Seismic Activity and Structures of the Crust and Upper Mantle in the Areas of Source Zones of the Largest Earthquakes in the Altai–Sayan Region

The results of studies of the shear wave attenuation field in source zones of the 2003 Chuya, 1970 Ureg-Nur, 1991 Busingol, 2011 Sayan, and 2011–2012 Tuva earthquakes are presented. Attenuation fields in these source zones include blocks with a high Q-factor and linear weakened zones. The surface ruptures from the mainshocks of the 2003 Chuya and 2011–2012 Tuva earthquakes are located in the zones of strong attenuation. Epicenters of the mainshocks are located where the maximum contrast in attenuation is observed. In the source zones of large earthquakes in the Altai–Sayan region or near them, the zones similar to so-called seimogenic bodies described in the literature are found. These objects tend to linear zones with high attenuation and are characterized by an increased density of deepened earthquakes and also by deformations of near-vertical elongation. The obtained data suggest that the fluid factor could play certain role in the occurrence of large earthquakes in the Altai–Sayan region.     

Generalization of the results of long-term strainmeter and GPS observations for intraplate regions

The measurements of contemporary deformations in Asia in the region of active seismic processes stretching from Northern Tien Shan through Altai and Sayan Mountains to Lake Baikal have been carried out for a few decades by strainmeters and tiltmeters. Recently, these works were expanded by the network measurements by the methods of space geodesy. Studying the contemporary displacements and deformations of the Earth’s crust is necessary for solving various problems on a wide range of spatial and time scales from exploring the contemporary deformations of the tectonic plates and present-day seismicity to estimating the man-made loads on the geological medium. The measurements of the deformations are conducted by different methods with short and long baselines, on the surface and at different depths. Based on the obtained data, it is possible to analyze the strain rates at different frequencies and to compare them with the level of seismic activity in the region. In recent decades, the seismic zone located in the south of the Siberian platforms experienced a few strong (M = 6.3–7.5) earthquakes, during which the deformation and displacement fields were captured. South of this region, the displacement fields during the earthquakes with the magnitude above 8 were recorded by the space geodetic methods in China. By excluding the coseismic effects, one can estimate the tectonic component of the displacements and deformations.     

Major earthquakes of the southern Gornyi Altai in the Holocene

The paper describes geological and geomorphological features of ancient major earthquakes that occurred in the Holocene in the zone of the Altai earthquake of September 27, 2003 (southern Gornyi Altai). Fossil earthquakes occurred in the regions of the Northern and Southern Chuya ridges and Chuya and Kurai basins; their sources reached the surface and formed systems of coseismic ruptures oriented SE-NW or E-W. Secondary (gravitational and vibrational) paleoseismic deformations were represented by rockfalls, landslides, and gryphons in near-field zones of these paleoevents. They were spread in an area of about 2000–2500 km² coinciding, on the whole, with the position of source zones. Paleoseismogeological investigations showed that, apart from earthquakes of the 20th and 21st centuries, eight seismic events with magnitudes M = 7.0–8.0 occurred in the region over the last 8500 years. Ancient strong earthquakes that produced the observed paleoseismic ruptures occurred approximately 230–300, 1000, 1700, 2300, 3500, 4500, 5200, and 8500 years ago. Therefore, the recurrence interval averaged 1400 yr for earthquakes with a magnitude of about 7.0 and 2100 yr for events with a magnitude of about 7.5.     

川滇交界东段昭通、莲峰断裂带的地震危险背景

川滇交界东段NE向昭通、莲峰断裂带的研究程度较低.为了了解该断裂带是否存在发生强震/大地震的危险背景,我们基于区域活动构造与动力学、重新定位的小震分布和震源机制解、历史地震破裂区、GPS形变场、现代地震活动及其参数图像等多学科的信息进行综合研究.结果表明:昭通、莲峰断裂带是川滇-华南活动块体/地块边界带的一部分,也是活动及变形的大凉山次级块体与相对稳定的华南地块之间的边界带;结构上表现为2个平行展布、朝南东推覆的断裂带,现今运动为带有显著逆冲分量的右旋走滑性质.沿昭通断裂带无大地震的时间至少为1700 余年,目前存在地震空区.GPS变形图像反映昭通、莲峰断裂带已不同程度闭锁.另外,昭通断裂带的鲁甸附近以及莲峰断裂带的南段分别存在异常低b值区或高应力区.已由低b值区和小震空白区识别出昭通断裂带上的鲁甸-彝良之间存在高应力闭锁段,并估计出其潜在地震的最大矩震级为M_W7.4.本研究因此认为昭通断裂带存在发生强震/大地震的中-长期危险背景, 而莲峰断裂带的危险性还需进一步研究.     

Gravity and Displacement Variations in the Areas of Strong Earthquakes in the East of Russia

The modern gravimetry methods are capable of measuring gravity with an accuracy of up to 10^–10 of the normal value, which is commensurate with the accuracy of the up-to-date methods of displacement measurements by satellite geodesy. Significant changes, e.g., in the coseismic displacements of the Earth’s surface are recorded in the zones of large earthquakes. These changes should manifest themselves in the variations of gravity. Absolute measurements have been conducted by various modifications of absolute ballistic gravimeters GABL since the mid-1970s at the Klyuchi point (Novosibirsk) in the south of the West Siberian plate. Monitoring observations have been taking place in the seismically active regions since the 1990s. In this paper we consider the results of the long-term measurements of the variations in gravity and recent crustal displacements for different types of earthquakes (the zones of shear, extension, and compression). In the seismically active areas in the east of Russia, the longest annual series of absolute measurements starting from 1992 was recorded in the southeastern segment of Baikal region. In this area, the Kultuk earthquake with magnitude 6.5 occurred on August 27, 2008, at a distance of 25 km from the observation point of the Talaya seismic station. The measurements in Gornyi (Mountainous) Altai have been conducted since 2000. A strikeslip earthquake with magnitude 7.5 took place in the southern segment of the region on September 27, 2003. The effects of the catastrophic M = 9.0 Tohoku, Japan, earthquake of March 11, 2011 were identified in Primor’e in the far zone of the event. The empirical data are consistent with the results of modeling based on the seismological data. The coseismic variations in gravity are caused by the combined effect of the changes in the elevation of the observation point and crustal deformation.     

Study on Potential Strong Earthquake Risks Around the Mabian Area,Southern Sichuan

Based on seismic data from the regional network for the last 34 years,we analyzed the present fault behavior of major fault zones around the Mabian area,southern Sichuan,and identified the risky fault-segments for potential strong and large earthquakes in the future.The method of analysis is a combination of spatial distribution of b-values with activity background of historical strong earthquakes and current seismicity.Our results mainly show:(1) The spatial distribution of b-values indicates significant heterogeneity in the studied area,which reflects the spatial difference of cumulative stress levels along various fault zones and segments.(2) Three anomalously low b-value areas with different dimensions were identified along the Mabian-Yanjin fault zone.These anomalies can be asperities under relatively high cumulated stress levels.Two asperities are located in the north of Mabian county,in Lidian town in western Muchuan county,and near Yanjin at the south end of the fault zone.These two areas represent potential large earthquake seismogenic sites around the Mabian area in the near future.Besides them,the third relatively smaller asperity is identified at southern Suijiang,as another potential strongearthquake source.(3) An asperity along the southwestern segment of the Longquanshan fault zone indicates the site of potential moderate-to-strong earthquakes.(4) The asperity along the segment between Huangmu town in Hanyuan county and Longchi town in Emeishan city on Jinkouhe-Meigu fault has potential for a moderate-strong earthquake.     

The nature of magnetic anomalies in subduction zones

The analysis of the magnetic survey data suggests the presence of a frontal zone of intense magnetic anomalies in a number of the Pacific island-arc systems. These zones with amplitudes of 100–300 nT are observed within the Kuril–Kamchatka and Aleutian island arc systems, in Southern and Central America, and Alaska. As demonstrated by the solution of the inverse problem and petromagnetic investigation of the rocks, these zones are presumably related to the serpentinite bodies which form as a result of the hydration of the upper mantle peridotites by the oceanic water penetrating through a system of cracks and fractures into the subducting slab at its bend. The rock magnetic studies show that magnetite is the main carrier of magnetization in these serpentinite bodies. Hydration of the subducting slab also causes hydration of the mantle rocks of the overriding plate with the formation of the magnetized serpentinite wedge. The decompaction of ultrabasic rocks under hydration is marked by a decrease in the gravity field and velocities of elastic waves. As the subducting plate loses water, it becomes embrittled and becomes the localization region for the epicenters of the strongest earthquakes. Magnetic survey can be used for revealing the potential sources of catastrophic earthquakes.     

The characteristics of the shear-wave attenuation field in the Altai lithosphere and their relationship to seismicity

The short-period S-wave attenuation field has been mapped for the lithosphere of the Altai and adjacent areas in Mongolia and southern Siberia. A total of approximately 500 earthquake seismograms were used. These were recorded at the Makanchi and Ulan-Bator stations at distances of ~300–1900 km. It is shown that the attenuation of shear waves is much stronger in the west of the area of study compared with the east. A V-shaped band of high attenuation in the upper mantle has been identified in the west of the area where the epicenters of the magnitude 6.9 1990 Zaisan and the magnitude 7.3 2003 Chuya earthquakes were situated; a similar band extends northwestward to the west of Lake Ubsu Nur. The attenuation is comparatively low in the rupture zones of large (М ≥ 7.0) pre-1970 earthquakes. It was concluded that fluid-charged zones are formed in the lithosphere prior to large earthquakes in the Altai, as well as in other areas of Central Asia. Following large seismic events, the fluids were rising into the crust from the upper mantle during a few tens of years, thus reducing the attenuation of Sn waves. We have identified zones of high attenuation with no significant earthquakes being recorded there during historical time. It is our opinion that earthquake precursory processes may be occurring in these zones.     

EARTHQUAKE LOCATION AND VELOCITY STRUCTURE IN YIBIN AREA,SICHUAN

Small earthquakes have been recorded in Yibin area, Sichuan Province since 1970, the frequency and intensity of seismicity have shown an increasing trend in recent ten years, and the earthquakes are distributed mainly in Changning, Gongxian and Junlian areas. Based on the seismic data from January 2008 to May 2015 recorded by Sichuan and Yunnan regional networks and Yibin local network, seismicity analysis, precise location and velocity structure inversion for earthquakes in Yibin area are carried out, the three-dimensional spatial distribution of seismic activity and the velocity structure at different depths in this region are investigated, trying to analyze the seismic activity law and seismogenic mechanism in Yibin area. The earthquake relocation result shows that the spatial cluster distribution of earthquakes is more obvious in Yinbin area, the earthquakes are concentrated in Changning-Gongxian and Gongxian-Junlian regions. The seismic activity presents two dominant directions of NW and NE in Changning-Gongxian region, and shows asymmetric conjugate distribution, the long axes of NW-trending and NE-trending seismic concentration area are about 30km and 12km respectively, and the short axes are about 5km. There is a seismic sparse segment near Gongxian, the frequency and intensity of seismicity in the southeast side are obviously higher than that in the northwest side, and the earthquakes with larger magnitude are relatively deep, the focal depth is gradually shallower with the distance away from Gongxian. Seismic activity is sparse in the west and dense in the east in Gongxian-Junlian region, the predominant direction of earthquakes in the seismic dense area of the eastern segment is NE. Seismic activity extends in opposite direction in the easternmost part of the two earthquake concentrated area. The P-wave velocity structure at different depths in the study area is obtained using joint inversion method of source and velocity structure. In view of the predominant focal depth in this region, this paper mainly analyzes the velocity structure of the upper crust within 10km. Within this study area, the P-wave velocity of earthquake concentration areas is relatively high within 10km of the predominant focal depth, especially in the northwest of Gongxian and eastern Junlian area, the P-wave velocity on the southeast of Gongxian increases gradually with depth, especially at 6km depth. These high-velocity zones are generally related to brittle and hard rocks, where the stress is often concentrated. Comparing earthquake distribution and velocity structure, seismic activity in this area mainly occurs in high-low velocity transition areas, the inhomogeneity of velocity structure may be one of the factors controlling earthquake distribution. The transition zone of high and low velocity anomalies is not only the place where stress concentrates, but also the place where the medium is relatively fragile, such environment has the medium condition of accumulating a large amount of strain energy and is prone to fracture and release stress.     

Earthquake Forecasting in Diverse Tectonic Zones of the Globe

We present a simple method for long- and short-term earthquake forecasting (estimating earthquake rate per unit area, time, and magnitude). For illustration we apply the method to the Pacific plate boundary region and the Mediterranean area surrounding Italy and Greece. Our ultimate goal is to develop forecasting and testing methods to validate or falsify common assumptions regarding earthquake potential. Our immediate purpose is to extend the forecasts we made starting in 1999 for the northwest and southwest Pacific to include somewhat smaller earthquakes and then adapt the methods to apply in other areas. The previous forecasts used the CMT earthquake catalog to forecast magnitude 5.8 and larger earthquakes. Like our previous forecasts, the new ones here are based on smoothed maps of past seismicity and assume spatial clustering. Our short-term forecasts also assume temporal clustering. An important adaptation in the new forecasts is to abandon the use of tensor focal mechanisms. This permits use of earthquake catalogs that reliably report many smaller quakes with no such mechanism estimates. The result is that we can forecast earthquakes at higher spatial resolution and down to a magnitude threshold of 4.7. The new forecasts can be tested far more quickly because smaller events are considerably more frequent. Also, our previous method used the focal mechanisms of past earthquakes to estimate the preferred directions of earthquake clustering, however the method made assumptions that generally hold in subduction zones only. The new approach escapes those assumptions. In the northwest Pacific the new method gives estimated earthquake rate density very similar to that of the previous forecast.     

由地震活动参数分析龙门山-岷山断裂带的现今活动习性与强震危险性

根据最近28年的区域台网地震资料,利用b值空间分布及断裂带分段的多地震活动参数值的组合方法,结合历史强震背景,分析了沿川北龙门山-岷山断裂带不同断裂段的现今活动习性,并初步判别出了潜在的强震危险段落。研究结果表明:龙门山断裂带中-南段存在6个具有不同现今活动习性的段落,其中,绵竹-茂县段处于相对高应力背景下的频繁中-小震活动状态,被认为是龙门山断裂带上未来最可能发生强震的地段;江油-平武段处于相对高应力背景下的稀疏中-小震活动状态,未来有可能发生中强地震。而岷山断裂带中的岷江断裂段和虎牙断裂段,以及叠溪隐伏逆断层地区均具有相对偏低的应力水平,可能与其不久前分别发生过大地震和强震有关,未来不太长的时期内复发大地震的可能性较小。     

Crustal velocity,density structure,and seismogenic environment in the southern segment of the North-South Seismic Belt,China

The southern segment of the North-South Seismic Belt in China is a critical region for earthquake preparedness and risk reduction efforts. However, limited by the low density of seismic stations and the use of single-parameter physical structural models, the deep tectonic features and seismogenic environment in this area remain controversial. Thus, a comprehensive analysis based on high-resolution crustal structures and multiple physical parameters is required. In this study, we applied the ambient noise tomography method to obtain the three-dimensional (3D) crustal S-wave velocity structure using continuous waveform data from 112 permanent stations and 350 densely distributed temporary stations in the southern segment of the North-South Seismic Belt. Then, we obtained the high-resolution 3D density structure through wavenumber-domain 3D gravity imaging constrained by the velocity structure. The low-velocity and low-density anomalies in the upper crust of the study area were mainly distributed in the Sichuan Basin and around Dali and Simao, while the high-velocity and high-density anomalies were primarily distributed in the Panxi region, corresponding to the surface geological features. Two prominent low-velocity and low-density anomalies were observed in the middle and lower crust: one to the west of the Songpan-Garzê block and Sichuan-Yunnan diamond-shaped block, and the other near the Anninghe-Xiaojiang fault. Combined with the spatial distribution of seismic events in the study area, we found that previous earthquakes predominantly occurred in the transition zones between high and low anomaly regions and in the low-velocity and low-density zones in the upper crust. In contrast, moderate-to-strong earthquakes mainly occurred within the transition zones between high and low anomaly regions and close to the high-velocity and high-density regions, often with low-velocity and low-density layers below their hypocenters. Fluids play a critical role in the seismogenic process by reducing fault strength and destabilizing the stress state, which may be a triggering factor for earthquakes in the study area. Additionally, the upwelling of molten materials from the mantle may lead to energy accumulation and stress concentration, providing an important seismogenic background for moderate-to-strong earthquakes in this area.     

台湾地区地震的空间关联维特征与构造环境研究

采用关联维方法对台湾地区地震活动的空间特征进行了研究。先利用 10 0a来台湾的地震目录计算各个地震区、带的关联维数 ,将地震空间分布的分形特征定量表达出来 ,然后综合分析地震空间分布的关联维数和孕震构造环境之间的关系 ,得出了以下结论 :1)台湾东、西部地震区由于地震属于不同的大地构造单元 ,因此关联维数有较大的差异 ;2 )在各地震区内部的各个地震带由于板块构造、地壳结构、活断层分布上的差异 ,而具有与其构造特征相对应的关联维数 ;3)各地震带内部的各个不同的部位又由于不同的构造应力场 ,而导致地震分布上出现不同的丛集性 ,表现为不同的关联维数。这些结论充分说明通过关联维分析所得到的地震活动的空间图像与地震活动所代表的不同地质构造背景有着良好的对应关系     

六盘山断裂带的地震构造特征与强震危险背景

集成活动构造与震源机制解、重新定位小震分布、历史与现今地震、GPS速度场等资料,综合分析了六盘山断裂带的构造动力学条件与变形方式、横剖面构造、历史强震破裂背景、GPS形变以及现代地震活动性,进而探讨了该断裂带的强震危险背景.结果表明：NNW向六盘山断裂带的运动与变形主要缘于青藏地块东北缘的向东水平挤出受到相对稳定的华北地块西缘（鄂尔多斯地块）阻挡而聚集的水平挤压作用;此外,海原和陇县-宝鸡两条NW向走滑断裂带的左旋运动在右阶区的局部会聚作用,也由六盘山断裂带的变形与运动来承受与转换.横剖面上,六盘山断裂带表现为向东推覆的大型逆冲构造带,主滑脱带位于~25 km深处,之下很可能存在分隔青藏与华北地块的超壳-岩石圈型深断裂带.沿六盘山断裂带中-南段以及更靠南东的陇县-宝鸡断裂带存在总长为120~140 km、至少最近~1400年未发生M ≥ 6½强震破裂的地震空区.地震空区内的断裂,GPS形变显示已有显著应变积累,地震活动上出现为小震稀疏或空缺的部位,以及低b值区,反映那里的断面业已闭锁,并已有高应力积累.因此,六盘山断裂带中-南段和陇县-宝鸡断裂带应是未来可能发生强震/大地震的两个危险地段,潜在地震的最大矩震级估值分别为M_W=7.3±和7.2±.     

Comparison of seismotectonic peculiarities of Altai Mountains and Mongolian Altai

The paleoseismogeological studies within the two representative segments of fold systems in the Altai mobile belt (Altai Mountains and Mongolian Altai) have been carried out. These studies revealed the primary seismodislocations (seismic ruptures) of both the ancient historic and prehistoric strongest earthquakes. Based on amplitudes of single displacements (reverse fault and normal fault motions were 0.5–1.6 m) and with the significant strike slip component (more than 1.5 m) taken into account, the magnitude of ancient events in the Altai Mountains was determined at approximately 7.5. The recurrence period is 1400 years on average for the M = 7.0 events and 2100 years for the M = 7.5 ones. In the western Mongolian Altai, reverse fault motions were up to 2 m, corresponding to an earthquake magnitude of about 8.0 (an analog with the 1931 Fuyun earthquake). The recurrence period for the strongest earthquakes in Mongolian Altai was longer than that for the Altai Mountains, about 3000 years. This can be explained by higher magnitude values for western Mongolian Altai. It also can be concluded that the seismic regimes of the Altai Mountains and Mongolian Altai remained almost unchanged during the entire Holocene.     

COULOMB STRESS EVOLUTION AND SEISMIC HAZARD ALONG THE EASTERN BOUNDARY OF THE SICHUAN-YUNNAN BLOCK

Using a more realistic model of multi-layered viscoelastic media, and considering the effects of the coseismic dislocation and the postseismic viscoelastic relaxation caused by the 34 great earthquakes occurring along the eastern boundary of the Sichuan-Yunnan block since 1480 and the interseismic stress accumulation caused by the tectonic loading generated by plate motions which were modeled by introducing "virtual negative displacements" along the major fault segment in the region under study, we calculated the evolution of the Coulomb stress change in each fault plane of 18 major fault segments along the eastern boundary caused by the coseismic, postseismic and interseismic effects. We studied the interactions of the Xianshuihe, Anninghe, Zemuhe and Xiaojiang fault zones on the eastern boundary of the Sichuan-Yunnan block. By evaluating if the previous earthquake could bring another earthquake closer to or farther from failure, we analyzed the interactions of the earthquakes which occurred in the different segments in the same fault zone, or in the different fault zones respectively. And further based on the calculation results of the Coulomb stress change on the fault planes, we analyzed the seismic hazard of each fault segment.The results show that the previous earthquake may trigger another earthquake which can occur in the same fault zone or in the different fault zone. And the calculation results on the evolution of the cumulative Coulomb stress change in the each fault segment show that, the Coulomb stress increases significantly in the middle section and the Moxi segment of the Xianshuihe fault zone, the Mianning-Xichang segment of the Anninghe fault zone, the Qiaojia-dongchuan segment and the Jianshui segment of the Xiaojiang fault zone, and the seismic hazard in these fault segments is worthy paying attention to.     

川滇地块东边界中南段构造应力分布特征与历史强震活动关系的数值模拟

本文以构造应力场观测结果、 岩石圈流变特性为约束, 采用摩擦接触单元反映断裂带空间分段特征, 以最接近真实地下环境的非线性黏弹性材料为模型的本构关系, 建立包括安宁河—则木河—小江断裂带的三维有限元模型, 模拟在速度边界条件和重力势能等动力因素共同作用下的断裂带应力分布特性. 研究结果表明, 模拟得到的断裂带现今构造应力场与地震活动有明显的对应关系, 应力比较集中的区域, 如石棉、 西昌、 巧家、 东川附近, 极有可能是未来的地震危险区域.      

Regularities in the time variations of seismic parameters and their implications for prediction of strong earthquakes in Greece

Time variations in the parameters of seismic activity in two regions in Greece, which are known to have different geodynamical conditions, are analyzed using the FastBEE algorithm suggested in (Papadopoulos and Baskoutas, 2009). The study is based on the data on weak earthquakes that occurred in two local regions. One region pertains to the zone dominated by intensive compression stress field, while another is located in the region of a relatively lower intensity extension stress field. It is shown that in the zone of compression the seismic parameters exhibit anomalous temporal behavior before strong earthquakes with Ms ≥ 5.7, whereas in the zones of extension, similar anomalies precede earthquakes with lower magnitudes of up to Ms ≥ 4.9. The most informative parameters for the purposes of predicting strong seismic events are the released seismic energy in the form logE ^2/3 and the slope of the frequency-magnitude dependence, b-value. The seismic activity in the region, expressed in terms of the logarithmic number of earthquakes, per unit time in some cases does not exhibit any particular pattern of behavior before strong earthquakes. In the time series of the studied parameters, four stages in the seismic process are clearly distinguished before strong earthquakes. Typically, a strong earthquake has a low probability to occur within the first two stages. Instead, this probability arises at stage III and attains its maximum at the end of this stage coinciding with the occurrence of the strong earthquake. We suggest these features of the time series to be used for the assessment of seismic hazard and for the real-time prediction of strong earthquakes. The time variations in the b-value are found to be correlated with the time variations inlogE ^2/3. This correlation is closely approximated by the power-law function. The parameters of this function depend on the geodynamical features of the region and characterize the intensity and the type of the regional tectonic stresses. The results of our study show that the FastBEE algorithm can be successfully applied for monitoring seismic hazard and predicting strong earthquakes.     

日本东北地区双震带高精度重定位研究

日本所在的西太平洋地区是世界上中深源地震发生最为频繁的地区. 早期研究已表明, 日本东北地区下方的中深源地震呈双层分布. 为进一步分析该双震带的空间分布特征, 本文通过方法测试证明了采用球坐标系下的三维射线追踪法改进后的双差定位法进行地震重定位的精确性和有效性, 对使用该方法进行重定位前、 后各方向上的误差进行了分析, 并确定了最佳的定位参数. 在此基础上, 对日本东北地区的中深源地震进行了高精度重定位, 并对重定位得到的震源位置进行了空间拟合, 其结果表明地震呈明显的双层分布, 且与西太平洋俯冲板块几近平行. 本文研究结果对揭示双震带中地震的发震机理以及俯冲板块内的精细结构均具有重要意义.