Reducing model complexity for explanation and prediction

Numerical models can be useful for explaining poorly understood phenomena or for reliable quantitative predictions. When modeling a multi-scale system, a ‘top-down’ approach—basing models on emergent variables and interactions, rather than explicitly on the much faster and smaller scale processes that give rise to them—facilitates both goals. Parameterizations representing emergent interactions range from highly simplified and abstracted to more quantitatively accurate. Empirically based large-scale parameterizations lead more reliably to accurate large-scale behavior than do parameterizations of much smaller scale processes. Conversely, purposefully simplified representations of model interactions can enhance a model's utility for explanation, clarifying the key feedbacks leading to an enigmatic behavior. For such potential insights to be relevant, the interactions in the model need to correspond to those in the ‘real’ system in some straightforward way. Such a correspondence usually holds for models constructed for predictive purposes, although this is not a requirement. The goals motivating a modeling endeavor help determine the most appropriate modeling strategies, as well as the most appropriate criteria for judging model usefulness.     

Transforming New Orleans and Its Environs: Centuries of Change

Abstract

Geography is again becoming an integral part of the premier natural-science agency of the federal government. Geographic research emphasizes the surface of the earth, a portion of the earth system that the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) defines as the “critical zone.” Although geography was part of the USGS from the creation of the agency, in recent years geography in the agency has largely been limited to topographic mapping. Recently, the USGS and an advisory committee of the National Research Council (NRC) reviewed the role of geography at the Survey. The committee's report, along with ongoing decision-making in the federal government, is likely to reshape geography in the USGS. The newly defined USGS has a regional structure and four disciplines: geology, hydrology, biology, and geography. The NRC report emphasizes the need for the creation of a spatial database called the National Map to replace the existing series of paper topographic maps. The report also outlines the need for geographic research in geographic information science (GIScience), nature-society connections, and bridging of science to decision-making. The NRC report has been briefed throughout the USGS, in the federal executive branch, and in Congress. The changing role for geography in the USGS requires change in the agency culture, revised budgetary decisions, and the establishment of a long-term core agenda for research. Academic geographers will need to prepare a new generation of geographers for participation in the USGS and similar agencies.     

A Review of “Rebuilding Urban Places After Disaster: Lessons from Hurricane Katrina”

Women's earnings, employment, and commutes have generally lagged men's. Geographers emphasize the effects of women's gender roles on their spatial entrapment as limiting their job opportunities and labor market status. This research methodologically advances spatial entrapment research by utilizing a national model of commuting with spatial fixed effects to make more accurate predictions and generalizations. Second, this research found that a control group of same-sex partners allows for more direct isolation and measurement of the gender role effect on women's commutes. This research concluded that women's gender roles are negatively affecting their commuting range and, therefore, their labor market status.     

WHAT'S IN A NAME? LINGUISTICS,GEOGRAPHY, AND TOPONYMS*

In differing ways, linguistics and geography each observes that a name's significance is connected to a society. According to lexical theory, a word is arbitrary: Its sound and meaning have no intrinsic link; its function is grammatical. Names are, however, special words. We bestow names based on how they sound or on what they may already have come to represent; names are not arbitrary. In turn, toponyms are special names, and as example we discuss a specific one, “New Orleans.” Far from an arbitrary pairing of form and meaning, this toponym reveals that names reflect the experience of the people who use them.     

Post‐Katrina Population Loss and Uneven Recovery in New Orleans, 2000–2010

New Orleans has suffered from a significant population decline during 2000–2010, mainly due to Hurricane Katrina in 2005. Regression models are used here to explain the spatial variability of population change in New Orleans by variables such as proximity (distance or travel time) to the central business district (CBD), a natural environment variable “elevation”, and two composite socio‐demographic indices derived from variables in the census. The research reveals a U‐shaped population‐change profile with distance or travel time from the CBD, population loss bottomed at 4–5 kilometers (10–15 minutes) from the CBD and recovered towards both the CBD and suburbs. This suggests possible converging forces of suburbanization (that is, a nationwide trend that began long before the hurricane) and the CBD's anchoring role in the post‐Katrina recovery. Greater population loss was also observed in the socioeconomically disadvantaged and lower‐elevated areas, but neighborhoods of Hispanic concentration experienced less population loss.     

A new tool for modeling dune field evolution based on an accessible, GUI version of the Werner dune model

Research into aeolian dune form and dynamics has benefited from simple and abstract cellular automata computer models. Many of these models are based upon a seminal framework proposed by Werner (1995). Unfortunately, most versions of this model are not publicly available or are not provided in a format that promotes widespread use. In our view, this hinders progress in linking model simulations to empirical data (and vice versa). To this end, we introduce an accessible, graphical user interface (GUI) version of the Werner model. The novelty of this contribution is that it provides a simple interface and detailed instructions that encourage widespread use and extension of the Werner dune model for research and training purposes. By lowering barriers for researchers to develop and test hypotheses about aeolian dune and dune field patterns, this release addresses recent calls to improve access to earth surface models.     

A Spatial Variant of the Basic Reproduction Number for the New Orleans Yellow Fever Epidemic of 1878

A spatial variant of the basic reproduction number (R₀), here defined as the number of subsequent deaths attributed to an initial mortality, can be used to identify geographic variation within an epidemic. A spatial R₀ was calculated at the neighborhood level, here defined by a 50‐m buffer surrounding an index case, for mortality data from the 1878 yellow fever epidemic of New Orleans. The highest number of secondary mortalities linked to a neighborhood index case was twelve, with a further eighty‐seven extrapolated morbidity cases. Results also highlight the importance of multideath residences and cultural contacts in neighborhood‐level disease spread.     

Shrinking New Orleans: Post-Katrina Population Adjustments

The flooding caused by hurricane Katrina in 2005 acted as a catalyst for an abrupt change of the demographic landscape of the New Orleans metropolitan area. New Orleans city proper has been a shrinking city for the last half century, but its population loss was balanced by expanding suburbs until 2005. Based on a comparison of the newly released 2010 census data with the 2000 data, this paper discusses the major population adjustments that have resulted from the disaster. Hurricane Katrina has caused the entire metropolitan area to shrink much faster than previous declines. Five years after the storm, New Orleans displays some limited signs of resilience, although the storm seems to have accelerated its population decline. Furthermore, a close examination of the available data shows us that Katrina has provoked a major change in the city's ethnic landscape.     

“They want to live in the Tremé, but they want it for their ways of living”: gentrification and neighborhood practice in Tremé, New Orleans

In this study, I deploy an ethnographic approach to analyze the detrimental effects of gentrification on longstanding residents in New Orleans’ Tremé neighborhood. I focus on conflicts between long-established residents and gentrifiers over the use of neighborhood space on a day-to-day basis as a means for examining the consequent changes in neighborhood life. As their neighborhood gentrifies, long-term residents of Tremé must contend with greater policing, the erosion of place-based knowledge, practices, and cultural traditions, the loss of social networks, and the closure of vital neighborhood institutions. These changes in neighborhood life provide a starting point from which to begin to understand the broader effects (beyond displacement) that longstanding residents experience as a result of gentrification.     

新奥尔良飓风灾难与华南沿海台风暴潮

分析了新奥尔良的地理环境,概述了卡特里娜飓风与丽塔飓风及其对新奥尔良的影响.简述了华南沿海的台风暴潮灾害情况,提出了新奥尔良飓风灾难对华南沿海的几点警示:(1)加强提高防御台风暴潮灾害的认识;(2)保护好沿海抗御台风暴潮的"前沿阵地;(3)加强和完善防台风暴潮应急预案;(4)应对台风暴潮要充分考虑全球环境变化.     

Katrina and Migration: Evacuation and Return by African Americans and Vietnamese Americans in an Eastern New Orleans Suburb

Hurricane Katrina constitutes the most costly natural as well as technology-induced disaster, in terms of both human suffering and financial loss in the history of the United States. Even years later, it continues to profoundly impact the livelihoods and the mental and physical health of those who have experienced evacuation and return and those who have begun lives anew elsewhere. Our study focuses on these geographical processes associated with the Katrina disaster experiences of African Americans and Vietnamese Americans comprising an overwhelming majority (93.4 percent) of residents in a racially mixed pre-Katrina eastern New Orleans neighborhood. We examine the spatial morphology of routes, volumes, and frequencies of evacuees; their return rates and experiences; and rationales and motivations to return or stay. The conceptual framework is based on the disaster migration, place attachment, and social network literature. Both quantitative and qualitative evidence indicates that the evacuation and return experiences of each minority group substantially differed, especially among African American women, and this was strongly influenced by existing social networks.     

Geomorphology and ecology: Unifying themes for complex systems in biogeomorphology

The interaction of geomorphic and ecologic landscape components has been largely conceptualized as independent. In one direction, geomorphic processes and landforms shape the distribution of biota. Conversely, in the other direction, biota modify geomorphic processes and landforms. Increasingly, the interactions between geomorphic and ecological components are more circular and developmentally intertwined. In this paper, I integrate these two independent perspectives within the framework of complexity theory. I outline four themes that characterize complex systems in biogeomorphology: multiple causality and the concept of recursivity, the influence of organisms that function as ecosystem engineers, the expression of an ecological topology, and ecological memory. Implicit in all of these themes is the recognition that biogeomorphic systems are open and path dependent. They may exhibit a range of assembly states, from self-reinforcing stability domains to more transient configurations of organisms and environment.     

Observation of Coriolis coupled modes below 1 mHz

We present observations of spectral energy at toroidal mode frequencies in vertical seismic recordings of the 1998 Balleny Islands earthquake. Since toroidal modes on a spherically symmetric, nonrotating Earth have horizontally polarized particle motion these observations call for an explanation. We first rule out local and instrumental effects as being responsible for the verticalcomponent signal of the toroidal modes ₀ T ₃ (0.59 mHz) and ₀ T ₄ (0.77 mHz). The global effects that we consider are general heterogeneous mantle structure, ellipticity of figure and rotation. We find that rotation through Coriolis coupling of loworder spheroidal and toroidal oscillations is the dominant mechanism.     

Art,public spaces,and private property along the streets of New Orleans

In this article, I investigate how and why a street art controversy that emerged in post-Katrina New Orleans was transformed from a dispute over property transgressions to a broader struggle over the meanings of art amidst the city’s devastated condition. The controversy began when a street art initiative by the New Orleans artist Rex Dingler invoked a backlash of anti-graffiti activism. In response, local artists began painting on the walls. When the locals were joined by artists from different cities, the discussion intensified about the merits of street art as well as commentary on and reflection of a city facing systemic decline and property abandonment. Street artists, anti-graffiti activists, and property owners negotiated local private property by placing, removing and retaining graffiti, and both locals and those with no New Orleans attachments had influence. The controversy illustrates how private property functions as a public institution in addition to a system of private ownership.     

Complex systems in aeolian geomorphology

Aeolian geomorphology provides a rich ground for investigating Earth surface processes and landforms as complex systems. Sand transport by wind is a classic dissipative process with non-linear dynamics, while dune field evolution is a prototypical self-organisation phenomenon. Both of these broad areas of aeolian geomorphology are discussed and analysed in the context of complexity and a systems approach. A feedback loop analysis of the aeolian boundary-layer-flow/sediment-transport/bedform interactions, based on contemporary physical models, reveals that the system is fundamentally unstable (or at most meta-stable) and likely to exhibit chaotic behaviour. Recent field-experimental research on aeolian streamers and spatio-temporal transport patterns, however, indicates that sand transport by wind may be wholly controlled by a self-similar turbulence cascade in the boundary layer flow, and that key aspects of transport event time-series can be fully reproduced from a combination of (self-organised) 1/f forcing, motion threshold, and saltation inertia. The evolution of various types of bare-sand dunes and dune field patterns have been simulated successfully with self-organising cellular automata that incorporate only simplified physically-based interactions (rules). Because of their undefined physical scale, however, it not clear whether they in fact simulate ripples (bedforms) or dunes (landforms), raising fundamental cross-cutting questions regarding the difference between aeolian dunes, impact ripples, and subaqueous (current) ripples and dunes. An extended cellular automaton (CA) model, currently under development, incorporates the effects of vegetation in the aeolian environment and is capable of simulating the development of nebkhas, blow-outs, and parabolic coastal dunes. Preliminary results indicate the potential for establishing phase diagrams and attractor trajectories for vegetated aeolian dunescapes. Progress is limited, however, by a serious lack of appropriate concepts for quantifying meaningful state variables at the landscape scale. State variables currently used in the bare-sand models are far from capturing the rich 3D topography and patterns and are not sufficiently discriminative to distinguish different attractors. The vegetation component in the extended model, and indeed ecogeomorphic systems in general, pose even graver challenges to establishing appropriate state variables. A re-examination of older concepts, such as landscape entropy, perhaps complemented by recent developments in information theory, may be a potentially fruitful avenue for research, although the outlines of such an implementation are still rather vague.     

人地系统耦合框架下的生态系统服务

生态系统服务是连接自然环境与人类福祉的桥梁,是人地系统耦合研究的核心内容。本文在构建生态系统服务与人地系统耦合研究框架的基础上,系统梳理了生态系统服务评估、生态系统服务权衡、生态系统服务影响因素、生态系统服务供给流动与需求等研究前沿,提出了未来生态系统服务研究的重点领域。主要研究结论认为：①国际生态系统服务模型发展迅速,SAORES模型是中国生态系统服务模型优化与参数本地化的突出代表;②生态系统服务权衡具有相对复杂的时空尺度,权衡分析的前提是辨析不同尺度生态系统结构—过程—功能—服务的作用机制;③自然因素是生态系统服务时空分布的基础,土地利用能改变生态系统结构、功能与生态系统服务变化,社会经济因素会导致生态系统服务权衡的差异;④为明晰生态系统服务供给与需求耦合关系,需进一步识别生态系统服务流的运移路径;⑤未来生态系统服务研究需加强生态系统服务对全球变化的响应特征和机制分析、面向可持续发展目标的生态系统服务供给流动与需求研究、生态系统服务的动态评价集成与优化、生态系统服务与人地系统耦合、生态系统服务与大数据集成等。