NASA近距离观测飓风眼发现飓风“能源”

NASA新的研究发现，飓风眼内及附近区域十分微妙的空气运动为这一“能源中心”提供动力。研究人员通过观测与模拟1998年Bonnie飓风，得到了飓风加强过程中的一系列湿暖空气块从飓风眼向眼壁强雷暴区移动的螺旋形图像。分析结果表明，过去认为并不重要的飓风眼与眼壁之间空气块的流动，是飓风加强的重要因素，并不完全符合“进-上-出”模型。     

1998年台风与飓风异常成因分析

1998年,西北太平洋台风年发生频数创下14个的谷值,打破了建国以来1951年全年生成20个台风的最低纪录。而在同年,大西洋飓风发生数目却创下了14个的近年最高纪录。本文利用NCEP/NCAR再分析等资料,分析了台风发生与越赤道气流活动异常之间的关系。发现:1998年夏季(6~9月)东半球90 E～180 区间里越赤道气流明显地偏弱,而0～90 E区间里,特别是位于40～45 E的索马里急流处,越赤道气流极强,是造成1998年南海及西北太平洋台风发生数目特少的重要原因。而1998年大西洋飓风发生数比气候平均发生数目明显偏多以及当年强烈飓风造成重大灾害的主要原因,也正是由于1998年夏季40 W及75 W处越赤道气流异常强劲所引起的。     

近100年大西洋飓风发生频次加倍

根据最新的关于北大西洋飓风和热带风暴的统计分析,目前年均飓风爆发次数比一个世纪前增加了1倍。该项研究还表明,与全球气候变化有关的海面温度(SST)升高与风场改变是飓风发生频次增加的主要原因。该文作者是美国国家气候研究中心的Greg Holland和佐治亚技术研究所的Peter Webster,刊载于2007年7月30日的Philosophical Transactions ofthe RoyalSocietyof London杂志上。分析表明,20世纪可以划分为3个时期:飓风和热带风暴的数量戏剧性的上升、保持在较高水平、相对稳定。第1个时期为1900~1930年,平均每年有6个热带风暴,其中4个是飓风,…     

近海与远洋飓风边界层特征高度的差异分析

使用1998—2016年大西洋40个飓风2 032个GPS下投式探空仪观测数据,以距离海岸线300 km为界分为近海和远洋两组,利用合成分析方法探讨了飓风边界层特征高度的差异。边界层特征高度的定义方法包括最大切向风高度、入流层高度、混合层高度和理查森数法高度。对比分析不同定义方法下近海和远洋边界层高度,结果表明：根据最大切向风和入流层强度定义的边界层高度,近海边界层高度低于远洋边界层高度,且近海边界层高度随径向增加至2倍最大风速半径后趋于稳定;基于混合层定义的边界层高度明显低于动力边界层高度,且近海与远洋混合边界层特征高度无明显差异;近海理查森数边界层高度在最大风速半径内与远洋的无明显差异,而在最大风速半径外略高于远洋的。     

NCAR科学家发现全球增暖导致2005年飓风加倍

NCAR的Kevin Trenberth和Dennis Shea的最新研究表明，2005年热带北大西洋海域的增暖是飓风增加的主要原因，其热量的一半来自全球增暖，自然循环只是次要原因。该研究发表在2007年6月27日的Geophysical Research Letters杂志上。     

飓风中的涡旋罗斯贝波

文中从柱坐标系下的正压无辐散涡度方程出发,用WKBJ方法求解方程,发现在飓风中存在类似于行星罗斯贝波的涡旋罗斯贝波,这种波的形成主要是由于飓风中基态涡度垂直分量的径向梯度所决定。利用一次飓风过程的精确数值模拟所输出高分辨的资料,计算了飓风中径向涡度梯度的分布,指出这类波动主要存在于眼墙和眼心中。波动结构分析表明,波动能量具有径向频散,这有可能是飓风暖心结构的一种形成机制。最后用波射线法讨论了定常涡旋罗斯贝波的径向频散     

江淮气旋发生发展中尺度系统特征数值模拟研究

本文应用中尺度模式MM5对发生在江淮流域的气旋进行了数值模拟，并用模式输出的高时空分辨率、动力协调资料、HUBEX试验期间的加密观测资料进行江淮气旋的中尺度诊断研究。结果表明：从大尺度角度看，江淮气旋的生成可分为静止锋上的波动和倒槽锋生两种类型，但从中尺度角度分析，它们具有如下共同特点：（1）它们的生成源地均在大别山西侧，大别山地形均使得气旋发展增强，移速减慢。（2）在发展阶段，700hPa层以下的温压场的斜压结构是气旋发展的重要因素，当冷平流与暖平流呈现西北－东南的偶极子型时，气旋发展；当冷暖平流偶极子呈东西型时，气旋发展进入成熟期。（3）气旋中的中尺度雨带与Wave-CISK湿条件对称不稳定区有密切关系，辐合上升区出现在气旋暖锋前部和冷锋后部50－100km范围内。     

我在纽约遭遇“桑迪”飓风

转眼又到了一年“台风季”,每当这时,我总会想起2012年我在纽约亲历“桑迪”飓风的情景。 飓风“桑迪”唤起我儿时的记忆 电影里有这样一个浪漫场景：女孩想看台风,男孩拿起装满水的可乐瓶旋转着摇晃,水流形成的漩涡缓缓上升,“台风”形成了……     

一条中尺度雨带的多普勒雷达回波特征及环境条件分析

该文利用3830/CC单多普勒雷达加密资料和Micaps客观分析资料, 对2002年8月22日在副高外围偏南气流影响下, 对流回波发展形成中尺度NNE — SSW向带状回波的演变及其环境条件进行分析。结果表明:带状回波是造成这次中尺度雨带的直接影响系统, 偏南暖湿气流源源不断沿着带状输送, 利于带状回波的维持和发展; 强降水主要发生在低层风随高度顺转 (暖平流)、高空有急流和出现逆风区的阶段, 副高外围偏南气流为带状回波的形成和发展提供了水汽和热力条件, 而高空倒槽为其提供了动力条件, 湿位涡的分布特征较好地说明了这一点, 带状回波和雨带出现在斜压不稳定和正压稳定而中低层为负涡度环流的潜在不稳定区中。     

初始外围尺度与加热对台风次眼墙形成的影响北大核心

台风次眼墙位于主眼墙外侧,由次对流环和低层切向风次极大值两个基本结构组成。本文通过一系列理想数值试验讨论了不同初始涡旋外围风场结构对次眼墙形成的影响作用以及关键动力学过程。结果表明,次眼墙形成的时间和位置与初始涡旋外围尺度显著相关:随着外围尺度递减,台风从形成完整双眼墙、伪双眼墙到没有双眼墙逐步过渡,次眼墙形成时间推迟且位置更加靠近台风中心。动力学分析发现,初始外围尺度可控制外雨带分布,雨带的非绝热加热主导了主眼墙外围边界层径向入流和绝对涡度径向输送的分布和大小。绝对涡度径向输送和摩擦耗散的相对大小及位置决定了次眼墙低层切向风次极大值出现的可能性和位置。动量强迫对低层切向风次极大值的大小仍有贡献。     

SIMULATED FINE STRUCTURES OF SPIRAL RAINBANDS IN TYPHOON CHANCHU (2006)

In this study, fine structures of spiral rainbands in super Typhoon Chanchu (2006) are examined using an Advanced Research Weather Research and Forecast (WRF-ARW) model simulation with the finest grid size of 2 km. Results show that the simulation reproduces well Typhoon Chanchu’s track, intensity and basic structures. According to their locations and features, spiral rainbands are classified into principal, secondary, inner and distant rainbands, and their dynamic and thermodynamic features are investigated. The principal rainbands remain quasi-stationary with respect to Chanchu’s center and exhibit a wavenumber-1 feature with their outer edges separated by dry air. The secondary rainbands that occur on the radially inward side of the principal rainbands move around Chanchu''s center. The inner rainbands are closest to the center. They propagate both radially outward and azimuthally with time. The distant rainbands are located outside the inner-core region, and have stronger and continuous updrafts compared to the other rainbands. Distant rainbands are inward-sloping with height along the radial direction and have a cold pool in the low layers, whereas the principal and secondary rainbands lean radially outward with height. The inner rainbands do not show tilting with height along the radial direction. However, there are few vertical tilting cells along the azimuthal orientation among the four types of rainbands. The simulated radar reflectivity cores in all rainbands are collocated with the maxima of updrafts and equivalent potential temperatures in the low layer, indicating the important roles of energy supply in the boundary layer in determining the development of the rainband convection.     

The Conservation of Helicity in Hurricane Andrew （1992） and the Formation of the Spiral Rainband

The characteristics of helicity in a hurricane are presented by calculating the MM5 model output in addition to theoretical analysis. It is found that helicity in a hurricane mainly depends on its horizontal component, whose magnitude is about 100 to 1000 times larger than its vertical component. It is also found that helicity is approximately conserved in the hurricane. Since the fluid has the intention to adjust the wind shear to satisfy the conservation of helicity, the horizontal vorticity is even larger than the vertical vorticity, and the three-dimensional vortices slant to the horizontal plane except in the inner eye. There are significant horizontal vortices and inhomogeneous helical flows in the hurricane. The formation of the spiral rainband is discussed by using the law of horizontal helical flows. It is closely related to the horizontal strong vortices and inhomogeneous helical flows.     

The Impact Cooling of the Storm-Induced SST on Hurricane Intensity

The effects of storm-induced sea surface temperature （SST） cooling on hurricane intensity are investigated using a 5-day cloud-resolving simulation of Hurricane Bonnie （1998）. Two sensitivity simulations are performed in which the storm-induced cooling is either ignored or shifted close to the modeled storm track. Results show marked sensitivity of the model-simulated storm intensity to the magnitude and relative position with respect to the hurricane track. It is shown that incorporation of the storm-induced cooling, with an average value of 1.3℃, causes a 25-hPa weakening of the hurricane, which is about 20 hPa per 1℃ change in SST. Shifting the SST cooling close to the storm track generates the weakest storm, accounting for about 47% reduction in the storm intensity. It is found that the storm intensity changes are well correlated with the air-sea temperature difference. The results have important implications for the use of coupled hurricane-ocean models for numerical prediction of tropical cyclones.     

Numerical Simulation of the Rapid Intensification of Hurricane Katrina(2005):Sensitivity to Boundary Layer Parameterization Schemes

Accurate forecasting of the intensity changes of hurricanes is an important yet challenging problem in numerical weather prediction. The rapid intensification of Hurricane Katrina(2005) before its landfall in the southern US is studied with the Advanced Research version of the WRF(Weather Research and Forecasting) model. The sensitivity of numerical simulations to two popular planetary boundary layer(PBL) schemes, the Mellor–Yamada–Janjic(MYJ) and the Yonsei University(YSU) schemes, is investigated. It is found that, compared with the YSU simulation, the simulation with the MYJ scheme produces better track and intensity evolution, better vortex structure, and more accurate landfall time and location. Large discrepancies(e.g.,over 10 hPa in simulated minimum sea level pressure) are found between the two simulations during the rapid intensification period. Further diagnosis indicates that stronger surface fluxes and vertical mixing in the PBL from the simulation with the MYJ scheme lead to enhanced air–sea interaction, which helps generate more realistic simulations of the rapid intensification process. Overall, the results from this study suggest that improved representation of surface fluxes and vertical mixing in the PBL is essential for accurate prediction of hurricane intensity changes.     

The Impact of the Storm-Induced SST Cooling on Hurricane Intensity

The effects of storm-induced sea surface temperature (SST) cooling on hurricane intensity are investigated using a 5-day cloud-resolving simulation of Hurricane Bonnie (1998). Two sensitivity simulations are performed in which the storm-induced cooling is either ignored or shifted close to the modeled storm track. Results show marked sensitivity of the model-simulated storm intensity to the magnitude and relative position with respect to the hurricane track. It is shown that incorporation of the storm-induced cooling, with an average value of 1.3℃, causes a 25-hPa weakening of the hurricane, which is about 20 hPa per 1℃ change in SST. Shifting the SST cooling close to the storm track generates the weakest storm, accounting for about 47% reduction in the storm intensity. It is found that the storm intensity changes are well correlated with the air-sea temperature difference. The results have important implications for the use of coupled hurricane-ocean models for numerical prediction of tropical cyclones.     

Stable Isotope Ratios: Hurricane Olivia

The oxygen and hydrogen isotopic compositions of rains from HurricaneOlivia (1994) in the eastern Pacific were measured. The rains werecollected on 24 and 25 September during airplane flights conducted at anelevation of 3 km. Hurricane Olivia peaked in intensity to a category-4storm between the two dates. Isotope ratios of rains from HurricaneOlivia were markedly lower ( ¹⁸O = –13.9to –28.8) than that of rain collected from a thunderstormat an elevation of 2.3 km outside the influence of Olivia (¹⁸O = –3.8). A distinct decrease in isotoperatios from the first day to the next ( ¹⁸O =–18.4 to –21.9) in Hurricane Olivia wasattributed to decreased updraft velocities and outflow aloft. Thisshifted the isotopic water mass balance so that fewer hydrometeors werelifted and more ice descended to flight level. A decrease in the averagedeuterium excess from the first day to the next (d = 15.5 to 7.1)was attributed to an increase in the relative humidity of the watervapor `source' area. We hypothesize that the `source' region for therain was in the boundary layer near the storm center and that becausethe hurricane was at peak intensity prior to the second day the relative humidity was higher.     

1992年Andrew飓风眼壁区倾斜上升运动发展的可能机制——非线性对流对称不稳定

在1992年Andrew飓风数值试验输出高分辨资料的中尺度扰动结构分析基础上,对眼壁区倾斜上升运动进行了动力分析,指出存在一种非线性对流-对称不稳定的发展机理.梯度风不平衡是涡旋大气中提供对称不稳定的物理基础,并用模式资料诊断研究了倾斜上升气流存在的这种发展机理的可能.     

台风“珍珠”(2006)螺旋雨带发展机制的数值模拟研究

基于2 km分辨率的ARW-WRF数值模拟资料,讨论了台风"珍珠"(2006)螺旋雨带中对流单体及内雨带的发展机制。结果表明:模式很好地再现了台风的路径和强度。作为雨带中仅仅存在于眼壁外侧的内雨带,其传播机制与重力波、涡旋Rossby波及混合波没有联系,其可能发展机制仅与低层出流、水平风场和变形场有关。低层出流使得内雨带径向向外运动,而低层的水平风场和变形场使其形成螺旋结构。同时,就螺旋雨带中精细对流单体的发展而言,涡度收支方程定量分析表明,其主要通过两种方式获得垂直涡度:水平涡度倾斜为垂直涡度;上升运动拉伸垂直涡度。随着平流输送,对流单体在眼壁附近合并和汇聚。     

Impacts of the diurnal cycle of solar radiation on spiral rainbands

Based on idealized numerical simulations, the impacts of the diurnal cycle of solar radiation on the diurnal variation of outer rainbands in a tropical cyclone are examined. It is found that cold pools associated with precipitation-driven downdrafts are essential for the growth and propagation of spiral rainbands. The downdrafts result in surface outflows, which act as a lifting mechanism to trigger the convection cell along the leading edge of the cold pools. The diurnal cycle of solar radiation may modulate the diurnal behavior of the spiral rainbands. In the daytime, shortwave radiation will suppress the outer convection and thus weaken the cold pools. Meanwhile, the limited cold pool activity leads to a strong modification of the moisture field, which in turn inhibits further convection development.