Temporal variations in the tidal response of the medium in the vicinities of the sources of catastrophic earthquakes

The idea of predicting earthquakes by continuously monitoring temporal variations in the tidal response of the medium was suggested by Beaumont and Berger in 1974. However, it became possible to implement the idea only recently. This possibility has arisen due to the deployment of Global Seismic Network (GSN), which collects the data on tidal tilts and gravity in the epicenters of strong earthquakes before and after the strongest events. In this paper, we present the results of model analytical and numerical calculations of the elastic displacements of the Earth’s surface caused by the earthquakes and their preparatory processes. The analytical calculations are limited to the model of a uniform elastic halfspace; the numerical calculations, in addition to this model, also cover the models with radially heterogeneous distributions of elastic moduli in the crust and in the upper mantle, which are determined by the PREM model. We describe the results of modeling temporal variations in the tidal response of the medium in the vicinity of the source of a catastrophic earthquake. The model of seismic source is specified by the length and the orientations of the fault plane and by the value of the discontinuity in the tangential component of the displacement vector on the opposite sides of the fault. The model is based on the GPS data on the horizontal and vertical displacements of the Earth’s surface. We suggest the method for determining temporal changes in the tidal response of the medium in the seismically active regions. This method improves the sensitivity and time resolution of the standard techniques of sliding-window analysis by more than an order of magnitude. The comparative analysis of temporal variations in the tidal response of the medium in the zones of the magnitude 9 earthquake in Japan (March 9, 2011) illustrates the described approach.

     

Temporal variations in the tidal response of the medium in the vicinities of the sources of catastrophic earthquakes

The idea of predicting earthquakes by continuously monitoring temporal variations in the tidal response of the medium was suggested by Beaumont and Berger in 1974. However, it became possible to implement the idea only recently. This possibility has arisen due to the deployment of Global Seismic Network (GSN), which collects the data on tidal tilts and gravity in the epicenters of strong earthquakes before and after the strongest events. In this paper, we present the results of model analytical and numerical calculations of the elastic displacements of the Earth??s surface caused by the earthquakes and their preparatory processes. The analytical calculations are limited to the model of a uniform elastic halfspace; the numerical calculations, in addition to this model, also cover the models with radially heterogeneous distributions of elastic moduli in the crust and in the upper mantle, which are determined by the PREM model. We describe the results of modeling temporal variations in the tidal response of the medium in the vicinity of the source of a catastrophic earthquake. The model of seismic source is specified by the length and the orientations of the fault plane and by the value of the discontinuity in the tangential component of the displacement vector on the opposite sides of the fault. The model is based on the GPS data on the horizontal and vertical displacements of the Earth??s surface. We suggest the method for determining temporal changes in the tidal response of the medium in the seismically active regions. This method improves the sensitivity and time resolution of the standard techniques of sliding-window analysis by more than an order of magnitude. The comparative analysis of temporal variations in the tidal response of the medium in the zones of the magnitude 9 earthquake in Japan (March 9, 2011) illustrates the described approach.     

小波分析在井水位的气压和潮汐改正中的应用

本文将小波分析方法应用于地下水位观测资料的气压和潮汐改正中。该方法利用小波将气压观测和理论重力固体潮资料分解为不同频段的时间序列,用最小二乘法求出气压和固体潮不同频段的响应系数,以消除气压和固体潮对水位的影响。用该方法计算的结果与一般线形回归分析方法得到的结果进行对比,发现该方法能更有效地分析和消除气压和固体潮对地下水位的影响。小波分解在井水位气压、潮汐改正中的应用以波动理论和振动理论为基础,它不仅考虑了观测资料的频率域特性,而且还能直接在时间域内计算出不同频率范围的气压系数和潮汐系数,具有明确的物理意义。     

Application of Wavelet Decomposition to Removing Barometric and Tidal Response in Borehole Water Level

Wavelet decomposition is used to analyze barometric fluctuation and earth tidal response in borehole water level changes. We apply wavelet analysis method to the decomposition of barometric fluctuation and earth tidal response into several temporal series in different frequency ranges. Barometric and tidal coefficients in different frequency ranges are computed with least squares method to remove barometric and tidal response. Comparing this method with general linear regression analysis method, we find wavelet analysis method can efficiently remove barometric and earth tidal response in borehole water level. Wavelet analysis method is based on wave theory and vibration theories. It not only considers the frequency characteristic of the observed data but also the temporal characteristic, and it can get barometric and tidal coefficients in different frequency ranges. This method has definite physical meaning.     

Application of Wavelet Decomposition to Removing Barometric and Borehole Water Tidal Response in Level

Wavelet decomposition is used to analyze barometric fluctuation and earth tidal response in borehole water level changes. We apply wavelet analysis method to the decomposition of barometric fluctuation and earth tidal response into several temporal series in different frequency ranges. Barometric and tidal coefficients in different frequency ranges are computed with least squares method to remove barometric and tidal response. Comparing this method with general linear regression analysis method, we find wavelet analysis method can efficiently remove barometric and earth tidal response in borehole water level. Wavelet analysis method is based on wave theory and vibration theories. It not only considers the frequency characteristic of the observed data but also the temporal characteristic, and it can get barometric and tidal coefficients in different frequency ranges. This method has definite physical meaning.     

Changes in the tidal response of the medium before strong earthquakes

The idea of Beaumont and Berger [Beaumont and Berger, 1974] about the possibility of earthquake prediction by means of continuous monitoring of temporal changes in tidal response was able to achieve effective application only in recent years after the appearance of GPS-data on the Earth’s surface displacement field in the seismic regions and the Global Seismographic Network (GSN), containing tidal, tiltmetric, and gravimetric data of measurements in the epicentral areas. The results of statistical analysis of the tidal response of the medium in the vicinity of the epicenters of the earthquakes in Peru (2001), in Sumatra (2004), and in Chile (2010) are presented.     

Time variations of the stresses in the source region of the Tohoku earthquake of March 11, 2011 (<Emphasis Type="Italic">M</Emphasis> = 9) from tidal response data

The idea of forecasting the earthquakes by continuous monitoring the time variations of tidal responses was suggested by E. Nishimura in 1950. However, the implementation of this idea has only become possible with the deployment of the GSN and F-net global seismic networks. Below, we present the new method for identifying the time variations of tidal response of the medium in seismically active regions using the data from these networks. We show that our approach significantly increases the sensitivity and time resolution of the standard methods of moving spectral analysis. The analysis of the data from the horizontal pendulums which record the northward tilts demonstrates the slow growth of the tidal tilts during six years before the earthquake, which is followed by the instantaneous drop of the amplitudes at the moment of the earthquake. During four years after this drop, the tidal amplitudes remained at a noticeably lower level than their average preearthquake values. These changes in the tidal amplitudes indicate the nonlinear response of the medium in the presence of large tectonic     

Decadal evolution of tidal flats and channels in the Outer Weser estuary,Germany

This study focuses on the medium scale morphodynamics of the tidal flat and channel system Fedderwarder Priel, located in the Outer Weser estuary (Wadden Sea, Germany). Tidal channels and adjacent flats are highly dynamic systems whose morphologic evolution are driven by tidal, wind, and wave forcings. These coastal environments are an important ecosystem and react to changes in hydrodynamic conditions in various spatial and temporal scales. Based on annual medium-resolution digital elevation models from 1998 to 2016, we describe changes in the surface area over depth with hypsometries and use vertical dynamic trends in order to analyze and visualize the morphologic evolution of the Fedderwarder Priel and adjacent tidal channels. It is shown that several intertidal flats rise in the order of 1.3 to 5.6 cm/year. The findings indicate that the Outer Weser estuary was not in an equilibrium state for the investigated period, and tidal flats accreted with a rate exceeding mean sea level rise.     

维尼迪科夫调和分析对大甸子井水位潮汐因子和相位的气象影响研究

利用维尼迪柯夫潮汐调和分析方法计算内蒙古大甸子井水位原始资料和剔除气压、降雨资料后的潮汐因子和相位。结果显示,两种情况下得到的潮汐因子和相位具有较好的一致性,说明采用维尼迪柯夫潮汐调和分析方法得到的结果基本不受降水、气压等因素的影响。这对于缺少气压和降水等辅助观测的水位观测资料,使用原始资料进行维尼迪科夫潮汐调和分析,可获取比较可靠的潮汐因子和相位参数。     

Local and remote response of the North Sea dynamics to morphodynamic changes in the Wadden Sea

The response of the tidal system in the southern North Sea to morphodynamic changes was investigated in a modelling study using fine resolution bathymetric observations available for 1982–2011. The Semi-implicit Cross-scale Hydroscience Integrated System Model (SCHISM) was set up for the different sets of bathymetries. One set of bathymetry was compiled from a large number of bathymetric measurements over many years, while the other two reflected bathymetry state in the area of Wadden Sea during 2000 and 2011, respectively. The temporal and spatial evolution of bathymetry was dominated by migration of tidal channels. The M4 tide showed larger sensitivity to bathymetric change in the Wadden Sea than the M2 tide, whereas the structure of the latter remained rather robust. The largest change of the tidal wave due to the differences in bathymetries was located off the North Frisian Wadden Sea. Traces of changes were also found far away from the regions of their origin because the tidal waves in the North Sea propagate the local disturbances basin-wide. This illustrated an efficient physical mechanism of teleconnectivity, i.e. effecting the local responses to the larger-scale or remote change of ocean bottom caused by erosion and deposition. The tidal distortion resulting from the relatively small bathymetric changes was substantial, particularly in the coastal zone. This is a manifestation of the nonlinear tidal transformation in shallow oceans and is crucial for the sediment transport and the morphodynamic feedback, because of the altered tidal asymmetry.     

由多台定点长水管倾斜资料构建形变场时空演化图像的初步尝试及应用

尝试利用多台定点地倾斜形变资料构建形变场时空动态演化图形的方法,对中国大陆47个定点形变台水管倾斜仪资料进行分析处理,构建了地倾斜形变场时空演化分布图像.以2001年11月14日昆仑山口西8.1级地震为例,研究了地震前后水管倾斜资料的时空演化特征.结果显示在地震前后较多台站水管倾斜仪的日均值都出现了趋势上的较大变化,东西向日均值、南北向日均值和南北向潮汐因子的空间分布也都出现了大范围的变化,而东西向M2波的潮汐因子没有出现较明显的变化.随着定点形变台站的建设和资料的积累,该方法可以构建每月或者每周形变场的变化,有望用于地震预报工作.     

On the solution stability in the problem of determining the time variations of the tidal responses of a medium in the vicinity of the sources of severe earthquakes

In (Molodenskii M.S. et al., 2016), the data from horizontal pendulums recording the tilts in the closest vicinity of the Great Tohoku earthquake of March 11, 2011 in Japan were analyzed. A significantly improved method for statistical analysis of the observational data enabled the authors to reveal a slow growth in tidal tilts during a period of six years before the earthquake, which was superseded by an instantaneous drop in the amplitudes at the time of the earthquake. After this, during the subsequent four years, the tidal amplitudes have remained at a significantly lower level than their average values before the earthquake. These changes in tidal amplitudes testify to the nonlinear character of the tidal response of the medium in the presence of large tectonic stresses: as is well known, the linear relationship between stresses and strains in a real medium is only the case for stresses that are far below the yield stress. When the stresses approach the failure limit, two counteracting effects come into play: (1) the shear moduli in some areas decrease as a result of the avalanche growth of the crack formation processes, and (2) the moduli increase due to the compression in the other areas. Irrespective of which particular effect of these two is predominant, in either case the linearity of the relationship between the stresses and strains should be violated. This violation cannot but affect the amplitudes of the tidal tilts and strains characterizing this relationship in the presence of fairly low additional tidal stresses (i.e., the derivative of the off-diagonal stress tensor components with respect to the same components of the strain tensor). Since there is presently a sufficiently dense network of the horizontal pendulums recording the tilts (the global IRIS network and the particularly dense F-NET network in Japan), monitoring the changes in the amplitudes of tidal tilts can be considered as a key instrument for capturing the signs of the approach of tectonic stresses to their critical values. The increase in tidal amplitudes before the Tohoku earthquake and their drop at the moment of the earthquake, which were revealed by us, as well as the constancy of the amplitudes during four years after the event, unambiguously indicate that the accumulation of tectonic stresses caused the growth in tidal amplitudes, whereas the stress release by the earthquake caused their diminution. This does not however mean that stress accumulation is accompanied by a decrease in the elastic moduli and that the release of stresses is accompanied by the growth of elastic moduli all over the source area. As was shown in (Molodenskii M.S. et al., 2012), even in the simplest model of spatially homogeneous variations of elastic modules, the variations in tidal tilts are an odd function of the distance from the epicenter. Therefore, irrespective of whether the elastic moduli decrease or increase, the amplitudes of tidal tilts should decrease in some areas and increase in other areas. Hence, the very fact of the growth of tidal tilt amplitudes with time cannot be considered as a sign of the growth of tectonic stresses. To be positive about the latter, one should make sure that the consistent (unidirectional) changes have been observed during a sufficiently long time interval and that their magnitudes were significantly larger than the measurement errors. Hence, it is important to reliably estimate the errors of the observational data.     

Modeling of changes in the tidal response of the environment to an impending earthquake

It has become possible to apply efficiently Beaumont and Berger’s idea (1974) about the possibility to predict earthquakes using continuous monitoring of temporal variations of the tidal response only in recent years, with the appearance of GPS data on the field of the Earth’s surface displacements in seismic regions, as well as with the appearance of the Global Seismographic Network (GSN) containing the tidal tiltmetric and gravimetric data in the vicinities of the epicenters of strong earthquakes in Peru (2001), Sumatra (2004), and Chile (2010) before and after the strongest seismic events. Below, we present the results of the modeling of temporal variations of the tidal response of the environment in the vicinities of the focus of catastrophic earthquakes. The model of the focus includes data on the expansion and orientation of the fault surface, as well as on the discontinuity of the tangential component of the displacement vector on the opposite shores. The model is constructed from the GPS data on horizontal and vertical displacements of the Earth’s surface.     

Tectonic stress accumulation in the region of the Kuril–Kamchatka Island Arc system

The time variations in the tidal response of the medium in 2011–2015 according to the measurements at the global seismographic network (GSN) in Kamchatka are considered. Based on the data from the horizontal pendulums recording the eastward tilts at the station, it is established that there was a linear growth in the tidal tilt amplitudes up to May 24, 2013 due to the changes in the elastic moduli caused by tectonic stress accumulation. The growth phase was followed by the decline in the tidal tilt amplitudes induced by the release of stresses after the Sea-of-Okhotsk earthquake.     

川06井水位固体潮效应变化初探

通过分析承压井孔储水效应对井水位固体潮效应(井潮)的影响, 重点研究了含水层储水系数S和导水系数T对潮汐排水响应的影响, 以探讨井潮变化形成的初步原因. 以川06井为例, 通过对实测井孔水位数据进行潮汐分析, 得到井孔储水效应引起的相对振幅A和相位移η, 进而分析A和η随时间变化的规律以及两者之间的关系. 结果表明, 井潮变化主要受井孔储水效应变化影响; 在潮汐排水响应阶段, 井潮主要受含水层导水系数T(或渗透系数K)影响, 而受储水系数S影响较小.      

The influence of time-dependent wind on gravity-wave propagation in the middle atmosphere

Ray-tracing techniques are used to computationally investigate the propagation of gravity waves through the middle atmosphere, as characterized by the vertically varying CIRA-86 wind and temperature models, plus a tidal wind model that varies temporally as well as vertically. For the wave parameters studied here, the background wind variation has a much stronger influence on the ray path and changes in wave characteristics than does the temperature variation. The temporal variation of the tidal component of the wind changes the observed frequency, sometimes substantially, while leaving the intrinsic frequency unaltered. It also renders temporary any critical levels that occur in the tidal region. Different starting times for the rays relative to the tidal phase provide different propagation environments, so that the temporary critical levels appear at different heights. The lateral component of the tidal wind is shown to advect propagating wave packets; the maximum lateral displacement of a packet varies inversely with its vertical group velocity. Time-dependent effects are more pronounced in local winter than in summer.     

Modeling the preservation potential of tidal flat sedimentary records,Jiangsu coast,eastern China

A forward modeling approach is proposed to simulate the preservation potential of tidal flat deposits. The preservation potential is expressed as a function of net deposition rate and a factor that represents the vertical flux of suspended load, or seabed lowering during erosion periods associated with bedload transport. The model takes into account a number of geometric parameters of a tidal flat sediment system and sediment dynamic processes. The former includes high water level, total sediment supply, the annual rate of the supply, the ratio of mud to bilk sediment in the supply, the bed slope of the tidal flat profile, as well as the slope of the stratigraphic boundary; the latter includes spring-neap cycles of tidal water level changes, boundary layer processes, resuspension of fine-grained sediments, bedload transport due to tidal currents, and bed elevation changes in response to sediment movement. Using this model, numerical experiments are carried out for a tidal flat system on the Jiangsu coast, eastern China, with the input data being derived from literature and from a series of sediment cores collected along an onshore–offshore transect. The results show that the preservation potential is highest over the upper part of the inter-tidal zone and in the lower part of the sub-tidal zone, and lowest near mean sea level and at low water on springs. The preservation potential tends to decrease with the advancement of the shoreline. The bed slope, tidal current direction and resuspension intensity influence the spatial distributions of the preservation potential. An implication of these results is that the temporal resolution of the tidal flat record depends upon the location and depth within the deposit; this should be taken into account in the interpretation of sedimentary records. Further studies are required to improve the model, on the hydrodynamic processes associated with extremely shallow water depths, sediment dynamic modeling of bed slope and profile shape, and the combined action of tides and waves for sediment transport on tidal flats.     

Modelling the hydrodynamics of offshore sandbanks

This paper describes the details of a quasi-three-dimensional model (3DBANK), which has been developed to investigate medium and long-term morphological evolution and development of offshore sandbanks. The model is based on a three-dimensional tidal module using the Galerkin-eigenfunction method, but also includes four sub-modules to compute: the instantaneous bedform characteristics from which the temporal and spatial variations of the shear stresses at the sea bed can be derived; the suspended sediment concentration through the water column; the bed-load and suspended sediment fluxes at a point-in-plan; and the resulting morphological changes, respectively. The model also includes the effects of the wind and waves at the sea surface, as well as the wave–current interaction (WCI), and operates with full hydrodynamic and morphodynamic interaction. The components of the model were tested against laboratory and field data, and the complete model was then applied to Middlekerke Bank off the Flemish coast where extensive field measurements were taken during the European Community (EC) funded Circulation and Sediment Transport Around Banks (CSTAB) Project using various advanced instrumentation including STABLE and HF OSCR. Comparisons of the model results with the field measurements and observations show that the model is capable of reproducing the current and wave-induced bedforms, bed roughness, tidal currents and tidal residuals around the sandbank satisfactorily, and can be used to study the long-term sandbank evolution under various offshore conditions. This paper, however, focuses on the hydrodynamic aspects of the model, while the details of the morphological components will be given in a companion paper.     

Tidal variation of total suspended solids over the Yangtze Bank based on the geostationary ocean color imager

Hourly mapping by a Geostationary Ocean Color Imager was used to reveal the spatial pattern and tidal variation of total suspended solids(TSS) over the Yangtze Bank in the Yellow and East China Seas during the winter. The TSS form a tongueshaped structure, which decreases further offshore in a stepwise manner. The stepwise change is separated by two fronts of TSS,which are located near the 20-m and 50-m isobaths. The tidal variation of TSS concentration during the study period is evident and can be divided into three stages: decay, maintenance, and growth. Compared with the relatively stationary TSS during the maintenance stage, drastic changes exist during the decay and growth stages. In terms of tide-induced mixing, the dynamic analysis shows that both the topography and the tidal currents play an important role in the spatio-temporal variation of TSS during the tidal period. In particular, spatial distribution is primarily determined by the topography, whereas the temporal variations in tidal scale are determined by the tidal currents.     

2017年新疆精河MS6.6地震遥感大气温度变化特征分析

在中国地震台网中心2016年底利用热红外遥感技术预测2017年新疆西部地区为潜在M_S 6.6±0.2地震危险区的基础上,分析2017年8月9日精河M_S6.6地震临震时段引潮力变化,并选用18时（UTC）中国大陆近地表50m高度处的遥感大气温度数据,以震前引潮力值最高点时刻（8月1日）为时间背景,获取地震前后（8月2~13日）连续的大气温度日增量分布图像,跟踪分析精河M_S6.6地震短临大气温度变化。结果显示：地震发生在天体引潮力由高峰—低谷连续周期变化的低谷时段,而大气温度变化过程显示,在全国大范围内,仅震中附近大气温度升高明显,其异常演化经历了起始—加强—高峰—衰减—再增强—发震—平静的动态过程。增温过程与潮汐变化具有同步性,这表明引潮力对本次地震具有触诱发的作用,而大气温度变化反映了本次地震地应力的变化过程,也说明在地震预测实践中,从中、短临多时间尺度综合分析遥感大气温度和引潮力变化,将有助于提高地震预测能力。