陆面过程模式研发中的问题

陆面过程研究是充分理解天气/气候/地球系统过程不可或缺的重要主题。本文全面梳理了当前用于数值天气/气候/地球系统模式的陆面过程模式研制的问题,建议了当前陆面过程模式研制中需加强和改进完善的关键内容。特别强调在新一代模式研发中建立包含人类活动的高分辨率全球陆面过程模式;特别强调与其他学科相结合,形成不同行业的预报预测系统或研究方法和工具。建议建设中国的集模式发展、数据分析、模拟方法、高性能计算、数据可视化和应用示范为一体的陆面模拟综合集成平台,为天气/气候/地球系统模式提供陆面过程模式,为开展精细化的全球和区域陆面水文-气象-生态的预报预测提供科技支撑。     

白垩纪温室气候机制的模拟研究评述

 白垩纪是地质史上一个典型的温室气候时期,国际上围绕白垩纪气候成因开展了一系列模拟研究。在评述白垩纪古气候模拟的基础上,讨论了气候模式的应用和发展、古气候边界场设置和模拟试验,分析白垩纪温室气体、古地理、古海洋以及海陆生态系统对气候的作用和反馈。这些古气候模拟试验锁定在气候变化的关键时段和驱动因子、测试地球内外动力和地球各圈层反馈作用,可为认识温室气候的成因、探讨气候变化内在机制和预测未来气候提供重要的科学依据。     

中国地球气候系统模式的发展及其模拟和预估

地球气候系统模式是开展多学科、多圈层集成研究的重要平台,其发展是国际地学领域特别是全球变化领域竞争的前沿。中国的地球气候系统模式研发工作始于20世纪80年代,最近10年得到快速发展。研发格局上已经形成中国科学院、有关部委和高校三足鼎立的局面。文中在简要回顾中国地球气候系统模式早期发展历史的基础上,总结了中国参加第6次耦合模式比较计划的9个地球气候系统模式的技术特点,初步评估了中国4个模式对全球和东亚气候模拟的基本性能,分析了其在4种共享社会经济路径情景下对全球降水与温度的预估变化及其与平衡态气候敏感度的联系。最后,结合国际态势,从发展的角度提出未来中国气候模式研发工作需要加强的8个方向。      

评估43个CMIP5模式模拟全球能量平衡能力

<正>地球气候系统的能量平衡决定了地球气候及其变化的状况,因此全球能量平衡的研究一直受到重视,而地球气候系统模式对全球能量平衡的模拟效果也是研究的重要问题之一~([1-2])。IPCC第五次评估报告(AR5)指出~([1]),目前第五次模式对比计划(CMIP5)发展的地球系统模式在模拟气候系统5个圈层方面     

区域海气耦合模式FROALS的发展及其应用

区域海气耦合模式是研究局地海气相互作用过程影响气候变率的重要平台,也是对全球气候模式进行"动力降尺度"的重要工具.本文介绍了LASG(State Key Laboratory of Numerical Modeling for Atmospheric Sciences and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics)/IAP(Institute of Atmospheric Physics)发展的区域海气耦合模式FROALS(Flexible Regional Ocean-Atmosphere-Land System model),并总结了过去五年围绕该区域海气耦合模式开展的研究工 作.FROALS的特点之一是有两个完全不同的大气模式分量和海洋模式分量选项,可以适应不同的模拟研究需 求.针对区域海气耦合模式在西北太平洋地区的模拟偏差,通过分步骤考察不同大气模式分量和不同海洋模式分量对模式模拟性能的影响,指出大气模式是导致区域海气耦合偏差的主要分量.通过改进对流触发的相对湿度阈值标准,有效地改善了此前区域海气耦合模式在亚洲季风区普遍出现的"模拟海温冷偏差".改进的FROALS对西北太平洋地区的大气和海洋环境有较好的模拟能力,合理地再现了西北太平洋地区表层洋流气候态和年际变率.较之非耦合模式,考虑区域海气耦合过程后,改进了东亚和南亚地区的降水和热带气旋潜势年际变率的模拟.最后,针对东亚—西北太平洋地区,利用FROALS对IAP/LASG全球气候模式模拟和预估的结果进行了动力降尺 度,得到了东亚区域50 km高分辨率区域气候变化信息.分析显示,FROALS模拟得到的东亚区域气候较之全球气候模式和非耦合区域气候模式结果具有明显的"增值",显示出区域海气耦合模式在该区域良好的应用前景.     

南海中尺度大气-海流-海浪耦合模式的建立及应用

考虑到我国南海特殊的战略位置和复杂的海气相互作用特征,基于中尺度大气模式(MM5)、区域海洋模式(POM)和第三代海浪模式(WW3),利用消息传递的并行编程方案,建立了适用于我国南海海区的中尺度大气-海流-海浪三元耦合模式系统,将该系统用于对南海典型台风过程的模拟研究。结果表明:耦合模式运行高效稳定,较好模拟了两次台风过程,与非耦合大气模式相比,提高了对台风路径和强度的模拟准确率;耦合模式模拟出了上层海洋对台风系统的响应特征,在台风中心附近,海面温度降低,海表流场和海浪场增强,相对于台风路径,响应具有右偏性;耦合模式中的波浪效应增强了海表应力,阻碍了台风系统的发展,增强了海面降温幅度和海流近惯性振荡的振幅。大气-海流-海浪耦合模式系统是研究南海中尺度海-气相互作用,提高南海区域气象水文预报能力的一种有效手段。      

一个区域地气耦合柱状模式的发展及其对半干旱区的模拟

在现有的区域气候模式的基础上构建了用于研究地气耦合模拟的区域柱状模式,其中包括了详细的物理过程,可以作为研究半干旱区地气相互作用过程的工具。通过区域柱状模式与不同陆面模式的耦合,检验了不同陆面模式在非耦合和耦合两种情况下对半干旱区的模拟性能。结果表明,陆面模式在耦合后对感热的模拟偏差放大,而潜热的模拟效果得到了改进,不同的陆面模式对区域柱状模式的模拟性能影响较大,耦合了CoLM后的区域柱状模式对地表气象要素的模拟得到了较大的改进。     

地球系统模式发展展望

在调研国际国内气候系统模式的基础上,给出了地球系统模式的定义和它的3个发展阶段:物理气候系统模式、地球气候系统模式和地球系统模式,阐述了未来的地球系统模式发展的战略意义,介绍了国际国内围绕地球系统模式的发展所提出的科学研究计划,并基于政府间气候变化委员会第四次评估报告的参评模式,回顾了国内外地球系统模式发展现状与动态,展望了未来的可能发展方向,希望能对国内的地球气候系统模式发展有所帮助.     

FIO-ESM v2.0模式及其参与CMIP6的方案

目前,世界气候研究计划（WCRP）组织的国际耦合模式比较计划（CMIP）已经进入到第六阶段（CMIP6),CMIP6试验的开展也已成为国内外地球系统模式工作组的首要工作之一。自然资源部第一海洋研究所地球系统模式FIO-ESM是以耦合自主开发的海浪模式为特色的地球系统模式。在参与CMIP5的FIO-ESM v1.0的基础上,通过升级分量模式、改进海气通量相关物理过程和提高分辨率等,FIO-ESM v2.0现已完成研发,正在开展CMIP6科学计划的相关试验。文中围绕FIO-ESM v2.0的特色和计划参与CMIP6的情况,介绍了FIO-ESM v2.0的模式框架、包含的特色物理过程以及拟参加的CMIP6科学计划情况,以方便气候研究领域的科学家了解和使用。     

南海海域海-气耦合模式及其数值模拟试验

在ＮＣＡＲ区域气候模式ＲｅｇＧＭ２和普林斯顿海洋模式ＰＯＭ基础上发展适用于区域海－气相互作用研究的区域海－气耦合模式,模式采用同步耦合、海洋模式将海表温度提供给大气模式,大气模式为海洋模式提供太阳短波辐射、感热能量、潜热通量。海洋与大气模式每１５ｍｉｎ交换一次通量。耦合过程没有使用通量校正。使用该模式对中国南海区域１９９５年５－７月大气和海洋进行了模拟试验,将模拟结果与ＣＯＡＤＳ通量强迫的模拟结果     

COMPARATIVE ANALYSIS OF VARIOUS DATA OF AIR–SEA TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCE AND ITS VARIATION ACROSS SOUTH CHINA SEA IN THE PAST 35 YEARS

Using the International Comprehensive Ocean-Atmosphere Data Set(ICOADS) and ERA-Interim data, spatial distributions of air-sea temperature difference(ASTD) in the South China Sea(SCS) for the past 35 years are compared,and variations of spatial and temporal distributions of ASTD in this region are addressed using empirical orthogonal function decomposition and wavelet analysis methods. The results indicate that both ICOADS and ERA-Interim data can reflect actual distribution characteristics of ASTD in the SCS, but values of ASTD from the ERA-Interim data are smaller than those of the ICOADS data in the same region. In addition, the ASTD characteristics from the ERA-Interim data are not obvious inshore. A seesaw-type, north-south distribution of ASTD is dominant in the SCS; i.e., a positive peak in the south is associated with a negative peak in the north in November, and a negative peak in the south is accompanied by a positive peak in the north during April and May. Interannual ASTD variations in summer or autumn are decreasing. There is a seesaw-type distribution of ASTD between Beibu Bay and most of the SCS in summer, and the center of large values is in the Nansha Islands area in autumn. The ASTD in the SCS has a strong quasi-3a oscillation period in all seasons, and a quasi-11 a period in winter and spring. The ASTD is positively correlated with the Nio3.4 index in summer and autumn but negatively correlated in spring and winter.     

Could the Recent Taal Volcano Eruption Trigger an El Ni?o and Lead to Eurasian Warming?

<正>The Taal Volcano in Luzon is one of the most active and dangerous volcanoes of the Philippines. A recent eruption occurred on 12 January 2020(Fig. 1a), and this volcano is still active with the occurrence of volcanic earthquakes. The eruption has become a deep concern worldwide, not only for its damage on local society, but also for potential hazardous consequences on the Earth’s climate and environment.     

VARIABILITY OF INTER-ANNUAL RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN INDIAN OCEAN DIPOLE AND HUAXI REGION’S AUTUMN PRECIPITATION

The moving-window correlation analysis was applied to investigate the relationship between autumn Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) events and the synchronous autumn precipitation in Huaxi region, based on the daily precipitation, sea surface temperature (SST) and atmospheric circulation data from 1960 to 2012. The correlation curves of IOD and the early modulation of Huaxi region’s autumn precipitation indicated a mutational site appeared in the 1970s. During 1960 to 1979, when the IOD was in positive phase in autumn, the circulations changed from a “W” shape to an ”M” shape at 500 hPa in Asia middle-high latitude region. Cold flux got into the Sichuan province with Northwest flow, the positive anomaly of the water vapor flux transported from Western Pacific to Huaxi region strengthened, caused precipitation increase in east Huaxi region. During 1980 to 1999, when the IOD in autumn was positive phase, the atmospheric circulation presented a “W” shape at 500 hPa, the positive anomaly of the water vapor flux transported from Bay of Bengal to Huaxi region strengthened, caused precipitation ascend in west Huaxi region. In summary, the Indian Ocean changed from cold phase to warm phase since the 1970s, caused the instability of the inter-annual relationship between the IOD and the autumn rainfall in Huaxi region.     

A COMPARATIVE ANALYSIS OF ATMOSPHERIC AND OCEANIC CONDITIONS BEFORE THE OCCURRENCE OF TWO TYPES OF EL NIO EVENTS

The atmospheric and oceanic conditions before the onset of EP El Ni?o and CP El Ni?o in nearly 30 years are compared and analyzed by using 850 hPa wind, 20℃ isotherm depth, sea surface temperature and the Wheeler and Hendon index. The results are as follows: In the western equatorial Pacific, the occurrence of the anomalously strong westerly winds of the EP El Ni?o is earlier than that of the CP El Ni?o. Its intensity is far stronger than that of the CP El Ni?o. Two months before the El Ni?o, the anomaly westerly winds of the EP El Ni?o have extended to the eastern Pacific region, while the westerly wind anomaly of the CP El Ni?o can only extend to the west of the dateline three months before the El Ni?o and later stay there. Unlike the EP El Ni?o, the CP El Ni?o is always associated with easterly wind anomaly in the eastern equatorial Pacific before its onset. The thermocline depth anomaly of the EP El Ni?o can significantly move eastward and deepen. In addition, we also find that the evolution of thermocline is ahead of the development of the sea surface temperature for the EP El Ni?o. The strong MJO activity of the EP El Ni?o in the western and central Pacific is earlier than that of the CP El Ni?o. Measured by the standard deviation of the zonal wind square, the intensity of MJO activity of the EP El Ni?o is significantly greater than that of the CP El Ni?o before the onset of El Ni?o.     

IMPACT OF ATMOSPHERIC LOW-FREQUENCY OSCILLATION ON THE IMMIGRATION OF NILAPARVATA LUGENS(STL) IN HUNAN AND JIANGXI PROVINCES

Various features of the atmospheric environment affect the number of migratory insects, besides their initial population. However, little is known about the impact of atmospheric low-frequency oscillation(10 to 90 days) on insect migration. A case study was conducted to ascertain the influence of low-frequency atmospheric oscillation on the immigration of brown planthopper, Nilaparvata lugens(Stl), in Hunan and Jiangxi provinces. The results showed the following:(1) The number of immigrating N. lugens from April to June of 2007 through 2016 mainly exhibited a periodic oscillation of 10 to 20 days.(2) The 10-20 d low-frequency number of immigrating N. lugens was significantly correlated with a low-frequency wind field and a geopotential height field at 850 h Pa.(3) During the peak phase of immigration, southwest or south winds served as a driving force and carried N. lugens populations northward, and when in the back of the trough and the front of the ridge, the downward airflow created a favorable condition for N. lugens to land in the study area. In conclusion, the northward migration of N. lugens was influenced by a low-frequency atmospheric circulation based on the analysis of dynamics. This study was the first research connecting atmospheric low-frequency oscillation to insect migration.     

全球贸易隐含碳变化及其影响分析

基于最新的GTAP8 (Global Trade Analysis Project）数据库,使用投入产出法,分析了2004年到2007年全球贸易变化下南北集团贸易隐含碳变化及对全球碳排放的影响。结果显示,随着发展中国家进出口规模扩张,全球贸易隐含碳流向的重心逐渐向发展中国家转移。2004年到2007年,发达国家高端设备制造业和服务业出口以及发展中国家资源、能源密集型行业及中低端制造业出口的趋势加强,该过程的生产转移导致全球碳排放增长4.15亿t,占研究时段全球贸易隐含碳增量的63%。未来发展中国家的出口隐含碳比重还将进一步提高。贸易变化带来的南北集团隐含碳流动变化对全球应对气候变化行动的影响日益突出,发达国家对此负有重要责任。     

Analysis of Atmospheric Boundary Layer Height Characteristics over the Arctic Ocean Using the Aircraft and GPS Soundings

正ERRATUM to: Atmospheric and Oceanic Science Letters, 4(2011), 124-130 On page 126 of the printed edition (Issue 2, Volume 4), Fig. 2 was a wrong figure because the contact author made mistake giving the wrong one. The corrected edition has been updated on our website. The editorial office is sincerely sorry for any     

Index to Vol.31

正AN Junling;see LI Ying et al.;(5),1221—1232AN Junling;see QU Yu et al.;(4),787-800AN Junling;see WANG Feng et al.;(6),1331-1342Ania POLOMSKA-HARLICK;see Jieshun ZHU et al.;(4),743-754Baek-Min KIM;see Seong-Joong KIM et al.;(4),863-878BAI Tao;see LI Gang et al.;(1),66-84BAO Qing;see YANG Jing et al.;(5),1147—1156BEI Naifang;     

Information for Contributors

正Journal of Meteorological Research is an international academic journal in atmospheric sciences edited and published by Acta Meteorologica Sinica Press,sponsored by the Chinese Meteorological Society.It has been acting as a bridge of academic exchange between Chinese and foreign meteorologists and aiming at introduction of the current advancements in atmospheric sciences in China.The journal columns include Articles.Note and Correspondence,and research letters.Contributions from all over the world are welcome.