C geochronological constraints for the volcanic history of the island of Ischia (Italy) over the last 5000 years

The chronology of the most significant eruptions at the island of Ischia in the last 5000 years has been studied by means of Accelerator Mass Spectrometry to obtain ¹⁴C data. The results are in good agreement with stratigraphical and archeological constraints. This allows interpretation of the measured dates as ages of the eruptions which produced the deposits overlying or incorporating the sampled paleosols and charcoal fragments, respectively. These ages define the timing of volcanism in the last 5000 years, suggesting that the recent volcanic activity at Ischia is characterized by periods of very intense volcanism alternating to periods of quiescence. This timing of the volcanism is correlated with the behaviour of the magmatic system and dynamics of resurgence of the Mt. Epomeo block.     

Slope instability induced by volcano-tectonics as an additional source of hazard in active volcanic areas: the case of Ischia island (Italy)

Ischia is an active volcanic island in the Gulf of Naples whose history has been dominated by a caldera-forming eruption (ca. 55 ka) and resurgence phenomena that have affected the caldera floor and generated a net uplift of about 900 m since 33 ka. The results of new geomorphological, stratigraphical and textural investigations of the products of gravitational movements triggered by volcano-tectonic events have been combined with the information arising from a reinterpretation of historical chronicles on natural phenomena such as earthquakes, ground deformation, gravitational movements and volcanic eruptions. The combined interpretation of all these data shows that gravitational movements, coeval to volcanic activity and uplift events related to the long-lasting resurgence, have affected the highly fractured marginal portions of the most uplifted Mt. Epomeo blocks. Such movements, mostly occurring since 3 ka, include debris avalanches; large debris flows (lahars); smaller mass movements (rock falls, slumps, debris and rock slides, and small debris flows); and deep-seated gravitational slope deformation. The occurrence of submarine deposits linked with subaerial deposits of the most voluminous mass movements clearly shows that the debris avalanches impacted on the sea. The obtained results corroborate the hypothesis that the behaviour of the Ischia volcano is based on an intimate interplay among magmatism, resurgence dynamics, fault generation, seismicity, slope oversteepening and instability, and eruptions. They also highlight that volcano-tectonically triggered mass movements are a potentially hazardous phenomena that have to be taken into account in any attempt to assess volcanic and related hazards at Ischia. Furthermore, the largest mass movements could also flow into the sea, generating tsunami waves that could impact on the island’s coast as well as on the neighbouring and densely inhabited coast of the Neapolitan area.     

The process of resurgence for Ischia Island (southern Italy) since 55?ka: the laccolith model and implications for eruption forecasting

This study provides an analysis of the evolution of resurgence from 55?ka for the active volcanic island of Ischia, southern Italy, using a laccolith model proposed in previous studies. This paper explores the uplift phases, eruptive behavior, and associated seismic activity of Ischia Island, which are important issues as the island has a high volcanic risk. Through an analysis of stress and strain over time for laccolith pressurization, it is shown that during resurgence, Ischia Island has undergone flexural uplift and progressive fracturing and faulting of the shallow crust (2?km thick), with an increase in the laccolith’s volume of at least 80?km³ and an average magma influx of 0.015?m³?s^?1. Different elastic and viscoelastic mechanisms are used to evaluate the modes of stress relaxation due to this laccolith pressurization phase. Stress relaxation can occur through uplift and seismicity, without eruption, or with eruption. It is also shown that large eruptions should be expected only for long-term uplift of the central part of Ischia Island (the Mount Epomeo block). In contrast, the occurrence of small effusive and explosive eruptions should involve the peripheral areas of the resurgent block, and these are more likely to occur in the near future than are large events.     

The 11 March 2011 Tohoku Tsunami Survey in Rikuzentakata and Comparison with Historical Events

On 11 March 2011, a moment magnitude M _w = 9.0 earthquake occurred off the Japan Tohoku coast causing catastrophic damage and loss of human lives. In the immediate aftermath of the earthquake, we conducted the reconnaissance survey in the city of Rikuzentakata, Japan. In comparison with three previous historical tsunamis impacting the same region, the 2011 event presented the largest values with respect to the tsunami height, the inundation area and the inundation distance. A representative tsunami height of 15 m was recorded in Rikuzentakata, with increased heights of 20 m around rocky headlands. In terms of the inundation area, the 2011 Tohoku tsunami exceeded by almost 2.6 times the area flooded by the 1960 Chilean tsunami, which ranks second among the four events compared. The maximum tsunami inundation distance was 8.1 km along the Kesen River, exceeding the 1933 Showa and 1960 Chilean tsunami inundations by factors of 6.2 and 2.7, respectively. The overland tsunami inundation distance was less than 2 km. The tsunami inundation height linearly decreased along the Kesen River at a rate of approximately 1 m/km. Nevertheless, the measured inland tsunami heights exhibit significant variations on local and regional scales. A designated “tsunami control forest” planted with a cross-shore width of about 200 m along a 2 km stretch of Rikuzentakata coastline was completely overrun and failed to protect the local community during this extreme event. Similarly, many designated tsunami shelters were too low and were overwashed by tsunami waves, thereby failing to provide shelter for evacuees—a risk that had been underestimated.     

W Phase Inversion and Tsunami Inundation Modeling for Tsunami Early Warning: Case Study for the 2011 Tohoku Event

Centroid moment tensor solutions for the 2011 Tohoku earthquake are determined by W phase inversions using 5 and 10 min data recorded by the Full Range Seismograph Network of Japan (F-net). By a scaling relation of moment magnitude to rupture area and an assumption of rigidity of 4 × 10¹⁰ N m^?2, simple rectangular earthquake fault models are estimated from the solutions. Tsunami inundations in the Sendai Plain, Minamisanriku, Rikuzentakata, and Taro are simulated using the estimated fault models. Then the simulated tsunami inundation area and heights are compared with the observations. Even the simulated tsunami heights and inundations from the W phase solution that used only 5 min data are considerably similar to the observations. The results are improved when using 10 min of W phase data. These show that the W phase solutions are reliable to be used for tsunami inundation modeling. Furthermore, the technique that combines W phase inversion and tsunami inundation modeling can produce results that have sufficient accuracy for tsunami early warning purposes.     

Tsunami Source of the 2010 Mentawai, Indonesia Earthquake Inferred from Tsunami Field Survey and Waveform Modeling

The 2010 Mentawai earthquake (magnitude 7.7) generated a destructive tsunami that caused more than 500 casualties in the Mentawai Islands, west of Sumatra, Indonesia. Seismological analyses indicate that this earthquake was an unusual “tsunami earthquake,” which produces much larger tsunamis than expected from the seismic magnitude. We carried out a field survey to measure tsunami heights and inundation distances, an inversion of tsunami waveforms to estimate the slip distribution on the fault, and inundation modeling to compare the measured and simulated tsunami heights. The measured tsunami heights at eight locations on the west coasts of North and South Pagai Island ranged from 2.5 to 9.3 m, but were mostly in the 4–7 m range. At three villages, the tsunami inundation extended more than 300 m. Interviews of local residents indicated that the earthquake ground shaking was less intense than during previous large earthquakes and did not cause any damage. Inversion of tsunami waveforms recorded at nine coastal tide gauges, a nearby GPS buoy, and a DART station indicated a large slip (maximum 6.1 m) on a shallower part of the fault near the trench axis, a distribution similar to other tsunami earthquakes. The total seismic moment estimated from tsunami waveform inversion was 1.0 × 10²¹ Nm, which corresponded to M_w 7.9. Computed coastal tsunami heights from this tsunami source model using linear equations are similar to the measured tsunami heights. The inundation heights computed by using detailed bathymetry and topography data and nonlinear equations including inundation were smaller than the measured ones. This may have been partly due to the limited resolution and accuracy of publically available bathymetry and topography data. One-dimensional run-up computations using our surveyed topography profiles showed that the computed heights were roughly similar to the measured ones.     

New insights into Late Pleistocene explosive volcanic activity and caldera formation on Ischia (southern Italy)

A new pyroclastic stratigraphy is presented for the island of Ischia, Italy, for the period ∼75–50 ka BP. The data indicate that this period bore witness to the largest eruptions recorded on the island and that it was considerably more volcanically active than previously thought. Numerous vents were probably active during this period. The deposits of at least 10 explosive phonolite to basaltic-trachyandesite eruptions are described and interpreted. They record a diverse range of explosive volcanic activity including voluminous fountain-fed ignimbrite eruptions, fallout from sustained eruption columns, block-and-ash flows, and phreatomagmatic eruptions. Previously unknown eruptions have been recognised for the first time on the island. Several of the eruptions produced pyroclastic density currents that covered the whole island as well as the neighbouring island of Procida and parts of the mainland. The morphology of Ischia was significantly different to that seen today, with edifices to the south and west and a submerged depression in the centre. The largest volcanic event, the Monte Epomeo Green Tuff (MEGT) resulted in caldera collapse across all or part of the island. It is shown to comprise at least two thick intracaldera ignimbrite flow-units, separated by volcaniclastic sediments that were deposited during a pause in the eruption. Extracaldera deposits of the MEGT include a pumice fall deposit emplaced during the opening phases of the eruption, a widespread lithic lag breccia outcropping across much of Ischia and Procida, and a distal ignimbrite in south-west Campi Flegrei. During this period the style and magnitude of volcanism was dictated by the dynamics of a large differentiated magma chamber, which was partially destroyed during the MEGT eruption. This contrasts with the small-volume Holocene and historical effusive and explosive activity on Ischia, the timing and distribution of which has been controlled by the resurgence of the Monte Epomeo block. The new data contribute to a clearer understanding of the long-term volcanic and magmatic evolution of Ischia.     

Satellite Data for a Rapid Assessment of Tsunami Inundation Areas after the 2011 Tohoku Tsunami

The M _w = 9.0 earthquake that occurred off the coast of Japan’s Tohoku region produced a great tsunami causing catastrophic damage and loss of life. Within hours of the tsunami event, satellite data were readily available and massive media coverage immediately circulated thousands of photographs and videos of the tsunami. Satellite data allow a rapid assessment of inundated areas where access can be difficult either as a result of damaged infrastructure (e.g., roads, bridges, ports, airports) or because of safety issues (e.g., the hazard at Nuclear Power Plant at Fukushima). In this study, we assessed in a day tsunami inundation distances and runup heights using satellite data (very high-resolution satellite images from the GeoEye1 satellite and from the DigitalGlobe worldview, SRTM and ASTER GDEM) of the Tohoku region, Northeast Japan. Field survey data by Japanese and other international scientists validated our results. This study focused on three different locations. Site selection was based on coastal morphologies and the distance to the tsunami source (epicenter). Study sites are Rikuzentakata, Oyagawahama, and Yagawahama in the Oshika Peninsula, and the Sendai coastal plain (Sendai City to Yamamoto City). Maximum inundation distance (6 km along the river) and maximum runup (39 m) at Rikuzentakata estimated from satellite data agree closely with the 39.7 m inundation reported in the field. Here the ria coastal morphology and horn shaped bay enhanced the tsunami runup and effects. The Sendai coastal plain shows large inundation distances (6 km) and lower runup heights. Natori City and Wakabayashi Ward, on the Sendai plain, have similar runup values (12 and 16 m, respectively) obtained from SRTM data; these are comparable to those obtained from field surveys (12 and 9.5 m). However, at Yagawahama and Oyagawahama, Miyagi Prefecture, both SRTM and ASTER data provided maximum runup heights (41 to 45 m and 33 to 34 m, respectively), which are higher than those measured in the field (about 27 m). This difference in DEM and field data is associated with ASTER and SRTM DEM’s pixel size and vertical accuracy, the latter being dependent on ground coverage, slope, aspect and elevation. Countries with less access to technology and infrastructure can benefit from the use of satellite imagery and freely available DEMs for an initial, pre-field surveys, rapid estimate of inundated areas, distances and runup, and for assisting in hazard management and mitigation after a natural disaster.     

Salinity in Soils and Tsunami Deposits in Areas Affected by the 2010 Chile and 2011 Japan Tsunamis

The accumulation of data sets of past tsunamis is the most basic but reliable way to prepare for future tsunamis because the frequency of tsunami occurrence and their magnitude can be estimated by historical records of tsunamis. Investigation of tsunami deposits preserved in geological layers is an effective measure to understand ancient tsunamis that occurred before historical records began. However, the areas containing tsunami deposits can be narrower than the area of tsunami inundation, thus resulting in underestimation of the magnitude of past tsunamis. A field survey was conducted after the 2010 Chile tsunami and 2011 Japan tsunami to investigate the chemical properties of the tsunami-inundated soil to examine the applicability of tsunami inundation surveys considering water-soluble salts in soil. The soil and tsunami deposits collected in the tsunami-inundated areas are rich in water-soluble ions (Na⁺, Mg²⁺, Cl^?, Br^? and SO ₄ ^2? ) compared with the samples collected in the non-inundated areas. The analytical result that the ratios of Na⁺, Mg²⁺, Br^? and SO ₄ ^2? to Cl^? are nearly the same in the tsunami deposits and in the tsunami-inundated soil suggests that the deposition of these ions resulting from the tsunami inundation does not depend on whether or not tsunami deposits exist. Discriminant analysis of the tsunami-inundated areas using the ion contents shows the high applicability of these ions to the detection of tsunami inundation during periods when the amount of rainfall is limited. To examine the applicability of this method to palaeotsunamis, the continuous monitoring of water-soluble ions in tsunami-inundated soil is needed as a future study.     

Modeling of the 2011 Japan Tsunami: Lessons for Near-Field Forecast

During the devastating 11 March 2011 Japanese tsunami, data from two tsunami detectors were used to determine the tsunami source within 1.5 h of earthquake origin time. For the first time, multiple near-field tsunami measurements of the 2011 Japanese tsunami were used to demonstrate the accuracy of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) real-time flooding forecast system in the far field. To test the accuracy of the same forecast system in the near field, a total of 11 numerical models with grids telescoped to 2 arcsec (~60 m) were developed to hindcast the propagation and coastal inundation of the 2011 Japanese tsunami along the entire east coastline of Japan. Using the NOAA tsunami source computed in near real-time, the model results of tsunami propagation are validated with tsunami time series measured at different water depths offshore and near shore along Japan’s coastline. The computed tsunami runup height and spatial distribution are highly consistent with post-tsunami survey data collected along the Japanese coastline. The computed inundation penetration also agrees well with survey data, giving a modeling accuracy of 85.5 % for the inundation areas along 800 km of coastline between Ibaraki Prefecture (north of Kashima) and Aomori Prefecture (south of Rokkasho). The inundation model results highlighted the variability of tsunami impact in response to different offshore bathymetry and flooded terrain. Comparison of tsunami sources inferred from different indirect methods shows the crucial importance of deep-ocean tsunami measurements for real-time tsunami forecasts. The agreement between model results and observations along Japan’s coastline demonstrate the ability and potential of NOAA’s methodology for real-time near-field tsunami flooding forecasts. An accurate tsunami flooding forecast within 30 min may now be possible using the NOAA forecast methodology with carefully placed tsunameters and large-scale high-resolution inundation models with powerful computing capabilities.     

The interaction between regional and local tectonics during resurgent doming: the case of the island of Ischia, Italy

The volcanic island of Ischia is located on the Tyrrhenian margin of Central Italy, characterized by Plio-Quaternary NW–SE- and NE–SW-trending extensional fractures. Ischia displays a resurgent dome uplifted by at least 800 m in the last 33 ka. Remote sensing and field data have been collected to study the structural setting of the island, the deformation pattern associated with resurgence and the superimposition of the regional and the resurgence-induced stress fields. NW–SE and NE–SW extensional fracture systems predominate throughout the island and around the resurgent block, suggesting a relationship with the regional extensional structures. These systems were formed before resurgence and were partly reactivated during resurgence. The reactivation of pre-existing regional systems during resurgence confined the extent of the uplifted area. N–S- and E–W-trending systems have been found exclusively at the borders of the dome and are interpreted as being induced by resurgence. The topmost resurgent block shows an octagonal shape in map view and is tilted at an angle of 15° around a NE–SW-trending horizontal axis; the block is partly bordered by high-angle, inward-dipping regional faults. More than 90% in volume of the volcanic products coeval with resurgence on Ischia have been erupted outside the resurgent block area, suggesting that the resurgence process locally replaced volcanic activity in the last 33 ka.     

Coastal Sedimentation Associated with the Tohoku Tsunami of 11 March 2011 in South Kuril Islands, NW Pacific Ocean

Sediment deposited by the Tohoku tsunami of March 11, 2011 in the Southern Kurils (Kunashir, Shikotan, Zeleniy, Yuri, Tanfiliev islands) was radically different from sedimentation during local strong storms and from tsunamis with larger runup at the same location. Sediments from the 2011 Tohoku tsunami were surveyed in the field, immediately and 6 months after the event, and analyzed in the laboratory for sediment granulometry, benthos Foraminifa assemblages, and diatom algae. Run-up elevation and inundation distance were calculated from the wrackline (accumulations of driftwood, woody debris, grass, and seaweed) marking the distal edge of tsunami inundation. Run-up of the tsunami was 5 m at maximum, and 3–4 m on average. Maximum distance of inundation was recorded in river mouths (up to 630 m), but was generally in the range of 50–80 m. Although similar to the local strong storms in runup height, the tsunami generally did not erode the coast, nor leave a deposit. However, deposits uncharacteristic of tsunami, described as brown aleuropelitic (silty and clayey) mud rich in organic matter, were found in closed bays facing the South Kuril Strait. These closed bays were covered with sea ice at the time of tsunami. As the tsunami waves broke the ice, the ice floes enhanced the bottom erosion on shoals and destruction of low-lying coastal peatland even at modest ranges of runup. In the muddy tsunami deposits, silt comprised up to 64 % and clay up to 41.5 %. The Foraminifera assemblages displayed features characteristic of benthic microfauna in the near-shore zone. Deep-sea diatoms recovered from tsunami deposits in two closely situated bays, namely Krabovaya and Otradnaya bays, had different requirements for environmental temperature, suggesting these different diatoms were brought to the bays by the tsunami wave entraining various water masses when skirting the island from the north and from the south.     

Erosion and deposition by debris flows at Mt Thomas,North Canterbury,New Zealand

The grass-covered slopes on the southern flank of Mt Thomas, an upfaulted block of highly sheared sandstone and argillite 40 km NW of Christchurch, New Zealand, are presently undergoing severe erosion by a combination of mass-wasting processes. Gully erosion, soil slips, and debris flows have carved out a number of steep, deeply incised ravines, from which coarse debris is transported (primarily by debris flows) to alluvial fans below. Geologic and historical evidence indicates that debris flows have been episodically active here for at least the last 20,000 years and have been the dominant process in fan building. This demonstrates that catastrophic geomorphic processes, rather than processes acting at relatively uniform rates, can be dominant in humid-temperate areas as well as in arid and semi-arid regions. In April 1978, debris flows were triggered in one of two unstable ravines in the Bullock Creek catchment by a moderate intensity, long duration rainstorm with a return period in excess of 20 years. Surges of fluid debris, moving at velocities up to 5 m/s, transported a dense slurry of gravel, sand, and mud up to 3·5 km over a vertical fall of 600 m. Deposition on the alluvial fan occurred when the flows left the confines of an entrenched fan-head channel and spread out as a 0·16 km² sheet averaging 1·2 m thick. In all, 195,000 m³ were deposited, roughly a third of that being reworked sediments from the head of the fan. Sediment yield from this one event would be equivalent to several thousand years worth of erosion at average sediment discharge rates for small South Island mountain catchments. Samples of viscous fluid debris during surges contained up to 84 per cent solids, composed of 70 per cent gravel, 20 per cent silt, and 4 per cent clay. Fluid density of the material ranged between 1·95 and 2·13 g/cm³, and it was extremely poorly sorted. Between surges the fluid was less viscous, less dense, and unable to carry gravel in suspension. Severe fan-head entrenchment of the stream channel (approximately 10 m in less than 24 hours) was accomplished by the erosive action of the surges. Tectonic uplift of the Mt Thomas block and the weak, crushed condition of the bedrock appear to be ultimately responsible for the catastropic erosion of slopes in the Bullock Creek catchment. However, forest clearing within the last few centuries appears to have greatly increased the rate of mass wasting and gully erosion on these slopes.     

Reconstruction of Tsunami Inland Propagation on December 26, 2004 in Banda Aceh, Indonesia, through Field Investigations

This paper presents the results from an extensive field data collection effort following the December 26, 2004 earthquake and tsunami in Banda Aceh, Sumatra. The data were collected under the auspices of TSUNARISQUE, a joint French-Indonesian program dedicated to tsunami research and hazard mitigation, which has been active since before the 2004 event. In total, data from three months of field investigations are presented, which detail important aspects of the tsunami inundation dynamics in Banda Aceh. These include measurements of runup, tsunami wave heights, flow depths, flow directions, event chronology and building damage patterns. The result is a series of detailed inundation maps of the northern and western coasts of Sumatra including Banda Aceh and Lhok Nga. Among the more important findings, we obtained consistent accounts that approximately ten separate waves affected the region after the earthquake; this indicates a high-frequency component of the tsunami wave energy in the extreme near-field. The largest tsunami wave heights were on the order of 35 m with a maximum runup height of 51 m. This value is the highest runup value measured in human history for a seismically generated tsunami. In addition, our field investigations show a significant discontinuity in the tsunami wave heights and flow depths along a line approximately 3 km inland, which the authors interpret to be the location of the collapse of the main tsunami bore caused by sudden energy dissipation. The propagating bore looked like a breaking wave from the landward side although it has distinct characteristics. Patterns of building damage are related to the location of the propagating bore with overall less damage to buildings beyond the line where the bore collapsed. This data set was built to be of use to the tsunami community for the purposes of calibrating and improving existing tsunami inundation models, especially in the analysis of extreme near-field events.     

The 2011 Tohoku-oki Earthquake Tsunami: Similarities and Differences to the 869 Jogan Tsunami on the Sendai Plain

A post-tsunami field survey following the 2011 Tohoku-oki Earthquake Tsunami was carried out to asses inundated area in Sendai Plain, Northeast Japan. The type of inundation was classified into two categories (major and minor) according to the amount of accumulated debris, garbage and sediment. Major and minor inundations were identified up to 4 and 5 km from the coastline, respectively. Many artificial geomorphological features, such as roadway embankments and canals, were believed to have affected the run-up process of the tsunami. The inundation area of the 2011 tsunami on the Sendai Plain is compared with that of the 869 Jogan tsunami, which was reconstructed using numerical modeling based on available historical and geological records. The inundation area of the 2011 Tohoku-oki tsunami is comparable to that of the 869 Jogan tsunami, although a direct comparison is difficult due to differences in geomorphological contexts between the paleo period and the present.     

Tsunami damage to coastal defences and buildings in the March 11th 2011 M w 9.0 Great East Japan earthquake and tsunami

On March 11th 2011 a M _w 9.0 mega-thrust interface subduction earthquake, the Great East Japan Earthquake, occurred 130 km off the northeast coast of Japan in the Pacific Ocean at the Japan Trench, triggering tsunami which caused damage along 600 km of coastline. Observations of damage to buildings (including vertical evacuation facilities) and coastal defences in Tōhoku are presented following investigation by the Earthquake Engineering Field Investigation Team (EEFIT) at 10 locations in Iwate and Miyagi Prefectures. Observations are presented in the context of the coastal setting and tsunami characteristics experienced at each location. Damage surveys were carried out in Kamaishi City and Kesennuma City using a damage scale for reinforced concrete (RC), timber and steel frame buildings adapted from an earlier EEFIT tsunami damage scale. Observations show that many sea walls and breakwaters were overtopped, overturned, or broken up, but provided some degree of protection. We show the extreme variability of damage in a local area due to inundation depth, flow direction, velocity variations and sheltering. Survival of many RC shear wall structures shows their high potential to withstand local earthquake and significant tsunami inundation but further research is required into mitigation of scour, liquefaction, debris impact, and the prevention of overturning failure. Damage to steel and timber buildings are also discussed. These observations are intended to contribute to mitigation of future earthquake and tsunami damage by highlighting the key features which influence damage level and local variability of damage sustained by urban coastal infrastructure when subjected to extreme tsunami inundation depths.     

Future river flows and flood extent in the Upper Niger and Inner Niger Delta: GCM-related uncertainty using the CMIP5 ensemble

A semi-distributed hydrological model of the Upper Niger and the Inner Niger Delta is used to investigate the RCP 4.5 scenario for 41 CMIP5 GCMs in the 2050s and 2080s. In percentage terms, the range of change in precipitation is around four times as large as for potential evapotranspiration, which increases for most GCMs over most sub-catchments. Almost equal numbers of sub-catchment–GCM combinations experience positive and negative precipitation change. River discharge changes are equally uncertain. Inter-GCM range in mean discharge exceeds that of precipitation by three times in percentage terms. Declining seasonal flooding within the Inner Delta is dominant; 78 and 68% of GCMs project declines in October and November for the 2050s and 2080s, respectively. The 10- and 90-percentile changes in mean annual peak inundation range from ?6136 km² (?43%) to +987 km² (+7%) for the 2050s and ?6176 km² (?43%) to +1165 km² (+8.2%) for the 2080s.     

Field Survey and Geological Effects of the 15 November 2006 Kuril Tsunami in the Middle Kuril Islands

The near-field expression of the tsunami produced by the 15 November 2006 Kuril earthquake (M_w 8.1–8.4) in the middle Kuril Islands, Russia, including runup of up to 20 m, remained unknown until we conducted a post-tsunami survey in the summer of 2007. Because the earthquake occurred between summer field expeditions in 2006 and 2007, we have observations, topographic profiles, and photographs from three months before and nine months after the tsunami. We thoroughly surveyed portions of the islands of Simushir and Matua, and also did surveys on parts of Ketoi, Yankicha, Ryponkicha, and Rasshua. Tsunami runup in the near-field of the middle Kuril Islands, over a distance of about 200 km, averaged 10 m over 130 locations surveyed and was typically between 5 and 15 m. Local topography strongly affected inundation and somewhat affected runup. Higher runup generally occurred along steep, protruding headlands, whereas longer inundation distances occurred on lower, flatter coastal plains. Sediment transport was ubiquitous where sediment was available—deposit grain size was typically sand, but ranged from mud to large boulders. Wherever there were sandy beaches, a more or less continuous sand sheet was present on the coastal plain. Erosion was extensive, often more extensive than deposition in both space and volume, especially in areas with runup of more than 10 m. The tsunami eroded the beach landward, stripped vegetation, created scours and trim lines, cut through ridges, and plucked rocks out of the coastal plain.     

A Probabilistic Tsunami Hazard Study of the Auckland Region, Part II: Inundation Modelling and Hazard Assessment

Regional source tsunamis pose a potentially devastating hazard to communities and infrastructure on the New Zealand coast. But major events are very uncommon. This dichotomy of infrequent but potentially devastating hazards makes realistic assessment of the risk challenging. Here, we describe a method to determine a probabilistic assessment of the tsunami hazard by regional source tsunamis with an “Average Recurrence Interval” of 2,500-years. The method is applied to the east Auckland region of New Zealand. From an assessment of potential regional tsunamigenic events over 100,000 years, the inundation of the Auckland region from the worst 100 events is modelled using a hydrodynamic model and probabilistic inundation depths on a 2,500-year time scale were determined. Tidal effects on the potential inundation were included by coupling the predicted wave heights with the probability density function of tidal heights at the inundation site. Results show that the more exposed northern section of the east coast and outer islands in the Hauraki Gulf face the greatest hazard from regional tsunamis in the Auckland region. Incorporating tidal effects into predictions of inundation reduced the predicted hazard compared to modelling all the tsunamis arriving at high tide giving a more accurate hazard assessment on the specified time scale. This study presents the first probabilistic analysis of dynamic modelling of tsunami inundation for the New Zealand coast and as such provides the most comprehensive assessment of tsunami inundation of the Auckland region from regional source tsunamis available to date.     

The Kalapana earthquake of November 29, 1975: An intra-plate earthquake and its relation to geothermal processes

By use of teleseismic and local data, the P-wave source mechanism of the Kalapana, Hawaii, earthquake of November 29, 1975 was found to have a common strike of N64°E for the two nodal planes. One plane dipped 4° to the NW; the other dipped 86° to the SE. After consulting subsurface geological data obtained by the recent Hawaii geothermal exploration program, it was decided that the plane dipping to the NW at 4° was the preferred solution.Seismic moment obtained from body-wave data and surface-wave data averaged 1.2 · 10²⁷ dyn cm. Fault area from P-wave, surface wave and tsunami data amounted to about 2200 km². Stress drop was on the order of tens of bars.The earthquake appears to be of volcanic origin. When magma pressure in the dike complex of the east rift of Kilauea exceeded the fracture point, the southern flank of the east rift was pushed across the ancient sea floor upon which the volcanic edifice rests. The result was a low-angle overthrust, which also produced a tsunami. The hypothesis of forceful intrusion of magma into the east rift is consistent with the mechanism of the earthquake.The low stress drop (in relation to other intra-plate earthquakes) is probably due to the occurrence of the earthquake in a hot-rock regime.