Interdecadal change in the Northern Hemisphere seasonal climate prediction skill: part II. predictability and prediction skill

The interdecadal change in seasonal predictability and numerical models’ seasonal forecast skill in the Northern Hemisphere are examined using both observations and the seasonal hindcast from six coupled atmosphere-ocean climate models from the 21 period of 1960–1980 (P1) to that of 1981–2001 (P2). It is shown that the one-month lead seasonal forecast skill of the six models’ multi-model ensemble is significantly increased from P1 to P2 for all four seasons. We identify four possible reasons accounting for the interdecadal change of the seasonal forecast skill. Firstly, the numerical model’s ability to simulate the mean state, the time variability and the spatial structures of the sea surface temperature and precipitation over the tropical Pacific is improved in P2 compared to P1. Secondly, an examination of the potential predictability of the atmosphere, estimated by the ratio of the total variance to the variance due to the internal dynamics of the model atmosphere, reveals that the atmospheric potential predictability is significantly increased after 1980s which is mainly due to an increased influence of El Niño-Southern Oscillation signal over the North Pacific and North American regions. Thirdly, the long-term climate trends in the atmosphere are found to contribute, to some extent, to the increased seasonal forecast skill especially over the Eurasian regions. Finally, the improved ocean observations in P2 may provide better initial conditions for the coupled models’ seasonal forecast.     

北方涛动同北半球温带大气环流的遥相关(一)——基本结构

本文利用1951—1980年逐季的平均值资料(共120个季)讨论了北方涛动和与其相联系的北太平洋海温与北半球海平面气压场、500hPa位势高度场遥相关的基本结构,并与南方涛动和赤道东太平洋海温的结果进行了对比分析.发现北太平洋Namias海区和加利福尼亚海流区海温的变化与北方涛动具有很密切的联系;北方涛动和这两个海区的海温同北半球中高纬度大气环流特别是PNA型和NAO型环流异常存在明显的遥相关关系;南方涛动和赤道太平洋海温同WP型或NPO型环流异常关系比较密切,而与PNA型和NAO型的关系不如北方涛动和Namias海区及加利福尼亚海流区海温的显著.     

Resolution of the atmospheric model matters for the Northern Hemisphere Mid-Holocene climate

This study evaluates the dependence of simulated surface air temperatures on model resolution and orography for the mid-Holocene. Sensitivity experiments with the atmospheric general circulation model ECHAM5 are performed with low (∼3.75°, 19 vertical levels) and high (∼1.1°, 31 vertical levels) resolution. Results are compared to the respective preindustrial runs. It is found that the large-scale temperature anomalies for the mid-Holocene (compared to preindustrial) are significantly different in the low- and high-resolution versions. For boreal winter, differences are mainly related to circulation changes caused by the response to thermal forcing in conjunction with orographic resolution. For summer, shortwave cloud radiative forcing emerges as an important factor. The anomaly differences (low minus high resolution version) in the Northern Hemisphere are regionally as large as the anomalous mid-Holocene temperature signals. Furthermore, they depend on the applied surface boundary conditions. We conclude that the resolution matters for the Northern Hemisphere response in mid-Holocene simulations, which should be taken into account in model-model and data-model comparisons.     

影响中国夏季降水的前冬北半球中高纬大气环流年际变异主模态

本文利用观测和再分析资料,通过奇异值分解(Singular Value Decomposition, SVD)分析,发现北极涛动(Arctic Oscillation, AO)是显著影响中国夏季降水年际异常的前冬中高纬大气环流变异的主模态。AO在冬季发展成熟,在春季衰亡,在夏季发生位相反转。AO会导致华北、东北、长江中下游和华南夏季降水异常呈现三极型分布。伴随正位相的AO,在黄海至日本海上空的异常低压伴随的东北风异常引起华北和东北水汽通量异常辐散及降水减少,而西北太平洋的异常高压不仅增强其北侧的西南风水汽输送,和北部异常低压共同作用导致长江中下游水汽通量异常辐合及降水增加,而且使得华南水汽通量异常辐散,降水减少。因此,本文发现的前冬AO模态与我国夏季三极型异常降水分布的关系可为我国夏季旱涝预测提供一个重要的中高纬前期因子。     

Notes on extended–range atmospheric prediction in the Northern Hemisphere winter

We examined the characteristic feature and predictability of low frequency variability (LFV) of the atmosphere in the Northern Hemisphere winter (January and February) by using the empirical orthogonal functions (EOFs) of the geopotential height at 500 hPa. In the discussion, we used the EOFs for geostrophic zonal wind (Uznl) and the height deviation from the zonal mean (Zeddy). The set of EOFs for Uznl and Zeddy was denoted as Uznl-1. Uznl-2, …, Zeddy-1, Zeddy-2…, respectively. We used the data samples of 396 pentads derived from 33 years of NMC, ECMWF and JMA analyses, from January 1963 to 1995. From the calculated scores for Uznl-1, Uznl-2, Zeddy-1, Zeddy-2 and so on we found that Uznl-1 and Zeddy-1 were statistically stable and their scores were more persistent than those of the other EOFs. A close relationship existed between the scores of Uznl-1 and those of Zeddy-1 30-day forecast experiments were carried out with the medium resolution version of JMA global spectral model for 20 cases in January and February for the period of 1984-1992. Results showed that Zeddy-1 was more predicta?ble than the other EOFs for Zeddy Considering these results, we argued that prediction of the Zeddy-1 was to be one of the main target of extended range forecasting     

Understanding the impact of climate change on Northern Hemisphere extra-tropical cyclones

Extra-tropical cyclones strongly influence weather and climate in mid-latitudes and any future changes may have large impacts on the local scale. In this study Northern Hemisphere storms are analysed in ensembles of time-slice experiments carried out with an atmosphere only model with present day and future anthropogenic emissions. The present day experiment is forced by observed sea-surface temperature and sea-ice. The sea-surface temperatures and sea-ice for the future experiment are derived by adding anomalies, from parallel but lower resolution coupled model experiments, to the observed data. The storms in the present day simulation compare fairly well with observations in all seasons but some errors remain. In the future simulations there is some evidence of a poleward shift in the storm tracks in some seasons and regions. There are fewer cyclones in the Northern Hemisphere in winter and spring. The northeast end of the North Atlantic storm track is shifted south in winter giving more storms and increased frequency of strong winds over the British Isles. This shift is related to an increase in baroclinicity and a southward shift of the jet that occurs as a response to a minimum in ocean warming in the central North Atlantic. An increase in the frequency of storms over the UK is likely to cause enhanced levels of wind and flood damage. These results concur with those from some other models, however, large uncertainties remain.     

北方涛动同北半球温带大气环流的遥相关(二)——季节变化

在以前工作的基础上,本文进一步分析了各个季节北方涛动和与其相联系的北太平洋海温同北半球温带大气环流遥相关的特征,并与南方涛动和赤道太平洋海温的结果进行了比较,发现它们同北半球温带大气环流的遥相关,不仅具有很强的地区性,而且具有明显的季节变化。 冬季,北方涛动和北太平洋海温与PNA型相关非常明显,且比南方涛动和赤道太平洋海温的更密切。除PNA型外,北方涛动还同500hPa高度的亚洲-北美(ANA)流型有联系。 夏季,PNA遥相关型的表现仍然非常清楚,但位置较冬季偏酉和偏北,并在北美西海岸具有特殊的分叉现象。     

Numerical simulation of Eurasian teleconnection pattern in atmospheric circulation during the Northern Hemisphere winter

In this paper, the anomaly of disturbance height field over Northern Hemisphere due to SST anomaly in the tropical Atlantic Ocean is simulated by using the general circulation model of IAP. A quasi-geostrophic, 34-level spherical coordinate model is also used to compute the distribution of atmospheric circulation anomaly when there is an anomaly of heat source over the tropical Atlantic. The computed results show that, owing to the heat source anomaly over the tropical Atlantic, the EU-pattern anomaly in the winter circulation may be caused. Namely, a ridge will be enhanced over the northwest Europe, a trough will be deepened over Siberia, but a positive anomaly of disturbance height field will be formed over the northeast China, Japan and other areas of East Asia. Moreover, the numerically simulated results show that the above-mentioned EU-pattern anomalies of circulation are due to the propagations of planetary wave train. About 15 days after an anomaly of the heat source over the tropical Atlantic is injected, the EU-pattern anomaly of atmospheric circulation is formed. This is in good agreement with the results analysed theoretically. On the leave from Geophysical Institute, Faculty of Science in Tokyo University, Japan.     

Predictability of SST forced climate signals in two atmospheric general circulation models

 The predictability of atmospheric responses to global sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies is evaluated using ensemble simulations of two general circulation models (GCMs): the GENESIS version 1.5 (GEN) and the ECMWF cycle 36 (ECM). The integrations incorporate observed SST variations but start from different initial land and atmospheric states. Five GEN 1980–1992 and six ECM 1980–1988 realizations are compared with observations to distinguish predictable SST forced climate signals from internal variability. To facilitate the study, correlation analysis and significance evaluation techniques are developed on the basis of time series permutations. It is found that the annual mean global area with realistic signals is variable dependent and ranges from 3 to 20% in GEN and 6 to 28% in ECM. More than 95% of these signal areas occur between 35 °S–35 °N. Due to the existence of model biases, robust responses, which are independent of initial condition, are identified over broader areas. Both GCMs demonstrate that the sensitivity to initial conditions decreases and the predictability of SST forced responses increases, in order, from 850 hPa zonal wind, outgoing longwave radiation, 200 hPa zonal wind, sea-level pressure to 500 hPa height. The predictable signals are concentrated in the tropical and subtropical Pacific Ocean and are identified with typical El Ni?o/ Southern Oscillation phenomena that occur in response to SST and diabatic heating anomalies over the equatorial central Pacific. ECM is less sensitive to initial conditions and better predicts SST forced climate changes. This results from (1) a more realistic basic climatology, especially of the upper-level wind circulation, that produces more realistic interactions between the mean flow, stationary waves and tropical forcing; (2) a more vigorous hydrologic cycle that amplifies the tropical forcing signals, which can exceed internal variability and be more efficiently transported from the forcing region. Differences between the models and observations are identified. For GEN during El Ni?o, the convection does not carry energy to a sufficiently high altitude, while the spread of the tropospheric warming along the equator is slower and the anomaly magnitude smaller than observed. This impacts model ability to simulate realistic responses over Eurasia and the Indian Ocean. Similar biases exist in the ECM responses. In addition, the relationships between upper and lower tropospheric wind responses to SST forcing are not well reproduced by either model. The identification of these model biases leads to the conclusion that improvements in convective heat and momentum transport parametrizations and basic climate simulations could substantially increase predictive skill. Received: 25 April 1996 / Accepted: 9 December 1996     

Northern hemisphere winter atmospheric climate: modes of natural variability and climate change

Under anthropogenic climate change it is possible that the increased radiative forcing and associated changes in mean climate may affect the “dynamical equilibrium” of the climate system; leading to a change in the relative dominance of different modes of natural variability, the characteristics of their patterns or their behavior in the time domain. Here we use multi-century integrations of version three of the Hadley Centre atmosphere model coupled to a mixed layer ocean to examine potential changes in atmosphere-surface ocean modes of variability. After first evaluating the simulated modes of Northern Hemisphere winter surface temperature and geopotential height against observations, we examine their behavior under an idealized equilibrium doubling of atmospheric CO₂. We find no significant changes in the order of dominance, the spatial patterns or the associated time series of the modes. Having established that the dynamic equilibrium is preserved in the model on doubling of CO₂, we go on to examine the temperature pattern of mean climate change in terms of the modes of variability; the motivation being that the pattern of change might be explicable in terms of changes in the amount of time the system resides in a particular mode. In addition, if the two are closely related, we might be able to assess the relative credibility of different spatial patterns of climate change from different models (or model versions) by assessing their representation of variability. Significant shifts do appear to occur in the mean position of residence when examining a truncated set of the leading order modes. However, on examining the complete spectrum of modes, it is found that the mean climate change pattern is close to orthogonal to all of the modes and the large shifts are a manifestation of this orthogonality. The results suggest that care should be exercised in using a truncated set of variability EOFs to evaluate climate change signals.     

The relationship between the Spring Asian Atmospheric circulation and the previous winter Northern Hemisphere annular mode

Summary By using the NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data, the Northern Hemisphere annular mode index (NAMI), China dust storm frequency data and China’s 160-station monthly precipitation data, the relationship between the previous winter (December–February) Northern Hemisphere annular mode (NAM) and the following spring (March–May) Asian atmospheric circulation is examined statistically in this study. Results demonstrate that the relationship between the spring Asian atmospheric circulation and the previous winter NAM is more significant on decadal time scales than on interannual time scales. There are significant negative correlations between the previous winter NAM and the spring temperature in what is almost a troposphere over Northwest China. There is a significant positive correlation between the winter NAMI and following spring geopotential height field over the Mongolian Plateau and Middle Siberia (MPMS) at the upper level. The positive correlation coefficients center moves to the south with the level from high to low. At lower level the high correlation coefficients center is located over the North China. There is a significant negative correlation between the winter NAMI and the surface horizontal wind intensity in the following spring for Northwest China on decadal timescales. The results suggest that a strong NAM in winter is followed by a negative temperature anomaly and a positive anomaly of the spring 500 hPa geopotential height over the MPMS, while at the same time the spring anomaly of the southeast wind is experienced in the surface layer in Northwest China, implying that the intensity of the northwest wind tends to weaken, and vice versa. This circulation pattern can affect the change of the spring dust storm frequency in Northwest China on decadal time scales.     

冬季北半球风暴轴的协同变化及其与大气环流的相互作用

基于1971—2016年NCEP/NCAR的逐日、逐月再分析资料,研究冬季北半球西伯利亚风暴轴(Siberian Storm Track,SIST)、北太平洋风暴轴(Pacific Storm Track,PST)和北大西洋风暴轴(Atlantic Storm Track,AST)的协同变化特征及其与大气环流的关系。结果表明:(1)三大风暴轴不仅各自的位置与强度变化存在显著相关性,风暴轴之间也存在一定的协同变化且年代际尺度上比年际尺度上更紧密。年际尺度上,SIST与AST的经度变化呈显著负相关,而PST和AST的协同性较差;年代际尺度上,SIST与PST的经、纬度变化均呈弱的负相关,SIST与AST的经度和强度变化均呈显著正相关,PST与AST的经、纬度变化均呈显著负相关。(2)由联合EOF分析得到北半球风暴轴的协同变化时空特征:在年际尺度上,第一模态主要表现为SIST偏弱(强),PST主体偏弱(强)、东南偏强(弱),AST略偏北(南)偏强(弱)但不显著的协同变化。PC1为正位相时,对应的大气环流异常为:500 hPa高度场上为太平洋北美(Pacific North America,PNA)型和欧亚(Eurasian,EU)型的正位相,东亚急流偏强且偏南;第二模态主要表现为SIST偏强(弱)且偏东(西),PST中东部偏南(北)、西部强度偏强(弱),AST偏强(弱)的协同变化。PC2为正位相时,对应的大气环流异常为:500 hPa高度场上为PNA型和大西洋东部(East Atlantic,EA)型的正位相,北美急流减弱;在年代际尺度上,第一模态主要表现为SIST偏西(东)且偏弱(强),PST偏东(西)且偏弱(强),AST偏西(东)且偏弱(强)的协同变化。PC1为正位相时,对应的大气环流异常为:500 hPa高度场上为西大西洋(West Atlantic,WA)型和EU型的正位相。第二模态主要表现为SIST偏强(弱)且偏北(南),PST偏南(北)且偏弱(强),AST北抬(南压)的协同变化。PC2为正位相时,对应的大气环流异常为:500 hPa高度场上为EU型和WA型的正位相,东亚急流强度加强且偏南,北美急流强度减弱。     

On the Forced Tangentially-Averaged Radial- Vertical Circulation within Vortices Part Ⅰ: Concepts and Equations

将Eliassen建立在平面等压柱坐标系中的径向环流强迫理论（用于研究在摩擦力和非绝热加热过程影响下的静止对称涡旋），推广应用到研究移动非对称气旋或反气旋的径向环流，导出了考虑地球曲面影响的准拉格朗日等压柱坐标系的切向平均径向环流诊断方程，并根据Eliassen的解析解所揭示的涡旋径向环流在涡旋演变中的作用，定 性地讨论了各种热力和动力的作用，这些热力和动力因子除了磨擦力和非绝热加热外，还有平均和涡动形式的惯性力，角动量平流（相当涡度平流），角动量的垂直对流，温度平流，温度的垂直对流（相当绝热加热）等。     

The characteristics of the forced stationary planetary wave propagations in summer Northern Hemisphere

The three-dimensional propagations of the forced stationary planetary waves in a realistic summer current, in which the vertical and horizontal wind shears are included, are discussed by using the refractive index squared of waves in a spherical coordinate system.The results show that there is no polar wave guide in stationary planetary wave propagations in summer. Thus, stationary planetary waves cannot propagate into the stratosphere. However, there are a wave guide pointing from the subtropics toward middle and high latitudes in the troposphere and another wave guide pointing from the lower troposphere at middle latitudes toward the upper troposphere near 30°oN in the forced stationary planetary wave propagations.A linearized, steady-state, quasi-geostrophic 34-level spherical coordinate model with Rayleigh friction and Newtonian cooling, horizontal kinematic thermal diffusivity is used to simulate the wave guides of three-dimensional propagations of stationary planetary waves in summer.     

7月不同形态南亚高压与北半球大气环流的关系

利用NCEP/NCAR月平均高度场和风场再分析资料,分析了1948—2013年7月南亚高压多中心特征及其与北半球大气环流的关系。结果表明:1)南亚高压存在1至5个中心不等,其中以双中心类和三中心类为主,占总样本数的82%,其次是单中心类,占总样本数的14%,四中心类和五中心类仅占总样本数的3%。2)根据高压中心个数、经向位置和环流特征,将不同类高压分成了不同型,其中单中心类分为Ⅰ1型和Ⅰ2型,分别占该类的44%和56%,双中心类分为Ⅱ1型、Ⅱ2型和Ⅱ3型,分别占该类的66.7%、18.5%和14.8%,三中心类仅考虑了Ⅲ1型,占该类的67%。3)Ⅰ1型高压中心在伊朗高原上空,Ⅰ2型高压中心在青藏高原上空,Ⅱ1型两高压中心分别在伊朗高原和青藏高原上空,Ⅱ2型两高压中心分别在伊朗高原和我国东部西太平洋上空,Ⅱ3型两高压中心分别在青藏高原和我国东部西太平洋上空,Ⅲ1型三个高压中心分别在伊朗高原、青藏高原和我国东部西太平洋上空。4)不同类型的高压中心所在地区高层位势高度场和对流层中上层温度场都表现为显著正异常,且不同区域温度场异常的维持机制不相同。     

2018年7月北半球极端天气气候事件及环流特征分析

2018年7月北半球天气气候显著异常,极端事件高发。欧洲、北非、东亚以及北美的大部分地区均遭受严重的高温热浪侵袭;印度、东南亚、中国西南部以及日本西部等地出现极端降水;西太平洋台风活动异常活跃,移动路径偏北。初步诊断表明,北半球中高纬度,由低层到高层稳定维持的异常高压系统是导致北半球中高纬度大部分地区高温热浪持续发生的直接原因。其中异常偏强、偏北的副热带高压,以及增强、东伸的南亚高压与东亚地区持续高温和极端降水事件直接相关;低层菲律宾周围异常活跃的对流活动和强盛的西南水汽输送共同导致南亚、东南亚地区极端降水发生。热带太平洋大部分地区偏暖的海温条件和菲律宾附近异常气旋性环流则与异常活跃的台风活动有关。更需要关注的是,北半球尤其是东亚地区大气环流的异常主要受海洋表面热力状况以及其他区域大气环流遥相关的影响。     

Interdecadal variability of regional climate change: implications for the development of regional climate change scenarios

Summary Illustrative examples are discussed of the interdecadal variability features of the regional climate change signal in 5 AOGCM transient simulations. It is shown that the regional precipitation change signal is characterized by large variability at decadal to multidecadal scales, with the structure of the variability varying markedly across regions. Conversely, the regional temperature change signal shows low interdecadal variability. Results are compared across scenarios, models and different realizations with the same model. Our analysis indicates that, at the decadal scale, linear scaling of the regional climate change signal by the global temperature change works relatively well for temperature but less so for precipitation. The nonlinear fraction of the climate change signal tends to decrease with the magnitude of the signal. The implications of interdecadal variability for the generation of regional climate change scenarios are discussed, in particular concerning the use of multi-experiment ensembles to produce such scenarios.     

Changes in the normal mode energetics of the general atmospheric circulation in a warmer climate

Changes in the normal mode energetics of the general atmospheric circulation are assessed for the northern winter season (DJF) in a warmer climate, using the outputs of four climate models from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project, Phase 3. The energetics changes are characterized by significant increases in both the zonal mean and eddy components for the barotropic and the deeper baroclinic modes, whereas for the shallower baroclinic modes both the zonal mean and eddy components decrease. Significant increases are predominant in the large-scale eddies, both barotropic and baroclinic, while the opposite is found in eddies of smaller scales. While the generation rate of zonal mean available potential energy has globally increased in the barotropic component, leading to an overall strengthening in the barotropic energetics terms, it has decreased in the baroclinic component, leading to a general weakening in the baroclinic energetics counterpart. These global changes, which indicate a strengthening of the energetics in the upper troposphere and lower stratosphere (UTLS), sustained by enhanced baroclinic eddies of large horizontal scales, and a weakening below, mostly driven by weaker baroclinic eddies of intermediate to small scales, appear together with an increased transfer rate of kinetic energy from the eddies to the zonal mean flow and a significant increase in the barotropic zonal mean kinetic energy. The conversion rates between available potential energy and kinetic energy, C, were further decomposed into the contributions by the rotational (Rossby) and divergent (gravity) components of the circulation field. The eddy component of C is due to the conversion of potential energy of the rotational adjusted mass field into kinetic energy by the work realized in the eddy divergent motion. The zonal mean component of C is accomplished by two terms which nearly cancel each other out. One is related to the Hadley cell and involves the divergent component of both wind and geopotential, while the other is associated to the Ferrel cell and incorporates the divergent wind with the rotationally adjusted mass field. Global magnitude increases were found in the zonal mean components of these two terms for the warmer climate, which could be the result of a strengthening and/or widening of both meridional cells. On the other hand, the results suggest a strengthening of these conversion rates in the UTLS and a weakening below, that is consistent with the rising of the tropopause in response to global warming.