Spatial and time variations in the <Emphasis Type="Italic">foF</Emphasis>2 (night)/<Emphasis Type="Italic">foF</Emphasis>2 (day) ratio: Specification of some effects

A series of important aspects of the time and spatial variations in the critical frequency ratio fo(night)/fo(day) considered by one of the authors [Danilov, 2007, 2008] is specified. The list of the Eastern-Hemisphere stations, for which an analysis of the above indicated ratio was performed, is completed. The available stations of the Western Hemisphere are considered. It is shown that the character of the variations in the fo(night)/fo(day) ratio is independent of limitations imposed on the Ap index of magnetic activity for the analyzed days. The consideration of the long-term variations in geomagnetic activity using the annual mean value of the Ap index does not influence the principal conclusions of the study, although in some cases changes statistical characteristics of the obtained behavior of the fo(night)/fo(day) ratio after 1980. A comparison of the results, based on the interpretation of the trends of the fo(night)/fo(day) value with the changes in the stratosphere-ionosphere coupling from the 1980s to the 1990s obtained by the authors earlier, confirms the assumption that there occurs a systematic change in the zonal wind in the upper atmosphere.     

Relation of the <Emphasis Type="Italic">F</Emphasis> region to stratospheric parameters: Possible relation to the atmospheric dynamics

Time variations in the correlation coefficient r(h, fo) between the h(100) stratospheric parameter and the foF2 ionospheric parameter for more than two solar activity cycles (1979–2004) are considered. It is obtained that, for daytime values of the correlation coefficient r(h, fo) when all available years are considered, the absolute value of r(h, fo) decreases in time; i.e., the correlation weakening from the 1980s to the 1990s. This weakening is interpreted as a weakening of the eastward winds in the MLT region of the atmosphere, where presumably a filtration of internal waves providing interrelation of various atmospheric layers occurs.     

Relation of the <Emphasis Type="Italic">F</Emphasis>2 region to stratospheric parameters: Dependence on magnetic activity in two solar cycles

The dependence of the correlation coefficient r(h, fo) between the stratospheric parameter h(100) and critical frequency foF2 revealed in the data of two solar cycles (1979–1989 and 1990–2000) on geomagnetic activity is analyzed. It is shown that the character of the r(h, fo) dependence on limitation on the Ap geomagnetic index is the same in both cycles but depends on the time of day and solar activity level for the given year. It is also found that there is a considerable difference in the absolute values of r(h, fo) between two cycles.     

Relation between daytime and nighttime values of the critical frequency foF2

The relation between the daytime in the nighttime values of the critical frequencies (foF2) of the ionospheric F ₂ layer is considered. The correlation coefficient of foF2 measured at 1400 and 0200 LT of the same day is considered in various seasons of years with different solar activity (during the complete cycle of solar activity in 1979–1989). Special accent is made on the dependencies of the above mentioned correlation on a choice of magnetically quiet days with various limitations on maximal values of geomagnetic index Ap. It has been obtained that a statistically significant negative correlation between the foF2(1400) and foF2(0200) is more pronounced in the periods of high solar activity. The effect increases with increasing limitation of the considered days on value of Ap: the largest values of the correlation coefficient are observed if only very quiet days are considered (Ap < 6). There are preliminary indications that the considered relation between daytime and nighttime foF2 values depends on latitude.     

Empirical Model of the Location of the Main Ionospheric Trough

The empirical model of the location of the main ionospheric trough (MIT) is developed based on an analysis of data from CHAMP satellite measured at the altitudes of ~350–450 km during 2000–2007; the model is presented in the form of the analytical dependence of the invariant latitude of the trough minimum Φ_m on the magnetic local time (MLT), the geomagnetic activity, and the geographical longitude for the Northern and Southern Hemispheres. The time-weighted average index Kp(τ), the coefficient of which τ = 0.6 is determined by the requirement of the model minimum deviation from experimental data, is used as an indicator of geomagnetic activity. The model has no limitations, either in local time or geomagnetic activity. However, the initial set of MIT minima mainly contains data dealing with an interval of 16–08 MLT for Kp(τ) < 6; therefore, the model is rather qualitative outside this interval. It is also established that (a) the use of solar local time (SLT) instead of MLT increases the model error no more than by 5–10%; (b) the amplitude of the longitudinal effect at the latitude of MIT minimum in geomagnetic (invariant) coordinates is ten times lower than that in geographical coordinates.     

Parameters of the Geomagnetic Activity,Thermosphere, and Ionosphere for the Ultimately Intense Magnetic Storm

Equations of regression are derived for the intense magnetic storms of 1957?2016. They reflect the nonlinear relation between Dst_min and the effective index of geomagnetic activity Ap(τ) with a timeweighted factor τ. Based on this and on known estimations of the upper limit of the magnetic storm intensity (Dst_min =–2500 nT), the maximal possible value Ap(τ)_max ~ 1000 nT is obtained. This makes it possible to obtain initial estimates of the upper limit of variations in some parameters of the thermosphere and ionosphere that are due to geomagnetic activity. It is found, in particular, that the upper limit of an increase in the thermospheric density is seven to eight times larger than for the storm in March 1989, which was the most intense for the entire space era. The maximum possible amplitude of the negative phase of the ionospheric storm in the number density of the F₂-layer maximum at midlatitudes is nearly six times higher than for the March 1989 storm. The upper limit of the F₂-layer rise in this phase of the ionospheric storm is also considerable. Based on qualitative analysis, it is found that the F₂-layer maximum in daytime hours at midlatitudes for these limiting conditions is not pronounced and even may be unresolved in the experiment, i.e., above the F₁-layer maximum, the electron number density may smoothly decrease with height up to the upper boundary of the plasmasphere.     

Critical frequencies <Emphasis Type="Italic">foF</Emphasis>2 as an indicator of trends in thermospheric dynamics

The time variations in three parameters during the last decades are considered. R(foF2) is the correlation coefficient between the nighttime and daytime values of foF2 for the same day. Stable trends are found for the minimum (R(foF2)(max)) and maximum (R(foF2)(min)) values of R(foF2) during a year. The foF2(night)/foF2(day) ratio demonstrates both, negative and positive trends, and the trend sign depends on the inclination I and declination D of the magnetic field. The correlation coefficient r(h, fo) between foF2 and the 100 hP level in the stratosphere demonstrates a decrease (in the years of maximum and minimum solar activity) from the 1980s to the 1990s. The trends in all three groups of data are considered under the assumption of long-term changes in the circulation in the upper atmosphere.     

The use of interplanetary scintillation maps in the prediction of geomagnetic activity

Interplanetary scintillation (IPS), the twinkling of small angular diameter radio sources, arises from the interaction of the signal with small-scale plasma irregularities in the solar wind. The technique may be used to sense remotely the near-Earth heliosphere and has potential for tracking large-scale interplanetary disturbances from close to the Sun to the Earth. Such observations might be useful within routine geomagnetic forecasts, and we use data from the Mullard Radio Astronomy Observatory to test this suggestion. A forecast was based on the visual evaluation of each daily map. If an IPS event was observed then we proposed that any associated geomagnetic activity would occur either on that day, or during the following two days. We consider the success of these forecasts in predicting days when either an SSC/SI or an Ap value exceeding 30 were recorded. The identification of IPS events is necessarily subjective and so two observers compiled independent events lists, and the results were compared. Approximately half of the IPS events in each list were followed by a geomagnetic signature but comparison of the two lists showed that different days were being chosen. We also found that the forecasts had very high false alarm rates. Since IPS is sensitive to a volume we did not expect all events to be associated with a geomagnetic signature. However, the technique failed to forecast a large proportion of geomagnetic events and the association between IPS events and geomagnetic activity is not much better than would be expected by chance. Comparing the IPS forecasts with forecasts of Ap released by the Space Environment Services Center (SESC) we found that SESC correctly predicted a similar proportion of days when Ap\geq30, but that the performance was significantly better than would be expected by chance, and had a much lower false alarm rate. We conclude that these IPS data cannot be used alone to produce reliable geomagnetic activity forecasts.     

Long-term variations in the geomagnetic activity level Part II: Ascending phases of sunspot cycles

Monthly averages of the Helsinki Ak-values have been reduced to the equivalent aa-indices to extend the aa-data set back to 1844. A periodicity of about five cycles was found for the correlation coefficient (r) between geomagnetic indices and sunspot numbers for the ascending phases of sunspot cycles 9 to 22, confirming previous findings based on a minor number of sunspot cycles. The result is useful to researchers in topics related to solar-terrestrial physics, particularly for the interpretation of long-term trends in geomagnetic activity during the past, and to forecast geomagnetic activity levels in the future.     

Seasonal features in the spread-F probability near midnight over Moscow

Using the data of Moscow station for 1975–1985, the seasonal features in the dependence of the spread-F probability P near midnight on the levels of solar and geomagnetic activity have been analyzed. It has been found that the P dependence on solar activity is most substantial in winter and fall, the P dependence on geomagnetic activity is maximal during equinoxes, and the P dependence on solar activity prevails in summer but is much weaker than in winter and fall. Based on the qualitative analysis of the known mechanisms of the midlatitude spread-F, the regression equation, which shows the P dependence on the solar activity level and thermospheric parameters (temperature and density) at a fixed average level of geomagnetic activity, has been obtained. In this equation the character of the seasonal changes in P is determined by the thermospheric parameters, the relative contribution of which depends on solar activity. The found dependence of the character of the P seasonal variations on the solar activity level has been interpreted based on this equation.     

Effects of geomagnetic disturbances in power spectra of atmospheric waves in the dynamo region of the ionosphere

The dynamics of wave disturbances in the ionospheric E region in the band of periods of thermal tidal waves and waves of planetary scales (T = 48, 72, and 192 h) has been studied based on the variations in the horizontal component of the geomagnetic field, observed at Paratunka and Barrow observatories in September–October 1999. It has been found that, at midlatitudes during high geomagnetic activity, the intensity of oscillations in the power spectra with T = 24 and 12 h varies with a periodicity of 16 days different from the periodicity of changes in the ΣKp index. The maximal deviations of these periods from the values under quiet conditions coincide with the maximal changes in the ΣKp index. The variations in the 48–192 h band of periods (especially with T ～192 h) intensify simultaneously with increasing geomagnetic activity. The intensity of this harmonic is several times as high as that of the harmonic with T ～ 24 h. The periodicity of changes in the harmonics intensity within the 48–192 h band coincides with the periodicity of changes in the ΣKp index. In the polar ionosphere, the effect of high geomagnetic activity is observed as an increase in the variations with a quasi-period of T ～ 24 h and as an appearance of variations in the 48–192 h band with the periodicity coinciding with the maximums in the ΣKp index variations.     

Non-linear predictions ofAp by activity class and numerical value

Two neural network algorithms are applied to the short-term,1 to 3 days, prediction of theAp geomagnetic index. A multi-layer, back-propagation (MBP) network is used to implement a self-prediction filter forAp and this provides a forecast of the numerical value of the index. A probabilistic neural network (PNN) is used to estimate the probability distribution of theAp index, in six activity classes, and to provide a forecast of the single most likely activity class for each day. BothAp and an index of solar activity, based on the daily reports issued by the Space Environment Services Centre (Boulder), are input to the probabilistic net. It is found that the numerical forecasts of the MBP filter are most accurate at low, non-storm, levels of activity. This non-linear method provides quantitatively better estimates of activity than are produced by an existing linear prediction filter, particularly with increasing forward forecasting lag. At high levels of the solar activity index the PNN is found to anticipate storm classAp with around 60% accuracy in 1992 and 1993. Some details of the algorithms and implementation issues are described. It is concluded that interplanetary field and solar wind data will be significant components of any of the possible future developments which are discussed.     

Longitudinal effect in the dependence of the critical frequency of the midlatitude <Emphasis Type="Italic">E</Emphasis> layer on solar activity

Variations in the critical frequency of the E layer, foE, measured at Boulder and Tashkent stations located at almost coinciding geographical latitudes but at strongly different geomagnetic latitudes are analyzed. The following conclusions are drawn. (a) Late in the fall and in the winter, the foE values at these stations are distinctly different at low solar activity. This difference decreases with increasing solar activity. In other words, the longitudinal effect in the foE dependence on solar activity is significant for these conditions. (b) This effect is almost absent in summer; i.e., the difference in foE dependence on solar activity at these stations is insignificant for the given season. It has been substantiated that the dependence of the nitric oxide concentration [NO] on geomagnetic latitude, season, and solar activity is one of the main causes of this longitudinal effect.     

Relation of the F2 region to the parameters of the stratosphere: Comparison of two solar cycles

The results concerning the relation of the stratosphere and ionosphere, obtained on the basis of the data of the 1979–1989 solar cycle, are compared to the data of the following solar cycle. It is shown that all the regularities of the behavior of the correlation coefficient r(h, fo) between the stratospheric parameter h(100) and the critical frequency fo F2 found for the 1980s are also true for the 1990s. Moreover, it turns out that the r(h, fo) dependence on solar activity is similar within both solar cycles.     

Correlation between the near-Earth solar wind parameters and the source surface magnetic field

The solar magnetic field B _s at the Earth’s projection onto the solar-wind source surface has been calculated for each day over a long time interval (1976–2004). These data have been compared with the daily mean solar wind (SW) velocities and various components of the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) near the Earth. The statistical analysis has revealed a rather close relationship between the solar-wind parameters near the Sun and near the Earth in the periods without significant sporadic solar and interplanetary disturbances. Empirical numerical models have been proposed for calculating the solar-wind velocity, IMF intensity, and IMF longitudinal and B _z components from the solar magnetic data. In all these models, the B _s value plays the main role. It is shown that, under quiet or weakly disturbed conditions, the variations in the geomagnetic activity index Ap can be forecasted for 3–5 days ahead on the basis of solar magnetic observations. Such a forecast proves to be more reliable than the forecasts based on the traditional methods.     

Effect of geomagnetic disturbances on the operation of railroad automated mechanisms and telemechanics

Geomagnetic variations generate electric currents in long conductors such as high-voltage lines, pipelines, and telecoms cables. The aim of our work is to study the possible effect of geomagnetic disturbances on the operation of automated systems and telemechanics of a midlatitude railroad based on the data on the malfunctions and breakdowns registered in 2004 on the East Siberian railroad (VSZhD). It has been obtained that the total daily duration of malfunctions and breakdowns (T) during disturbed periods is controlled by geomagnetic activity. When a peak of geomagnetic activity is reached during a storm, T increases about three times. Moreover, a correlation between T and the local index of geomagnetic activity (A), measured at Podkamennaya Tunguska Siberian observatory, is high during disturbed periods. Specifically, the correlation coefficient (K) is equal to 0.83 and 0.71 for the strongest two storms of 2004 that occurred in July 17–August 2 and November 4–18, respectively.     

Manifestation of planetary wave-type oscillations in variations in the critical frequencies of the ionospheric <Emphasis Type="Italic">F</Emphasis>2 layer in the Asian region

Results of studies of the wave structure of the critical frequencies of the ionospheric F2 layer with periods of planetary waves for two Asian stations—Irkutsk and Wuhan (China)—are presented. Estimates of the appearance frequency, amplitudes, and the lifetime of oscillations with periods typical of planetary waves (2–25 days) are obtained. It is shown that these characteristics depend on the season and place of observation. The appearance of joint periodicities in the critical frequencies at both stations, as well as in the planetary index of geomagnetic activity Ap, is noted.     

Spectra of atmospheric waves in the dynamo region of the ionosphere at Kamchatka

A spectral analysis of the diurnal variations in the geomagnetic field horizontal component, observed at Kamchatka and Barrow polar observatory in September–October 1999, has been performed. The complete set of oscillations of thermal tidal atmospheric waves with T = 24, 12, 8, and 4 h has been detected in the variation spectral power (Sq) at Kamchatka, and only the fundamental harmonic with T = 24 h has been distinguished at Barrow. The above periods vary in both directions relative to stable maximums during strong geomagnetic disturbances. The relative spectral intensity at subharmonics also vary toward the fundamental harmonic with a period of 24 h. In the frequency band 0.5–3 h (IGW periods), the maximal intensity in the background spectra is observed at T ～ 2 h and increases by an order of magnitude with increasing geomagnetic activity at both Kamchatka and Barrow. A day before earthquakes, the intensity of this maximum is below the rms background values, and the spectra widen toward the region of periods shorter than 2 h. A similar effect was previously observed in the power spectra of the diurnal variations in the quasistatic electric field and VLF noise, simultaneously measured in September–October 1999.     

Ionospheric total electron content and critical frequencies over Europe at solar minimum

The paper presents results obtained by analyzing high-resolution ionospheric vertical total electron content (vTEC) data set evaluated from a chain of European ground-based Global Positioning System (GPS) stations and its equivalent slab thickness, as well as the F2-layer critical frequency foF2 and propagation factor M(3000)F2 from nearby ionosonde stations over the period 2006–2007. The study covers data within an area between 36°N and 68°N geographic latitude, and 7°W and 21°E geographic longitude during these last two years of minimum solar activity in the 23rd solar cycle. It reveals 15 extraordinary events, all of which exhibited some form of large short-lived vTEC and foF2 enhancements of the duration of small-magnitude solar-terrestrial events. The results clearly show a well-defined vTEC and foF2 storm-like disturbance patterns developed under these conditions. They prove that there are still some open questions related to the large electron density variations during weak disturbances that require additional study for both their relevance to different Global Navigation Satellite Systems (GNSS) applications and their role in the formation and evolution of the daytime ionosphere at middle latitudes.