Studying the sources of cosmic reionization with 21-cm fluctuations

We explore the ability of measurements of the 21-cm power spectrum during reionization to enable the simultaneous reconstruction of the reionization history and the properties of the ionizing sources. For various sets of simulated 21-cm observations, we perform maximum likelihood fits in order to constrain the reionization and galaxy formation histories. We employ a flexible six-parameter model that parametrizes the uncertainties in the properties of high-redshift galaxies. The computational speed needed is attained through the use of an analytical model that is in reasonable agreement with numerical simulations of reionization. We find that one-year observations, with the Murchison Widefield Array, should measure the cosmic ionized fraction to  ∼1 per cent  accuracy at the very end of reionization, and a few per cent accuracy around the mid-point of reionization. The mean halo mass of the ionizing sources should be measurable to 10 per cent accuracy when reionization is 2/3 of the way through, and to 20 per cent accuracy throughout the central stage of reionization, if this mass is anywhere in the range 1/3 to 100 billion solar masses.     

The difference PDF of 21-cm fluctuations: a powerful statistical tool for probing cosmic reionization

A new generation of radio telescopes are currently being built with the goal of tracing the cosmic distribution of atomic hydrogen at redshifts 6–15 through its 21-cm line. The observations will probe the large-scale brightness fluctuations sourced by ionization fluctuations during cosmic reionization. Since detailed maps will be difficult to extract due to noise and foreground emission, efforts have focused on a statistical detection of the 21-cm fluctuations. During cosmic reionization, these fluctuations are highly non-Gaussian and thus more information can be extracted than just the one-dimensional function that is usually considered, i.e. the correlation function. We calculate a two-dimensional function that if measured observationally would allow a more thorough investigation of the properties of the underlying ionizing sources. This function is the probability distribution function (PDF) of the difference in the 21-cm brightness temperature between two points, as a function of the separation between the points. While the standard correlation function is determined by a complicated mixture of contributions from density and ionization fluctuations, we show that the difference PDF holds the key to separately measuring the statistical properties of the ionized regions.     

The impact of H i in galaxies on 21-cm intensity fluctuations during the reionization epoch

We investigate the impact of neutral hydrogen (H  i ) in galaxies on the statistics of 21-cm fluctuations using seminumerical modelling. Following the reionization of hydrogen, the H  i content of the Universe is dominated by damped absorption systems (DLAs), with a cosmic density in H  i that is observed to be constant at a level equal to ∼2 per cent of the cosmic baryon density from   z ∼ 1  to   z ∼ 5  . We show that extrapolation of this constant fraction into the reionization epoch results in a reduction in the amplitude of 21-cm fluctuations over a range of spatial scales. We further find that consideration of H  i in galaxies/DLAs reduces the prominence of the H  ii region induced shoulder in the 21-cm power spectrum (PS), and hence modifies the scale dependence of 21-cm fluctuations. We also estimate the 21-cm–galaxy cross PS and show that the cross PS changes sign on scales corresponding to the H  ii regions. From consideration of the sensitivity for forthcoming low-frequency arrays, we find that the effects of H  i in galaxies/DLAs on the statistics of 21-cm fluctuations will be significant with respect to the precision of a PS or cross PS measurement. In addition, since overdense regions are reionized first we demonstrate that the cross-correlation between galaxies and 21-cm emission changes sign at the end of the reionization era, providing an alternative avenue to pinpoint the end of reionization. The sum of our analysis indicates that the H  i content of the galaxies that reionize the universe will need to be considered in detailed modelling of the 21-cm intensity PS in order to correctly interpret measurements from forthcoming low-frequency arrays.     

A method to measure the mass of damped Lyα absorber host galaxies using fluctuations in 21-cm emission

Observations of damped Lyα absorbers (DLAs) indicate that the fraction of hydrogen in its neutral form (H  i ) is significant by mass at all redshifts. This gas represents the reservoir of material that is available for star formation at late times. As a result, observational identification of the systems in which this neutral hydrogen resides is an important missing ingredient in models of galaxy formation. Precise identification of DLA host mass via traditional clustering studies is not practical owing to the small numbers of known systems being spread across sparsely distributed sightlines. However, following the completion of re-ionization, 21-cm surface brightness fluctuations will be dominated by neutral hydrogen in DLAs. No individual DLAs could be detected in 21-cm emission. Rather, observations of these fluctuations will measure the combined clustering signal from all DLAs within a large volume. We show that measurement of the spherically averaged power spectrum of 21-cm intensity fluctuations due to DLAs could be used to measure the galaxy bias for DLA host galaxies when combined with an independent measurement of the cosmological H  i mass density from quasar absorption studies. Utilizing this technique, the low-frequency arrays now under construction could measure the characteristic DLA host mass with a statistical precision as low as 0.3 dex at z ≳ 4. In addition, high signal-to-noise ratio observations of the peculiar-motion-induced anisotropy of the power spectrum would facilitate measurement of both the DLA host mass and the cosmic H  i density directly from 21-cm fluctuations. By exploiting this anisotropy, a second generation of low-frequency arrays with an order of magnitude increase in collecting area could measure the values of cosmic H  i density and DLA host mass, with uncertainties of a few per cent and a few tens of per cent, respectively.     

Modification of the 21-cm power spectrum by quasars during the epoch of reionization

We assess the effect of a population of high-redshift quasars on the 21-cm power spectrum during the epoch of reionization. Our approach is to implement a seminumerical scheme to calculate the three-dimensional structure of ionized regions surrounding massive haloes at high redshift. We include the ionizing influence of luminous quasars by populating a simulated overdensity field with quasars using a Monte Carlo Markov Chain algorithm. We find that quasars modify both the amplitude and shape of the power spectrum at a level which is of the same order as the fractional contribution to reionization. The modification is found both at constant redshift and at constant global neutral fraction, and arises because ionizing photons produced by quasars are biased relative to the density field at a level that is higher than stellar ionizing photons. The modification of the power spectrum is likely to be small, rendering the effect of quasars difficult to isolate. However, we find the modification of the power spectrum by quasars to be at a level that is comparable to the precision expected for future low-frequency telescopes. Correct interpretation of observations will therefore require the effect of quasars to be considered, and our results imply that quasar ionization will need to be included in detailed modelling of observed 21-cm power spectra.     

Baryonic acoustic oscillations in 21-cm emission: a probe of dark energy out to high redshifts

Low-frequency observatories are currently being constructed with the goal of detecting redshifted 21-cm emission from the epoch of reionization. These observatories will also be able to detect intensity fluctuations in the cumulative 21-cm emission after reionization, from hydrogen in unresolved damped Lyα absorbers (such as gas-rich galaxies) down to a redshift z ∼ 3.5. The inferred power spectrum of 21-cm fluctuations at all redshifts will show acoustic oscillations, whose comoving scale can be used as a standard ruler to infer the evolution of the equation of state for the dark energy. We find that the first generation of low-frequency experiments (such as MWA or LOFAR) will be able to constrain the acoustic scale to within a few per cent in a redshift window just prior to the end of the reionization era, provided that foregrounds can be removed over frequency bandpasses of ≳8 MHz. This sensitivity to the acoustic scale is comparable to the best current measurements from galaxy redshift surveys, but at much higher redshifts. Future extensions of the first-generation experiments (involving an order of magnitude increase in the antennae number of the MWA) could reach sensitivities below 1 per cent in several redshift windows and could be used to study the dark energy in the unexplored redshift regime of 3.5 ≲ z ≲ 12. Moreover, new experiments with antennae designed to operate at higher frequencies would allow precision measurements (≲1 per cent) of the acoustic peak to be made at more moderate redshifts (1.5 ≲ z ≲ 3.5), where they would be competitive with ambitious spectroscopic galaxy surveys covering more than 1000 deg². Together with other data sets, observations of 21-cm fluctuations will allow full coverage of the acoustic scale from the present time out to z ∼ 12.     

Redshifted 21-cm observations of high-redshift quasar proximity zones

The introduction of low-frequency radio arrays is expected to revolutionize the study of the reionization epoch. Observation of the contrast in redshifted 21-cm emission between a large H  ii region and the surrounding neutral intergalactic medium (IGM) will be the simplest and most easily interpreted signature. However, the highest redshift quasars known are thought to reside in an ionized IGM. Using a semi-analytic model we describe the redshifted 21-cm signal from the IGM surrounding quasars discovered using the i -drop-out technique (i.e. quasars at   z ∼ 6  ). We argue that while quasars at   z < 6.5  seem to reside in the post-overlap IGM, they will still provide valuable probes of the late stages of the overlap era because the light-travel time across a quasar proximity zone should be comparable to the duration of overlap. For redshifted 21-cm observations within a 32-MHz bandpass, we find that the subtraction of a spectrally smooth foreground will not remove spectral features due to the proximity zone. These features could be used to measure the neutral hydrogen content of the IGM during the late stages of reionization. The density of quasars at   z ∼ 6  is now well constrained. We use the measured quasar luminosity function to estimate the prospects for discovery of high-redshift quasars in fields that will be observed by the Murchison Widefield Array.     

Foregrounds for 21-cm observations of neutral gas at high redshift

We investigate a number of potential foregrounds for an ambitious goal of future radio telescopes such as the Square Kilometer Array (SKA) and the Low Frequency Array (LOFAR): spatial tomography of neutral gas at high redshift in 21-cm emission. While the expected temperature fluctuations due to unresolved radio point sources is highly uncertain, we point out that free–free emission from the ionizing haloes that reionized the Universe should define a minimal bound. This emission is likely to swamp the expected brightness temperature fluctuations, making proposed detections of the angular patchwork of 21-cm emission across the sky unlikely to be viable. Hα observations with JWST could place an upper bound on the contribution of high-redshift sources to the free–free background. An alternative approach is to discern the topology of reionization from spectral features due to 21-cm emission along a pencil-beam slice. This requires tight control of the frequency-dependence of the beam in order to prevent foreground sources from contributing excessive variance. We also investigate potential contamination by galactic and extragalactic radio recombination lines (RRLs). These are unlikely to be show-stoppers, although little is known about the distribution of RRLs away from the Galactic plane. The mini-halo emission signal is always less than that of the intergalactic medium (IGM), making mini-haloes unlikely to be detectable. If they are seen, it will be only in the very earliest stages of structure formation at high redshift, when the spin temperature of the IGM has not yet decoupled from the cosmic microwave background.     

The contribution of the IGM and minihaloes to the 21-cm signal of reionization

We study the statistical properties of the cosmological 21-cm signal from both the intergalactic medium (IGM) and minihaloes, using a reionization simulation that includes a self-consistent treatment of minihalo photoevaporation. We consider two models for minihalo formation and three typical thermal states of the IGM – heating purely by ionization, heating from both ionizing and Lyα photons and a maximal 'strong heating' model. We find that the signal from the IGM is almost always dominant over that from minihaloes. In our calculation, the differential brightness temperature,  δ T _b,  of minihaloes is never larger than 2 mK. Although there are indeed some differences in the signals from the minihaloes and from the IGM, even with the planned generation of radio telescopes it will be unfeasible to detect them. However, minihaloes significantly affect the ionization state of the IGM and the corresponding 21-cm flux.     

The correlation between star formation and 21-cm emission during the reionization epoch

Reionization is thought to be dominated by low-mass galaxies, while direct observations of resolved galaxies probe only the most massive, rarest objects. The cross-correlation between fluctuations in the surface brightness of the cumulative Lyα emission (which serves as a proxy for the star formation rate) and the redshifted 21-cm signal from neutral hydrogen in the intergalactic medium (IGM) will directly probe the causal link between the production of ionizing photons in galaxies and the reionization of the IGM. We discuss the prospects for detecting this cross-correlation for unresolved galaxies. We find that on angular scales ≲10 arcmin detection will be practical using wide-field near-infrared (near-IR) imaging from space in combination with the forthcoming Mileura Wide-field Array – Low Frequency Demonstrator. When redshifted 21-cm observations of the neutral IGM are combined with space-based near-IR imaging of Lyα emission, the detection on angular scales ≲3 arcmin will be limited by the sensitivity of the 21-cm signal, even when a small-aperture optical telescope (∼2 m) and a moderate field of view (∼10 deg²) are used. On scales ≳3 arcmin, the measurement of cross-correlation will be limited by the accuracy of the foreground sky subtraction.     

Biased reionization and non-Gaussianity in redshifted 21-cm intensity maps of the reionization epoch

Spatial dependence in the statistics of redshifted 21-cm fluctuations promises to provide the most powerful probe of the reionization epoch. In this paper we consider the second and third moments of the redshifted 21-cm intensity distribution using a simple model that accounts for galaxy bias during the reionization process. We demonstrate that skewness in redshifted 21-cm maps should be substantial throughout the reionization epoch and on all angular scales, owing to the effects of galaxy bias which leads to early reionization in overdense regions of the intergalactic medium (IGM). The variance (or power spectrum) of 21-cm fluctuations will exhibit a minimum in redshift part way through the reionization process, when the global ionization fraction is around 50 per cent. This minimum is generic, and is due to the transition from 21-cm intensity being dominated by overdense to underdense regions as reionization progresses. We show that the details of the reionization history, including the presence of radiative feedback are encoded in the evolution of the autocorrelation and skewness functions with redshift and mean IGM neutral fraction. The amplitudes of fluctuations are particularly sensitive to the masses of ionizing sources, and vary by an order of magnitude for astrophysically plausible models. We discuss the detection of skewness by first-generation instruments, and conclude that the Mileura Wide-field Array–Low-Frequency Demonstrator will have sufficient sensitivity to detect skewness on a range of angular scales at redshifts near the end of reionization, while a subsequent instrument of 10 times the collecting area could map out the evolution of skewness in detail. The observation of a minimum in variance during the reionization history, and the detection of skewness would both provide important confirmation of the cosmological origin of redshifted 21-cm intensity fluctuations.