Interannual Climate Variability Change during the Medieval Climate Anomaly and Little Ice Age in PMIP3 Last Millennium Simulations

In this study, we analyzed numerical experiments undertaken by 10 climate models participating in PMIP3(Paleoclimate Modelling Intercomparison Project Phase 3) to examine the changes in interannual temperature variability and coefficient of variation(CV) of interannual precipitation in the warm period of the Medieval Climate Anomaly(MCA) and the cold period of the Little Ice Age(LIA). With respect to the past millennium period, the MCA temperature variability decreases by 2.0% on average over the globe, and most of the decreases occur in low latitudes. In the LIA, temperature variability increases by a global average of 0.6%, which occurs primarily in the high latitudes of Eurasia and the western Pacific. For the CV of interannual precipitation, regional-scale changes are more significant than changes at the global scale, with a pattern of increased(decreased) CV in the midlatitudes of Eurasia and the northwestern Pacific in the MCA(LIA). The CV change ranges from-7.0% to 4.3%(from -6.3% to 5.4%), with a global average of -0.5%(-0.07%) in the MCA(LIA).Also, the variability changes are considerably larger in December–January–February with respect to both temperature and precipitation.     

The most predictable patterns and prediction skills of subseasonal prediction of rainfall over the Indo-Pacific regions by the NCEP Climate Forecast System

Climate Dynamics - The most predictable patterns and prediction skills of subseasonal rainfall prediction for the Indo-Pacific regions are investigated using the daily hindcast product of the NCEP...     

近45 a冬季北大西洋涛动异常与我国气候的关系

利用1873～1995年的北半球海平面气压月平均资料,定义了北大西洋涛动指数.用近45a资料研究了北大西洋涛动与我国冬、夏季气候变化的关系.指出,北大西洋涛动异常变化与我国冬、夏季天气气候关系密切.强涛动年,冬季我国是偏暖、多雨的气候特征;夏季我国江淮之间地区气温明显偏低.还表明,强涛动年冬季,西太平洋副热带高压强度与西伯利亚高压及高空经向环流都明显偏弱,大气环流具有弱WA遥相关型、弱的东亚冬季风特征,对应的夏季环流特征与强东亚夏季风特征较接近.     

Semi-monthly mean sea-level pressure maps for the Mediterranean area

Summary Semi-monthly mean sea-level pressure maps for the Mediterranean and adjacent areas are presented. Isobars have been drawn at 1-millibar intervals. The most significant features on the maps and the advantages of the mode of presentation are discussed briefly.

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Zusammenfassung Es werden auf das Meeresniveau bezogene halbmonatliche mittlere Luftdruckkarten für das Mittelmeergebiet und die anstoßenden Länder vorgelegt. Die Isobaren wurden für Millibarabstände gezeichnet. Die wichtigsten Resultate der Karten und die Vorzüge der Darstellungsweise werden kurz besprochen.

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Résumé Présentation de cartes de la pression moyenne semi-mensuelle, réduite au niveau de la mer, de la région méditerranéenne et des contrées voisines. Les isobares sont tracées de millibar en millibar. Brève discussion des traits principaux des cartes et des avantages de la méthode de représentation.

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With 25 Figures.

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The work reported in this paper has been supported by the Geophysics Research Division of the Air Force Cambridge Research Center, under Contract AF 19 (122)-466.     

卢氏县冬季异常气候分析

利用异常度的概念对卢氏1960-2005年冬季气候进行分析,建立了冬季异常气候(干湿冷暖)划分标准,并根据天气气候学原理对形成干湿冷暖异常冬季气候的平均环流形势、副高特征、ENSO事件等进行分析,结果表明:卢氏46 a来冬季气温从持续偏低到持续偏高的年际变化周期,与副高的强弱年际变化相对应.冷(暖)冬前期夏季副热带高压持续偏强(弱),到秋季转为持续偏弱(强).在EL Nino事件期间常出现暖冬和湿冬,而LA Nina事件期间常伴随冷冬.     

Indian summer monsoon rainfall variability during 2014 and 2015 and associated Indo-Pacific upper ocean temperature patterns

Theoretical and Applied Climatology - In this study, factors responsible for the deficit Indian Summer Monsoon (ISM) rainfall in 2014 and 2015 and the ability of Indian Institute of Tropical...     

抚顺地区夏季降水异常的气候特征分析

利用1951—2012年NCEP/NCAR再分析月平均资料及章党观测站月平均降水数据,利用统计学方法从大气环流等方面对抚顺地区夏季降水异常气候特征进行了分析探讨。结果表明:抚顺地区夏季降水存在明显年际尺度周期特征,西太平洋副热带高压北界越偏北、强度越强则抚顺地区降水强度越大。抚顺地区降水强(弱)年,500hPa高度场抚顺地区位于距平低涡(高压)底前部,850hPa风场抚顺地区处于西南(偏北)气流控制之下,海平面气压场抚顺地区位于蒙古气旋底前部(反气旋前部),比湿场抚顺位于比湿距平正值(负值)区内。降水强年的温度场距平低值中心落后于500hPa高度场低值中心,利于高空槽的发展,有利于降水的维持加强,降水弱年的温度场距平低值中心与500hPa高度场低值中心相配合,对高空槽脊的发展无明显的影响。     

春季江淮气旋波的某些特征

2015年5月1—2日由江淮气旋引发了一次江淮和江南暴雨天气过程, 利用常规地面、高空观测、6 h一次的NCEP 1°×1°再分析场、星下点分辨率为5 km的FY-2E水汽云图等资料, 重点分析了江淮气旋的生成环境、结构特征、演变过程及东移原因, 在此基础上分析了此次暴雨过程的成因。结果表明:(1)这次江淮气旋生成于500 hPa西风槽前, 西南涡沿暖切变线东移、地面冷锋进入低压倒槽的顶端; 此后该气旋向东移动, 但强度逐渐减弱。(2)这次江淮气旋表现为中低层浅薄系统, 温度锋区弱, 与经典的深厚温带气旋结构不同。江淮气旋生成时, 正相对涡度区随高度向西倾斜; 当高低层正相对涡度区逐渐垂直重合时, 江淮气旋减弱。(3)暴雨的产生与低空急流输送的丰富水汽、500 hPa高空槽前中低层低涡、切变线、气旋等引起的强上升运动有关; 暴雨区南北两支次级环流圈的存在有利于强上升运动的维持; 地形抬升作用使得降水加强。(4)地面气旋中心总是沿中低层暖平流区域及其下游高低层微差涡度平流较大区域移动, 移向对流层中层上升运动区。

     

Predictable patterns of the Asian and Indo-Pacific summer precipitation in the NCEP CFS

The predictable patterns of the Asian and Indo-Pacific summer precipitation in the NCEP climate forecast system (CFS) are depicted by applying a maximized signal-to-noise empirical orthogonal function analysis. The CFS captures the two most dominant modes of observed climate patterns. The first most dominant mode is characterized by the climate features of the onset years of El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), with strong precipitation signals over the tropical eastern Indian and western Pacific oceans, Southeast Asia, and tropical Asian monsoon regions including the Bay of Bengal and the South China Sea. The second most dominant mode is characterized by the climate features of the decay years of ENSO, with weakening signals over the western-central Pacific and strengthening signals over the Indian Ocean. The CFS is capable of predicting the most dominant modes several months in advance. It is also highly skillful in capturing the air–sea interaction processes associated with the precipitation features, as demonstrated in sea surface temperature and wind patterns.     

2011年夏季气候异常及主要异常事件成因分析

本文对2011年夏季的中国气候及大气环流异常特征进行分析,发现我国总体气温偏高,降水偏少。西北西部、华北南部、江淮至江南一带,西南地区东部等地出现了阶段性的较大范围极端高温天气过程。西南地区东部和广西等地出现严重干旱;而长江下游地区降水显著偏多。进一步对中国气候异常事件的成因分析表明：异常高压的长期维持,孟加拉湾的向北水汽输送偏弱及西太平洋副热带高压位置偏东使其西侧的东南和偏南水汽输送对我国西南地区影响小是导致西南地区严重干旱的大气环流因素;2010年秋季出现的中部型拉尼娜事件可能是西南干旱的一个重要外强迫条件。2011年夏季亚洲极涡偏弱偏小,欧亚中高纬地区经向环流偏强,有利于冷空气南下;同时,中纬度西太平洋地区海温持续偏低而激发反气旋性环流产生,造成西太平洋副高偏大偏强,冷暖气流在长江下游地区交汇造成降水显著偏多。     

2011年8月气候异常及成因分析

在总结2011年8月我国气候异常与大气环流特征的基础上,针对西南干旱和热带气旋活动偏少两大气候异常事件的成因进行了分析。结果表明：高度场偏高、西太平洋副热带高压偏强、夏季风偏弱和水汽条件较差等大气环流异常是导致高温干旱的主要原因;中部型拉尼娜事件的滞后影响和印度洋偏暖的影响是西南干旱的重要外强迫条件。南海对流活动偏弱,菲律宾以东季风槽位置偏北,热带气旋活动区域垂直风切偏大,西北太平洋副热带高压偏强等因素导致热带气旋活动偏少。     

我国气候对北太平洋海温的响应的模拟试验

利用联邦德国汉堡大学气象研究所大气环流模式的气候模拟的结果,就模式中我国气候对北太平洋海温异常的响应进行了分析,目的在于研究我国气候的成因。我国气候对海温的敏感性试验由异常算程和对照算程组成。异常算程是在北太平洋多年平均海温场上迭加一个“东温西凉”型的异常值,而对照算程中则为多年平均海温场。试验结果指出,1月300百帕上青藏高原两侧的南北两支急流大大增强,Hadley环流减弱,500百帕环流和850百帕温度场出现类似冷冬的形势,即经向环流加强,南北温度梯度加大,我国大部分地区的1月气温降低。但湿度场对北太平洋海温异常的响应甚弱,这与通常的看法一致,即冬季我国干旱主要是由于蒙古干冷高压频频入侵造成的。     

Climate prediction for the extratropical northern hemisphere for the next 500 years based on periodic natural processes

Five paleoclimatic reconstructions for the extratropical Northern Hemisphere are decomposed into quasiperiodic variations using the spectral analysis methods. The existence of ～1000-, ～500-, ～350-, and ～200-year periodicities is established which define the climatic variability over the past four millennia. Based on the identified quasiperiodicities, the climate forecast for the Northern Hemisphere extratropical zone is obtained. The forecast demonstrates that the currently observed warm climate will generally be kept for 500 years. However, the strongly pronounced trend towards the gradual cooling is expected in the 22nd century.     

A climatology of Southern Hemisphere extratropical cyclones

A climatology of extratropical cyclones determined by an objective automatic scheme applied to 15 years (1975–89) of once-daily Australian Bureau of Meteorology hemispheric analyses is presented. Contour maps of the positions of formation (cyclogenesis), dissipation (cyclolysis) together with other cyclone statistics are presented. The distribution of cyclones through the hemisphere was found to be dominated by a permanent high latitude core coincident with the circumpolar trough. During the winter and intermediate seasons, two mid latitude branches are evident in the cyclone density originating in the Tasman Sea and South American sectors, both spiraling poleward and merging with the circumpolar core in the Southern Oceans. Systems were observed to move in an castsouth-east direction, away from their location of formation, exhibiting peak speeds of migration in the mid latitudes. Little seasonality was evident in the densitiy distribution of cyclones through the Southern Oceans, but a considerable amount was found in their central pressure. Correspondence to: I Simmonds     

An Effective Method for Correcting the Seasonal-Interannual Prediction of Summer Climate Anomaly

1.IntroductionTheseasonalandinterannualpredictionofsummerclimateanomaliesbyvariouscoupledclimatemodelsisakeyobjectiveoftheclimateresearchcommunityintheworld.StudiesonEINinoandSouthernOscillation(ENSO)--relatedclimatepredictabilityshowedthatpredictiveskilloutsidethetropicsisgenerallylowcomparedtothattheinthetropics,althoughsomepredictiveskillsmayexistinsomemonsoonregions(Zengetal.,1990;KumarandHoerling,1995;Brankovitchandpalmer,1997;Zengetal.,1997;Jietal.,1994;Websteretal.,1998).Eveninthe…     

ENSO循环对西北地区夏季气候异常的影响

利用陕、甘、宁、青、新五省(区)分布均匀的89个测站近40年的夏季降水和气温资料,分析了ENSO循环在不同位相时西北地区夏季降水和气温的异常特征。结果表明,西北地区夏季气候在ENSO循环不同位相的异常特征各不相同。El Ni~↑no发展年,我国青藏高原东侧地区的降雨稀少,气温偏高,容易发生干旱,而新疆则以低温多雨为主;El Ni~↑no次年,青藏高原东侧及北疆地区降水偏多,气温偏低。La Ni~↑na年我国西北地区的气候特征类似于El Ni~↑no次年,但异常的范围更大,异常程度更加明显。西北地区夏季降水在El Ni~↑no发展年的异常强度较次年和La Ni~↑na年明显,而气温则相反,即在El Ni~↑no次年和La Ni~↑na年的异常要强于El Ni~↑no当年。无论是降水还是气温,青海东部、甘肃中部、宁夏和陕北是夏季我国西北地区对ENSO影响反映最强烈的区域,新疆地区则有其自身特点。     

1991 年汛期旱涝类型的气候振动

1991年汛期我国旱涝的分布（江淮多雨、华北及江南少雨）与近五百年旱涝等级图EOF展开的第三特征向量一致。通过对旱涝第三特征向量时间系数（1991年旱涝型指数）的分析,发现1991年旱涝型指数具有37年左右的布吕克纳周期,且与南方涛动指数的36.7年周期有关。还发现1991年旱涝型指数与全球温度的相关系数为0.41(P＞0.001),与北太平洋海面温度场的相关分布则相似于厄尔尼诺时期海面温度距平场的分布,即在赤道东太平洋为正相关,在西风漂流区为负相关。因此1991年的旱涝分布,可能与旱涝型自身长期变化所处