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1.
通量距平强迫模式比较计划(FAFMIP)是第六次国际耦合模式比较计划(CMIP6)的子计划之一。FAFMIP共设计了5组试验,利用CMIP6中的大气-海洋耦合环流模式(AOGCM)对海表施加动量通量、热通量和淡水通量扰动,旨在研究在CO2强迫下模式模拟的海洋热吸收,由热膨胀引起的全球平均海平面上升,及由海洋密度和环流导致的动力海平面变化等方面的不确定性。  相似文献   

2.
Atmosphere?Cocean general circulation models (AOGCMs) predict a weakening of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) in response to anthropogenic forcing of climate, but there is a large model uncertainty in the magnitude of the predicted change. The weakening of the AMOC is generally understood to be the result of increased buoyancy input to the north Atlantic in a warmer climate, leading to reduced convection and deep water formation. Consistent with this idea, model analyses have shown empirical relationships between the AMOC and the meridional density gradient, but this link is not direct because the large-scale ocean circulation is essentially geostrophic, making currents and pressure gradients orthogonal. Analysis of the budget of kinetic energy (KE) instead of momentum has the advantage of excluding the dominant geostrophic balance. Diagnosis of the KE balance of the HadCM3 AOGCM and its low-resolution version FAMOUS shows that KE is supplied to the ocean by the wind and dissipated by viscous forces in the global mean of the steady-state control climate, and the circulation does work against the pressure-gradient force, mainly in the Southern Ocean. In the Atlantic Ocean, however, the pressure-gradient force does work on the circulation, especially in the high-latitude regions of deep water formation. During CO2-forced climate change, we demonstrate a very good temporal correlation between the AMOC strength and the rate of KE generation by the pressure-gradient force in 50?C70°N of the Atlantic Ocean in each of nine contemporary AOGCMs, supporting a buoyancy-driven interpretation of AMOC changes. To account for this, we describe a conceptual model, which offers an explanation of why AOGCMs with stronger overturning in the control climate tend to have a larger weakening under CO2 increase.  相似文献   

3.

Sea levels of different atmosphere–ocean general circulation models (AOGCMs) respond to climate change forcing in different ways, representing a crucial uncertainty in climate change research. We isolate the role of the ocean dynamics in setting the spatial pattern of dynamic sea-level (ζ) change by forcing several AOGCMs with prescribed identical heat, momentum (wind) and freshwater flux perturbations. This method produces a ζ projection spread comparable in magnitude to the spread that results from greenhouse gas forcing, indicating that the differences in ocean model formulation are the cause, rather than diversity in surface flux change. The heat flux change drives most of the global pattern of ζ change, while the momentum and water flux changes cause locally confined features. North Atlantic heat uptake causes large temperature and salinity driven density changes, altering local ocean transport and ζ. The spread between AOGCMs here is caused largely by differences in their regional transport adjustment, which redistributes heat that was already in the ocean prior to perturbation. The geographic details of the ζ change in the North Atlantic are diverse across models, but the underlying dynamic change is similar. In contrast, the heat absorbed by the Southern Ocean does not strongly alter the vertically coherent circulation. The Arctic ζ change is dissimilar across models, owing to differences in passive heat uptake and circulation change. Only the Arctic is strongly affected by nonlinear interactions between the three air-sea flux changes, and these are model specific.

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4.
The second version of the Chinese Academy of Sciences Earth System Model(CAS-ESM2.0)is participating in the Flux-Anomaly-Forced Model Intercomparison Project(FAFMIP)experiments in phase 6 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project(CMIP6).The purpose of FAFMIP is to understand and reduce the uncertainty of ocean climate changes in response to increased CO2 forcing in atmosphere-ocean general circulation models(AOGCMs),including the simulations of ocean heat content(OHC)change,ocean circulation change,and sea level rise due to thermal expansion.FAFMIP experiments(including faf-heat,faf-stress,faf-water,faf-all,faf-passiveheat,faf-heat-NA50pct and faf-heat-NA0pct)have been conducted.All of the experiments were integrated over a 70-year period and the corresponding data have been uploaded to the Earth System Grid Federation data server for CMIP6 users to download.This paper describes the experimental design and model datasets and evaluates the preliminary results of CAS-ESM2.0 simulations of ocean climate changes in the FAFMIP experiments.The simulations of the changes in global ocean temperature,Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation(AMOC),OHC,and dynamic sea level(DSL),are all reasonably reproduced.  相似文献   

5.
Various ocean reanalysis data reveal that the subarctic Atlantic sea surface temperature (SST) has been cooling during the twentieth century. A similar cooling pattern is found in the doubling CO2 experiment obtained from the CMIP3 (coupled model intercomparison project third phase) compared to the pre-industrial experiment. Here, in order to investigate the main driver of this cooling, we perform the heat budget analysis on the subarctic Atlantic upper ocean temperature. The net surface heat flux associated with the increased concentration of greenhouse gases heats the subarctic ocean surface. In the most of models, the longwave radiation, latent heat flux, and sensible heat flux exert a warming effect, and the shortwave radiation exerts a cooling effect. On the other hand, the thermal advection by the meridional current reduces the subarctic upper ocean temperature in all models. This cold advection is attributed to the weakening of the meridional overturning circulation, which is related to the reduction in the ocean surface density. In particular, greater warming of the surface air than of the sea surface results in the reduction of surface evaporation and thereby enhanced freshening of the ocean surface water, while precipitation change was smaller than evaporation change. The thermal advections by both the wind-driven Ekman current and the density-driven geostrophic current contribute to cooling in most of the models, where the heat transport by the geostrophic current tends to be larger than that by the Ekman current.  相似文献   

6.
Tropical cyclone heat potential (TCHP) in the ocean can affect tropical cyclone intensity and intensification. In this paper, TCHP change under global warming is presented based on 35 models from CMIP5 (Coupled Model Intercomparison Project, Phase 5). As the upper ocean warms up, the TCHP of the global ocean is projected to increase by 140.6% in the 21st century under the RCP4.5 (+4.5 W m-2 Representative Concentration Pathway) scenario. The increase is particularly significant in the western Pacific, northwestern Indian and western tropical Atlantic oceans. The increase of TCHP results from the ocean temperature warming above the depth of the 26°C isotherm (D26), the deepening of D26, and the horizontal area expansion of SST above 26°C. Their contributions are 69.4%, 22.5% and 8.1%, respectively. Further, a suite of numerical experiments with an Ocean General Circulation Model (OGCM) is conducted to investigate the relative importance of wind stress and buoyancy forcing to the TCHP change under global warming. Results show that sea surface warming is the dominant forcing for the TCHP change, while wind stress and sea surface salinity change are secondary.  相似文献   

7.
Under global warming, the predicted intensification of the global freshwater cycle will modify the net freshwater flux at the ocean surface. Since the freshwater flux maintains ocean salinity structures, changes to the density-driven ocean circulation are likely. A modified ocean circulation could further alter the climate, potentially allowing rapid changes, as seen in the past. The relevant feedback mechanisms and timescales are poorly understood in detail, however, especially at low latitudes where the effects of salinity are relatively subtle. In an attempt to resolve some of these outstanding issues, we present an investigation of the climate response of the low-latitude Pacific region to changes in freshwater forcing. Initiated from the present-day thermohaline structure, a control run of a coupled ocean–atmosphere general circulation model is compared with a perturbation run in which the net freshwater flux is prescribed to be zero over the ocean. Such an extreme experiment helps to elucidate the general adjustment mechanisms and their timescales. The atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations are held constant, and we restrict our attention to the adjustment of the upper 1,000 m of the Pacific Ocean between 40°N and 40°S, over 100 years. In the perturbation run, changes to the surface buoyancy, near-surface vertical mixing and mixed-layer depth are established within 1 year. Subsequently, relative to the control run, the surface of the low-latitude Pacific Ocean in the perturbation run warms by an average of 0.6°C, and the interior cools by up to 1.1°C, after a few decades. This vertical re-arrangement of the ocean heat content is shown to be achieved by a gradual shutdown of the heat flux due to isopycnal (i.e. along surfaces of constant density) mixing, the vertical component of which is downwards at low latitudes. This heat transfer depends crucially upon the existence of density-compensating temperature and salinity gradients on isopycnal surfaces. The timescale of the thermal changes in the perturbation run is therefore set by the timescale for the decay of isopycnal salinity gradients in response to the eliminated freshwater forcing, which we demonstrate to be around 10–20 years. Such isopycnal heat flux changes may play a role in the response of the low-latitude climate to a future accelerated freshwater cycle. Specifically, the mechanism appears to represent a weak negative sea surface temperature feedback, which we speculate might partially shield from view the anthropogenically-forced global warming signal at low latitudes. Furthermore, since the surface freshwater flux is shown to play a role in determining the ocean’s thermal structure, it follows that evaporation and/or precipitation biases in general circulation models are likely to cause sea surface temperature biases.  相似文献   

8.
Recent studies have indicated that the multidecadal variations of the Atlantic Warm Pool (AWP) can induce a significant freshwater change in the tropical North Atlantic Ocean. In this paper, the potential effect of the AWP-induced freshwater flux on the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) is studied by performing a series of ocean–sea ice model experiments. Our model experiments demonstrate that ocean response to the anomalous AWP-induced freshwater flux is primarily dominated by the basin-scale gyre circulation adjustments with a time scale of about two decades. The positive (negative) freshwater anomaly leads to an anticyclonic (cyclonic) circulation overlapping the subtropical gyre. This strengthens (weakens) the Gulf Stream and the recirculation in the interior ocean, thus increases warm (cold) water advection to the north and decreases cold (warm) water advection to the south, producing an upper ocean temperature dipole in the midlatitude. As the freshwater (salty water) is advected to the North Atlantic deep convection region, the AMOC and its associated northward heat transport gradually decreases (increases), which in turn lead to an inter-hemispheric SST seesaw. In the equilibrium state, a comma-shaped SST anomaly pattern develops in the extratropical region, with the largest amplitude over the subpolar region and an extension along the east side of the basin and into the subtropical North Atlantic. Based on our model experiments, we argue that the multidecadal AWP-induced freshwater flux can affect the AMOC, which plays a negative feedback role that acts to recover the AMOC after it is weakened or strengthened. The sensitivity of AMOC response to the AWP-induced freshwater forcing amplitude is also examined and discussed.  相似文献   

9.
将8个主要平衡分潮加入到耦合模式中,对比研究潮汐对北大西洋模拟影响。由于潮汐的引入,模式模拟SST在北大西洋中纬度区域偏差显著减小,高纬度区域SST降温明显。SST模拟的改变使潮汐试验的海表净热通量模拟误差下降了约30%,但高纬度海冰显著增加。模式中引入潮汐对北大西洋上层环流,尤其是西边界流的路径模拟改进显著,这是SST及海表净热通量模拟改变的主要原因。同时,北大西洋上层和深层西边界流在潮汐的作用下,都表现出环流减弱的特点,这也使得大西洋经向翻转环流在26.5°N处上层2 km的输送减弱,与观测数据更为接近。较弱的大西洋经向翻转环流导致海洋热量在中低纬度聚集而无法输送到高纬度区域,这是造成潮汐试验模拟的海温在中低纬度偏高、高纬度偏低的原因,较弱的热输送也同时导致了潮汐试验中北半球海冰面积增加。  相似文献   

10.
The Community Climate System Model version 3, (CCSM3) is used to investigate the effect of the high latitude North Atlantic subsurface ocean temperature response in idealized freshwater hosing experiments on the strength of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC). The hosing experiments covered a range of input magnitudes at two locations in a glacial background state. Subsurface subpolar ocean warms when freshwater is added to the high latitude North Atlantic (NATL cases) and weakly cools when freshwater is added to the Gulf of Mexico (GOM cases). All cases show subsurface ocean warming in the Southern Hemisphere (SH). The sensitivity of the AMOC response to the location and magnitude of hosing is related to the induced subsurface temperature response, which affects the magnitude of the large-scale meridional pressure gradient at depth through the effect on upper ocean density. The high latitude subsurface warming induced in the NATL cases lowers the upper ocean density in the deepwater formation region enhancing a density reduction by local freshening. In the GOM cases the effect of SH warming partially offsets the effect of the high latitude freshening on the meridional density gradient. Following the end of hosing, a brief convective event occurs in the largest NATL cases which flushes some of the heat stored in the subsurface layers. This fuels a rapid rise in AMOC that lasts less than a couple of decades before subsequent freshening from increases in precipitation and sea ice melt reverses the initial increase in the meridional density gradient. Thereafter AMOC recovery slows to the rate found in comparable GOM cases. The result for these glacial transient hosing experiments is that the pace of the longer recovery is not sensitive to location of the imposed freshwater forcing.  相似文献   

11.
The change in ocean net surface heat flux plays an important role in the climate system. It is closely related to the ocean heat content change and ocean heat transport, particularly over the North Atlantic, where the ocean loses heat to the atmosphere, affecting the AMOC(Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation) variability and hence the global climate.However, the difference between simulated surface heat fluxes is still large due to poorly represented dynamical processes involving multisca...  相似文献   

12.
宫湛秋  孙诚  李建平  冯娟  谢飞  杨韵  薛佳庆 《大气科学》2019,43(5):1081-1094
大西洋多年代际振荡(AMO)是指发生在北大西洋的海表温度(SST)冷暖异常多年代际(50~80年)振荡的现象。通常AMO被认为是受大西洋经向翻转环流(AMOC)及其对应的海洋动力过程(经向热量输运)的影响。近年来有观点认为,AMO是大气随机热力强迫的产物,大气主导了海气间的热量交换进而影响AMO。弄清AMO和北大西洋海表热通量的因果关系是辨析AMO动力和热力驱动机制的关键。本文利用基于信息流理论的因果分析方法,研究了1880年以来观测的AMO与北大西洋海表热通量间的因果关系。结果表明,在多年代际尺度上,从AMO到海表热通量的信息流要远大于二者相反方向的信息流,这说明AMO是北大西洋海表热通量异常的因,海洋主导了海气间的热量交换。大气随机热力强迫机制无法解释AMO与热通量两者因果分析的结果。对泛大西洋地区的陆地气温和AMO指数进行分析,进一步表明由于海洋主导了海气热量交换,AMO的海温异常加热/冷却控制了绝大多数地区气温的多年代际变化。利用海温驱动的大气环流模式的模拟结果验证了AMO的海温异常对周边陆地气温强迫作用。本文的结果为辨析AMO的动力和热力驱动机制提供了新线索,进一步表明AMO并非是大气随机热力强迫的产物,海洋环流可能是AMO的主要驱动因子。  相似文献   

13.
Previous studies have shown that wind-forced baroclinic Rossby waves can capture a large portion of low-frequency steric sea surface height (SSH) variations in the North Atlantic. In this paper, the classical wind-driven Rossby wave model derived in a 1.5-layer ocean is extended to include surface buoyancy forcing, and the new model is then used to assess the contribution from buoyancy-forced Rossby waves to low-frequency North Atlantic steric SSH variations. Buoyancy forcing is determined from surface heating as freshwater fluxes are negligible. It is found that buoyancy-forced Rossby waves are important in only a few regions belonging to the subtropical-to-midlatitude and eastern subpolar North Atlantic. In these regions, the new Rossby wave model accounts for 25%–70% of low-frequency steric SSH variations. Furthermore, as part of the analysis it is also shown that a simple static model driven by local surface heat fluxes captures 60%–75% of low-frequency steric SSH variations in the Labrador Sea, which is a region where Rossby waves are found to have no influence on the steric SSH.  相似文献   

14.
表层洋流对外强迫响应敏感度的数值研究   总被引:2,自引:1,他引:1  
利用数值模拟研究了海表流场对外强迫(风应力和海表热通量)的响应特征,探讨了其对该类外强迫异常响应的敏感性以及较敏感区域。在确认本文所用的海洋环流模式能够较好地模拟表层海洋流场的气候状态之后,通过几个敏感性试验与控制(对照)试验结果的比较,发现海洋表层环流对海表风应力异常响应的敏感区域主要在赤道附近及大洋西边界海区;相对于热带外地区,热带海域(20°S~20°N)的风应力异常对于大洋表层环流的变化有着更重要的显著作用,它不仅会导致热带海域表层流场有较大的变化,对中高纬海区的表层流场特别是西边界流也有明显影响;海洋表层环流对海表热通量异常的响应除了在赤道附近海域明显之外,在中高纬海区也十分显著;在外强迫有同等异常幅度(20%)的情况下,大洋西边界海域对热通量的响应明显要强于对风应力的响应。此外,热通量异常还对南太平洋东海岸的洋流和南极大陆的绕极环流有较为明显的影响。  相似文献   

15.
We have undertaken a comparative study of the mechanisms which drive the response of the Atlantic thermohaline circulation (THC) to a fourfold increase in CO2 over 70 years with stabilisation thereafter in HadCM2 and HadCM3. In both models, the THC changes are driven by surface flux forcing, with advection (and diffusion in HadCM2) acting in the opposite sense to limit the circulation change. In both cases, heat fluxes are more important than those of freshwater. We find that different patterns of heat flux forcing in HadCM2 and HadCM3 are the prime determinants of the differing response in the two models. The increased northerly component to the near surface winds (associated with an increase in reflective low level cloud), leads to enhanced heat loss in the west-central North Atlantic, which in turn tends to steepen the steric gradient and strengthen the THC. By contrast, in HadCM3 the winds become more westerly rather than northerly, there is no dynamically-forced enhancement of surface heat loss, and the heat flux in the North Atlantic continues to be strongly positive, relative to the control, leading to a reduction in the meridional steric gradient, and a weaker overturning circulation. Differences in atmospheric response patterns appear to be caused by improvements to atmospheric and land surface physics, and suggest that the THC response in HadCM2 is less credible than in HadCM3.  相似文献   

16.
State-of-the-art coupled general circulation models(CGCMs)are used to predict ocean heat uptake(OHU)and sealevel change under global warming.However,the projections of different models vary,resulting in high uncertainty.Much of the inter-model spread is driven by responses to surface heat perturbations.This study mainly focuses on the response of the ocean to a surface heat flux perturbation F,as prescribed by the Flux-Anomaly-Forced Model Intercomparison Project(FAFMIP).The results of ocean model were compared with those of a CGCM with the same ocean component.On the global scale,the changes in global mean temperature,ocean heat content(OHC),and steric sea level(SSL)simulated in the OGCM are generally consistent with CGCM simulations.Differences in changes in ocean temperature,OHC,and SSL between the two models primarily occur in the Arctic and Atlantic Oceans(AA)and the Southern Ocean(SO)basins.In addition to the differences in surface heat flux anomalies between the two models,differences in heat exchange between basins also play an important role in the inconsistencies in ocean climate changes in the AA and SO basins.These discrepancies are largely due to both the larger initial value and the greater weakening change of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation(AMOC)in CGCM.The greater weakening of the AMOC in the CGCM is associated with the atmosphere–ocean feedback and the lack of a restoring salinity boundary condition.Furthermore,differences in surface salinity boundary conditions between the two models contribute to discrepancies in SSL changes.  相似文献   

17.
The mechanisms involved in the variability of Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) are studied using a 2000-yr control simulation of the coupled Fast Ocean-Atmosphere Model (FOAM).This study identifies a coupled mode between SST and surface heat flux in the North Atlantic at the decadal timescale,as well as a forcing mode of surface heat flux at the interannual timescale.The coupled mode is regulated by AMOC through meridional heat transport.The increase in surface heating in the North Atlantic weakens the AMOC approximately 10 yr later,and the weakened AMOC in turn decreases SST and sea surface salinity.The decreased SST results in an increase in surface heating in the North Atlantic,thus forming a positive feedback loop.Meanwhile,the weakened AMOC weakens northward heat transport and therefore lowers subsurface temperature approximately 19 yr later,which prevents the AMOC from weakening.In the forcing mode,the surface heat flux leads AMOC by approximately 4 yr.  相似文献   

18.
Zhaomin Wang 《Climate Dynamics》2005,25(2-3):299-314
The McGill Paleoclimate Model-2 (MPM-2) is employed to study climate–thermohaline circulation (THC) interactions in a pre -industrial climate, with a special focus on the feedbacks on the THC from other climate system components. The MPM-2, a new version of the MPM, has an extended model domain from 90S to 90N, active winds and no oceanic heat and freshwater flux adjustments. In the MPM-2, there are mainly two stable modes for the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (MOC) under the ‘present-day’ forcing (present-day solar forcing and the pre-industrial atmospheric CO2 level of 280 ppm). The ‘on’ mode has an active North Atlantic deep water formation, while the ‘off’ mode has no such deep water formation. By comparing the ‘off’ mode climate state with its ‘on’ mode analogue, we find that there exist many large differences between the two climate states, which originate from large changes in the oceanic meridional heat transports. By suppressing or isolating each process associated with a continental ice sheet over North America, sea ice, the atmospheric hydrological cycle and vegetation, feedbacks from these components on the Atlantic MOC are investigated. Sensitivity studies investigating the role of varying continental ice growth and sea ice meridional transport in the resumption of the Atlantic MOC are also carried out. The results show that a fast ice sheet growth and an enhanced southward sea ice transport significantly favor the resumption of the Atlantic MOC in the MPM-2. In contrast to this, the feedback from the atmospheric hydrological cycle is a weak positive one. The vegetation-albedo feedback could enhance continental ice sheet growth and thus could also favor the resumption of the Atlantic MOC. However, before the shut-down of the Atlantic MOC, feedbacks from these components on the Atlantic MOC are very weak.  相似文献   

19.
A global hybrid coupled model is developed, with the aim of studying the effects of ocean-atmosphere feedbacks on the stability of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation. The model includes a global ocean general circulation model and a statistical atmosphere model. The statistical atmosphere model is based on linear regressions of data from a fully coupled climate model on sea surface temperature both locally and hemispherically averaged, being the footprint of Atlantic meridional overturning variability. It provides dynamic boundary conditions to the ocean model for heat, freshwater and wind-stress. A basic but consistent representation of ocean-atmosphere feedbacks is captured in the hybrid coupled model and it is more than 10 times faster than the fully coupled climate model. The hybrid coupled model reaches a steady state with a climate close to the one of the fully coupled climate model, and the two models also have a similar response (collapse) of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation to a freshwater hosing applied in the northern North Atlantic.  相似文献   

20.
Abstract

The role of sea‐ice in affecting the stability and long‐term variability of the oceanic thermohaline circulation (THC) is studied in this paper. The emphasis is placed on studying how sea‐ice might affect the stability and the long‐term variability of the THC through modulations of the surface heat and freshwater fluxes. A simple box model is analyzed to elucidate qualitatively the distinct physical meanings of these two processes. The analytical solution of this simple model indicates that, for the long timescales considered here, the thermal insulation stabilizes the THC while the freshwater feedback increases the effective inertia of the coupled ice‐ocean system. Sea‐ice insulation lessens the negative feedback between heat flux and the SST, and therefore, allows the SST to play a greater role in counteracting changes of the THC and high latitude salinity field. The freshwater feedback effectively links the surface heat flux to a freshwater reservoir, and thus, increases the effective inertia of the coupled ocean‐ice system. A two‐dimensional ocean model coupled with a thermodynamic sea‐ice model is used to estimate quantitatively the magnitudes of these two feedbacks. The numerical experiments involve the model's responses both to initial anomalies and to changes of forcing fields. For the free response cases (model responses to initial anomalies without changing the forcing fields), the model shows that the decay rate of an initial anomaly is greater when sea‐ice is included. For small perturbations the thermal insulation effect dominates over the freshwater feedback. The latter becomes increasingly more important for larger perturbations. In response to a change of external forcing, the presence of sea‐ice reduces the magnitude and the pace of the model's response. The numerical results are qualitatively consistent with the analytical solution of the box model.  相似文献   

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