Upwellings in Lake Baikal

Based on shipboard and satellite observations, the characteristics of upwelling in Lake Baikal in the period of direct temperature stratification have been determined for the first time. Coastal upwellings appear annually under the effect of run-down and alongshore winds and are traced along the coast to a distance of up to 60–100 km and up to 250 km in North Baikal. Analogous to the way it occurs in seas, water rises from the depths of 100–200 m (350 m as a maximum) at the velocity of 0.1 × 10⁻²−6.5 × 10⁻² cm/s. Divergence in the field of intràbasin cyclonic macrovortices produces upwelling in the Baikal pelagic zone and downwelling in the vicinity of shores; this lasts from 7 to 88 days and covers the depth interval of 80–300 m in August and up to 400–800 m in early-mid November. The area of upwellings occupies up to 20–60% of the separate basins of the lake. Vertical circulation of water in the field of pelagic upwellings leads to intensification of coastal currents and to formation of the thermobar with a heat inert zone in the central part of the lake in November, and this thermobar is not observed in other lakes, at that.     

Estimation of radon as an earthquake precursor: A neural network approach

An artificial neural networks (ANN) approach combined with Fourier Transform based selection of time period in the time series Radon Emission Data has been presented and shown to improve event prediction rates and reduce false alarms in Earthquake Event Identification over the traditional multiple linear regression techniques. The paper presents a neural networks system using radial basis function (RBF) network as an alternative to traditional statistical regression technique in isolating Radon Emission Anomaly caused by seismic activities. The RBF model has been developed to accept and predict earthquakes events based on a known data set of Radon Emanation, Metrological parameters and actual earthquake events. Subsequently, the model was tested and evaluated on a future data set and a prediction rate of 87.8%, if a reduced false alarm was achieved, the results obtained are better than the traditional techniques.     

Probabilistic neural network algorithm for using radon emanations as an earthquake precursor

The investigation throughout the world in past two decades provides evidence which indicate that significance variation of radon and other soil gases occur in association with major geophysical events such as earthquake. The traditional statistical algorithm includes regression to remove the effect of the meteorological parameters from the raw radon and anomalies are calculated either taking the periodicity in seasonal variations or periodicity computed using Fast Fourier Transform. In case of neural networks the regression step is avoided. A neural network model can be found which can learn the behavior of radon with respect to meteorological parameter in order that changing emission patterns may be adapted to by the model on its own. The output of this neural model is the estimated radon values. This estimated radon value is used to decide whether anomalous behavior of radon has occurred and a valid precursor may be identified. The neural network model developed using Radial Basis function network gave a prediction rate of 87.7%. The same was accompanied by huge false alarms. The present paper deals with improved neural network algorithm using Probabilistic Neural Networks that requires neither an explicit step of regression nor use of any specific period. This neural network model reduces the false alarms to zero and gave same prediction rate as RBF networks.     

Bottom temperature monitoring in Lake Baikal

We report results of bottom temperature monitoring of 2003–2004 in the deepwater South Baikal basin (Lake Baikal) near active gas-fluid methane vents at lake depths of 1020 and 1350 m. Sediments and water temperatures were measured using an autonomous temperature recorder designed at the Institute of Geophysics (Novosibirsk). Experiments implied short-duration recording and pioneering continuous 350 day-long monitoring near the Staryi vent. Measurements within a 1 m thick layer above and below the bottom showed notable variations in water (up to 0.07 °C) and sediment temperatures and in geothermal gradient. The long temperature records include a relatively steady period (mid-June 2003-early February 2004) with smooth temperature variations (especially in sediments) and two transient unsteady periods. The steady season is the best time for heat flow studies in the South Baikal basin. The 0.04–0.05 °C drop in bottom water temperature during the unsteady periods may result from intrusion of cold surface water. A positive temperature anomaly of ∼0.04 °C recorded in April 2003 may be caused, among other reasons, by active gas venting.     

Lipid Biomarkers of Bottom Sediments in Gusinoe Lake (Lake Baikal Basin) as Indicators for Lake Sedimentogenesis Paleoreconstruction

Doklady Earth Sciences - Small lakes, being less stable systems as compared to large lakes, are sensitive to climate variations and are characterized by high sedimentation rates, and thus, they...     

The Tsagan earthquake of 1862 on Lake Baikal revisited: a study of secondary coseismic soft-sediment deformation

Coseismic soft-sediment deformation has been studied by structural and tectononophysical methods in the Selenga Delta area shaken by the devastating M ～ 7.5 Tsagan earthquake in 1862. Among the documented deformation structures (seismites), clastic dikes are the most reliable paleoseismic indicators. The dikes have their sizes and extent showing proximity to the primary coseismic rupture zone and are closely associated with faults of different hierarchic levels. The Tsagan event occurred under SW–NE extension as motion on a stepped system of normal faults dipping at 300°–350°, ∠45°–75°.The amount of vertical motion measured against a reference layer in a trench reached 2.83 m, and the maximum dip displacement measured in a single fracture was 0.5 m. The earthquake was generated by the Delta Fault that dips at 60° on average to the northwest.The distribution of quantitative parameters of brittle and brittle-plastic deformation has been analyzed along two profiles, and two new parameters were introduced: indices of mean intensity (I) of clastic dikes and microdikes; the new parameters were calculated by specially developed equations. Summation of significant peaks in all parameters (SUM_spp) allowed contouring the zone of most intense soft-sediment deformation near Dubinino Village.Deformation mostly propagated in the NE–SW and N–S directions. The location of the 1862 Tsagan earthquake at 52.35° N and 106.67° E was inferred from the SUM_spp value taking into account the dip of the causative fault plane and the average origin depth of earthquakes in the Baikal rift. The approach we used is applicable to locating preinstrumental events.The recurrence of large earthquakes in the area of Proval Bay (Lake Baikal) has been estimated to be 1120–1230 years proceeding from alternating deformed and undeformed sediments in the sections, their thicknesses and deposition rates according to radiocarbon dating. The seismic activity has been associated with the same fault which can generate M ≥ 7 events.     

Climate change in Lake Baikal: diatom evidence in an area of continuous sedimentation

The presence of inhomogeneous sedimentation is acknowledged as being an important problem in palaeolimnological studies. Sediment records can be disturbed by erosional and redepositional events, which redeposit microfossils within a basin and may then lead to misinterpretations of fossil diatom assemblages. This study uses a combination of sedimentological tools, magnetic susceptibility measurements and high-resolution diatom analysis to show that a sediment core, BAIK80, taken in 345 m water depth from a shoulder region in the North Basin of Lake Baikal, is free of disturbances. Our results confirm that the sediment record is consistent and continuous for the uppermost sediment. Consequently, the fossil diatom data can be used to establish a continuous record of past climate variability over approximately the past 1300 years. Distinct changes occur in downcore abundances of endemic taxa Aulacoseira baicalensis and Cyclotella minuta, and principal components analysis (PCA) indicates a gradual transformation of taxa over the past 1300 years. These changes are likely to be related to climate, although definite links still have to be established. Received: 15 December 1998 / Accepted: 13 September 1999     

Mercury in the sedimentary deposits of Lake Baikal

Mercury distribution was examined in the sediments of Lake Baikal that were sampled within the scope of the Baikal Drilling International Project in 1996–1999. The Hg concentrations in the ancient sediments are close to those in the modern sediments with the exception of a few peak values, whose ages coincide with those of active volcanism in adjacent areas. Mercury was demonstrated to be contained in the sediments in the adsorbed Hg⁰ mode, predominantly in relation with organic matter. When the organic matter of the bottom sediments is decomposed in the course of lithification, Hg is retained in the sediments adsorbed on the residual organic matter, and the concentration of this element corresponds to its initial content in the bottom sediments during their accumulation. Mercury concentrations in lithologically distinct bottom sediments of Lake Baikal and its sediments as a whole depend on the climate. Sediments that were formed during warm periods of time contain more Hg than those produced during cold periods or glaciation. Periodical variations in the Hg concentrations in the bottom sediments of Lake Baikal reflect the variations in the contents of this element in the Earth’s atmosphere in the Late Cenozoic, which were, in turn, controlled by the climatic variations on the planet and, thus, can be used for detailed reconstructions of variations in the average global temperature near the planet’s surface.     

Variations of the cosmic ray fluxes as a possible earthquake precursor

Variations of the air pressure, cosmic ray fluxes, sunspot numbers, and interplanetary magnetic field in connection with strong earthquake occurrences are studied. The results of this investigation permits one to consider the variations of the cosmic rays as one of the possible cause of air pressure variations and one of the possible earthquake precursors.     

Climatic factors as risks of recent ecological changes in the shallow zone of Lake Baikal

Eutrophication processes have been recorded in many world’s freshwater reservoirs, which are sources of drinking water. More and more investigations show that global warming is the main natural factor that causes eutrophication. In recent years, signs of eutrophication have also been recorded in Lake Baikal containing 20% of the world’s freshwater reserves. Therefore, we performed the first comprehensive analysis of long-term changes in climatic parameters capable to provoke negative changes in the shallow zone. The largest number of anomalies of climatic indices has been recorded in the 21st century. Moreover, the current decade has been the most favorable for the emergence of negative processes in the lake (outbreak of the mass growth of algae and aquatic vegetation, rotting of their remains at the bottom and on the shores of the lake, changes in the structure and zoning of biocoenoses, etc.). The main natural conditions favoring the emergence of negative signs are elevated temperatures of the air and lake shore water, reduced amount of precipitation, reduced inflow of river waters into Baikal and lowering of its water level, low-water season, and weakening of wind currents, water exchange processes, and, as a result, water self-purification. In the period of continuing global warming, it is necessary to study the climate effect on the processes in the shallow zone and to carry out long-term monitoring for elucidation of recent and expected changes in the ecological state of Lake Baikal and for their valid interpretation.     

Seismicity and earthquake focal mechanisms in the Baikal rift zone

The seismicity of the Baikal rift zone is considered on the basis of instrumental and field observations. The spatial pattern of epicentres, the frequency of earthquakes and the relations between seismicity and the elements of fault tectonics are analyzed. The regional and local stress states in the crust of the Pribaikalye region, obtained from studying earthquake focal mechanisms for various energies are summarized.     

Active hydrate destabilization in Lake Baikal,Siberia?

ABSTRACT In this paper, we present new seismic and heat-flow data that show the base of the hydrate stability zone (BHSZ) in Lake Baikal to be locally characterized by abnormal variations in depth, with distinct regions of deeper-than-normal and regions of shallower-than-normal BHSZ. These variations are related to strong lateral variations in heat flow, and occur in close association with important rift-basin faults. Areas of shallow BHSZ are also characterized by the presence of several methane seeps and mud volcanoes at the lake floor. We infer that the seeps are the surface expression of escape pathways for overpressured fluids generated by the dissociation of pre-existing hydrates, in response to a thermal pulse caused by an upward flow of hydrothermal fluids towards the BHSZ. It thus seems that present-day hydrate dissociation in Lake Baikal is modulated by the tectonic activity in the rift rather than by – climatically controlled – changes in lake level or water temperature.