The impact of natural versus anthropogenic aerosols on atmospheric circulation in the Community Atmosphere Model

The equilibrium response of atmospheric circulation to the direct radiative effects of natural or anthropogenic aerosols is investigated using the Community Atmosphere Model (CAM3) coupled to two different ocean boundary conditions: prescribed climatological sea surface temperatures (SSTs) and a slab ocean model. Anthropogenic and natural aerosols significantly affect the circulation but in nearly opposite ways, because anthropogenic aerosols tend to have a net local warming effect and natural aerosols a net cooling. Aerosol forcings shift the Intertropical Convergence Zone and alter the strength of the Hadley circulation as found in previous studies, but also affect the Hadley cell width. These effects are due to meridional gradients in warming caused by heterogeneous net heating, and are stronger with interactive SST. Aerosols also drive model responses at high latitudes, including polar near-surface warming by anthropogenic aerosols in summer and an Arctic Oscillation (AO)-type responses in winter: anthropogenic aerosols strengthen wintertime zonal wind near 60°N, weaken it near 30°N, warm the troposphere, cool the stratosphere, and reduce Arctic surface pressure, while natural aerosols produce nearly opposite changes. These responses are shown to be due to modulation of stratospheric wave-driving consistent with meridional forcing gradients in midlatitudes. They are more pronounced when SST is fixed, apparently because the contrast in land-ocean heating drives a predominantly wavenumber-2 response in the northern hemisphere which is more efficient in reaching the stratosphere, showing that zonal heating variations also affect this particular response. The results suggest that recent shifts from reflecting to absorbing aerosol types probably contributed to the observed decadal variations in tropical width and AO, although studies with more realistic temporal variations in forcing would be needed to quantify this contribution.     

Mid-Holocene monsoons: a multi-model analysis of the inter-hemispheric differences in the responses to orbital forcing and ocean feedbacks

The response of monsoon circulation in the northern and southern hemisphere to 6?ka orbital forcing has been examined in 17 atmospheric general circulation models and 11 coupled ocean–atmosphere general circulation models. The atmospheric response to increased summer insolation at 6?ka in the northern subtropics strengthens the northern-hemisphere summer monsoons and leads to increased monsoonal precipitation in western North America, northern Africa and China; ocean feedbacks amplify this response and lead to further increase in monsoon precipitation in these three regions. The atmospheric response to reduced summer insolation at 6?ka in the southern subtropics weakens the southern-hemisphere summer monsoons and leads to decreased monsoonal precipitation in northern South America, southern Africa and northern Australia; ocean feedbacks weaken this response so that the decrease in rainfall is smaller than might otherwise be expected. The role of the ocean in monsoonal circulation in other regions is more complex. There is no discernable impact of orbital forcing in the monsoon region of North America in the atmosphere-only simulations but a strong increase in precipitation in the ocean–atmosphere simulations. In contrast, there is a strong atmospheric response to orbital forcing over northern India but ocean feedback reduces the strength of the change in the monsoon although it still remains stronger than today. Although there are differences in magnitude and exact location of regional precipitation changes from model to model, the same basic mechanisms are involved in the oceanic modulation of the response to orbital forcing and this gives rise to a robust ensemble response for each of the monsoon systems. Comparison of simulated and reconstructed changes in regional climate suggest that the coupled ocean–atmosphere simulations produce more realistic changes in the northern-hemisphere monsoons than atmosphere-only simulations, though they underestimate the observed changes in precipitation in all regions. Evaluation of the southern-hemisphere monsoons is limited by lack of quantitative reconstructions, but suggest that model skill in simulating these monsoons is limited.     

NUMERICAL STUDY OF THE SHORT-TERM CLIMATIC OSCILLATION FORCED BY EL NINO DURING NORTHERN WINTER

Using a nine-layer global spectral model, numerical schemes with two different SST distributions in January(control case and abnormal case) have been tested to study the climatic effect, propagation charateristics and the maintenance mechanism of the short-term climatic oscillation caused by El Nino during northern winter. The main results are as follows:(1) During northern winter, there exist two wave trains because of the influence of El Nino. One is similar to PNA pattern, and the other is similar to EUP pattern.(2) The PNA-like wave train caused by the anomalous SST forcing in central and eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean is due to the response of ultralong wave and long wave components of Rossby mode, and the EUP-like wave traincrossing Eurasia is mainly due to the wave component of Rossby mode.(3) During northern winter, the warm water region in central equatorial Pacific Ocean is the source of forced wave trains.(4) In northern winter,the energy source for maintaining the short-term climatic oscillation is from the interaction between eddies, and between eddy and zonal flow.     

利用折射指数推算大气纬圈平均风场方法

鉴于地转风、梯度风和平衡风各自计算风场的特点,该文利用COSMIC掩星折射指数资料,根据大气折射指数与大气密度、风场之间的关系,选用梯度风方程,建立了推算20~60 km中层大气纬圈平均风场的方法,分别与ECMWF提供的ERA-interim及NASA/GMAO提供的MERRA再分析风场资料对比验证。选用2007年1,4,7月和10月的COSMIC掩星折射指数数据,按照构建的方法计算了大气纬圈平均风场,并简单分析了大气纬圈平均纬向风随纬度、高度的变化特征及规律。计算风场与ECMWF及MERRA再分析风场资料变化规律基本一致,符合效果很好, 能够正确反映出纬向平均风场特性。1月及7月不同高度标准偏差、最大偏差随高度增加而增大,标准偏差最大约为6 m/s,最大偏差不超过11 m/s,沿纬度方向相关系数有减小的趋势,但不低于0.98,4月及10月偏差稍小,最大偏差不超过8 m/s。结果表明:利用COSMIC掩星折射指数资料通过梯度风方程计算风场,是获取中层大气20~60 km纬圈平均风场的一种有效方法。     

正压原始方程的一个数值试验

本文为应用正压原始方程作数值预报的初步试验。采用时间空间中央差分进行数值求解。通过试验确定了一种简单可用的边界条件及初始条件。 应用此方案对四个天气实例进行了24小时预报。计算结果尚好。对这四个实例中所包括的正压天气过程一般能较好的反映出来。     

经圈环流在大气对SSTA强迫响应中的作用

本文建立了一个包括经向Hadley环流作用的简单半谱模式并从1982年欧洲中心的客观分析资料中得到全球纬向平均场。经一系列数值实验发现，当SSTA处于赤道地区时，由它强迫产生的波动可以同时向南北半球传播。但若考虑经向Hadley环流（υ）的作用，波传播的空间位相和振幅就有比较明显的变化，并更接近于实际大气环流异常情况。当非绝热加热源位于偏离赤道的南北半球时，实验结果表明，如果不考虑Hadley环流，南北半球的非绝热加热很难在另一半球产生强的大气响应；考虑了Hadley环流后，则非绝热加热产生的波动可向另一半球传播。数值实验结果还表明，夏季当非绝热加热源的位置改变时，大气对其改变的响应不明显，而冬季大气对非绝热加热源的纬向位置的响应却非常敏感。     

稳定边界层中Ekman螺旋的异常及湍流二阶矩的特征

本文利用二阶矩湍流模式着重讨论了有地形条件下Ekman螺旋的特征，结果表明，在北半球一定的环境地转风场结构下，斜坡Ekman螺旋可以变为反时针旋转。另外，还研究了地形对稳定边界层二阶矩湍流量的结构和垂直分布的影响。     

The impact of natural and anthropogenic forcings on climate and hydrology since 1550

A climate simulation of an ocean/atmosphere general circulation model driven with natural forcings alone (constant “pre-industrial” land-cover and well-mixed greenhouse gases, changing orbital, solar and volcanic forcing) has been carried out from 1492 to 2000. Another simulation driven with natural and anthropogenic forcings (changes in greenhouse gases, ozone, the direct and first indirect effect of anthropogenic sulphate aerosol and land-cover) from 1750 to 2000 has also been carried out. These simulations suggest that since 1550, in the absence of anthropogenic forcings, climate would have warmed by about 0.1 K. Simulated response is not in equilibrium with the external forcings suggesting that both climate sensitivity and the rate at which the ocean takes up heat determine the magnitude of the response to forcings since 1550. In the simulation with natural forcings climate sensitivity is similar to other simulations of HadCM3 driven with CO₂ alone. Climate sensitivity increases when anthropogenic forcings are included. The natural forcing used in our experiment increases decadal–centennial time-scale and large spatial scale climate variability, relative to internal variability, as diagnosed from a control simulation. Mean conditions in the natural simulation are cooler than in our control simulation reflecting the reduction in forcing. However, over certain regions there is significant warming, relative to control, due to an increase in forest cover. Comparing the simulation driven by anthropogenic and natural forcings with the natural-only simulation suggests that anthropogenic forcings have had a significant impact on, particularly tropical, climate since the early nineteenth century. Thus the entire instrumental temperature record may be “contaminated” by anthropogenic influences. Both the hydrological cycle and cryosphere are also affected by anthropogenic forcings. Changes in tree-cover appear to be responsible for some of the local and hydrological changes as well as an increase in northern hemisphere spring snow cover.

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The last glacial cycle: transient simulations with an AOGCM

A number of transient climate runs simulating the last 120?kyr have been carried out using FAMOUS, a fast atmosphere–ocean general circulation model (AOGCM). This is the first time such experiments have been done with a full AOGCM, providing a three-dimensional simulation of both atmosphere and ocean over this period. Our simulation thus includes internally generated temporal variability over periods from days to millennia, and physical, detailed representations of important processes such as clouds and precipitation. Although the model is fast, computational restrictions mean that the rate of change of the forcings has been increased by a factor of 10, making each experiment 12?kyr long. Atmospheric greenhouse gases (GHGs), northern hemisphere ice sheets and variations in solar radiation arising from changes in the Earth’s orbit are treated as forcing factors, and are applied either separately or combined in different experiments. The long-term temperature changes on Antarctica match well with reconstructions derived from ice-core data, as does variability on timescales longer than 10 kyr. Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) cooling on Greenland is reasonably well simulated, although our simulations, which lack ice-sheet meltwater forcing, do not reproduce the abrupt, millennial scale climate shifts seen in northern hemisphere climate proxies or their slower southern hemisphere counterparts. The spatial pattern of sea surface cooling at the LGM matches proxy reconstructions reasonably well. There is significant anti-correlated variability in the strengths of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) and the Antarctic Circumpolar Current (ACC) on timescales greater than 10?kyr in our experiments. We find that GHG forcing weakens the AMOC and strengthens the ACC, whilst the presence of northern hemisphere ice-sheets strengthens the AMOC and weakens the ACC. The structure of the AMOC at the LGM is found to be sensitive to the details of the ice-sheet reconstruction used. The precessional component of the orbital forcing induces ~20?kyr oscillations in the AMOC and ACC, whose amplitude is mediated by changes in the eccentricity of the Earth’s orbit. These forcing influences combine, to first order, in a linear fashion to produce the mean climate and ocean variability seen in the run with all forcings.     

Evaluation of coupled ocean–atmosphere simulations of the mid-Holocene using palaeovegetation data from the northern hemisphere extratropics

We have used the BIOME4 biogeography–biochemistry model and comparison with palaeovegetation data to evaluate the response of six ocean–atmosphere general circulation models to mid-Holocene changes in orbital forcing in the mid- to high-latitudes of the northern hemisphere. All the models produce: (a) a northward shift of the northern limit of boreal forest, in response to simulated summer warming in high-latitudes. The northward shift is markedly asymmetric, with larger shifts in Eurasia than in North America; (b) an expansion of xerophytic vegetation in mid-continental North America and Eurasia, in response to increased temperatures during the growing season; (c) a northward expansion of temperate forests in eastern North America, in response to simulated winter warming. The northward shift of the northern limit of boreal forest and the northward expansion of temperate forests in North America are supported by palaeovegetation data. The expansion of xerophytic vegetation in mid-continental North America is consistent with palaeodata, although the extent may be over-estimated. The simulated expansion of xerophytic vegetation in Eurasia is not supported by the data. Analysis of an asynchronous coupling of one model to an equilibrium-vegetation model suggests vegetation feedback exacerbates this mid-continental drying and produces conditions more unlike the observations. Not all features of the simulations are robust: some models produce winter warming over Europe while others produce winter cooling. As a result, some models show a northward shift of temperate forests (consistent with, though less marked than, the expansion shown by data) and others produce a reduction in temperate forests. Elucidation of the cause of such differences is a focus of the current phase of the Palaeoclimate Modelling Intercomparison Project.     

The role of ENSO in global ocean temperature changes during 1955–2011 simulated with a 1D climate model

Global average ocean temperature variations to 2,000 m depth during 1955–2011 are simulated with a 40 layer 1D forcing-feedback-mixing model for three forcing cases. The first case uses standard anthropogenic and volcanic external radiative forcings. The second adds non-radiative internal forcing (ocean mixing changes initiated in the top 200 m) proportional to the Multivariate ENSO Index (MEI) to represent an internal mode of natural variability. The third case further adds ENSO-related radiative forcing proportional to MEI as a possible natural cloud forcing mechanism associated with atmospheric circulation changes. The model adjustable parameters are net radiative feedback, effective diffusivities, and internal radiative (e.g., cloud) and non-radiative (ocean mixing) forcing coefficients at adjustable time lags. Model output is compared to Levitus ocean temperature changes in 50 m layers during 1955–2011 to 700 m depth, and to lag regression coefficients between satellite radiative flux variations and sea surface temperature between 2000 and 2010. A net feedback parameter of 1.7Wm^?2 K^?1 with only anthropogenic and volcanic forcings increases to 2.8Wm^?2 K^?1 when all ENSO forcings (which are one-third radiative) are included, along with better agreement between model and observations. The results suggest ENSO can influence multi-decadal temperature trends, and that internal radiative forcing of the climate system affects the diagnosis of feedbacks. Also, the relatively small differences in model ocean warming associated with the three cases suggests that the observed levels of ocean warming since the 1950s is not a very strong constraint on our estimates of climate sensitivity.     

西北太平洋海域风浪、涌浪、混合浪波浪能资源特征

用ECMWF的ERA-40海浪再分析资料,应用波浪能流密度计算方法,对西北太平洋海域的风浪能、涌浪能、混合浪能展开研究。结果表明:(1)波浪能流密度呈现出显著季节性差异。混合浪能流密度表现为冬高夏低;春、夏、秋季的涌浪能流密度明显大于风浪能流密度,冬季相反;(2)混合浪能流密度的大值区主要分布于阿留申群岛附近海域,高值中心可达60 kW/m以上;近海的大值区主要分布于琉球群岛—巴士海峡—传统的南海大风区一带,年平均值在4 kW/m以上,南海北部可达12 kW/m以上;(3)黄渤海的涌浪和混合浪能流密度峰值出现在8—9月,波谷出现在6月。风浪能流密度峰值出现在11月—次年3月,波谷出现在6—8月,均呈现双峰型月变化特征。东海、南海北部、南海中南部海域能流密度的月变化特征相似,都为双峰型,12月—次年4月的能流密度整体较高,波峰出现在12月,波谷出现在5—7月;(4)2 kW/m以上混合浪能流密度出现的频率较高,近海低于大洋;(5)0.5 m以上有效波高出现的频率都非常高,中国近海稍低于大洋;(6)涌浪能流密度的稳定性明显好于风浪能流密度;大洋的能流密度稳定性明显强于近岸。1月份能流密度的稳定性最好,4月和7月次之,10月的稳定性最差。     

Kinetic energy analysis of the response of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation to CO2-forced climate change

Atmosphere?Cocean general circulation models (AOGCMs) predict a weakening of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) in response to anthropogenic forcing of climate, but there is a large model uncertainty in the magnitude of the predicted change. The weakening of the AMOC is generally understood to be the result of increased buoyancy input to the north Atlantic in a warmer climate, leading to reduced convection and deep water formation. Consistent with this idea, model analyses have shown empirical relationships between the AMOC and the meridional density gradient, but this link is not direct because the large-scale ocean circulation is essentially geostrophic, making currents and pressure gradients orthogonal. Analysis of the budget of kinetic energy (KE) instead of momentum has the advantage of excluding the dominant geostrophic balance. Diagnosis of the KE balance of the HadCM3 AOGCM and its low-resolution version FAMOUS shows that KE is supplied to the ocean by the wind and dissipated by viscous forces in the global mean of the steady-state control climate, and the circulation does work against the pressure-gradient force, mainly in the Southern Ocean. In the Atlantic Ocean, however, the pressure-gradient force does work on the circulation, especially in the high-latitude regions of deep water formation. During CO₂-forced climate change, we demonstrate a very good temporal correlation between the AMOC strength and the rate of KE generation by the pressure-gradient force in 50?C70°N of the Atlantic Ocean in each of nine contemporary AOGCMs, supporting a buoyancy-driven interpretation of AMOC changes. To account for this, we describe a conceptual model, which offers an explanation of why AOGCMs with stronger overturning in the control climate tend to have a larger weakening under CO₂ increase.     

近50年中国风速变化多气候模式模拟检验

近年来,随着气候模式研究的快速发展,全球气候模式在模拟20世纪气候和气候变化特征,尤其是在模拟温度、降水等要素特征和变化及其人类活动对这些要素的影响等方面取得了丰硕的成果.然而,全球气候模式对近地层风速的模拟情况如何,目前仍缺少分析和检验.本文利用中国区域近地层风速观测资料,检验评估了参与IPCC AR4"20世纪气候耦合模式模拟"(20C3M)的19个伞球气候模式和国家气候中心新一代伞球气候模式(BCC_CSM1.0.1)模拟的1956-1999年中国近地层(10m)风速及其变化的模拟能力.研究发现,20个伞球气候模式基本上都能模拟出中国多年年(或季)平均风速分布状况,但模式模拟的平均风速一般小于观测值,尤以观测风速较大的北部和西北部地区模拟值偏小显著.气候模式模拟秋冬季风速分布的能力强于模拟夏春季的能力.模式基本上能模拟出冬、春季平均风速大于夏、秋季平均风速,但是模拟不出春、冬、夏、秋季平均风速依次减小的季节变化特征.模式及模式集成难以模拟出观测到的近50年中国年(或季)平均风速明显减小的变化趋势,少数模式能模拟出年(或季)平均风速略呈减小的变化趋势,但与观测值比相差约一个量级.模式对北部和西南部地区平均风速的变化模拟效果较好,而模式难以模拟东南-南部地区风速变化特征.     

Impact of stratospheric variability on tropospheric climate change

An improved stratospheric representation has been included in simulations with the Hadley Centre HadGEM1 coupled ocean atmosphere model with natural and anthropogenic forcings for the period 1979–2003. An improved stratospheric ozone dataset is employed that includes natural variations in ozone as well as the usual anthropogenic trends. In addition, in a second set of simulations the quasi biennial oscillation (QBO) of stratospheric equatorial zonal wind is also imposed using a relaxation towards ERA-40 zonal wind values. The resulting impact on tropospheric variability and trends is described. We show that the modelled cooling rate at the tropopause is enhanced by the improved ozone dataset and this improvement is even more marked when the QBO is also included. The same applies to warming trends in the upper tropical troposphere which are slightly reduced. Our stratospheric improvements produce a significant increase of internal variability but no change in the positive trend of annual mean global mean near-surface temperature. Warming rates are increased significantly over a large portion of the Arctic Ocean. The improved stratospheric representation, especially the QBO relaxation, causes a substantial reduction in near-surface temperature and precipitation response to the El Chichón eruption, especially in the tropical region. The winter increase in the phase of the northern annular mode observed in the aftermath of the two major recent volcanic eruptions is partly captured, especially after the El Chichón eruption. The positive trend in the southern annular mode (SAM) is increased and becomes statistically significant which demonstrates that the observed increase in the SAM is largely subject to internal variability in the stratosphere. The possible inclusion in simulations for future assessments of full ozone chemistry and a gravity wave scheme to internally generate a QBO is discussed.     

Coupled atmosphere�Cmixed layer ocean response to ocean heat flux convergence along the Kuroshio Current Extension

The winter response of the coupled atmosphere?Cocean mixed layer system to anomalous geostrophic ocean heat flux convergence in the Kuroshio Extension is investigated by means of experiments with an atmospheric general circulation model coupled to an entraining ocean mixed layer model in the extra-tropics. The direct response consists of positive SST anomalies along the Kuroshio Extension and a baroclinic (low-level trough and upper-level ridge) circulation anomaly over the North Pacific. The low-level component of this atmospheric circulation response is weaker in the case without coupling to an extratropical ocean mixed layer, especially in late winter. The inclusion of an interactive mixed layer in the tropics modifies the direct coupled atmospheric response due to a northward displacement of the Pacific Inter-Tropical Convergence Zone which drives an equivalent barotropic anomalous ridge over the North Pacific. Although the tropically driven component of the North Pacific atmospheric circulation response is comparable to the direct response in terms of sea level pressure amplitude, it is less important in terms of wind stress curl amplitude due to the mitigating effect of the relatively broad spatial scale of the tropically forced atmospheric teleconnection.     

2018/2019年冬季浙江罕见持续阴雨天气的环流异常与海温强迫

利用NCEP/NCAR全球再分析资料、地面观测资料和自动站降水资料,分析了2018/2019年冬季浙江罕见连续阴雨寡照天气过程中冬季风环流和南支槽等环流异常,并从西风带波动、海温强迫等方面研究了局地环流异常的成因。结果表明:2018/2019年冬季连阴雨事件中雨日、日照破历史记录,雨量较常年同期明显偏多。主要的环流异常为西北太平洋异常反气旋（WNPAC）明显偏北,同时阿留申低压和西伯利亚高压亦偏北,东亚地区40°N以南有强的偏南风异常,冬季风偏弱;南支槽较常年偏强,保证了浙江上空有持续的水汽和扰动输送。对流层中层存在沿欧洲向东亚—西太平洋传播的波动能量,波能在东亚地区一直向南传播至20°N以南,可能导致WNPAC明显北抬和南支槽加强。ENSO是WNPAC的重要强迫源,ENSO暖位相使得海洋性大陆出现异常对流冷却,而浙江上空对流加强,ENSO对南支槽活动强度亦有明显的制约作用。中国近海海温偏高是WNPAC和阿留申低压明显偏北的重要影响因素。2018/2019年冬季局地环流异常可能由ENSO和中国近海海温协同强迫所致。     

Multiple sea-ice states and abrupt MOC transitions in a general circulation ocean model

Sea ice has been suggested, based on simple models, to play an important role in past glacial–interglacial oscillations via the so-called “sea-ice switch” mechanism. An important requirement for this mechanism is that multiple sea-ice extents exist under the same land ice configuration. This hypothesis of multiple sea-ice extents is tested with a state-of-the-art ocean general circulation model coupled to an atmospheric energy–moisture-balance model. The model includes a dynamic-thermodynamic sea-ice module, has a realistic ocean configuration and bathymetry, and is forced by annual mean forcing. Several runs with two different land ice distributions represent present-day and cold-climate conditions. In each case the ocean model is initiated with both ice-free and fully ice-covered states. We find that the present-day runs converge approximately to the same sea-ice state for the northern hemisphere while for the southern hemisphere a difference in sea-ice extent of about three degrees in latitude between the different runs is observed. The cold climate runs lead to meridional sea-ice extents that are different by up to four degrees in latitude in both hemispheres. While approaching the final states, the model exhibits abrupt transitions from extended sea-ice states and weak meridional overturning circulation, to less extended sea ice and stronger meridional overturning circulation, and vice versa. These transitions are linked to temperature changes in the North Atlantic high-latitude deep water. Such abrupt changes may be associated with Dansgaard–Oeschger events, as proposed by previous studies. Although multiple sea ice states have been observed, the difference between these states is not large enough to provide a strong support for the sea-ice-switch mechanism.     

Climate change signal and uncertainty in projections of ocean wave heights

In this study, projections of seasonal means and extremes of ocean wave heights were made using projections of sea level pressure fields conducted with three global climate models for three forcing-scenarios. For each forcing-scenario, the three climate models’ projections were combined to estimate the multi-model mean projection of climate change. The relative importance of the variability in the projected wave heights that is due to the forcing prescribed in a forcing-scenario was assessed on the basis of ensemble simulations conducted with the Canadian coupled climate model CGCM2. The uncertainties in the projections of wave heights that are due to differences among the climate models and/or among the forcing-scenarios were characterized. The results show that the multi-model mean projection of climate change has patterns similar to those derived from using the CGCM2 projections alone, but the magnitudes of changes are generally smaller in the boreal oceans but larger in the region nearby the Antarctic coastal zone. The forcing-induced variance (as simulated by CGCM2) was identified to be of substantial magnitude in some areas in all seasons. The uncertainty due to differences among the forcing-scenarios is much smaller than that due to differences among the climate models, although it was identified to be statistically significant in most areas of the oceans (this indicates that different forcing conditions do make notable differences in the wave height climate change projection). The sum of the model and forcing-scenario uncertainties is smaller in the JFM and AMJ seasons than in other seasons, and it is generally small in the mid-high latitudes and large in the tropics. In particular, some areas in the northern oceans were projected to have large changes by all the three climate models.     

Multi-model projections of twenty-first century North Pacific winter wave climate under the IPCC A2 scenario

A dynamical wave model implemented over the North Pacific Ocean was forced with winds from three coupled global climate models (CGCMs) run under a medium-to-high scenario for greenhouse gas emissions through the twenty-first century. The results are analyzed with respect to changes in upper quantiles of significant wave height (90th and 99th percentile H_S) during boreal winter. The three CGCMs produce surprisingly similar patterns of change in winter wave climate during the century, with waves becoming 10–15 % smaller over the lower mid-latitudes of the North Pacific, particularly in the central and western ocean. These decreases are closely associated with decreasing windspeeds along the southern flank of the main core of the westerlies. At higher latitudes, 99th percentile wave heights generally increase, though the patterns of change are less uniform than at lower latitudes. The increased wave heights at high latitudes appear to be due a variety of wind-related factors including both increased windspeeds and changes in the structure of the wind field, these varying from model to model. For one of the CGCMs, a commonly used statistical approach for estimating seasonal quantiles of H_S on the basis of seasonal mean sea level pressure (SLP) is used to develop a regression model from 60 years of twentieth century data as a training set, and then applied using twenty-first century SLP data. The statistical model reproduces the general pattern of decreasing twenty-first century wave heights south of ~40 N, but underestimates the magnitude of the changes by ~50–70 %, reflecting relatively weak coupling between sea level pressure and wave heights in the CGCM data and loss of variability in the statistically projected wave heights.