Greenhouse warming over Indian sub-continent

A hierarchy of climate models have been developed and applied to the problem of doubling the CO₂ concentration in the atmosphere. Currently available general circulation models include the most complete treatment of the global wanning and are capable of providing changes in several of the meteorological parameters in time scales of half a century or even more. Much skill is gradually being achieved now for future climate simulations. In this paper, we have attempted to describe the response of the National Center for Atmospheric Research Climate Community Model (NCAR CCM), whose performance for northern hemispheric climate simulations was reported to be very satisfactory to Indian region. The seasonal (winter and summer) changes in surface temperature, rainfall and soil moisture expected over the Indian sub-continent due to doubling of CO₂ in the atmosphere as inferred from model output statistics are discussed. A probable scenario for sea level rise along the Indian coastline by the year 2030 AD as a result of ocean water’s expansion due to global warming is outlined. These projections should not be treated as predictions of what is going to happen over the Indian sub-continent. Rather, they merely illustrate to what extent we might be affected by the future climate change.     

Induction by long period geomagnetic variations in the Indian sub-continent

In the present paper storm time variations and 27-day geomagnetic periodicity have been analysed to estimate the depth of the substitute conductor, assuming an infinitely (super) conducting core model of the earth. The advantage of using data from a restricted longitude range is that the uncertainties arising from lateral contrasts in the upper mantle and contributions from Sq current systems are considerably reduced. The result of the present analysis, which has been done in the time domain, gives a value of 522 km for the depth of the substitute conductor in case of storm time variations which rises to 870 km for 27-day recurrent storms. A higher value of the depth for 27-day variations indicate that the rise in conductivity inside the earth is not like a step function rather is a gradual one. The value of 522 km for storm time variations for the Indian region is smaller than the global average. This is natural to expect because the Indian sub-continent is known to be a tectonically active region.     

Neotectonics of Africa and the Indian Ocean: Development of the geoidal low

The western, trans-Africa lobe of the Indian Ocean geoidal low correlates with Neogene tectonic features, such as the east Africa rift system and the Congo river basin. The opposite, eastern flank of the Indocean geoidal low is indented westward by the geoidal high associated with Sundaland (Indonesia), believed to have been displaced westward into its present location since mid-Tertiary times. The Indocean low thus seems to be slowly mobile, and to have acquired its present shape, elbowed at the Equator pointing west, as a result of tectonic processes continuing at present.We have sought lithosphere motion accounting for the large-scale tectonics and for the changes in the geoidal low. The constraints suggest that Africa and the western part of the Indian Ocean basin have been experiencing slow westward drift in Neogene times. This has resulted in the development of the mass-deficiency to the east, expressed as the Indian Ocean geoidal low, in the Africa meridional rifting, and in seafloor spreading as material upwells from the asthenosphere in response to the developing hydrostatic deficiency. The motion is consistent with the seafloor magnetic record, and would explain the dextral displacement at the south boundary of the Eurasian lithosphere segment.     

Anomaly map ofZ component of the Indian sub-continent from magnetic satellite data

An anomaly map of the Z component has been produced for the region of the Indian sub-continent for the first time by the Survey of India usingmagsat data. Data of thousands of kilometres of satellite tracks of varying altitude have been reduced to a common elevation of 400 km by removing the external field and linear trend. The entire data was plotted on a map of 1:6 M and mean values of 2°×2° blocks then accepted for contouring. A prominent magnetic low is reflected over the Himalayas and a prominent high over the Indian peninsula. The dividing line of positive and negative anomalies between the Himalayas and Deccan Traps falls along the Narmada lineament.     

Co and postseismic characteristics of Indian sub-continent in response to the 2004 Sumatra earthquake

The M_w 9.3 Sumatra earthquake of December 26, 2004 caused extensive coseismic displacements globally, measurements of which were made essentially using modern geodetic techniques. This earthquake induced considerable perturbation in stress distribution as far as ∼8000 km away from the epicenteral region, which is tending to relax to its normal rates as seen from postseismic transient deformation. The monitoring of crustal displacements from strategically located sites using GPS provides coseismic as well as postseismic deformation that facilitates the understanding of the fault geometry, elastic thickness, postseismic relaxation mechanisms, rheology and earthquake recurrence time interval.We investigated coseismic and postseismic GPS derived displacements in Indian region together with the GPS data collected from Andaman and Sumatra region. It is found that while EW displacements are significantly large in peninsular India, those in the region to the north of Central India Tectonic Zone (CITZ) are relatively small. We could delineate the postseismic transients from position time series and interpreted them in terms of viscoelastic relaxation. It is inferred that the postseismic deformation is characterized by a power-law viscoelastic flow in the mantle. In Indian peninsula region, the timescale parameter of the exponential decay (τ = 250 days) would require an extremely low viscosity for the upper mantle. Relying on the prevailing coseismic and postseismic displacement fields, the present study also reflects upon the contemporary litho-tectonics of the Indian sub-continent.     

Climatology,trend of aerosol-cloud parameters and their correlation over the Northern Indian Ocean

Aerosols are one of the important atmospheric constituents and exert indirect impact on climate through the modification of microphysical and radiative properties of clouds that in turn perturb the precipitation pattern. Thus, the long term quantification of changes in aerosol and cloud characteristics and their interactions on both temporal as well as spatial scale will provide a crucial information for the better assessment of future climate change. In present study, 18 years (2003–2020) MODerate Resolution Imaging Spectro-radiometer (MODIS) derived aerosol-cloud dataset over the Northern Indian Ocean (NIO) were analysed to assess climatology and trend of aerosol, cloud characteristics and their correlation. We found a strong heterogeneity in spatio-temporal variation of aerosol and cloud parameters over the NIO that are more prominent for the coastal region. The climatological mean of aerosol loading is found high (AOD ≥ 0.5) over the outflow region along the Indian sub-continent and low (AOD ≤ 0.2) over the northern equatorial open ocean. The climatological mean of cloud properties shows dominance of optically thicker deep convective (CTP < 600 hPa and CTT < 260 K) clouds over the southern Bay of Bengal (BoB) and thinner shallow (CTP > 700 hPa and CTT > 273 K) over the northwestern Arabian Sea (AS). Similarly, bigger effective radii (>17 µm) observed along the equatorial open ocean whereas smaller CER (<17 µm) were found over Indian sub-continental coastline and western AS. Further, trend analysis reveals an increasing pattern in AOD (0.002 yr^?1), CER (0.051 µm yr^?1), LWP (0.033 gm^?2 yr^?1) and CF (0.002 yr^?1) while COD, CTT and CTP show negative trend in order of ?0.005 yr^?1, ?0.094 K yr^?1 and ?1.160 hPa yr^?1, respectively. We also perform similar analysis for seven sub-region of interest (R1 to R7) across the NIO and results show a decreasing pattern in AOD (?0.001 yr^?1) at R4 against maximum mean AOD (0.44 ± 0.03). However, coastal sub-regions R1 and R5 illustrate maximum increase in aerosol loading (>0.003 yr^?1) suggesting a significant impact of sub-continental outflow over the regions. The spatial correlation of cloud properties with respect to AOD shows a positive slope for CER (0.14) and CF (0.48) and a negative for COD (?0.19), LWP (?0.18), CTT (?0.37), CTP (?0.41). The present study provides in-depth information about the aerosol-cloud characteristics for a long term scale over NIO and could be useful in regional aerosol-cloud interaction induced climate forcing estimation.     

Best track parameters of tropical cyclones over the North Indian Ocean: a review

India Meteorological Department has the responsibility of monitoring and prediction of cyclonic disturbances (CDs) including tropical cyclone (TC) and depression, collection, processing and archival of all data pertaining to CDs and preparation of best track data over the North Indian Ocean (NIO). The process of post-season analysis of CDs to determine the best estimate of a CD??s position and intensity along with other characteristics during its lifetime is described as ??best tracking??. The best tracking procedure has undergone several changes world-over including NIO due to change in definition and classification of TCs, monitoring and analysis tools and procedure and physical understanding of TCs. There have been a few attempts to document the temporal changes in the best track procedure including changes in observational network, monitoring technique, area of responsibility for monitoring, terminology and classification of the TCs over the NIO. Hence, a study has been undertaken to review the temporal variations in all the above aspects of best tracking procedure and its impact on quality of best track parameters over the NIO. The problems and prospective with the best track data over the (NIO) have been presented and discussed. Based on quality and availability, the whole period of best track information may be broadly classified into four phases, viz. (i) pre-1877, (ii) 1877?C1890, (iii) 1891?C1960 and (iv) 1961?C2010. The period of 1961?C2010 may be further classified into (a) 1961?C1973, (b) 1974?C1990 and (c) 1991?C2010. As optimum observational network including satellite leading to better estimation of location and intensity without missing of CDs was available since 1961, the climatology of genesis, location, intensity, movement (track) and landfall can be best represented based on the data set of 1961?C2010. The best track parameters need to be reanalysed since 1891, based on the present criteria/classification of CDs to develop a digital data set of every six hourly position, intensity and other characteristics throughout the life period of each recorded CD over the NIO to meet the world standard. At least attempt should be made from 1974 when all types of major data including satellite, radar, surface and upper air observations are available for best track analysis. The reanalysis of best track parameters can help in better understanding and prediction of CDs and address the issues related to climate change aspects over the NIO region.     

Magsat studies over the Indian region

Data collected by Magsat have been extensively used by Indian scientists in studies of the crust beneath India. Results obtained by various workers have been summarized and the reasons for differences in findings have been discussed. It is concluded that methods that work well for higher latitudes do not give the best estimates of crustal field and magnetization in equatorial regions. A better estimate of the crustal component is obtained when the external current contribution is estimated using the symmetry properties of associatedX and Z-fields. Inversion technique that provides stable crustal magnetization in midlatitudes, becomes unstable near the equator. Why such an instability arises and how it can be circumvented are discussed. That the Peninsular shield, the Ganga basin and the Himalayas are three different geotectonic blocks is clearly reflected in the magnetization distribution. A thick magnetic crust under Aravalli, Singhbum and Dharwar suggest these areas to be comparatively stable. In general, seismic, gravity and heat flow data agree characteristically well with the magnetization estimates.     

Trends in seasonal temperatures over the Indian region

An investigation has been carried out to identify the trends in maximum, minimum and mean temperatures and temperature range over the Indian land mass during the winter (January, and February), pre-monsoon (March–May), southwest monsoon (June–September) and post-monsoon (October–December) seasons by using high resolution daily gridded data set prepared by India Meteorological Department for the period of 1969–2005. It has been observed that the maximum temperatures over the west coast of India show rising trend in winter, southwest monsoon and post-monsoon seasons but the maximum temperatures do not show any significant trend over the other parts of the country. Minimum temperatures show increasing trend over the North Indian states in all seasons and they show an increasing trend over the west coast of India in winter and southwest monsoon seasons. Mean temperature shows an increasing trend over the west coast of India during winter and southwest monsoon seasons. Decreasing trend is observed in the temperature range over North India in all seasons due to increasing trend in minimum temperature.     

Improvement in predictability of waves over the Indian Ocean

Accurate prediction of ocean surface waves is a challenging task with many associated difficulties. Availability of good quality wind and wave information from satellite platforms inspired the scientific community to assimilate such data in various spectral wave models for enhancing the accuracy of prediction. Over the Indian Ocean, which is the region of interest for the present study, wave heights in extreme situation can go up to 12–14 m, thereby increasing the probability of coastal hazards. This region is further governed by the southern ocean swells that propagate thousands of kilometers. These are, in general, not well captured by the spectral wave models. Therefore, assimilation of altimeter data in open ocean wave model WAM has been attempted with the aim of enhancing the quality of prediction of significant wave height. Further, simulated wave spectra have been assimilated in a coastal wave model SWAN. This assimilation has been found to significantly improve the prediction of the height of wind waves as well as swell waves. V. Bhatt and S. Surendran are former students of Meteorology and Oceanography Group, Space Applications Centre, ISRO, Ahmedabad.     

High resolution numerical weather prediction over the Indian subcontinent

In this study, the Florida State University Global Spectral Model (FSUGSM), in association with a high-resolution nested regional spectral model (FSUNRSM), is used for short-range weather forecasts over the Indian domain. Three-day forecasts for each day of August 1998 were performed using different versions of the FSUGSM and FSUNRSM and were compared with the observed fields (analysis) obtained from the European Center for Medium Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF). The impact of physical initialization (a procedure that assimilates observed rain rates into the model atmosphere through a set of reverse algorithms) on rainfall forecasts was examined in detail. A very high nowcasting skill for precipitation is obtained through the use of high-resolution physical initialization applied at the regional model level. Higher skills in wind and precipitation forecasts over the Indian summer monsoon region are achieved using this version of the regional model with physical initialization. A relatively new concept, called the ‘multimodel/multianalysis superensemble’ is described in this paper and is applied for the wind and precipitation forecasts over the Indian subcontinent. Large improvement in forecast skills of wind at 850 hPa level over the Indian subcontinent is shown possible through the use of the multimodel superensemble. The multianalysis superensemble approach that uses the latest satellite data from the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) and the Defense Meteorological Satellite Program (DMSP) has shown significant improvement in the skills of precipitation forecasts over the Indian monsoon region.     

Seasonal forecasting of tropical cyclogenesis over the North Indian Ocean

Over the North Indian Ocean (NIO) and particularly over the Bay of Bengal (BoB), the post-monsoon season from October to December (OND) are known to produce tropical cyclones, which cause damage to life and property over India and many neighbouring countries. The variability of frequency of cyclonic disturbances (CDs) during OND season is found to be associated with variability of previous large-scale features during monsoon season from June to September, which is used to develop seasonal forecast model of CDs frequency over the BoB and NIO based on principal component regression (PCR). Six dynamical/thermodynamical parameters during previous June–August, viz., (i) sea surface temperature (SST) over the equatorial central Pacific, (ii) sea level pressure (SLP) over the southeastern equatorial Indian Ocean, (iii) meridional wind over the eastern equatorial Indian Ocean at 850 hPa, (iv) strength of upper level easterly, (v) strength of monsoon westerly over North Indian Ocean at 850 hPa, and (vi) SST over the northwest Pacific having significant and stable relationship with CDs over BoB in subsequent OND season are used in PCR model for a training period of 40 years (1971–2010) and the latest four years (2011–2014) are used for validation. The PCR model indicates highly significant correlation coefficient of 0.77 (0.76) between forecast and observed frequency of CD over the BoB (NIO) for the whole period of 44 years and is associated with the root mean square error and mean absolute error ≤ 1 CD. With respect to the category forecast of CD frequency over BoB and NIO, the Hit score is found to be about 63% and the Relative Operating Curves (ROC) for above and below normal forecast is found to be having much better forecast skill than the climatology. The PCR model performs very well, particularly for the above and below normal CD year over the BoB and the NIO, during the test period from 2011 to 2014.     

Validation of a satellite-based cyclogenesis technique over the North Indian Ocean

Indian region is severely affected by the tropical cyclones (TCs) due to the long coast line of about 7500 km. Hence, whenever any low level circulation (LLC) forms over the Indian Seas, the prediction of its intensification into a TC is very essential for the management of TC disaster. Satellite Application Centre (SAC) of Indian Space Research Organization (ISRO), Ahmedabad, has developed a technique to predict TCs based on scatterometer-derived winds from the polar orbiting satellite, QuikSCAT and Oceansat-II. The India Meteorological Department (IMD) has acquired the technique and verified it for the years 2010–2013 for operational use. The model is based on the concept of analogs of the sea surface wind distribution at the stage of LLC or vortex (T1.0) as per Dvorak’s classifications, which eventually leads to cyclogenesis (T2.5). The results indicate that the developed model could predict cyclogenesis with a probability of detection of 61% and critical success index of 0.29. However, it shows high over-prediction of the model is better over the Bay of Bengal than over Arabian Sea and during post-monsoon season (September–December) than in pre-monsoon season (March–June).     

Marine terraces as indicators of global geoidal and hydrological changes

Spatial pattern analysis of marine terrace elevations from 40–30 thous. years BP was used to reconstruct sea level/geoid surface and geoid parameters during that time. The polar flattening of geodetic ellipsoid was lower than its present value (1/298.81 and 1/298.26) respectively because of glacial-induced mass redistribution. Increase in polar stress occurred during the last 30 thous. years was possibly driven by pertubation brought to the gravitational field by disintegration of polar ice sheets in the Northern hemisphere. But the polar flattening value becomes only half-restored during the last deglacial hemicycle. So repetitive glacial advances during Pleistocene acted as a global “pump” for uncondensed zones at the upper/lower mantle boundary. Dissipation of tidal energy is an order of magnitude less intensive in its Earth's rotation effect. A contribution to the International Geological Correlation Programme Project JGCP — 274 “Coastal Evolution in the Quaternary”.     

Impact of gridpoint statistical interpolation scheme over Indian region

An analysis system experiment was conducted for the month of June 2008 with Gridpoint Statistical Interpolation (GSI) analysis scheme using NCMRWF’s (National Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasting) T254L64 model. Global analyses were carried out for all days of the month and respective forecast runs are made up to 120-hr. These analyses and forecasts are inter-compared with the operational T254L64 model outputs which uses Spectral Statistical Interpolation (SSI) analysis scheme. The prime objective of this study is to assess the impact of GSI analysis scheme with special emphasis on Indian summer monsoon as compared to SSI.     

Satellite-based technique for nowcasting of thunderstorms over Indian region

India experiences severe thunderstorms during the months, March–June. But these systems are not predicted well, mainly due to the absence of mesoscale observational network over Indian region and the expert system. As these are short lived systems, the nowcast is attempted worldwide based on satellite and radar observations. Due to inadequate radar network, satellite plays the dominant role for nowcast of these thunderstorms. In this study, a nowcast based algorithm ForTracc developed by Vila et al. (Weather Forecast 23:233–245, 2008) has been examined over the Indian region using Infrared Channel \((10.8~\upmu \hbox {m})\) of INSAT-3D for prediction of Mesoscale Convective Systems (MCS). In this technique, the current location and intensity in terms of Cloud Top Brightness Temperature (CTBT) of the MCS are extrapolated. The purpose of this study is to validate this satellite-based nowcasting technique for Convective Cloud Clusters that helps in optimum utilization of satellite data and improve the nowcasting. The model could predict reasonably the minimum CTBT of the convective cell with average absolute error (AAE) of \({<}7\hbox { K}\) for different lead periods (30–180 min). However, it was underestimated for all the lead periods of forecasts. The AAE in the forecasts of size of the cluster varies from about \(3\times 10^{4}\hbox { km}^{2}\) for 30-min forecast to \(7\times 10^{4}\hbox { km}^{2}\) for 120-min forecast. The mean absolute error in prediction of size is above 31–38% of actual size for different lead periods of forecasts from 30 to 180 min. There is over estimation in prediction of size for 30 and 60 min forecasts (17% and 2.6% of actual size of the cluster, respectively) and underestimation in 90 to 180-min forecasts (–2.4% to –28%). The direct position error (DPE) based on the location of minimum CTBT ranges from 70 to 144 km for 30–180-min forecast respectively.     

Sea-breeze-initiated rainfall over the east coast of India during the Indian southwest monsoon

Sea-breeze-initiated convection and precipitation have been investigated along the east coast of India during the Indian southwest monsoon season. Sea-breeze circulation was observed on approximately 70–80% of days during the summer months (June–August) along the Chennai coast. Average sea-breeze wind speeds are greater at rural locations than in the urban region of Chennai. Sea-breeze circulation was shown to be the dominant mechanism initiating rainfall during the Indian southwest monsoon season. Approximately 80% of the total rainfall observed during the southwest monsoon over Chennai is directly related to convection initiated by sea-breeze circulation.     

Facies structure and quantitative parameters of pleistocene pelagic sedimentation in the Indian Ocean

We compiled lithofacies maps for the early and middle-late Pleistocene (Eopleistocene and Neopleistocene, respectively) pelagic sedimentation of the Indian Ocean and a database for sediment thicknesses in the respective stratigraphic subdivisions. Using these data, we calculated areas, volumes, masses, and intensities of accumulation of main sediment types for both Pleistocene subdivisions. A comparison of the results confirmed a strong increase in the rate of terrigenous sedimentation. Special attention was given to the evolution of siliceous and carbonate sedimentation of the biogenic type.     

Gondwana to Asia: Plate tectonics,paleogeography and the biological connectivity of the Indian sub-continent from the Middle Jurassic through latest Eocene (166–35 Ma)

Using the most up-to-the-date information available, we present a considerably revised plate tectonic and paleogeographic model for the Indian Ocean bordering continents, from Gondwana's Middle Jurassic break-up through to India's collision with Asia in the middle Cenozoic. The landmass framework is then used to explore the sometimes complex and occasionally counter-intuitive patterns that have been observed in the fossil and extant biological records of India, Madagascar, Africa and eastern Eurasia, as well those of the more distal continents.Although the paleogeographic model confirms the traditional view that India became progressively more isolated from the major landmasses during the Cretaceous and Paleocene, it is likely that at various times minor physiographic features (principally ocean islands) provided causeways and/or stepping-stone trails along which land animals could have migrated to/from the sub-continent. Aside from a likely link (albeit broken by several marine gaps) to Africa for much of this time (it is notable, that the present-day/recent biota of Madagascar indicates that the ancestors of five land-mammal orders, plus bats, crossed the > 400-km-wide Mozambique Channel at different times in the Cenozoic), it is possible that the Kerguelen Plateau connected India and Australia–Antarctica in the mid-Cretaceous (approximately 115–90 Ma). Later, the Seychelles–Mascarene Plateau and nearby elevated sea-floor areas could have allowed faunas to pass between southern India and Madagascar in the Late Cretaceous, from around 85–65 Ma, with an early Cenozoic extension to this path forming as a result of the Reunion hot-spot trace islands growing on the ocean floor to the SSW of India. The modelling also suggests that India's northward passage towards Asia, with eventual collision at 35 Ma, involved the NE corner of the sub-continent making a glancing contact with Sumatra, followed by Burma from ~ 57 Ma (late Paleocene) onwards, a scenario which is compatible with the fossil record indicating that India–Asia faunal exchanges began occurring at about this time. Finally, we contend that a number of biologically-based direct terrestrial migration routes that have been proposed for last 15 m.y. of the Cretaceous (Asia to India; Antarctica to Madagascar and/or India) can probably be dismissed because the marine barriers, likely varying from > 1000 up to 2500 km, were simply too wide.