The logistics of household hurricane evacuation

Although there is a substantial amount of research on households’ hurricane evacuation decision making, there is much less research on the logistical issues involved in implementing those evacuations. The limited research on household evacuation logistics has consistently shown that most evacuees stay in the homes of friends and relatives or in commercial facilities rather than in public shelters. However, evacuation logistics—which can be defined as the activities and associated resources needed to reach a safe location and remain there until it is safe to return—encompasses a much broader range of behaviors than this. The present study extends previous research by reporting data on other aspects of evacuation logistics such as departure timing, vehicle use, evacuation routes, travel distance, shelter type, evacuation duration, and evacuation cost. Hurricane Lili evacuation data at the county level are generally consistent with the data from previous hurricanes, but there is notable variation across counties studied here. There were only modest correlations of demographic and geographic variables with the evacuation logistics variables, a result that indicates further research is needed to better understand what happens between the time an evacuation decision is made and the time re-entry is begun. Moreover, research is needed to understand the logistics of evacuation by special populations such as transients and households with disabled members.     

A risk-based approach for crowd evacuation performance evaluation under metro fire

This paper aims to evaluate the crowd evacuation performance in a metro fire by using the limit state equation to describe the egress process. The limit state equation is established by the available time margin in fire evacuation, which comprises the evacuee's response time, behaviour time and movement time to an exit. Here, the available time margin in a fire evacuation is determined by the duration of time the smoke takes to exceed the evacuee's respiration level, the time that the smoke is detected by fire alarm and the time that the evacuee needs to respond and move to an exit during evacuation. Further, Monte Carlo simulation approach has been employed to integrate the fatality rates and the probabilities of occurrence of different scenarios in a typical metro in Xiaobailou station of station-Tianjin Line 1. Through this case study, it is shown that the evacuee's response time, behaviour time and movement time to exits can be integrated in a stochastic process model.     

Incorporating inland flooding into hurricane evacuation decision support modeling

Natural Hazards - Formal engineering hurricane evacuation studies have not typically considered inland flooding explicitly, though it has been shown repeatedly to be a major cause of damage and...     

A hurricane evacuation management decision support system (EMDSS)

This article describes the challenges confronting local authorities who must decide if and when to initiate evacuations from tropical cyclones. This problem can be decomposed into the behavior of the hurricane that is relevant to evacuation and the behavior of evacuees that is relevant to the hurricane. The uncertain behavior of these two systems can be modeled in an evacuation management decision support system (EMDSS). The hurricane EMDSS described here displays information about the minimum, most, and maximum probable evacuation time estimates (ETEs) in comparison to the earliest, most, and latest probable estimated times of arrival (ETAs) for storm conditions. In addition, EMDSS calculates the cost of false positive (the economic cost of an evacuation) and false negative (lives lost in a late evacuation) decision errors. EMDSS is being used in experiments to assess different information displays, team compositions, community characteristics, and hurricane scenarios. In addition, it will be used in training and actual hurricane operations. Finally, definition of the program’s requirements has identified further research needed to build a better empirical base for its input data.     

Methodology and its application for community-scale evacuation planning against earthquake disaster

In urban area, popular and property is accumulated in a small area, potential risk of earthquake disaster in urban community is great. Pre-disaster emergency evacuation zoning has become a significant topic of disaster prevention and mitigation research. Based on the present layout of evacuation facilities and shelters as well as the evacuation demands in urban communities, a systematical methodology for occupant evacuation against earthquakes on community scale was developed by employing spatial analysis techniques of Geographical Information System (GIS). The methodology included the following aspects: the distribution analysis of emergency evacuation demands, the calculation of shelter space accessibility, and the optimization of evacuation destinations. This methodology was applied to Lujiazui Street in Pudong, a new district located in Shanghai, China. It was found that the proposed methodology could be used to formulate pre-event planning for earthquake disaster prevention and mitigation on a community scale, especially for organizing a rapid and smooth evacuation and optimizing the location allocation of shelters.     

Risk perception and evacuation decisions of Florida tourists under hurricane threats: a stated preference analysis

Though most hurricane evacuation studies have focused on residents, tourists are also a vulnerable population. To assess their perceptions of risk and evacuation likelihood under different hurricane conditions, we surveyed 448 tourists visiting central Florida. Respondents viewed four maps emulating track forecast cones produced by the National Hurricane Center and text information featuring variations of storm intensity, coast of landfall, centerline position relative to the survey site, time until landfall, and event duration. We performed chi-square tests to determine which hurricane conditions, and aspects of tourists such as their demographics and previous hurricane experience, most likely influenced their ratings of risk and evacuation likelihood for respondents located on Pinellas County beaches or inland near Orlando, FL. Highly rated scenarios featured a Category 4 hurricane making landfall along the Gulf Coast with the centerline passing over the sampling site. Overall, tourists that indicated the highest risk and evacuation ratings were not previously affected by a hurricane, had a trip duration of less than 6 days, and had checked for the possibility of a hurricane strike before departure. However, results for other tourist attributes differed between tourists in coastal and inland locations. We found that although somewhat knowledgeable about hurricanes, tourists misinterpreted the track forecast cone and hurricane conditions, which led to a lower perception of risk and subsequent likelihood to evacuate. Tourists, particularly those from outside of Florida, need to be better educated about the risks they face from hurricanes that make landfall.     

Producing landslide-susceptibility maps for regional planning in data-scarce regions

In many of the lesser developed areas of the world, regional development planning is increasingly important for meeting the needs of current and future inhabitants. Expansion of economic capability, infrastructure, and residential capacity requires significant investment, and so efforts to limit the negative effect of landslides and other natural hazards on these investments are crucial. Many of the newer approaches to identifying and mapping relative landslide susceptibility within a developing area are hindered by insufficient data in the places where it is most needed. An approach called matrix assessment was specifically designed for regional development planning where data may be limited. Its application produces a landslide-susceptibility map suitable for use with other planning data in a Geographical Information System (GIS) environment. Its development also encourages collecting basic landslide inventory data suitable for site-specific studies and for refining landslide hazard assessments in the future. This paper illustrates how matrix assessment methodology was applied to produce a landslide-susceptibility map for the Commonwealth of Dominica, an island nation in the eastern Caribbean, and how with a follow up study the relative landslide-susceptibility mapping was validated. A second Caribbean application on Jamaica demonstrates how this methodology can be applied in a more geologically complex setting. A validated approach to mapping landslide susceptibility which does not require extensive input data offers a significant benefit to planning in lesser developed parts of the world.     

Simulation-based optimization of emergency evacuation strategy in ultra-high-rise buildings

Emergency evacuation in high-rise buildings is a crucial problem. The evacuation strategy of using stairs and evacuation elevators should be optimized. In this paper, simulation-based optimization method is used to optimize the evacuation strategy of using stairs and elevators in high-rise buildings. The stair simulation is based on a cellular automata model, and several typical pedestrians’ walk preferences are considered in this model. In the simulation, evacuation elevators can arrive at the refuge floors, and the scheduling of the elevators is optimized based on the GA algorithm. The simulation-based optimization is designed as a two-level problem: The upper level is a strategy level; the lower level is an operation level. In the study case, the evacuation strategy of a 100-floor ultra-high-rise office building is optimized. We find that if evacuees follow the traditional stair evacuation strategy, the evacuation time is 42.6 min. After optimization, the evacuation time of optimal strategy by using both stairs and elevators is 25.1 min. Compared with the traditional stair evacuation strategy, the efficiency of evacuation is improved by 41.1%. It is also found that the merging behavior in stairwells will decrease the velocity of the pedestrian flow. Stairs are still the main egress, and evacuation elevators are an assistant egress during high-rise building evacuation.     

Capital investment and regional planning in Britain

British regional problems increasingly emphasize the need to understand the exploitation and movement of all factors of production between different parts of the country. This paper reviews evidence, from work sponsored by the National Institute of Economic and Social Research, on the significance for the standard regions of capital investment, interregional capital flows and regional investment multipliers. A high level of economic interdependence allows the effects of investment to become widely spread throughout the British space economy. This limits the power of capital expenditure to lead growth in the region where it takes place. Studies of the spatial implications of capital investment should therefore form part of more general appraisals of factor supply and demand changes and their effects on the decisions of different investing agencies (including government). Two distinctive themes for the geographical study of capital investment are suggested: the examination of relationships between investment projects by different agencies at appropriate sub-regional scales; and the ways in which established patterns of physical capital stock may influence the expenditure of new, mobile funds.     

Utilization of data bank on grid square basis for regional planning

This paper deals with results of case studies using actual magnetic tape records of Statistics on Grid Square Basis and Digital National Land Information which have been compiled since 1965 by governmental agencies on the same grid square basis from census and map reading covering the whole country. The number of items on the records has been increasing, including land information and socio-economic statistics which seem to be useful for land development/conservation planning and regional planning. However, in reality a majority of local governments have not used to date these records enough. In this study the combination analysis of two or more items is made in order to make more effective use of the records for these plannings. The number of grid squares under fixed conditions are calculated and the distribution maps are drawn by means of line printer or X-Y plotter. The themes are as follows: 1. Population distribution and population growth and land use type by landform classification, 2. Proportion of built-up area in city planning area, 3. Selection of possible space for housing development, 4. Division of a given area based on natural conditions for daily life into three areas, namely suitable areas, possible but rather difficult areas, and unsuitable areas. 5. Selection of suitable areas for sightseeing and recreation. The items used for combination analysis are 1970 and 1975 Population Census, ground elevation, angle of inclination, value of relief, landform classification, surface geology classification, soil classification, land use classification, and city planning area. The data of land value and distance from nearest station are produced by map reading for the test area in this study. From these combinations an objective and detailed distribution can be determined. Finally, several examples of the studies are shown.     

A coupled high-resolution hydrodynamic and cellular automata-based evacuation route planning model for pedestrians in flooding scenarios

Flooding is now becoming one of the most frequent and widely distributed natural hazards, with significant losses to human lives and property around the world. Evacuation of pedestrians during flooding events is a crucial factor in flood risk management, in addition to saving people’s lives and increasing time for rescue. The key objective of this work is to propose a shortest evacuation path planning algorithm by considering the evacuable areas and human instability during floods. A shortest route optimization algorithm based on cellular automata is established while using diagonal distance calculation methods in heuristic search algorithms. The Morpeth flood event that occurred in 2008 in the UK is used as a case study, and a highly accurate and efficient 2D hydrodynamic model is adopted to discuss the flood characteristics in flood plains. Two flood hazard assessment approaches [i.e., empirical and mechanics-based and experimental calibrated (M&E)] are chosen to study human instability. A comprehensive analysis shows that extreme events are better identified with mechanics-based and experimental calibration methods than with an empirical method. The result of M&E is used as the initial condition for the Morpeth evacuation scenario. Evacuation path planning in Morpeth shows that this algorithm can realize shortest route planning with multiple starting points and ending points at the microscale. These findings are of significance for flood risk management and emergency evacuation research.

     

Implementation/optimization of moving least squares response surfaces for approximation of hurricane/storm surge and wave responses

One of the important recent advances in the field of hurricane/storm modelling has been the development of high-fidelity numerical simulation models for reliable and accurate prediction of wave and surge responses. The computational cost associated with these models has simultaneously created an incentive for researchers to investigate surrogate modelling (i.e. metamodeling) and interpolation/regression methodologies to efficiently approximate hurricane/storm responses exploiting existing databases of high-fidelity simulations. Moving least squares (MLS) response surfaces were recently proposed as such an approximation methodology, providing the ability to efficiently describe different responses of interest (such as surge and wave heights) in a large coastal region that may involve thousands of points for which the hurricane impact needs to be estimated. This paper discusses further implementation details and focuses on optimization characteristics of this surrogate modelling approach. The approximation of different response characteristics is considered, and special attention is given to predicting the storm surge for inland locations, for which the possibility of the location remaining dry needs to be additionally addressed. The optimal selection of the basis functions for the response surface and of the parameters of the MLS character of the approximation is discussed in detail, and the impact of the number of high-fidelity simulations informing the surrogate model is also investigated. Different normalizations of the response as well as choices for the objective function for the optimization problem are considered, and their impact on the accuracy of the resultant (under these choices) surrogate model is examined. Details for implementation of the methodology for efficient coastal risk assessment are reviewed, and the influence in the analysis of the model prediction error introduced through the surrogate modelling is discussed. A case study is provided, utilizing a recently developed database of high-fidelity simulations for the Hawaiian Islands.     

Division into economic districts,regional planning and urban planning,the Soviet case

Research of the interrelation between regional planning, division into economic districts and urban-planning, division into economic districts and urban planning is here emphasised. In the USSR development of a network of territorial economic complexes, economic districts including subregions of the II and III order, economic subregions and microdistricts is continuous. The outlook of regional planning is defined by the elaboration of its scientific theory including the geographical concept of regional planning. The use of geographical methods widens the scientific basis for the development of a systems approach and improves forecasting, the choice of aims and strategy of developing production, population distribution and the solution of ecological problems. The efficiency of regional planning depends not only on purely economic advantages, but on a more sensible use of nature. Regional planning is concerned with bio-economic systems, and must avoid conflict between the most important subsystems, natural and anthropogenic. Preservation of ecological balance has become the most important task of regional planning. When locating industrial enterprises in the process of regional planning, ecological factors are taken into account to an ever-increasing degree. The main tasks of regional planning concerning the distribution of agriculture stem from the aim of interrelated development of all elements of the agrarian and industrial complex. During the scientific and technical revolution the distribution of production orientates more and more and not towards individual towns but towards a system of populated areas. Systematic improvement of conurbations and their transformation into group systems of populated areas, regulated according to plan and having a broader economic and territorial base, are the most important task of regional planning and urban development.     

An agent-based model for risk-based flood incident management

Effective flood incident management (FIM) requires successful operation of complex, interacting human and technological systems. A dynamic agent-based model of FIM processes has been developed to provide new insights which can be used for policy analysis and other practical applications. The model integrates remotely sensed information on topography, buildings and road networks with empirical survey data to fit characteristics of specific communities. The multiagent simulation has been coupled with a hydrodynamic model to estimate the vulnerability of individuals to flooding under different storm surge conditions, defence breach scenarios, flood warning times and evacuation strategies. A case study in the coastal town of Towyn in the United Kingdom has demonstrated the capacity of the model to analyse the risks of flooding to people, support flood emergency planning and appraise the benefits of flood incident management measures.     

江西省丹霞地貌发育规律及旅游区划研究

江西省燕山-喜马拉雅运动以块断作用为主,形成了一系列断裂隆起带和断陷盆地,白垩纪、早第三纪红层发育齐全.丹霞地貌主要发育于上白垩统紫红色含钙粗碎屑岩中,受盆缘断裂和中幼年河流控制,是晚第三纪以来新构造运动间歇性隆升,伴随着断裂切割、流水冲刷和风化剥蚀的产物.根据陆地卫星TM图像解译和野外实地调查,查明了全省共有丹霞地貌景观资源123处,其中新发现景点78处.丹霞地貌景观主要分布在该省周边丘陵低山区,明显受不同级别河流的流域控制,具带状分布规律,可划分出9个景观集中分布区域.赣东、赣东南丹霞地貌景观最为密集,结合红色旅游和客家文化特色,该区具有强劲的丹霞地貌旅游开发潜力.     

Location-allocation modeling for emergency evacuation planning with GIS and remote sensing: A case study of Northeast Bangladesh

This work developed models to identify optimal spatial distribution of emergency evacuation centers(EECs) such as schools, colleges, hospitals, and fire stations to improve flood emergency planning in the Sylhet region of northeastern Bangladesh.The use of location-allocation models(LAMs) for evacuation in regard to flood victims is essential to minimize disaster risk.In the first step, flood susceptibility maps were developed using machine learning models(MLMs), including: Levenberg–Marquardt back propagation(LM-BP) neural network and decision trees(DT) and multi-criteria decision making(MCDM) method.Performance of the MLMs and MCDM techniques were assessed considering the area under the receiver operating characteristic(AUROC) curve.Mathematical approaches in a geographic information system(GIS) for four well-known LAM problems affecting emergency rescue time are proposed: maximal covering location problem(MCLP), the maximize attendance(MA), p-median problem(PMP), and the location set covering problem(LSCP).The results showed that existing EECs were not optimally distributed, and that some areas were not adequately served by EECs(i.e., not all demand points could be reached within a 60-min travel time).We concluded that the proposed models can be used to improve planning of the distribution of EECs, and that application of the models could contribute to reducing human casualties, property losses, and improve emergency operation.     

Aims and implementation in British urban and regional planning

Failure to fully understand or recognise crucial but culturally-determined British dimensions has led to confusion and error even among the British geographers in understanding and contributing to, urban and regional planning. This point assumes more rather than less significance in the context of a discussion between British and Soviet geographers. This paper therefore examines in part one, three fundamental features of the British system of urban and regional planning and then proceeds in part two to focus on the aims and their implementation. It concludes with a reference to the nature of the relationship between planning and geography.