Characterising meridional overturning bistability using a minimal set of state variables

A close approximation of key state variables and salt fluxes for both the North Atlantic Deep Water (NADW) “on” and “off” states in a General Circulation Model (GCM) is constructed, yielding a natural stability condition. Here, stability is linked to the effect of feedbacks on infinitesimal salinity anomalies on the average Atlantic salinity. The stability condition simply states that the total advective salt feedback must be negative in each steady state, ensuring stability by damping the growth of infinitesimal salinity perturbations. However, a decomposition of the salt feedback into three components shows that only the interaction between the mean salinity and infinitesimal perturbations of the meridional flow have the potential to render a state unstable, holding the key to state transitions. In contrast, the interaction between the mean meridional flow and infinitesimal salinity perturbations yields a negative (stabilising) component feedback. Similarly, the gyre salt flux also stabilises the overturning states. Furthermore, the nodes limiting the “on” and “off” state regimes in the GCM can be accurately computed based on linear fits of basic state variables and the gyre salt flux. It is shown that the NADW “on” state closest to collapse must be contained within a neighbourhood of fresh water exporting states. Finally, the role of temperature in the bistability structure is elucidated.     

Revisiting effect of ocean diapycnal mixing on Atlantic meridional overturning circulation recovery in a freshwater perturbation simulation

The effects of ocean density vertical stratification and related ocean mixing on the transient response of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation （AMOC） are examined in a freshwater perturbation simulation using the Bergen Climate Model （BCM）. The results presented here are based on the model outputs of a previous freshwater experiment： a 300-year control integration （CTRL）, a freshwater integration （FW1） which started after 100 years of running the CTRL with an artificially and continuously threefold increase in the freshwater flux to the Greenland-Iceland-Norwegian （GIN） Seas and the Arctic Ocean throughout the following 150-year simulation. In FW1, the transient response of the AMOC exhibits an initial decreasing of about 6 Sv （1 Sv=106 m3 s^-1） over the first 50-year integration and followed a gradual recovery during the last 100-year integration. Our results show that the vertical density stratification as the crucial property of the interior ocean plays an important role for the transient responses of AMOC by regulating the convective and diapycnal mixings under the enhanced freshwater input to northern high latitudes in BCM in which the ocean diapycnal mixing is stratification-dependent. The possible mechanism is also investigated in this paper.     

Simulated decadal oscillations of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation in a cold climate state

The significance of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (MOC) for regional and hemispheric climate change requires a complete understanding using fully coupled climate models. Here we present a persistent, decadal oscillation in a coupled atmosphere–ocean general circulation model. While the present study is limited by the lack of comparisons with paleo-proxy records, the purpose is to reveal a new theoretically interesting solution found in the fully-coupled climate model. The model exhibits two multi-century-long stable states with one dominated by decadal MOC oscillations. The oscillations involve an interaction between anomalous advective transport of salt and surface density in the North Atlantic subpolar gyre. Their time scale is fundamentally determined by the advection. In addition, there is a link between the MOC oscillations and North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO)-like sea level pressure anomalies. The analysis suggests an interaction between the NAO and an anomalous subpolar gyre circulation in which sea ice near and south of the Labrador Sea plays an important role in generating a large local thermal anomaly and a meridional temperature gradient. The latter induces a positive feedback via synoptic eddy activity in the atmosphere. In addition, the oscillation only appears when the Nordic Sea is completely covered by sea ice in winter, and deep convection is active only near the Irminger Sea. Such conditions are provided by a substantially colder North Atlantic climate than today.     

随机微分方程的稳定性理论:方法概述

从所应用的主要方法出发,回顾了随机连续系统的各种稳定性理论结果,并探讨了这些稳定性之间的关系.     

Experience of using a dynamic stochastic approach for solving the problem of very short-range forecasting of state parameters of the atmospheric boundary layer

Discussed are the results of applying a dynamic stochastic method based on the use of the two-dimensional model and the Kalman filtering algorithm for solving the problem of the very short-range (from 0.5 to 6 hours) fore cast of air temperature and orthogonal components of the wind speed in the atmospheric boundary layer realized using the data of radio metric, sodar, and in creased-frequency radiosonde measurements. It is demonstrated that the pro posed technique and the appropriate algorithm give a rather high ac cu racy of very short-range fore casting of temperature and wind within the lead time range under consideration.     

Parameterization of meridional energy flux in a one-dimensional climate model

Summary The zonally averaged meridional energy transport is parameterized in terms of the zonally averaged temperature gradient and its radiative equilibrium value. Two climate regimes are identified: radiative equilibrium and isothermal climates. The transport and temperature gradient are intermediate between corresponding quantities of these two climates. The parameterization assumes a linear increase of transport as temperature gradient departs from its radiative equilibrium value. The parameterization is formulated using a one-dimensional climate model. Ice-albedo feedback provides the mechanism for climate changes. The parameterization works well for climates associated with seasonal changes.

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Parameterisierung des meridionalen Energiestromes in einem eindimensionalen Klimamodell

Zusammenfassung Der zonal gemittelte, meridionale Energietransport wird in Abhängigkeit vom zonal gemittelten Temperaturgradienten und seinem Strahlungsgleichgewicht parameterisiert. Zwei Klimaregime können identifiziert werden: Strahlungsgleichgewicht und isothermes Klima. Der Transport und der Temperaturgradient befinden sich zwischen den korrespondierenden Werten dieser zwei Klimate. Die Parameterisierung nimmt eine lineare Zunahme des Transportes mit der Abweichung des Temperaturgradienten vom seinem Strahlungsgleichgewichtswert an. Die Parameterisierung wird unter Verwendung eines eindimensionalen Klimamodelles formuliert. Die Eis-Albedo-Rückkopplung liefert den Mechanismus für Klimadnderungen. Die Parameterisierung funktioniert gut fur Klimate, welche jahreszeitliche Anderungen beinhalten.

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With 4 Figures     

Thermal radiative fluxes through inhomogeneous cloud fields: a sensitivity study using a new stochastic cloud generator

We analyze the effects of flat and bumpy top, fractional and internally inhomogeneous cloud layers on large area-averaged thermal radiative fluxes. Inhomogeneous clouds are generated by a new stochastic model: the tree-driven mass accumulation process (tdMAP). This model is able to provide stratocumulus and cumulus cloud fields with properties close to those observed in real clouds. A sensitivity study of cloud parameters is done by analyzing differences between 3D fluxes simulated by the spherical harmonic discrete ordinate method and three “standard” models likely to be used in general circulation models: plane-parallel homogeneous cloud model (PPH), PPH with fractional cloud coverage model (FCPPH) and independent pixel approximation model (IPA). We show that thermal fluxes are strong functions of fractional cloud coverage, mean optical depth, mean geometrical thickness and cloud base altitude. Fluctuations of “in-cloud” horizontal variability in optical depth and cloud-top bumps have negligible effects in the whole. We also showed that PPH, FCPPH and IPA models are not suitable to compute thermal fluxes of flat top fractional inhomogeneous cloud layer, except for completely overcast cloud. This implies that horizontal transport of photon at thermal wavelengths is important when cloudy cells are separated by optically thin regions.     

The role of meridional density differences for a wind-driven overturning circulation

Experiments with the coupled climate model CLIMBER-3α, which contains an oceanic general circulation model, show deep upwelling in the Southern Ocean to be proportional to the surface wind stress in the latitudinal band of Drake Passage. At the same time, the distribution of the Southern Ocean upwelling onto the oceanic basins is controlled by buoyancy distribution; the inflow into each basin being proportional to the respective meridional density difference. We observe approximately the same constant of proportionality for all basins, and demonstrate that it can be directly related to the flow geometry. For increased wind stress in the Southern Ocean, the overturning increases both in the Atlantic and the Indo-Pacific basin. For strongly reduced wind stress, the circulation enters a regime where Atlantic overturning is maintained through Pacific upwelling, in order to satisfy the transports set by the density differences. Previous results on surface buoyancy and wind stress forcing, obtained with different models, are reproduced within one model in order to distill a consistent picture. We propose that both Southern Ocean upwelling and meridional density differences set up a system of conditions that determine the global meridional overturning circulation.     

Temporal statistical downscaling of precipitation and temperature forecasts using a stochastic weather generator

Statistical downscaling is based on the fact that the large-scale climatic state and regional/local physiographic features control the regional climate. In the present paper, a stochastic weather generator is applied to seasonal precipitation and temperature forecasts produced by the International Research Institute for Climate and Society(IRI). In conjunction with the GLM(generalized linear modeling) weather generator, a resampling scheme is used to translate the uncertainty in the seasonal forecasts(the IRI format only specifies probabilities for three categories: below normal, near normal, and above normal) into the corresponding uncertainty for the daily weather statistics. The method is able to generate potentially useful shifts in the probability distributions of seasonally aggregated precipitation and minimum and maximum temperature, as well as more meaningful daily weather statistics for crop yields, such as the number of dry days and the amount of precipitation on wet days. The approach is extended to the case of climate change scenarios, treating a hypothetical return to a previously observed drier regime in the Pampas.     

A study of the climatic regimes of the Pleistocene using a stochastic resonance model

A global energy balance model employing the stochastic resonance mechanism, previously used to explain the climatic variability of the late Pleistocene, has now been extended to account for the climatic variations over the full Pleistocene. The possibility that extremely long-term changes (of the order of millions of years) in the boundary conditions of the climate system have altered the response of the Pleistocene climate to the external orbital forcing has been investigated. It is shown that, by slowly changing the only free parameter of the model, the system can undergo a pitchfork bifurcation. The bifurcation point separates a linear regime (identified with the early Pleistocene climate) from a strongly nonlinear regime (the late Pleistocene) where the stochastic resonance mechanism produces rapid and symmetric transitions between the two stable steady states of the system. The main differences in the dynamic features of the two regimes are the change in amplitude of the oscillations, the relative importance of the stochastic forcing, the change in shape of the probability distribution, and the corresponding change in the power centered around the 100000 year cycle: in qualitative agreement with the observed geological record. With the introduction of the external orbital forcing, now spectrally complete and included without requiring any additional hypothesis, the model reproduces the previous results, namely the good correlation with the isotopic record, the appearance of the dominant spectral peaks, as well as the redness of the power spectrum. In particular, it is shown that the orbital forcing in eccentricity acts as a pacemaker of the major glacial cycles of the late Pleistocene through the mechanism of stochastic resonance. A stochastic sensitivity analysis is then applied to validate the significance of the results and to investigate the predictability of the climate system over the time-scales of the orbital cycles.     

Effect of wind forcing on the meridional heat transport in a coupled climate model: equilibrium response

Climate Dynamics - The effect of the ocean surface winds on the meridional heat transports is studied in a coupled model. Shutting down the global surface winds causes significant reductions in...     

Sensitivity study and validation of a land surface parameterization using the HAPEX-MOBILHY data set

A simple parameterization of land surface processes, amenable to the structure of a two-layer soil model, including a representation of the vegetation, has been designed for use in meteorological models. Prior to implementation in a mesoscale model, it is necessary to check the components and to verify the good working order of the parameterization as a whole. The aims of this paper then are: (i) evaluation and a sensitivity study of the various components of the model, specifying the needed accuracy for the parameters; (ii) micrometeorological validation of the model against the HAPEX-MOBILHY data set.First, we present the basic scheme. The focus is on the parameterization of surface resistance, and especially on its relationship with soil moisture.A sensitivity study is then performed through a set of one-dimensional simulations which allow a full interaction between the ground and the atmosphere. Above bare ground, it is shown that both soil texture and initial moisture greatly influence the outcome of the simulation. Latent heat flux ranges from that associated with potential evaporation through a switch-like behavior to that of dry soil. Next, the effects of transpiring vegetation canopies on the physical processes involved and the surface energy balance are examined. The sensitivity of the latent heat flux to changes in the soil and canopy parameters is emphazised; the major influence of the initial mean soil moisture and of the vegetation cover is pointed out. Finally, the evolution of the boundary layer in response to various surface conditions is studied.A validation of the land surface scheme is conducted through daily cycles during cloudless days. Simulated turbulent fluxes are successfully compared to micrometeorological measurements over a maize field at different growth stages. Over a pine forest, the correct simulation of the turbulent fluxes is obtained with an adequate parameterization of the surface resistance accounting for the atmospheric moisture deficit.     

Processes governing the predictability of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation in a coupled GCM

The processes that govern the predictability of decadal variations in the North Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (MOC) are investigated in a long control simulation of the ECHO-G coupled atmosphere?Cocean model. We elucidate the roles of local stochastic forcing by the atmosphere, and other potential ocean processes, and use our results to build a predictive regression model. The primary influence on MOC variability is found to come from air?Csea heat fluxes over the Eastern Labrador Sea. The maximum correlation between such anomalies and the variations in the MOC occurs at a lead time of 2?years, but we demonstrate that the MOC integrates the heat flux variations over a period of 10?years. The corresponding univariate regression model accounts for 74.5% of the interannual variability in the MOC (after the Ekman component has been removed). Dense anomalies to the south of the Greenland-Scotland ridge are also shown to precede the overturning variations by 4?C6?years, and provide a second predictor. With the inclusion of this second predictor the resulting regression model explains 82.8% of the total variance of the MOC. This final bivariate model is also tested during large rapid decadal overturning events. The sign of the rapid change is always well represented by the bivariate model, but the magnitude is usually underestimated, suggesting that other processes are also important for these large rapid decadal changes in the MOC.     

Conditional stochastic simulation model for spatial downscaling for assessing the effects of climate change on hydro-meteorological variables

The current study examines the recently proposed “bias correction and stochastic analogues” (BCSA) statistical spatial downscaling technique and attempts to improve it by conditioning coarse resolution data when generating replicates. While the BCSA method reproduces the statistical features of the observed fine data, this existing model does not replicate the observed coarse spatial pattern, and subsequently, the cross-correlation between the observed coarse data and downscaled fine data with the model cannot be preserved. To address the dissimilarity between the BCSA downscaled data and observed fine data, a new statistical spatial downscaling method, “conditional stochastic simulation with bias correction” (BCCS), which employs the conditional multivariate distribution and principal component analysis, is proposed. Gridded observed climate data of mean daily precipitation (mm/day) covering a month at 1/8° for a fine resolution and at 1° for a coarse resolution over Florida for the current and future periods were used to verify and cross-validate the proposed technique. The observed coarse and fine data cover the 50-year period from 1950 to1999, and the future RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 climate scenarios cover the 100-year period from 2000 to 2099. The verification and cross-validation results show that the proposed BCCS downscaling method serves as an effective alternative means of downscaling monthly precipitation levels to assess climate change effects on hydrological variables. The RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 GCM scenarios are successfully downscaled.     

Response of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation to a reversal of greenhouse gas increases

The reversibility of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) is investigated in multi-model experiments using global climate models (GCMs) where CO₂ concentrations are increased by 1 or 2 % per annum to 2× or 4× preindustrial conditions. After a period of stabilisation the CO₂ is decreased back to preindustrial conditions. In most experiments when the CO₂ decreases, the AMOC recovers before becoming anomalously strong. This "overshoot" is up to an extra 18.2Sv or 104 % of its preindustrial strength, and the period with an anomalously strong AMOC can last for several hundred years. The magnitude of this overshoot is shown to be related to the build up of salinity in the subtropical Atlantic during the previous period of high CO₂ levels. The magnitude of this build up is partly related to anthropogenic changes in the hydrological cycle. The mechanisms linking the subtropical salinity increase to the subsequent overshoot are analysed, supporting the relationship found. This understanding is used to explain differences seen in some models and scenarios. In one experiment there is no overshoot because there is little salinity build up, partly as a result of model differences in the hydrological cycle response to increased CO₂ levels and partly because of a less aggressive scenario. Another experiment has a delayed overshoot, possibly as a result of a very weak AMOC in that GCM when CO₂ is high. This study identifies aspects of overshoot behaviour that are robust across a multi-model and multi-scenario ensemble, and those that differ between experiments. These results could inform an assessment of the real-world AMOC response to decreasing CO₂.     

Early Last Interglacial Greenland Ice Sheet melting and a sustained period of meridional overturning weakening: a model analysis of the uncertainties

Proxy-data suggest that the Last Interglacial (LIG; ~130–116 ka BP) climate was characterized by higher temperatures, a partially melted Greenland Ice Sheet (GIS) and a changed Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC). Notwithstanding the uncertainties in LIG palaeoclimatic reconstructions, this setting potentially provides an opportunity to evaluate the relation between GIS melt and the AMOC as simulated by climate models. However, first we need to assess the extent to which a causal relation between early LIG GIS melt and the weakened AMOC is plausible. With a series of transient LIG climate simulations with the LOVECLIM earth system model, we quantify the importance of the major known uncertainties involved in early LIG GIS melt scenarios. Based on this we construct a specific scenario that is within the parameter space of uncertainties and show that it is physically consistent that early LIG GIS melting kept the AMOC weakened. Notwithstanding, this scenario is at the extreme end of the parameter space. Assuming that proxy-based reconstructions of early LIG AMOC weakening offer a realistic representation of its past state, this indicates that either (1) the AMOC weakening was caused by other forcings than early LIG GIS melt or (2) the early LIG AMOC was less stable than indicated by our simulations and a small amount of GIS melt was sufficient to keep the AMOC in the weak state of a bi-stable regime. We argue that more intensive research is required because of the high potential of the early LIG to evaluate model performance in relation to the AMOC response to GIS melt.     

中国天气发生器非降水变量模拟参数分布特征

对基于马尔可夫链的理查森型中国天气发生器降水模拟已经有过比较系统的研究,但对非降水变量的模拟及其参数的分布特征等的研究还有待进一步深入。文中根据中国669个站点1971—2000年的逐日降水、最高气温、最低气温和日照时数资料,分干、湿两种状态计算了中国天气发生器各非降水变量的模拟参数——干、湿日条件下平均值和标准差的傅立叶系数以及各变量残差序列之间当天和后延一天的自相关、互相关系数,并分析了这些模拟参数在中国的空间分布规律,为中国天气发生器的进一步推广应用以及模拟参数的空间插值提供了技术支撑。