Isard’s contributions to spatial interaction modeling

This short review, surveys Isards role in promoting what has become known as spatial interaction modeling. Some contextual information on the milieu from which his work emerged is given, together with a selected number of works that are judged to have been influenced (directly and indirectly) by his work. It is suggested that this burgeoning field owes a lot to the foundations laid in the gravity model chapter of Methods. The review is supplemented by a rather extensive bibliography of additional works that are indicative of the breadth of the impact of this field.     

Evaluation and comparison of LogitBoost Ensemble,Fisher’s Linear Discriminant Analysis,logistic regression and support vector machines methods for landslide susceptibility mapping

The purpose of this study was to investigate and compare the capabilities of four machine learning methods namely LogitBoost Ensemble (LBE), Fisher’s Linear Discriminate Analysis (FLDA), Logistic Regression (LR) and Support Vector Machines (SVM) to select the best method for landslide susceptibility mapping. A part of landslide prone area of Tehri Garhwal district of Uttarakhand state, India, was selected as a case study. Validation of models was carried out using statistical analysis, the chi square test and the Receiver Operating Characteristic (ROC) curve. Result analysis shows that the LBE has the highest prediction ability (AUC = 0.972) for landslide susceptibility mapping, followed by the SVM (0.945), the LR (0.873) and the FLDA (0.870), respectively. Therefore, the LBE is the best and a promising method in comparison to other three models for landslide susceptibility mapping.     

Analysis of the influential factors for changes to land use in China’s Xingwen Global Geopark against a tourism development background

This study employs geographic information system software to explore the influences of elevation, slope, the river system, traffic arteries and the central development zone on the land-use changes in Shihai between 1995 and 2010. Data were drawn from statistics from the first two remote sensing investigations of land use in the town of Shihai in China’s Xingwen Global Geopark and its digital elevation model data. An analysis of the relationships between changes in land use was performed using relevant models, including a comprehensive land-use dynamic degree model, a single land-use dynamic degree model and a comprehensive index model for the extent of land use. The results suggest that a combination of natural and human factors influenced the changes in Shihai’s land use during the time from 1995 to 2010. First, elevation and slope exerted environmental resistance. Specifically, as elevation or slope increased, the extent of change in land use decreased, despite local policies that have reduced the extent of this resistance. Second, the river system influenced land use such that, as distance from the river increased, changes in land use decreased and then increased, suggesting that the river has a resistant as well as propulsive influence. Third, traffic arteries and the central development zone created an environmental motivation to the changes in Shihai’s land use; specifically, the evolving tourism industry results in increasing numbers of tourist trails and roads and continually expanding Geopark services’ infrastructure. Thus, relatively more dramatic changes are experienced in the Geopark’s proximate land use than in its surroundings.     

Extracting urban water bodies from high-resolution radar images: Measuring the urban surface morphology to control for radar’s double-bounce effect

Satellite remote sensing is an effective method for extracting water bodies on a large scale. Radar imagery, such as synthetic aperture radar (SAR) imagery, can penetrate clouds and provide opportunities for water body identification when in situ observations are difficult to obtain because of severe weather conditions. However, when using SAR images in urban areas to extract water bodies, the radar’s double-bounce effect results in complicated backscatter patterns of water near urban features such as buildings due to the side-looking properties of SAR sensors and the vertical urban structures. Therefore, the objective of this study is to propose a reliable urban water extraction framework for SAR images that integrates urban surface morphological features for controlling radar’s multiple bounces. Statistical (logistic regression) and machine-learning (random forest) models were used to explore how radar’s double-bounce effect influences the prediction performance of urban water extraction. Our findings indicate that when extracting urban water bodies, urban water’s backscatter values could be significantly interfered by the neighboring building density above a threshold height that contributes to radar’s multiple bounces. Without model calibration, our framework incorporating urban surface morphology demonstrates high prediction ability with an Area Under the Curve (AUC) of 0.914 and with 97.0% of urban water cells correctly identified by testing in another city sharing similar urban forms. In summary, our study provides a better understanding of the role of the urban surface morphology in the double-bounce effect in SAR images, specifically for differentiating urban water and land, thereby improving the accuracy of urban water extraction and enhancing the feasibility of further applications of SAR imagery under complex urban landscapes.     

Error analyses of CHAMP data for recovery of the Earth’s gravity field

A preliminary commission error analysis whereby orbit perturbation theory and other techniques are used to assess and predict the recovery of the Earths gravity field from the challenging microsatellite payload (CHAMP) mission is developed and implemented. With CHAMP launched in July 2000, accumulated evidence is now available to quantify the errors in the recovery procedure including the orbital precision from GPS, attitude errors, accelerometer noise and thruster mismatch/misalignment. For the latter, numerical integrations using a variable length single-step Runge–Kutta integrator and a fixed length multi-step method are compared to assess the error associated with assuming that the thruster misalignment can be spread uniformly across a step interval. Error degree variances from simulated studies are compared to results from a recently released CHAMP-based gravity field, EIGEN-1S. It is seen that the orbital positioning, as derived from the onboard GPS receiver, is critical, with accelerometer noise contributing at a lower level. Attitude error, at currently quoted accuracy, is not significant as an error source. AcknowledgementsThe authors would like to thank the UK Natural Environment Research Council (Grant No. NER/A/0000/00612) for financing this study and GFZ for supplying the data and technical support.     

Recovery of Bennu’s orientation for the OSIRIS-REx mission: implications for the spin state accuracy and geolocation errors

The goal of the OSIRIS-REx mission is to return a sample of asteroid material from near-Earth asteroid (101955) Bennu. The role of the navigation and flight dynamics team is critical for the spacecraft to execute a precisely planned sampling maneuver over a specifically selected landing site. In particular, the orientation of Bennu needs to be recovered with good accuracy during orbital operations to contribute as small an error as possible to the landing error budget. Although Bennu is well characterized from Earth-based radar observations, its orientation dynamics are not sufficiently known to exclude the presence of a small wobble. To better understand this contingency and evaluate how well the orientation can be recovered in the presence of a large 1\(^{\circ }\) wobble, we conduct a comprehensive simulation with the NASA GSFC GEODYN orbit determination and geodetic parameter estimation software. We describe the dynamic orientation modeling implemented in GEODYN in support of OSIRIS-REx operations and show how both altimetry and imagery data can be used as either undifferenced (landmark, direct altimetry) or differenced (image crossover, altimetry crossover) measurements. We find that these two different types of data contribute differently to the recovery of instrument pointing or planetary orientation. When upweighted, the absolute measurements help reduce the geolocation errors, despite poorer astrometric (inertial) performance. We find that with no wobble present, all the geolocation requirements are met. While the presence of a large wobble is detrimental, the recovery is still reliable thanks to the combined use of altimetry and imagery data.     

Climate change mitigation in Canada’s forest sector: a spatially explicit case study for two regions

Background

We determine the potential of forests and the forest sector to mitigate greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions by changes in management practices and wood use for two regions within Canada’s managed forest from 2018 to 2050. Our modeling frameworks include the Carbon Budget Model of the Canadian Forest Sector, a framework for harvested wood products that estimates emissions based on product half-life decay times, and an account of marginal emission substitution benefits from the changes in use of wood products and bioenergy. Using a spatially explicit forest inventory with 16 ha pixels, we examine mitigation scenarios relating to forest management and wood use: increased harvesting efficiency; residue management for bioenergy; reduced harvest; reduced slashburning, and more longer-lived wood products. The primary reason for the spatially explicit approach at this coarse resolution was to estimate transportation distances associated with delivering harvest residues for heat and/or electricity production for local communities.

Results

Results demonstrated large differences among alternative scenarios, and from alternative assumptions about substitution benefits for fossil fuel-based energy and products which changed scenario rankings. Combining forest management activities with a wood-use scenario that generated more longer-lived products had the highest mitigation potential.

Conclusions

The use of harvest residues to meet local energy demands in place of burning fossil fuels was found to be an effective scenario to reduce GHG emissions, along with scenarios that increased the utilization level for harvest, and increased the longevity of wood products. Substitution benefits from avoiding fossil fuels or emissions-intensive products were dependent on local circumstances for energy demand and fuel mix, and the assumed wood use for products. As projected future demand for biomass use in national GHG mitigation strategies could exceed sustainable biomass supply, analyses such as this can help identify biomass sources that achieve the greatest mitigation benefits.

     

Evaluation of Goddard’s LiDAR,hyperspectral, and thermal data products for mapping urban land-cover types

Goddard’s LiDAR (Light Detection And Ranging), hyperspectral and thermal (G-LiHT) airborne imager is a new system to advance concepts of data fusion for worldwide applications. A recent G-LiHT mission conducted in June 2016 over an urban area opens a new opportunity to assess the G-LiHT products for urban land-cover mapping. In this study, the G-LiHT hyperspectral and LiDAR-canopy height model (LiDAR-CHM) products were evaluated to map five broad land-cover types. A feature/decision-level fusion strategy was developed to integrate two products. Contemporary data processing techniques were applied, including object-based image analysis, machine-learning algorithms, and ensemble analysis. Evaluation focused on the capability of G-LiHT hyperspectral products compared with multispectral data with similar spatial resolution, the contribution of LiDAR-CHM, and the potential of ensemble analysis in land-cover mapping. The results showed that there was no significant difference between the application of the G-LiHT hyperspectral product and simulated Quickbird data in the classification. A synthesis of G-LiHT hyperspectral and LiDAR-CHM products achieved the best result with an overall accuracy of 96.3% and a Kappa value of 0.95 when ensemble analysis was applied. Ensemble analysis of the three classifiers not only increased the classification accuracy but also generated an uncertainty map to show regions with a robust classification as well as areas where classification errors were most likely to occur. Ensemble analysis is a promising tool for land-cover classification.     

Responses of landscape pattern of China’s two largest freshwater lakes to early dry season after the impoundment of Three-Gorges Dam

The effects of hydrologic cycle change (caused by human activity and global climate change) on ecosystems attract the increasing attention around the world. As a result of impounding of the Three Gorges Dam (TGD), climate change and sand mining, the dry season of Poyang Lake and Dongting Lake (China’s two largest freshwater lakes) came early after the TGD impoundment. It was the primary cause of the increasing need for sluice/dam construction to store water in the Lakes and attracted increasing attention. In this paper, we compared the landscape pattern between three hydrologic years with early dry season (EY) and three normal hydrologic years (NY) of each lake by remote sensing technology, to reveal the effect of early dry season on landscape pattern. The results showed that early dry season caused expanding of Phalaris to mudflat zone in Poyang Lake, while caused expanding of Carex to Phalaris zone and expanding of Phalaris to mudflat zone in Dongting Lake. In landscape level, there was no significant difference in landscape grain size, landscape grain shape, habitat connectivity and landscape diversity between EY and NY in the two lakes. While in habitat class level, there were significant changes in area of mudflat and Phalaris and grain size of mudflat in Poyang Lake, and in area of Carex, grain size of Phalaris and grain shape of Carex and Phalaris in Dongting Lake. These changes will impact migrating birds of East Asian and migratory fishes of Yangtze River.     

Estimation of mass change trends in the Earth’s system on the basis of GRACE satellite data, with application to Greenland

The Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) satellite mission measures the Earth’s gravity field since March 2002. We propose a new filtering procedure for post-processing GRACE-based monthly gravity field solutions provided in the form of spherical harmonic coefficients. The procedure is tuned for the optimal estimation of linear trends and other signal components that show a systematic behavior over long time intervals. The key element of the developed methodology is the statistically optimal Wiener-type filter which makes use of the full covariance matrices of noise and signal. The developed methodology is applied to determine the mass balance of the Greenland ice sheet, both per drainage system and integrated, as well as the mass balance of the ice caps on the islands surrounding Greenland. The estimations are performed for three 2-year time intervals (2003–2004, 2005–2006, and 2007–2008), as well as for the 6-year time interval (2003–2008). The study confirms a significant difference in the behavior of the drainage systems over time. The average 6-year rate of mass loss in Greenland is estimated as 165 ± 15 Gt/year. The rate of mass loss of the ice caps on Ellesmere Island (together with Devon Island), Baffin Island, Iceland, and Svalbard is found to be 22 ± 4, 21 ± 6, 17 ± 9, and 6 ± 2 Gt/year, respectively. All these estimates are corrected for the effect of glacial isostatic adjustment.     

Transformation of amplitudes and frequencies of precession and nutation of the earth’s rotation vector to amplitudes and frequencies of diurnal polar motion

The temporal change of the rotation vector of a rotating body is, in the first order, identical in a space-fixed system and in a body-fixed system. Therefore, if the motion of the rotation axis of the earth relative to a space-fixed system is given as a function of time, it should be possible to compute its motion relative to an earth-fixed system, and vice versa. This paper presents such a transformation. Two models of motion of the rotation axis in the space-fixed system are considered: one consisting only of a regular (i.e., strictly conical) precession and one extended by circular nutation components, which are superimposed upon the regular precession. The Euler angles describing the orientation of the earth-fixed system with respect to the space-fixed system are derived by an analytical solution of the kinematical Eulerian differential equations. In the first case (precession only), this is directly possible, and in the second case (precession and nutation), a solution is achieved by a perturbation approach, where the result of the first case serves as an approximation and nutation is regarded as a small perturbation, which is treated in a linearized form. The transformation by means of these Euler angles shows that the rotation axis performs in the earth-fixed system retrograde conical revolutions with small amplitudes, namely one revolution with a period of one sidereal day corresponding to precession and one revolution with a period which is slightly smaller or larger than one sidereal day corresponding to each (prograde or retrograde) circular nutation component. The peculiar feature of the derivation presented here is the analytical solution of the Eulerian differential equations.