THE INITIAL WIND SCHEME OF THE HEMISPHERIC SPECTRAL MODEL AND ITS EFFECT ON THE DATA ASSIMILATION

A series of data assimilation and forecast test have been carried out with a hemispheric spectralmodel(T42L9H).It is found that the numerical scheme for determining hemispheric initial wind isimportant to data assimilation and forecast.An inappropriate scheme may cause computationalsources of divergence near the equator,which are responsible for the spurious strong precipitationand corresponding latent heat release.Obviously,this problem differs from either thehemispheric/global domain effect or the tropical data effect pointed by Dalley et al.(1981).Basedon the previous studies,the new scheme of divergence and vorticity correction is presented,andthe difference with other schemes and its effects on the data assimilation are discussed against thecontrol test.Preliminary tests have shown that the new divergence correction scheme proposed in thispaper may be a preferable choice to overcome the initial computational errors in the hemisphericdata assimilation.     

ON THE SENSITIVITY OF PRECIPITATION FORECASTS TO THE MOIST PHYSICS AND THE HORIZONTAL RESOLUTION OF NUMERICAL MODEL

The impacts of the enhanced model's moist physics and horizontal resolution upon the QPFs(quantitative precipitation forecasts)are investigated by applying the HIRLAM(high resolutionlimited area model)to the summer heavy-rain cases in China.The performance of the control run,for which a 0.5°×0.5°grid spacing and a traditional“grid-box supersaturation removal+Kuo typeconvective paramerization”are used as the moist physics,is compared with that of the sensitivityruns with an enhanced model's moist physics(Sundqvist scheme)and an increased horizontalresolution(0.25°×0.25°),respectively.The results show:(1)The enhanced moist physics scheme(Sundqvist scheme),by introducing the cloud watercontent as an additional prognostic variable and taking into account briefly of the microphysicsinvolved in the cloud-rain conversion,does bring improvements in the model's QPFs.Althoughthe deteriorated QPFs also occur occasionally,the improvements are found in the majority of thecases,indicating the great potential for the improvement of QPFs by enhancing the model's moistphysics.(2)By increasing the model's horizontal resolution from 0.5°×0.5°,which is already quitehigh compared with that of the conventional atmospheric soundings,to 0.25°×0.25°without thesimultaneous enhancement in model physics and objective analysis,the improvements in QPFs arevery limited.With higher resolution,although slight amelioration in locating the rainfall centersand in resolving some finer structures of precipitation pattern are made,the number of the mis-predicted fine structures in rainfall field increases with the enhanced model resolution as well.     

THE SENSITIVITY TEST STUDY OF AIR-SEA SURFACE FLUX MODEL

In this article, a sensitivity test of air-sea surface flux model was carried out with the field observation data of Project “South China Sea Air-Sea Flux Measurement in 2000”. The results show that sensible heat fluxes are sensitive to observation errors, increasing the error of model calculation; In contrast, the latent heat flux and momentum flux are not as sensitive to observation errors as the sensible heat, and their calculated results are reliable. The test result also verifies…     

NUMERICAL STUDY OF OROGRAPHIC INFLUENCE ON LOW FREQUENCY OSCILLATION

Orographic effects on monthly-and seasonal-scale low frequency oscillation are investiged in terms of a five-level global spectral model with a triangle truncation at wavenumber 10 that contains relatively full physical parameterization, followed by analysis and comparison of the lowpass filtered data separately obtained from models with and without orography. Results show that remarkable seasonal characteristics are displayed in the orographic forcing-generated low frequency wavetrain on monthly and seasonal scales. It is found that the Northern Hemisphere summer orography-produced tropical heating acts as source of the low-frequency wavetrain for both hemispheres. Besides, the simulations indicate that the orographic wavetrain perturbation can give rise to the anomaly in the equatorial zonal flow, whose transient forcing will cause a new wavetrain in the Southern Hemisphere, thus completing the cross-equatorial propagation of the northern wave in interhemispheric action.     

NUMERICAL SIMULATION STUDY OF HAIL CLOUD—PART Ⅰ:THE NUMERICAL MODEL

In order to study mechanisms of hailstone formation and hail suppression with seeding and toobtain optimum seeding technique for hail cloud,a 3-D compressive numerical seeding model forhail cloud is developed.The water substance in hail cloud is divided into 8 categories,i.e.,watervapor,cloud droplet,raindrop,ice crystal,snow.graupel,frozen drop and hail,and the detailedmicrophysical processes are described in a spectrum with two variable parameters and morereasonable particle number/size distributions.Then,the model is able to predict concentration andwater content of various particles.Especially.it can calculate the number of hailstones whosecores are graupel or frozen drop and apply to study mechanism of hailstone formation.Additionally,a conservative equation of AgI as seeding or glacigenous agent is found andnucleation by condensation of artificial nucleus,and nucleation by freezing of cloud droplet or raindrop which contact with AgI particle are considered.The dynamic energy flux of hail shooting onground is used to verify seeding effect.Therefore the model is also used to study mechanism of hailsuppression with seeding and the seeding technique,     

NUMERICAL SIMULATION STUDY OF HAIL CLOUD-PART Ⅰ:THE NUMERICAL MODEL

In order to study mechanisms of hailstone formation and hail suppression with seeding and to obtain optimum seeding technique for hail cloud,a 3-D compressive numerical seeding model for hail cloud is developed.The water substance in hail cloud is divided into 8 categories,i.e.,water vapor,cloud droplet,raindrop,ice crystal,snow.graupel,frozen drop and hail,and the detailed microphysical processes are described in a spectrum with two variable parameters and more reasonable particle number/size distributions.Then,the model is able to predict concentration and water content of various particles.Especially.it can calculate the number of hailstones whose cores are graupel or frozen drop and apply to study mechanism of hailstone formation.Additionally,a conservative equation of AgI as seeding or glacigenous agent is found and nucleation by condensation of artificial nucleus,and nucleation by freezing of cloud droplet or rain drop which contact with AgI particle are considered.The dynamic energy flux of hail shooting on ground is used to verify seeding effect.Therefore the model is also used to study mechanism of hail suppression with seeding and the seeding technique.     

THE TRANSITION OF A MULTI-DIMENSIONAL LORENZ SYSTEM

A multi-dimensional Lorenz system, which includes thirty-three amplitude equations describing time evolution of convection, is derived from two-dimensional Boussinesq equations by using the Galerkin method. Its transition is studied by numerical solution. It is found that, with Rayleigh number increasing from zero to one hundred, five different types of motion appear one after another as follows: stationary motion, periodic motion, quasiperiodic motion with two-fundamental frequencies, quasi-periodic motion with three fundamental frequencies, and chaotic motion. By comparing with the Lorenz model and Curry's fourteen-dimensional model, it is shown that as retained modes increase, the critical values of transition become larger and the types of bifurcation change. The results of dynamic behavior happen to be in agreement with the Ⅲa route of the Gollub and Benson experiments.     

THE EFFECT OF ASPECT RATIO ON THE BIFURCATION PROPERTIES OF A DOUBLE PARALLEL-CONNECTION LORENZ SYSTEM

A double parallel-connection (DPC) Lorenz system is developed by performing spectrum truncation of the Galerkin series expansion of the two-dimensional Rayleigh-Benard convection equation. Analyses of the equilibrium states indicate that a convective roll stems from a flow with a given wavenumber first losing its stability for a particular aspect ratio β after a stable laminar flow gets unstable; when β has the value βc able to deprive synchronously two flows with different wavenumbers of stability, occurrences of convective rolls with different wavenumbers depend entirely on the initial conditions, in good agreement with the relevant experimental results. The calculations of the unstablized rolls show that, with a smaller β (as compared with βc), the DPC Lorenz system has the same bifurcation properties as the ordinary Lorenz system; for a moderate β, the system has very complicated periodic, quasi-periodic and phase-locking motions; for a larger β, it results in intermittent chaos and causes mean flows with different numbers of vortices to occur alternately with time. All these indicate that β has substantial effect on the two Lorenz systems coupled through parallel connection in their interaction and the results.     

SENSITIVITY OF LIDAR EQUATION SOLUTION TO BOUNDARY VALUES AND DETERMINATION OF THE VALUES

An analytical dependence of the optical depth solution to lidar equation on boundary values was confirmed. According to the dependence this paper analyzed the sensitivity of lidar equation solutions obtained by forward and backward integration algorithms to the boundary values and quantitatively expounded an error limit to the boundary values under a given inversion accuracy. Furthermore, this paper presented a method for determination of the far-end boundary value in the case of inhomogeneous atmosphere, improving the accuracy of lidar equation solution.     

NUMERICAL STUDY ON EFFECTS OF THE QINGHAIXIZANG PLATEAU ON FORMATION OF THE URAL BLOCKING HIGH

By employing the improved T42L5 spectral model and utilizing the ECMWF data covering the period from 1 Julyto 7 July 1982,a numerical research on the formation of the Ural blocking system has been made.The results show thatthe model forecasts for the upstream U ral area turn out to be worse if the dynamic effect of the Qinghai-Xizang Plateauis not considered.The correlation coefficient between the model forecasts and observed 500 hPa geopotential heightanomaly decreases by 9% for the 5-day mean,and their averaged root mean square (RMS) error increases 15 m.Due tothe dynamic effect of the Plateau,the trough being on the northwest of the Plateau is barricaded and turns to be atransversal trough.Consequently southwest flow occurs along the northwest of the Plateau in front of the trough,whilenortheast flow prevails over the west of the trough,causing the formation of the blocking high over the Ural area.Whenthe dynamic effect of the Plateau is not taken into consideration,the trough develops and moves southeastward and theUral blocking high changes into a migratory high.All these result in the failure of the simulation.The dynamic effect ofthe Plateau helps to increase the negative vorticities over the Plateau and its north periphery as well as the Ural area,andalso helps to increase the positive vorticities over the Black Sea and the Caspian Sea area.On the other hand,thethermodynamic effect mainly influences the Plateau and its downstream area and plays an less important role in theformation of the blocking high over the upstream Ural area.     

NUMERICAL STUDY ON THE EFFECTS OF SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE ON TROPICAL CYCLONE INTENSITY—PART Ⅱ:COUPLING MODEL AND EXPERIMENT

A tropical cyclone-marine mixed layer model including air-sea interaction is established to conductnumerical experiment with the effects of SST on the cyclone's intensity,Evidence suggests that withair-sea interaction involved,SST rise causes a drop of central pressure of the storm and SST impact onthe intensity is weaker in the coupling case.Moreover,study is undertaken of the intensity variationof another tropical cyclone moving in the cyclone's cold-tail sector,with the results in good agreementwith the observational fact.     

MODEL STUDY OF THE EFFECT OF SOIL NO EMISSIONS ON SURFACE OZONE

The effect of soil NO emissions on surface ozone in autumn in East China has been studied byusing TCTM(Troposphere Chemical Transport Model)with the input of meteorological variablesfrom RAMS.The chemical mechanism for ozone variation caused by soil emissions has also beeninvestigated.The model results reveal that soil NO emissions are important to regional ozoneformation and distribution and the effect of soil NO emissions shows spatial inhomogeneity.Ozoneover most areas in northern China decreases with maximum average decrement reaching 5 ppbwhile it increases over most areas of central and southern China with maximum average incrementreaching 7 ppb caused by soil NO emissions.This situation of ozone variation is mainly determinedby nonlinear photochemical mechanism.For the low NOx areas(≤3 ppb),ozone increases as NOxincreases;for the high NOx areas(>3 ppb),ozone decreases as NOx increases.The effect of soilNO emissions on ozone depends on the transition value and NOx concentrations.     

CHARACTERISTICS OF CHAOS OF THE LORENZ SYSTEM WITH VELOCITY SHEAR

Chaotic motions may appear when the velocity shear damper is added into the Lorenz equationfor the Prandtl number σ=0.7. The critical Rayleigh number with velocity shear is larger than that without velocity shear. The chaos is a aperiodic phenomenon. The trajectory of chaotic motions is irregular in phasespace. There are many ways to reach turbulence. The behaviour is of general turbulence whenshear is small. It is of intermittent turbulence when shear is larger and of transient laminarwhen moderate. The research on chaotic motion with velocity shear is of significance for understanding atmosphericturbulence.     

IMPACT OF VERTICAL RESOLUTION,MODEL TOP AND DATA ASSIMILATION ON WEATHER FORECASTING——A CASE STUDY

The impacts of stratospheric initial conditions and vertical resolution on the stratosphere by raising the model top, refining the vertical resolution, and the assimilation of operationally available observations, including conventional and satellite observations, on continental U.S. winter short-range weather forecasting, were investigated in this study. The initial and predicted wind and temperature profiles were analyzed against conventional observations. Generally, the initial wind and temperature bias profiles were better adjusted when a higher model top and refined vertical resolution were used. Negative impacts were also observed in both the initial wind and temperature profiles, over the lower troposphere. Different from the results by only raising the model top, the assimilation of operationally available observations led to significant improvements in both the troposphere and stratosphere initial conditions when a higher top was used. Predictions made with the adjusted stratospheric initial conditions and refined vertical resolutions showed generally better forecasting skill. The major improvements caused by raising the model top with refined vertical resolution, as well as those caused by data assimilation, were in both cases located in the tropopause and lower stratosphere. Negative impacts were also observed, in the predicted near surface wind and lower-tropospheric temperature. These negative impacts were related to the uncertainties caused by more stratospheric information, as well as to some physical processes. A case study shows that when we raise the model top, put more vertical layers in stratosphere and apply data assimilation, the precipitation scores can be slightly improved. However, more analysis are needed due to uncertainties brought by data assimilation.     

THE SENSITIVITY OF THE NUMERICAL SIMULATION TO OROGRAPHY SPECIFICATION IN THE LOWRESOLUTION SPECTRAL MODEL－PART II: IMPACT OF THE SMOOTHED OROGRAPHY AND RIPPLES ON SIMULATIONS

In order to investigate the impact of the smoothed orography and the spurious orographic ripples on simu-lations in the low-resolution spectral model, three different numerical tests, that is, the unsmoothed orography scheme, the smoothed orography scheme and non-ripples scheme are performed. In this paper, the model used by us is the same as Part I except for orographic specification.The results from simulations indicate that, as far as the climatic simulation is concerned, some aspects of the simulated stationary disturbances, zonal and meridional wind, temperature and precipitation in the low-resolu-tion spectral model with properly smoothed mountains are significantly improved, especially in winter hemis-phere.The deep ripples in the model with the unsmoothed orography produce spurious high pressure regions at the surface with subsidence, and suppress rainfall, causing an unrealistic splitting of the precipitation area in northern winter and summer. Removal of tbe deep ripples by using the special procedure for smoothing topog-raphy allows a strong upward motion in the ripple area with heavy rainfall, eliminating the unrelistic split in the precipitation area.     

A STUDY OF NUMERICAL MODELLING ON THE DEVELOPMENT OF DEPRESSIONS IN THE SOUTH CHINA SEA

The comparison analyses between two tropical depressions in the South China Sea are completed by numerical ex-periments with a limited area model developed in Guangzhou Institute of Tropical and Oceanic Meteorology. One of thedepressions develops and finally becomes a typhoon within 24 hours of the analyzing period (defined as DVD hereafter),and the other not (defined as UNDVD) The analyses show that their initial structures of temperature, humidity, pres-sure. wind and stability are obviously different from each other. There are a very deep wet layer and a clear warm-coredstructure in the mid-lower troposphere in the depression area in the DVD case, but with the warm core in the upperrather than lower troposphere arid a very shallow wet layer in the lower troposphere in the depression area in theUNDVD case. The developing and non-developing processes are successfully simulated by the model, showing that theCISK mechanism plays the most important role in the development of SCSDs (Tropical Depressions in the South ChinaSea). Several numerical experiments show that the structures of humidity and temperature in the depression area haveimportant effect on the development of SCSDs. It is favourable to the development of SCSDs when a very deep wet layerexists in the mid-lower troposphere or a warm-cored structure exists in the mid-lower troposphere instead of in uppertroposphere, and conversely, it is unfavourable to the development of SCSDs when the wet layer is very shallow in thelower troposphere or the warm-cored structure is in the upper troposphere rather than in mid-lower troposphere. Thestructures of stability for each case are also analysed, which shows evident differences between the two cases, with adeeper instability layer in the DVD case and a shallower one in the UNDVD case. Finally, the sensitivity of the devel-opment of the SCSDs to the vertical structures of humidity and temperature in the depression area is discussed.     

THE STUDY ON THE WINTERTIME STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS OVER URUMQI,XINJIANG OF CHINA——NUMERICAL MODELING OF STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS

On the basis of the conceptual model,the development of wintertime stratocumulus cloud has been sim-ulated by using a planetary boundary layer/cloud physics model.The main characteristics of the cloud struc-ture and evolution obtained from the simulation are consistent with those from observations.By analyzingthe modeled results,some details of the cloud structures and microphysics processes are discussed.     

THE SENSITIVITY OF NUMERICAL SIMULATION TO OROGRAPHY SPECIFICATION IN THE LOW RESOLUTION SPECTRAL MODEL－PART I: THE EFFECTS OF OROGRAPHY ON THE ATMOSPHERIC GENERAL CIRCULATION

In order to identify the sensitivity of the numerical simulation to the orography specification in a low resolution spectral model, two sets of numerical experiments for full-mountain and no-mountain cases are performed. By comparing the results, it is possible to determine the eflects of mountains on the atmospheric general circulation.This is a global, spectral model incorporating the primitive equations sugmented by physical parameterization and mountains, with five equally-spaced sigma levels in the vertical ang a triangular truncation at wavenum-ber 10 in the horizontal.Analysis of results supports earlier work by demonstrating that the low resolution global spectral model is capable of simulating the major features of global general circulation and indicates that it is necessary to consider the effects of mountains on stationary disturbances in the numerical simulation. The simulations show that topography plays an important role in intensifying heat sources for maintenance of disturbances.All the     

CHANGE OF CLIMATE AND ITS INFLUENCE ON THE CROPPING SYSTEM IN CHINA

Tne global change of climate and its influence on the cropping system in China have been investigatedin this paper.It is found that the temperature was increased during the last decade and the precipitationdecreased in northern China and increased in southern China during the last 30 years.The sea level hasbeen rising by about 21—26 cm in the coastal areas south of 30°N in China during the last 100 years.The most of results as simulated by the general circulation models(GCMs)show that the temperature increasewould amount to about 2°—4°C in the most parts of China and precipitation and soil moisture might bedecreased in northern China and increased in sourthern China due to doubling of carbon dioxide(CO_2).The effects of doubled CO_2 on growth period and climatic yield capability in China have been estimatedroughly.It is shown that the regions of the growth period in China would be moved northward about fivedegrees latitude and the climatic yield capability might be increased by about 10％ in the most parts of China.