1971-2007年青藏高原南部气候变化特征分析

利用我国青藏高原南部24个站点1971-2007年37 a的月平均气温和月降水量资料,对该地区气温和降水量的时空变化特征进行了详细分析.结果表明:1)37 a来该地区气候显著变暖,年平均气温升温率为0.33℃.(10a)-1,气候变暖主要发生于1990年后.1991-2007年气候变暖加速,升温率达到0.76℃.(10a)-1,1997年后升温尤为迅速,升温率达1.14℃.(10a)-1.变暖表现为全年温度升高,其中冬季增暖尤为显著,1971-2007年升温率为0.41℃.(10a)-1,1991-2007年快速上升为1.4℃.(10a)-1.变暖速率具有从东向西的增加趋势;2)年降水量呈增加趋势,但不明显.降水量变化地区差异显著,西部地区降水量显著减少,东部地区总体呈增加趋势.随海拔和地形升高,年降水量有从东向西的减少趋势;3)综合而言,37 a来青藏高原南部地区气候变化呈现暖湿组合特征,但地区差异显著,东部地区变暖变湿,西部地区在变暖变干.     

基于DEM的农业指标温度分析——以甘肃河东地区为例

基于甘肃河东地区61个气象近30a(1971—2000年)的气温资料计算了≥0℃、≥10℃积温;利用地理信息系统(GIS)技术对≥0℃和≥10℃积温进行了数据栅格化.结果表明:甘肃省河东地区≥0℃积温、≥10℃活动和有效积温与经度和海拔的相关性达到极显著水平,推算积温与实际积温的相对误比较小,数据栅格化的≥0℃积温、≥10℃活动和有效积温空间分布比实际积温更突显地域差别,这种巨大差异对农业结构的多样性发展提供了条件;气候变暖使热量资源增加,对农业的影响还与降水资源有关系.     

北极Ny-?lesund地区气候特征初步研究

使用中国北极黄河站、德法联合AWIPEV站和挪威NPI站自动气象观测资料,对Ny-?lesund地区近年来的气候特征进行了分析研究。结果表明:2005-2014年期间Ny-?lesund地区年均气温为(-3.3±0.7)℃;该地区过去40 a间的升温速率为(0.76±0.29)℃·(10a)~(-1),是同期全球升温速率(0.17±0.03)℃·(10a)~(-1)的4~5倍。2005-2014年期间年均相对湿度为(75.9±1.0)%,月均相对湿度的最高和最低值分别出现在8月和4月,比月均最高和最低气温滞后一个月;年均比湿为(2.5±0.1)g·kg~(-1),比湿上升速率为(0.14±0.12)g·kg~(-1)·(10a)~(-1)(1994-2010年)。2005-2014年期间年均气压为(1 008.2±2.1)hPa,5月平均气压最高,12月平均气压最低,气压日变化呈双峰双谷型。该地区风力较弱,2006-2013年间年均风速仅为(3.3±0.3)m·s~(-1);由于受Svalbard群岛冰帽和冰川等地形特征的影响,Ny-?lesund地区全年盛行东南风。该地区气候表现出典型的极地海洋性气候特征,冬季冰雪-夏季高寒苔原的特殊下垫面特征对其天气气候也有重要影响。     

气候变暖对河西走廊棉花生产影响的成因与对策研究

揭示了气候变化对河西走廊棉花生产有着显著影响,实际上使其生育期延长20天,霜前花减少30％;适生区域提高100 m左右,面积扩大7倍;衣分提高2个百分点,气候产量增加54.3％的基本事实。探明了现代气候变暖对高原地区喜热作物棉花产生非常有利影响的重要原因,是由于≥10℃积温升高131℃,裂铃至停止生长关键期增温30℃;最低气温升高0.9℃,春季增温加快,秋季降温减缓,使生长期热量资源得到较大补偿,气候生态适应性更适宜,与棉花生理需求指标更接近。预测未来10～15年内≥10℃积温可能增加100～300℃,适生区域升高100 m左右,建议稳步扩大面积20％～30％,并提出按不同种植区域采取相适应的农业生产技术等建议。     

南极中山站极昼期间气象要素变化特征

利用中山站1989-2011年极昼期间的气温、气压、风、降水等高质量的地面气象观测资料, 对中山站极昼期间气象要素基本气候特征和变化趋势进行了统计与分析, 研究了极昼期间天气特征. 结果表明: 极昼期间年平均气温为-0.6 ℃, 呈缓慢下降趋势, 其变化速率为-0.2 ℃·(10a)^-1;年平均风速为5.4 m·s^-1, 变化速率为-0.5 m·s^-1·(10a)^-1;共出现降水日数459 d, 占极昼期间总日数的33.3%;年平均日照时数为763.8 h, 日照时数呈上升趋势, 变化速率为26.8 h·(10a) ^-1. 研究结果有助于了解和研究南极中山站气候概况, 对中山站度夏科学考察工作有重要的参考价值.     

张掖市农耕期热量资源变化特征及对农业生产的影响

利用张掖市6个气象观测站1961-2010年实测气温资料,运用5 d滑动平均、气候倾向率、Mann-Kendall检验等方法,对农耕期初日、终日、持续日数及≥0℃积温的分布特征、年际和年代际演变规律及突变特点进行分析,结果表明:张掖市农耕期初日随海拔高度的升高推迟,终日则相反,农耕期日数自西北部向东南缩短,积温南北差异显著;近50 a初日提早,终日推迟,持续日数延长,积温增加趋势明显;20世纪70-80年代前期各地表现出农耕期初日推迟,终日提前,持续日数较短,≥0℃积温偏少的特点;20世纪90年代以来,终日延迟程度大于初日提前程度,积温增加显著,尤其2001-2010年增幅为50 a最大;山前绿洲及荒漠绿洲农耕期终日、持续日数及积温分别在1995/1997年、1982/1990年、1996/1999年发生了突变;农耕期热量资源增加,对作物种植结构的调整、生育进程的加快及产量均产生一定影响.     

Relationship between Soil＇s Seasonal Freezing Process and Daily Accumulative Hourly Temperature in Northern Xinjiang Region

传统的度日因子模型很难分辨在结冻期土壤每日结冻和解冻的过程,而日小时积温可以区分正积温和负积温对土壤冻结过程的影响.利用北疆地区1951-2010年气象站数据和决策树算法,分析计算日小时积温及表层5cm和10cm土壤冻结状态数据及日小时积温对季节性冻土冻结现象的影响.结果表明：在北疆范围年小时正积温以每年平均160℃增长,而年小时负积温以每年平均153℃减少.季节性冻土发生冻结现象所需的临界值分布与北疆地区气候和土壤分布基本一致,但仍存在空间差异性.北疆地区5cm土壤结冻所需的日小时负积温为-50℃以下,而5cm到10cm土壤结冻所需日小时负积温的平均值差值为-15℃左右.与日最低气温和日平均气温作为土壤结冻判据相比,日小时积温临界值作为判据可获得较高的精确度.在昌吉地区和阿勒泰地区冻土的平均深度随着日小时负积温临界值的增加而减少.     

新疆北疆地区季节性冻土结冻过程与日积温的关系

传统的度日因子模型很难分辨在结冻期土壤每日结冻和解冻的过程,而日小时积温可以区分正积温和负积温对土壤冻结过程的影响.利用北疆地区1951-2010年气象站数据和决策树算法,分析计算日小时积温及表层5cm和10cm土壤冻结状态数据及日小时积温对季节性冻土冻结现象的影响.结果表明:在北疆范围年小时正积温以每年平均160℃增长,而年小时负积温以每年平均153℃减少.季节性冻土发生冻结现象所需的临界值分布与北疆地区气候和土壤分布基本一致,但仍存在空间差异性.北疆地区5cm土壤结冻所需的日小时负积温为-50℃以下,而5cm到10cm土壤结冻所需日小时负积温的平均值差值为-15℃左右.与日最低气温和日平均气温作为土壤结冻判据相比,日小时积温临界值作为判据可获得较高的精确度.在昌吉地区和阿勒泰地区冻土的平均深度随着日小时负积温临界值的增加而减少.     

气候变化对博尔塔拉河上游径流量的影响分析

应用博尔塔拉河上游温泉水文站和温泉气象站1961-2012年的观测资料,分析博尔塔拉河上游气温和降水的变化特征以及径流对气候变化的响应。结果表明：近50a来,博尔塔拉河上游区出现了气温升高、降水量增加的暖湿化气候变化趋势。其中,在夏、秋、冬季升温明显,夏、冬季增湿明显;对气温与降水序列进行统计检验,得出该地区气温、降水增加的趋势显著,气温的增加趋势大于降水;通过研究发现,气温是影响博尔塔拉河出山径流量的主要因子,尤其是夏季平均气温与年径流量的相关系数最大,为0.71;夏季降水量与年径流量相关系数为0.52。利用夏季平均气温、夏季降水量建立多元线性回归模型,相关系数为R=0.78。说明温泉气象站的夏季温度上升、降水量增加,博尔塔拉河的径流量就会增加;由于气候暖湿变化效应,大气降水和来水量的增加,使这一地区的荒漠植被得到了一定的恢复,在一定程度上减少了风沙天气,湖区的生态环境已有明显改善。     

西北干旱半干旱区春小麦生长对气候变暖响应的区域差异

对分别位于西北特干旱、干旱、半干旱3种主要气候类型区的敦煌、武威（1981—2005年）、定西3个农业气象观测站(1986—2005）年的气候变化对春小麦各个物候期及其产量的影响进行分析，结果显示：不同台站的气候变化模式在时间和空间上都不同，武威和定西的气温增加而降水量减少，气候均呈现暖干化趋势，但前者的变化量大于后者。所不同的是敦煌站的气温和降水量都呈增加趋势。相关分析结果，一方面显示了在不同的气候类型区，影响春小麦生长的主导因子不同，影响敦煌、武威、定西3站春小麦生长期天数和产量的主导气象因子分别为≥0℃积温、日均温、降水量。另一方面也显示了同一气象因子对不同地区作物的影响程度、强度和方向都不同，日均温的增加对不同地区春小麦生长期的负效应表现为武威＞敦煌＞定西；≥0℃积温对春小麦生长期和产量的正效应表现为敦煌＞定西，对武威春小麦的生长期有正影响，而对产量有负影响；降水量对半干旱雨养农业区定西春小麦生长期和产量的正影响最大且极为显著（P＜0.01）；日照时数对不同地区春小麦整个生长期和产量的正影响敦煌＞定西＞武威。气候变化最终导致敦煌站春小麦的产量以8.8 g/（m2·a）的速率显著增加，武威、定西受气候暖干化的影响，春小麦产量分别下降0.3 g/（m2·a）、5.5 g/（m2·a）。造成这些差异的主要原因可能是各地的气候条件不同，其次是各地的栽培条件、田间管理（如灌溉、施肥、病虫害防治）等非气象因子的不同所致，各地作物的生长及产量形成都是气象因子和非气象因子共同作用的结果。 [HT5H]关〓键〓词：[HT5K]区域差异；响应；气候变暖；春小麦  [HT5H]中图分类号：P463.2;S162.5〓〓〓文献标识码：A[HT5SS][HK]     

Unity of the national and the international in the socio-cultural development of the peoples of the USSR

International unity is becoming ever stronger in this country owing to an increasing similarity in the development of the cultural environment. This comprises the provision of all the country's republics with a sufficient number of schools, theatres, and other institutions and cultural information media in accordance with the needs of the population. An important part is played by the rise in ‘the general educational level, as well as the level of professional qualifications and skills. Among all the Soviet nations and nationalities, this rise being more rapid among formerly backward peoples. Prominent among the factors of internationalization is the progressive development of the nationalities’ cultural resources, while professional culture is being increasingly brought within the reach of the masses.The implementation of the nationalities policy promotes the all-round development of all Soviet nations and nationalities, their drawing together, the upsurge of the individual capabilities of every Soviet citizen.     

Report of the restudy of the defined global stratotype of the base of the Silurian System

The Global Stratotype Section and Point （GSSP） for the base of the Silurian System was defined in 1985. Since that time, a number of researchers have suggested that this section has serious deficiencies for use as a GSSP. As a result, in 2000, the Subcommission on Silurian Stratigraphy （SSS） proposed undertaking a formal restu@ of this GSSP, which was subsequently approved by the International Commission of Stratigraphy （ICS）. The result of this restudy was the formal proposal that the current GSSP, at 1.6 m above the base of the Birkhill Shale, at Dob＇s Linn, Scotland, should be maintained as the same locality and stratigraphic level, but the bios- tratigraphical definition of the boundary should be revised. The previously defined, basal Silurian grapto- lite zone, the Parakidograptus acuminatus Zone, should be subdivided into a lower Akidograptus ascensus Zone and a higher E acuminatus Zone. The base of the A. ascensus Zone, marked by the first appearance of A. ascensus, should be regarded as the biostratigraphic mark for the base of the Silurian. This proposal has now been formally approved by the SSS and ICS, and ratified by International Union of Geological Sciences. This is the first GSSP to undergo formal restudy and redefini- tion, and the proposal also included a recommended procedure for restudy of GSSPs.     

Deviation of the major axis of the inertia ellipsoid of the Moon from the direction toward the Earth

It is known from observations that the center of mass of the Moon does not coincide with the geometric center of its figure, and the line connecting these two centers is not aligned with the direction toward the center of the Earth, instead deviating toward the Southeast. This stationary deviation of the axis of the inertia ellipsoid of the Moon to the South of the direction toward the Earth is analyzed. A system of five linear differential equations describing the physical libration of the Moon in latitude is considered, and these equations are derived using a new vector method taking into account perturbations from the Earth and partly from the Sun. The characteristic equation of this system is obtained, and all five oscillation frequencies are found. Special attention is paid to the fifth (zero) frequency, for which the solution of the latitude libration equations are stationary and represents a previously unknown additional motion of the rotational axis of theMoon in a cone with a small opening angle. In contrast to the astronomical precession of the Earth, the rotation of the angular-velocity vector is in the positive direction (counter-clockwise), with the period T ₃ = 27.32 days. On this basis, this phenomenon has been named “quasi-precession.” This quasi-precession leads to a stationary inclination of the major axis of the inertia ellipsoid of theMoon to the South (for an observer on Earth), making it possible to explain one component of the observed deviation of the center of mass of the Moon from the direction toward the Earth. The opening angle of the quasiprecession cone is approximately 0.834″.     

The Tendencies of the Development of the Mineral-Resources Sector at the Turn of the Century

Important tendencies in development of the world mineral-resources sector at the beginning of the 21st century were an increase in production and consumption of mineral materials differentiated by types of metals and nonmetallic mineral raw materials, by countries and regions, as well as the concentration of the production of mineral raw materials in a small number of countries, and a reduction in industrial reserves of minerals in the world economy, even at the current stage of their extraction. These tendencies should be taken into account in working out a strategy for development of the Russian mineral raw-material base.     

Causes of the famine among the rural population of the Sahelian zone of the Sudan

Taking the example of W Sudan, an analysis of the climatic incidents leading to the two recent famine disasters is made. On this natural background, the human side is investigated. Focus is directed towards the fragile economic structure of the famine-prone population groups. An early-warning system for famine in the Sahelian Zone is proposed taking grain production and storage, livestock development and the relationship between the prices of livestock and grain as major indicators.     

东濮凹陷北部沙河街组三段中亚段沉积环境分析

东濮凹陷北部沙三中亚段广泛发育盐岩和烃源岩,这两个看似不能共存的物质却在这里互层共生。该时期研究区沉积特征为多盐韵律与多层烃源岩互层共生、连续沉积,单个盐韵律厚度从几米到十几米,烃源岩有机质丰度高、类型好。平面上,两者在湖盆沉积沉降中心共生;垂向上,高有机质丰度、好干酪根类型与高盐度地层具有较好的对应关系。因而成为恢复古气候和古环境的重要研究对象。通过岩石学、古生物学以及Sr/Ba、B/Ga、(V+Ni+Mn)、Fe/Mn、Sr/Cu、Mg/Ca、V/(V+Ni)、稀土元素含量和氯同位素等方法对凹陷北部沙三中亚段的沉积环境进行研究。结果表明,凹陷北部沙三中亚段为深水沉积的还原环境,古盐度较高,达到半咸水-咸水沉积;微量元素和孢粉化石特征表明研究区沙三中亚段为温暖潮湿的环境。     

On the consistency of proposed models for the Pyrenees with the structure of the eastern parts of the belt

The structure of the eastern Pyrenees consists mainly of south-directed thrusts involving basement and cover rocks. An antiformal stack developed by the piling up of basement thrust sheets which outcrop in the Axial zone. These structures account for a thin-skinned thrust model rather than a vertical fault model in which the Axial zone would be essentially autochthonous, and the North-Pyrenean fault the axial plane of a fan thrust system. New data from the Eastern Pyrenees and the thin-skinned model suggest that(1) the structure east of the Pedraforca nappe is similar to that of the Central Pyrenees; (2) the cover rocks of the South-Pyrenean units and of the Axial zone-after restoration—built up a northwards-thickening prism consistent with the existence of a unique Pyrenean sedimentary basin during Mesozoic time; (3) the Axial zone is only a complex antiformal stack developed as a part of South-Pyrenean system related to the Paleogene thrusting-tectonics. The Axial zone palaeogeographic area had no special meaning during Mesozoic time.     

The Importance of the Precipitation and the Susceptibility of the Slopes for the Triggering of Landslides Along the Roads

In order to characterise the influence of the heavyrains on the observed landslides during the 1996–1997hydrological cycle, rainfall records for the last 100years are analysed from 104 stations in easternAndalusia. Regarding the amounts of rain recordedbetween October 1996 and March 1997 in the 104stations studied, 31 presented new all-time records;15 presented values that were 80–100% of thepre-1995 record; 49 stations, 80–50%; and 9stations, < 50%. A map has been devised of thesusceptibility of the materials through which thesouth-eastern Andalusian road network crosses,together with an inventory of the damage caused byinstability phenomena on banks and cuttings of theroad network during the winter of 1996–1997. Therelationships between the rainfall during the studyperiod, the damage caused to the road network and thesusceptibility of the materials affected are analysed.The results indicate that there is a clearcorrespondence between the rainfall recorded and thesusceptibility of the materials with the inventorieddamage. It is concluded that the widespread seriousdamage caused in early 1997 to the roads andsurrounding areas in the Alpujarra region and thecoast of the Province of Granada was mainly caused bythe extraordinarily heavy rains. However, considerablyless damage was observed where the susceptibility ofthe terrain is low, thus highlighting the extremeusefulness of terrain-susceptibility maps for riskprevention and territorial planning.