重庆地面最低气温年极值的渐近分布及参数估计

利用重庆 1951-1996 年间 46 年地面气温年极小值的记录,采用韦伯分布和耿贝尔分布分别进行拟合试验.通过统计推断和对比,找出重庆地面最低气温年极值遵循的最佳渐近分布--韦伯分布.     

成都地面最低气温年极值的渐近分布

利用成都１９３３～１９９２年间的地面最低气温年极值记录，采用韦伯分布和耿贝尔分布，分别对其进行了渐近分布拟合。通过统计推断，找出了成都地面最低气温年极值所遵循的最佳渐近分布——韦伯分布。     

成都地面风速年极值的4种分布函数拟合结果的比较

分别用Webukk分布，Gumbel分布，Pearson Ⅲ分布和对数正态分布拟合成都1993－1997年间地面风速年极大值的渐近分布，其结果表明Gumbel分布和对数正态分布拟合效果最好。     

重庆地面气温年极大值渐近分布的拟合试验

利用重庆1951—1996年间地面气温年极大值的记录，分别用韦伯分布、耿贝尔分布、皮尔逊Ⅲ型分布和对数正态分布进行拟合试验，通过统计推断比较，得出重庆地面气温年极大值遵循的渐进分布为韦伯分布和耿贝尔分布。     

成都地面气温与风速年极大值的渐近分布及参数估计

利用１９３３～１９９２年期间成都地面最高气温和地面最大风速年极值的记录，通过统计推断，找出了成都地面最高气温年极值和地面最大风速年极值遵循的渐近分布——Ｗｅｉｂｕｌ分布和Ｇｕｍｂｅｌ分布，并讨论了它们的参数估计方法。     

成都日降水量年极大值的渐近分布

利用1951－1999年成都日降水量年极大值的记录，通过统计推断，找出了成都日降水量年极大值遵循的渐近分布。讨论了两种分布－皮迩逊Ⅲ型分布、对数正态分布，并比较了它们的拟合效果，最后得出成都日降水量年极大值较好地遵循对数正态分布，并讨论了它们的参数估计方法。     

二维复合极值模型在暴雨多变量联合分布中的应用

为了更好地描述暴雨多变量特征,构建以GPD为边缘分布的泊松-二维Copula复合极值模型,并将其应用于成都温江站暴雨雨量和暴雨雨峰的联合概率分布计算,研究表明该模型:理论联合频率与经验联合频率吻合较好,能用于暴雨联合分布的计算;考虑了暴雨过程出现的频次,增加了概率模型的物理内涵,选取独立的暴雨过程极大值作为样本,克服了GPD阈值选取的随意性;可以推广应用于连续分布为其他的Copula函数的情形,具有广泛的应用前景。     

Characteristics of Spatial and Temporal Variations of Monthly Mean Surface Air Temperature over Qinghai-Tibet Plateau

1 Introduction The Qinghai-Tibet Plateau, known as the highest plateau with the most complex topography in the world, covers an area of more than 200km2, with a mean elevation of more than 4000m a.s.l. (Ye and Gao, 1979). Surrounded by the Earth’s highest mountains, such as the Himalayas, Pamir, Kunlun Mountains, the plateau plays a significant role in climate change in China even in the world, thus attracted great attention of researchers. Up to now, many achievements have been gained by…     

Interannual oscillation of meridional sea level wind and its impact on sea surface temperature in the South China Sea

Analysis of COADS data (1958–1987) showed that there is obviously interannual SST oscillation including QBO (Quasi-biennial oscillation) and quasi-3.5 year oscilation, etc., of the SCS (South China Sea), which is the response of the upper mixed layer of the sea to the impact of the East Asian Monsoon anomaly. Most SST anomalies appear in the central basin of the SCS. The phase-locked phenomena linking the SST annual cycle and interannual oscillation is an important characteristic of the SCS climate. There is not only SST response to atmospheric impact, but also feedback to the air. The authors put forward a scheme of regional air-sea interaction in winter time in the SCS. Project 49676276 supported by NSFC and also supported by FSEC.     

Co-variation of the surface wind speed and the sea surface temperature over mesoscale eddies in the Gulf Stream region:momentum vertical mixing aspect

The co-variation of surface wind speed and sea surface temperature(SST)over the Gulf Stream frontal region is investigated using high-resolution satellite measurements and atmospheric reanalysis data.Results show that the pattern of positive SST-surface wind speed correlations is anchored by strong SST gradient and marine atmospheric boundary layer(MABL)height front,with active warm and cold-ocean eddies around.The MABL has an obvious transitional structure along the strong SST front,with greater(lesser)heights over the north(south)side.The significant positive SST-surface wind-speed perturbation correlations are mostly found over both strong warm and cold eddies.The surface wind speed increases(decreases)about 0.32(0.41)m/s and the MABL elevates(drops)approximate 55(54)m per 1℃ of SST perturbation induced by warm(cold)eddies.The response of the surface wind speed to SST perturbations over the mesoscale eddies is mainly attributed to the momentum vertical mixing in the MABL,which is confirmed by the linear relationships between the downwind(cro sswind)SST gradient and wind divergence(curl).