山西省原平市神经管畸形时空分析

神经管畸形是发生于中枢神经系统的一种先天性异常,在所有的新生儿出生缺陷中所占比例较高。在我国,作为矿业大省的山西,神经管畸形最为严重,原平市又是山西省出生缺陷的高发市之一。本文利用山西省原平市2007-2012年的神经管畸形病例资料,基于贝叶斯理论的时空建模方法,综合考虑时间组分和时空交互组分,对神经管畸形的时空规律进行研究。研究识别了研究区内疾病发生的热点区域、冷点区域、温点区域,并对这些区域随时间的变化趋势进行了分析。研究发现,原平市18个乡镇中有1个热点区域、17个温点区域,整体发病率较高;原平市神经管畸形整体上随时间变化呈缓慢下降趋势,但该趋势并不明显;1个热点区域疾病风险下降趋势慢于整体趋势,4个温点区域疾病风险下降趋势快于整体趋势,13个温点区域疾病风险时间变化趋势与整体趋势趋同。本文识别了山西省原平市神经管畸形发病的时间趋势和空间趋势,可以揭示神经管畸形潜在的风险因子或控制措施供进一步流行病学研究,也可以为公共卫生部门制定及时有效的防治控制措施提供一定的科学参考。     

2008-2018年中国手足口病时空分异特征

手足口病是一种在婴幼儿中多发的常见传染病,对儿童的身体健康具有重要影响.为揭示我国手足口病的时空分异特征,为手足口病的防控提供科学依据,本文选取自2008年手足口病被列为丙类传染病以来至2018年中国手足口病发病率为研究数据,运用全局莫兰指数、Getis-Ord Gi*、新兴时空热点分析和标准差椭圆等空间统计方法对中国...     

Soil erosion and its basic characteristics at karst rocky-desertified land consolidation area: A case study at Muzhe Village of Xichou County in Southeast Yunnan,China

Xichou County of Wenshan Zhuang and Miao Autonomous Prefecture in southeast Yunnan is one of the karst mountainous areas in southwest China showing typical rock desertification. During this study, we set up three soil erosion contrast test spots at Muzhe Village, Benggu Township, Xichou County, which was the birthplace of the Xichou rock-desertified land consolidation mode. The three spots included the terrace land spot (already consolidated land), sloping land spot (unconsolidated sloping land under rock desertification), and standard runoff spot (bare land spot). In 2007, a whole-year complete observation was conducted during the rainy season and "rainfall-erosion" data were obtained for 32 times. Our analysis showed that during the entire observation period, the number of the rainfalls that led to soil erosion accounted for 34.04% of the number of all rainfalls and the amount of the rainfalls that led to soil erosion accounted for 84.17% of the total amount of all rainfalls. The average erosive rainfall standard in the three test spots was 11.0 mm, slightly higher than the 10 mm standard that has been adopted all over China, but lower than the 12.7 mm standard of the US and the 13.0 mm standard of Japan. According to single-factor analysis, the soil loss in the sloping land spot (L2) and that in the bare land spot (L3) are correlated to certain extent to many other factors, including the single precipitation (P), rainfall intensity during the maximum ten minutes (I10), rainfall intensity during the maximum 20 minutes (I20), rainfall intensity during the maximum 30 minutes (I30), rainfall intensity during the maximum 40 minutes (I40), and rainfall intensity during the maximum 60 minutes (I60). Among these factors, they are of the highest relativity with I60. According to double-factor analysis, both L2 and L3 are of good relativity with P and I60. According to multi-factor analysis, L2 and L3 are also of good relativity with seven rainfall indexes, namely, P, Ia (average rainfall intensity), I10, I20, I30, I40, and I60, with their related coefficient R reaching 0.906 and 0.914, respectively. The annual soil losses in the three test spots are widely different: 1030.70 t/km2·a in the terrace land spot, which indicates a low-level erosion; 12913.22 t/km2·a in the sloping land spot (unconsolidated spot), some 12.5 times than that in the terrace land spot, which indicates an ultra-high-level erosion; and 19511.67 t/km2·a in the bare land spot, some 18.9 times than that in terrace land spot, indicating an acute erosion. These figures fully show that the Xichou rock-desertified land consolidation mode plays a significant role in soil conservation.     

政府严控期我国地级市COVID-19疫情的时空集聚、演变及自相关效应研究

突发性重大公共传染性疫情在地级城市层面政府严格防控时期的时空演变特征能够有效反应我国综合应急防控能力.基于中国2020年1月24日-3月5日312个城市的COVID-19累计确诊数、现有确诊数、治愈数等统计数据,采用ESDA、优化的热点分析、空间马尔科夫链、空间面板数据模型等方法分析了政府严控期COVID-19疫情在3...     

融合用户特征与群体智慧的多目标旅游线路推荐方法

针对旅游线路推荐过程中的数据稀疏与冷启动问题,本文提出了一种融合用户特征与群体智慧的多目标旅游线路推荐方法。首先,通过携程网、望路行程、百度指数等网站获取景点信息与对应的群体智慧数据,包括景点的位置、票价,用户评论、评分、浏览数据等;其次,结合用户特征与群体智慧数据构建景点对不同特征用户的综合吸引力并计算旅游线路吸引力指数;最后,定义旅游线路推荐多目标优化函数并利用多目标遗传算法NSGA2生成线路推荐列表。相较于传统旅游线路推荐方法,本文所提出的方法充分考虑了用户实际需求（消费侧）与景点吸引力（供给侧）,使得用户能够以较少的时间开销,尽可能多地游览热门景点。同时,推荐过程中根据用户的性别、年龄、出行方式、出行时间对用户群体进行划分,使得推荐准确性更高。实验结果表明,该方法考虑的因子可以有效提高用户在路线规划过程中的满意度,所推荐的旅游线路不仅具有更高的综合吸引力指数,还能够有效减少路程时间。此外,推荐结果也更加具有多样性,有助于推动智能化旅游线路推荐的发展。     

基于多源数据融合的山地型旅游区游客时空行为研究

随着旅游者对休闲娱乐类旅游需求的不断增加,山地型旅游区已成为最受欢迎的旅游目的地之一,利用新兴且高效的轨迹记录方式挖掘山地型旅游区游客在小尺度范围内动态的时空行为特征和制约因素,对旅游区线路设计和旅游产品优化尤为重要,也将为山地型旅游区的深化发展和科学管理提供建议。本文以湖北省恩施州恩施大峡谷为案例地,基于“六只脚”平台的GNSS轨迹及位置照片数据,结合GIS在线地图绘制的景区路网和从BigMap平台获取的POI数据,选择GNSS轨迹栅格化的概念模式解析出恩施大峡谷游客轨迹的时空行为特征,尝试探讨与其他类别旅游区时空行为特征的差异,从而总结出山地型旅游区的行为特征,并通过网络点评数据和游记文本等网络文本挖掘行为特征形成的影响因素。研究表明：(1)月份和季相层面,游客行为5月游客量处于峰值,节日效应明显,短假期效应较强;淡旺季游客行为轨迹呈非集聚性,旺季游客量主要受气候条件影响呈不稳定态势;(2)游客行为轨迹于11:00—14:00游客量达到顶峰,日内结束时间相对较早,且兴趣点选择偏向知名度高的七星寨景区;(3)空间分布特征层面,受时空因素控制,单一路径景区轨迹集中度较强;(4)不同性别...     

Carbon emission trends of manufacturing and influencing factors in Jilin Province,China

This paper constructed a carbon emission identity based on five factors: industrial activity, industrial structure, energy intensity, energy mix and carbon emission parameter, and analyzed manufacturing carbon emission trends in Jilin Province at subdivided industrial level through Log-Mean Divisia Index(LMDI) method. Results showed that manufacturing carbon emissions of Jilin Province increased 1.304 × 107 t by 66% between 2004 and 2010. However, 2012 was a remarkable year in which carbon emissions decreased compared with 2011, the first fall since 2004. Industrial activity was the most important factor for the increase of carbon emissions, while energy intensity had the greatest impact on inhibiting carbon emission growth. Despite the impact of industrial structure on carbon emissions fluctuated, its overall trend inhibited carbon emission growth. Further, influences of industrial structure became gradually stronger and surpassed energy intensity in the period 2009–2010. These results conclude that reducing energy intensity is still the main way for carbon emission reduction in Jilin Province, but industrial structure can not be ignored and it has great potential. Based on the analyses, the way of manufacturing industrial structure adjustment for Jilin Province is put forward.     

Retrieval of total suspended matters using field spectral data in Shitoukoumen Reservoir, Jilin Province, Northeast China

From August to October in 2006, three times of field spectral measurements with a Field Spec FR spectroradiometer (Analytical Spectral Devices, Inc., USA) were carried out in Shitoukoumen Reservoir, Jilin Province, Northeast China. Owing to the serious soil and water loss in the upstream, reflectance curves of the reservoir were characterized by high concentrations of total suspended matter (TSM). Extending the spectral analysis to 1200nm in the near-infrared band, this research revealed an obvious reflectance peak around 1070nm which was caused by the strong backscattering of high TSM. The method of partial least squares (PLS) regression was applied to retrieving the TSM. Reflectance in two spectral bands, i.e., 675-948nm and 1029-1105nm, were used as variables to develop PLS models. Traditional linear regression, first derivative model and logarithmic model were also used for the comparison of different models. Results showed that the PLS model based on Rrs(675)-Rrs(948) gave out best results with high precision and stability. Although the PLS model based on Rrs(1029)-Rrs(1105) did not have an outstanding performance due to lots of noise, the reflectance peak in the near-infrared band was an important TSM feature and its efficient exploitation would have a eunsiderable significance in TSM remote sensing.     

SR-XRF analysis of Polytrichum in the Fildes Peninsula,Antarctica

In order to study the element contents and distribution of various mosses collected in the Antarctica, we analyzed the heavy elements of 3 species of Polytri-chum in the Fildes Peninsula, P. alpinum, P. juniperinum and P. alpestre, by synchrotron radiation X-ray fluorescence ( SR-XRF). The result shows that the elements, such as K, Ca, Mn, Fe, Cu, Zn and Sr, are nearly the same in Potytrichum. The peak intensity of K is higher than that of Ca, and the peak intensity of Ca is higher than that of Fe in P. alpinum. In P. juniperinum, the peak intensity of K is higher than that of Ca, and the peak intensity of Ca is close to that of Fe. The peak intensity of K is nearly equal to those of Ca and Fe in P. alpestre. Therefore, the habitats of 3 species of Polytrichum are similar in the Fildes Peninsula. By XRF analyzing of different parts of P. alpestre, we found that the peak intensities of relative concentration of elements are obviously different. The peak intensity of K in apical-bud is the highest in orga     

Relationships between river water quality and landscape factors in Haihe River Basin,China: Implications for environmental management

River water plays a key role in human health, and in social and economic development, and is often affected by both natural factors and human activities. An in-depth understanding of the role of these factors can help in developing an effective catchment management strategy to protect precious water resources. This study analyzed river water quality, patterns of terrestrial and riparian ecosystems, intensity of agricultural activities, industrial structure, and spatial distribution of pollutant emissions in the Haihe River Basin in China for the year of 2010, identifying the variables that have the greatest impact on river water quality. The area percentage of farmland in study area, the percentage of natural vegetation cover in the 1000-m riparian zone, rural population density, industrial Gross Domestic Product (GDP)/km², and industrial amino nitrogen emissions were all significantly correlated with river water quality (P < 0.05). Farming had the largest impact on river water quality, explaining 43.0% of the water quality variance, followed by the coverage of natural vegetation in the 1000-m riparian zone, which explained 36.2% of the water quality variance. Industrial amino nitrogen emissions intensity and rural population density explained 31.6% and 31.4% of the water quality variance, respectively, while industrial GDP/km² explained 26.6%. Together, these five indicators explained 67.3% of the total variance in water quality. Consequently, water environmental management of the Haihe River Basin should focus on adjusting agricultural activities, conserving riparian vegetation, and reducing industrial pollutant emissions by optimizing industrial structure. The results demonstrate how human activities drive the spatial pattern changes of river water quality, and they can provide reference for developing land use guidelines and for prioritizing management practices to maintain stream water quality in a large river basin.     

福州市地表温度热点及时空变化分析

中国作为世界第一大发展中国家,近年来城镇化发展迅速,大量自然地表转化为人工地表,从而引起了一系列环境问题,其中以城市热岛问题最为显著。因此如何缓解因城市化进程的加快引起的城市热岛效应已成为热门研究方向。为精确分析城市空间格局对热集聚的影响,本研究利用2000年5月4日的Landsat ETM+和2016年7月27日获取的Landsat OLI两期遥感影像,获取福州市的土地覆盖信息并进行精度验证。在地表温度（Land Surface Temperature, LST）反演基础上通过热点分析（Getis-Ord Gi*）,并结合不透水面（Impervious Surface Area, ISA）信息来研究城市化进程中福州市16 年来 LST的变化特性,空间集聚特性及其产生的尺度效应。热点分析结果显示：① 通过分析福州市内各地和热点中心的距离与LST的关系可较好地反映空间热聚集。2000 年在距热点中心0.97、1.03、0.95 km范围内热聚集明显;2016 年则增长到分别在距热点中心半径1.89、2.01、2.10、2.05、2.13 km范围内热集聚显著且热点区数量也从3 个增加至5 个。热集聚区（热点区和较热区）总面积在此期间从15.7%增至47.3%;② 由于热点图中的热点区和冷点区的形成不单取决于LST的高低,因此热点分析与空间自相关分析方法相比,能更直观地分析土地覆盖变化对LST的影响,了解城市内部热强度变化的细节。本研究采用的热点分析方法可用于城市环境保护与规划,将来还可作为城市土地规划与热环境影响的分析依据。同时可利用热点分析图模拟城市微气候,估算城市绿地降温程度等。此外,未来还可基于此进一步探讨更多时相以及不同城市的对比分析,特别是对不同城市类型如带状城市,多中心城市及中心城市等的研究。     

哈萨克斯坦Marsel探区下石炭统致密气资源潜力及勘探前景

哈萨克斯坦Marsel探区下石炭统历经多年勘探未取得重大发现,资源发现结果与评价的资源量极不匹配。为重新认识该区致密气资源潜力,利用高频层序、测井、试油、地震等资料,对下石炭统烃源岩分布、储层岩性及物性、含气饱和度等地质参数进行了重新评价,采用蒙特卡洛模拟法和小面元容积法估算了下石炭统致密气资源量,并评价了资源的平面分布特征。结果表明,Marsel探区下石炭统谢尔普霍夫阶（C₁sr）和维宪阶（C₁v）有效烃源岩的分布面积可达1×104 km2,探区北部烃源岩w（TOC）普遍在1.2%以上,南部基本在0.2%~1.2%之间,均处于生气高峰阶段;储层主要为礁滩相碳酸盐岩,平均孔隙度约6%,渗透率多在10×10-3 μm2以下,与烃源岩互层接触,可形成大面积连续分布的致密气聚集。蒙特卡洛模拟法估算Marsel探区下石炭统致密气90%、50%、10%概率下的可采资源量分别为1 551亿,4 001亿,8 753亿m3。小面元容积法评价结果显示,Marsel探区下石炭统致密气分布面积达6 000 km2,可采资源量4 323亿m3,平均可采资源丰度为0.7亿m3/km2,属于特低丰度致密气资源,但北部ASSA、Terekhov、KNDK等"甜点区"可采资源丰度在0.8~2.5亿m3/km2。通过借鉴水平井体积压裂开采经验,优选"甜点"钻探提高单井产量,Marsel探区下石炭统仍有望实现效益开发。      

Regional Characteristics and Causes of Haze Events in Northeast China

Northeast China experiences severe atmospheric pollution, with an increasing occurrence of heavy haze episodes. However, the underlying forces driving haze formation during different seasons are poorly understood. In this study, we explored the spatio-temporal characteristics and causes of haze events in Northeast China by combining a range of data sources(i.e., ground monitoring, satellite-based products, and meteorological products). It was found that the ‘Shenyang-Changchun-Harbin(SCH)'city belt was the most polluted area in the region on an annual scale. The spatial distribution of air quality index(AQI) values had a clear seasonality, with the worst pollution occurring in winter, an approximately oval-shaped polluted area around western Jilin Province in spring, and the best air quality occurring in summer and most of the autumn. The three periods that typically experienced intense haze events were Period I from mid-October to mid-November(i.e., late autumn and early winter), Period II from late-December to February(i.e., the coldest time in winter), and Period III from April to mid-May(i.e., spring). During Period I, strong PM_(2.5) emissions from seasonal crop residue burning and coal burning for winter heating were the dominant reasons for the occurrence of extreme haze events(AQI 300). Period II had frequent heavy haze events(200 AQI 300) in the coldest months of January and February, which were due to high PM_(2.5) emissions from coal burning and vehicle fuel consumption, a lower atmospheric boundary layer, and stagnant atmospheric conditions. Haze events in Period III, with high PM_(10) concentrations, were primarily caused by the regional transportation of windblown dust from degraded grassland in central Inner Mongolia and bare soil in western Jilin Province. Local agricultural tilling could also release PM_(10) and enhance the levels of windblown dust from tilled soil. Better control of coal burning, fuel consumption, and crop residue burning in winter and autumn is urgently needed to address the haze problem in Northeast China.     

Metabolomic Fingerprint of the Model Ciliate,Tetrahymena thermophila Determined by Untargeted Profiling Using Gas Chromatography-Mass Spectrometry

The ciliate Tetrahymena is a valuable model organism in the studies of ecotoxicology. Changes in intracellular metabolism are caused by exogenous chemicals in the environment. Intracellular metabolite changes signify toxic effects and can be monitored by metabolomics analysis. In this work, a protocol for the GC-MS-based metabolomic analysis of Tetrahymena was established. Different extraction solvents showed divergent effects on the metabolomic analysis of Tetrahymena thermophila. The peak intensity of metabolites detected in the samples of extraction solvent Formula 1(F1) was the strongest and stable, while 61 metabolites were identified. Formula 1 showed an excellent extraction performance for carbohydrates. In the samples of extraction solvent Formula 2(F2), 66 metabolites were characterized, and fatty acid metabolites were extracted. Meanwhile, 57 and 58 metabolites were characterized in the extraction with Formula 3(F3) and Formula 4(F4), respectively. However, the peak intensity of the metabolites was low, and the metabolites were unstable. These results indicated that different extraction solvents substantially affected the detected coverage and peak intensity of intracellular metabolites. A total of 74 metabolites(19 amino acids, 11 organic acids, 2 inorganic acids, 11 fatty acids, 11 carbohydrates, 3 glycosides, 4 alcohols, 6 amines, and 7 other compounds) were identified in all experimental groups. Among these metabolites, amino acids, glycerol, myoinositol, and unsaturated fatty acids may become potential biomarkers of metabolite set enrichment analysis for detecting the ability of T. thermophila against environmental stresses.     

Influence of the Kuroshio on hydrography and hydrometeorology in the East China Sea near-shore region

The aim of the study was 1)to determine the relation between the Kuroshio meander and the intensity of the subtropic high pressure over the Pacific Ocean, and then to obtain statistical validity for the observational conclusion that the occurrence time of the Kuroshio meander leads the time of strengthened C-circulation of Europe by one or more years; 2) to develop a method to predict the occurrence time of flood or drought periods in the Changjiang River Valley from the occurrence time of the Kuroshio meander, since there is a close relation between the occurrence time of the drought or flood periods in the Changjiang River Valley and the occurrence time of the strong or weak periods of C-circulation of Europe; and 3) to develop a logical explanation verifiable by remote sensing technique and other means that the warm species phytoplanktons collected recently in the Jiaozhou Bay of Shandong Peninsula in China were carried there by a new warm current branch of the Kuroshio in the East China Sea. This paper was presented at the Conference on Western Pacific Circulation Influence on the China Seas in Qingdao, 1987, and approved for publishing as a monograph.     

Spatial-temporal Dynamics and Driving Forces of Land Development Intensity in the Western China from 2000 to 2015

The change in land development intensity is an important perspective to reflect the variation in regional social and economic development and spatial differentiation. In this paper, spatial statistical analysis, Ordinary Least Squares(OLS), and Geographically weighted regression(GWR) methods are used to systematically analyse the spatial-temporal characteristics and driving forces of land development intensity for 131 spatial units in the western China from 2000 to 2015. The findings of the study are as follows: 1) The land development intensity in the western China has been increasing rapidly. From 2000 to 2015, land development intensity increased by 3.4 times on average. 2) The hotspot areas have shifted from central Inner Mongolia, northern Shaanxi and the Beibu Gulf of Guangxi to the Guanzhong Plain and the Chengdu-Chongqing urban agglomeration. The areas of cold spots were mainly concentrated in the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau, Yunnan, and Xinjiang. 3) Investment intensity and the natural environment have always been the main drivers of land development intensity in the western China. Investment played a powerful role in promoting land development intensity, while the natural and ecological environment distinctly constrained such development. The effect of the economic factors on land development intensity in the western China has changed, which is reflected in the driving factor of construction land development shifting from economic growth in 2000 to economic structure, especially industrial structure, in 2015.     

北方农牧交错区干旱特征变化及其对植被总初级生产力的影响

北方农牧交错区地处半湿润/半干旱生态脆弱过渡带,干旱是影响该区植被生产力的关键因素之一。探究干旱对植被总初级生产力的影响,对深刻理解气候变化下生态系统生产力变化响应特征及优化区域碳水循环具有重要意义。为了更好地了解水分限制区不同干旱特征对GPP影响,本研究以北方农牧交错区为例,基于长时间序列的标准化降水蒸散发指数(SPEI3,1900—2020年)和植被总初级生产力(GPP,1982—2018年)等数据,首先采用小波分析明确SPEI3与GPP强相关周期,在此基础上利用游程理论识别干旱特征,进而分析了北方农牧交错区干旱特征与GPP的变化趋势,最后厘定了不同干旱特征对GPP的影响。结果表明:(1) 1982—2018年北方农牧交错区SPEI3与GPP在半年周期和年周期存在显著相关关系,滞后效应随时间变化而变化;年际分析能够减弱滞后效应对SPEI3与GPP相关性的影响;(2) 1900—2020年北方农牧交错区干旱历时、干旱烈度和烈度峰值均呈现显著增加趋势,干旱烈度随着干旱历时和烈度峰值的增加而加剧,干旱特征高值区往往具有更强的增加趋势;(3) 1982—2018年北方农牧交错区GPP总体呈...     

青海门源6.4级地震兰新高铁沿线强震数据分析

基于2016-01-21青海门源6.4级地震,通过分析高铁沿线台站强震数据的峰值加速度、峰值速度和仪器烈度值表明,将实时仪器烈度值作为高铁地震监控系统的报警参数受场地条件影响较小。利用沿线台站近高铁和远高铁监测点的谱比值来解释局部复杂场地条件对峰值加速度的影响,通过比较台站计算与设计的反应谱来预测高铁地震台站附近的桥梁震害情况。     

Effects of spectral composition,photoperiod and light intensity on the gonadal development of Atlantic salmon Salmo salar in recirculating aquaculture systems (RAS)

Artificial lighting regimes have been successfully used to inhibit sexual maturity of Atlantic salmon in confinement.However,when these operations are applied in commercial recirculating aquaculture systems(RAS) using standard lighting technology,sexual maturation is not suppressed.In this study,an L_9(3~3) orthogonal design was used to determine the effects of three factors(spectral composition,photoperiod,and light intensity) on the gonadal development of Atlantic salmon in RAS.We demonstrated that the photoperiod at the tested levels had a much greater effect on the gonadosomatic index and female Fulton condition factor than spectral composition and light intensity.The photoperiod had a significant effect on the secretion of sex steroids and melatonin(P0.05),and a short photoperiod delayed sex steroid and melatonin level increases.The three test factors had no significant effects on the survival rate,specific growth rate,relative weight gain,and male Fulton condition factor(P0.05).The optimum lighting levels in female and male Atlantic salmon were LD 8:16,455 nm(or 625 nm),8.60 W/m~2;and LD 8:16,8.60 W/m~2,455 nm respectively.These conditions not only delayed gonadal development,but also had no negative effects on Atlantic salmon growth in RAS.These results demonstrate that a combination of spectral composition,photoperiod and light intensity is effective at delaying the gonadal development of both male and female salmon in RAS.     

基于PCA-GWR方法的村级贫困时空格局及致贫因素分析

探究贫困的时空变化及识别致贫因素,可以为扶贫政策的制定和实施提供参考。贫困是由多种因素造成的,地理加权回归（GWR）可以分析各因素对贫困的影响在空间上的差异,但致贫因素之间存在较强的相关性会导致多重共线性问题。本文探索了基于主成分的地理加权回归方法（PCA-GWR）,结合自然、经济和社会属性对贫困空间格局特征进行因素分析;为探究贫困的时空变化规律,探索用全局Moran's I指数、局部G系数对村级贫困发生率的时空格局变化特征进行分析。并以江西省永新县为研究区为实验区进行分析。研究结果表明：① PCA-GWR模型中变量的方差膨胀因子（VIF）值明显低于GWR模型变量的VIF值,PCA-GWR模型有效地解决了GWR模型中存在的多重共线性问题;② 永新县贫困格局分布与地形、植被分布等自然因素和低学历、缺乏劳动力、疾病等乡村主体自生发展能力相关,且每种影响因素与贫困发生率的关系呈现出不同的空间模式;③ 2013—2017年永新县贫困发生率从11.27%下降至0.97%,呈现出逐年下降趋势,且村间贫困差距逐年缩小,其中2013—2015年贫困发生率分布西高东低,2016年和2017年整体值较低;④ 从空间相关性来看：全局上,2013—2016年表现出空间正相关,2017年呈现随机分布;局部上,2013—2016年的冷、热点分布变化不大,冷点分布在中部,热点聚集在西南部,2017年热点分布在南部,冷点零星分布于北部地区。研究结果可为政府扶贫政策的制定提供参考。