印度洋dipole事件的年际变化与ENSO事件的联系

通过对nino3指数和DMI序列的分析,发现两种物理现象都有4 a左右的主要周期,而且印度洋偶极子事件还存在有2 a左右的振荡周期,而厄尔尼诺事件在2 a时间尺度上周期性不明显;对nino3指数和DMI进行年际时间尺度滤波,结果表明,在年际时间尺度上,两者的相关性比未滤波时有了一定的提高;对年际滤波之后的偶极子事件和ELNINO事件的相关分析可以发现,ELNINO对于印度洋偶极子事件的影响要大于IOD对于太平洋ENSO事件,显示了两者物理现象的影响不对称。     

夏冬季热带太平洋、印度洋海表温度年际异常的年代际变化

用Nino3指数、印度洋单极指数、偶极子指数描述热带太平洋、印度洋海表温度(SST)的年际异常，季节分析表明：冬季Nino3区与热带印度洋海表温度距平(SSTA)相互关系表现为单极，且1976年以后两者的相互关系减弱，其可能原因：一是冬季是ENSO(厄尔尼诺)事件的盛期；二是冬季西太平洋暖水区东移，造成两洋的垂直纬向环流耦合减弱。夏季两者相互关系表现为偶极，1976年以后两者的相互关系加强，其可能原因，一是夏季是偶极子盛期，ENSO事件的发展期；二是夏季西太平洋暖水区虽然东移，但暖水区位置偏北，且东南印度洋的上升支强度增大，造成两洋的．纬向环流耦合更强烈。     

夏冬季热带太平洋、印度洋海表温度年际异常的年代际变化

用Nino 3指数、印度洋单极指数、偶极子指数描述热带太平洋、印度洋海表温度 (SST)的年际异常 ,季节分析表明 :冬季Nino3区与热带印度洋海表温度距平 (SSTA)相互关系表现为单极 ,且 1976年以后两者的相互关系减弱 ,其可能原因 :一是冬季是ENSO(厄尔尼诺 )事件的盛期 ;二是冬季西太平洋暖水区东移 ,造成两洋的垂直纬向环流耦合减弱。夏季两者相互关系表现为偶极 ,1976年以后两者的相互关系加强 ,其可能原因 ,一是夏季是偶极子盛期 ,ENSO事件的发展期 ;二是夏季西太平洋暖水区虽然东移 ,但暖水区位置偏北 ,且东南印度洋的上升支强度增大 ,造成两洋的纬向环流耦合更强烈     

甘肃省冬季月平均气温年际变化的旋转主成分分析

利用甘肃省５８个台站１９６１年１２月～１９９１年２月的平均气温资料，采用旋转主分量分析方法，研究了甘肃省冬季月平均气温的时空特征。结果表明，３０年来，全省有３个主要气温变化异常区，表现出不同的变化趋势     

基于Google Earth Engine的红树林年际变化监测研究

遥感技术已广泛应用于红树林资源调查与动态监测中,但仍然存在遥感数据获取困难、数据预处理工作量大、监测时间长而周期过大等问题,影响了学者对红树林演变过程的精细刻画与理解。本文基于Google Earth Engine（GEE）云遥感数据处理平台,选取Landsat系列卫星数据,生成长时间序列年际极少云影像集（云量少于5%）,利用3个红外波段反射率（NIR、SWIR1、SWIR2）和3个特征指数（NDVI、NDWI、NDMI）建立阈值规则集,实现对实验区越南玉显县红树林、红树林-虾塘、不透水面-裸地、水体4种目标地物的专家知识决策树分类和土地覆盖的制图,并基于分类结果监测该区域1993-2017年的红树林年际动态变化。结果表明：GEE平台可满足多云多雨地区红树林的长时间序列年际变化监测需求;本文阈值分类方法可以有效提取红树林及红树林-虾塘,实验区有86%年份的影像分类精度达到80%以上;年际变化监测可精细刻画实验区红树林面积先增后减再增的变化过程,也能准确反映红树林与红树林-虾塘养殖系统面积之间的负相关关系。红树林年际动态监测结果可以降低红树林演变分析的不确定性,并能更精细地量化红树林与其他土地覆盖类型的转化过程,从而评估经济发展、政策等因素对红树林演变的影响。     

全球海洋初级生产力时空异常变化对ENSO事件的响应

海洋初级生产力在海洋环境要素的驱动下,在不同海域呈现出不同的时空变化特征,这种时空演变特征在不同的ENSO事件类型下差异更为显著。本文基于1998年1月至2017年12月全球海洋初级生产力的卫星遥感数据集,通过改进海洋时空双约束聚类挖掘方法,挖掘了近20年海洋初级生产力的时空聚簇模式,并从时空分布和空间移动2个方面对比分析了海洋初级生产力时空演变簇与ENSO（El Niño-Southern Oscillation）事件之间的关系。结果表明：① 在EP（Eastern-Pacific）型El Niño事件期间,海洋初级生产力异常低值时空簇主要分布在赤道太平洋东部或中东部海域,异常高值时空簇主要分布在西太平洋和南太平洋中部海域;在CP（Central-Pacific）型El Niño事件期间,异常低值时空簇分布在太平洋中部,而异常高值时空簇分布在南太平洋与西太平洋海域;② 在EP型La Niña事件期间,赤道太平洋中部及东部、赤道大西洋与印度洋海域出现异常高值时空簇,南太平洋中东部海域出现异常低值时空簇;在CP型La Niña事件期间,赤道太平洋中部出现异常高值时空簇;南太平洋中西部海域出现异常低值时空簇;③ 发生在赤道太平洋的海洋初级生产力时空演变簇,在EP型ENSO事件期间具有东移特征,而在CP型ENSO事件期间,时空演变簇在赤道太平洋中部海域产生并消亡;④ ENSO事件中海洋初级生产力时空演变簇面积与MEI具有较强相关性。     

一类ENSO事件与四川地区粮食产量的相关分析

本文对1949年以来出现的10次ENSO事件进行了分析,得出如下结果:开始於东太平洋增暖和中大平洋增暖的两类ENSO现象分别对应四川地区粮食产量的减产和增产。此结果对四川地区粮食生产政策的制定及产量的预测研究均有较重要的参考价值。     

Relationships of interannual variability between the equatorial pacific and tropical Indian Ocean in 17 CMIP5 models

Seventeen coupled general circulation models from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) are employed to assess the relationships of interannual variations of sea surface temperature (SST) between the tropical Pacific (TP) and tropical Indian Ocean (TIO). The eastern/central equatorial Pacific features the strongest SST interannual variability in the models except for the model CSIRO-Mk3-6-0, and the simulated maximum and minimum are produced by models GFDL-ESM2M and GISS-E2-H respectively. However, It remains a challenge for these models to simulate the correct climate mean SST with the warm pool-cold tongue structure in the equatorial Pacific. Almost all models reproduce El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), Indian Ocean Dipole mode (IOD) and Indian Ocean Basin-wide mode (IOB) together with their seasonal phase lock features being simulated; but the relationship between the ENSO and IOD is different for different models. Consistent with the observation, an Indian Ocean basin-wide warming (cooling) takes place over the tropical Indian Ocean in the spring following an El Niño (La Niña) in almost all the models. In some models (e.g., GFDL-ESM2G and MIROC5), positive ENSO and IOB events are stronger than the negative events as shown in the observation. However, this asymmetry is reversed in some other models (e.g., HadGEM2-CC and HadGEM2-ES).     

夏季黄海冷水团的多年际变化及原因浅析

基于ROMS(the Regional Ocean Model System)模式,以等温线范围变化作为黄海冷水团范围变化的示性指标,采用谱分析及相关分析的方法,分析夏季黄海冷水团范围变化。结果表明:黄海冷水团范围的变化存在明显的年变化特征,与纬向风速和经向风速相关,风速大则范围就大;黄海冷水团的范围还存在着5年的周期变化特征,其与ENSO现象相关;厄尔尼诺年时,滞后17个月的黄海冷水团的分布范围一般会较小;而拉尼娜年时,滞后17个月的黄海冷水团的分布范围会比较大。     

联合GRACE和气象水文数据研究2010～2016年亚马孙平原水储量异常变化与极端气候和ENSO的关系

利用GRACE时变重力场模型反演2009-07～2017-06期间亚马孙平原的水储量变化,在移除趋势和季节性周期信号后,计算得到其与ENSO指数之间具有较强的相关关系和一定的时延性,并从季节层面进行分析得到ENSO对亚马孙平原旱、雨两季的不同影响,表现为旱季受到ENSO显著影响而雨季受到的影响则较小。最后,结合水文数据分析指出,ENSO会通过影响降雨量进而影响相应区域的水储量变化,且该现象在流域内两次极端旱灾中有较为突出的表现。     

ENSO cycle and climate anomaly in China

The inter-annual variability of the tropical Pacific Subsurface Ocean Temperature Anomaly (SOTA) and the associated anomalous atmospheric circulation over the Asian North Pacific during the El Ni o-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) were investigated using National Centers for Environmental Prediction/ National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCEP/NCAR) atmospheric reanalysis data and simple ocean data simulation (SODA). The relationship between the ENSO and the climate of China was revealed. The main results indicated the following: 1) there are two ENSO modes acting on the subsurface tropical Pacific. The first mode is related to the mature phase of ENSO, which mainly appears during winter. The second mode is associated with a transition stage of the ENSO developing or decaying, which mainly occurs during summer; 2) during the mature phase of El Ni o, the meridionality of the atmosphere in the mid-high latitude increases, the Aleutian low and high pressure ridge over Lake Baikal strengthens, northerly winds prevail in northern China, and precipitation in northern China decreases significantly. The ridge of the Ural High strengthens during the decaying phase of El Ni o, as atmospheric circulation is sustained during winter, and the northerly wind anomaly appears in northern China during summer. Due to the ascending branch of the Walker circulation over the western Pacific, the western Pacific Subtropical High becomes weaker, and south-southeasterly winds prevail over southern China. As a result, less rainfall occurs over northern China and more rainfall over the Changjiang River basin and the southwestern and eastern region of Inner Mongolia. The flood disaster that occurred south of Changjiang River can be attributed to this. The La Ni a event causes an opposite, but weaker effect; 3) the ENSO cycle can influence climate anomalies within China via zonal and meridional heat transport. This is known as the "atmospheric-bridge", where the energy anomaly within the tropical Pacific transfers to the mid-high latitude in the northern Pacific through Hadley cells and Rossby waves, and to the western Pacific-eastern Indian Ocean through Walker circulation. This research also discusses the special air-sea boundary processes during the ENSO events in the tropical Pacific, and indicates that the influence of the subsurface water of the tropical Pacific on the atmospheric circulation may be realized through the sea surface temperature anomalies of the mixed water, which contact the atmosphere and transfer the anomalous heat and moisture to the atmosphere directly. Moreover, the reason for the heavy flood within the Changjiang River during the summer of 1998 is reviewed in this paper.     

Interannual variability of the southern Yellow Sea Cold Water Mass

Temperature data collected in the sections of 34°N, 35°N and 36°N in August from 1975 through 2003 were analyzed using Empirical Orthogonal Function (EOF) to investigate interannual variability of the southern Yellow Sea Cold Water Mass (YSCWM). The first mode (EOF1) reveals variations of basin-wide thermocline depth, which is mainly caused by surface heating. The second mode (EOF2) presents fluctuations of vertical circulation, resulting mainly from interannual variability of cold front intensity. In addition, it is found that the upward extent of upwelling in the cold front is basically determined by wind stress curl and the zonal position of the warm water center in the southern Yellow Sea is correlated with spatial difference of net heat flux.     

Interannual variability of SST,SLA and wind waves in the Hawaii area and their responses to ENSO

Time series of sea surface temperature (SST),wind speed and significant wave height (SWH) from meteorologicalbuoys of the National Data Buoy Center (NDBC) are useful for studying the interannual variability and trend of these quantities at the buoy areas.The measurements from 4 buoys (B51001,B51002,B51003 and B51004) in the Hawaii area are used to study theresponses of the quantities to EI Nino and Southern Oscillation (ENSO).Long-term averages of these data reflect precise seasonaland climatological characteristics of SST,wind speed and SWH around the Hawaii area.Buoy observations from B51001 suggest asignificant warming trend which is,however,not very clear from the other three buoys.Compared with the variability of SST andSWH,the wind speeds from the buoy observations show an increasing trend.The impacts of El Nifio on SST and wind waves arealso shown.Sea level data observed by altimeter during October 1992 to September 2006 are analyzed to investigate the variabilityof sea level in the Hawaii area.The results also show an increasing trend in sea level anomaly (SLA).The low-passed SLA in theHawaii area is consistent with the inverse phase of the low-passed Sol (Southern Oscillation Index).Compared with the low-passedSOl and PDO (Pacific Decadal Oscillation),the low-passed PNA (Pacific-North America Index) has a better correlation with thelow-passed SLA in the Hawaii area.     

Interannual variations of surface winds over China marginal seas

In a study of surface monsoon winds over the China marginal seas, Sun et al. (2012) use singular value decomposition method to identify regional dominant modes and analyze their interdecadal variability. This paper continues to evaluate the interannual variability of each dominant mode and its relation to various atmospheric, oceanic and land factors. The findings include: 1) The intensity of the winter monsoon over the East China Sea is highly correlated with the Siberian High intensity and anti-correlated with the latitudinal position of the Aleutian Low as well as the rainfall in eastern China, Korean Peninsula and Japan; 2) The western Pacific subtropical high is significantly correlated with the summer monsoon intensity over the East China Sea and anti-correlated with the summer monsoon over the South China Sea; 3) The winter monsoon in a broad zonal belt through the Luzon Strait is dominated by the ENSO signal, strengthening in the La Ni a phase and weakening in the El Ni o phase. This inverse relation exhibits interdecadal shift with a period of weak correlation in the 1980s; 4) Analysis of tidal records validates the interdecadal weakening of the East Asian summer monsoon and reveals an atmospheric bridge that conveys the ENSO signal into the South China Sea via the winter monsoon.     

Variations of SST and thermocline depth in the tropical Indian Ocean during Indian Ocean Dipole events

Interannual variations in the surface and subsurface tropical Indian Ocean were studied using HadISST and SODA datasets.Wind and heat flux datasets were used to discuss the mechanisms for these variations.Our results indicate that the surface and subsurface variations of the tropical Indian Ocean during Indian Ocean Dipole(IOD)events are significantly different.A prominent characteristic of the eastern pole is the SSTA rebound after a cooling process,which does not take place at the subsurface layer.In the western pole,the surface anomalies last longer than the subsurface anomalies.The subsurface anomalies are strongly correlated with ENSO,while the relationship between the surface anomalies and ENSO is much weaker.And the subsurface anomalies of the two poles are negatively correlated while they are positively correlated at the surface layer.The wind and surface heat flux analysis suggests that the thermocline depth variations are mainly determined by wind stress fields,while the heat flux effect is important on SST.     

Indian Ocean Dipole response to global warming: A multi-member study with CCSM4

Based on a coupled ocean-atmosphere model, the response of the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) mode to global warming is investigated with a six member ensemble of simulations for the period 1850–2100. The model can simulate the IOD features realistically, including the east-west dipole pattern and the phase locking in boreal autumn. The ensemble analysis suppresses internal variability and isolates the radiative forced response. In response to increasing greenhouse gases, a weakening of the Walker circulation leads to the easterly wind anomalies in the equatorial Indian Ocean and the shoaling thermocline in the eastern equatorial Indian Ocean (EEIO), and sea surface temperature and precipitation changes show an IOD-like pattern in the equatorial Indian Ocean. Although the thermocline feedback intensifies with shoaling, the interannual variability of the IOD mode surprisingly weakens under global warming. The zonal wind feedback of IOD is found to weaken as well, due to decreased precipitation in the EEIO. Therefore, the atmospheric feedback decreases much more than the oceanic feedback increases, causing the decreased IOD variance in this model.     

The role of barrier layer in southeastern Arabian Sea during the development of positive Indian Ocean Dipole events

Using data from Argo and simple ocean data assimilation (SODA), the role of the barrier layer (BL) in the southeastern Arabian Sea (SEAS: 60°E–75°E, 0°–10°N) is investigated during the development of positive Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) events from 1960 to 2008. It is found that warmer sea surface temperature (SST) in the northern Indian Ocean appears in June in the SEAS. This warm SST accompanying anomalous southeastern wind persists for six months and a thicker BL and a corresponding thinner mixed layer in the SEAS contribute to the SST warming during the IOD formation period. The excessive precipitation during this period helps to form a thicker BL and a thinner mixed layer, resulting in a higher SST in the SEAS. Warm SST in the SEAS and cold SST to the southeast of the SEAS intensify the southeasterly anomaly in the tropical Indian Ocean, which transports more moisture to the SEAS, and then induces more precipitation there. The ocean-atmosphere interaction process among wind, precipitation, BL and SST is very important for the anomalous warming in the SEAS during the development of positive IOD events.     

The distribution and variability of simulated chlorophyll concentration over the tropical Indian Ocean from five CMIP5 models

Performances of 5 models from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) in simulating the chlorophyll concentration over the tropical Indian Ocean are evaluated. Results show that these models are able to capture the dominant spatial distribution of observed chlorophyll concentration and reproduce the maximum chlorophyll concentration over the western part of the Arabian Sea, around the tip of the Indian subcontinent, and in the southeast tropical Indian Ocean. The seasonal evolution of chlorophyll concentration over these regions is also reproduced with significant amplitude diversity among models. All of 5 models is able to simulate the interannual variability of chlorophyll concentration. The maximum interannual variation occurs at the same regions where the maximum climatological chlorophyll concentration is located. Further analysis also reveals that the Indian Ocean Dipole events have great impact on chlorophyll concentration in the tropical Indian Ocean. In the general successful simulation of chlorophyll concentration, most of the CMIP5 models present higher than normal chlorophyll concentration in the eastern equatorial Indian Ocean.     

Interannual variability of transport and bifurcation of the North Equatorial Current in the tropical North Pacific Ocean

The relationship of the interannual variability of the transport and bifurcation latitude of the North Equatorial Current (NEC) to the El Ni o-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is investigated. This is done through composite analysis of sea surface height (SSH) observed by satellite altimeter during October 1992-July 2009, and correspondingly derived sea surface geostrophic currents. During El Nio/La Ni a years, the SSH in the tropical North Pacific Ocean falls/rises, with maximum changes in the region 0-15°N, 130°E-160°E. The decrease/increase in SSH induces a cyclonic/anticyclonic anomaly in the western tropical gyre. The cyclonic/anticyclonic anomaly in the gyre results in an increase/decrease of NEC transport, and a northward/southward shift of the NEC bifurcation latitude near the Philippine coast. The variations are mainly in response to anomalous wind forcing in the west-central tropical North Pacific Ocean, related to ENSO events.