Interannual variability in the onset of the summer monsoon over the Eastern Bay of Bengal

Summary Climatological characteristics associated with summer monsoon onset over the eastern Bay of Bengal (BOB) are examined in terms of the westerly-easterly boundary surface (WEB). The vertical tilt of the WEB depends on the horizontal meridional temperature gradient (MTG) near the WEB, under the constraint of the thermal wind balance. The switch in the WEB tilt firstly occurs between 90 and 100°E during the first pentad of May. At this time the 850 hPa ridgeline splits over the BOB and heavy rainfall commences over the eastern BOB, indicating the onset of the BOB summer monsoon (BOBSM). The area-averaged MTG (200–500 hPa) is proposed as an index to define the BOBSM onset. A comparison of the onset determined by the MTG, 850 hPa zonal wind, and outgoing longwave radiation (OLR) shows that the MTG index is the most effective in characterizing the interannual variability of the BOBSM onset. Strong precursor signals are found prior to an anomalous BOBSM onset. Composite results show that early (late) BOBSM onset follows excessive (deficient) rainfall over the western Pacific and anomalous lower tropospheric cyclonic circulation which extends zonally from the northern Indian Ocean into the western Pacific, and strong (weak) equatorial westerly anomalies in the preceding winter and spring. Prior to an early (late) BOBSM onset, significant positive (negative) thickness anomalies exist around the Tibetan Plateau, accompanied by anomalous upper tropospheric anticyclonic (cyclonic) circulation. The interannual variations of the BOBSM onset are significantly correlated with anomalous sea surface temperature related to ENSO. These occurs through changes in the Walker circulation and local Hadley circulation, leading to middle and upper tropospheric temperature anomalies over the Asian sector. The strong precursor signals around the Tibetan Plateau may be partly caused by local snow cover anomalies, and an early (late) BOBSM onset is preceded by less (more) snow accumulation over the Tibetan Plateau during the preceding winter.     

Onset of the summer monsoon over the southern Vietnam and its predictability

The summer monsoon onset over southern Vietnam is determined through a new criterion based on both in situ daily rainfall at six selected stations provided by the Institute of Meteorology and Hydrology, Vietnam, and the zonal component of the wind at 1,000 hPa from the National Center for Environmental Prediction/Department of Energy Reanalysis 2. Over the period 1979–2004, the summer monsoon onset mean date is on 12 May, with a standard deviation of 11.6 days. The temporal and spatial structures of the atmospheric conditions prevailing during the onset period are detailed. Clear changes are seen in the zonal wind (strengthened over the Bay of Bengal and changed from negative to positive over South Vietnam) and in convection (deeper), in association with an intensification of the meridional gradients of sea level pressure at 1,000 hPa and of moist static energy at 2 m over Southeast Asia. The predictability of onset dates is then assessed. Cross-validated hindcasts based upon four predictors linked to robust signals in the atmospheric dynamics are then provided. They are highly significant when compared to observations (56% of common variance). Basically, late (early) onsets are preceded in March–April by higher (lower) sea level pressure over the East China Sea, stronger (weaker) southeasterly winds over southern Vietnam, decreasing (increasing) deep convection over the Bay of Bengal, and the reverse situation over Indonesia (120–140°E, 0–10°S).     

Subseasonal variability during the South China Sea summer monsoon onset

Analysis of the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) Microwave Imager (TMI) data for the period 1998–2007 reveals large subseasonal fluctuations in sea surface temperature (SST) of the South China Sea during the summer monsoon onset. These subseasonal SST changes are closely related to surface heat flux anomalies induced by surface wind and cloud changes in association with the summer monsoon onset. The SST changes feed back on the atmosphere by modifying the atmospheric instability. The results suggest that the South China Sea summer monsoon onset involves ocean–atmosphere coupling on subseasonal timescales. While the SST response to surface heat flux changes is quick and dramatic, the time lag between the SST anomalies and the atmospheric convection response varies largely from year to year. The spatial–temporal evolution of subseasonal anomalies indicates that the subseasonal variability affecting the South China Sea summer monsoon onset starts over the equatorial western Pacific, propagates northward to the Philippine Sea, and then moves westward to the South China Sea. The propagation of these subseasonal anomalies is related to the ocean–atmosphere interaction, involving the wind-evaporation and cloud-radiation effects on SST as well as SST impacts on lower-level convergence over the equatorial western Pacific and atmospheric instability over the Philippine Sea and the South China Sea.     

The Summer Monsoon Onset over the Tropical Eastern Indian Ocean： The Earliest Onset Process of the Asian Summer Monsoon

The onset process of the tropical eastern Indian Ocean (TEIO) summer monsoon (TEIOSM) and its relationship with the cross-equatorial flows are investigated via climatological analysis. Climatologically, results indicate that the earliest onset process of the Asian summer monsoon occurs over the TEIO at pentad 22 (April 15–20). Unlike the abrupt onset of the South China Sea (SCS) summer monsoon, the TEIOSM onset process displays a stepwise advance. Moreover, a close relationship between the TEIOSM development and the northward push of the cross-equatorial flows over 80–90E is revealed. A difference vorticity center, together with the counterpart over the southern Indian Ocean, constitutes a pair of difference cyclonic vortices, which strengthens the southwesterly wind over the TEIO and the northerly wind to the west of the Indian Peninsula from the end of March to late May. Therefore, the occurrence of the southwesterly wind over the TEIO is earlier than its counterpart over the tropical western Indian Ocean, and the cross-equatorial flows emerge firstly over the TEIO rather than over the Somali area. The former increases in intensity during its northward propagation, which provides a precondition for the TEIOSM onset and its northward advance.     

Potential impacts of East Asian winter monsoon on climate variability and predictability in the Australian summer monsoon region

This study explores potential impacts of the East Asian winter monsoon (EAWM) on summer climate variability and predictability in the Australia–Asian region through Australia–Asia (A-A) monsoon interactions. Observational analysis is conducted for the period of 1959 to 2001 using ERA-40 wind reanalysis and Climate Research Unit rainfall and surface temperature monthly datasets. Statistically significant correlations are established between the Australian summer monsoon and its rainfall variations with cross-equatorial flows penetrating from South China Sea region and northerly flow in the EAWM. The underlying mechanism for such connections is the response of the position and intensity of Hardley circulation to strong/weak EAWM. A strong EAWM is associated with an enhanced cross-equatorial flow crossing the maritime continent and a strengthened Australia summer monsoon westerlies which affect rainfall and temperature variations in northern and eastern part of the Australian continent. Furthermore, partial correlation analysis, which largely excludes El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) effects, suggests that these connections are the inherent features in the monsoon system. This is further supported by analyzing a global model experiment using persistent sea surface temperatures (SSTs) which, without any SST interannual variations, shows similar patterns as in the observational analysis. Furthermore, such interaction could potentially affect climate predictability in the region, as shown by some statistically significant lag correlations at monthly time scale. Such results are attributed to the impacts of EAWM on regional SST variations and its linkage to surface conditions in the Eurasian continent. Finally, such impacts under global warmed climate are discussed by analyzing ten IPCC AR4 models and results suggest they still exist in the warmed climate even though the EAWM tends to be weaker.     

Multi-stage onset of the summer monsoon over the western North Pacific

 The climatological summer monsoon onset displays a distinct step wise northeastward movement over the South China Sea and the western North Pacific (WNP) (110°–160°E, 10°–20°N). Monsoon rain commences over the South China Sea-Philippines region in mid-May, extends abruptly to the southwestern Philippine Sea in early to mid-June, and finally penetrates to the northeastern part of the domain around mid-July. In association, three abrupt changes are identified in the atmospheric circulation. Specifically, the WNP subtropical high displays a sudden eastward retreat or quick northward displacement and the monsoon trough pushes abruptly eastward or northeastward at the onset of the three stages. The step wise movement of the onset results from the slow northeastward seasonal evolution of large-scale circulation and the phase-locked intraseasonal oscillation (ISO). The seasonal evolution establishes a large-scale background for the development of convection and the ISO triggers deep convection. The ISO over the WNP has a dominant period of about 20–30 days. This determines up the time interval between the consecutive stages of the monsoon onset. From the atmospheric perspective, the seasonal sea surface temperature (SST) change in the WNP plays a critical role in the northeastward advance of the onset. The seasonal northeastward march of the warmest SST tongue (SST exceeding 29.5 °C) favors the northeastward movement of the monsoon trough and the high convective instability region. The seasonal SST change, in turn, is affected by the monsoon through cloud-radiation and wind-evaporation feedbacks. Received: 19 October 1999 / Accepted: 5 June 2000     

Long-term variability in the date of monsoon onset over western India

The date of onset of the southwest monsoon in western India is critical for farmers as it influences the timing of crop plantation and the duration of the summer rainy season. Identifying long-term variability in the date of monsoon onset is difficult, however, as onset dates derived from the reanalysis of instrumental rainfall data are only available for the region from 1879. This study uses documentary evidence and newly uncovered instrumental data to reconstruct annual monsoon onset dates for western India for the period 1781–1878, extending the existing record by 97 years. The mean date of monsoon onset over the Mumbai (Bombay) area during the reconstruction period was 10 June with a standard deviation of 6.9 days. This is similar to the mean and standard deviation of the date of monsoon onset derived from instrumental data for the twentieth century. The earliest identified onset date was 23 May (in 1802 and 1839) and the latest 22 June (in 1825). The longer-term perspective provided by this study suggests that the climatic regime that governs monsoon advance over western India did not change substantially from 1781 to 1955. Monsoon onset over Mumbai has occurred at a generally later date since this time. Our results indicate that this change is unprecedented during the last 230 years. Following a discussion of the results, the nature of the relationship between the date of monsoon onset and the El Niño-Southern Oscillation is discussed. This relationship is shown to have been stable since 1781.     

菲律宾以西海域的高温暖水与南海夏季风爆发

为了揭示高温暖水在中国南海（文中简称南海）夏季风爆发中所起的作用,依据欧洲中期天气预报中心发布的第5代全球大气海洋再分析资料,发现气候平均意义下印度洋—太平洋暖池中30℃以上高温暖水会在5月出现移位：5月上旬高温暖水出现在孟加拉湾中部,而到下旬消退并移位到南海南部。通过分析局地天气尺度的海洋-大气相互作用过程,揭示了上述高温暖水月内移位的物理机制：在孟加拉湾夏季风爆发后,逐渐增强的潜热释放和减少的短波辐射会导致孟加拉湾高温暖水的面积逐渐缩小;与此同时,在副热带高压影响下,南海菲律宾岛西南高温暖水出现,并因其面积逐渐增大,并与泰国湾的高温暖水共同构成了南海南部的高温暖水。研究发现南海季风爆发几乎都出现在上述高温暖水移位之后,因此孟加拉湾中部和南海南部海表温度的差由正转负可以作为南海季风爆发的先兆。

     

Intraseasonal SST-precipitation relationship and its spatial variability over the tropical summer monsoon region

The SST-precipitation relationship in the intraseasonal variability (ISV) over the Asian monsoon region is examined using recent high quality satellite data and simulations from a state of the art coupled model, the climate forecast system version 2 (CFSv2). CFSv2 demonstrates high skill in reproducing the spatial distribution of the observed climatological mean summer monsoon precipitation along with its interannual variability, a task which has been a conundrum for many recent climate coupled models. The model also exhibits reasonable skill in simulating coherent northward propagating monsoon intraseasonal anomalies including SST and precipitation, which are generally consistent with observed ISV characteristics. Results from the observations and the model establish the existence of spatial variability in the atmospheric convective response to SST anomalies, over the Asian monsoon domain on intraseasonal timescales. The response is fast over the Arabian Sea, where precipitation lags SST by ~5 days; whereas it is slow over the Bay of Bengal and South China Sea, with a lag of ~12 days. The intraseasonal SST anomalies result in a similar atmospheric response across the basins, which consists of a destabilization of the bottom of the atmospheric column, as observed from the equivalent potential temperature anomalies near the surface. However, the presence of a relatively strong surface convergence over the Arabian Sea, due to the presence of a strong zonal gradient in SST, which accelerates the upward motion of the moist air, results in a relatively faster response in terms of the local precipitation anomalies over the Arabian Sea than over the Bay of Bengal and South China Sea. With respect to the observations, the ocean–atmosphere coupling is well simulated in the model, though with an overestimation of the intraseasonal SST anomalies, leading to an exaggerated SST-precipitation relationship. A detailed examination points to a systematic bias in the thickness of the mixed layer of the ocean model, which needs to be rectified. A too shallow (deep) mixed layer enhances (suppress) the amplitude of the intraseasonal SST anomalies, thereby amplifying (lessening) the ISV and the active-break phases of the monsoon in the model.     

The Interannual variability of rainfall over homogeneous regions of Indian summer monsoon

Theoretical and Applied Climatology - The Indian subcontinent, due to its enormous variety of geographical features, is associated with inhomogeneity. Hence, in the present study, we have...     

Local onset and demise of the Indian summer monsoon

This paper introduces an objective definition of local onset and demise of the Indian summer monsoon (ISM) at the native grid of the Indian Meteorological Department’s rainfall analysis based on more than 100 years of rain gauge observations. The variability of the local onset/demise of the ISM is shown to be closely associated with the All India averaged rainfall onset/demise. This association is consistent with the corresponding evolution of the slow large-scale reversals of upper air and ocean variables that raise the hope of predictability of local onset and demise of the ISM. The local onset/demise of the ISM also show robust internannual variations associated with El Nino and the Southern Oscillation and Indian Ocean dipole mode. It is also shown that the early monsoon rains over northeast India has a predictive potential for the following seasonal anomalies of rainfall and seasonal length of the monsoon over rest of India.

     

Temperature variability over the Indian Ocean and its relationship with Indian summer monsoon rainfall

Summary The present study examines the long term trend in sea surface temperatures (SSTs) of the Arabian Sea, Bay of Bengal and Equatorial South India Ocean in the context of global warming for the period 1901–2002 and for a subset period 1971–2002. An attempt has also been made to identify the relationship between SST variations over three different ocean areas, and All-India and homogeneous region summer monsoon rainfall variability, including the role of El-Ni?o/Southern Oscillation (ENSO). Annual sea surface temperatures of the Arabian Sea, Bay of Bengal and Equatorial South India Ocean show a significant warming trend of 0.7 °C, 0.6 °C and 0.5 °C per hundred years, respectively, and a relatively accelerated warming of 0.16 °C, 0.14 °C and 0.14 °C per decade during the 1971–2002 period. There is a positive and statistically significant relationship between SSTs over the Arabian Sea from the preceding November to the current February, and Indian monsoon rainfall during the period 1901–2002. The correlation coefficient increases from October and peaks in December, decreasing from February to September. This significant relationship is also found in the recent period 1971–2002, whereas, during 1901–70, the relationship is not significant. On the seasonal scale, Arabian Sea winter SSTs are positively and significantly correlated with Indian monsoon rainfall, while spring SSTs have no significant positive relationship. Nino3 spring SSTs have a negative significant relationship with Indian monsoon rainfall and it is postulated that there is a combined effect of Nino3 and Arabian Sea SSTs on Indian monsoon. If the Nino3 SST effect is removed, the spring SSTs over the Arabian Sea also have a significant relationship with monsoon rainfall. Similarly, the Bay of Bengal and Equatorial South Indian Ocean spring SSTs are significantly and positively correlated with Indian monsoon rainfall after removing the Nino3 effect, and correlation values are more pronounced than for the Arabian Sea. Authors’ address: Dr. D. R. Kothawale, A. A. Munot, H. P. Borgaonkar, Climatology and Hydrometeorology divisions, Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology, Pune 411008, India.     

Interannual variability in the onset of the South China Sea summer monsoon from 1997 to 2014

本文基于南海地区850 hPa风场,降水以及海温定义了南海夏季风爆发指数,将南海季风爆发过程分为季节转换和季风爆发两个过程来进行研究。对18年的观测分析发现,南海季风爆发可归纳为三种情况:第一种是季风正常爆发,随着季节转换结束后,西南季风和降水在南海地区有明显增强;第二种是间接性爆发,在季节转换结束后,西南季风和降水的建立不是特别明显;第三种是推迟爆发,在季节转换结束后,南海地区没有建立西南季风也没有降水产生。进一步研究发现,西太副高异常西伸是导致南海季风延迟爆发的重要因素之一。此外,大尺度环流背景ENSO的影响也对南海季风爆发时间的早晚有重要影响,但并不是唯一决定性因素,印度洋和亚洲大地形的局地热力差异变化是影响季风爆发的另一重要因素。     

1979年季风试验期间东亚地区夏季风爆发时期的观测研究

本文分析1979年季风试验期间5—7月从春到夏的季节转变过程。在亚洲南部和西北太平洋地区大范围夏季风爆发前1—2候,南半球40°—160°E之间中纬度地区高空西风急流有一次增强过程。南半球对流层中部的经向环流发展,对流层低层的越赤道偏南气流加强,这时亚洲南部和西北太平洋热带地区低空西南风风速增大,并且范围向北扩展,南亚地区对流层上部热带东风加大,季风环流圈加强,我国东部雨带出现季节性北移。看来南半球大气环流的变化对东亚地区夏季风的建立及其向北推进起着触发作用。     

Interannual variability of summer monsoon precipitation over the Indochina Peninsula in association with ENSO

The interannual variability of summer monsoon precipitation (1979–2011) over the Indochina Peninsula (ICP) is characterized using the first empirical orthogonal function of 5-month total precipitation (May to September). The leading mode, with a monopole pattern, accounts for 30.6 % of the total variance. Dynamic composites and linear regression analysis indicate that the rainy season precipitation over the ICP is linked to El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) on interannual scales. The preceding winter [D(?1)JF(0)] negative sea surface temperature (SST) over the Niño-3.4 region is predominantly correlated with the rainy season precipitation over the ICP. Notably, the simultaneous correlation between remote SST anomalies in the Niño-3.4 region and the rainy season precipitation over the ICP is weak. The interannual variation of tropical cyclones modulated by ENSO is a significant contributing factor to the rainy season precipitation over the ICP. However, this relationship is not homogeneous over the ICP if ENSO is considered. Before removing the ENSO signal, enhanced precipitation is present over the northeastern part of the ICP and reduced precipitation appears in the western ICP, especially in coastal areas. In contrast, after removing ENSO, only a minor significant positive precipitation anomaly occurs over the northeastern part of the ICP and the negative anomaly appears particularly in the western and eastern coastal regions. The results obtained through the present study are useful for our understanding of circulation mechanisms and provide information for assessing the ability of regional and global climate models in simulating the climate of Southeast Asia.     

Reproducibility and predictability of the Asian summer monsoon in the ECHAM4-GCM

The mean evolution of the Asian summer monsoon and its interannual variability have been studied using three simulations (from 1961 to 1994) with the ECHAM4 General Circulation Model (GCM). The results have been compared with observational data and with two reanalyses data sets: the ECMWF Reanalysis (ERA) and the NCEP-NCAR Reanalysis. The South Asian summer monsoon (SASM) has been studied in terms of mean precipitation and circulation patterns. The model is successful in simulating the mean circulation of the SASM, though precipitation is generally weaker than observed in India, but closer to the observed values over the Indian Ocean and the Philippines. The ECHAM4 model also shows a capability to capture the interannual variability of the monsoon as it is measured by two different indices, the EIMR (Extended Indian Monsoon Rainfall) index and the DMI (Dynamical Monsoon Index). An analysis of NINO3 SSTA anomalies and of the Asian summer monsoon indices showed that the model is able to capture rather well the interdecadal variation of the correlation between them. A large ensemble of 25 members, forced with interannually varying SST from 1979 to 1993, has been used to test the potential predictability of the Indian summer monsoon and the dependence of the skill on the ensemble size. Results indicate that a minimum ensemble size of 16 members is needed to capture the variability of the monsoon indices.     

Pacific Ocean sea-surface temperature variability and predictability of rainfall in the early and late parts of the Indian summer monsoon season

For central India and its west coast, rainfall in the early (15 May–20 June) and late (15 September–20 October) monsoon season correlates with Pacific Ocean sea-surface temperature (SST) anomalies in the preceding month (April and August, respectively) sufficiently well, that those SST anomalies can be used to predict such rainfall. The patterns of SST anomalies that correlate best include the equatorial region near the dateline, and for the early monsoon season (especially since ~1980), a band of opposite correlation stretching from near the equator at 120°E to ~25°N at the dateline. Such correlations for both early and late monsoon rainfall and for both regions approach, if not exceed, 0.5. Although correlations between All India Summer Monsoon Rainfall and typical indices for the El Ni?o-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) commonly are stronger for the period before than since 1980, these correlations with early and late monsoon seasons suggest that ENSO continues to affect the monsoon in these seasons. We exploit these patterns to assess predictability, and we find that SSTs averages in specified regions of the Pacific Ocean in April (August) offer predictors that can forecast rainfall amounts in the early (late) monsoon season period with a ~25% improvement in skill relative to climatology. The same predictors offer somewhat less skill (~20% better than climatology) for predicting the number of days in these periods with rainfall greater than 2.5?mm. These results demonstrate that although the correlation of ENSO indices with All India Rainfall has decreased during the past few decades, the connections with ENSO in the early and late parts have not declined; that for the early monsoon season, in fact, has grown stronger in recent decades.     

Probing for suitable climatology to estimate the predictability of monsoon onset over Kerala (MOK), India

Inter-annual variability in the onset of monsoon over Kerala (MOK), India, is investigated using daily temperature; mean sea level pressure; winds at 850, 500 and 200 hPa pressure levels; outgoing longwave radiation (OLR); sea surface temperature (SST) and vertically integrated moisture content anomaly with 32 years (1981–2013) observation. The MOK is classified as early, delayed, or normal by considering the mean monsoon onset date over Kerala to be the 1st of June with a standard deviation of 8 days. The objective of the study is to identify the synoptic setup during MOK and comparison with climatology to estimate the predictability of the onset type (early, normal, or delayed) with 5, 10, and 15 days lead time. The study reveals that an enhanced convection observed over the Bay of Bengal during early MOK is found to shift over the Arabian Sea during delayed MOK. An intense high-pressure zone observed over the western south Indian Ocean during early MOK shifts to the east during delayed MOK. Higher tropospheric temperature (TT) over the western Equatorial Ocean during early MOK and lower TT over the Indian subcontinent intensify the land–ocean thermal contrast that leads to early MOK. The sea surface temperature (SST) over the Arabian Sea is observed to be warmer during delayed than early MOK. During early MOK, the source of 850 hPa southwesterly wind shifts to the west equatorial zone while a COL region has been found during delayed MOK at that level. The study further reveals that the wind speed anomaly at the 200-hPa pressure level coincides inversely with the anomaly of tropospheric temperature.