Upwelling characteristics in the Peter the Great Bay in fall-winter season of 1999–2000

The intermediate water upwelling zone is discovered in November and December in the Peter the Great Bay (the Sea of Japan) on the basis of the data of the repeated hydrological section along 132° E. Taking account of the two-layer density field structure obtained from the observational data and applying the corresponding upwelling model [20], its main characteristics are computed. The upwelling zone width amounts to 6.2 km, the stratification destruction time is 69 h, and the vertical speed component is 4.3 × 10⁻² cm/s. The upwelling zone is clearly pronounced both at the temperature and salinity fields and at the biogenic element field.     

Dynamics of accumulation of heavy metals by subcolloidal fraction of bottom sediments is a result of biochemical processes in the marginal filter of the Razdol’naya River (the Amur Bay, the Sea of Japan)

Determined is the content of Fe, Mn, V, Cr, Cu, Zn, Pb, As, and Sc in the subcolloidal fraction of sediments of the Razdol’naya River marginal filter using the method of atomic emission spectroscopy. Proposed is one of the variants of separating biochemical zones with the increased content of Fe and Mn and other metals in the bottom sediments of the marginal filter: the river zone, the zone of flocculation and formation of Fe and Mn hydroxides, and the zone of biochemical metal accumulation (marine). In the sediments of the river zone and the zone of flocculation and formation of Fe and Mn hydroxides, two bottom areas are identified with the high content of the elements under study that is associated with long-term and seasonal variations of the river runoff.     

Geochemical aspects of accumulation of macroelements in the subcolloidal fraction of bottom sediments at the Razdol’naya River-Amur Bay cross-section (the Sea of Japan)

The concentration of Si, Al, Mg, K, Ca, Na, Sr, and Ba in the subcolloidal fraction of sediments at the Razdol’naya River-Amur Bay cross-section is determined using the atomic emission spectroscopy method. Computed is the mean content of studied elements in the soil and river bottom sediments (to the mixing zone). Revealed are river bottom sediments with the high concentration of macroelements corresponding to the zone of mixing of fresh river water and salt sea water. It is demonstrated that the additional accumulation of macroelements (Ca, Na, and Sr) in these sediments is associated with the formation of hydroxides of Fe and Mn and processes of sorption (Mg, Ca, Na, K, Sr, and Ba) on clay minerals (hydromica and smectites).     

Teleconnection between Sea Ice in the Barents Sea in June and the Silk Road,Pacific–Japan and East Asian Rainfall Patterns in August

In contrast to previous studies that have tended to focus on the influence of the total Arctic sea-ice cover on the East Asian summer tripole rainfall pattern, the present study identifies the Barents Sea as the key region where the June sea-ice variability exerts the most significant impacts on the East Asian August tripole rainfall pattern, and explores the teleconnection mechanisms involved. The results reveal that a reduction in June sea ice excites anomalous upward air motion due to strong near-surface thermal forcing, which further triggers a meridional overturning wave-like pattern extending to midlatitudes.Anomalous downward motion therefore forms over the Caspian Sea, which in turn induces zonally oriented overturning circulation along the subtropical jet stream, exhibiting the east–west Rossby wave train known as the Silk Road pattern. It is suggested that the Bonin high, a subtropical anticyclone predominant near South Korea, shows a significant anomaly due to the eastward extension of the Silk Road pattern to East Asia. As a possible descending branch of the Hadley cell, the Bonin high anomaly ultimately triggers a meridional overturning, establishing the Pacific–Japan pattern. This in turn induces an anomalous anticyclone and cyclone pair over East Asia, and a tripole vertical convection anomaly meridionally oriented over East Asia. Consequently, a tripole rainfall anomaly pattern is observed over East Asia. Results from numerical experiments using version 5 of the Community Atmosphere Model support the interpretation of this chain of events.     

Statistical and Comparative Analysis of Tropical Cyclone Activity over the Arabian Sea and Bay of Bengal (1977–2018)

A statistical comparative analysis of tropical cyclone activity over the Arabian Sea and Bay of Bengal (BoB) has been conducted using best-track data and wind radii information from 1977 to 2018 issued by the Joint Typhoon Warning Center. Results have shown that the annual variation in the frequency and duration of tropical cyclones has a significant increasing trend over the Arabian Sea and an insignificant decreasing trend over the BoB. The monthly frequency of tropical cyclones in both the Arabian Sea and the BoB shows a notable bimodal character, with peaks occurring in May and October–November, respectively. The maximum frequency of tropical cyclones occurs in the second peak as a result of the higher moisture content at mid-levels in the autumn. However, the largest proportion of strong cyclones (H1–H5 grades) occurs in the first peak as a result of the higher sea surface temperatures in early summer. Tropical cyclones in the Arabian Sea break out later during the first peak and activity ends earlier during the second peak, in contrast with those in the over BoB. This is related to the onset and drawback times of the southwest monsoon in the two basins. Tropical cyclones in the Arabian Sea are mainly generated in the eastern basin, whereas in the BoB the genesis locations have a meridional (zonal) distribution in May–June (October–November) as a result of the seasonal movement of the low-level positive vorticity belt. The Arabian Sea is dominated by western and northwestern tropical cyclones by that track west and NW, accounting for about 74.6%, whereas the tropical cyclones with a NE track account for only 25.4%. The proportions of the three types of tracks are similar in the BoB, with each accounting for about 33% of the tropical cyclones. The mean intensity and size of tropical cyclones over the Arabian Sea are stronger and larger, respectively, than those over the BoB and the size of tropical cyclones over the North Indian Ocean in early summer is larger than that in autumn. The asymmetrical structure of tropical cyclones over North Indian Ocean is affected by the topography and the longest radius of the 34 kt surface wind often lies in the eastern quadrant of the tropical cyclone circulation in both sea areas. FAN Xiao-ting (樊晓婷), LI Ying (李 英), et al.     

Temporal evolution of Hudson Bay Sea Ice (1971–2011)

Previous work has found Hudson Bay seasonal sea ice particularly sensitive to climate change with a strong signal of earlier breakup dates. This work extends the previous analysis by including eight additional years of recent sea ice data. The expanded sea ice record, 1971 to 2011, revealed stronger and more statistically significant trends than the earlier work, most strikingly for the later freeze up. The average magnitude of the temporal trend for all 36 locations studied is 0.50 days/year for earlier breakup, 0.46 days/year for the later freeze-up, and 0.91 days/year for longer ice-free period. Of the 36 points, 12 points for the breakup period, 30 points for the freeze-up period, and 22 points for the ice-free season have accelerating temporal trends during the past decade.     

Characteristic Study of the Boundary Layer Parameters over the Arabian Sea and the Bay of Bengal Using the QuikSCAT Dataset

The marine atmospheric boundary layer （MABL） plays a vital role in the transport of momentum and heat from the surface of the ocean into the atmosphere. A detailed study on the MABL characteristics was carried out using high-resolution surface-wind data as measured by the QuikSCAT （Quick scatterometer） satellite. Spatial variations in the surface wind, frictional velocity, roughness parameter and drag coefficient for the different seasons were studied. The surface wind was strong during the southwest monsoon season due to the modulation induced by the Low Level Jetstream. The drag coefficient was larger during this season, due to the strong winds and was lower during the winter months. The spatial variations in the frictional velocity over the seas was small during the post-monsoon season （-0.2 m s^-1）. The maximum spatial variation in the frictional velocity was found over the south Arabian Sea （0.3 to 0.5 m s^-1） during the southwest monsoon period, followed by the pre-monsoon over the Bay of Bengal （0.1 to 0.25 m s^-1）. The mean wind-stress curl during the winter was positive over the equatorial region, with a maximum value of 1.5×10^-7 N m^-3, but on either side of the equatorial belt, a negative wind-stress curl dominated. The area average of the frictional velocity and drag coefficient over the Arabian Sea and Bay of Bengal were also studied. The values of frictional velocity shows a variability that is similar to the intraseasonal oscillation （ISO） and this was confirmed via wavelet analysis. In the case of the drag coefficient, the prominent oscillations were ISO and quasi-biweekly mode （QBM）. The interrelationship between the drag coefficient and the frictional velocity with wind speed in both the Arabian Sea and the Bay of Bengal was also studied.     

Variability peculiarities of distribution of transparency and suspended matter content in the northwestern part of the Black Sea in spring caused by large-scale processes in the ocean–atmosphere system

The display is considered of global processes in the ocean-atmosphere system in the variability of hydrophysical and hydrobiological fields of the northwestern part of the Black Sea in spring period of 1978–1995. It is demonstrated that the variability of North Atlantic and Southern oscillations in winter-spring period affects the spring hydrometeorological conditions in catchment areas of European rivers of the Black Sea basin causing the variability of runoff volumes of these rivers and the scales of spreading river waters at the northwestern shelf. Hydrological and hydrobiological characteristics of shelf waters varying in the process influence the formation of distribution of suspended matter content and transparency.     

Regional intensity–duration–frequency analysis in the Eastern Black Sea Basin,Turkey, by using L-moments and regression analysis

The analysis of rainfall frequency is an important step in hydrology and water resources engineering. However, a lack of measuring stations, short duration of statistical periods, and unreliable outliers are among the most important problems when designing hydrology projects. In this study, regional rainfall analysis based on L-moments was used to overcome these problems in the Eastern Black Sea Basin (EBSB) of Turkey. The L-moments technique was applied at all stages of the regional analysis, including determining homogeneous regions, in addition to fitting and estimating parameters from appropriate distribution functions in each homogeneous region. We studied annual maximum rainfall height values of various durations (5 min to 24 h) from seven rain gauge stations located in the EBSB in Turkey, which have gauging periods of 39 to 70 years. Homogeneity of the region was evaluated by using L-moments. The goodness-of-fit criterion for each distribution was defined as the Z^DIST statistics, depending on various distributions, including generalized logistic (GLO), generalized extreme value (GEV), generalized normal (GNO), Pearson type 3 (PE3), and generalized Pareto (GPA). GLO and GEV determined the best distributions for short (5 to 30 min) and long (1 to 24 h) period data, respectively. Based on the distribution functions, the governing equations were extracted for calculation of intensities of 2, 5, 25, 50, 100, 250, and 500 years return periods (T). Subsequently, the T values for different rainfall intensities were estimated using data quantifying maximum amount of rainfall at different times. Using these T values, duration, altitude, latitude, and longitude values were used as independent variables in a regression model of the data. The determination coefficient (R ²) value indicated that the model yields suitable results for the regional relationship of intensity–duration–frequency (IDF), which is necessary for the design of hydraulic structures in small and medium sized catchments.     

The extent and intensity of the urban heat island in Iași city,Romania

The study underlines the characteristics of the urban heat island of Ia?i (Ia?i’s UHI) on the basis of 3 years of air temperature measurements obtained by fixed-point observations. We focus on the identification of UHI development and intensity as it is expressed by the temperature differences between the city centre and the rural surroundings. Annual, seasonal and daily characteristics of Ia?i’s UHI are investigated at the level of the classical weather observation. In brief, an intensity of 0.8 °C of UHI and a spatial extension which corresponds to the densely built area of the city were delineated. The Ia?i UHI is stronger during summer calm nights—when the inner city is warmer with 2.5–3 °C than the surroundings—and is weaker during windy spring days. The specific features of Ia?i’s UHI bear a profound connection to the specificity of the urban structure, the high atmospheric stability in the region and the local topography. Also, the effects of Ia?i’s UHI upon some environmental aspects are presented as study cases. For instance, under the direct influence of UHI, we have observed that in the city centre, the apricot tree blossoms earlier (with up to 4 days) and the depth of the snow cover is significantly lower (with up to 10 cm for a rural snow depth of 30 cm) than in the surrounding areas.     

Linking Cree hunters’ and scientific observations of changing inland ice and meteorological conditions in the subarctic eastern James Bay region, Canada

For the Cree First Nation communities of the eastern James Bay region in the Canadian Subarctic, local weather plays a key role in traditional subsistence activities. There is rising concern among the Cree about changes in inland ice conditions as they pose challenges to Cree livelihood, health and culture. Here we contrast Crees’ observations of inland ice conditions and long-term measurements obtained to foster interdisciplinary climate change research between scientists and Cree communities. We compiled qualitative observations of inland ice conditions and compared them with long-term measurements (> 25 years) of air temperature, precipitation and snow depth from three meteorological stations in the Cree territory. Cree hunters observed a weakening of lake ice cover (e.g., change in ice composition and structure, increased rain in winter). Trend analysis of long-term measurements showed a significant increase in mean autumn air temperature as well as in winter and autumn precipitation. By contrasting Cree hunters’ observations with climate data, we identified that an increase in fall and winter precipitation could be causing a weakening of inland ice through a change in its composition (i.e., snow ice instead of congelation ice). We conclude that Cree and scientific knowledge are complementary when investigating and understanding climate change in the Subarctic.     

Influence of synoptic processes on the vietnamese current (the South China Sea) Dynamics during the Winter–Summer 1999 transition period

Demonstrated is an influence of synoptic processes on the seasonal dynamics of the Vietnamese Current in the South China Sea varying its direction under the influence of the monsoon. The spring season of 1999 is used as an example of the transition from the winter to summer. In winter, under the influence of the northeastern monsoon, the current is directed from north to south and in the summer, at the southwestern monsoon, in the opposite direction. In the spring, two zones of different water modification are formed: an impact is observed of both the leaving winter monsoon and the coming summer monsoon. Considered is an atmospheric process of low-gradient field type, when the pressure field is characterized by the low pressure gradient over the whole South China Sea. It is revealed that the Vietnamese Current moves in the summer regime (from south to north) in the northern and southern parts and keeps the winter regime (from north to south) in the central part.     

Climatic Changes, Successions of Peatlands and Zonal Vegetation, and Peat Accumulation Dynamics in the Holocene (the West-Siberia Peat Profile ‘Vodorasdel’)

The developmental history of peatland and dry land vegetation within the Ob-Vasugan watershed of Western Siberia was characterized according to features of the plant communities and climatic changes which were revealed by stratigraphic, spore-pollen and C¹⁴ (carbon) data obtained from a vertical peat profile Vodorasdel. Changes in the paleoecological environment over the last 10000 years were divided into five periods. The climate was characterized in the Holocene according to these periods. At the watershed studied, peatland-forming processes started about 9510 years ago resulting in 550 cm of peat accumulation. The rate of peat accumulation within the watershed decreased over time from 1.9–0.3 mm year^{– 1}.     

Specific features of heat exchange between the Black Sea and the atmosphere in winter in 1971–1991

The reanalysis ofthree-dimensional fields of water temperature and velocity ofcurrents in the Black Sea in January–March in 1971–1991 is used for studying the spatial distribution of sea surface temperature, heat content of the upper layer, and heat fluxes on the sea surface near the Caucasian coast and the southern coast of Crimea. It is demonstrated that a warm current in the upper layer of the sea and the high values of the heat flux from the sea to the atmosphere are observed in these areas in winter. The possible effect of the above features on the interannual variability of winter air temperature in Sochi and Yalta is assessed.     

The influence of atmospheric circulation on the intensity of urban heat island and urban cold island in Poznań, Poland

The study has analyzed influence of an atmospheric circulation on urban heat island (UHI) and urban cold island (UCI) in Poznań. Analysis was conducted on the basis of temperature data from two measurement points situated in the city center and in the ?awica airport (reference station) and the data concerning the air circulation (Nied?wied?’s calendar of circulation types and reanalysis of National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP)/National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR)). The cases with UHI constitute about 85 % of all data, and UCI phenomena appear with a frequency of 14 % a year. The intensity of UHI phenomenon is higher in the anticyclonic circulation types. During the year in anticyclonic circulation, intensity of UHI is 1.2 °C on average while in cyclonic is only 0.8 °C. The occurring of UHI phenomena is possible throughout all seasons of the year in all hours of the day usually in anticyclonic circulation types. The cases with highest UHI intensity are related mostly to nighttime. The cases of UCI phenomena occurred almost ever on the daytime and the most frequently in colder part of the year together with cyclonic circulation. Study based on reanalysis data indicates that days with large intensity of UHI (above 4, 5, and 6 °C) are related to anticyclonic circulation. Anticyclonic circulation is also promoting the formation of the strongest UCI. Results based on both reanalysis and the atmospheric circulation data (Nied?wied?’s circulation type) confirm that cases with the strongest UHI and UCI during the same day occur in strong high-pressure system with the center situated above Poland or central Europe.     

Implications of Japan’s long term climate mitigation target and the relevance of uncertain nuclear policy

Achieving long-term climate mitigation goals in Japan faces several challenges, starting with the uncertain nuclear power policy after the 2011 earthquake, the uncertain availability and progress of energy technologies, as well as energy security concerns in light of a high dependency on fuel imports. The combined weight of these challenges needs to be clarified in terms of the energy system and macroeconomic impacts. We applied a general equilibrium energy economic model to assess these impacts on an 80% emission reduction target by 2050 considering several alternative scenarios for nuclear power deployment, technology availability, end use energy efficiency, and the price of fossil fuels. We found that achieving the mitigation target was feasible for all scenarios, with considerable reductions in total energy consumption (39%–50%), higher shares of low-carbon sources (43%–72% compared to 15%), and larger shares of electricity in the final energy supply (51%–58% compared to 42%). The economic impacts of limiting nuclear power by 2050 (3.5% GDP loss) were small compared to the lack of carbon capture and storage (CCS) (6.4% GDP loss). Mitigation scenarios led to an improvement in energy security indicators (trade dependency and diversity of primary energy sources) even in the absence of nuclear power. Moreover, preliminary analysis indicates that expanding the range of renewable energy resources can lower the macroeconomic impacts of the long term target considerably, and thus further in depth analysis is needed on this aspect.

Key policy insights

• For Japan, an emissions reduction target of 80% by 2050 is feasible without nuclear power or CCS.

• The macroeconomic impact of such a 2050 target was largest without CCS, and smallest without nuclear power.

• Energy security indicators improved in mitigation scenarios compared to the baseline.

     

Analysis and farmers’ perception of climate change in the Kashmir Valley,India

Theoretical and Applied Climatology - Analysis of climatic variables is important for the detection and attribution of climate change trends and has received considerable attention from researchers...     

Formation and evolution of anomalous tropical storm over the Bay of Bengal in April–May 2008

An evolution of the anomalous tropical storm is considered developed on April 29–May 4, 2008 over the Bay of Bengal. After the origination, it spread eastward through the Andaman Sea and reached the Myanmar coast. The analysis of formation and development of the tropical storm over the water area of the Bay of Bengal demonstrated that the sea level pressure at the center of this storm was rather high. Nevertheless, catastrophically large precipitation amount fell in Myanmar.     

Long-term analysis of hydrography and sea-ice data in Tvärminne,Gulf of Finland,Baltic Sea

We present an analysis of the inter-annual variability of hydrography—temperature and salinity – and ice conditions at the coastal site of Tvärminne, Gulf of Finland, Baltic Sea during the period 1927–2012. The aim is to analyze the natural variability and trends of the hydrographic characteristics, freezing and breakup dates, ice thickness, and the heat content during the last century. The study also includes the inter-connections between the ice season and the surface temperature and salinity in the open water season. The results showed a significant decrease of the ice season length, by almost 30 days. The maximum annual ice thickness decreased by 8 cm in the last 40 years. The surface water temperature increased by almost 1 °C and there was also an increasing trend in the heat content. The thermal memory of the system was 2–2.5 months. The surface salinity increased by 0.5 psu in the last 85 years. The results are discussed and compared to related studies.