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1.
Statistical tests have been used to adjust the Zemmouri seismic data using a distribution function. The Pareto law has been used and the probabilities of various expected earthquakes were computed. A mathematical expression giving the quantiles was established. The extreme values limiting law confirmed the accuracy of the adjustment method. Using the moment magnitude scale, a probabilistic model was made to predict the occurrences of strong earthquakes. The seismic structure has been characterized by the slope of the recurrence plot γ, fractal dimension D, concentration parameter Ksr, Hurst exponents Hr and Ht. The values of D, γ, Ksr, Hr, and Ht diminished many months before the principal seismic shock (M = 6.9) of the studied seismoactive zone has occurred. Three stages of the deformation of the geophysical medium are manifested in the variation of the coefficient G% of the clustering of minor seismic events.  相似文献   

2.
During the ruptures of an earthquake,the strain energy.△E,.will be transferred into,at least,three parts,i.e..the seismic radiation energy(E_s),fracture energy(E_g),and frictional energy(E_f),that is,△E = E_s + E_g + E_f.Friction,which is represented by a velocity- and state-dependent friction law by some researchers,controls the three parts.One of the main parameters of the law is the characteristic slip displacement.D_c.It is significant and necessary to evaluate the reliable value of D_c from observed and inverted seismic data.Since D_c controls the radiation efficiency.η_R = E_s/(E_s+ E_g),the value of η_r is a good constraint of estimating D_c.Integrating observed data and inverted results of source parameters from recorded seismograms.the values of E_s and E_g of an earthquake can be measured,thus leading to the value of η_R.The constraint used to estimate the reliable value of D_c will be described in this work.An example of estimates of D_c.based on the observed and inverted values of source parameters of the September 20,1999 M_S 7.6 Chi-Chi(Ji-Ji).Taiwan region,earthquake will be presented.  相似文献   

3.
We analyzed the most relevant seismic sequences that occurred from 1977 to 2007 in the Friuli-Venezia Giulia region (northeastern Italy) and western Slovenia. The eight aftershock sequences were triggered by low- to moderate-magnitude earthquakes with mainshock duration magnitude ranging from 3.7 to 5.6. The b-value of the Gutenberg–Richter law varies from 0.8 to 1.1. The modified Omori’s modeling of the sequences evidences values of the p exponent ranging from 0.8 to 1.0. Using the Reasenberg and Jones (Science 243:1173–1176, 1989; Science 265:1251–1252, 1994) approach, we computed the probabilistic estimate of the aftershock rates and the largest aftershock in given time intervals. The difference in magnitude between the mainshock and the largest aftershock is calculated according to the modified Båth law and using an approach that considers the partitioning of the radiated seismic energy between mainshock and aftershocks. The partitioning of the radiated seismic energy appears to play a significant role in the evolution of the sequences. We define the parameter R ES as the ratio between the radiated seismic energy of the mainshock and the summation of the seismic energy radiated by the aftershocks. The difference in magnitude between the mainshock and the largest aftershock, calculated with the parameter R ES, agrees well with the observed difference. In most sequences, the parameter R ES decreases very quickly until the occurrence of the largest aftershock and then becomes constant. By analyzing the values of R ES during the early hours following the mainshock, we found that the R ES values after 24 h are well related to the final ones, calculated on the whole sequence, and to the differences in magnitude between the mainshock and the largest aftershock.  相似文献   

4.
The seismological data in the area of induced seismicity in the region of the Nurek reservoir are analyzed. The analysis is based on the developed database for the earthquakes that occurred from 1955 to 1989 and is aimed at finding the regularities in the variations of the parameters of the transitional seismic regime caused by filling a reservoir. These parameters include the b-value—the slope of the graph of the Gutenberg–Richter frequency–magnitude relationship, the fractal dimension d of the set of the epicenters, and fracture cycle parameter q = αb ? d, where coefficient α determines the ratio between the magnitude and source size M = α log l + β. It is shown that during the filling of a reservoir, these parameters undergo statistically reliable variations: at the initial stages, the b-value increases, the fractal dimension of the set of epicenters decreases, and the fracture cycle parameter q grows and becomes positive in the middle of the time interval of reservoir filling. After a reservoir is filled, these parameters recover their background values. The aftershock sequences of the three strongest earthquakes—before, in the beginning, and in the middle of the reservoir filling period—are studied. It is confirmed that the Omori parameter p for the aftershock sequences during filling is smaller than for the earthquake before filling. Based on the dynamics of the studied parameters, it is conjectured that the relaxation time of the transitional seismic regime after the emergence of induced seismicity is about 10 years.  相似文献   

5.
The celebrated Boltzmann-Gibbs (BG) entropy, S BG = ?kΣ i p i ln p i , and associated statistical mechanics are essentially based on hypotheses such as ergodicity, i.e., when ensemble averages coincide with time averages. This dynamical simplification occurs in classical systems (and quantum counterparts) whose microscopic evolution is governed by a positive largest Lyapunov exponent (LLE). Under such circumstances, relevant microscopic variables behave, from the probabilistic viewpoint, as (nearly) independent. Many phenomena exist, however, in natural, artificial and social systems (geophysics, astrophysics, biophysics, economics, and others) that violate ergodicity. To cover a (possibly) wide class of such systems, a generalization (nonextensive statistical mechanics) of the BG theory was proposed in 1988. This theory is based on nonadditive entropies such as \(S_q = k\frac{{1 - \sum\nolimits_i {p_i^q } }}{{q - 1}}\left( {S_1 = S_{BG} } \right)\). Here we comment some central aspects of this theory, and briefly review typical predictions, verifications and applications in geophysics and elsewhere, as illustrated through theoretical, experimental, observational, and computational results.  相似文献   

6.
In the present study, the level of the largest earthquake hazard is assessed in 28 seismic zones of the NW Himalaya and its vicinity, which is a highly seismically active region of the world. Gumbel’s third asymptotic distribution (hereafter as GIII) is adopted for the evaluation of the largest earthquake magnitudes in these seismic zones. Instead of taking in account any type of Mmax, in the present study we consider the ω value which is the largest earthquake magnitude that a region can experience according to the GIII statistics. A function of the form Θ(ω, RP6.0) is providing in this way a relatively largest earthquake hazard scale defined by the letter K (K index). The return periods for the ω values (earthquake magnitudes) 6 or larger (RP6.0) are also calculated. According to this index, the investigated seismic zones are classified into five groups and it is shown that seismic zones 3 (Quetta of Pakistan), 11 (Hindukush), 15 (northern Pamirs), and 23 (Kangra, Himachal Pradesh of India) correspond to a “very high” K index which is 6.  相似文献   

7.
We continue applying the general concept of seismic risk analysis in a number of seismic regions worldwide by constructing regional seismic hazard maps based on morphostructural analysis, pattern recognition, and the Unified Scaling Law for Earthquakes (USLE), which generalizes the Gutenberg-Richter relationship making use of naturally fractal distribution of earthquake sources of different size in a seismic region. The USLE stands for an empirical relationship log10N(M, L)?=?A?+?B·(5 – M)?+?C·log10L, where N(M, L) is the expected annual number of earthquakes of a certain magnitude M within a seismically prone area of linear dimension L. We use parameters A, B, and C of USLE to estimate, first, the expected maximum magnitude in a time interval at seismically prone nodes of the morphostructural scheme of the region under study, then map the corresponding expected ground shaking parameters (e.g., peak ground acceleration, PGA, or macro-seismic intensity). After a rigorous verification against the available seismic evidences in the past (usually, the observed instrumental PGA or the historically reported macro-seismic intensity), such a seismic hazard map is used to generate maps of specific earthquake risks for population, cities, and infrastructures (e.g., those based on census of population, buildings inventory). The methodology of seismic hazard and risk assessment is illustrated by application to the territory of Greater Caucasus and Crimea.  相似文献   

8.
Aftershock sequences of some strong earthquakes of Kamchatka, the Kurile Islands, and Japan are examined. Such source parameters as the length L, along-dip width W, motion on fault D, and stress drop Δσ are determined from the aftershock sequences considered. The values of these parameters were obtained by the formal estimation of linear source parameters (lower bound estimates) and visually (upper bound estimates). The correlation dependences of the obtained parameters on the surface wave (M S ) and seismic moment (M W ) magnitudes are calculated.  相似文献   

9.
The time variations in the Gutenberg–Richter b-value are minutely studied based on the data of highly accurate seismological observations at the Garm prognostic site, Tajikistan, where a stationary network of seismic stations of the Complex Seismological Expedition (CSE) of Schmidt Institute of Physics of the Earth (IPE) of the USSR (Russian) Academy of Sciences was in operation from 1955 to 1992. A total of 93035 local earthquakes ranging from 0.0 to 6.3 in the Ml magnitudes are considered. The spatiotemporal fluctuations in the minimal magnitude of completeness of the earthquakes, Mc, are analyzed. The study considers a 25-year interval of the observations at the center of the observation system within which Mc = 0.9. It is shown that in most cases, the b-value and log10E2/3 experience characteristic time variations before the earthquakes with magnitudes higher than the minimal magnitude of the predicted earthquake (MPE). The 6-year anomaly in the parameters’ b-value, log10E2/3, and log10N associated with the single strongest earthquake with M = 6.3 that occurred in the observation region on October 26, 1984 is revealed. The inversely proportional relationship is established between the time variations in the b-value and the time variations in the velocities of seismic waves Vp and Vp/Vs. It is shown that the exponent p in the power function which links the time variations of the b-value and log10E2/3 is higher in the zones of crustal compression than in the zones of extension. It is simultaneously confirmed that the average b-value in the zones of compression is lower than in the zones of extension. It is established that in the case of earthquakes with M ≥ 2.6, the time series of seismic activity log10Ni and the time series of the b-value are highly cross correlated with a coefficient of r ≈ 0.75, whereas in the case of earthquakes with M ≥ 0.9, the coefficient of cross correlation between these time series is close to zero (r ≈ 0.06). The law of variations in the slope of the lines approximating the relationship between the log10Ni time series in the different magnitude ranges (MMci) and b-value time series is obtained. It is hypothesized that the seismic activity of the earthquakes with high magnitudes can be estimated provided that the parameters of the time series of the b-value and time series of the number of earthquakes logNMi) in the range of low magnitudes are known. It is concluded that using the parameter log10N for prognostic estimates of the strong earthquakes only makes sense for earthquakes having moderate and large magnitudes. It is inferred that the time variations in the b-value are predominantly contributed by the time variations of the earthquakes with relatively large magnitudes.  相似文献   

10.
The complex seismotectonic studies of the pleistoseist area of the Ilin-Tas earthquake (Ms = 6.9), one of the strongest seismic events ever recorded by the regional seismic network in northeastern Russia, are carried out. The structural tectonic position, morphotectonic features of present-day topography, active faults, and types of Cenozoic deformations of the epicentral zone are analyzed. The data of the instrumental observations are summarized, and the manifestations of the strong seismic events in the Yana–Indigirka segment of the Cherskii seismotectonic zone are considered. The explanation is suggested for the dynamical tectonic setting responsible for the Andrei-Tas seismic maximum. This setting is created by the influence of the Kolyma–Omolon indenter, which intrudes into the Cherskii seismotectonic zone from the region of the North American lithospheric plate and forms the main seismogenic structures of the Yana–Indigirka segment in the frontal zone (the Ilin-Tas anticlinorium). The highest seismic potential is noted in the Andrei- Tas block—the focus of the main tectonic impacts from the Kolyma–Omolon superterrane. The general trend of this block coincides with the orientation of the major axis of isoseismal ellipses (azimuth 50°–85°), which were determined from the observations of macroseismic effects on the ground after the Uyandina (Ms = 5.6), Andrei-Tas (Ms = 6.1), and Ilin-Tas (Ms = 6.9) earthquakes.  相似文献   

11.
The purpose of this work is to define a seismic regionalization of Mexico for seismic hazard and risk analyses. This seismic regionalization is based on seismic, geologic, and tectonic characteristics. To this end, a seismic catalog was compiled using the more reliable sources available. The catalog was made homogeneous in magnitude in order to avoid the differences in the way this parameter is reported by various agencies. Instead of using a linear regression to converts from m b and M d to M s or M w , using only events for which estimates of both magnitudes are available (i.e., paired data), we used the frequency-magnitude relations relying on the a and b values of the Gutenberg-Richter relation. The seismic regions are divided into three main categories: seismicity associated with the subduction process along the Pacific coast of Mexico, in-slab events within the down-going COC and RIV plates, and crustal seismicity associated to various geologic and tectonic regions. In total, 18 seismic regions were identified and delimited. For each, the a and b values of the Gutenberg-Richter relation were determined using a maximum likelihood estimation. The a and b parameters were repeatedly estimated as a function of time for each region, in order to confirm their reliability and stability. The recurrence times predicted by the resulting Gutenberg-Richter relations obtained are compared with the observed recurrence times of the larger events in each region of both historical and instrumental earthquakes.  相似文献   

12.
Stable isotope paleoaltimetry has provided unprecedented insights into the topographic histories of many of the world’s highest mountain ranges. However, on the Tibetan Plateau (TP), stable isotopes from paleosols generally yield much higher paleoaltitudes than those based on fossils. It is therefore essential when attempting to interpret accurately this region’s paleoaltitudes that the empirical calibrations of local stable isotopes and the relations between them are established. Additionally, it is vital that careful estimations be made when estimate how different isotopes sourced from different areas may have been influenced by different controls. We present here 29 hydrogen isotopic values for leaf wax-derived n-alkanes (i.e., δDwax values, and abundance-weighted average δD values of C29 and C31) in surface soils, as well as the δD values of soil water (δDsw) samples (totaling 22) from Mount Longmen (LM), on the eastern TP (altitude ~0.8–4.0 km above sea level (asl), a region climatically affected by the East Asian Monsoon (EAM). We compared our results with published data from Mount Gongga (GG). In addition, 47 river water samples, 55 spring water samples, and the daily and monthly summer precipitation records (from May to October, 2015) from two precipitation observation stations were collected along the GG transect for δD analysis. LM soil δDwax values showed regional differences and responded strongly to altitude, varying from?160‰ to?219‰, with an altitudinal lapse rate (ALR) of?18‰ km?1 (R 2=0.83; p<0.0001; n=29). These δDwax values appeared more enriched than those from the GG transect by ~40‰. We found that both the climate and moisture sources led to the differences observed in soil δDwax values between the LM and GG transects. We found that, as a general rule, ε wax/rw, ε wax/p and ε wax/sw values (i.e., the isotopic fractionation of δDwax corresponding to δDrw, δDp and δDsw) increased with increasing altitude along both the LM and GG transects (up to 34‰and 50‰, respectively). Basing its research on a comparative study of δDwax, δDp, δDrw(δDspringw) and δDsw, this paper discusses the effects of moisture recycling, glacier-fed meltwater, relative humidity (RH), evapotranspiration (ET), vegetation cover, latitude, topography and/or other factors on ε wax/p values. Clearly, if ε wax-p values at higher altitudes are calculated using smaller ε wax-p values from lower altitudes, the calculated paleowaterδDp values are going to be more depleted than the actual δD values, and any paleoaltitude would therefore be overestimated.  相似文献   

13.
In this study, we aim to improve the scaling between the moment magnitude (M W), local magnitude (M L), and the duration magnitude (M D) for 162 earthquakes in Shillong-Mikir plateau and its adjoining region of northeast India by extending the M W estimates to lower magnitude earthquakes using spectral analysis of P-waves from vertical component seismograms. The M W-M L and M W-M D relationships are determined by linear regression analysis. It is found that, M W values can be considered consistent with M L and M D, within 0.1 and 0.2 magnitude units respectively, in 90 % of the cases. The scaling relationships investigated comply well with similar relationships in other regions in the world and in other seismogenic areas in the northeast India region.  相似文献   

14.
This paper reports a study of the Tolud earthquake sequence; the sequence was a burst of shallow seismicity between November 28 and December 7, 2012; it accompanied the initial phase in the Tolbachik Fissure Eruption of 2012?2013. The largest earthquake (the Tolud earthquake of November 30, 2012, to be referred to as the Tolud Earthquake in what follows, with KS = 11.3, ML = 4.9, MC = 5.4, and MW = 4.8) is one of the five larger seismic events that have been recorded at depths shallower than 10 km beneath the entire Klyuchevskoi Volcanic Cluster in 1961?2015. It was found that the Tolud earthquake sequence was the foreshock–aftershock process of the Tolud Earthquake. This is one of the larger seismicity episodes ever to have occurred in the volcanic areas of Kamchatka. Data of the Kamchatka seismic stations were used to compute some parameters for the Tolud Earthquake and its largest (ML = 4.3) aftershock; the parameters include the source parameters and mechanisms, and the moment magnitudes, since no information on these is available at the world seismological data centers. The focal mechanisms for the Tolud Earthquake and for its aftershock are consistent with seismic ruptures at a tension fault in the rift zone. Instrumental data were used to estimate the intensity of shaking due to the Tolud Earthquake. We discuss the sequence of events that was a signature of the time-dependent seismic and volcanic activity that took place in the Tolbachik zone in late November 2012 and terminated in the Tolud burst of seismicity. Based on the current ideas of the tectonics and magma sources for the Tolbachik volcanic zone, we discuss possible causes of these earthquakes.  相似文献   

15.
Based on the Anapa (ANN) seismic station records of ~40 earthquakes (MW > 3.9) that occurred within ~300 km of the station since 2002 up to the present time, the source parameters and quality factor of the Earth’s crust (Q(f)) and upper mantle are estimated for the S-waves in the 1–8 Hz frequency band. The regional coda analysis techniques which allow separating the effects associated with seismic source (source effects) and with the propagation path of seismic waves (path effects) are employed. The Q-factor estimates are obtained in the form Q(f) = 90 × f 0.7 for the epicentral distances r < 120 km and in the form Q(f) = 90 × f1.0 for r > 120 km. The established Q(f) and source parameters are close to the estimates for Central Japan, which is probably due to the similar tectonic structure of the regions. The shapes of the source parameters are found to be independent of the magnitude of the earthquakes in the magnitude range 3.9–5.6; however, the radiation of the high-frequency components (f > 4–5 Hz) is enhanced with the depth of the source (down to h ~ 60 km). The estimates Q(f) of the quality factor determined from the records by the Sochi, Anapa, and Kislovodsk seismic stations allowed a more accurate determination of the seismic moments and magnitudes of the Caucasian earthquakes. The studies will be continued for obtaining the Q(f) estimates, geometrical spreading functions, and frequency-dependent amplification of seismic waves in the Earth’s crust in the other regions of the Northern Caucasus.  相似文献   

16.
Seismic observations exhibit the presence of abnormal b-values prior to numerous earthquakes. The time interval from the appearance of abnormal b-values to the occurrence of mainshock is called the precursor time. There are two kinds of precursor times in use: the first one denoted by T is the time interval from the moment when the b-value starts to increase from the normal one to the abnormal one to the occurrence time of the forthcoming mainshock, and the second one denoted by T p is the time interval from the moment when the abnormal b-value reaches the peak one to the occurrence time of the forthcoming mainshock. Let T* be the waiting time from the moment when the abnormal b-value returned to the normal one to the occurrence time of the forthcoming mainshock. The precursor time, T (usually in days), has been found to be related to the magnitude, M, of the mainshock expected in a linear form as log(T)?=?q?+?rM where q and r are the coefficient and slope, respectively. In this study, the values of T, T p , and T* of 45 earthquakes with 3?≤?M?≤?9 occurred in various tectonic regions are compiled from or measured from the temporal variations in b-values given in numerous source materials. The relationships of T and T p , respectively, versus M are inferred from compiled data. The difference between the values of T and T p decreases with increasing M. In addition, the plots of T*/T versus M, T* versus T, and T* versus T-T* will be made and related equations between two quantities will be inferred from given data.  相似文献   

17.
A great earthquake of M S=8.1 took place in the west of Kunlun Pass on November 14, 2001. The epicenter is located at 36.2°N and 90.9°E. The analysis shows that some main precursory seismic patterns appear before the great earthquake, e.g., seismic gap, seismic band, increased activity, seismicity quiet and swarm activity. The evolution of the seismic patterns before the earthquake of M S=8.1 exhibits a course very similar to that found for earthquake cases with M S≥7. The difference is that anomalous seismicity before the earthquake of M S=8.1 involves in the larger area coverage and higher seismic magnitude. This provides an evidence for recognizing precursor and forecasting of very large earthquake. Finally, we review the rough prediction of the great earthquake and discuss some problems related to the prediction of great earthquakes.  相似文献   

18.
Results of investigation of the lithosphere in the Kamchatka seismic focal zone from dynamic characteristics of earthquake records obtained at regional stations are presented. It is assumed that the specificity of the source zone can be estimated by the relation Cr = K P ? bK S ? c characterizing relative energies (energy classes, according to [Fedotov, 1972]) of short period transverse and longitudinal waves in the source. Azimuthal, spatial, and temporal variations in Cr and their relation to focal mechanisms are examined. Spatiotemporal variations in this parameter are shown to be caused by the influence of variations in the conditions in the source zone (its substance or process) on the radiation of P and S waves.  相似文献   

19.
The results of eddy covariance observation system could represent the physical process at certain area of the surface. Thus point-to-area representativeness was of primary interest in flux observation. This research presents a preliminary study for flux observation at ChinaFLUX sites by the use of observation data and Flux Source Area Model (FSAM). Results show that the footprint expands and is further away from flux tower when atmosphere becomes more stable, the observation height increases, or the surfaces become smoother. This suggests that the area represented by the flux observation becomes larger. The distances from the reference point to the maximum point S max and the minimum point x 1 of source weight function (D max and D min, respectively) can be influenced by atmosphere stability which becomes longer when atmosphere is more stable. For more rough surfaces and lower observation point D max and D min become shorter. This research gives the footprint at level P=90% at ChinaFLUX sites at different atmosphere stability. The preliminary results of spatial representiveness at ChinaFLUX sites were given based on the dominant wind direction and footprint response to various factors. The study also provides some theoretical basis for data quality control and evaluating data uncertainty.  相似文献   

20.
A spectral analysis of simultaneous diurnal variations in the E z component of the quasi-static electric field in the near-Earth atmosphere, VLF radio noise, and the horizontal component of the geomagnetic field, observed at Kamchatka in September 1999, has been performed. These geophysical parameters are indirectly used to study wave processes in the near-Earth atmosphere and in the ionospheric D and dynamo regions within the band of periods of internal gravity waves (T = 0.5?3.5 h). The correlation method in the frequency region is used to analyze the interrelation between the wave processes in these atmospheric regions. The power cross-spectra of various pairs of geophysical parameters have been studied depending on meteorological, seismic, and geomagnetic activities. It is shown that the oscillations in the power spectra in the T ~ 1–1.5 h band of periods are caused by the sources of internal gravity waves in the near-Earth atmosphere and by the remote sources above the dynamo region of the ionosphere within the T ~ 1.5–3 h band of periods.  相似文献   

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