Impact of forecasted land use changes on flood risk in the Polish Carpathians

Flooding is a major environmental hazard in Poland with risks that are likely to increase in the future. Land use and land cover (LULC) have a strong influencing on flood risk. In the Polish Carpathians, the two main projected land use change processes are forest expansion and urbanization. These processes have a contradictory impact on flood risk, which makes the future impact of LULC changes on flooding in the Carpathians hard to estimate. In this paper, we investigate the impact of the projected LULC changes on future flood risk in the Polish Carpathians for the test area of Ropa river basin. We used three models of spatially explicit future LULC scenarios for the year 2060. We conduct hydrological simulations for the current state and for the three projected land use scenarios (trend extrapolation, ‘liberalization’ and ‘self-sufficiency’). In addition, we calculated the amount of flood-related monetary losses, based on the current flood plain area and both actual and projected land use maps under each of the three scenarios. The results show that in the Ropa river, depending on scenario, either peak discharge decreases due to the forest expansion or the peak discharge remains constant—the impact of LULC changes on the hydrology of such mountainous basins is relatively low. However, the peak discharges are very diverse across sub-catchments within the modeling area. Despite the overall decrease of peak discharge, there are areas of flow increase and there is a substantial projected increase in flood-related monetary losses within the already flood-prone areas, related to the projected degree of urbanization.     

Prioritization of disaster risk in a community using GIS

Prioritization of disaster risk was carried out for a community in Toronto, Canada. Geographic information systems (GIS) were used for spatial analysis, including spatial overlays and clipping for extracting spatial and attribute information related to people’s vulnerability, critical infrastructure and landuse. In order to determine disaster risk, the overall community vulnerability was evaluated by combining social, economic, physical and environmental vulnerabilities. This paper uses the propane explosion incident as the case in point to demonstrate the methodology and procedure used to evaluate risk using GIS techniques. City of Toronto spatial data have been integrated with the study area to gather landuse information, identify risk zones based on the propane storage facility location and evaluate risks. Statistics Canada 2006 census data have been used for area demographics and people’s social and economic status. Vulnerability indicators were determined based on the GIS-derived spatial and attribute data for the hazard and evacuation zones followed by a quantitative spatial risk estimation and ranking. The methodology of this study, based on the risk evaluation and prioritization conducted, can be applied to future decision making in effective landuse planning and the development of risk management strategies.     

Nature and culture in social science: the demarcation of domains of being in eighteenth century and modern discourses

Modern social science is concerned with policing the ‘boundary’ between nature and culture, with limiting and excluding phenomena which threaten to challenge its account of the social determination of the attributes of human beings. The paper argues that this boundary defence is an unusually touchy and difficult matter because social science has inherited an Enlightenment conception of man as ‘unique’. Human culture is regarded as different in quality from any possible form of animal association or attainment. At the same time as supporting this ontology it supposes the ‘boundary’ is in some sense a matter of empirical science, capable of specification by reference to evidence. We try to show the confusions these two contradictory circumstances produce by considering two debates: those concerning the possibility of ‘feral’ children and those concerning the uniqueness of language to human beings. It is demonstrated that the modern debates develop theories, issues and lines of dispute which appeared in the eighteenth century.     

Re-specifying disaster risk: concepts,methods, and models

The discussion on the social-ecological dimensions of hazards is constantly evolving. This paper explores the trajectory of research relating to hazards and their impact on vulnerable human populations. Interpretations of disaster risk have included estimating losses in terms of human life and property, and analyzing the social mechanisms in place that exacerbate or mitigate a population’s sensitivity to hazard events. In keeping with recent trends in research relating to disaster risk, the paper focuses on the social dimension of vulnerability and the contribution of social structures and relationships in building community resilience. Institutional frameworks and policies in particular determine the quantity and quality of resources and services available to people that contribute to resilience over time. The hazard-risk-location-model (HRLM) is proposed that is based on re-specifying disaster risk in terms of exposure and coping ability to capture the focus on social vulnerability and resilience. The framework of the HRLM incorporates the following components: (1) linkages within existing social capital; (2) spatial variation in social and institutional frameworks; (3) positive and negative feedbacks; and (4) characteristics of the hazard event. The model contributes to the range of place-based assessments designed to address the human-environmental impacts of hazards and disasters.     

Integration of statistical and heuristic approaches for landslide risk analysis: a case of volcanic mountains in West Java Province,Indonesia

Owing to fragile geo-morphology, extreme climatic conditions, and densely populated settlements and rapid development activities, West Java Province is the most landslide hazardous area in Indonesia. So, a landslide risk map for this province bears a great importance such as for land-use planning. It is however widely accepted that landslide risk analysis is often difficult because of the difficulties involved in landslide hazard assessment and estimation of consequences of future landslide events. For instance, lack of multi-temporal inventory map or records of triggering events is often a major problem in landslide hazard mapping. In this study, we propose a simple technique for converting a landslide susceptibility map into a landslide hazard map, which we have employed for landslide risk analysis in one ideally hazardous part of volcanic mountains in West Java Province. The susceptibility analysis was carried out through correlation between past landslides and eight spatial parameters related to instability, i.e. slope, aspect, relative relief, distance to river, geological units, soil type, land use and distance to road. The obtained susceptibility map was validated using cross-time technique, and was collaborated with the frequency-area statistics to respond to ‘when landslide will occur’ and ‘how large it will be’. As for the judgment of the consequences of future landslides, expert opinion was used considering available literature and characteristic of the study area. We have only considered economic loss in terms of physical damage of buildings, roads and agricultural lands for the landslide risk analysis. From this study, we understand the following: (1) the hazard map obtained from conversion of the susceptibility map gives spatial probability and the area of an expected landslide will be greater than 500m² in the next 2 years, (2) the landslide risk map shows that 24% of the total area is in high risk; 30% in moderate risk; 45% in low risk and no risk covers only 1% of the total area, and (3) the loss will be high in agricultural lands, while it will be low in the road structures and buildings.     

Public perception of flood hazard and flood risk in Iceland: a case study in a watershed prone to ice-jam floods

Understanding and improving the public perception has become an important element in the management of flood risk worldwide. In Iceland, studying perception of flood hazard and flood risk is, however, in its early stages. This paper presents a case study on the public perception of flood hazard and flood risk in an Icelandic town prone to ice-jam floods. Awareness of the population regarding historical inundations, self estimation of flood risk and worry is considered. The factual knowledge of the residents is deconstructed in flood hazard parameters accessible to the lay population: number of events, dates, genesis and boundaries. The performance of the respondents is rated for each parameter and the influence of several predictors evaluated. The research shows three significant patterns: there is poor awareness and little worry about historical inundations in the area; experience of the past flooding events in town is the most effective source of knowledge; awareness, risk estimation and worry are not correlated.     

Vulnerability assessment for preliminary flood risk mapping and management in coastal areas

Despite continuing technological advancement in hazard and vulnerability assessment, risk modelling and hazard mitigation techniques, losses to disasters associated with natural hazards continue and in some cases are increasing across Europe and worldwide. This paper focuses on the need to bridge the gap between technical solutions and the sociopolitical contexts in which these are produced, to better understand and create more effective risk management regimes. We do so with application of the science–policy co-production frame to landslide risk management in Italy. The methodology deployed included a desk study informed by semi-structured interviews carried out with selected key stakeholders at national, regional and municipal level. We propose a normative and analytical framework for transferring co-production into natural hazard research by presenting a matrix identifying four contexts within which co-production may unfold. The matrix is based on two axes, which distinguish between innovation and its absence in science and policy domains. We examine several examples of co-production, such as the water–soil integrated approach to risk management or the implementation of hazard/risk assessment. The results highlight that the insulation of science from the institutional context within which knowledge is produced and used is a very problematic issue. This often hinders the implementation of desirable policies and undermines the effectiveness of interventions. Moreover, innovation in science and policy does not automatically result in successful solutions for landslide risk management. Finally, results confirm the utility of co-production but also highlight methodological challenges associated with the introduction of this new conceptual paradigm into the well-structured communities of scientists and policy-makers.     

The ebb and flow of power: British flood risk management and the politics of scale

This paper examines the rescaling of flood risk management (FRM) in Britain over the past 70+ years. Drawing on recent research in geography and elsewhere – which has engaged the politics of scale literature with the rescaling of water and environmental governance – we seek to illustrate the mis-match between the rescaling of the geographical unit of management and the nexus of power and control of those engaged in FRM. For those seeking positive examples of multi-level decentralised governance in water resource management, where power is shared across the spatial scales, our historical analysis struggles to find evidence. Rather, despite attempts to ‘hollow-out’ the state through the scaling ‘out’ and ‘down’ of FRM responsibilities, our evidence suggests that the control over key decision-making tools, resources and other modalities of power remains in the hands of a few key national-level decision-makers; it is the responsibility that has been decentralised, not least to those at risk of flooding. The application of the politics of scale theorising in a FRM context is innovative and, importantly, our case study demonstrates that such politics does not have to involve open conflict but is much more subtle in its deployment of power.     

Making risk real: Urban trees and the ontological politics of risk

Over the past several decades, risk has become a distinct field of social inquiry as scholars in a variety of disciplines have developed theories about the ‘nature’ of risk and the role it plays in contemporary society. Collectively, these theories enrich our understanding of the politics of risk, the dynamics of risk perception, and the way risk shapes and is shaped by space, culture, social change, and modes of governing in the neoliberal era. In this paper, however, we argue these theories are helpful but not entirely suited to understanding risk when it becomes the subject of something Whatmore (2009, p. 587, 2013) calls “environmental knowledge controversies”. These controversies are generative events where more-than-human agencies and the political and knowledge making practices of heterogeneous actors reshape our sense of the real. To address this issue, we draw on the concepts of enactment, multiplicity, and ontological politics to explore how different kinds of risk and tree were made more or less real during a contentious debate over the risk posed by a group of urban trees in Newcastle, Australia. This case study suggests we can think of risk and hazardous entities like trees as effects that also affect because they elicit interventions that transform bodies and spaces in more or less enduring ways. Attending to the enactment, multiplicity, and ontological politics of risk, we argue, provides an alternative way to navigate moments of political contestation over the assessment and management of risk that has implications for how these processes are conceived and conducted in the future.     

A Portfolio Approach to Evaluating Natural Hazard Mitigation Policies: An Application to Lateral-Spread Ground Failure in Coastal California

In the past, efforts to prevent catastrophic losses from natural hazards have largely been undertaken by individual property owners based on site—specific evaluations of risks to particular buildings. Public efforts to assess community vulnerability and encourage mitigation have focused on either aggregating site—specific estimates or adopting standards based upon broad assumptions about regional risks. This paper develops an alternative, intermediate—scale approach to regional risk assessment and the evaluation of community mitigation policies. Properties are grouped into types with similar land uses and levels of hazard, and hypothetical community mitigation strategies for protecting these properties are modeled like investment portfolios. The portfolios consist of investments in mitigation against the risk to a community posed by a specific natural hazard. and are defined by a community's mitigation budget and the proportion of the budget invested in locations of each type.

The usefulness of this approach is demonstrated through an integrated assessment of earthquake—induced lateral—spread ground failure risk in the Watsonville, California area. Data from the magnitude 6.9 Loma Prieta earthquake of 1989 are used to model lateral—spread ground failure susceptibility. Earth science and economic data are combined and analyzed in a Geographic Information System (CIS). The portfolio model is then used to evaluate the benefits of mitigating the risk in different locations. Two mitigation policies, one that prioritizes mitigation by land use type and the other by hazard zone, are compared with a status quo policy of doing no further mitigation beyond that which already exists. The portfolio representing the hazard zone rule yields a higher expected return than the land use portfolio does; however, the hazard zone portfolio experiences a higher standard deviation. Therefore, neither portfolio is clearly preferred. The two mitigation policies both reduce expected losses and increase overall expected community wealth compared to the status quo policy.     

Exotic crustal block accretion to the eastern Gondwanaland margin in the Late Cambrian–Tasmania,the Selwyn Block,and implications for the Cambrian–Silurian evolution of the Ross,Delamerian, and Lachlan orogens

Reconstructions of the Cambrian–Silurian tectonic evolution of eastern Gondwanaland, when the Australian Tasmanides and Antarctic Ross Orogen developed, rely on correlation between structural elements in SE Australia and Northern Victoria Land (NVL), Antarctica. A variety of published models exist but none completely solve the tectonic puzzle that is the Delamerian–Lachlan transition in the Tasmanides. This paper summarizes the understanding of Cambrian (Delamerian) to Silurian (Lachlan) geological evolution of the eastern Tasmanides, taking into account new deep seismic data that clarifies the geological connection between Victoria and Tasmania — the ‘Selwyn Block’ model. It evaluates previous attempts at correlation between NVL, Tasmania and Victoria, and presents a new scenario that encompasses the most robust correlations. Tasmania together with the Selwyn Block is reinterpreted as an exotic Proterozoic microcontinental block – ‘VanDieland’ – that collided into the east Gondwanaland margin south of western Victoria, and north of NVL in the Late Cambrian, perhaps terminating the Delamerian Orogeny in SE Australia. Subsequent north-east ‘tectonic escape’ of VanDieland in the Early Ordovician explains the present-day outboard position of Tasmania with respect to the rest of the Delamerian orogen, the origin of the hiatus that separates the Delamerian and Lachlan orogenic cycles in Australia, and how western Lachlan oceanic crust developed as a ‘trapped plate-segment’. The model establishes a new structural template for subsequent Lachlan Orogen development and Mesozoic Australia–Antarctica separation.     

Fire on the horizon: contemporary Aboriginal burning issues in the Tanami Desert,central Australia

As part of a collaborative research project created to promote the coexistence of fire, people and biodiversity in central Australia, a case study was conducted on Aboriginal perceptions of fire and its management in the southern Tanami Desert of Central Australia. The Tanami was chosen due to consecutive wildfire events and reported fire conflicts between Aboriginal and pastoral (cattle station) landholders on fire issues. This paper addresses fire issues from the perspective of Warlpiri Aboriginal people in this region. It shows that many Warlpiri hold strong views concerning the use of fire and its management. Elders, in particular, have retained tradition-based knowledge about fire and its effects on the environment. The complex cultural protocols that structure decisions about who burns, when and where are discussed. It is shown that, although there have been dramatic changes to their subsistence economy, Warlpiri still burn for cultural and economic reasons. At the same time, social change has given rise to new fire-related issues, including lack of access to remote areas in order to undertake burning and a decrease in fire knowledge among younger generations. The paper argues that Warlpiri perceptions of fire management, needs and skills must be incorporated in a regional fire management strategy if the cycle of wildfire that follows above average rainfall periods in the Tanami is to be broken. Proper resourcing of Aboriginal people to fire their land in customary ways will enhance Aboriginal livelihoods as well as benefit other stakeholders in the region.     

Bridging the gap between employment and social care for people with learning disabilities: Local Area Co-ordination and in-between spaces of social inclusion

This paper identifies the growing gap between the spheres of paid employment and social care for people with learning disabilities. Social inclusion and independence remain closely associated with paid employment; social exclusion and dependency with receipt of care. The paper argues that, as employability and supported employment programmes increasingly select only the most able, and social care is ever more restricted to those in most need, an expanding number of people with learning disabilities are occupying a third or in-between sphere where the opportunities for work or care are limited. The paper draws on research undertaken for Scottish Government and interviews with policy makers and practitioners at national and local scales. The paper presents a critique of the array of employment programmes, arguing that their narrow and outcome-focused approach excludes most people with learning disabilities from opportunities for employment. ‘Local Area Co-ordinators’ present in many areas in Scotland provide personal support and ‘brokerage’ to facilitate access to, in some cases, employment and, perhaps more importantly, to other ‘work’ experiences (including voluntary work) and community capacity building. The ‘progressive localist’ network building work of Local Area Co-ordinators can potentially bridge the gap between the spheres of employment and social care, and in doing so contest the deterministic relation between social inclusion and paid employment.     

A grievable life? The criminalisation and securing of asylum seeker bodies in the ‘violent frames’ of Australia’s Operation Sovereign Borders

The life of those seeking asylum from persecution and other human rights abuses has become interminably precarious. As minority world governments deploy various apparatuses of security to govern the circulation of ‘unruly’ populations, the world’s most vulnerable people have been reconstituted as security threats. In this paper I trace this ‘transfer of illegitimacy’ and criminalisation of asylum seeker bodies in the context of the Australian government’s newly deployed Operation Sovereign Borders. Drawing on Foucault’s governmentality as a domain of security and Butler’s articulation of recognition, precariousness and grievability, I explore both the subjectivities formed as a function and technique of securing Australia’s borders and the way this framing produces a certain governed reality that ‘acts upon the senses’ to delimit public discourse. I argue that the range of discursive and non-discursive practises that make up Operation Sovereign Borders has dire implications for those seeking asylum in Australia. Not only do these practises constitute a social crafting where conditions for a flourishing life are diminished, but this crafting of precarity is carried out in the name of securing citizens lives. The life of the asylum seekers is a life unrecognised in the violent frames of Operation Sovereign Borders.     

Drought risk assessment in the western part of Bangladesh

Though drought is a recurrent phenomenon in Bangladesh, very little attention has been so far paid to the mitigation and preparedness of droughts. This article presents a method for spatial assessment of drought risk in Bangladesh. A conceptual framework, which emphasizes the combined role of hazard and vulnerability in defining risk, is used for the study. Standardized precipitation index method in a GIS environment is used to map the spatial extents of drought hazards in different time steps. The key social and physical factors that define drought vulnerability in the context of Bangladesh are identified and corresponding thematic maps in district level are prepared. Composite drought vulnerability map is developed through the integration of those thematic maps. The risk is computed as the product of the hazard and vulnerability. The result shows that droughts pose highest risk to the northern and northwestern districts of Bangladesh.     

Perception of earthquake risk: a study of the earthquake insurance pilot area in China

In 2014, China will pilot its first earthquake insurance program, and the inhabitants’ perception of earthquake risk in the pilot area is significant for the implementation of this plan. In this study, the authors conducted a field survey in four districts in the insurance pilot area to investigate the factors affecting the earthquakes risk perception of residents. The survey concentrates on the factors of hazard experience and residents’ house type and shows that people who have experienced more earthquakes tend to have a lower risk perception while people who have suffered serious earthquake loss tend to have a higher risk perception. For the house type factor, the author finds that house type is correlated with the risk perception from an earthquake. The effect on risk perception is significantly reduced when people enhance their house type with brick walls, concrete beams, and column. Furthermore, gender, income, and education level also have direct effects on how residents perceive of the risk from an earthquake.     

The role of coupling and embeddedness in risk evolution: rethinking the snow event in early 2008, China

New forms of hazards generated by extreme weather pose new challenges to emergency management. The purpose of this paper is to identify a typical evolution dynamics by analyzing coupling and embeddedness in risk evolution via critical infrastructure system under extreme weather. Evidence from the snow event in early 2008, China, is used to draw the viewpoint and support the argument. The paper identifies the dynamics that how a natural hazard of extreme weather evolves into a social crisis and how coupling and embeddedness contribute to the evolution. This paper makes it evident that the impact of natural hazard to a society can obtain amplification through coupling and embeddedness. Therefore, new challenges in risk evolution should become a highlighted direction for further research. This paper sheds light on a new profile for social impact research of natural hazard and provides new insights into systems thinking on emergency management.     

Earthquake hazard in Northeast India — A seismic microzonation approach with typical case studies from Sikkim Himalaya and Guwahati city

A comprehensive analytical as well as numerical treatment of seismological, geological, geomorphological and geotechnical concepts has been implemented through microzonation projects in the northeast Indian provinces of Sikkim Himalaya and Guwahati city, representing cases of contrasting geological backgrounds — a hilly terrain and a predominantly alluvial basin respectively. The estimated maximum earthquakes in the underlying seismic source zones, demarcated in the broad northeast Indian region, implicates scenario earthquakes of M _W 8.3 and 8.7 to the respective study regions for deterministic seismic hazard assessments. The microzonation approach as undertaken in the present analyses involves multi-criteria seismic hazard evaluation through thematic integration of contributing factors. The geomorphological themes for Sikkim Himalaya include surface geology, soil cover, slope, rock outcrop and landslide integrated to achieve geological hazard distribution. Seismological themes, namely surface consistent peak ground acceleration and predominant frequency were, thereafter, overlaid on and added with the geological hazard distribution to obtain the seismic hazard microzonation map of the Sikkim Himalaya. On the other hand, the microzonation study of Guwahati city accounts for eight themes — geological and geomorphological, basement or bedrock, landuse, landslide, factor of safety for soil stability, shear wave velocity, predominant frequency, and surface consistent peak ground acceleration. The five broad qualitative hazard classifications — ‘low’, ‘moderate’, ‘high’, ‘moderate high’ and ‘very high’ could be applied in both the cases, albeit with different implications to peak ground acceleration variations. These developed hazard maps offer better representation of the local specific seismic hazard variation in the terrain.     

GIS-based evaluation of rockfall risk along routes in Greece

This article presents a GIS-based system, designed to assist in the management of rockfall risk along Greek routes. The system was developed in two stages; the field data collection led to the implementation of a rockfall rating system with its fundamental parameters, while the data process concluded to a rockfall data base and a GIS-based interface. The fundamental parameters were derived from the rockfall hazard rating system developed by Pierson et al. at the Oregon State Highway Division and provide a coherent approach to decide the type and the cost of protection measures to be applied in an area affected by rockfalls and presents highest rockfall risk. The system presented in this paper as well as the original system comprises exponential scoring functions that represent the increased hazard and reflected in nine categories forming the classification. The method presented in this paper modified certain categories from the original system which were described qualitatively and may lead to quite subjective estimations. These categories are ditch effectiveness; climate and presence of water on slope as well as rockfall history. Moreover, the original category “Geologic characteristic” was changed to Structural and Discontinuities Index; an index that relates blockiness of rock mass and orientation of joints with their weathering condition and their roughness. This index follows the classification of weathering and joint’s roughness suggested by International Society of Rock Mechanics, while other modifications regarding the categories “decision sight distance” and “roadway width” were applied based on Greek standards. An application of this modified method to a 3 km road which connects Athinios port and Fira, the capital of Santorini island, Greece, a high traffic intensity road where rockfalls periodically cause traffic interruptions is presented. The method was applied in fifteen cross sections of slopes adjacent to the road and the analyses showed increased risk and the need for urgent remedial works.     

Landslide hazard and risk assessment: a?case study from the Hlohovec–Sered’ landslide area in south-west Slovakia

Landslide hazard or susceptibility assessment is based on the selection of relevant factors which play a role on the slope instability, and it is assumed that landslides will occur at similar conditions to those in the past. The selected statistical method compares parametric maps with the landslide inventory map, and results are then extrapolated to the entire evaluated territory with a final product of landslide hazard or susceptibility map. Elements at risk are defined and analyzed in relation with landslide hazard, and their vulnerability is thus established. The landslide risk map presents risk scenarios and expected financial losses caused by landslides, and it utilizes prognoses and analyses arising from the landslide hazard map. However, especially the risk scenarios for future in a selected area have a significant importance, the literature generally consists of the landslide susceptibility assessment and papers which attempt to assess and construct the map of the landslide risk are not prevail. In the paper presented herein, landslide hazard and risk assessment using bivariate statistical analysis was applied in the landslide area between Hlohovec and Sered?? cities in the south-western Slovakia, and methodology for the risk assessment was explained in detail.