Exploring the geophysical and socio-economic determinants of land cover changes in Eastern Mau forest reserve and Lake Nakuru drainage basin,Kenya

Understanding the linkages between the biogeophysical and socio-economic processes that operate at different spatial and temporal scales is important for land cover change mitigation. This study analysed several factors that explained the forest-shrubland conversions, grassland conversions and cropland expansions in Lake Nakuru drainage basin and Eastern Mau forest reserve in Kenya from 1985 to 2011. Logistic regression models were developed using a combination of remote sensing-based land cover data, and geographical information systems-based geophysical and socio-economic data (i.e., temperature, rainfall, elevation, slope, aspect, topographic wetness, curvature, soil pH, soil cation exchange capacity (CEC), population density and distance to road, river and town). The results were varied; for example, in the period 1985–2000, forest-shrubland conversions were linked to distance to road), distance to town, soil pH, soil CEC, rainfall, topographic wetness, curvature and aspect. The same factors, in addition to slope and distance to river, also determined the likelihood of forest-shrubland conversions in the period 2000–2011. Overall, significance of the determining factors varied depending on time and nature of land cover change. For example, topographical factors influenced grassland conversions in the period 1985–2000, while soil-related factors did not. But in the period 2000–2011, the converse was true. Therefore, policies for restoration, conservation and sustainable management of critical ecosystems (e.g., forests) should be spatially targeted and time-specific. These results broaden our knowledge of land cover dynamics in this locality, and provide a base for effective environmental policy formulation, planning and management.     

GIS-based frequency ratio and index of entropy models for landslide susceptibility assessment in the Caspian forest,northern Iran

This study presents a landslide susceptibility assessment for the Caspian forest using frequency ratio and index of entropy models within geographical information system. First, the landslide locations were identified in the study area from interpretation of aerial photographs and multiple field surveys. 72 cases (70 %) out of 103 detected landslides were randomly selected for modeling, and the remaining 31 (30 %) cases were used for the model validation. The landslide-conditioning factors, including slope degree, slope aspect, altitude, lithology, rainfall, distance to faults, distance to streams, plan curvature, topographic wetness index, stream power index, sediment transport index, normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI), forest plant community, crown density, and timber volume, were extracted from the spatial database. Using these factors, landslide susceptibility and weights of each factor were analyzed by frequency ratio and index of entropy models. Results showed that the high and very high susceptibility classes cover nearly 50 % of the study area. For verification, the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves were drawn and the areas under the curve (AUC) calculated. The verification results revealed that the index of entropy model (AUC = 75.59 %) is slightly better in prediction than frequency ratio model (AUC = 72.68 %). The interpretation of the susceptibility map indicated that NDVI, altitude, and rainfall play major roles in landslide occurrence and distribution in the study area. The landslide susceptibility maps produced from this study could assist planners and engineers for reorganizing and planning of future road construction and timber harvesting operations.     

Effects of land use change on landscape pattern of the Manas River watershed in Xinjiang, China

The mechanism of interaction between land use change and landscape pattern is pivotal in research concerning global environmental change. Quantitative evaluation of land use change that has resulted from excessive land development and its impact on landscape pattern are important for sustainable utilization of local land resources. The study area was the Manas River watershed, a typical watershed in an arid area. The present study evaluated the influence of long-term land use change on the landscape pattern; the findings are valuable for economic development and environmental protection. The processes for land use change and changes in landscape pattern were reconstructed and analyzed for data in topographic maps dated 1962 and in remote sensing images taken in 1976, 1989, 1999 and 2008 using mathematical models and landscape metrics. The results indicate significant changes in land use over the past 50 years, with increases in the areas of cultivated land and construction land, and a significant decrease in unused land and woodland areas; grassland and water resources first increased and then tended to decrease over this time. The comprehensive index of land use change is 0.55, indicating an unbalanced, one-way transition in the study area. Landscape fragmentation and diversity increased and landscape dominance decreased; in other words, differences between landscapes decreased. The changes resulted in a significant tendency toward diversity and fragmentation of the landscape. Therefore, large-scale intensive agricultural development can reduce the negative influence of land use change on the landscape pattern.     

近20余年来西北地区植被变化特征分析

利用1982—2003年8 km分辨率的NDVI数据集,选中国西北地区森林、草原、灌溉农业、雨养农业区不同类型植被为研究区,分析了植被年、年际变化特征,并对植被覆盖空间变化进行动态研究.结果表明:森林、草原、灌溉农业区和以春小麦为主的雨养农业区NDVI年变化为单峰型曲线,以冬小麦为主的雨养农业区NDVI曲线呈双峰型;同一类型的植被NDVI受纬度或海拔高度的影响,绿峰出现时间存在1个月的位相差.22 a来森林植被NDVI多呈下降趋势,草原植被区为上升趋势;雨养农业区变化不大,灌溉植被区呈显著的上升趋势.西北东部雨养农业区植被波动频率和幅度最大,是受降水影响最敏感的地区;森林植被次之;有灌溉条件的绿洲植被,年际间波动最小.22 a间西北地区植被以增加趋势为主,增加面积约为20.5%,主要分布在新疆和河西走廊绿洲、黄河沿岸灌区以及青海草区,水分条件充足的绿洲是NDVI增加最显著的区域;NDVI减少地区面积为4.77%,主要分布在西北东部.     

Effects of land use on spatial patterns of soil properties in a rocky mountain area of Northern China

In the rocky mountain area of North China, soil fertility has decreased with severe soil and water losses under various land uses. Land use has been proven to affect soil fertility spatial distribution patterns at larger scales. However, less information is available about these effects in field scale plots. Soil samples were collected at 2-m intervals by grid sampling from an area (18?×?18 m) within three land use types (poplar woodland, rotation cropland with peanut and sweet potato, and peach orchard). Soil properties including soil particle composition, soil organic matter, total nitrogen (TN), nitrate nitrogen (NO₃ ^?-N), total phosphorus (TP), and available phosphorus (AP) were measured for each sample. The spatial variability and spatial pattern of the soil properties were assessed for the three contrasting land use types. NH₄ ⁺-N, NO₃ ^?-N, and AP in the peach orchard and NO₃ ^?-N in the poplar woodland exhibited strong variation (coefficient of variance >100 %). Other properties showed moderate variations. With annual plowing and fertilization, soil properties in the rotation cropland had less variability and greater spatial autocorrelated ranges. The spatial dependences of sand content, TN, NO₃ ^?-N, and SWC in both the peach orchard and the rotation cropland were weaker than those in the poplar woodland, but the spatial dependences of TP and AP in the peach orchard were stronger than those in either the rotation cropland or the poplar woodland. Human activities such as plowing, fertilization, and harvesting had obvious effects on the spatial variability and spatial pattern of soil properties.     

Characterizing land condition variability in Northern China from 1982 to 2011

For the last three decades, Northern China has been considered as one of the most sensitive areas regarding global environmental change. The integration of AVHRR GIMMS and MODIS NDVI data (1982–2011), of which for the overlapping period of 2000–2006 show good consistency, were used for characterizing land condition variability. The trends of standardized annually ΣNDVI, temperature, precipitation and PDSI were obtained using a linear regression model. The results showed that Northern China has a general increase in greenness for the period 1982–2011 (a = 0.05). Also, annually ΣNDVI is significantly correlated with temperature and precipitation data at the regional scale (p < 0.05), implying that temperature and precipitation are the dominant limiting factors for vegetation growth. Since the greening is not uniform, factors other than temperature and precipitation may contribute to greening in some areas, while the grassland and cropland ecosystem are becoming increasingly vulnerable to drought. The results of trend analysis indicate that greenness seems to be evident in most of the study areas.     

Effect of pixel scale on evapotranspiration estimation by remote sensing over oasis areas in north-western China

One of the major uncertainties in the remote sensing estimates of regional evapotranspiration (ET) over heterogeneous landscapes is that significant estimation differences between different data scales always exist. It is necessary to predetermine the optimal remote sensing scale under such conditions. In this study, the effect of pixel scale on ET estimation over a typical oasis in north-western China was investigated. By the area-averaging and wavelet multi-resolution analysis aggregation techniques, four ??input?? up-scaling and ??output?? up-scaling procedures were implemented, respectively, to determine the optimal data scale. Validation suggested that high-resolution Landsat-based ET estimates could be used as the ground reference data when in situ measurements were not available. The differences between Landsat-based and MODIS-based ET estimates (i.e. the so-called Regional Error Distribution of the latter) showed that 1-km resolution MODIS data overestimated ET over the landscapes where NDVI was less than or equal to ~0.10; the data underestimated ET over the landscapes where NDVI was greater than or equal to ~0.40; ET could only be relatively accurately predicted by the data on the surfaces where NDVI ranged from 0.10 to 0.40. However, MODIS-based 1-km ET estimates could effectively reveal the predominant spatial distribution trend of regional ET. The results confirmed that the optimal remote sensing scale for modeling ET was approximately 480?m over the study area; land surface heterogeneity could cause significant errors in ET estimation once data scales exceeded this threshold; in addition, MODIS data at 250-m resolution were adequate for correcting the 1-km resolution ET estimates over heterogeneous landscapes.     

胶东-朝鲜半岛中生代金成矿作用

华北克拉通东部与朝鲜半岛相接,是中朝克拉通的重要组成部分。在华北克拉通东部的胶东半岛和朝鲜半岛内皆产出有不同规模的金矿床,并具有显著的地域特色。胶东半岛已发现金矿床(点)近200处,其中三山岛、焦家、新城、玲珑等为世界级金矿,它们为石英脉型和受构造控制的蚀变岩型,成矿时间主要集中在~120Ma,说明金成矿作用是在相当短的时间内,在同一成矿背景下和同一构造-岩浆-流体成矿系统下完成的。成矿流体主要来自幔源岩浆以及幔源岩浆与地壳相互作用产生的地质流体,就位环境与地壳/岩石圈在早白垩世强烈伸展构造变形有关,为克拉通破坏型金矿;与我国辽东相邻的朝鲜半岛北部平安北道等地金矿储量较大,成矿类型与特征辽东五龙金矿类似,为石英脉型矿化,也可能为早白垩世与华北克拉通岩石圈减薄、破坏相关的金矿床;朝鲜半岛南部的韩国金(银)矿床分成侏罗纪中温热液型和白垩纪浅成低温热液型两类,其中侏罗纪热液脉状金矿成矿特征虽与胶东金矿类似,但成矿时代(峰期~160Ma)有显著差异。而白垩纪浅成低温热液型金-银矿化主要发生在100~70Ma,与太平洋板块俯冲作用相关,为典型的环太平洋斑岩-次火山活动有关的浅成低温贱金属成矿系列。胶东和朝鲜半岛金矿床类型、特征及成矿时间的异同,与区域中生代地质演化及地球动力学背景密切相关。     

GIS-based landslide susceptibility mapping with probabilistic likelihood ratio and spatial multi-criteria evaluation models (North of Tehran,Iran)

The aim of this study is to produce landslide susceptibility mapping by probabilistic likelihood ratio (PLR) and spatial multi-criteria evaluation (SMCE) models based on geographic information system (GIS) in the north of Tehran metropolitan, Iran. The landslide locations in the study area were identified by interpretation of aerial photographs, satellite images, and field surveys. In order to generate the necessary factors for the SMCE approach, remote sensing and GIS integrated techniques were applied in the study area. Conditioning factors such as slope degree, slope aspect, altitude, plan curvature, profile curvature, surface area ratio, topographic position index, topographic wetness index, stream power index, slope length, lithology, land use, normalized difference vegetation index, distance from faults, distance from rivers, distance from roads, and drainage density are used for landslide susceptibility mapping. Of 528 landslide locations, 70 % were used in landslide susceptibility mapping, and the remaining 30 % were used for validation of the maps. Using the above conditioning factors, landslide susceptibility was calculated using SMCE and PLR models, and the results were plotted in ILWIS-GIS. Finally, the two landslide susceptibility maps were validated using receiver operating characteristic curves and seed cell area index methods. The validation results showed that area under the curve for SMCE and PLR models is 76.16 and 80.98 %, respectively. The results obtained in this study also showed that the probabilistic likelihood ratio model performed slightly better than the spatial multi-criteria evaluation. These landslide susceptibility maps can be used for preliminary land use planning and hazard mitigation purpose.     

珠江口西部海域表层沉积物重金属元素多尺度空间变化特征

笔者应用因子克里格分析方法,研究了珠江口西部海域388个表层沉积物中7种重金属元素Cd, Ni,Cu,Zn,Pb,Cr和As的空间结构特征,识别并分离了重金属元素不同尺度的空间主成分及其分布特征,探讨了不同空间尺度重金属的物源及控制因素。结果显示,研究区7种重金属元素在空间上存在块金尺度、局部尺度(变程为60 km的球状结构)和区域尺度(变程为160 km的球状结构)3种尺度的空间变化。以迭代算法模拟了研究区重金属元素线性协同区域化模型。根据不同尺度上区域化因子的主成分得分分布特征可知:局部尺度上,F₁因子(Zn,Cr,Ni,Cu)和F₂因子(As)的高值区表现为"牛眼"状局部特征,并分布在陆地沿海的河口或者港湾区,指示了可能受人为污染成分影响的重金属区域。其中,雷州半岛东部沿海是最可能的重金属污染区,其空间分布主要受控于局部的地形、海流等因素。F₂因子不同于F₁的空间分布,主要在于As不同于Zn,Cr,Ni,Cu等的地球化学行为。区域尺度上,F₁(Zn,Cr,Ni)和F₂(As)因子主要反映了不同陆源母岩物质的影响。Zn,Cr,Ni等主要源于华南大陆陆源母岩物质,而As主要受到海南岛陆源母岩物质的控制。F₁和F₂因子得分高值区整体上表现为NNE向自陆地向较深海域延伸的"片状"分布特征,推测其主要受到海平面变化及NNE向区域性海洋环流的控制。     

黄土丘陵小流域生态用水试验研究——气候和土地利用变化的影响

为探讨黄土高原地区的生态恢复,以半干旱黄土丘陵区安家沟小流域的气象、土壤水分、地形图和土地利用图(1982年和2002年)为源信息,分析了不同植被类型的蒸散量和生态用水量、流域生态用水量及其与气候和土地利用变化的关系。研究结果表明:(1)流域土地利用结构从1982-2002年间变化较大,农地(特别是梯田)增加较快,乔木林地急剧减少,主要表现为毁林、开荒和造田;(2)研究区内各种植被/土地利用类型的蒸散量和生态用水都极大地受控于气候(特别是降雨量)的影响,其年际差异较大;(3)不同植被/土地利用类型间的蒸散量和生态用水差异明显,在各个年份乔灌林的生态用水量均大于农作物和自然草地的蒸散量和生态用水量,但生态用水的差异程度小于蒸散量的差异程度;(4)以自然草地(即荒草地)为标准,农作物的蒸散量和自然草地接近,但乔灌林地的蒸散量和生态用水量均远高于自然草地,难于实现土壤水分平衡;(5)流域土地利用结构的变化(主要是强耗水植被的减少)减小了流域生态用水量,增强了流域的水分平衡能力。     

县域土地利用景观格局变化研究——以陇县为例

依据景观生态学基本原理,应用spss软件、arcgis软件和景观格局分析软件Fragstates对陇县1989～2009年土地利用景观格局的变化和空间分布进行研究,并根据各景观类型的景观格局指数计算结果对该区土地利用景观格局进行分析评价。结果表明,陇县主要景观类型为林地、耕地和草地,林地和建设用地保持稳定而迅速增长,草地和未利用地呈现逐渐减少趋势;人类活动使水域、未利用地更为分散,建设用地、园地更为集中;景观多样性降低,破碎化程度减缓,斑块形状的复杂程度并未发生大幅度的变化,人类活动对景观格局的影响保持在一定范围内。     

A novel hybrid integration model using support vector machines and random subspace for weather-triggered landslide susceptibility assessment in the Wuning area (China)

This study proposed a hybrid modeling approach using two methods, support vector machines and random subspace, to create a novel model named random subspace-based support vector machines (RSSVM) for assessing landslide susceptibility. The newly developed model was then tested in the Wuning area, China, to produce a landslide susceptibility map. With the purpose of achieving the objective of the study, a spatial dataset was initially constructed that includes a landslide inventory map consisting of 445 landslide regions. Then, various landslide-influencing factors were defined, including slope angle, aspect, altitude, topographic wetness index, stream power index, sediment transport index, soil, lithology, normalized difference vegetation index, land use, rainfall, distance to roads, distance to rivers, and distance to faults. Next, the result of the RSSVM model was validated using statistical index-based evaluations and the receiver operating characteristic curve approach. Then, to evaluate the performance of the suggested RSSVM model, a comparison analysis was performed to other existing approaches such as artificial neural network, Naïve Bayes (NB) and support vector machine (SVM). In general, the performance of the RSSVM model was better than the other models for spatial prediction of landslide susceptibility. The AUC results of the applied models are as follows: RSSVM (AUC = 0.857), followed by MLP (AUC = 0.823), SVM (AUC = 0.814) and NB (AUC = 0.783). The present study indicates that RSSVM can be used for landslide susceptibility evaluation, and the results are very useful for local governments and people living in the Wuning area.     

内蒙古半干旱草原气候生态相互作用问题——IMGRASS计划初步结果

IMGRASS计划 (内蒙古半干旱草原土壤植被大气相互作用 )旨在通过野外实验、过程分析和数值模式研究理解中纬度半干旱草原气候生态相互作用中的多种时空尺度和多种物理化学生物学过程的作用 ,以及人类活动的影响。文中介绍部分与全球变化和人类活动相关的初步研究结果 ,主要是 :(1)冬季风、大区域地表环境和本区地形的结合对浑善达克沙地在长时间过程形成的作用 ;(2 )夏季风、本区地形和植被对本区夏季降水的水汽通道和降水分布有重要作用 ;(3)实验区内不同类型地表与土壤表现出明显不同的地气交换通量特征与不同的边界层结构 ;(4 )草原温室气体 (N2 O ,CH4 ,CO2 )收支的定量测量与过程研究表明 ,温带草原N2 O源强较IPCC 2 0 0 1报告估计值偏低 ,而草原CO2 收支表现出很强的变动性 ;(5 )人类活动干预下的草原退化与恢复演替表现出该区域普遍的规律与对气候的依赖 ,提供可持续发展的人类对自然草原放牧强度的阈值。     

A comparative study on the landslide susceptibility mapping using evidential belief function and weights of evidence models

The purpose of this study is to produce landslide susceptibility map of a landslide-prone area (Daguan County, China) by evidential belief function (EBF) model and weights of evidence (WoE) model to compare the results obtained. For this purpose, a landslide inventory map was constructed mainly based on earlier reports and aerial photographs, as well as, by carrying out field surveys. A total of 194 landslides were mapped. Then, the landslide inventory was randomly split into a training dataset; 70% (136 landslides) for training the models and the remaining 30% (58 landslides) was used for validation purpose. Then, a total number of 14 conditioning factors, such as slope angle, slope aspect, general curvature, plan curvature, profile curvature, altitude, distance from rivers, distance from roads, distance from faults, lithology, normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI), sediment transport index (STI), stream power index (SPI), and topographic wetness index (TWI) were used in the analysis. Subsequently, landslide susceptibility maps were produced using the EBF and WoE models. Finally, the validation of landslide susceptibility map was accomplished with the area under the curve (AUC) method. The success rate curve showed that the area under the curve for EBF and WoE models were of 80.19% and 80.75% accuracy, respectively. Similarly, the validation result showed that the susceptibility map using EBF model has the prediction accuracy of 80.09%, while for WoE model, it was 79.79%. The results of this study showed that both landslide susceptibility maps obtained were successful and would be useful for regional spatial planning as well as for land cover planning.     

Using Discriminant Analysis and Logistic Regression in Mapping Quaternary Sediments

Mapping the occurrence and thickness of layers within a soil profile is a prerequisite for soil characterization. The objective of this paper is to compare the applicability of two statistical methods—discriminant analysis (DA) and logistic regression (LR)—used to calculate the thickness of Quaternary sediments in a formal way and to identify parameters controlling the occurrence of these sediments. The investigations were carried out in southern Bavaria in an area of about 150 ha presenting a large variability in relief and parent material (Tertiary material, Pleistocene loess, colluvial/alluvial sediments). Comparisons between the two statistical methods were carried out with a training dataset and an evaluation dataset. The results show that DA was preferable under the assumptions of normality and equal variance/covariance matrices. The analyses produced models with 80 % and 79 % correctly reclassified assignments and a canonical correlation coefficient of approximately 0.60. From the simulations, it was found (i) that the determining predictors were altitude, slope, and upslope catchment area (partly expressed as topographical wetness index), SAGA wetness index and specific catchment area; and (ii) that a disadvantage of LR was that trial and error was frequently necessary to find the optimal composition of variables. In this study, a hierarchical combination of binary and ordinal LR was used and revealed (iii) that when the probabilities in LR between adjacent categories were similar, the possibility of incorrect calculations increased and (iv) that visual inspections as well as RMSE showed that DA with weighted depths (5 cm-stepwise DA) provided the best prediction accuracy. This information can help improve soil surveys and the predictability of the spatial heterogeneity in landscapes.     

黄土高原西部土壤水分时空变化模拟研究——以安家坡流域为例

土壤水作为陆地水循环和水量平衡的一个重要组成部分,在土壤-植被-大气连续体物质与能量转化中起着重要的作用,成为陆面过程研究中的重要参量.选择黄土高原西部的安家坡流域,采用多点长序列观测方法,对该区域土壤水分的时空变化规律进行研究.结果表明:坡向和土地利用类型是小流域土壤水分变异的重要影响因素,得出了不同立地条件下土壤水分的剖面变化与时间的动态规律.在此基础上,利用土壤湿度指数结合主要影响因素预测土壤水分的时空变化,旨在为黄土高原大中尺度的土壤水分模拟提供思路.     

Landslide susceptibility mapping on Panaon Island,Philippines using a geographic information system

For landslide susceptibility mapping, this study applied, verified and compared the Bayesian probability model, the weights-of-evidence to Panaon Island, Philippines, using a geographic information system. Landslide locations were identified in the study area from the interpretation of aerial photographs and field surveys, and a spatial database was extracted from SRTM (Shuttle Radar Topographic Mission) DEM (Digital Elevation Model) imagery, aerial photograph, topographic map, and geological map. The factors that influence landslide occurrence, such as slope, aspect, curvature, topographic wetness index and stream power index of topography, were calculated from SRTM imagery. Distance from drainage was extracted from topographic database. Lithology and distance from fault were extracted and calculated from geological database. Terrain mapping unit was classified from aerial photographs. The spatial association between the factors and the landslides was calculated as the contrast values, W ⁺ and W ⁻ using the weights-of-evidence model. Tests of conditional independence were performed for the selection of the factors, allowing the large number of combinations of factors to be analyzed. For each factor rating, the contrast values, W ⁺ and W ⁻ were overlaid for landslide susceptibility mapping. The results of the analysis showed that contrast rating (78.60%) for each factor’s multiclass had better accuracy of 5.90% than combinations of factor assigned to binary class with W ⁺ and W ⁻ (72.70%).     

Spatial heterogeneous response of land use and landscape functions to ecological restoration: the case of the Chinese loess hilly region

Ecological restorations over time may have profound effects on ecological and socio-economic systems. However, land-use changes and landscape functions that accompany ecological restorations can have spatial differentiations due to varied biophysical and socio-economic contexts. Therefore, these spatial differentiations caused by ecological restoration must be understood for better planning and management of restoration activities. The Baota District, with 576 villages in the center of the Chinese Loess Plateau, was selected as the study area because of its dramatic transition from cropland to grassland and shrubland from 1990 to 2010. Using the ArcGIS software and a k-means clustering analysis, an approach to identify types of land-use change patterns (TLCPs) at the village level was developed, and four TLCPs were delineated. The analysis indicated a general pattern of cropland decline by 21.6 %, but revealed significant spatial variations between villages in different TLCPs. Vegetation cover and soil retention, which are key proxies for landscape functions, increased by 22.70 and 108 %, respectively, from 2000 to 2010 with significant spatial heterogeneity. The Universal Soil Loss Equation was employed for the assessment of soil retention. The analysis of landscape metrics revealed a major trend of fragmentation and regularity on the county and village scale; however, spatial variations remained. Physical attributes were used to characterize different TLCPs, and notable differences were found. The spatial heterogeneous change in land use and landscape functions on the village scale may be useful for land use and ecological restoration management policy makers.     

新疆喀什噶尔河流域1990-2010年土地利用/覆被及景观格局的变化特征

采用新疆喀什噶尔河流域1990、2000和2010年的Landsat-TM影像数据和中巴资源卫星数据, 结合GIS技术, 分析了喀什噶尔河流域近20 a土地利用/覆被及景观格局动态变化特征, 并对其变化原因进行探讨. 结果显示: 在1990-2010年喀什噶尔河流域耕地、建设用地、盐碱地、水域湿地、裸土地和其他未利用地面积呈不断增加趋势, 变化幅度分别为73.92%、51.44%、24.27%、10.24%、6.47%和2.98%; 林地、草地和沙地面积减少, 变化幅度分别为-4.13%、-17.16%和-0.73%; 裸石岩砾面积近20 a基本维持不变. 利用转移矩阵可知, 流域新增耕地面积主要来自于16.46%的草地和3.36%的林地; 新增建设用地主要来自于1.46%的耕地和0.22%的草地; 新增水域湿地面积主要来自于0.18%的草地; 新增盐碱地面积主要来自于0.28%的草地. 1990-2010年的20 a里喀什噶尔河流域耕地和水域湿地分布趋于集中, 景观优势度增强, 且斑块之间的联系不断增强. 林地和草地面积减少, 景观趋于破碎化, 景观优势度降低. 喀什噶尔河流域土地利用类型及景观指数的变化受人口、经济、政策和技术的多重影响, 导致流域耕地面积增加、植被退化. 因此, 合理利用流域水土资源对流域生态环境安全十分重要.