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1.
New observations from two late Precambrian (~800-650 Ma) sedimentary rhythmites in South Australia (Reynella Siltstone and Chambers Bluff Tillite) reveal cycles structurally similar to the ~12-laminae cycles of the ~650-Ma Elatina Formation but which comprise from 15 to 26 or more laminae. The new data are difficult to accomodate in depositional models for the Elatina Formation whereby its laminae are regarded as annual and the cyclicity ascribed to solar variability (Williams and Sonett, 1985) or to the combined influences of the sunspot cycle and the lunar nodal tide (Zahnle and Walker, 1987). If, however, the long-term Elatina Cycle and not the individual lamina is taken as a yearly climatic signal, the Elatina and other rhythmites studied may be interpreted as the deposits of marine ebb-tidal deltas that record variability in the velocity and range of paleo-ebb tides. The basic laminae-cycles would represent lunar fortnightly cycles of diurnal and/or semidiurnal laminae, commonly truncated through non-deposition at neap tides. Despite numerous empirical similarities between the Elatina and sunspot series, the ebb-tidal model for deposition is preferred because it accounts plausibly for observations from all three rhythmites studied.  相似文献   

2.
Summary The objective of this study is to examine critically the relationship between solar cycles and Indian monsoon rainfall, for the period 1871–1984, and to search for significant periodicities, by utilizing the maximum entropy spectral technique (MEST). The results of this study using MEST show clearly a significant 11-year cycle in solar activity and rainfall. Also present is a significant 7.33-year cycle in rainfall. The double (Hale) sunspot cycle is not discernible here either in sunspot number or in rainfall. The cross-spectral analysis between the sunspot number and rainfall confirms the existence of a reasonable correlation over an 11-year cycle with a relative phase lag of 0.16 year (sun lead).
Zusammenfassung Zweck dieser Studie ist die kritische Überprüfung des Zusammenhangs zwischen Sonnenzyklus und dem indischen Monsunregen im Zeitraum 1871–1984 und die Festlegung spezifischer Periodizitäten mittels der Maximal-Entropie-Analyse (MEST). Die Resultate zeigen einen signifikanten 7,33-jährigen Niederschlagszyklus. Der doppelte (Hale) Sonnenfleckenzyklus ist hierbei nicht ausnehmbar, weder bei der Anzahl der Sonnenflecken, noch beim Niederschlag. Die Kreuz-Spektralanalyse zwischen Sonnenfleckenzyklus und Niederschlag bestätigt die Existenz einer Korrelation über einen 11jährigen Zyklus mit einer relativen Phasenverzögerung von 0,16 Jahren.


On leave from the Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology, Pune, India.

With 3 Figures  相似文献   

3.
Spectral analysis of 96 yr of Bering Sea storm records reported in the Nome News (1899–1903) and Nome Nugget (1901–1993) newspapers indicate regularities in the 11-, 5–7- and 3-yr periods. Statistical tests on the 11-yr period found no statistically significant correlation with sunspot cyclicity despite a tendency toward maximum storminess during low sunspot periods. The 3- and 5–7-yr cycles may correlate with variability in the El Niño Southern Oscillation and easterly shifts in the mean position of North Pacific low pressure anomalies. Storm surges were infrequent from 1916 to 1928 and 1947 to 1959, while the most frequent and intense storms hit during 1900–1913, 1936–1946, 1974–1976 and in 1992.  相似文献   

4.
Joel Guiot 《Climatic change》1987,10(3):249-268
This paper presents an attempt to summarize various sparse proxy series into continuous and exhaustive climatic data. Freeze-up and break-up dates, early meteorological records and tree-ring data have been combined for the Hudson Bay region and 22 continuous proxy series extending from 1700 to 1979 have been deduced. These new series in term provided the basis for a regressive reconstruction of six seasonal temperature series. Verification tests are successful mainly for the high frequencies components. The low frequencies variability is better estimated by a best analogues method. Both kinds of reconstructions have been combined to improve the results. The main characteristic of the reconstructions is a warming trend beginning at the end of the 19th century. Evidence for a beat wave resulting from 22-year solar and 18.6-year lunar nodal tidal cycles is presented. A phase analysis showed results consistent with other studies of summer temperature variability: temperature maxima correspond to sunspot minima ending an even cycle and are emphasized by the lunar maxima. Different phenomena are pointed out for autumn and winter temperatures: their maxima coincide to sunspot even maxima amplified by lunar minima. In spring, the transition season, these signals are not apparent.  相似文献   

5.
Analysis of the annual blue crab catch in Chesapeake Bay for the years 1922–1976 shows that there are variations with periods of 18.0, 10.7, and 8.6 years. Analysis of Philadelphia air temperatures shows periods of 17.5, 9.8, and 7.4 years. The periods of 18.0 and 17.5 years agree with the 18.6 year period of the Earth-Moon-Sun tidal force, and the periods of 8.6 and 7.4 years agree with the 8.8 year period of the Earth-Moon-Sun tidal force, within experimental error. The periods of 9.8 and 10.7 years, for the temperatures and crabs, respectively, are probably related to the 10.5 year sunspot cycle within experimental error.  相似文献   

6.
A historic record of spring ice-jam floods of the Peace-Athabasca Delta was analyzed for the years 1826–1995. The temporal pattern of flooding is non-random. The likelihood of a flood following a flood, or a non-flood following a non-flood, is greater than expected by chance. Probability analysis of flood occurrence reveals that the period 1860–1880 was a time of unusually few floods, and the period 1915–1950 was a time of unusually frequent floods. The long-term flood frequency is 1 flood in 6.25 years. Changes in flood frequency over the record reveal a pattern of oscillation described by a sine-based model that is correlated with the long-term (Gleissberg) cycle of solar activity. Monte Carlo simulation was used to test a Bennett Dam Model and a Cyclic Model. The Bennett Dam Model is unlikely to have generated the observed flood history (p=0.04). The observed flood history shows a better fit to the Cyclic Model (p=0.65). No correlations between floods and ENSO cold or warm events was detected. The most recent wet period began about 1900 and ended in the early 1960's prior to completion of the W. A. C. Bennett Dam in British Columbia. As independent corroboration of climatically-driven changes in flood frequency we present three additional lines of evidence. The pattern of annual muskrat returns (95 year record) reveals both 10 year cycles and long-term patterns that agree well with the observed flood cycle. The annual area burned in Wood Buffalo National Park is inversely related to flood occurrence. Incised channels and dendritic drainage patterns in the bed of Lake Mamawi provide probable evidence of a previous dry period in the delta. Climatic change or oscillation likely underlies the drying trend observed in recent decades in the Peace-Athabasca Delta.  相似文献   

7.
The annual mean sea-level time series for Stockholm (Sweden) for 1825–1984 (160 data points) had a large long-term negative (almost linear, only slightly quadratic) trend. After correcting for the same, the detrended series was subjected to maximum entropy spectral analysis (MESA). Choosing selected periodicities for further multiple regression analysis, series for the first 80 yr (1825–1904) showed periodicities at T = 2.40, 5.0, 6.1, 13.5, 14.8 and 32 yr, significant at a 2 level. The three largest peaks (italicized) had amplitudes of approximately (2.5–3.0) ± 0.8 cm. The latter 80 yr (1905–1984) showed significant periodicities at T= 2.05, 2.7, 3.0, 3.6, 4.4, 5.5, 6.3, 7.7, 9.8, 20.5 and 33 yr. The three largest peaks (italicized) had amplitudes of approximately (2.0–2.5) ± 0.7 cm. The whole period of 160 yr (1825–1984) showed significant periodicities at T = 2.05, 2.9, 3.2, 4.5, 4.9, 5.6, 6.4, 7.8, 11.0, 13.7, 14.8, 29 and 43 yr. The three largest peaks (italicized) had amplitudes of approximately (1.6–1.9) ± 0.6 cm. All these significant peaks explained a variance of only about 30% or less, indicating a large random component of approximately 70%. Peaks at T = 11 yr (sunspot cycle) or T = 18.6 yr (lunar nodal term) were either absent or very weak. Most of the other peaks were transient (present in the first 80 yr or the latter 80 yr) except an uncertain quasibiennial oscillation (QBO) (T = 2–3 yr) and T = 5–6 yr and T 30 yr, which seemed to be persistent throughout the whole period. Some periodicities seem to resemble those seen in the Southern Oscillation (SO) index.  相似文献   

8.
Summary All total ozone observations ever made in the Northern polar region, including some from the 1930's, have been corrected and the basic climatology presented. The long-term ozone changes were considered in relation to the stratospheric temperatures. For each deviation from the monthly normal of the 100 hPa temperature by 1°C, there was found to be a corresponding 5–6 m atm-cm change in the monthly ozone deviation. A distinction between the ozone regimes over the Scandinavian, Canadian and East Siberian sectors of the polar region was noted. The strong appearance of the QBO (Quasi Biennial Oscillation) in the interannual ozone fluctuations was obvious. It is demonstrated that for the past three decades the total ozone experienced a few periods with positive and a few periods with negative deviations. In view of this, trends in ozone must obviously be based on greater than 10 years of data. During 1964–86, the weighted trend over the polar stations was (–0.9±0.4)% per decade. There have been, however, three periods (1958–64, 1968–76 and 1979–86), coinciding with the declining phase of the 11 year sunspot cycle, during which the ozone at all polar stations has been declining by about 0.5% per year (or less if the QBO component is filtered out). Some of the differences with Antarctic ozone are mentioned and the dominant role of the stratospheric circulation for the ozone variations is discussed. In general the Arctic ozone observations show no evidence of a major ozone decline similar to that over Antarctica.With 9 Figures  相似文献   

9.
Summary The mean daily march of pressure (hourly values) for each month of the 96 year period 1894–1989 in Athens, Greece is studied using Fourier analysis. The annual variation of the harmonic parameters (amplitude, time of maximum,x andy-components) is examined. The globally excited 2nd and 3rd harmonics show in general the same behaviour as in other places of the Earth. Similar features show the corresponding parameters of the daily solar radiation march. The first harmonic displays some local characteristics. The long period fluctuations study revealed statistically significant trends in most parameters of the 2nd harmonic, most strikingly the 0.5 h shift in the time of its maximum during the 20th century. Power spectrum analysis showed the existence of a biennial oscillation inB 1, thex-component of the first harmonic, but this oscillation is mainly confined to the second half of the entire period. A periodicity of about 6 years which could be associated to the Southern Oscillation was also found inB 1 while inA 1, they-component, a periodicity close to the 11-year solar cycle and another one close to the nutation of the Earth's axis are present. The lunar tides are too small to be detected by the same methods. However the semilunar tide was revealed to be 10–20 times smaller than the semisolar.With 8 Figures  相似文献   

10.
Solar Forcing of Global Climate Change Since The Mid-17th Century   总被引:4,自引:0,他引:4  
Spacecraft measurements of the sun's total irradiance since 1980 have revealed a long-term variation that is roughly in phase with the 11-year solar cycle. Its origin is uncertain, but may be related to the overall level of solar magnetic activity as well as to the concurrent activity on the visible disk. A low-pass Gaussian filtered time series of the annual sunspot number has been developed as a suitable proxy for solar magnetic activity that contains a long-term component related to the average level of activity as well as a short-term component related to the current phase of the 11-year cycle. This time series is also assumed to be a proxy for solar total irradiance, and the irradiance is reconstructed for the period since 1617 based on the estimate from climatic evidence that global temperatures during the Maunder Minimum of solar activity, which coincided with one of the coldest periods of the Little Ice Age, were about 1 °C colder than modern temperatures. This irradiance variation is used as the variable radiative forcing function in a one-dimensional ocean–climate model, leading to a reconstruction of global temperatures over the same period, and to a suggestion that solar forcing and anthropogenic greenhouse-gas forcing made roughly equal contributions to the rise in global temperature that took place between 1900 and 1955. The importance of solar variability as a factor in climate change over the last few decades may have been underestimated in recent studies.  相似文献   

11.
Summary After an accurate search for old documents in Italian archives, the series of the sea surges has been reconstructed for a period of 12 centuries. In addition to written documents, other sources have also been investigated, e.g. the identification marks made by the Venetian Republic at the mean level of the high tides and accurate drawings made in the 18th century by the painterCanaletto with the help of a portable camera obscura. The sea surges at Venice are due to several forcing factors: a low pressure passing over the Mediterranean and generating a Sirocco wind; the barometric effect associated with a gradient of atmospheric pressure over the sea waters; free oscillations in the Adriatic sea; solar and lunar influences; subsidence of the soil. Except for a period which culminated in 1424–1442, when the moon was in perigee and the earth in perihelion, in general the meteorological factors largely dominate over the astronomical ones: the seasonal distribution shows a narrow peak in November–December and the series is important to show the frequency of the anomalies in the atmospheric circulations which determined meridional winds over the Adriatic sea. The analysis of the data shows clearly the 18.6 yr lunar nutation influence and a continuous rise of the sea level despite the cooling of the Little Ice Age. The most perturbed period were respectively: 1914–today, due to anthropogenic factors, i.e. excavating of new canals and underground water pumping; 1500–1550, during the Spörer Minimum of solar activity; 1720–1830; 1250–1350, which was also a stormy period in the North Sea. No apparent links with the Maunder Minimum of solar activity were found.With 7 Figures  相似文献   

12.
The sea level history of the northern Gulf of Mexico during recent geologic time has closely followed global eustatic sea level change. Regional effects due to tectonics and glacio-isostasy have been minimal. Over the past several million years the northern Gulf coast, like most stable coastal regions of the globe, has experienced major swings of sea level below and above present level, accompanied by major shifts in shoreline position. During advances of the northern hemisphere ice sheets, sea level dropped by more than 100 m, extending the shoreline in places more than 100 km onto the shelf. For much of the period since the last glacial maximum (LGM), 20,000 years ago, the region has seen rates of sea level rise far in excess of those experienced during the period represented by long-term tide gauges. The regional tide gauge record reveals that sea level has been rising at about 2 mm/year for the past century, while the average rate of rise since the LGM has been 6 mm/year, with some periods of abrupt rise exceeding 40 mm/year. During times of abrupt rise, Gulf of Mexico shorelines were drowned in place and overstepped. The relative stability of modern coastal systems is due primarily to stabilization of sea level approximately 6,000 years ago, resulting in the slow rates of rise experienced during historic time. Recent model projections of sea level rise over the next century and beyond may move northern Gulf coastal environments into a new equilibrium regime, more similar to that experienced during the deglaciation than that which has existed during historic time.  相似文献   

13.
Summary Several patterns of a daily pluviometric regime are obtained from an homogeneous set of daily rainfall recorded at the Fabra Observatory (NE Spain) for the period 1917–1999. Power spectral analyses of four annual pluviometric indices, determined from different daily rain amount percentiles, are performed. Periodicities of the quasi-biannual oscillation (QBO), North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and sunspot cycles are correlated in some cases with empirical spectral peaks of the indices exceeding Markov red-noise with a confidence level of 95%. Depending on the rainy day percentiles, a set of short periods (2.1–4.6 years), a second group of intermediate periods (5.5 and 9.2 years) and, finally, a third group of long periods of 11.8, 20.8 and 41.5 years can be distinguished. These periods are compared with those derived for other European and African emplacements. Additionally, the consecutive irregularity of every annual series is quantified by means of a concept similar to the entropy.  相似文献   

14.
根据陕西省1954—2013年的森林火灾统计数据和1951—2013年南方涛动指数(SOI)、太阳黑子数逐月观测数据,采用异常度分析技术,研究了森林火灾重灾年当年及前后各3 a逐月南方涛动指数(SOI)异常变化规律及同期太阳活动特点。研究发现,陕西省森林火灾重灾时段以关键年前3 a至关键年当年SOI指数持续负值为前提条件,并在前1年8月逐渐增大,若同时太阳黑子活动处于谷期或者谷期极小值向较大值转变的时期,可预测未来一段时间内陕西可能处于森林火灾高火险时段,这一结果可为当地森林火灾重灾年的预测和森林火灾防控物资的调度提供参考。  相似文献   

15.
The global distribution of methane in the troposphere   总被引:6,自引:0,他引:6  
Methane has been measured in air samples collected at approximately weekly intervals at 23 globally distributed sites in the NOAA/GMCC cooperative flask sampling network. Sites range in latitude from 90° S to 76° N, and at most of these we report 2 years of data beginning in early 1983. All measurements have been made by gas chromatography with a flame ionization detector at the NOAA/GMCC laboratory in Boulder, Colorado. All air samples have been referenced to a single secondary standard of methane-in-air, ensuring a high degree of internal consistency in the data. The precision of measurements is estimated from replicate determinations on each sample as 0.2%. The latitudinal distribution of methane and the seasonal variation of this distribution in the marine boundary layer has been defined in great detail, including a remarkable uniformity in background levels of methane in the Southern Hemisphere. We report for the first time the observation of a complete seasonal cycle of methane at the South Pole. A significant vertical gradient is observed between a sea level and a high altitude site in Hawaii. Globally averaged background concentrations in the marine boundary layer have been calculated for the 2 year-period May 1983–April 1985 inclusive, from which we find an average increase of 12.8 ppb per year, or 0.78% per year when referenced to the globally averaged concentration (1625 ppb) at the mid-point of this period. We present evidence that there has been a slowing down in the methane growth rate.Presented at the Conference on the Scientific Application of Baseline Observations of Atmospheric Composition (SABOAC), Aspendale, Australia, 7–9 November 1984.  相似文献   

16.
Growth trends of Scots pine (Pinus sylvestris) at its northernmost extent may be an indicator of changes in the carbon cycle of terrestrial forest ecosystems. Using a method which removed age trends from the data, a time-series analysis of annual radial increment in wood over the last few decades compared with the period of the last registered warming (maximum around 1930–40), revealed elevated growth of 78% for trees 0–20 years old, 56% for trees 21–40 years old, 21% for trees 41–60 years old, and 10% for trees more than 101 years old. Increments of trees in the61–80 and 81–100 years old age classes from the two periods were similar. The higher rate of growth in recent times occurred despite a decrease in temperature after about 1940 and significant air pollution. During the last century growth of Scots pine increased for trees in all age groups, except for trees in the 81–100 year old age class for which it was constant. The average rates of growth were estimated at 0.016 mm/year for trees in the 0–20 year age class, 0.012 mm/year for the 21–40 year age class, 0.005 mm/year for the 41–60 year age class, 0.008 mm/year for the 61–80 year age class and 0.006 mm/year for trees in the greater than 101 year age class. The growth trends were unstable over time and took place concurrent with increasing oscillations in radial increment. The most probable reasons for the marked increase in radial increment growth of Scots pine in this region are climate warming and higher levels of carbon dioxide. Together these may produce a synergistic effect on growth.  相似文献   

17.
For the extension of the radiocarbon calibration curve beyond 10000 14C y BP, laminated sediment from Lake Soppensee (central Switzerland) was dated. The radiocarbon time scale was obtained using accelerator mass spectrometry (AMS) dating of terrestrial macrofossils selected from the Soppensee sediment. Because of an unlaminated sediment section during the Younger Dryas (10000–11000 14C y BP), the absolute time scale, based on counting annual layers (varves), had to be corrected for missing varves. The Soppensee radiocarbon-verve chronology covers the time period from 6000 to 12000 14C y BP on the radiocarbon time scale and 7000 to 13000 calendar y BP on the absolute time scale. The good agreement with the tree ring curve in the interval from 7000 to 11450 cal y BP (cal y indicates calendar year) proves the annual character of the laminations. The ash layer of the Vasset/Killian Tephra (Massif Central, France) is dated at 8230±140 14C y BP and 9407±44 cal y BP. The boundaries of the Younger Dryas biozone are placed at 10986±69 cal y BP (Younger Dryas/Preboreal) and 1212±86 cal y BP (Alleröd/Younger Dryas) on the absolute time scale. The absolute age of the Laacher See Tephra layer, dated with the radiocarbon method at 10 800 to 11200 14C y BP, is estimated at 12350 ± 135 cal y BP. The oldest radiocarbon age of 14190±120 14C y BP was obtained on macrofossils of pioneer vegetation which were found in the lowermost part of the sediment profile. For the late Glacial, the offset between the radiocarbon (10000–12000 14C y BP) and the absolute time scale (11400–13000 cal y BP) in the Soppensee chronology is not greater than 1000 years, which differs from the trend of the U/Th-radiocarbon curve derived from corals.  相似文献   

18.
Aerosol size spectra (d=10 nm–10 μm) were measured with an electrical aerosol spectrometer (EAS) at Mace Head on the west coast of Ireland. Several small aerosol particle (diameter 10–32 nm) concentration bursts were observed during the measurement period. Relationships between the events, air mass trajectories, tide height, and meteorological parameters are examined. Series of bursts were observed when a spectral transformation due to subsequent particle growth from 10 to 56–100 nm can be identified in an Eulerian experiment. Particle growth rates of between 1 and 3 nm/h were determined. These bursts appear in cold and comparatively clean arctic or polar air masses with temperature and relative humidity fluctuations, and do not correlate with low tide in some cases. These episodes, similar to those frequently found in the continental boundary layer, are thought to occur over a wide area and, for clear detection, require stable airflow for a few days. Elevated small-particle concentration events are more common during low tide or shortly after, and are typically associated with low wind speeds. Here, the increased shore exposure during low tide is thought to influence the nucleation and the subsequent growth of these aerosol particles. The occurrences of the bursts are found to depend on local wind direction. The highest d=10–32 nm particle concentrations appeared for wind sectors furthest from the tidal regions when the wind direction was 150–160°(south-easterly). Most of the events occurred during daytime when solar irradiation is most intense.  相似文献   

19.
Trends in fog frequencies in the Los Angeles Basin   总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1  
Data from throughout the Los Angeles area were examined to determine the horizontal distribution of dense fog (visibility < 400 m) in the region and trends over time. The relationship between the occurrence of dense fog to the phase of two atmosphere–ocean cycles: the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) measured by the PDO Index and the Southern Oscillation measured by the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) was investigated. In addition, the influence of the urban heat island and the amount of suspended particulate matter were assessed. For the three stations that had 22 or more years of data, we examined trends and the relation to atmosphere–ocean cycles. Results show a decrease in the occurrence of very low visibilities (< 400 m) at the stations in close proximity to the Pacific Ocean, Los Angeles International Airport (LAX) and Long Beach International Airport (LGB). Occurrence of the frequency of low visibilities at these two locations was also highly correlated with the phase of the PDO. Only a weak, non-statistically significant relationship was seen with the SOI. At Burbank, a reporting station about 30 km from the ocean, no trends were noted, and there was no evidence of a correlation with either the PDO Index or the SOI. In the Los Angeles Central Business District (CBD) when comparing dense fog occurrence in the early 1960s to a similar period in the early 2000s we saw a decrease in dense fog from a mean of 10 h per year to a mean of 3 h per year. Also contributing to the decrease was decreasing particulate pollution and increased urban warming. A downward trend in particulate concentrations coupled with an upward trend in urban temperatures were associated with a decrease in dense fog occurrence at both LAX and LGB. These trends were evident for the period 1966–1997, but appear to have ended by the late 1990s.  相似文献   

20.
Summary The response of the stratosphere and lower mesosphere to the quasi-eleven-year solar activity cycle (indicated by sunspot variations) was studied using temperature data obtained from rockets which are mostly based on a datasonde system throughout the decade 1969–1978. It is suggested that the highest correlation between the long-term stratospheric-lower mesospheric temperature fluctuations and the Zürich sunspot number is obtained with a time lag of one year (sun leading). A comprehensive insight into the actual process accounting for the observed correlation would be gained from improved observational data, including observations of solar ultraviolet behavior.
Zusammenfassung Die Reaktion der Stratosphäre und der niederen Mesosphäre auf den 11jährigen-Sonnenzyklus (ausgedrückt durch Sonnenflecken-Variationen) wurde anhand von Temperaturdaten untersucht, die mit Raketensonden während des Jahrzehnts 1969–1978 ermittelt worden waren.Die Ergebnisse weisen darauf hin, daß die maximale Korrelation zwischen langfristigen stratosphärischen bzw. niedermesosphärischen Temperaturfluktuationen und der Anzahl der Sonnenflecken in Zürich mit einer Zeitverzögerung von einem Jahr zu erhalten ist.Ein besseres Verständnis des tatsächlichen Vorganges, dem die betrachtete Korrelation zugeschrieben wird, kann durch verbesserte Beobachtungsdaten unter Berücksichtigung der Sonnenaktivität im Ultravioletten gewonnen werden.
  相似文献   

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