Combining CLUE-S and SWAT models to forecast land use change and non-point source pollution impact at a watershed scale in Liaoning Province,China

Non-point source （NPS） pollution has become a major source of water pollution. A combination of models would provide the necessary direction and approaches designed to control NPS pollution through land use planning. In this study, NPS pollution load was simulated in urban planning, historic trends and ecological protection land use scenarios based on the Conversion of Land Use and its Effect at Small regional extent （CLUE-S） and Soil and Water Assessment Tool （SWAT） models applied to Hunhe-Taizi River Watershed, Liaoning Province, China. Total nitrogen （TN） and total phosphorus （TP） were chosen as NPS pollution indices. The results of models validation showed that CLUE-S and SWAT models were suitable in the study area. NPS pollution mainly came from dry farmland, paddy, rural and urban areas. The spatial distribution of TN and TP exhibited the same trend in 57 sub-catchments. The TN and TP had the highest NPS pollution load in the western and central plains, which concentrated the urban area and farm land. The NPS pollution load would increase in the urban planning and historic trends scenarios, and would be even higher in the urban planning scenario. How- ever, the NPS pollution load decreased in the ecological protection scenario. The differences observed in the three scenarios indicated that land use had a degree of impact on NPS pollution, which showed that scientific and ecologically sound construction could effec- tively reduce the NPS pollution load in a watershed. This study provides a scientific method for conducting NPS pollution research at the watershed scale, a scientific basis for non-point source pollution control, and a reference for related policy making.     

Impacts of land cover changes on runoff and sediment in the Cedar Creek Watershed,St. Joseph River,Indiana, United States

The relation between runoff and sediment and land cover is investigated in the Cedar Creek Watershed （CCW）, located in Northeastern Indiana, United States. The major land cover types in this watershed are cultivated land, woodland and pasture /Conservation Reserve Program （CRP）, which account for approximate 90 % of the total area in the region. Moreover, land use was changed tremendously from aooo to 9004, even without regarding the effect of the crop rotation system （corn ＆ soybean）. At least 49 % of land cover types were changed into other types in this period. The land cover types, ranking by changing area from high to low series, are rye, soybean, corn, woodland and pasture/CRP. The CCW is divided into 21 subwatersheds, and soil and water loss in each sub-watershed is computed by using Soil and Water Assessment Tool （SWAT）. The results indicate that the variations in runoff and sediment have positive relation to the area of crops （especially corn and soybean）; sediment is more sensitive to land cover changes than runoff; more heavy rainfall does not always mean more runoff because the combination of different land cover types always modify runoff coefficient; and rye, soybean and corn are the key land cover types, which affected the variation in runoff and sediment in the CCW.     

Inter-annual variation of streamflow,precipitation and evaporation in a small humid watershed (Chengcun Basin,China)

For sustainable water resource management,it is important to determine the relationship between streamfl ow and other variables that infl uence availability of water resources.However,many catchments do not have suffi cient data to allow for a more detailed study of these relationships.We faced a similar challenge in the Chengcun Basin(limited historical data: from 1986–1999); and therefore we used a new approach to overcome this.We found that,using nonparametric trend methods in conjunction with the climate elasticity analyses and the 2D visualization of hydrologic data,it is possible to assess the relationships between streamfl ow and other hydro-climatic variables.In the past,streamfl ow trends in the basin were more correlated with precipitation than with potential evapotranspiration(PET).In addition,there is a gradual shift in the hydrological regime of the catchment,which may affect the occurrence of available water resources and activities that depend on them.In addition,based on our climate sensitivity analyses,the streamfl ow is dependent and more sensitive to variations in precipitation than to PET(δQ=0.79δP+0.42δE; precipitation elasticity,ε P=1.32; PET elasticity,ε E=-2.10).Therefore pending more detailed studies,the use of our approach will provide a rapid means to assess the variation of water resources(streamfl ow)in a watershed.In the future,we hope to carry out related research in other watersheds and also perform a more detailed studies to improve upon the results of this study.     

Analyzing and forecasting climate change in Harbin City,Northeast China

Based on sounding data from 1975 to 2005 and TM/ETM+ remote sensing images in 1989, 2001 and 2007, the climate changes in Harbin City, Northeast China in recent 30 years were analyzed and forecasted. Results show that in the lower troposphere the meridional wind speed and mean annual wind speed decrease, and in the lower stratosphere the temperature decreases while the meridional wind speed increases significantly. In the study area, the climate is becoming warmer and wetter in the middle lower troposphere. The expansion of urban area has great effects on the surface air temperature and the wind speed, leading to the increase of the surface air temperature, the decrease of the surface wind speed, and the increase of the area of urban high temperature zone. The quantitative equations have been established among the surface air temperature, the carbon dioxide (CO₂) concentration and the specific humidity (the water vapor content). It is predicted that the future increasing rate of the surface air temperature is 0.85°C/10yr if emission concentration of CO₂ remains unchanged; if emission concentration of CO₂ decreases to 75%, 50% and 25%, respectively, the surface air temperature will increase 0.65°C/10yr, 0.46°C/10yr and 0.27°C/10yr, respectively. The rise of the surface air temperature in the study area is higher than that of the global mean temperature forecasted by IPCC.     

HUMAN IMPACTS ON THE ECOLOGICAL ENVIRONMENT AND MODERN URBAN CLIMATE CHANGE IN THE LOESS PLATEAU

The influence of human activities on environment and climate change is the most conspicuous problem of the Loess Plateau, and it may be divided into two aspects: firstly, the excessive utilization of land by the human race causes the destruction of vegetation, and consequently large expanse of land is under desertification and the characteristics of the ground surface and the water and heat exchange on the ground surface have changed; secondly, the use of coal by industries produces a huge amount of carbon dioxide and trace elements, which enter into the atmosphere to cause air pollution.Data of 1951-1990 are collected from 69 meteorological stations on the Loess Plateau. After analysis, the decadal variations of temperature and rainfall in the last 40 years are obtained as follows: (1) In the arid zone of the north- west of the Loess Plateau, the increase in temperature is the largest. For the past 40 years, the annual mean temperature has increased 0.7-1.0 ℃ . In the semiarid zone of the middle part     

Spatial structure of central places in Jilin Central Urban Agglomeration,Jilin Province,China

Using the radius of gyration from fractal theory, this paper describes the calculation of fractal dimensions for the four tiers of central places in the Jilin Central Urban Agglomeration(JCUA), Jilin Province, China and the structural characteristics of each tier: 1) the 1st tier central place, Changchun Proper(not including Shuangyang District), provides the most service functions and has the most stable primate position; 2) the 2nd tier central places, Jilin Proper, Siping Proper, Liaoyuan Proper and Songyuan Proper have unclear statuses and do not provide certain functions; 3) the 3rd tier central places comprise 23 county-level cities, counties and urban districts(including Shuangyang District of Changchun), exhibiting a dense spatial structure that agrees with theory; 4) the 4th tier contains the largest number of central places(248 designated towns), but they are loosely distributed. In this study, a spatial image of the JCUA was created, based on vectorized data of the urban settlement distribution, which was then modified and abstracted to create a hexagonal network covering the JCUA. Compared to the traditional central place model, the modified spatial image conforms to the K = 3 principle. In reality, however, the growth of some 3rd tier central places should be increased with the cities being upgraded to the 2nd tier so as to overcome that tier′s functional deficiency. The loose distribution in the 4th tier should also be changed. This apparent anomaly can be explained by the fact that the classic hexagon model used to describe the way market areas layout does not exist in the real world. However, this should not be viewed as an obstacle to using central place theory. If its assumptions are properly applied, it can still assist research into the spatial structure of regions.     

Road impacts on spatial patterns of land use and landscape fragmentation in three parallel rivers region, Yunnan Province, China

The structure and function of network is a central issue in landscape ecology.Road networks with hierarchical structure are crucial for understanding landscape dynamics.In this study,we compared the distribution of national road,provincial road,county road and rural road in the Three Parallel Rivers Region(TPRR)in Yunnan Province of China,and estimated the effect of roads(and other factors)on the spatial patterns of land use and land cover with logistic regression.In addition,we analyzed the land use and land cover change(LUCC)and landscape fragmentation in 1989–2005 along a buffer zone of the primary traffic corridor,national road G214.The results showed that,county and rural roads had much higher percentage of length extending into more natural habitats at higher elevation and steeper slope,compared with the higher level roads in this region.While the distributions of natural land cover types were dominated by environmental factors,human land use types i.e.,building land and farmland types were significantly related with roads,linking more closely with lower level roads.The LUCC dynamics(1989–2005)of the G214 buffer zone showed a general trend of land transformation from conifer forests and valley arid shrubs to building land and farmland,and from ice and snow to alpine shrubs and forests.With the length of G214 unchanged during the time,the overall landscape pattern changed little in the buffer zone,but habitat fragmentation and area decrease had occurred for the natural vegetation types,in contrast to patch mergence and expansion of human land use types,and landscape fragmentation was intensified above 2500 m a.s.l.but declined below the elevation.The results indicated the dynamics of landscape composition and patch type level distribution in spite of the stability of the overall landscape pattern,and implied the potential role of roads,especially the low level roads on landscape changes.     

Quantitative assessment of impacts of climate and economic-technical factors on grain yield in Jilin Province from 1980 to 2008

Climate change is one of the most important challenges threatening agricultural grain yield and food security. Determining the factors influencing grain yield in Jilin Province and the weights of their contribution are a very important task, because Jilin Province is an important agriculture base in China. In this study, the accumulation factor sequence evaluating data method was used to analyze the climate and economic-technical factor contribution weights to grain yield and grain yield changes in each city of Jilin Province. Climate yield was also estimated to study the climate effect on the grain yield, and it was calculated in two ways:an improved algorithm and a traditional quadratic method. The results show that the climate and economic-technical factors have different contribution weights to grain yield in different cities in Jilin Province. The contribution weight of the climate factor to grain yield was 0.212-0.349, while that the economic-technical factor was 0.651-0.788. Furthermore, the changes of the climate factor contributing to grain yield changes accounted for 0.296-0.546, and the changes of the economic-technical factor accounted for 0.454-0.704. The weights of climate and economic-technical factor contributing to grain yield are very different between the eastern and western cities in Jilin Province, but their weights contributing to the grain yield change are similar in these cities. In general, the amount of fertilizer used per hectare (FUPH) is the main factor affecting grain yields and yield changes from 1980 to 2008. It is noted that when the FUPH growth rate stabilized after 1995, the effects of the climate factor on the grain yield become more obvious than before. The improved algorithm is effective for estimating climate yield in Jilin Province, and the climate yields were mostly between-500 kg/ha and 500 kg/ha, and showed a slightly rising trend in most cities.     

Soil properties in two soil profiles from terraces of the Nam Co Lake in Tibet, China

This article investigates the soil properties in two soil profiles from the terraces of the Nam Co Lake in Tibet, China. Profile 1, with a slope aspect to east, is 37 m, and profile 2, to southwest, is 32 m above the lake level. Twelve and nine layers were identified in profile 1 and profile 2, respectively, based on the color, texture, structure, moisture content, presence of carbonate, and root density. Grain sizes and measurements of water content, total organic carbon, total inorganic carbon, total carbon, pH value and electrical conductivity were all analyzed for each sample. The results show that soil is poorly developed because of sparse vegetation coverage and weak chemical weathering in the cold and arid area. The results also indicate that the soil properties are different between the two profiles and suggest that soil is better developed in profile 1 than in profile 2. These differences are ascribed to the dissimilarity of landform, vegetation and timing. Profile 1 faces to east as compared with profile 2 facing to southwest and gets less insolation and therefore less evaporation. Thus, vegetation grows better in profile 1 than in profile 2. Radiocarbon dating and OSL dating show that profile 1 underwent a longer soil forming process than profile 2, which is helpful for the soil development in profile 1.     

三江平原挠力河上游流域水文过程及其驱动力模型研究

以三江平原挠力河上游流域为研究对象,选择年均流量和洪峰流量两个水文参变量,对流域降水、耕地面积和各水文参变量的统计回归分析,分别建立水文过程的单因素模型,用于分析气候变化、土地利用变化对水文过程的影响。在定量区分土地利用变化和气候变化的水文效应基础上,利用最小二乘法建立基于降雨量和耕地面积两种因素的流域水文过程驱动力模型。研究结果表明:(1)1956-1975年间降雨量对水文过程的影响非常显著,之后影响逐渐降低,总体上为气候模型对年均流量的模拟能力高于洪峰流量;(2)流域耕地面积,自1954年以来不断扩张,但未对水文过程产生显著影响,对洪峰流量的影响高于对年均径流的影响;(3)研究区的水文过程驱动力模型的模拟效果较好,相比单因素模型,年均流量和洪峰流量的模拟精度均得到较大提高,RMSE分别为0.5和1.04;对年均流量的模拟精度更高一些,决定性系数为0.933;(4)总体上,研究区水文过程受气候变化的影响程度高于土地利用变化,但土地利用变化对水文过程的影响不容忽视,尤其是对洪峰流量的影响呈增大趋势。     

Effects of Climatic Change on Evapotranspiration in Zhalong Wetland, Northeast China

1 Introduction As a result of persistent increase in carbon dioxide in the atmosphere since the 1950s, global and regional climate features, such as temperature and precipitation, have ob- viously changed (Yu et al., 2002). The General Circulation Models (GCMs) provide potential climate scenarios by studying the effects of carbon dioxide on the temperature. Tickell (1993) predicted that the mean temperature will increase by 1℃ till the year 2050 and by 3℃ at the end of the 22th century. S…     

A comprehensive evaluation of tourism climate suitability in Qinghai Province, China

Qinghai Province is an important component of the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau in China. Scientific evaluation of the suitability of Qinghai’s climate for tourism can contribute to overcoming obstacles posed by climate on sustainable tourism development in Qinghai Province, including disparities between the low and high seasons, high altitude health concerns, and weather events. A tourism climate suitability evaluation model of the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau is constructed (Tourism Climate Suitability Index, or TCSI), and tourism climate suitability is comprehensively evaluated for Qinghai Province from climate data from 1960 to 2009. Results show that: (I) There is clear distributional characteristics of spatial-temporal variability of TCSI values in Qinghai Province. (II) Tourism climate suitability in Qinghai Province has significant seasonal and regional differences. The year is divided into a very suitable period (July and August), suitable tourism periods (from April and October), less suitable periods (From Nov to Mar). June to August is the most suitable tourism period in Qinghai. Qinghai Province is divided into five levels of tourism climate suitability: most suitable regions, very suitable regions, suitable regions, less suitable regions, and unsuitable region. (III) The key factor which influences regional differences in tourism climatic suitability is atmospheric oxygen. And the key factors which chiefly influence seasonal differences of tourism climate suitability are temperature and humidity, the wind chill factor, and barrier weather.     

硫酸盐气溶胶对长江中下游夏季降水年代际转型的影响

为了研究人为硫酸盐气溶胶增长对1970年代末长江中下游夏季降水年代际转型的影响,使用全球气候模式（GFDL—AM2）,对硫酸盐直接气候效应进行了模拟。结果表明,硫酸盐气溶胶增长引起的降水年代际变化与观测到的降水转型有很好的时空一致性;观测中包括副热带高压西伸南移、中国东部近地面异常北风等夏季风年代际减弱信号以及对应的垂直温度、上升运动分布等均能很好地被模式再现。机制上,硫酸盐气溶胶通过引起负辐射强迫,造成中国中东部的大部分地区地面到对流层中层降温,海陆热力对比减小,使东亚夏季风减弱,雨带容易在长江中下游停留,从而导致该区域降水增多。于是,硫酸盐气溶胶增多对长江中下游降水年代际转型有重要贡献。     

Simulating net carbon budget of forest ecosystems and its response to climate change in northeastern China using improved FORCCHN

As dominant biomes,forests play an important and indispensable role in adjusting the global carbon balance under climate change.Therefore,there are scientific and political implications in investigating the carbon budget of forest ecosystems and its response to climate change.Here we synthesized the most recent research progresses on the carbon cycle in terrestrial ecosystems,and applied an individual-based forest ecosystem carbon budget model for China(FORCCHN) to simulate the dynamics of the carbon fluxes of forest ecosystems in the northeastern China.The FORCCHN model was further improved and applied through adding variables and modules of precipitation(rainfall and snowfall) interception by tree crown,understory plants and litter.The results showed that the optimized FORCCHN model had a good performance in simulating the carbon budget of forest ecosystems in the northeastern China.From 1981 to 2002,the forests played a positive role in absorbing carbon dioxide.However,the capability of forest carbon sequestration had been gradually declining during the the same period.As for the average spatial distri-bution of net carbon budget,a majority of the regions were carbon sinks.Several scattered areas in the Heilongjiang Province and the Liaoning Province were identified as carbon sources.The net carbon budget was apparently more sensitive to an increase of air temperature than change of precipitation.     

Estimation of regional evapotranspiration in alpine area and its response to land use change: A case study in Three-River Headwaters region of Qinghai-Tibet Plateau, China

Three-River Headwaters(TRH) region involved in this paper refers to the source region of the Changjiang(Yangtze) River,the Huanghe(Yellow) River and the Lancang River in China.Taking the TRH region of the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau as a case,the annual evapotranspiration(ET) model developed by Zhang et al.(2001) was applied to evaluate mean annual ET in the alpine area,and the response of annual ET to land use change was analyzed.The plant-available water coefficient(w) of Zhang’s model was revised by using vegetation-temperature condition index(VTCI) before annual ET was calculated in alpine area.The future land use scenario,an input of ET model,was spatially simulated by using the conversion of land use and its effects at small regional extent(CLUE-S) to study the response of ET to land use change.Results show that the relative errors between the simulated ET and that calculated by using water balance equation were 3.81% and the index of agreement was 0.69.This indicates that Zhang’s ET model based on revised plant-available water coefficient is a scientific and practical tool to estimate the annual ET in the alpine area.The annual ET in 2000 in the study area was 221.2 mm,11.6 mm more than that in 1980.Average annual ET decreased from southeast to northwest,but the change of annual ET between 1980 and 2000 increased from southeast to northwest.As a vast and sparsely populated area,the population in the TRH region was extremely unbalanced and land use change was concentrated in very small regions.Thus,land use change had little effect on total annual ET in the study area but a great impact on its spatial distribution,and the effect of land use change on ET decreased with increasing precipitation.ET was most sensitive to the interconversion between forest and unused land,and was least sensitive to the interconversion between cropland and low-covered grassland.     

RESPONSES OF WETLAND ECO-SECURITY TO LAND USE CHANGE IN WESTERN JILIN PROVINCE, CHINA

1IN TR O D U C TIO NEco-security is the state in w hich the resources,envi-ronm entand ecosystem s thatconcern people are secure(M Aetal.,2004;SH Ietal.,2004).O therw ise,w e calliteco-security problem or ecologicalrisk.The eco-se-curity isdraw ing the in…     

Quantitative Assessment of Impacts of Regional Climate and Human Activities on Saline-alkali Land Changes:A Case Study of Qian'an County,Jilin Province

Interdecadal and interannual variations of saline-alkali land area in Qian′an County, Jilin Province, China were comprehensively analyzed in this paper by means of satellite remote sensing interpretation, field flux observations and regional climate diagnosis.The results show that on the interannual scale, the impact of climate factors accounts for 71.6% of the total variation of the saline-alkali land area, and that of human activities accounts for 28.4%.Therefore the impact of climate factors is obviously...     

Empirical Analysis of City Contact in Zhujiang （Pearl） River Delta,China

In traditional urban geography, city contact research is a classic study element in city research. In general, researchers use the traditional gravity model to characterize the contacts that exist between two cities. The traditional gravity model assumes ideal condi- tions, but these preconditions and their results often do not exist in realistic conditions. Thus, we used a modified gravity model to char- acterize the city contacts within a specific region. This model considers factors such as intercity complementarities, government inter- vention, and the diversity of the transportation infrastructure which is characterized as the transportation distance instead of the tradi- tional Euclidean distance. We applied this model to an empirical study of city contact in the Zhujiang （Pearl） River Delta （PRD） of China. The regression results indicated that the modified gravity model could measure city contact more accurately and comprehen- sively than the traditional gravity model, i.e., it yielded a higher adjusted R2 value （0.379） than the traditional gravity model result （0.259）. Our study also suggests that, in addition to urban-regional and metropolitan development, the complementarities of the basic functions of cities at the administrative and market levels, as well as the corporeal and immaterial levels, play very significant roles in the characterization of city contact. Given the complexity of city contact, it will be necessary to consider more relevant influential fac- tors in the modified gravity model to characterize the features of city contact in the future.     

Boundary shift of potential suitable agricultural area in farming-grazing transitional zone in Northeastern China under background of climate change during 20th century

Climate change affected the agricultural expansion and the formation of farming-grazing transitional patterns during historical periods. This study analyzed the possible range of the boundary shift of the potential suitable agriculture area in the farming-grazing transitional zone in the northeastern China during the 20th century. Based on modem weather data, 1 km-resolution land cover data, historical climatic time series, and estimation by using similar historical climatic scenes, the following was concluded： 1） The climate conditions of suitable agriculture areas in the farming-grazing transitional zone in the northeastern China between 1971 and 2000 required an average annual temperature above 1℃ or ≥ 0℃ accumulated temperature above 2500℃-2700℃, and annual precipitation above 350 mm. 2） The northern boundary of the potential suitable agriculture area during the relatively warmer period of 1890-1910 was approximately located at the position of the 1961-2000 area. The northern boundary shifted back to the south by 75 km on average during the colder period of the earlier 20th century, whereas during the modem warm period of the 1990s, the area shifted north by 100 km on average. 3） The western and eastern boundaries of the suitable agricul~re area during the heaviest drought periods between 1920s and 1930s had shifted northeast by 250 km and 125 km, respectively, contrasting to the boundaries of 1951-2008. For the wettest period, that is, the 1890s to the 1910s, the shift of western and eastern boundaries was to the southwest by 125 km and 200 km, respectively, compared with that in the 1951-2008 period. This study serves as a reference for identifying a climatically sensitive area and planning future land use and agricultural production in the study area.     

Responses of river runoff to climate change based on nonlinear mixed regression model in Chaohe River Basin of Hebei Province,China

Taking the nonlinear nature of runoff system into account,and combining auto-regression method and multi-regression method,a Nonlinear Mixed Regression Model (NMR) was established to analyze the impact of temperature and precipitation changes on annual river runoff process. The model was calibrated and verified by using BP neural network with observed meteorological and runoff data from Daiying Hydrological Station in the Chaohe River of Hebei Province in 1956–2000. Compared with auto-regression model,linear multi-regression model and linear mixed regression model,NMR can improve forecasting precision remarkably. Therefore,the simulation of climate change scenarios was carried out by NMR. The results show that the nonlinear mixed regression model can simulate annual river runoff well.