′half = T / 2 = (B / 4) − 4] or by doubling the numbers of this revised version to give integral equivalence with the T-Scale. The result is a decimal formula F′double = T = (B / 2) − 4 named the TF-Scale where TF stands for Tornado Force. This harmonious 10-digit scale has all the criteria needed for world-wide practical effectiveness.     

Analysis of the Characteristics of the Low-level Jets in the Middle Reaches of the Yangtze River during the Mei-yu Season

Here, we analyze the characteristics and the formation mechanisms of low-level jets(LLJs) in the middle reaches of the Yangtze River during the 2010 mei-yu season using Wuhan station radiosonde data and the fifth generation of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts(ERA5) reanalysis dataset. Our results show that the vertical structure of LLJs is characterized by a predominance of boundary layer jets(BLJs) concentrated at heights of 900–1200 m.The BLJs occur most frequently at 230...     

Quantifying the uncertainty of the annular mode time scale and the role of the stratosphere

The impact of high resolution modern vegetation cover on the West African climate is examined using the International Centre for Theoretical Physics Regional Climate Model implementing the NCAR Community Land Model. Two high resolution 25 km long-term simulations driven by the output from a coarser 50-km resolution simulation are performed for the period 1998–2010. One high resolution simulation uses an earlier and coarser-resolution version of plant functional type distribution and leaf area index, while the other uses a more recent, higher-quality, and finer-resolution version of the data. The results indicate that the new land cover distribution substantially alters the distribution of temperature with warming in Central Nigeria, northern Gulf of Guinea and part of the Sahel due to the replacement of C4 grass with corn; and cooling along the coastlines of the Gulf of Guinea and in Central Africa due to the replacement of C4 grass with tropical broadleaf evergreen trees. Changes in latent heat flux appear to be largely responsible for these temperature changes with a net decrease (increase) in regions of warming (cooling). The improved land cover distribution also results in a wetter monsoon season. The presence of corn tends to favor larger precipitation amounts via more intense events, while the presence of tropical broadleaf evergreen trees tends to favor the occurrence of both more intense and more frequent events. The wetter conditions appear to be sustained via (1) an enhanced soil moisture feedback; and (2) elevated moisture transport due to increased low-level convergence in regions south of 10N where the most substantial land cover differences are present. Overall the changes induced by the improved vegetation cover improve, to some extent, the performance of the high resolution regional climate model in simulating the main West African summer monsoon features.     

流场配置及地形对西南低涡形成的动力作用

本文采用定常二层模式讨论较小地形及高、低层流场配置对西南低涡形成的动力作用。指出了西南低涡的形成是与盆地、河谷以及其上气流分层有关的一种定常态.在上、下为西风分层时期,低层的浅薄暖湿西风有利于西南低涡的形成.在上、下为东、西风分层时期,上层浅薄东风亦有利于西南低涡的形成.小型的凸起山脉对西南低涡的形成没有作用.     

由中国历史气候记录对季风导致唐朝灭亡说的质疑

2007年1月4日杂志发表了Yancheva等10人的题为"Influence of the intertropical convergence zone on the East-Asian monsoon"(热带辐合带对东亚季风的影响)的论文[1],这是德国波兹坦地学研究中心气候动力与沉积学科的主管豪格(G.H.Haug)率领的科研小组的一项成果,认为是季风的变化引起的长期干旱导致了唐朝的灭亡.