On the solution stability in the problem of determining the time variations of the tidal responses of a medium in the vicinity of the sources of severe earthquakes

In (Molodenskii M.S. et al., 2016), the data from horizontal pendulums recording the tilts in the closest vicinity of the Great Tohoku earthquake of March 11, 2011 in Japan were analyzed. A significantly improved method for statistical analysis of the observational data enabled the authors to reveal a slow growth in tidal tilts during a period of six years before the earthquake, which was superseded by an instantaneous drop in the amplitudes at the time of the earthquake. After this, during the subsequent four years, the tidal amplitudes have remained at a significantly lower level than their average values before the earthquake. These changes in tidal amplitudes testify to the nonlinear character of the tidal response of the medium in the presence of large tectonic stresses: as is well known, the linear relationship between stresses and strains in a real medium is only the case for stresses that are far below the yield stress. When the stresses approach the failure limit, two counteracting effects come into play: (1) the shear moduli in some areas decrease as a result of the avalanche growth of the crack formation processes, and (2) the moduli increase due to the compression in the other areas. Irrespective of which particular effect of these two is predominant, in either case the linearity of the relationship between the stresses and strains should be violated. This violation cannot but affect the amplitudes of the tidal tilts and strains characterizing this relationship in the presence of fairly low additional tidal stresses (i.e., the derivative of the off-diagonal stress tensor components with respect to the same components of the strain tensor). Since there is presently a sufficiently dense network of the horizontal pendulums recording the tilts (the global IRIS network and the particularly dense F-NET network in Japan), monitoring the changes in the amplitudes of tidal tilts can be considered as a key instrument for capturing the signs of the approach of tectonic stresses to their critical values. The increase in tidal amplitudes before the Tohoku earthquake and their drop at the moment of the earthquake, which were revealed by us, as well as the constancy of the amplitudes during four years after the event, unambiguously indicate that the accumulation of tectonic stresses caused the growth in tidal amplitudes, whereas the stress release by the earthquake caused their diminution. This does not however mean that stress accumulation is accompanied by a decrease in the elastic moduli and that the release of stresses is accompanied by the growth of elastic moduli all over the source area. As was shown in (Molodenskii M.S. et al., 2012), even in the simplest model of spatially homogeneous variations of elastic modules, the variations in tidal tilts are an odd function of the distance from the epicenter. Therefore, irrespective of whether the elastic moduli decrease or increase, the amplitudes of tidal tilts should decrease in some areas and increase in other areas. Hence, the very fact of the growth of tidal tilt amplitudes with time cannot be considered as a sign of the growth of tectonic stresses. To be positive about the latter, one should make sure that the consistent (unidirectional) changes have been observed during a sufficiently long time interval and that their magnitudes were significantly larger than the measurement errors. Hence, it is important to reliably estimate the errors of the observational data.     

Tectonic stress accumulation in the region of the Kuril–Kamchatka Island Arc system

The time variations in the tidal response of the medium in 2011–2015 according to the measurements at the global seismographic network (GSN) in Kamchatka are considered. Based on the data from the horizontal pendulums recording the eastward tilts at the station, it is established that there was a linear growth in the tidal tilt amplitudes up to May 24, 2013 due to the changes in the elastic moduli caused by tectonic stress accumulation. The growth phase was followed by the decline in the tidal tilt amplitudes induced by the release of stresses after the Sea-of-Okhotsk earthquake.     

Temporal variations in the tidal response of the medium in the vicinities of the sources of catastrophic earthquakes

The idea of predicting earthquakes by continuously monitoring temporal variations in the tidal response of the medium was suggested by Beaumont and Berger in 1974. However, it became possible to implement the idea only recently. This possibility has arisen due to the deployment of Global Seismic Network (GSN), which collects the data on tidal tilts and gravity in the epicenters of strong earthquakes before and after the strongest events. In this paper, we present the results of model analytical and numerical calculations of the elastic displacements of the Earth’s surface caused by the earthquakes and their preparatory processes. The analytical calculations are limited to the model of a uniform elastic halfspace; the numerical calculations, in addition to this model, also cover the models with radially heterogeneous distributions of elastic moduli in the crust and in the upper mantle, which are determined by the PREM model. We describe the results of modeling temporal variations in the tidal response of the medium in the vicinity of the source of a catastrophic earthquake. The model of seismic source is specified by the length and the orientations of the fault plane and by the value of the discontinuity in the tangential component of the displacement vector on the opposite sides of the fault. The model is based on the GPS data on the horizontal and vertical displacements of the Earth’s surface. We suggest the method for determining temporal changes in the tidal response of the medium in the seismically active regions. This method improves the sensitivity and time resolution of the standard techniques of sliding-window analysis by more than an order of magnitude. The comparative analysis of temporal variations in the tidal response of the medium in the zones of the magnitude 9 earthquake in Japan (March 9, 2011) illustrates the described approach.

     

Temporal variations in the tidal response of the medium in the vicinities of the sources of catastrophic earthquakes

The idea of predicting earthquakes by continuously monitoring temporal variations in the tidal response of the medium was suggested by Beaumont and Berger in 1974. However, it became possible to implement the idea only recently. This possibility has arisen due to the deployment of Global Seismic Network (GSN), which collects the data on tidal tilts and gravity in the epicenters of strong earthquakes before and after the strongest events. In this paper, we present the results of model analytical and numerical calculations of the elastic displacements of the Earth??s surface caused by the earthquakes and their preparatory processes. The analytical calculations are limited to the model of a uniform elastic halfspace; the numerical calculations, in addition to this model, also cover the models with radially heterogeneous distributions of elastic moduli in the crust and in the upper mantle, which are determined by the PREM model. We describe the results of modeling temporal variations in the tidal response of the medium in the vicinity of the source of a catastrophic earthquake. The model of seismic source is specified by the length and the orientations of the fault plane and by the value of the discontinuity in the tangential component of the displacement vector on the opposite sides of the fault. The model is based on the GPS data on the horizontal and vertical displacements of the Earth??s surface. We suggest the method for determining temporal changes in the tidal response of the medium in the seismically active regions. This method improves the sensitivity and time resolution of the standard techniques of sliding-window analysis by more than an order of magnitude. The comparative analysis of temporal variations in the tidal response of the medium in the zones of the magnitude 9 earthquake in Japan (March 9, 2011) illustrates the described approach.     

Two-dimensional models of elastic tides in a horizontally heterogeneous medium

The possibility of determining local horizontal inhomogeneities of the shear and bulk moduli from data on amplitudes and phases of tidal tilts and strains is considered. Simple analytical formulas determining the sought effects are derived by the perturbation method, and their numerical estimates are determined for the simplest 2-D models. It is shown that relative variations in the shear and bulk moduli affect not only the amplitudes and phases of variations in tidal parameters but also the shape of curves of tidal amplitude anomalies versus the horizontal coordinate. Given adequate spatial resolution, this can significantly facilitate the elastic moduli inversion from tidal data.     

Changes in the tidal response of the medium before strong earthquakes

The idea of Beaumont and Berger [Beaumont and Berger, 1974] about the possibility of earthquake prediction by means of continuous monitoring of temporal changes in tidal response was able to achieve effective application only in recent years after the appearance of GPS-data on the Earth’s surface displacement field in the seismic regions and the Global Seismographic Network (GSN), containing tidal, tiltmetric, and gravimetric data of measurements in the epicentral areas. The results of statistical analysis of the tidal response of the medium in the vicinity of the epicenters of the earthquakes in Peru (2001), in Sumatra (2004), and in Chile (2010) are presented.     

宁夏,内蒙古交界地区三次中强地震前多种潮汐响应异常及其解释

1991年发生在宁夏北部与内蒙古交界处地震重点监视区内三次中强地震前,宁夏北部前兆台网观测到了倾斜、重力、井水位潮汐响应的异常变化。从扩容模式出发,通过对小震应力降、Q值、波速比以及潮汐响应的综合分析,对多种潮汐响应的时空特征做了初步分析和解释。     

Lunar–solar tide effects in the Earth’s crust and atmosphere

The gravitational interaction in the Earth–Moon–Sun system is considered from the standpoint of influencing the formation of time variations in the geophysical fields and some natural processes. The analysis of the results of instrumental observations revealed the main periodicities and cycles in the time variations of subsoil radon volumetric activity with the same periods as the vertical component of the variations of the tidal force. The amplitude modulation of seismic noise by the lunar-solar tide is demonstrated. It is shown that the intensity of relaxation processes in the Earth’s crust has a near-diurnal periodicity, whereas the spectrum of groundwater level fluctuations includes clearly expressed tidal waves. Based on the data on the tilts of the Earth’s surface, the role of tidal deformation in the formation of the block motions in the Earth’s crust is analyzed. A new approach is suggested for identifying tidal waves in the atmosphere by analyzing micropulsations of the atmospheric pressure with the use of adaptive rejection filters.     

On the possibilities of determination of small changes in the tidal response of the medium at short time intervals

We propose the method for determining temporal changes in the tidal response of the medium in active seismic areas. This method allows one to increase the sensitivity and time resolution of the standard moving average spectral method for more than an order of magnitude. In addition, this work presents the results of comparative analysis of temporal changes in the tidal response of the medium in space-time in the vicinity of the 9-magnitude earthquake in Japan that occurred on March 11, 2011.     

Multi‐depth monitoring of electrical conductivity and temperature of groundwater at a multilayered coastal aquifer: Jeju Island,Korea

To supplement conventional geophysical log data, this study presents temporal variations in electrical conductivity (EC) and temperature with depth in a multilayered coastal aquifer, on the eastern part of Jeju Island, Korea. One‐month time‐series data obtained at eight points from a multi‐depth monitoring system showed that semidiurnal and semimonthly tidal variations induced dynamic fluctuations in EC and temperature. At some depths, EC ranged from 1483 to 26 822 µS cm^?1, while some points showed no significant variations. The results of EC log and time‐series data revealed that a sharp fresh‐saltwater interface occurred at low tide, but the diffusion zone broadened to 20 m at high tide. EC, temperature, and tide level data were used for the cross‐correlation analysis. The response time of EC and temperature to tide appears to range from less than 30 min to 11 h. Using end‐member mixing analysis (EMMA), the fraction of variations of chloride concentration in the multilayered aquifer was explained, and a conceptual model was developed which subdivided the coastal aquifer into four vertical zones. The percentage of water derived from seawater varied from 2 to 48 at specific depth, owing to tidal fluctuations. Continuous observations of EC and temperature at multiple depths are powerful tools for quantifying the transport of saline water by tidal variations in multilayered coastal aquifers. Copyright © 2008 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Evidence for tidal triggering on the earthquakes of the Hellenic Arc,Greece

In this paper we investigate the tidal triggering evidence on the earthquakes of the seismic area of the Hellenic Arc using the Hist(ogram)Cum(mulation) method. We analyze the series of the earthquakes occurred in the area which is confined by the longitudes 22° and 28°E and latitudes 34° and 36°N in the time period from 1964 to 2012. In this time period 16,137 shallow and of intermediate depth earthquakes with M_L up to 6.0 and 1,482 deep earthquakes with M_L up to 6.2 occurred. The result of the this analysis indicate that the monthly variation of the frequencies of earthquake occurrence is in accordance with the period of the tidal lunar monthly variations, and the same happens with the corresponding daily variations of the frequencies of earthquake occurrence with the diurnal luni-solar (K1) and semidiurnal solar (S2) tidal variations. These results are in favor of a tidal triggering process on earthquakes when the stress in the focal area is near the critical level.     

维尼迪科夫调和分析对大甸子井水位潮汐因子和相位的气象影响研究

利用维尼迪柯夫潮汐调和分析方法计算内蒙古大甸子井水位原始资料和剔除气压、降雨资料后的潮汐因子和相位。结果显示,两种情况下得到的潮汐因子和相位具有较好的一致性,说明采用维尼迪柯夫潮汐调和分析方法得到的结果基本不受降水、气压等因素的影响。这对于缺少气压和降水等辅助观测的水位观测资料,使用原始资料进行维尼迪科夫潮汐调和分析,可获取比较可靠的潮汐因子和相位参数。     

On the question of the interrelation between variations in crustal electrical conductivity and geodynamical processes

The behavior of the variations in the crustal electrical conductivity in a wide range of periods is studied from the data of magnetotelluric soundings (MTS) during the Kambarata experiment (a strong industrial explosion to construct the blast-fill dam on the Naryn river), as well as at Aksu, a stationary geophysical monitoring point. The concept of the interrelation between the stress-strain state of the medium and the change in the apparent electrical resistivity, which is based on the idea of the redistribution of mineralized solutions between the crack networks, is confirmed experimentally. A procedure of azimuthal monitoring is developed, which allowed us not only to identify the anomalous changes in the module and phase of apparent resistivity but also to establish the directions of their maximum increases and decreases (the axes of compression and tension). For 34 points of deep MTS in the territory of Central Tien Shan, the depth intervals in the upper crust that are most sensitive to the changes in the stress-strain state of the medium are established. The variations in the electrical conductivity are compared with the solar-lunar tidal impacts. It is shown that by analyzing the recorded time series, it is possible to recognize the characteristic signs of the changes in the stress-strain state of the medium that are caused by seismic events.     

中国大陆井水温度潮汐动态的统计与调和分析

用收集到的全国356个井水温度测点的数据, 分析了水温对地球固体潮汐的响应, 统计出 35个存在水温潮汐现象的测点。 利用Baytap-G调和分析方法, 计算了水温潮汐分波的振幅、 振幅比和相位差。 结果表明: 水温潮汐现象是一类较普遍的地球物理现象, 其机制与水位潮汐相关, 可用水动力学模式解释; 水温潮汐变化特征还受太阳辐射热、 含水层和地温的影响, 自流井水温记录潮汐现象的能力高于非自流井、 东部地区水温测点记录潮汐现象的能力高于西部, 与太阳辐射热的影响有关, 在含水层附近的水温测点, 其潮汐动态比其他井段显著, 在受地温影响较大的井段, 水温的潮汐变化幅度与水温梯度成正比; 水温的应力-应变灵敏度量级为0.01～10℃/10^-6m·s^-2。     

Multiparameter monitoring of electromagnetic earthquake precursors in the frequency range 0.1 Hz-1 MHz

An approach to monitoring of electromagnetic earthquake precursors including variations of the apparent resistivity, electrotelluric fields, electromagnetic emission, and ionospheric disturbances perspective for short-term and mid-term earthquake prediction is considered. Parameters of hardware-software systems for audio- and radiomagnetotelluric soundings used in the monitoring of these precursors in a wide range of frequencies from 0.1 Hz to 1 MHz are described. The technique for the stress-strain sensitive area selection for the creation of monitoring networks based on the analysis of geological and geophysical characteristics of seismo active regions, study of geoelectric structures of preselected sites, and monitoring test sessions with the assessment of the response on tidal media deformations is presented. Recommendations on the recording technique of earthquake electromagnetic precursors are provided.     

New insights on the tsunami recording of the May, 21, 2003, Mw 6.9 Boumerdès earthquake from tidal data analysis

We analyzed sea level data from a set of tide gauge stations located in the central and western Mediterranean Sea, that recorded the tsunami generated by the Mw 6.8 Boumerdès earthquake striking the coast of Algeria on May 21, 2003. This earthquake caused more than 2200 victims and thousands of injured. The causative fault was located a few kilometers offshore and during the rupture a tsunami was triggered. Waves were felt along a large part of the western and northern Mediterranean coasts, and in the Balearic islands waves higher that 2 m were measured. In this paper we analyze a more complete tidal data set, with respect to previous studies, now consisting of 22 tidal stations located in Italy, France and Spain. To characterize the change of the tidal signal at each station we used the Empirical Mode Decomposition (EMD). By means of this technique, which is suitable to analyze and to characterize the dynamical behavior of non-stationary time series, we provide a precise measurement of the arrival times and amplitudes at the tidal stations and identify how this tsunami affected the principal and long term tidal components. Our findings improve previous results for this earthquake, since they allow the detection of significant amplitude fluctuations associated with the tsunami in the majority of stations, including the farthest ones.     

河北文安MS5.1地震前首都圈及邻近地区震源动力学参数时空变化特征

Source spectra,corner frequency and zero frequency amplitudes in near-source conditions were measured using waveform data from 989 earthquakes with magnitudes larger than ML2.0 observed by the Beijing Digital Telemetry Seismic Network in the Capital Circle Region of China and its surrounding areas from January 2002 to June 2006 by the Brune model.Relevant formulas that were used for the calculation of dynamic source parameters include rupture radius,seismic moment,seismic energy,stress drop,and apparent stress.Scaling relations and characteristics of temporal-spatial variations of these dynamic parameters before the MS5.1 Wenan earthquake in Hebei Province that occurred on July 20,2006 were analyzed.Results show that apparent stress,stress drop,and the ratio of seismic energy to the rupture radius had relatively high values in some areas before the Wenan earthquake.These high-value concentration areas were mainly distributed in the North China Plain seismic zone.As is seen from the time curves,parameters,such as apparent stress,stress drop,and ratio of seismic energy to rupture radius underwent significant ascending processes before the Wenan earthquake,but the variation in the corner frequency showed a descending trend.This result might be related to the enhancement of stress in the North China Plain seismic zone before the earthquake.     

地壳形变方法对强震中期趋势的判定

用全国范围５０的代至９０年代初期大地测量资料对我国大陆未来的强震危险区进行预测和划定；依据近３０年来华北地区的垂直形变动态，探讨判断本区未来１－３年尺度强震危险性的指标；利用首都圈的断层形变监测结果，提出用定点形变和大面积形变综合分析地震中期趋势的方法和结论。     

Modeling of changes in the tidal response of the environment to an impending earthquake

It has become possible to apply efficiently Beaumont and Berger’s idea (1974) about the possibility to predict earthquakes using continuous monitoring of temporal variations of the tidal response only in recent years, with the appearance of GPS data on the field of the Earth’s surface displacements in seismic regions, as well as with the appearance of the Global Seismographic Network (GSN) containing the tidal tiltmetric and gravimetric data in the vicinities of the epicenters of strong earthquakes in Peru (2001), Sumatra (2004), and Chile (2010) before and after the strongest seismic events. Below, we present the results of the modeling of temporal variations of the tidal response of the environment in the vicinities of the focus of catastrophic earthquakes. The model of the focus includes data on the expansion and orientation of the fault surface, as well as on the discontinuity of the tangential component of the displacement vector on the opposite shores. The model is constructed from the GPS data on horizontal and vertical displacements of the Earth’s surface.     

新岛台地电场的潮汐响应与地震

本文通过采用频谱分析和BAYTAP-G方法对位于日本伊豆群岛的新岛台跨度达三年（1998～2000年）的地电场的观测资料进行了分析研究,对该台地电场的潮汐响应进行了定量提取与分析,得到了地电场潮汐响应的一些主要特征,例如除了存在全日分潮、半日分潮等不同周期的潮汐成分外,还呈现出明显的半月、半年等不同周期的活动规律.进一步的定量分析显示与新岛台若乡（Wakago）关联的测线的潮汐响应在2000年夏季的群发地震前呈现出不同程度的异常变化,而在所分析的另一条测线中并未检测到类似的异常,这也许可以成为地震电磁信号的“选择性”现象的一种新的证据.