Solar Cycle Predictions based on Solar Activity at Different Solar Latitudes

Many methods of predictions of sunspot maximum number use data before or at the preceding sunspot minimum to correlate with the following sunspot maximum of the same cycle, which occurs a few years later. Kane and Trivedi (Solar Phys. 68, 135, 1980) found that correlations of R _z(max) (the maximum in the 12-month running means of sunspot number R _z) with R _z(min) (the minimum in the 12-month running means of sunspot number R _z) in the solar latitude belt 20° – 40°, particularly in the southern hemisphere, exceeded 0.6 and was still higher (0.86) for the narrower belt > 30° S. Recently, Javaraiah (Mon. Not. Roy. Astron. Soc. 377, L34, 2007) studied the relationship of sunspot areas at different solar latitudes and reported correlations 0.95 – 0.97 between minima and maxima of sunspot areas at low latitudes and sunspot maxima of the next cycle, and predictions could be made with an antecedence of more than 11 years. For the present study, we selected another parameter, namely, SGN, the sunspot group number (irrespective of their areas) and found that SGN(min) during a sunspot minimum year at latitudes > 30° S had a correlation +0.78±0.11 with the sunspot number R _z(max) of the same cycle. Also, the SGN during a sunspot minimum year in the latitude belt (10° – 30° N) had a correlation +0.87±0.07 with the sunspot number R _z(max) of the next cycle. We obtain an appropriate regression equation, from which our prediction for the coming cycle 24 is R _z(max )=129.7±16.3.     

Correlation of Solar Indices with Solar euv Fluxes

The paper presents a more extensive comparison of Extreme Ultraviolet (EUV) irradiances during AE-E (1977–1980), Pioneer Venus (1979–1992) and SEM/SOHO (1996 onwards) with other solar indices than has been discussed previously. For long-term changes (solar cycle), all indices had similar trends and inter-correlations were high, so that any one could serve as a proxy for the other. For intermediate time-scales (monthly means), only L, F10 (2800 MHz) and Mgii had reasonably high correlations with EUV. The 2695 MHz radio emission also had a high correlation. For daily values, data for many indices are intermittant and these cannot serve as proxies. Again, only L, F10 (and 2695 MHz), Mgii stand out as possible proxies for EUV, particularly during intervals of strong 27-day sequences.     

Prediction of Solar Cycle Maximum Using Solar Cycle Lengths

If the rise time RT, fall time FT, and total time TT (i.e., RT+FT) of a solar cycle are compared against the maximum amplitude Rz(max ) for the following cycle, then only the association between TT and Rz(max ) is inferred to be well anticorrelated, inferring that the larger (smaller) the value of Rz(max ) for the following cycle, the shorter (longer) the TT of the preceding cycle. Although the inferred correlation (−0.68) is statistically significant, the inferred standard error of estimate is quite large, so predictions using the inferred correlation are not very precise. Removal of cycle pairs 15/16, 19/20, and 20/21 (statistical outliers) yields a regression that is highly statistically significant (−0.85) and reduces the standard error of estimate by 18%. On the basis of the adjusted regression and presuming TT=140 months for cycle 23, the present ongoing cycle, cycle 24’s 90% prediction interval for Rz(max ) is estimated to be about 94±44, inferring only a 5% probability that its Rz(max ) will be larger than about 140, unless of course cycle pair 23/24 is a statistical outlier.     

Fast Imaging Solar Spectrograph of the 1.6 Meter New Solar Telescope at Big Bear Solar Observatory

For high resolution spectral observations of the Sun – particularly its chromosphere, we have developed a dual-band echelle spectrograph named Fast Imaging Solar Spectrograph (FISS), and installed it in a vertical optical table in the Coudé Lab of the 1.6 meter New Solar Telescope at Big Bear Solar Observatory. This instrument can cover any part of the visible and near-infrared spectrum, but it usually records the Hα band and the Ca ii 8542 Å band simultaneously using two CCD cameras, producing data well suited for the study of the structure and dynamics of the chromosphere and filaments/prominences. The instrument does imaging of high quality using a fast scan of the slit across the field of view with the aid of adaptive optics. We describe its design, specifics, and performance as well as data processing     

The Solar Irradiance Spectrum at Solar Activity Minimum Between Solar Cycles 23 and 24

On 7 February 2008, the SOLAR payload was placed onboard the International Space Station. It is composed of three instruments, two spectrometers and a radiometer. The two spectrometers allow us to cover the 16?–?2900 nm spectral range. In this article, we first briefly present the instrumentation, its calibration and its performance in orbit. Second, the solar spectrum measured during the transition between Solar Cycles 23 to 24 at the time of the minimum is shown and compared with other data sets. Its accuracy is estimated as a function of wavelength and the solar atmosphere brightness-temperature is calculated and compared with those derived from two theoretical models.     

Flattening Index of the Solar Corona and the Solar Cycle

The photometrical flattening index of the solar corona a+b is defined according to Ludendorff. In this paper we have investigated how the flattening index varies with respect to the phase of solar activity and the sunspot number. We have compiled 170 values of the flattening index using the data on 60 total solar eclipses from 1851 to 2010. We have found that the flattening index takes values from 0 to 0.4, and is anticorrelated with solar activity. The value of the flattening index at the beginning of solar cycle 24 was used as a precursor to forecast the amplitude of the cycle. It was found that the amplitude of solar cycle 24 will be about 95 in terms of the smoothed monthly sunspot numbers.     

Solar Rotation Rate during Solar Activity Cycle 23

We studied the solar rotation rate and its temporal change, using the sunspot data obtained during activity cycle 23 (1996 – 2006). The equatorial rotation rate is nearly the same as in the former cycle 22, while the latitudinal gradient of differential rotation considerably increased. Comparison of our results with others indicates the existence of a long-term periodicity of about eight cycles in differential rotation. In addition, no significant asymmetry in differential rotation between the northern and southern hemispheres during cycle 23 was found. The equatorial rotation rate and the latitudinal gradient of the differential rotation in the period of cycle 23 are approximately constant, except for the initial and final phases in the cycle.     

Solar convection

The hydrodynamics of solar convection is reviewed. In particular, a discussion is given of convection on the scale of granulation; i.e., the energy carrying convection patterns in the solar surface layers, and its penetration into the stable layers of the solar photosphere. Convection on global and intermediate scales, and interaction with rotation and magnetic fields is discussed briefly.     

Solar Orbiter

The heliosphere represents a uniquely accessible domain of space, where fundamental physical processes common to solar, astrophysical and laboratory plasmas can be studied under conditions impossible to reproduce on Earth and unfeasible to observe from astronomical distances. Solar Orbiter, the first mission of ESA’s Cosmic Vision 2015?–?2025 programme, will address the central question of heliophysics: How does the Sun create and control the heliosphere? In this paper, we present the scientific goals of the mission and provide an overview of the mission implementation.     

第22和23太阳周太阳活动预测

本文首先分析指出第22太阳周前半周的太阳活动所具有的特点:(1)有最高的起始极小值;(2)上升速度快;(3)升段时间最短;(4)峰期长,可能有双峰;(5)个别时段活动水平极高.然后对第22周后半周的活动情况做了预计:在后半周将可能观测到大约2800个活动区,28000个耀斑,210个X级X射线爆发和大约80次太阳质子事件.最后,应用本文给出的太阳周参量关系式.预报第23周太阳黑子数月均平滑值的峰值为119,位于2001.6年.     

Temperature of Solar Prominences Obtained with the Fast Imaging Solar Spectrograph on the 1.6 m New Solar Telescope at the Big Bear Solar Observatory

We observed solar prominences with the Fast Imaging Solar Spectrograph (FISS) at the Big Bear Solar Observatory on 30 June 2010 and 15 August 2011. To determine the temperature of the prominence material, we applied a nonlinear least-squares fitting of the radiative transfer model. From the Doppler broadening of the Hα and Ca ii lines, we determined the temperature and nonthermal velocity separately. The ranges of temperature and nonthermal velocity were 4000?–?20?000 K and 4?–?11 km?s^?1. We also found that the temperature varied much from point to point within one prominence.     

Solar Extreme Ultraviolet Irradiance Measurements During Solar Cycle 22

The solar extreme ultraviolet (EUV) irradiance, the dominant global energy source for Earth's atmosphere above 100 km, is not known accurately enough for many studies of the upper atmosphere. During the absence of direct solar EUV irradiance measurements from satellites, the solar EUV irradiance is often estimated at the 30–50% uncertainty level using both proxies of the solar irradiance and earlier solar EUV irradiance measurements, primarily from the Air Force Geophysics Laboratory (now Phillips Laboratory) rockets and Atmospheric Explorer (AE) instruments. Our sounding rocket measurements during solar cycle 22 include solar EUV irradiances below 120 nm with 0.2 nm spectral resolution, far ultraviolet (FUV) airglow spectra below 160 nm, and solar soft X-ray (XUV) images at 17.5 nm. Compared to the earlier observations, these rocket experiments provide a more accurate absolute measurement of the solar EUV irradiance, because these instruments are calibrated at the National Institute of Standards and Technology (NIST) with a radiometric uncertainty of about 8%. These more accurate sounding-rocket measurements suggest revisions of the previous reference AE–E spectra by as much as a factor of 2 at some wavelengths. Our sounding-rocket flights during the past several years (1988–1994) also provide information about solar EUV variability during solar cycle 22.     

Solar Cycle Variation in Solar f-Mode Frequencies and Radius

Using data from the Global Oscillation Network Group (GONG) covering the period from 1995 to 1998, we study the change with solar activity in solar f-mode frequencies. The results are compared with similar changes detected from the Michelson Doppler Imager (MDI) data. We find variations in f-mode frequencies which are correlated with solar activity indices. If these changes are due to variation in solar radius then the implications are that the solar radius decreases by about 5 km from minimum to maximum activity.     

第23太阳活动周发展趋势预测

利用压强改正莫斯科中子监测值,对第２３太阳活动周的未来发展趋势作了预测,推测第 ２３周太阳活动和第 ２２周相当,约在 ２００１年达到 １５１± １６的极大月平均黑子相对数．     

Intermittency of the Solar Magnetic Field and Solar Magnetic Activity Cycle

Small-scale solar magnetic fields demonstrate features of fractal intermittent behavior, which requires quantification. For this purpose we investigate how the observational estimate of the solar magnetic flux density \(B\) depends on resolution \(D\) in order to obtain the scaling \(\ln B_{D} = - k \ln D +a\) in a reasonably wide range. The quantity \(k\) demonstrates cyclic variations typical of a solar activity cycle. In addition, \(k\) depends on the magnetic flux density, i.e. the ratio of the magnetic flux to the area over which the flux is calculated, at a given instant. The quantity \(a\) demonstrates some cyclic variation, but it is much weaker than in the case of \(k\). The scaling obtained generalizes previous scalings found for the particular cycle phases. The scaling is typical of fractal structures. In our opinion, the results obtained trace small-scale action in the solar convective zone and its coexistence with the conventional large-scale solar dynamo based on differential rotation and mirror-asymmetric convection.     

太阳活动与太阳自转速率变化关系的分析

研究发现,太阳自转速率的变化与太阳活动之间存在一定的联系,但是不同学者的研究结论存在着矛盾:有的认为两者为正相关,而有的却认为是负相关.究竟两者之间是什么关系,需要做进一步深入的分析.利用EEMD (Ensemble Empirical Mode Decomposition)等方法对太阳自转速率和太阳黑子数据序列进行相关关系以及相位关系的计算和分析,以探讨太阳自转速率变化与太阳活动之间的关系.研究发现:两者的长期趋势项分量呈显著负相关;在11 yr左右周期分量上,观测到的太阳自转速率滞后太阳黑子的变化约2 yr时,呈显著负相关关系,超前3 yr时呈现次显著的正相关;对太阳活动第12–23周各周内部太阳黑子与太阳自转速率的相关分析表明,两者的关系比较复杂,但负相关关系更为显著.这为进一步理解太阳活动变化与太阳自转速率变化之间的成因联系提供了新的依据.     

The Variation of Solar Wind Correlation Lengths Over Three Solar Cycles

We present the results of a study of solar wind velocity and magnetic field correlation lengths over the last 35 years. The correlation length of the magnetic field magnitude λ _|B| increases on average by a factor of two at solar maxima compared to solar minima. The correlation lengths of the components of the magnetic field l_BXYZ\lambda_{B_{XYZ}} and of the velocity l_VYZ\lambda_{V_{YZ}} do not show this change and have similar values, indicating a continual turbulent correlation length of around 1.4×10⁶ km. We conclude that a linear relation between λ _|B|, VB ², and Kp suggests that the former is related to the total magnetic energy in the solar wind and an estimate of the average size of geoeffective structures, which is, in turn, proportional to VB ². By looking at the distribution of daily correlation lengths we show that the solar minimum values of λ _|B| correspond to the turbulent outer scale. A tail of larger λ _|B| values is present at solar maximum causing the increase in mean value.     

Detection of Solar Neutrinos

The present status of solar neutrino detection is reviewed. Results from the Homestake, Kamiokande, Super-Kamiokande, GALLEX and SAGE detectors all show a deficit when compared to recent standard solar model calculations. Two of these detectors, GALLEX and SAGE, have recently been checked with artificial 51Cr neutrino sources. It is shown that astrophysical scenarios to solve the solar neutrino problems are not favoured by the data. There is hope that the results of Super-Kamiokande and the forthcoming solar neutrino experiments can provide the answers to the open questions. This revised version was published online in July 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.