Modulation of Intraseasonal (25–70 Day) Processes by theSuperimposed ENSO Cycle Across the Pacific Basin

Summary  Although variability is a fundamental aspect of the climate system, the interaction of different time scales of variability remains difficult to assess and verbalize. Two well-documented examples of tropical variability on different time scales are the El Ni?o/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO). Using the fifteen-year ECMWF Re-analysis (ERA) data archive and outgoing longwave radiation (OLR) data, some of the ENSO modulations of the intraseasonal MJO are examined. During El Ni˜o years, the MJO convection is able to propagate farther eastward into the central Pacific than it typically does during normal years. The corresponding intraseasonal circulation anomalies are similarly translated farther east. However, not all changes are this straight forward; for example, MJO convection is found to occur within westerly wind bursts during the Normal years, but somewhat ahead of the winds during El Ni˜o. ENSO-induced changes to the large-scale upper-tropospheric state provide different environments for outflow from MJO convection across the North Pacific. During the El Ni?o years, the eastward shift of the local Hadley circulation means that MJO convection must propagate farther east to reach an environment in which its meridional outflow can produce an appropriate Rossby wave source for the extension of the east Asian jet and subsequent midlatitude height falls. Received December 1, 1998     

THE INFLUENCE OF PERSISTENT ANOMALY OF MJO ON ENSO

In this study, two possible persistent anomalies of the Madden-Julian Oscillation mode (MJO) are found in the summer season (persistently Pacific active and Indian Ocean active), and an index is set to define the intensity of the two modes. They are proved to have high statistical correlations to the later ENSO events in the autumn and winter seasons: When persistent anomaly of MJO happens in the Pacific Ocean in summer, El Ni?o events are often induced during the autumn and winter seasons of that year. However, during the other MJO mode when the summer persistent anomaly of MJO occurs in the Indian Ocean, La Ni?a events often follow instead. The analysis of the atmospheric circulation field indicates that persistent anomaly of MJO can probably affect the entire Equatorial Pacific circulation, and results in wind stress anomalies. The wind stress anomalies could excite warm or cold water masses which propagate eastwards at the subsurface ocean. The accumulation of warm or cold subsurface water in the Equatorial Eastern Pacific Ocean may eventually lead to the formation of an ENSO.     

INITIATION MECHANISMS FOR A SUCCESSIVE MJO EVENT AND A PRIMARY MJO EVENT DURING BOREAL WINTER OF 2000-2001

Observed outgoing longwave radiation (OLR) and ERA-Interim reanalysis data were analyzed to reveal the initiation processes associated with a successive and a primary MJO event during 2000-2001. It was found that the initiation of the successive event was caused by anomalous ascending motion induced by low-level horizontal temperature advection. The anomalous ascending motion, together with horizontal moisture advection, moistened lower troposphere and led to an unstable stratification and triggered convection. The initiation of the primary MJO event, on the other hand, was caused by the accumulation of anomalous moisture associated with three low-frequency modes, a convectively coupled Kelvin wave (CCKW), an westward-propagating equatorial Rossby wave (ER) and a weak planetary-scale MJO mode. It is the merging of the low-level specific humidity anomalies of the three modes that led to the rapid setup of large-scale convectively unstable stratification and favored the development of the eastward-propagating planetary-scale MJO mode.     

Factors controlling the interannual variations of MJO intensity

The interannual variations of intensity of the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) during boreal winter are investigated by using the observed outgoing longwave radiation (OLR) and the reanalysis data of ECMWF and NCEP. The standard deviation of 20-80-day filtered OLR anomaly is used to measure the MJO intensity. The dominant spatial structure of the interannual variability is revealed by an EOF analysis of the MJO intensity field. It is found that the leading mode is associated with eastern Pacific type ENSO, whereas the second mode is related to central Pacific type ENSO. A simple atmospheric model is used to investigate the relative roles of background moisture and wind changes in affecting the overall strength of MJO. The numerical experiments indicate that the background moisture effect is dominant while the background wind change has a minor effect.     

Impacts of shortwave radiation forcing on ENSO: a study with a coupled tropical ocean-atmosphere model

 We describe a coupled tropical ocean-atmosphere model that represents a new class of models that fill the gap between anomaly coupled models and fully coupled general circulation models. Both the atmosphere and ocean are described by two and half layer primitive equation models, which emphasize the physical processes in the oceanic mixed layer and atmospheric boundary layer. Ocean and atmosphere are coupled through both momentum and heat flux exchanges without explicit flux correction. The coupled model, driven by solar radiation, reproduces a realistic annual cycle and El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO). In the presence of annual mean shortwave radiation forcing, the model exhibits an intrinsic mode of ENSO. The oscillation period depends on the mean forcing that determines the coupled mean state. A perpetual April (October) mean forcing prolongs (shortens) the oscillation period through weakening (enhancing) the mean upwelling and mean vertical temperature gradients. The annual cycle of the solar forcing is shown to have fundamental impacts on the behavior of ENSO cycles through establishing a coupled annual cycle that interacts with the ENSO mode. Due to the annual cycle solar forcing, the single spectral peak of the intrinsic ENSO mode becomes a double peak with a quasi-biennial and a low-frequency (4–5 years) component; the evolution of ENSO becomes phase-locked to the annual cycle; and the amplitude and frequency of ENSO become variable on an interdecadal time scale due to interactions of the mean state and the two ENSO components. The western Pacific monsoon (the annual shortwave radiation forcing in the western Pacific) is primarily responsible for the generation of the two ENSO components. The annual march of the eastern Pacific ITCZ tends to lock ENSO phases to the annual cycle. The model's deficiencies, limitations, and future work are also discussed. Received: 15 June 1999 / Accepted: 11 December 1999     

热带太平洋低层环流主模态与东亚大气环流的可能联系

利用1958—2001年NCEP/NCAR再分析资料,探讨了热带太平洋(100°E~60°W,10°S~10°N)10 m风场的时空变化特征及其与东亚大气环流的可能联系。结果表明:1)热带太平洋风场异常存在两种主模态,第一模态对应中西太平洋一致的西(东)风异常,关于赤道呈准对称分布,与ENSO(El Nio-Southern Oscillation)暖(冷)位相时风场的分布对应;第二模态则关于赤道呈反对称分布,西北太平洋存在显著的反气旋(气旋)式环流,中太平洋异常西风不再位于赤道上,而是南移到了10°S左右,对应ENSO暖(冷)位相向相反位相转换时的风场分布特征。2)两模态时间系数的主振荡周期不同,与ENSO循环的位相关系也不同。研究发现,当两模态呈正(负)位相分布时,贝加尔湖南侧(South to Lake Baikal,SLB)容易发生持续的高压(低压)异常环流。3)两模态与SLB异常环流的联系途径不同。第一模态正位相对应热带中东太平洋大范围暖海温引起的二极型Walker环流异常,SLB异常高压不仅能通过东亚沿岸北风和南海低槽的作用促进第一模态的前期发展,还对其后期维持起重要作用。负位相时,情况相反。该环流系统既与热带中东太平洋大范围垂直运动有关,还与邻近的中国东南沿海低层异常辐合有关;第二模态则对应热带西太平洋及东印度洋为主、大西洋为辅的暖海温引起的热带四极型Walker环流异常。此时热带西太平洋到东印度洋局地偏强的经圈Hadley环流可能是SLB异常环流维持的主要原因。     

Intraseasonal and interannual zonal circulations over the Equatorial Indian Ocean

El Ni?o Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and given phases of the Madden?CJulian Oscillation (MJO) show similar regional signatures over the Equatorial Indian Ocean, consisting in an enhancement or reversing of the convective and dynamic zonal gradients between East Africa and the Maritime Continent of Indonesia. This study analyses how these two modes of variability add or cancel their effects at their respective timescales, through an investigation of the equatorial cellular circulations over the central Indian Ocean. Results show that (1) the wind shear between the lower and upper troposphere is related to marked regional rainfall anomalies and is embedded in larger-scale atmospheric configurations, involving the Southern Oscillation; (2) the intraseasonal (30?C60?days) and interannual (4?C5?years) timescales are the most energetic frequencies that modulate these circulations, confirming the implication of the MJO and ENSO; (3) extreme values of the Indian Ocean wind shear result from the combination of El Ni?o and the MJO phase enhancing atmospheric convection over Africa, or La Ni?a and the MJO phase associated with convective activity over the Maritime Continent. Consequences for regional rainfall anomalies over East Africa and Indonesia are then discussed.     

Influence of Springtime Atlantic SST on ENSO: Role of the Madden–Julian Oscillation

Increased evidence has shown the important role of Atlantic sea surface temperature (SST) in modulating the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO). Persistent anomalies of summer Madden–Julian Oscillation (MJO) act to link the Atlantic SST anomalies (SSTAs) to ENSO. The Atlantic SSTAs are strongly correlated with the persistent anomalies of summer MJO, and possibly affect MJO in two major ways. One is that an anomalous cyclonic (anticyclonic) circulation appears over the tropical Atlantic Ocean associated with positive (negative) SSTA in spring, and it intensifies (weakens) the Walker circulation. Equatorial updraft anomaly then appears over the Indian Ocean and the eastern Pacific Ocean, intensifying MJO activity over these regions. The other involves a high pressure (low pressure) anomaly associated with the North Atlantic SSTA tripole pattern that is transmitted to the mid- and low-latitudes by a circumglobal teleconnection pattern, leading to strong (weak) convective activity of MJO over the Indian Ocean. The above results offer new viewpoints about the process from springtime Atlantic SSTA signals to summertime atmospheric oscillation, and then to the MJO of tropical atmosphere affecting wintertime Pacific ENSO events, which connects different oceans.     

A coupled model study on ENSO, MJO and Indian summer monsoon rainfall relationships

Summary In this paper, we have tried to understand the ENSO, MJO and Indian summer monsoon rainfall relationships from observation as well as from coupled model results. It was the general feeling that El-Niño years are the deficient in Indian monsoon rainfall and converse being the case for the La-Niña years. Recent papers by several authors noted the failure of this relationship. We find that the model output does confirm a breakdown of this relationship. In this study we have seen that a statistically defined modified Indian summer monsoon rainfall (MISMR) index, a linearly regressed ISMR index and dynamical Webster index (WBSI), shows an inverse relationship with ENSO index during the entire period of integration (1987 to 1999). It is also seen from this study that the amplification of the MJO signals were large and the ENSO signals were less pronounced during the years of above normal ISMR. The MJO signal amplitudes were small and ENSO signals were strong during the years of deficient ISMR. It has been noted that here is a time lag between the MJO and ENSO signal in terms of their modulation aspect. If time lag is added with the ENSO signal then both signals maintain the amplitude modulation theory. A hypothesis is being proposed here to define a relationship between MJO and ENSO signals for the entire period between 1987 and 1999.Received September 18, 2002; revised November 22, 2002; accepted December 20, 2002 Published online: May 8, 2003     

The global distribution of sources of atmospheric decadal variability and mechanisms over the tropical Pacific and southern North America

 Understanding natural atmospheric decadal variability is an important element of climate research, and here we investigate the geographic and seasonal diversity in the balance between its competing sources. Data are provided by an ensemble of multi-decadal atmospheric general circulation model experiments, forced by observed sea surface temperatures (SSTs), and verified against observations. First, the nature of internal atmospheric variability is studied. By assessing its spectral character, we refute the idea that internal modes may persist or oscillate on multi-annual time-scales, either through mechanisms purely internal to the atmosphere, or via coupling to the land surface; instead, they behave as a white noise process. Second, and more importantly, the role of oceanic forcing, relative to internal variability, is investigated by extending the ‘analysis of variance’ technique to the frequency domain. Significance testing and confidence intervals are also discussed. In the tropics, atmospheric decadal variability is usually dominated by oceanic forcing, although for some regions less so than at interannual time-scales. A moderate oceanic impact is also found for some extratropical regions in some seasons. Verification against observed mean sea-level pressure (MSLP) data suggests that many of these influences are realistic, although some model errors are also revealed. In other mid- and high-latitude regions, local simulated decadal variability is dominated by random processes, i.e. the integrated effects of chaotic weather systems. Third, we focus on the mechanisms of decadal variability in two specific regions (where the model is well behaved). Over the tropical Pacific, the relative impact of SSTs on decadal MSLP is strongly seasonal such that it peaks in September to November (SON). This is explained by noting that the model atmosphere is responsive to SSTs a little farther west in SON than it is in other seasons, and here it picks up relatively more decadal power from the ocean (the western Pacific being less dominated by ENSO time-scales), causing atmospheric ‘signal-to-noise ratios’ to be enhanced at decadal timescales in SON. Over southern North America, a strong SST impact is found in summer and autumn, resulting in an upward trend of MSLP over recent decades. We suggest this is caused by decadal SST variability in the Caribbean (and to some extent the tropical northeast Pacific in summer), which induces anomalous convective heating over these regions and hence the wider MSLP response. Received: 30 November 1998 / Accepted: 22 April 1999     

An analysis on observed and simulated PNA associated atmospheric diabatic heating

This study examines the PNA associated atmospheric diabatic heating by linearly isolating the influence of ENSO. The analysis is based on the NCEP–NCAR and ERA-40 reanalyses and a 1,000-year-long integration of the CCCma coupled climate model. Both the vertically integrated and three-dimensional diabatic heating are examined. The Rossby wave sources in association with the PNA are also diagnosed. The PNA-related heating is confined outside the tropics and is dominated by anomalies in the eastern Pacific, with a north–south dipole structure in mid-latitudes and the northern subtropics. The heating anomalies change sign with height in mid-latitudes but have the same sign throughout the troposphere in the northern subtropics. Relatively weak heating anomalies also appear in mid-latitudes, downstream of the heating dipole over North America and the western North Atlantic. The heating anomalies are largely supported by the advections related to the mean state throughout the troposphere, and partially damped by the advections related to the eddy effect, particularly at the upper troposphere over the North Pacific. Broadly similar patterns are seen from the NCEP–NCAR and ERA-40 reanalyses. Yet anomalous heating centers are generally located at relatively lower troposphere for the ERA-40 with respect to the NCEP–NCAR. The tropical heating anomalies are rather weak, remarkably different from those related to ENSO variability. In addition, the Rossby wave source collocates with the atmospheric diabatic forcing in the mid-high latitudes over the PNA sector, and shows no forcing source in the tropics. The results demonstrate possible forcing in the mid-high latitudes, regardless of tropical heating for the PNA teleconnection. The modeled heating and wave forcing anomalies in association with the modeled PNA compare reasonably well with the reanalysis-based estimates, increasing confidence in the observational results. The analysis provides further evidence of the independence of the PNA on ENSO from the diabatic heating point of view.     

Analysis of the Slab Ocean El Nino atmospheric feedbacks in observed and simulated ENSO dynamics

In a recent study it was illustrated that the El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) mode can exist in the absence of any ocean dynamics. This oscillating mode exists just due to the interaction between atmospheric heat fluxes and ocean heat capacity. The primary purpose of this study is to further explore these atmospheric Slab Ocean ENSO dynamics and therefore the role of positive atmospheric feedbacks in model simulations and observations. The positive solar radiation feedback to sea surface temperature (SST), due to reduced cloud cover for anomalous warm SSTs, is the main positive feedback in the Slab Ocean El Nino dynamics. The strength of this positive cloud feedback is strongly related to the strength of the equatorial cold tongue. The combination of positive latent and sensible heat fluxes to the west and negative ones to the east of positive anomalies leads to the westward propagation of the SST anomalies, which allows for oscillating behavior with a preferred period of 6–7 years. Several indications are found that parts of these dynamics are indeed observed and simulated in other atmospheric or coupled general circulation models (AGCMs or CGCMs). The CMIP3 AGCM-slab ensemble of 13 different AGCM simulations shows unstable ocean–atmosphere interactions along the equatorial Pacific related to stronger cold tongues. In observations and in the CMIP3 and CMIP5 CGCM model ensemble the strength and sign of the cloud feedback is a function of the strength of the cold tongue. In summary, this indicates that the Slab Ocean El Nino dynamics are indeed a characteristic of the equatorial Pacific climate that is only dominant or significantly contributing to the ENSO dynamics if the SST cold tongue is sufficiently strong. In the observations this is only the case during strong La Nina conditions. The presence of the Slab Ocean ENSO atmospheric feedbacks in observations and CGCM model simulations implies that the family of physical ENSO modes does have another member, which is entirely driven by atmospheric processes and does not need to have the same spatial pattern nor the same time scales as the main ENSO dynamics.     

Role of stochastic forcing in ENSO in observations and a coupled GCM

A procedure is presented to estimate the role of atmospheric stochastic forcing (SF) in El Ni?o–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) simulated by a coupled ocean–atmosphere general circulation model (CGCM), in direct comparison to observations represented by a global reanalysis product. SF is extracted from the CGCM and reanalysis as surface wind anomalies linearly independent of the sea-surface temperature anomalies. Madden–Julian Oscillation (MJO) is isolated from SF to quantify its role in ENSO. A coupled ocean–atmosphere model of intermediate complexity is forced with SF, as well as its MJO and non-MJO components, from the reanalysis and CGCM. The role of SF is estimated by comparing the original ENSO in observations and the CGCM with that reproduced by the intermediate model. ENSO statistics in both reanalysis and CGCM are better reproduced when the intermediate model is tuned to be weakly stable than unstable. The intermediate model driven by SF from the reanalysis reproduces most characteristics of observed ENSO, such as its spectrum, seasonal phase-locking, fast decorrelation of ENSO SST during boreal spring, and its lag-correlation with SF. In contrast, not all characteristics of ENSO in the CGCM are reproduced by the intermediate model when SF from the CGCM is used. The seasonal phase-locking of ENSO in the CGCM is not reproduced at all. ENSO, therefore, appears to be driven by SF to a lesser degree in the CGCM than in observations. Characteristics of observed ENSO reproduced by the intermediate model (driven by SF) can be largely attributed to the MJO; which, for instance, is responsible for the fast decorrelation of ENSO SST during boreal spring in both reanalysis and CGCM. The non-MJO component seems to be more responsible than the MJO for erroneous features of ENSO in the CGCM.     

Intraseasonal atmospheric variability and its interannual modulation in Central Africa

The spatial and temporal structures of the intraseasonal atmospheric variability over central Africa is investigated using 2.5°?×?2.5° daily outgoing longwave radiation (OLR) and National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) Reanalysis zonal winds for the period 1980–2010. The study begins with an overview of the Central African rainfall regime, noting in particular the contrast amongst Western and Eastern parts, with different topography and surface conditions features. The annual mean rainfall and OLR over the region revealed a zone of intense convective activity centered on the equator near 30°E, which extends southward and covers almost all the Congo forest. The annual cycle of rainfall reflects the classical bi-annual shift of Inter-Tropical Convergence Zone across the equatorial belt, between 10°S and 10°N. The result of the empirical orthogonal functions (EOFs) analysis has shown that the three leading EOF modes explain about 45?% of total intraseasonal variability. The power spectra of all the three corresponding principal components (PCs) peak around 45–50?days, indicating a Madden–Julian Oscillation (MJO) signal. The first mode exhibits high positive loadings over Northern Congo, the second over Southern Ethiopia and the third over Southwestern Tanzania. The PCs time series revealed less interannual modulation of intraseasonal oscillations for the Congo mode, while Ethiopian and Tanzanian modes exhibit strong interannual variations. H?vmoller plots of OLR, 200 and 850?hPa NCEP zonal winds found the eastward propagating features to be the dominant pattern in all the three times series, but this propagation is less pronounced in the OLR than in the 850 and 200?hpa zonal wind anomalies. An index of MJO strength was built by averaging the 30–50?day power for each day. A plot of MJO indices and El Ni?o Southern Oscillation (ENSO) cycle confirm a strong interannual modulation of MJO over Eastern central Africa partially linked with the ENSO events (El Ni?o and La Ni?a). Strong MJO activity is observed during La Ni?a years or during ENSO-neutral years, while weak or absent MJO activity is typically associated with strong El Ni?o episodes.     

Major modes of short-term climate variability in the newly developed NUIST Earth System Model (NESM)

A coupled earth system model(ESM) has been developed at the Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology(NUIST) by using version 5.3 of the European Centre Hamburg Model(ECHAM), version 3.4 of the Nucleus for European Modelling of the Ocean(NEMO), and version 4.1 of the Los Alamos sea ice model(CICE). The model is referred to as NUIST ESM1(NESM1). Comprehensive and quantitative metrics are used to assess the model's major modes of climate variability most relevant to subseasonal-to-interannual climate prediction. The model's assessment is placed in a multi-model framework. The model yields a realistic annual mean and annual cycle of equatorial SST, and a reasonably realistic precipitation climatology, but has difficulty in capturing the spring–fall asymmetry and monsoon precipitation domains. The ENSO mode is reproduced well with respect to its spatial structure, power spectrum, phase locking to the annual cycle, and spatial structures of the central Pacific(CP)-ENSO and eastern Pacific(EP)-ENSO; however, the equatorial SST variability,biennial component of ENSO, and the amplitude of CP-ENSO are overestimated. The model captures realistic intraseasonal variability patterns, the vertical-zonal structures of the first two leading predictable modes of Madden–Julian Oscillation(MJO), and its eastward propagation; but the simulated MJO speed is significantly slower than observed. Compared with the T42 version, the high resolution version(T159) demonstrates improved simulation with respect to the climatology, interannual variance, monsoon–ENSO lead–lag correlation, spatial structures of the leading mode of the Asian–Australian monsoon rainfall variability, and the eastward propagation of the MJO.     

The Trident Pacific model. Part 1: simulating surface ocean currents with a linear model during the 1993–1998 TOPEX/POSEIDON period

 Zonal advection by long equatorial waves has been shown to be an important process in the evolution of sea surface temperature in the central Pacific on ENSO time scales. The present study aims at investigating how well an oceanic model whose dynamics are based on long equatorial waves can simulate the large-scale surface zonal current variability. Thus an ocean linear model which can be run with two or three layers is validated against several sets of observations in the Pacific ocean (TOPEX/POSEIDON sea level, TAO zonal currents, surface current climatology). The surface layer (mixed-layer) has a constant depth. Therefore the layer model is equivalent to considering a shear layer solution and either one or two baroclinic modes. It allows evaluation of the impact of adding a second baroclinic mode on the simulation of surface currents. This evaluation is done for different friction parametrizations: a weak linear Rayleigh friction (24 months⁻¹), a strong linear Rayleigh friction (6 months⁻¹), and a new parametrization using quadratic friction in the momentum equation only. It is shown in all simulations using various Rayleigh friction parametrizations that the addition of a second baroclinic mode always improves the simulation of both the sea level and the surface currents, especially in the central western Pacific. In that region, there is a reduction of the propagating long Rossby waves whose amplitude is much too large when only one baroclinic mode is used. Despite this reduction, the use of a weak friction (24 months⁻¹) always yields results which compare only poorly to observations confirming results from previous studies. The use of strong friction (6 months⁻¹) improves the model simulation, but surface current variability still remains too large. Finally, the use of quadratic friction as proposed in the present study considerably improves the simulation of zonal currents and its comparison to all data sets. This result gives more confidence in the choice of such a simple model to further explore the role of zonal advection by long equatorial waves on ENSO time scales. Received: 28 May 1999 / Accepted: 18 May 2000     

Can the uncertainties of Madden-Jullian Oscillation cause a significant “Spring Predictability Barrier” for ENSO events?

With the Zebiak-Cane model and a parameterized stochastic representation of intraseasonal forcing, the impact of the uncertainties of Madden-Jullian Oscillation (MJO) on the ??Spring Predictability Barrier (SPB)?? for El Ni?o-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) prediction is studied. The parameterized form of MJO forcing is added physically to the Zebiak-Cane model to obtain the so-called Zebiak-Cane-MJO model and then the effects of initial error, stochastic model error, and their joint error mode on the SPB associated with El Ni?o prediction are estimated. The results show that the model errors caused by stochastic MJO forcing could hardly lead to a significant SPB while initial errors can do; furthermore, the joint error mode of initial error and model error associated with the stochastic MJO forcing can also lead to a significant SPB. These demonstrate that the initial error is probably the main error source of the SPB, which may provide a theoretical foundation of data assimilation for ENSO forecasts.     

ENSO in a hybrid coupled model. Part II: prediction with piggyback data assimilation

A hybrid coupled model (HCM) for the tropical Pacific ocean-atmosphere system is employed for ENSO prediction. The HCM consists of the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory ocean general circulation model and an empirical atmospheric model. In hindcast experiments, a correlation skill competitive to other prediction models is obtained, so we use this system to examine the effects of several initialization schemes on ENSO prediction. Initialization with wind stress data and initialization with wind stress reconstructed from SST using the atmospheric model give comparable skill levels. In re-estimating the atmospheric model in order to prevent hindcast-period wind information from entering through empirical atmospheric model, we note some sensitivity to the estimation data set, but this is considered to have limited impact for ENSO prediction purposes. Examination of subsurface heat content anomalies in these cases and a case forced only by the difference between observed and reconstructed winds suggests that at the current level of prediction skill, the crucial wind components for initialization are those associated with the slow ENSO mode, rather than with atmospheric internal variability. A “piggyback” suboptimal data assimilation is tested in which the Climate Prediction Center data assimilation product from a related ocean model is used to correct the ocean initial thermal field. This yields improved skill, suggesting that not all ENSO prediction systems need to invest in costly data assimilation efforts, provided the prediction and assimilation models are sufficiently close. Received: 17 April 1998 / Accepted: 22 July 1999     

ENSO in a hybrid coupled model. Part I: sensitivity to physical parametrizations

 A hybrid coupled model (HCM) for the tropical Pacific ocean-atmosphere system is used to test the effects of physical parametrizations on ENSO simulation. The HCM consists of the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory ocean general circulation model coupled to an empirical atmospheric model based on the covariance matrix of observed SST and wind stress anomaly fields. In this two-part work, part I describes the effects of ocean vertical mixing schemes and atmospheric spin-up time on ENSO period. Part II addresses ENSO prediction using the HCM and examines the impact of initialization schemes. The standard version of the HCM exhibits spatial and temporal evolution that compare well to observations, with irregular cycles that tend to exhibit 3- and 4-year frequency-locking behavior. Effects in the vertical mixing parametrization that produce stronger mixing in the surface layer give a longer inherent ENSO period, suggesting model treatment of vertical mixing is crucial to the ENSO problem. Although the atmospheric spin-up time scale is short compared to ENSO time scales, it also has a significant effect in lengthening the ENSO period. This suggests that atmospheric time scales may not be truly negligible in quantitative ENSO theory. Overall, the form and evolution mechanism of the ENSO cycle is robust, even though the period is affected by these physical parametrizations. Received: 17 April 1998 / Accepted: 22 July 1999     

Recent Advance in Understanding the Dynamics of the Madden-Julian Oscillation

The Madden-Julian oscillation （MJO） is a dominant atmospheric low-frequency mode in the tropics. In this review article, recent progress in understanding the MJO dynamics is described. Firstly, the fundamental physical processes responsible for MJO eastward phase propagation are discussed. Next, a recent modeling result to address why MJO prefers a planetary zonal scale is presented. The effect of the seasonal mean state on distinctive propagation characteristics between northern winter and summer is discussed in a theoretical framework. Then, the observed precursor signals and the physical mechanism of MJO initiation in the western equatorial Indian Ocean are further discussed. Finally, scale interactions between MJO and higher- frequency eddies are delineated.