A link between winter precipitation in Europe and the Arctic Sea ice,sea surface temperature,and atmospheric circulation

The spatial and temporal pattern of the link between the winter precipitation variability and variations in the North Atlantic sea surface temperature, the Arctic sea ice concentration, and 500 hPa geopotential height in the Northern Hemisphere is analyzed for the period of 1952-2012. The analysis reveals two principal modes of covariability in the analyzed characteristics. The first mode which explains the most part of covariability, is related to the impact of the North Atlantic Oscillation. The second mode indicates the significant contribution of the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation associated with winter precipitation anomalies of the same sign in Europe with the maxima on the East European Plain and in the Balkan region during the positive phase of AMO.     

The 20th century cooling trend over the southeastern United States

Portions of the southern and southeastern United States, primarily Mississippi, Alabama, and Georgia, have experienced century-long (1895–2007) downward air temperature trends that occur in all seasons. Superimposed on them are shifts in mean temperatures on decadal scales characterized by alternating warm (1930s–1940s, 1990s) and cold (1900s; 1960s–1970s) regimes. Regional atmospheric circulation and SST teleconnection indices, station-based cloud cover and soil moisture (Palmer drought severity index) data are used in stepwise multiple linear regression models. These models identify predictors linked to observed winter, summer, and annual Southeastern air temperature variability, the observed variance (r²) they explain, and the resulting prediction and residual time series. Long-term variations and trends in tropical Pacific sea temperatures, cloud cover, soil moisture and the North Atlantic and Arctic oscillations account for much of the air temperature downtrends. Soil moisture and cloud cover are the primary predictors of 59.6 % of the observed summer temperature variance. While the teleconnections, cloud cover and moisture data account for some of the annual and summer Southeastern cooling trend, large significant downward trending residuals remain in winter and summer. Comparison is made to the northeastern United States where large twentieth century upward air temperature trends are driven by cloud cover increases and Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) variability. Differences between the Northeastern warming and the Southeastern cooling trends in summer are attributable in part to the differing roles of cloud cover, soil moisture, the Arctic Oscillation and the AMO on air temperatures of the 2 regions.     

Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation and Northern Hemisphere’s climate variability

Proxy and instrumental records reflect a quasi-cyclic 50–80-year climate signal across the Northern Hemisphere, with particular presence in the North Atlantic. Modeling studies rationalize this variability in terms of intrinsic dynamics of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation influencing distribution of sea-surface-temperature anomalies in the Atlantic Ocean; hence the name Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO). By analyzing a lagged covariance structure of a network of climate indices, this study details the AMO-signal propagation throughout the Northern Hemisphere via a sequence of atmospheric and lagged oceanic teleconnections, which the authors term the “stadium wave”. Initial changes in the North Atlantic temperature anomaly associated with AMO culminate in an oppositely signed hemispheric signal about 30?years later. Furthermore, shorter-term, interannual-to-interdecadal climate variability alters character according to polarity of the stadium-wave-induced prevailing hemispheric climate regime. Ongoing research suggests mutual interaction between shorter-term variability and the stadium wave, with indication of ensuing modifications of multidecadal variability within the Atlantic sector. Results presented here support the hypothesis that AMO plays a significant role in hemispheric and, by inference, global climate variability, with implications for climate-change attribution and prediction.     

Low-frequency modulation of the Atlantic warm pool by the Atlantic multidecadal oscillation

This paper investigates the low-frequency modulation of the Atlantic warm pool (AWP) by the Atlantic multidecadal oscillation (AMO). Consistent with previous study, it shows that the time series of AWP area varies in phase with the AMO on multidecadal timescales. However, the variability of AWP area is out of phase with the AMO: A small (large) variance of AWP area is associated with the AMO warm (cold) phase. In addition, the modulation of AWP area variability by the AMO has a large seasonality, with a small (large) modulation in summer (fall). The modulation of the annual AWP area variability is primarily determined by the low frequency changes in the Pacific ENSO and the local heat flux feedback, and countered by the low frequency changes in the North Atlantic Oscillation and the ocean mixed layer depth. The local heat flux feedback and mixed layer depth change also play important roles in the AMO-modulated seasonality of the AWP area variability.     

Modulation of the Aleutian–Icelandic Low Seesaw and Its Surface Impacts by the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation

Early studies suggested that the Aleutian–Icelandic low seesaw(AIS) features multidecadal variation. In this study, the multidecadal modulation of the AIS and associated surface climate by the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation(AMO) during late winter(February–March) is explored with observational data. It is shown that, in the cold phase of the AMO(AMO|-),a clear AIS is established, while this is not the case in the warm phase of the AMO(AMO|+). The surface climate over Eurasia is significantly influenced by the AMO's modulation of the Aleutian low(AL). For example, the weak AL in AMO|-displays warmer surface temperatures over the entire Far East and along the Russian Arctic coast and into Northern Europe,but only over the Russian Far East in AMO|+. Similarly, precipitation decreases over central Europe with the weak AL in AMO|-, but decreases over northern Europe and increases over southern Europe in AMO|+.The mechanism underlying the influence of AMO|-on the AIS can be described as follows: AMO|-weakens the upward component of the Eliassen–Palm flux along the polar waveguide by reducing atmospheric blocking occurrence over the Euro–Atlantic sector, and hence drives an enhanced stratospheric polar vortex. With the intensified polar night jet, the wave trains originating over the central North Pacific can propagate horizontally through North America and extend into the North Atlantic, favoring an eastward-extended Pacific–North America–Atlantic pattern, and resulting in a significant AIS at the surface during late winter.     

基于信息流理论的因果分析在辨析大西洋多年代际振荡物理机制中的应用

大西洋多年代际振荡（AMO）是指发生在北大西洋的海表温度（SST）冷暖异常多年代际（50～80年）振荡的现象。通常AMO被认为是受大西洋经向翻转环流（AMOC）及其对应的海洋动力过程（经向热量输运）的影响。近年来有观点认为,AMO是大气随机热力强迫的产物,大气主导了海气间的热量交换进而影响AMO。弄清AMO和北大西洋海表热通量的因果关系是辨析AMO动力和热力驱动机制的关键。本文利用基于信息流理论的因果分析方法,研究了1880年以来观测的AMO与北大西洋海表热通量间的因果关系。结果表明,在多年代际尺度上,从AMO到海表热通量的信息流要远大于二者相反方向的信息流,这说明AMO是北大西洋海表热通量异常的因,海洋主导了海气间的热量交换。大气随机热力强迫机制无法解释AMO与热通量两者因果分析的结果。对泛大西洋地区的陆地气温和AMO指数进行分析,进一步表明由于海洋主导了海气热量交换,AMO的海温异常加热/冷却控制了绝大多数地区气温的多年代际变化。利用海温驱动的大气环流模式的模拟结果验证了AMO的海温异常对周边陆地气温强迫作用。本文的结果为辨析AMO的动力和热力驱动机制提供了新线索,进一步表明AMO并非是大气随机热力强迫的产物,海洋环流可能是AMO的主要驱动因子。     

Drivers of long-term precipitation and runoff variability in the southeastern USA

The hydroclimatology of the southeastern USA (AL, GA, NC, SC, and TN) is analyzed from a holistic perspective, including multiple climate drivers. Monthly precipitation modeled by the PRISM group and runoff data (1952–2011) from 18 basins are analyzed using a single-field based principal component’s analysis. Results indicate that the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation and El Niño-Southern Oscillation are the main atmospheric drivers of hydroclimate variability in the region, sometimes operating at several months’ lag. Their influence is the strongest in the fall through spring, which corresponds with the dry season in the southern parts of the study area thereby increasing pressure on already limited water resources. The Arctic Oscillation, North Atlantic Oscillation, and Pacific-North American patterns vary on shorter-term bases, and also show a significant, but temporally more sporadic influence. Insight is also brought to the ongoing discussion, confirming the disassociation of the Arctic and North Atlantic Oscillation. Findings can be used in water resources forecasting, giving an indication of expected water volumes several months ahead.     

东西伯利亚——波弗特海海冰多年代际变率及其与大西洋多年代际振荡的联系

基于哈得来中心（Hadley Centre）逐月的海表温度、海冰密集度资料以及美国国家环境预报中心/国家大气研究中心（NCEP/NCAR）的大气环流再分析资料,分析了1950—2020年秋季（8—10月）东西伯利亚—波弗特海（East Siberian-Beaufort,EsCB）海冰年代际变化的时空特征,并阐述了大西洋多年代际振荡（Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation,AMO）对EsCB海冰年代际变率的可能调制作用。结果表明,EsCB是秋季北极海冰年代际变化最主要的区域,该区海冰密集度年代际变率可占其异常总方差的40%以上。进一步研究发现,AMO对秋季EsCB海冰存在明显的调制作用,在AMO正位相,北大西洋正海温异常激发向极传播的大气罗斯贝波列,有利于北极中部出现高压异常,相应的大气绝热下沉运动使得对流层低层出现明显的升温,从而有利于EsCB海冰的融化。与此同时,地表升温和EsCB海冰消融会引起局地云量的增多、大气向下长波辐射增大,这反过来又使得地表气温升高,这种地表气温-云-长波辐射的正反馈过程有利于年代际海冰信号的长时间维持。耦合模式的北大西洋“起搏...     

北大西洋多年代际振荡（AMO）对南海夏季风撤退年代际变率的影响及可能机理

基于美国国家海洋和大气管理局（NOAA）物理科学实验室（PSL）和科罗拉多大学环境科学研究所（CIRES）重建的NOAA-CIRES 20th再分析数据和国际综合海洋大气数据集（ICOADS）的全球月海表温度数据（ERSST）,并结合数值试验分析了南海夏季风撤退的年代际变率特征及北大西洋多年代际振荡（AMO）对其产生的影响。结果表明,南海夏季风撤退时间具有明显的年代际变率,南海夏季风撤退偏晚（早）年代中国南海及其附近区域上空有显著的气旋性（反气旋性）环流异常,降水偏多（少）。进一步研究发现,AMO与南海夏季风撤退年代际变率呈显著正相关,即AMO为正位相时,南海夏季风撤退偏晚;AMO为负位相时,南海夏季风撤退偏早。北大西洋海温升高（即AMO位于正位相）,从海洋释放更多的热通量到大气,导致北大西洋上空对流层的对流活动明显增强,通过海-气相互作用激发北大西洋上空的波活动异常,进而影响与东北亚关键区域大气环流变化密切相关的中纬度欧亚遥相关波列的形成和传播,引起东北亚关键区的正位势高度异常和明显的下沉运动,并在其对流层低层产生辐散运动,能量伴随着偏北的辐散风气流传播至中国南海及邻近区域辐合上升,进一步加强了南海区域的气旋性环流异常,使得南海夏季风撤退偏晚。AMO负位相时,异常情况与之大致相反,使得南海夏季风撤退偏早。      

Decadal scale oscillations and trend in the Indian monsoon rainfall

The emerging need for extended climate prediction requires a consideration of the relative roles of climate change and low-frequency natural variability on decadal scale. Addressing this issue, this study has shown that the variability of the Indian monsoon rainfall (IMR) consists of three decadal scale oscillations and a nonlinear trend during 1901–2004. The space–time structures of the decadal oscillations are described. The IMR decadal oscillations are shown to be associated with Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO), Atlantic tripole oscillation and Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO). The sea surface temperatures (SSTs) of the North Pacific and North Atlantic Oceans are also resolved as nonlinear decadal oscillations. The SST AMO mode has high positive correlation with IMR while the SST tripole mode and SST PDO have negative correlation. The trend in IMR increases during the first half of the period and decreases during the second half. The IMR trend is modified when combined with the three decadal oscillations.     

北大西洋年代际振荡（AMO）气候影响的研究评述

北大西洋年代际振荡（theAtlantic Multidecadal Oscillation,AMO）是发生在北大西洋区域空间上具有海盆尺度、时间上具有多十年尺度的海表温度（sea surface temperature,SST）准周期性暖冷异常变化。它具有65～80a周期,振幅为0.4℃。AMO的形成与热盐环流的准周期性振荡有关,它是气候系统的一种自然变率。诸多研究表明,AMO在北大西洋局地气候及全球其他区域气候演变中发挥了重要影响。欧亚大陆的表面气温,美国大陆、巴西东北部、西非以及南亚的降水,北大西洋飓风等都与之密切相关。AMO对东亚季风气候的年代际变化有显著的调制作用,暖位相AMO增强东亚夏季风,减弱冬季风,冷位相则相反。本文总结了这方面的研究进展,讨论了AMO对未来气候预测的意义,认为最近20多年来我国冬季的显著增暖与AMO处于暖位相有关,是人类温室气体强迫与暖位相AMO（自然因子）两种增暖影响相叠加的结果。随着AMO逐渐转入冷位相,我国冬季变暖趋势将放慢,并有望于21世纪20年代中期逆转。     

Atlantic multidecadal oceanic variability and its influence on the atmosphere in a climate model

The mechanisms controlling the decadal to multidecadal variability of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (MOC) and its influence on the atmosphere are investigated using a control simulation with the IPSL-CM4 climate model. The multidecadal fluctuations of the MOC are mostly driven by deep convection in the subpolar gyre, which occurs south of Iceland in the model. The latter is primarily influenced by the anomalous advection of salinity due to changes in the East Atlantic Pattern (EAP), which is the second mode of atmospheric variability in the North Atlantic region. The North Atlantic Oscillation is the dominant mode, but it plays a secondary role in the MOC fluctuations. During summer, the MOC variability is shown to have a significant impact on the atmosphere in the North Atlantic–European sector. The MOC influence is due to an interhemispheric sea surface temperature (SST) anomaly with opposite signs in the two hemispheres but largest amplitude in the northern one. The SST pattern driven by the MOC mostly resembles the model Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) and bears some similarity with the observed one. It is shown that the AMO reflects both the MOC influence and the local atmospheric forcing. Hence, the MOC influence on climate is best detected using lagged relations between climatic fields. The atmospheric response resembles the EAP, in a phase that might induce a weak positive feedback on the MOC.     

Simulation by CMIP5 models of the atlantic multidecadal oscillation and its climate impacts

This study focuses on the climatic impacts of the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) as a mode of internal variability. Given the difficulties involved in excluding the effects of external forcing from internal variation, i.e., owing to the short record length of instrumental observations and historical simulations, we assess and compare the AMO and its related climatic impacts both in observations and in the “Pre-industrial” experiments of models participating in CMIP5. First, we evaluate the skill of the 25 CMIP5 models’ “Historical” simulations in simulating the observational AMO, and find there is generally a considerable range of skill among them in this regard. Six of the models with higher skill relative to the other models are selected to investigate the AMO-related climate impacts, and it is found that their “Pre-industrial” simulations capture the essential features of the AMO. A positive AMO favors warmer surface temperature around the North Atlantic, and the Atlantic ITCZ shifts northward leading to more rainfall in the Sahel and less rainfall in Brazil. Furthermore, the results confirm the existence of a teleconnection between the AMO and East Asian surface temperature, as well as the late withdrawal of the Indian summer monsoon, during positive AMO phases. These connections could be mainly caused by internal climate variability. Opposite patterns are true for the negative phase of the AMO.     

A brief introduction to the issue of climate and marine fisheries

Climatic variability has profound effects on the distribution, abundance and catch of oceanic fish species around the world. The major modes of this climate variability include the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events, the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) also referred to as the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation (IPO), the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD), the Southern Annular Mode (SAM) and the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). Other modes of climate variability include the North Pacific Gyre Oscillation (NPGO), the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) and the Arctic Oscillation (AO). ENSO events are the principle source of interannual global climate variability, centred in the ocean–atmosphere circulations of the tropical Pacific Ocean and operating on seasonal to interannual time scales. ENSO and the strength of its climate teleconnections are modulated on decadal timescales by the IPO. The time scale of the IOD is seasonal to interannual. The SAM in the mid to high latitudes of the Southern Hemisphere operates in the range of 50–60 days. A prominent teleconnection pattern throughout the year in the Northern Hemisphere is the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) which modulates the strength of the westerlies across the North Atlantic in winter, has an impact on the catches of marine fisheries. ENSO events affect the distribution of tuna species in the equatorial Pacific, especially skipjack tuna as well as the abundance and distribution of fish along the western coasts of the Americas. The IOD modulates the distribution of tuna populations and catches in the Indian Ocean, whilst the NAO affects cod stocks heavily exploited in the Atlantic Ocean. The SAM, and its effects on sea surface temperatures influence krill biomass and fisheries catches in the Southern Ocean. The response of oceanic fish stocks to these sources of climatic variability can be used as a guide to the likely effects of climate change on these valuable resources.     

Trends and Variability of Sea Surface Temperature in the Northwest Atlantic from Three Historical Gridded Datasets

ABSTRACT

Historical variability in sea surface temperature (SST) in the North Atlantic (NA) is examined using trend and Empirical Orthogonal Function (EOF) analyses of annual and summer means from three interpolated monthly datasets: Hadley Centre Sea Ice and Sea Surface Temperature (HadISST1), Extended Reconstruction of SST (ERSST), and Centennial in situ Observation-Based Estimates (COBE). Comparisons with time series of upper-ocean temperature from four monitoring sites off Atlantic Canada reveal substantial similarity in the interannual to multi-decadal variability but notable differences in the longer-term trends. The magnitude of decadal-scale variability is comparable to, or greater than, the long-term changes in all of the datasets; together with the trend discrepancies, this needs to be considered in climate change applications. Averaged over the NA, the annual means have a long-term increasing trend and a pronounced multi-decadal variation, resembling those in global mean (land-ocean) surface temperature and the Atlantic Multi-decadal Oscillation (AMO). There is remarkable similarity in the spatial and temporal variability of the three leading EOF modes from the different gridded datasets, with the first highly correlated with the AMO, the second modestly correlated with the winter North Atlantic Oscillation, and the third apparently related to ocean circulation variability. Trends since 1981 are generally two to three times larger than those since 1900 and 1950, which is at least partly related to the phase of the AMO. Trends in the summer means are generally larger than in the annual means. Overall, the results provide support for both anthropogenic global warming and decadal-scale natural variations making important contributions to ocean climate variability in the Northwest Atlantic.     

Arctic sea ice and the Madden–Julian Oscillation (MJO)

Arctic sea ice responds to atmospheric forcing in primarily a top-down manner, whereby near-surface air circulation and temperature govern motion, formation, melting, and accretion. As a result, concentrations of sea ice vary with phases of many of the major modes of atmospheric variability, including the North Atlantic Oscillation, the Arctic Oscillation, and the El Niño-Southern Oscillation. However, until this present study, variability of sea ice by phase of the leading mode of atmospheric intraseasonal variability, the Madden–Julian Oscillation (MJO), which has been found to modify Arctic circulation and temperature, remained largely unstudied. Anomalies in daily change in sea ice concentration were isolated for all phases of the real-time multivariate MJO index during both summer (May–July) and winter (November–January) months. The three principal findings of the current study were as follows. (1) The MJO projects onto the Arctic atmosphere, as evidenced by statistically significant wavy patterns and consistent anomaly sign changes in composites of surface and mid-tropospheric atmospheric fields. (2) The MJO modulates Arctic sea ice in both summer and winter seasons, with the region of greatest variability shifting with the migration of the ice margin poleward (equatorward) during the summer (winter) period. Active regions of coherent ice concentration variability were identified in the Atlantic sector on days when the MJO was in phases 4 and 7 and the Pacific sector on days when the MJO was in phases 2 and 6, all supported by corresponding anomalies in surface wind and temperature. During July, similar variability in sea ice concentration was found in the North Atlantic sector during MJO phases 2 and 6 and Siberian sector during MJO phases 1 and 5, also supported by corresponding anomalies in surface wind. (3) The MJO modulates Arctic sea ice regionally, often resulting in dipole-shaped patterns of variability between anomaly centers. These results provide an important first look at intraseasonal variability of sea ice in the Arctic.     

Tree-ring inferred annual mean temperature variations on the southeastern Tibetan Plateau during the last millennium and their relationships with the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation

We present two tree-ring chronologies for the southeastern Tibetan Plateau (TP), established by applying the signal-free regional curve standardization and standard dendrochronological methodologies to a set of ring-width series of Tibetan juniper. The relationship between tree growth and climate shows that temperature variability in the previous year is the primary factor controlling tree growth at the upper portion of the forest belt. Accordingly, we developed a mean annual temperature reconstruction covering the period A.D. 984–2009 and explaining 50 % of the instrumental variance. The spatial correlation patterns suggest that our temperature reconstruction is a reasonable proxy for temperature change over the TP. At long time scales, the temperature reconstruction shows similar warm-cold patterns to those in temperature records from other regions of the TP, indicating that decadal and multidecadal temperature variations were generally synchronous across the TP during the past millennium. The periods 1140–1350 and 1600–1800 were common warm and cold episodes over the TP, respectively. Comparison of our reconstruction with four Northern Hemisphere (NH) temperature series indicates that temperature changes on the southeastern TP have generally followed the NH temperature patterns during the past millennium. Our results also suggest that temperature variability over the TP is affected by the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO), with the warm (cool) phases of the AMO associated with above-average (below-average) temperatures over the TP.     

An overview of decadal climate predictability in a multi-model ensemble by climate model MIROC

Decadal climate predictability is examined in hindcast experiments by a multi-model ensemble using three versions of the coupled atmosphere-ocean model MIROC. In these hindcast experiments, initial conditions are obtained from an anomaly assimilation procedure using the observed oceanic temperature and salinity with prescribed natural and anthropogenic forcings on the basis of the historical data and future emission scenarios in the Intergovernmental Panel of Climate Change. Results of the multi-model ensemble in our hindcast experiments show that predictability of surface air temperature (SAT) anomalies on decadal timescales mostly originates from externally forced variability. Although the predictable component of internally generated variability has considerably smaller SAT variance than that of externally forced variability, ocean subsurface temperature variability has predictive skills over almost a decade, particularly in the North Pacific and the North Atlantic where dominant signals associated with Pacific decadal oscillation (PDO) and the Atlantic multidecadal oscillation (AMO) are observed. Initialization enhances the predictive skills of AMO and PDO indices and slightly improves those of global mean temperature anomalies. Improvement of these predictive skills in the multi-model ensemble is higher than that in a single-model ensemble.     

Interdecadal variability of the meridional Ekman heat and mass transport in the North Atlantic and its relation to the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation

Average long-term and average annual values of meridional Ekman heat (mass) transport are estimated using the NCEP/NCAR (for 1948-2014) and 20CR (for 1871-2012) atmospheric reanalyses, and their interdecadal variability is analyzed. It was corroborated that the typical period of interdecadal variability of meridional Ekman transport in the North Atlantic coincides with that of the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) and is about 60 years. The strengthening of northeastern trade winds and westerlies accompanied by the development of the negative phase of AMO occurred in the 1880s-1920s and in the 1960s-1990s. The opposite trend is observed for the 1930s-1950s and for the period from the 1990s till the beginning of the 21st century.     

Atmospheric response to the North Atlantic Ocean variability on seasonal to decadal time scales

The NCEP twentieth century reanalyis and a 500-year control simulation with the IPSL-CM5 climate model are used to assess the influence of ocean-atmosphere coupling in the North Atlantic region at seasonal to decadal time scales. At the seasonal scale, the air-sea interaction patterns are similar in the model and observations. In both, a statistically significant summer sea surface temperature (SST) anomaly with a horseshoe shape leads an atmospheric signal that resembles the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) during the winter. The air-sea interactions in the model thus seem realistic, although the amplitude of the atmospheric signal is half that observed, and it is detected throughout the cold season, while it is significant only in late fall and early winter in the observations. In both model and observations, the North Atlantic horseshoe SST anomaly pattern is in part generated by the spring and summer internal atmospheric variability. In the model, the influence of the ocean dynamics can be assessed and is found to contribute to the SST anomaly, in particular at the decadal scale. Indeed, the North Atlantic SST anomalies that follow an intensification of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) by about 9 years, or an intensification of a clockwise intergyre gyre in the Atlantic Ocean by 6 years, resemble the horseshoe pattern, and are also similar to the model Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO). As the AMOC is shown to have a significant impact on the winter NAO, most strongly when it leads by 9 years, the decadal interactions in the model are consistent with the seasonal analysis. In the observations, there is also a strong correlation between the AMO and the SST horseshoe pattern that influences the NAO. The analogy with the coupled model suggests that the natural variability of the AMOC and the gyre circulation might influence the climate of the North Atlantic region at the decadal scale.